Wednesday, December 31, 2008

12/31 - 3:30pm - Come On... Give Me More Moisture!

First of all, the flurries we had this morning were unexpected because they were supposed to occur to our east. The system took a slight westward jog, so we saw some flurries and snow showers before noon. Made for a nice start to the day!

Everything still stands weather-wise from yesterday's post, except for the fact that less moisture will be present for Friday morning's dismal snow shower/flurry activity. Still looks like rain for this weekend as well.

The thing I'm watching right now is this Tuesday storm, which has gone south of us on the models. We're still getting snow, but the north end of the system is moisture-starved. Quite honestly, this is a good thing because the GFS is notorious (at least this season) for putting storms too far south and then making northward corrections just a couple days out. This happened near Thanksgiving when that storm corrected north a couple days beforehand and we saw rain. So, I wouldn't bet on snow for Tuesday yet, but I'd keep watch. I think we'll have a good idea where this thing will go by the weekend. I really hope this won't turn out to be a false positive like the other storms this year, but I'm optimistic given the fact that cooler air is on the way.

Have a wonderful New Year's Eve!

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

12/30 - 7pm - I Like What I See in the Long Range (600th Post!)

What a nice day it was! Highs in the 50s made for another Spring preview day around the region, but don't expect anymore of those for a while. As a disturbance passes well to our north tomorrow, cooler air will filter in. We won't even reach 40 degrees tomorrow, so it's time to get those heavy coats out again, just in time for New Year's Eve! A little snow is possible on Thursday night, but I'm hard pressed to find good moisture to support more a bit of snow shower activity. Any lingering moisture on Friday morning could change to rain.

The next major chance of precipitation happens on Saturday night into Sunday as a low passes to our south. This will most likely be all rain because of warm air coming up from the Gulf. There's a possibility that we could see a brief changeover to snow on the very tail end of this system, but I'm not banking on that with the current moisture allotment on the GFS.

Now, to the good stuff. Over the course of today, the GFS has had an area of low pressure tracking through Central Kentucky on Tuesday, giving us rain with a little snow on the backside. With each consecutive run of the model today (0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z), the track has been shifting eastward. The most current run, the 18z, has this low going far enough east to give us a snowstorm. While this is exciting, I still want to see a consistency before I rest on a snow solution. If the next 0z and 6z models have the track that the 18z had, then I'm game. With so much cold air coming in to the region due to a ridge developing over Greenland, it'll be interesting to see how the models handle this system this week into this weekend. In any case, get ready for the coldest air we've seen in quite some time as that Greenland ridge allows a polar vortex to drop into the Eastern US next week.

Monday, December 29, 2008

12/29 - 1pm - Now That We're Done With the Spring Preview...

If you like sunshine, you're in luck for the next few days. With high pressure dominating until at least Thursday, clouds should be few and far between. After a brief warm-up to the upper 50s tomorrow, more seasonal temperatures in the 40s will set in. I'd say that looks pretty good for New Year's Eve and Day.

A storm system will come through the area on Thursday night and exit on Friday. The potential for snow is there, but I'm not worried about it yet. Temperatures look a bit high and the amount of moisture present would be hard pressed to generate more than a few snow showers. I'm still waiting for more model runs to make sure that we won't see any more moisture, but I don't think we will.

The long range looks very interesting, with much colder weather and plenty of storms coming through the region. This will definitely be a contrast to the Spring preview we had this weekend. While I can't pinpoint exactly when and where a snowstorm will happen, I think we've at least a chance of one around here over the next two weeks. Hold on to your seats folks!

Saturday, December 27, 2008

12/27 - 6:30pm - New Video Forecast

Wow! 71 degrees was our record-breaking high today, but a cold front is on the way to squash those warm temperatures. Expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to come through tonight with a small chance of some strong storms. A Wind ADVISORY is in effect until 5am tomorrow morning. Hold on to your hats!

Friday, December 26, 2008

12/26 - 11:30am - More Wet Weather

I hope everyone had an enjoyable Christmas!

Scattered showers are moving through the area now and should be on the decrease for the next few hours. A slight chance of a shower exists for tonight, but Saturday night will be the best chance for significant rain. A line of potentially severe thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon, affecting mainly areas in Missouri and Arkansas. As the night falls and this line heads east, it should weaken and give us mostly rain with a few claps of thunder on Saturday night.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be very warm for this time of year. Today will see a high near 63 and tomorrow could go higher than 70 degrees! If we shoot past 69 tomorrow, we'll break a record.

Obviously this is not the time to be talking snow when temperatures are this high. We've been stuck with this ridge here in the southeast while a trough out west is producing cold weather and snow out there (remember when Las Vegas got snow last week?). I think we're experiencing an early version of the January thaw that many climatic forecasts back in the fall were predicting. The GFS has been pretty consistent in showing the return of cold air and at least a little bit of snow in the long range, but I'm not impressed with the strength of the trough it wants to give us. Its early to be talking specifics about any of this, but I think more seasonal weather will come back into the area in a couple weeks, if not earlier.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

12/24 - 11am - A Wet Christmas Eve

Merry Christmas Eve everyone! Heavier rain is on the way as the tail end of this system approaches the area today. A Wind ADVISORY is in effect until 4pm this afternoon as gusts up to 40mph are expected as this storm passes. As promised, Christmas Day will be dry with a high in the mid 40s.

Beyond Christmas, we could see some troubling weather. The GFS is bringing a line of severe thunderstorms (yes, you read that correctly) through the area ahead of a pretty powerful cold front on Saturday. With good shear, high dewpoints, and a potent source of lift, this could be a pretty widespread severe event. The SPC has outlined an area that will be affected by this event, which does not include us right now. We might be in there in the next outlook based upon what I'm seeing in the models, but let's see what happens.



In the long range, the return of the fabled eastern trough is imminent. We've been warm due to the southeast ridge that has dominated over the past couple weeks. If the models are correct, the return of cold air and chances for snow should arrive mid-way through the first week of January.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

12/23 - 11:30am - Freezing Rain ADVISORY

If you've been outside this morning, some of you may have noticed a light coating of sleet on your front porch or driveway. More sleet and freezing rain is on the way for this afternoon as moisture comes into the area from the west with warmer temperatures aloft. Accumulations will be light, so the National Weather Service has issued a Freezing Rain ADVISORY. Since we're already holding at around 30 degrees in Louisville, I expect any precipitation to change to plain rain later this afternoon. This should be all said and done before nightfall with few travel problems, if any. Temperatures will be heading higher during the overnight hours, so another changeover to frozen precipitation is not expected tonight.

I hate to say it, but we have nearly 2 inches of rain on the way according to the HPC. This will fall from tonight until tomorrow night, leaving Christmas Day clear and sunny. This scenario verifies on both the GFS and NAM, so I'm confident we won't see any surprise rain on Christmas morning.

Monday, December 22, 2008

12/22 - 8pm - A Little Bit of Ice on the Way

Its 11 degrees at my house now, with 19 at the airport. Other suburban stations are reporting temperatures of 12 to 14 degrees right now. That right there shows the heat island effect in action, with the concrete and buildings near the airport and downtown driving the temperature up a few degrees.

As we warm up tomorrow, we could see some freezing rain in the early afternoon. Latest indications show that this shouldn't be a problem because we will get above freezing by late afternoon, turning any frozen precipitation to rain and melting any light accumulations of ice. Rain will continue for Wednesday and should taper off late that night. Expect sunny skies and a high in the mid 40s for Christmas Day. While we can't get a white Christmas, at least it will stop raining!

Sunday, December 21, 2008

12/21 - 4pm - No White Christmas, But an Icy Tuesday?

While we won't be lucky enough to experience a white Christmas, winter weather isn't taking a break. As our rain system for Christmas Eve enters the area on Tuesday, temperatures will be below freezing. This could cause some icing issues if it doesn't warm above freezing as fast as the models say it will. I think we'll definitely see a little bit of sleet and freezing rain on Tuesday afternoon with warm air entering the upper levels, but I'm not certain how long that will last. If we warm slowly at the surface on Tuesday, we're in for an icy mess. If we warm quickly throughout the afternoon, we'll switch to liquid rain before the evening with little or no problems around the area. We'll just have to wait and see how this system treats us on Tuesday. In any case, we should be completely switched over to liquid rain by late Tuesday and into Wednesday (Christmas Eve).

Also, today is the first day of Winter! With a temperature of 22 in the city and winds making it feel even colder, it's sure making its presence known. After checking the latest runs of the GFS and NAM models, we're set for what looks to be the coldest night in quite some time. I think the Louisville Metro will see a low of 8 tonight, but the suburbs could get a couple degrees lower. Regardless of air temperature, wind chills will assuredly be below zero, so bundle up! Expect a repeat of today's weather for tomorrow, with a little less wind.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

12/20 - 5:15pm - New Video Forecast

Downright frigid temperatures are on the way once a cold front passes through late tonight. Unfortunately a ridge will build in here for Christmas, meaning our precipitation on Christmas Eve will be all rain.

Friday, December 19, 2008

12/19 - 5pm - Windy and Wild

We reached a high of 69 this afternoon, which is most certainly rare for this time of year. A Wind Advisory is currently in effect and winds gusted up to 40mph earlier this afternoon. We should see winds die down as and temperatures drop throughout the evening (we're already down over 10 degrees from where we were around 1pm).

Temperatures will top out near 50 tomorrow with a little bit of rain in the afternoon and a bit of light snow in the evening. As we dive below freezing for a high on Sunday, a few flurries are possible. We'll be below freezing for Monday as well, but we'll rise to the mid 30's for Tuesday.

The GFS is really pumping in some warm air for Christmas Eve and it looks like we'll see heavy rain. Oh no! The rain should be out of here by Christmas Day. This is far from being set in stone, but I haven't seen anything to convince me that this area of low pressure will go south and give us a white Christmas. I'll keep watching, but I'm not optimistic for snow at this point.

Meanwhile, a nasty winter storm is causing havoc in the Midwest and Northeast. Cities like Chicago and New York are having problems with cancelled flights and heavy snow... click here to read more.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

12/18 - 6pm - It's 6 Days Away, But I Can Smell Rain Already

First off, rain is on the radar and on the way. We'll see at least a few showers tonight and possibly some heavier rain early tomorrow morning and into the afternoon hours as well. Lighter rain returns for Saturday afternoon, and could end as some snow showers on the backside of the system on Sunday morning. Temperatures near 50 for Friday and Saturday should cease as the cold front comes through, with a high near 30 for Sunday. Frigid temperatures will continue for next week.

On to the elephant in the room, the possibility of snow for Christmas. The latest model runs of the GFS have been utterly disappointing with mostly rain, if not all rain, for the whole Christmas Eve system. This trend started on the 18z run last night, as I alluded to in the last post, and is rearing its ugly head in all runs today. The Louisville NWS office is unsure of what to call for in their forecast discussion in terms of precipitation type, but they do keep temperatures cold and the precipitation type as snow on their 7-day forecast. I admire how they're sticking to their guns on this one, so maybe we still have some hope. We're 6 days out and model accuracy at this point downright stinks for complex low systems like this. I'd give this some time before I lose all hope, but just know that things are on a downswing at the moment for a white Christmas.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

12/17 - 8pm - White Christmas?

We barely got above freezing today, and that happened in the wee hours of this morning! Things stayed quite cold with dreary cloud cover. Expect some fog tonight and into tomorrow morning. We should top 40 tomorrow and soar to near 60 on Friday!

By Friday, we'll see a storm system come through with a considerable amount of rain. That should exit the area by Friday night. As yet another low pressure system makes its way through north of the area, we'll see more rain for Saturday evening and into Sunday.

That system over the weekend will usher in some very cold air... you know where this is going... and could make way for a snowstorm on Christmas Eve. You may say, "but Ryan you messed up yesterday's snow prediction, how the heck can you expect to forecast snow this far out!?" The answer to that lies in the size of the storm. Yesterday's area of snow was only 20-30 miles wide, and went south of us at the very last minute. This storm will be a monster in comparison, so more areas are likely to get snow, meaning a decrease in forecasting error as well.

The 18z GFS gave us a rain event, but the 12z and the 6z all agreed that this would be a snow-centered storm. The NWS is already calling for snow in their 7-day forecast, so that gives me a little more confidence. The 18z worried me about this being a "Great Lakes Cutter," meaning a storm where the low cuts north to the Great Lakes and keeps snow west of the area. But if I recall correctly, the 18z runs have not been reliable this season, especially for yesterday's storm. So I think we can throw out that model run unless that low track comes up on the oz tonight.

In any case, we haven't had a Christmas with decent snow on the ground since 2004. If we can stay the course with a low pressure track south of us, I think we're in good shape. At this point, I'll call this a chance for snow and nothing else. I don't want to call this one too early... a busted Christmas snowstorm forecast would cause an angry mob (the city of Louisville) to come after me!

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

12/16 - 6:30pm - Was That a Hole on the Radar?

It was indeed a sad morning for snow lovers as everyone woke up to just a little bit of sleet. I recognized a trend southward trend in this storm starting around 10pm last night, but I figured it would correct itself. Add to that the fact that we had precipitation coming northeast from Owensboro that dissipated before it got here and then reformed in Oldham County. The result was what looked like a hole in the storm, right over the Louisville Metro. Both of these items led to the demise of the storm in the immediate Jefferson County area, but areas near Elizabethtown and Frankfort made out with around 4 to 5 inches of snow because of this. We only got a dusting of snow and a brief period of sleet and freezing rain last night and this morning.

We're pretty much done with this storm, with only a trace amount of freezing rain left to fall. We'll clear out the precipitation, but not the clouds tomorrow. Highs should range in the mid 30s. A round of thunderstorms could come through on Thursday night and Friday as a reinforcing shot of cold air comes in. We'll see yet another rollercoaster of temperatures for the end of the week, with 55 on Friday and then mid 40s on Saturday.

I'll keep my eyes peeled on the computer models to see if we can get any REAL snow in here, snowlovers. For those who despise the flakes, you're in luck for the next few days.

Monday, December 15, 2008

12/15 - 10pm - Winter Weather Update Video

Took a little while to finally get it uploaded, but here it is!

12/15 - 6:30pm - Snow Map

I'll make a video after dinner going over the whole situation and what my thoughts are. For now, here's a snow map:

12/15 - 4:15 - We've Just Begun - WINTER STORM WARNING

I want to express my condolences to those who expected a half day of school and did not get one today. Colder air did not filter in until this afternoon, so our rain stayed liquid. That's making the evening commute much more enjoyable, so that's definitely a good thing!

The newest NAM model (18z) is really putting down some heavy precipitation here for later tonight into early tomorrow morning. I'd say 2-4 inches of snow on top of .25" or more of ice based on what I'm seeing. In terms of school cancellations tomorrow... they are possible. They'll make a decision early tomorrow morning based on what we actually get. All I have to say is that conditions will be bad until at least the noon hour. The WINTER STORM WARNING has been extended to 7pm tomorrow night as well.

For right now... there is an area of freezing rain and/or sleet moving east from Evansville. This should hit here sometime between 5 and 6pm tonight:



Expect a majority of the snow to fall after midnight, with sleet or freezing rain possibly mixed in.
Winter Storm Warning issued, starts at 12pm today. Will post when school is over.

Sunday, December 14, 2008

12/14 - 10pm - MIXED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW

After a couple model runs, I'm convinced we'll see sleet, freezing rain, and snow tomorrow afternoon and night. The GFS and NAM both backed off on this in their 18z runs, but the brand new 0z run of the NAM has brought a majority of the precipitation back. I'm awaiting word from the NWS in Louisville as to whether we'll have an advisory issued tomorrow or a full-blown Winter Storm Warning. Either way, I still think we're in for up to .25" of ice with up to an inch of snow on top by Tuesday morning.

As far as early dismissals for schools tomorrow, I think it'll be a close call. The NWS says it'll be below 32 after 5pm, but we could see an earlier drop in temperature if this cold front accelerates. That'll be interesting to watch over the next 12 hours. For Tuesday, If we do get up to .25" of ice, I'm expecting quite a few school cancellations and delays.

12/14 - 11am - WINTER STORM WATCH

A WINTER STORM WATCH has been posted for the area for tomorrow night:
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...WITH A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW. THE MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION.

Based on the current model runs, I think we'll see rain change to freezing rain and sleet by Monday afternoon. We should see all snow by late on Monday, but the damage will be done at that point. I'm thinking a quarter inch of ice will accumulate with another half inch to an inch of snow on top of that by Tuesday morning. Travel will be very hazardous if this pans out. With regards to school delays and cancellations, I think there will be many of those Tuesday morning and a few possible early dismissals on Monday IF temperatures fall below freezing in the early to mid afternoon. We'll see how that goes.

Currently, the HPC has us on the fence between a SLIGHT and MODERATE risk for .25" of ice on Monday:

Saturday, December 13, 2008

12/13 - 8pm - New Video Forecast

I'll put this out there right now, Tuesday morning could have some major problems from this ice event. It should turn back to rain by Tuesday afternoon, but I think we're in for a messy 18 hours from Monday night until midday Tuesday. I'll post more on this later when more data becomes available.

Friday, December 12, 2008

12/12 - 8pm - Uh Oh.... Next Week Could Be Messy

I've been giving my two cents on this potential ice storm early next week for the last day or so, but I'm sorry to say that things have really gotten to a fever pitch in the last 24 hours. The GFS has been consistent, almost to the point of being scary, with this storm today. The NAM has differences in timing, temperatures, and precipitation amounts with both prior runs and the GFS. The potential playbook from the 18z GFS goes like this:

Rain creeps into the area on Sunday night and sticks around for Monday...




Cold air starts to creep into the lower levels on Monday night, producing sleet or freezing rain...




Colder air starts to filter into the upper levels as well, giving us a complete changeover to snow on early Tuesday morning, mixing with more sleet or freezing rain by the afternoon...



Then we warm up for Wednesday and we get a little more liquid rain. Sound complicated? You bet! I thought the crew at the Louisville NWS office summed it up best this afternoon:

THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL FROM 0Z TO 12Z TUES ACCORDING TO LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH THIS IN MIND...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN AT THIS TIME.

Here a couple of key things to remember: 1) We're still 3 days from the start of this system, multiple things can happen in the models. 2) A slight change in temperature in the upper levels (namely 850mb) could make this a more snow-centered event, a nasty ice storm, or mostly rain. 3) It looks like we will go way above freezing by Wednesday, so we'll only see major problems for 48 hours tops if this occurs.

I wish I could speculate on accumulations at this time, but with the uncertainty in the sleet/freezing rain department, I just can't. If we get more mixed precipitation, snow amounts will be low, but ice accumulations could be an issue. It's the same way if we flip the two. I'll go into this tomorrow on the video forecast. Hopefully the models overnight can shed some more light on this situation.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

12/11 - 4:45pm - A Mixed Bag

While we didn't see any problems with frozen precipitation last night, portions of Eastern Kentucky were issued a Winter Weather Advisory and still remain under one. We could see a little bit of drizzle or freezing rain before midnight, but I'm more concerned about temperatures diving into the 20s with possibly wet roads. Be careful out there late tonight into tomorrow morning.

With high pressure coming back into the area, our weekend is shaping up to be very nice. Saturday and Sunday should be in the mid 40's and mid 50's respectively, with some clouds. Another system will come through early next week and stick around for most of the week. This system will be mostly rain, but it has the potential to bring frozen precipitation to our area on Tuesday. I say frozen precipitation because upper air temperatures (850mb) could be a little above freezing, causing freezing rain and/or sleet. If we can stay below freezing up there, we're go for snow. Again, as always, its too early to tell and we're fairly close to the freezing line.

Even though we didn't get any snow last night, New Orleans, LA and parts of Mississippi sure did. It amazes me how far south they are to get so much snow! Up to 8 inches of snow is possible in parts of Mississippi tonight... click here for more details.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

12/10 - 7:15pm - Storm Shifting West... FREEZING RAIN

This has just come up over the last 12 hours, but the storm system I told you about yesterday is beginning to shift this way. Right now it looks like we're in for some freezing rain tonight and tomorrow morning as surface temperatures dip below freezing and upper air temps stay a little above. If this system were to shift further west or temperatures drop more, which is possible, we could be dealing with a full-on snow storm. Yikes!

Here's what got my attention earlier today:



This map shows that we're under a SLIGHT Risk for 4 or more inches of snow tonight. This area has shifted quite a bit west from last night's predictions, and there's no telling how much further we could go in the next few model runs. Here's the latest from our local NWS office:

CLEARLY WE REMAIN RIGHT ON THE FENCE WITH THIS EVENT. JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER AT THE SURFACE AND WE WOULD SEE MUCH MORE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALOFT WOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE EAST. WE WILL USE THE HWO AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WARNING BEING ISSUED LATER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

Obviously the last sentence could very well play out, even if we just get freezing rain tonight. Our surface temperature in Louisville is 36 right now, so we still need a few more degrees before we hit the magic 32.

My take on this right now is that we will see a little bit of freezing rain overnight and tomorrow morning. If we see even the slightest shift west in this system, then we're in for more than that. I'll keep a watch on it and post if anything more develops.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

12/9 - 3:45pm - Buckets of Rain!

My rain gauge is reading .91" of rain since midnight and we're not even close to being done yet. The rain has caused many traffic problems on the roadways, especially on the interstates this afternoon. Be careful if you're going out in the next few hours; the roads are wet and visibility is low. As this system exits tomorrow, we could see a little snow or sleet in the morning, so be aware of that.

The GFS is still taking a small area of moisture up through Eastern Kentucky on Thursday with some possible snow to our east. The 12z run is bugging me because it shifted this area slightly west and temperatures will be at or just below freezing during the passage of this moisture. I still think it will be too far east for this to be of any significance to us, but I'll keep my eye on later runs to see if it trends any further west.

After this little system moves through, expect some warming with highs near 50 for this weekend. We'll be even warmer next week, and I think we'll see the cold air build back in sometime before or on Christmas. December has been below normal for temperatures so far, so a week or so of some warm weather will balance this out. Patience snow lovers... we're still a little early for any heavy snow in this part of the country.

Monday, December 8, 2008

12/8 - 4pm - What a Warm Up!

We barely got above freezing yesterday, had a little freezing rain this morning, and now its 50 degrees! Wow! Temperatures are going to really ramp up as a cold front approaches on Tuesday into Wednesday, possibly up to 60 by tomorrow afternoon. I know it says 45 on the 7-day forecast at ryanweather.org, but this warm up has really been coming into the models just over the past 36 hours. What a nice treat for December!

If you're the snow-loving type, then this is not good news for you. We're going to see buckets of rain from tonight into Wednesday, possibly over 2 inches. If the system tracks north, we could see even more than that. As the rain tapers off on Wednesday, we could see a few snow showers or flurries, but that's about it.

There's an area of low pressure that will drive north from the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and its possible that we could see some snow from it. Its debatable as to whether it will go east or west of the Appalachian Mountains at this point, which will ultimately decide if we get snow. We would want it to go west in this case, but not too far west. Temperatures could also be a problem as we're going to be right on the freezing line according to the GFS. I honestly think this system will be a dud for us and go too far east, but let's see what happens.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

12/6 - 4:15pm - New Forecast Video

The snow has tapered off for the day and temperatures are now getting above freezing. Expect some rain next week, and could we get some snow next weekend? We'll see!

Friday, December 5, 2008

12/5 - 4pm - Frigid Temps Around the Area

Sorry for all the late posts this week... it's been crazy around here! I promise to have a video forecast by tomorrow afternoon. There was no video forecast last weekend due to my being out of town.

The low in Louisville Metro was 19 degrees this morning and it really did feel that cold! We're only at 29 degrees right now, so not too much increase in temperature occurred at all today. We'll stay in the 30's for the weekend, with a possible flurry or snow shower tomorrow night. We're still on track for our rain/snow mix on Monday night through Wednesday. The models are still warm on this, so I'm thinking little or no accumulation in the periods of snow that we do see during that time frame. It still looks pretty cold for the rest of next week after Thursday and well into the week after. If we're going to get some snow, I'd wager on some within that cold period sometime. Still too early to say exactly when and how.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

12/4 - 10pm - It's Cold Now and We're Just Getting Started

It is going to be downright frigid for tomorrow as our temperatures won't get much above freezing. We're still on for some snow showers on Saturday, but the big question is early next week.

There are some foreign forecast models (Euro, etc.) that have been saying we could get one mighty snowstorm on Tuesday-Wednesday, but I don't buy it. From what I see, we're going to be too warm for this. I like the local NWS office forecast of some possible snow on Tuesday night, but the rest would be rain. The low pressure track seems to be going in the right direction for us to get this "mighty" storm, but our surface temps won't cut it. Unless there's a correction in the US models that would bring in a colder batch of air, I'm going to stick with mostly rain on this one. We got burned last week when we had a storm on the GFS for us, and then it got too warm on subsequent runs. The Euro and other foreign models continued to show a snowstorm for a couple more runs than the GFS, so I'm going to assume this is a similar situation. It does concern me that the low track would indicate a good batch of precipitation and that the freezing line is not too far off, so we'll just have to watch for any changes.

Speaking of next week, get ready for some really cold air after the front associated with that Tuesday-Wednesday system goes through. Highs could struggle to get into the 30's after Thursday, so get out your big jackets if you haven't done so already! I think this cold air could support a snowstorm for us and the GFS agrees, so keep in mind that we could be dealing with accumulations after next weekend.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

12/3 - 9pm - Rain Coming Through Now, A Little Snow Later

Doppler Plus is showing the rain that's coming through the area as we speak:



As the cold front associated with this rain comes through tonight, we may have a few flurries or snow showers in the early morning hours. Little or no accumulation is expected. Watch out on the bridges and overpasses tomorrow morning as temperatures could hit or go below freezing tonight.

This front will leave us cold and dry through the weekend, with highs only in the 30s. A few sprinkles or snow showers will make their way into the area by Saturday as a clipper (low pressure from Canada) passes to our north.

Rain looks likely for Tuesday and Wednesday, with the possibility of some wet snow on the backside of this system. Too much warm air will accompany the front for any good snow, but I think we could see a brief period of snow as low pressure wraps around and heads up to the Northeast.

I've said this a few times over the last few days and I think we're starting to see the fruition of it on the models. Cold, very cold air is getting ready to sit on us from Canada and storms are ripe and ready to ride along the southern edge of that trough. The GFS is throwing major hints that we could see something late next weekend. I won't go into date or amount specifics, but with all this cold air coming and storms riding the southern edge, I'm inclined to think we could see an accumulating snow within the next couple weeks. We'll see if this can hold up on the models for the next few days.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

12/2 - 7pm - A Short Warm Up

We're in for a treat tomorrow as highs soar into the lower 50s. Rain should come into the area by nightfall and will end as a brief period of snow showers by the early morning hours. No accumulation is expected tonight. This front will really put a cap on our temperatures over the next few days, with highs in the 30s from Thursday to Sunday. A few flurries or snow showers are possible by Saturday as a clipper system passes to our north, but shouldn't pose a chance of accumulation.

Rain will again enter the forecast by Monday with highs back in the 40s. It still looks like we'll see an active pattern starting in a little over a week from now, so get ready for the drama of accumulating snow in the forecast.

Monday, December 1, 2008

12/1 - 4:30pm - A Few More Snow Showers, Meteorological Winter

Welcome to the first day of meteorological winter! Even though astronomical winter starts on December 22nd, meteorologists consider this day the start of Winter due to the winter-like weather we get in the Northern Hemisphere around this time. And boy did we get some today!

It was one of those moments in multiple classrooms across Kentuckiana where someone would suddenly shout, "It's SNOWING!!!" Much to the dismay of most, the snow did not stick because we were well below freezing when it started falling at 12:30 this afternoon in the downtown area. What appears to be the last batch of snow showers is coming out of Indiana as we speak and they should arrive in the next hour or so. We're still at 36 degrees, so even a dusting looks out of the question at this point. I thought we would've at least seen a coating of snow on the grass this morning in the Metro, but the temperature only bottomed out at 35.

If you don't like the cold air that came with this system, don't worry. We'll warm up into the lower 40's tomorrow and shoot for lower 50's on Wednesday with some rain. That rain could end as a period of snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We'll drop back into the 30's for Thursday and into the weekend as well. A few snow showers could be around for Saturday and Sunday as a clipper system passes to our north.

Stay tuned... we're going into an active pattern starting next week. Too early to predict any one storm at the moment, but I think we'll have our hands full for the next few weeks trying to decipher the track of each.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

11/30 - A Mix of Rain and Snow

With temperatures reaching into the mid 40s today, I'm not real optimistic about snow accumulation tonight as rain changes over to all snow. We might not even get below freezing tonight, so I doubt we'll see any accumulation of snow or ice on the roads. Bear in mind that bridges and overpasses could still have some slick spots tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon as temperatures drop.

Overall, expect from a dusting to an inch of snow on the grass by tomorrow and a few possible travel issues for the morning and afternoon commutes. After a high near 40 on Tuesday, temperatures will rise to about 50 degrees on Wednesday. Unfortunately, a reinforcing shot of cold air arrives by Thursday. That will send highs into the upper 30's for the rest of the week, not to mention a few snow showers that could accompany it.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

11/25 - 10:15pm - Not Much Snow

I'm sorry to say that my previous estimate of 2 inches of snow for Monday is a stretch at this point. The models have shifted north and west with the low pressure track over the last 24 hours, and thus our snow chances have dwindled. I'd say we're lucky if we get an inch on the grass by Monday evening due to higher than expected temperatures. We should see mostly rain on Sunday, which will change to snow by the evening. I think we could have some minor issues with the Monday morning commute, especially on highways and overpasses.

Snow lovers... do not lose hope! It is still very early in the season and we have many more snow chances to come! Speaking of which, we could see something Thursday into Friday. I'm not real sure right now because of the track of the storm on the current model runs, but we'll see. I'll talk about that later if it stays on the models.

Friday, November 28, 2008

11/28 - 1:45pm - Still Looking at Some Snow!

The latest models aren't as optimistic as they were on Wednesday evening when I last posted, but we haven't lost our snow completely. The GFS trended east with the storm yesterday, but the track has trended a bit westward in the latest runs. The NAM is in fair agreement with the GFS on this, so I think we could squeeze out a couple inches of snow. We could see some rain during the day on Sunday due to warmer temperatures, which would bring down snow totals. Even if that were to happen, it would still snow on Sunday night and Monday. In any case, I'm going to go with my prediction of around or above 2" of snow by Monday.

This storm is still evolving and there are still issues to be dealt with before it gets here. One issue is that a low from the Southwestern US and a low Canada could phase together in a variety of ways. Until this phasing occurs, no model or human being can really give a straight answer as to what this storm will do. So we'll just have to keep our eye on the models and see if there are any major shifts in the next day or so. I will say that a shift like this in the models is not unlikely given that we still have 48 hours before the system comes through.

I hope that everyone had an enjoyable Thanksgiving!

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

11/26 - 7pm - Now We're on to Something!

I wrote yesterday that the models were not in good agreement with each other for a potential system late weekend into early next week. The GFS had a strange looking trough and the DGEX didn't know what to do. Fast forward 27 hours and look what happened:



Yikes! The GFS and DGEX both agree on a snowstorm solution for Monday, with Louisville, Evansville, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis right in the crosshairs. The NAM doesn't go out far enough in time to see the storm, but the right components are on the model for development 84 hours from now. I don't even want to talk about accumulations yet... the models have varied wildly over the last 24 hours. What I will say is that I've seen a general increase in moisture in the models since yesterday, so keep your fingers crossed!

Obviously I want to express a word of caution before you grab your snow cream recipes and snow shovels. This storm is still 5 days out and much can change in that time period. If the low pressure associated with this system decides to go east of the Appalachians, that could mean less snow. If the low goes any further west of where its forecast to go now, we could see rain and mixed precipitation. BUT... the fact that model agreement is fairly decent at the moment makes me more optimistic that we could be dealing with a snowstorm here Sunday night into Monday.

I'll be out of town for the Thanksgiving weekend (whew... not going to miss the potential storm), but I'll have internet access while I'm gone. If anything happens with the models, I'll be sure to post. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

11/25 - 4:45 pm - Not Sure What to Make of This Pattern

The GFS has been an utter mess over the last couple days. Its been bringing in storms, loosing them, and disagreeing with itself and other models. I must say I'm not the only one being driven crazy by this! The 12z run has nothing but cold air and mostly dry conditions. The DGEX is fairing the same way at the moment as well. With both of these, the trough that will form across much of the US this weekend and into early next week is situated oddly, making me suspicious that the model is not handling the setup well. We'll have to see what comes our way early next week if anything at all. There's moisture and cold air, but the moisture is south of here and the cold air is over us. There's a possibility we could see a surprising shift in the models as we get closer to time.

The possible snow on Friday has pretty much evaporated from the models, but a slight chance for a small shower is still in the works. Thanksgiving still looks warm, with a high near 52!

Monday, November 24, 2008

11/24 - 4pm - Something Could Be Lurking in the Models

My rain gauge reads .66" of rain since midnight, which seems reasonable given how heavy the rain was early this morning. The good news is that it's out of here, but unfortunately temperatures will stay in the 40's for the remainder of the week. Tomorrow will be the coldest day, with a high that will struggle to reach 40. A high of 50 is not out of the question for Thanksgiving, but it's difficult to tell what might happen this weekend temperature-wise.

What I mean is that some of the models are showing a snowstorm for this Friday and into the weekend. The GFS is really not picking up on this and suppressing the associated low to the south. It also shows warmer air in here that the other models do not favor. The Canadian in particular has the low tracking south of us and then cutting up through Eastern Kentucky, which would be a classic snow solution for us. The DGEX is a little more aggressive with the cold air and precipitation than the GFS, but still nowhere near models like the Canadian.

At this point we just need to sit back and wait. I'd say the chances of a storm actually playing out this weekend are fairly small, but a little snow on the backside of a rain system would make more sense to me. The Louisville NWS isn't jumping on any bandwagon and calling for mostly rain with a possible period of snow or mix if the models trend colder. I think that's a pretty sound forecast given the great uncertainty, so I'll go with that for now.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

11/22 - 6pm - New Forecast Video

A few more chilly days before we warm up slightly for Thanksgiving.



I'm introducing Ryan Weather DOPPLER Plus today, which is a high-resolution radar feed for the website. It's powered by StormLab and can be accessed on the Ryan Weather homepage.

Friday, November 21, 2008

11/21 - 4pm - Messy Long Range

As advertised, the temperature reached a frigid 36 degrees this afternoon for a high. Temperatures will really take a plunge tonight as cloud cover diminishes and high pressure comes into play. Expect a low in the upper teens in the city, with lower teens possible in the outlying areas. Gulf moisture coupled with a low sinking southward from Canada will create some rain for Monday, up to .25" by the HPC's estimates. Things should calm down for for the rest of next week, with temperatures topping out in the 40's and maybe even 50's for Thanksgiving! Expect more rain for Friday and into next weekend.

Looking ahead to the long range shows a very disturbed pattern as we head into December. Multiple disturbances will come through the first week and a possible cold spell could come through the next. With all the storms projected to come through and possible freezing temperatures, I'm eying the second week of December right now for a possible accumulating snow. Nothing tangible has really come out of the GFS yet, but the pattern suggests we could be in for a snow event:



Interestingly enough, this loosely coincides with the winter predictions I gave a few weeks ago. We should see more assurance of this late next week in the models if everything works out. This could be an interesting start to winter!

By the way, here's a link to NOAA's Winter Outlook that was released today.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

11/20 - 8:45pm - Now That's Snow!

That was what I call a real first snow! The flurries began this afternoon at around 4pm downtown and are still going on in some areas right now. Visibility dropped a little bit as heavier batches of flurries came through. As I drove by the airport this afternoon on I-65 it was very difficult to see the UPS hub or the terminal with all the snow. We got a dusting on the grass at my house, so things definitely look winter-like here! The radar shows a few more flurries coming at us from Southwestern Indiana, but nothing heavy at all. A few slick spots could develop overnight as temperatures dive below freezing, but I really don't expect any big issues tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow's high temperature will be 36, so bundle up! Temperatures will ease into the 40's for the weekend with some rain expected for Sunday night into Monday.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

11/19 - 7pm - Cold Enough??

I awoke to a very startling number on my thermometer this morning, 15.5 degrees. Lows in Louisville were in the mid 20's, but once you got out of the city temperatures nosedived. Another cold night is on tap with a low just below freezing in the city and even lower temperatures in the suburbs and rural areas. Tomorrow will be a repeat of today, except we'll see a high near 43 instead of 48 for today. Friday will be the real wake-up call for the upcoming winter: a few clouds with a high near 36.

Looks like rain will be the main story for early next week as a reinforcing cold front comes through. The HPC is calling for between .1" and .25" on the QPF at this point and the models seem to be in agreement with that. Could squeeze out a flurry or two on the backside of this system.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

11/18 - 5:15pm - Can You Say Wind Chill?

It was bitterly cold this morning to begin with, but once you stepped out into the wind it was just frigid! Our temperature now is 37 degrees, but our windchill is at 31 right now. Compare that to 30 degrees this morning and a wind chill in the upper teens to lower 20s. Yikes!

Tomorrow will have an improvement in temperature, with a high just shy of 50. Thursday could actually see some of the flurries I talked about on Saturday as a low pressure system passes to our northeast. That system will bring colder air to our neck of the woods for Friday, so expect a high of 40 then. Some light rain, mixing with a pinch of snow by Monday, will be possible for the weekend.

My discussion yesterday on the storm that disappeared from the GFS is still valid. We should know by tomorrow or Thursday if this storm is really hiding from the models or not. I will note that the current GFS run does take a smaller version the fabled storm from the Pacific Northwest through the Plains, but it falls apart completely before it gets here. Chances are pretty small that this thing will reappear, but it needs to be watched for.

Monday, November 17, 2008

11/17 - 7:15pm - A Bit Chilly Don't You Think?

Today's high of 43 was a shrill reminder of the winter months to come! We had some flurries flying around this morning in some areas along with some this afternoon. Any and all flurry activity should cease by tonight, leading the way for a few clouds and a high struggling to reach 40 by tomorrow. Temperatures will moderate a bit for the rest of this week, but we should stay below 50. The next chance of some light precipitation will happen late this weekend and into early next week.

For all you snow-lovers... the storm I talked about on Thursday (scroll down two posts) came back on the models yesterday in an altered form, prompting much excitement from the online weather-geek base. The storm has disappeared off the models today, but some schools of thought think that this might be a normal part of the GFS model, particularly blogger Henry Margusity at AccuWeather. What I mean is that storms in the long range disappear in the medium range (3-5 days out) and then reappear just a couple days before they happen. This happened to us this past March when that storm disappeared 4-5 days out and then reappeared just a little over 48 hours before the storm started. I'm not forecasting a snowstorm or wish-casting here, just putting it out there that we need to be vigilant when looking at the models this time of year. Big storms that disappear a few days out will need to be watched for in case they come back.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

11/13 - 5:30pm - Oh Dear, Is It Time for the GFS Blizzards to Start?

Yep, you guessed it! The GFS has a blizzard on it for the 23rd of November:



The "storm" gives MO, IL, and IN a large amount of snow, with a little less on the backside for us due to the position of the low. The blizzard was on the model Tuesday for a different date, but of course the weather world went nuts as this came out today. Obviously this is ten days out, but its something to wish for. They don't call it "wishcasting" for nothing! But seriously, if this thing can be reproduced on later runs then we might have a big storm to deal with. I'm not going put any sort validity on this storm until I see way more proof of its existence in the forecast.

It actually wasn't too bad of a day was it? The sun came out and temperatures actually breached 60! The rain machine will turn on again tomorrow afternoon and continue until Saturday, when snow showers will come into the area as the temperature drops in the afternoon and evening. By Sunday morning we could have a dusting on the grass, but I now think that temperatures might be too warm for any road problems, which would have been small to begin with. That's good news! A fridgid week ensues after this system passes. Look for highs in the...drumroll please...40s.

***UPDATE: The storm is on the 18z GFS run too, but it is weaker. We still get quite a bit of snow if this works out!

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

11/12 - 9pm - Dreary Weather

I don't think I saw the sun come out today! This dreary weather will stick around until Sunday after this upper level low passes, with the cold weather sticking around even after that. We're in for more rain tonight, but it'll taper off tomorrow and then restart Friday afternoon. The rain will continue Saturday and then change to snow showers on Saturday night as the temperature falls below freezing. We're forecast to be in the upper 20's at night in the Metro area, so there could be some slick spots as the wet roads freeze overnight Saturday and into Sunday. My thinking is that we could have a light coating of snow on the grass, especially in the suburbs, if the temperature does fall into the 20s. We'll see about that!

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

11/11 - 8pm - Yep, Snow This Weekend!

(sorry for the late post... I was out of the house for my 18th birthday today)

It's been pretty consistent on the models for quite a while now, so I'm definitely on the bandwagon for some snow this weekend. While it won't really stick to the ground, I'll venture to say that Saturday night will definitely be our "official" first snow in the area as snow showers (yeah, I'm going to call them showers I suppose) come into the area. Lows on Saturday will be near the freezing line so there could be some slick spots on the road as the rain from previous hours freezes. I wouldn't worry too much about this because our temperatures will be close to freezing, but outlying areas could have a few issues.

We're still on track for around 1.5" of rain this week as this upper-level low meanders through the region. Not much rain around here tonight, but it should restart tomorrow afternoon and be fairly steady until Friday afternoon. We'll get back into the 50's tomorrow with upper 50's on Thursday and Friday. Saturday and Sunday look downright cold, with highs struggling to reach 40!

Monday, November 10, 2008

11/10 - 4:30pm - Did Someone Say Snow Showers?

I've been watching the GFS over the last few runs as it has moved some snow in here for Saturday night. The NWS is calling for snow showers, but I think that may be too strong of a term based on the amount of moisture that is possible. If the models start giving us more moisture in later runs I'll say snow showers, but for now I'm going to stick with flurries for Saturday night and even into Sunday.

Until then we have some rain to deal with, and a lot of it! The HPC is putting our 5-day rain total at just under 1.5". This will come from two low pressure systems, one passing to the south and the next passing to our north. The rain will start early tomorrow morning and continue until Saturday night. Whatever is left on the backside of the second low will fall as flurries on Sunday morning and a cold rain with possible embedded snowflakes on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will hold below 40 for a high on Sunday, so there are definitely the right parameters for some snow. While it won't stick to the ground, it'll at least be a nice reminder of the winter still to come (if you like snow).

Saturday, November 8, 2008

11/8 - 3pm - New Forecast Video

Looks like a cooler week ahead with some good rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.

Friday, November 7, 2008

11/7 - 4:30pm - Cooler Week Ahead, Hurricane Paloma

A cooler weekend and week lies ahead due to the passage of a cold front today. Highs will struggle to reach 50 around the area tomorrow with the same story playing out for Sunday. Looks like we'll stay in the 50's next week with plenty of rain chances. Also, the GFS model has flurries in the forecast for sometime around the 19th or so. This is still way out, but we're getting to the time of year where snow flurries are a real possibility.

Its late in the season, but Hurricane Paloma has been making headlines in the Caribbean as a Category 2 storm. It looks like it will weaken a bit and then cut through Cuba this weekend:

Thursday, November 6, 2008

11/6 - 4:30pm - Here Comes the Rain!

A line of rain is moving this way for tonight. Looks like some thunderstorms will be embedded, so a few rumbles of thunder and some lightning are possible. The HPC is calling for around .25" of rain for tonight, which should end before daybreak tomorrow. The front associated with this rain will certainly cool things down. Look for a high near 65 tomorrow and then upper 50's for the weekend and into next week.

Speaking of which, next week looks to be rainy throughout. A couple of systems coming through could give us quite a bit of rain. The first rain system should be making its way through by Tuesday, which unfortunately corresponds with my birthday. After a couple days of off and on rain, the next system will come through by the end of the week. According to the GFS, this could be a heavy rain maker, so be ready for that!

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

11/5 - 8:30pm - Wild West Weather, WAVE Visits My School

A well-advertised cold front is sweeping through the Plains, bringing with it Blizzard Warnings in the Dakotas and a Tornado Watch in Oklahoma and Kansas. This same front will come through here Thursday night, but with much less effect. We should see rain mixed with some lightning throughout Thursday night before a clearing on Friday morning. What you'll really notice is the drop in temperature, from mid 70s tomorrow to lower 60s on Friday and then 50 degrees for a high on Saturday. 50s will dominate the weekend and most of next week, if not all.

We received a pleasant surprise in my government and politics class today as WAVE TV's David McArthur came by to get some reaction from yesterday's election. You can see the whole piece that the station put together here. (I'm in the orange shirt from 1:04 - 1:28)

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

11/4 - 2pm - Get Outside and Vote!

I'm still in disbelief that I'm staring at a 74 degree reading on my thermometer right now. I can remember wearing heavy jackets and gloves on election day back in 2006, so this is definitely not average weather for us. Enjoy it while you can because we'll see a 20 degree drop in high temperatures after a cold front comes through on Thursday night with some storms. It doesn't look like anything severe will occur at this point, so just some rain, wind, and lightning expected.

This cartoon in the Courier-Journal Op-Ed section made me chuckle this morning:



At least I'm not the only one that thinks this is unseasonably warm weather! But seriously folks, go out there and vote this afternoon if you can. The polls close at 6pm this evening.

Monday, November 3, 2008

11/3 - 7pm - A Great Looking Election Day!

After a pristine day around the area, we're on track for a repeat tomorrow. With sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 70s, weather won't hold anyone back from voting, so get out there and cast your ballot!

I'm monitoring a chance for some severe weather on Thursday night as a cold front comes through. The SPC doesn't have us in a severe weather area yet, but that could change tomorrow morning. More on this tomorrow and Wednesday.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

11/1 - 9:40pm - Winter Forecast Video

Here's the winter forecast video I promised! It took a while to finally get it on the site, but it's there! Expect warm temperatures next week and a sizable cool down before next weekend. Don't forget to set your clocks back 1 hour tonight!

Friday, October 31, 2008

10/31 - 6:15pm - Happy Halloween!

I hope everyone has a great Halloween this evening! As you and the little ones scatter about the neighborhood tonight, not a bit of precipitation will fall and we should be in the 50's and 60's for most of the night.

The weekend and most of next week looks just as good, with temperatures still in the lower 70's and a chance of rain late in the week. Temperatures will tumble into the 50's by Friday as a potent cold front sweeps through. Enjoy the warm weather while you can!

Tomorrow evening I'll put out a special winter-weather preview forecast video. I'll go over various winter forecasts from the government, commercial outlets, and even the almanacs! Taking all this information into account plus more background data, I'll also give my two cents on what I think will happen. Should be a lot of fun!

Thursday, October 30, 2008

10/30 - 8pm - 70s are BACK!

After some chilly weather this week, upper 60s and even lower 70s are making a comeback in the forecast! Expect us to top out at 70 tomorrow with sunny skies. Highs around 68-72 should hold for the weekend and well into next week. The change up will occur late next week as a cold front sweeps through the east and wipes out our 70s. Rain chances should head upward as this front passes as well.

The Halloween forecast for tomorrow looks spook-tacular, with dry conditions and that 70 degree high I talked about.

The first October snow since 1934 has hit London, England... click here. This begs the question: How wild will our winter be? Find out on Saturday evening when I present a special winter-preview forecast video!

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

10/29 - 5:30pm - Shaking Off the Cold

We got down to a low of 34 in the city this morning, just shy of the freezing mark. Temperatures fell into the 20's in the suburbs. It'll be cold again tonight, but not as cold as what we saw last night. Temperatures will creep back into the 60's tomorrow, with upper 60's and maybe even 70 for the weekend and even into next week! Next rain chance will be sometime around November 6th, so don't worry about any precipitation ruining Halloween.

With snow in the Northeast, we're sure lucky to have such nice weather! We'll eventually get our snow, just not this early. On that note, I'm planning to have some long-range winter forecasts on my video this Saturday, so stay tuned for that!

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

10/28 - 4:30pm - Freeze!

The NWS is pulling out all the stops by issuing a Freeze WARNING for the area tonight. The low in the city should bottom out at just below 32, but again, the outer suburbs and rural areas will experience an even deeper freeze. With clearing skies tonight into tomorrow morning, I think we will definitely get below freezing in the suburbs. The city is close at this point, but I think the temperature will dip low enough tonight.

Things will improve to the upper 50's tomorrow, with a low in the upper 30's for Thursday morning. We'll see lower 60's for Thursday and a gorgeous day in the upper 60's for Halloween. How about that! Looks like we'll keep the upper 60's around next week, as I promised in the forecast on Saturday, and possibly touch 70. Still not a drop of rain to be found until at least the second week of November!

Monday, October 27, 2008

10/27 - 8pm - Wind, Sleet, and Cold Temperatures

There have been calls in to various news outlets around town of sleet falling this afternoon and evening. With surface temperatures in the upper 40's and well below freezing at the upper levels, this is certainly feasible. I saw a few rain drops today, but no sleet in my neck of the woods.

Winds were a problem last night as the cold front came through, causing a very small amount of homes to lose power. I peeked at our anemometer display at around 11pm and it recorded a gust of 44 mph!

The Freeze WATCH is still on for early tomorrow morning, but with the current cloud cover I think we might make it out of the woods just above freezing. Rural areas might make it below freezing, but we'll see. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be the coldest of this well-advertised chill. Downtown will probably drop below freezing along with the almost certain freeze in the suburbs. Things should warm up a few degrees for Thursday morning.

Still no moisture to talk about in the forecast, but temperatures will be making a return to the warmer side of things. After a chilly high of around 46 tomorrow, expect temperatures to rise to the mid 50's on Wednesday. Lower 60's will dominate for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Keep the gloves and jackets handy the next couple mornings!

Sunday, October 26, 2008

10/26 - 6pm - Freeze WATCH

While many of us in outer suburbs and rural areas have already experienced temperatures below freezing this month, it's finally time for everybody to get a freeze. Most of the city will stay just above freezing at 35 degrees tonight. Outer suburbs and rural areas will assuredly fall below freezing tonight.

Tomorrow night is when everybody will fall below freezing, prompting the NWS to issue a Freeze WATCH for the area. Tuesday night will have about the same low temperature, but Wednesday night will be a little warmer, limiting the freezing temperatures to areas away from the city. Highs will hover around 50 for the next couple of days with no rain in sight.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

10/25 - 4pm - New Forecast Video

It looks like there won't be any flurries on Monday morning due to a lack of moisture. Nevertheless, it will be very cold for several mornings next week.

Friday, October 24, 2008

10/24 - 5pm - Drying Out

It's been a dreary, wet day for the area as over an inch of rain fell. We received .92" of rain here, but readings of over an inch have been recorded in town and at the airport. Its safe to say that this is the last rain we'll see for quite a while, as the models all show a dry week ahead with high pressure in control. Looks dry for the week after as well at this point.

We're still on track for the flurries on Monday morning. The NAM doesn't have the moisture like yesterday, but at least the temperatures are markedly colder than yesterday's runs for Monday morning. The GFS is staying fairly consistent with temperature, but it's been off and on with moisture on the last few runs. Either way, we'll have cold mornings next week and the possibility of some flurries early Monday morning.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

10/23 - 7:30pm - Bring the Umbrella Along!

Tomorrow is the day that you will need the umbrella. Rain from a cold front to our west will overspread the area tonight and last into tomorrow evening. It should be all said and done by early evening tomorrow, with over an inch of rain expected around the area according to the HPC. I hope everyone enjoyed the high of 73 today, because tomorrow will only reach into the mid 50's. We'll recover to near 60 by Sunday, but it looks downhill after that. Temperatures will stay in the lower to middle 50's for next week, with possible 40 degree temperatures looming the week after.

All the hoopla about some snow flurries next week that I talked about is apparently looking more and more valid. The GFS is showing very cold mornings in the 30's on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week. With a small chunk of moisture coming through on Monday morning, it looks as though we will actually get a few flurries around the area. It will be too warm for any accumulation, but temperatures aloft will definitely be cold enough to generate snow. The NAM has even more moisture than the GFS on Monday morning, but it doesn't have any snow due to higher temperatures on that model. The DGEX model looks like the NAM, but temperatures are cold enough to support snow. I'm disregarding the amount of snow on these models at this point because a couple of them look too high, but we'll see. There may be additional flurries on Tuesday or Wednesday morning as well, but we'll have to wait for additional model runs. At any rate, there will not be any accumulation. At least its fun to think about!

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

10/21 - 6pm - Frost?

It looks like areas outside of Downtown Louisville and the large suburbs will see a frost tonight, especially east of town. Since I live in a valley in a rural part of Jefferson County (yes, there is a rural part), we'll probably get some frost. This goes for Fisherville, parts of Middletown and Eastwood as well. We'll hit 60 tomorrow and be in the upper 60's for Thursday. The rain starts Friday and will stay around until Saturday night, with amounts of an inch or higher once its all said and done. We'll be in the 50's this weekend and for much if not all of next week.

No snowflakes on the last few runs of the GFS for next week, but it will still be very cold in the mornings. Expect lows to be at or just below freezing a few days next week.

Monday, October 20, 2008

10/20 - 5pm - Don't Get Used to This!

It's 70 degrees right now, but enjoy it while you can! Highs will be dipping into the low 60's for the remainder of the week with upper 50's possible for the weekend. The rain for late Thursday into early Saturday is still on track, and rain totals look pretty high compared to what we've seen lately. After that, we're dry until Tuesday.

At that point a low should swing through the Great Lakes and with it comes some frigid air on the backside. The 6z and 12z GFS models today both show the same flurries I talked about yesterday for next Wednesday morning. As we get closer to time next week I think we'll be able to pin down whether or not this will actually happen. Its just too far away right now to really see what will occur, especially since model precision is very low at 204 hours out. Who knows? Maybe we'll actually get some flurries in late October!

Sunday, October 19, 2008

10/19 - 7:30pm - Snowflakes on the GFS!?

I just about fell out of my seat when I saw the 12z GFS this afternoon. While the 18z run took them away, the 12z had some snowflakes in the forecast for us! Obviously next Tuesday into Wednesday is quite a ways away, and this is probably just a rogue model run at this point. It also had Tuesday morning and Thursday morning as having some flakes as well, but just not as prominently as Wednesday morning. I know this is just a "snow-dream" at this point, but isn't it fun to think about?



Back in the real weather world... It looks like we could see some highs in the 50's on Friday and Saturday after a week generally in the 60's. Tomorrow will be an improvement over today in terms of temperatures, with a high possibly touching or going just above 70 degrees. We're still on track for the late week rain that I talked about yesterday as well.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

10/18 - 12:30pm - New Video Forecast

Looks like a pretty chilly week ahead with a good chance of rain late week.

Friday, October 17, 2008

10/17 - 8:30pm - Quite Chilly!

Sorry about not posting yesterday... one of those heavy homework days.

I just can't believe how fast we went from being warm to downright chilly! I donned my first pair of bluejeans for the season and boy did I need them. We'll stay in the 60's all next week, save for a possible 70's high early in the week. The next chance of any appreciable rain will occur late next week with a decent-sized low pressure area ramming through the Midwest.

With all this cool weather, who's ready for snow? It's hard to imagine now, but we're a little over a month away from seeing our possible first flakes and a couple months from measurable snow. Here's a useful map on the average dates of the first measurable snow in Kentucky each year:


From the Kentucky Climate Center at WKU.

Don't forget that you can sign up for severe weather e-mail alerts at http://ryanweather.org/severe.html. These e-mails also include notification of when I post video updates for winter weather situations as well (click here for a sample), so sign up today!

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

10/15 - 4pm - Storms on Radar, Omar Strengthens

Our rain for tonight is pushing through Missouri right now and on its way. We'll see rain tonight and tomorrow morning, with a few claps of thunder here and there. After its all said and done, this system will leave us in the 60's for the rest of the week and this weekend. The dry weather will recommence as well.

Hurricane Omar strengthened quite a bit more than expected and will now hit the Virgin Islands head-on as a possible Category 2 storm. It won't pose a threat to land after it exists the Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands corridor, but this sudden strengthening was a bit of a surprise.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

10/14 - 4:30pm - Rain Chances, TS Omar

I was surprised to see that the NAM took our rain chances and ran with them, so it looks like we'll have a pretty good chance of rain on late Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS is not as aggressive, but nevertheless is a little more optimistic than yesterday. The HPC is calling for around a quarter of an inch of rain, so not too much rain for the places that still need it. Say goodbye to the 80 degree weather after tomorrow!

Tropical Storm Omar has just been named, south of Puerto Rico. It will become a hurricane, but it will only affect the Caribbean as a weak hurricane. The forecast track takes it over the Mid-Atlantic, so no big problems after it exits the Caribbean:



Tropical Depression 16 has formed south of the Yucatan Peninsula (the area I talked about yesterday), but it expected to quickly head west into Mexico as a tropical storm.

Monday, October 13, 2008

10/13 - 8pm - Here Comes the Cool Down!

More pleasant weather is on the way for tomorrow, with some clouds and 85 degrees. A small chance of rain creeps into the forecast for what now looks like Wednesday through Friday, with highs in the 60's by Friday after a gradual cool-down. With high pressure becoming the dominant feature, this weekend should be sunny with highs in the upper 60's.

Tropical Depression Nana is spinning in the Atlantic with winds at 35mph. Its not expected to affect land and will most likely die out this week. An area of disturbed weather south of Cuba could become a tropical depression within the next couple of days and head northward. We'll keep an eye on that in case it wants to become a late-season storm. Hurricane season officially ends November 30th.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

10/12 - 7:15pm - Still Warm, NWA is in Town!

I still can't believe how warm it is right now. We'll be in the mid 80's until Tuesday it now looks like with the chance of showers on Wednesday still on. Our storm chance on Friday has all but fallen off the computer models, so I think we'll actually be dry on Friday now with a small chance of a passing shower. Get ready for 60's and 70's late week after a few days of cooling.

The National Weather Association is holding their annual meeting in Louisville this week. Hundreds of meteorologists from around the nation have descended upon Louisville, including The Weather Channel's Dr. Greg Forbes, WGN's Tom Skilling, Good Morning America's Sam Champion, and many more. John Gordon, the head of Louisville's NWS office, is the chairperson for this year.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

10/11 - 12pm - New Forecast Video

Looks like a pretty warm week ahead with a couple shots of rain thrown in.

Friday, October 10, 2008

10/10 - 4:15pm - Warm Weather Continues

I am in disbelief that its 82 degrees outside in the middle of October. We're even going to reach into the mid 80's this weekend and even into Monday. We'll see more seasonable temperatures by Tuesday with the return of the 70's and maybe 60's midweek. A chance of rain still exists from Tuesday into Wednesday.

Big snowstorm in the Rockies today and into the weekend... click here.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

10/9 - 4:30pm - Foggy!

It was surreal getting out of bed this morning and not being able to see the house across the street. The fog that developed last night stayed around until mid morning in some locations. There's only a few instances where I can remember fog being that thick at my house, so this was definitely out of the ordinary.

Temperatures are still expected to soar into the mid 80's by Sunday with a cool-down into the 70's expected by early next week. There's still a chance of showers in the forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The website is now working after being unreachable yesterday for a majority of the day. Hopefully the servers at my hosting service will stay afloat for a while.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

10/8 - 7:15pm - Back in Town, Website Down

I checked my site and blog a couple times during my vacation to make sure they were in working condition. To my horror, my website was out when I got home from school this afternoon! After checking around, I found out that my hosting service is experiencing a miniature crisis with servers down at the moment. They're saying the problem should be fixed very soon. Let's hope so!

In other news, we've seen quite a bit of rain today. My gauge at home shows .63" of rain since midnight, with likely higher amounts around the area. Fog will be a problem tonight and early tomorrow morning with all this moist air dropping in temperature. We will soar into the 80's for the weekend after a day in the upper 70's tomorrow. A cool down to more seasonable temperatures will occur by early next week with a chance of rain thrown in late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Bundle up folks... If AccuWeather's just-released Winter forecast is right, we're in for a frigid few months... click here.

Also, Henry Margusity at AccuWeather has released his own Winter forecast with maps... click here.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

10/1 - 7:15pm - Cool Temperatures, Then a Warm Up?

With the month of October now in full-swing, it's expected that we'll have temperatures in the 60's and 70's. That will be true for Thursday and Friday, but we will see the return of lower 80's by Sunday and through the middle of next week. I'm thinking this could be our last batch of 80 degree temperatures for the year, so enjoy it while you can. Not a drop of rain is in the forecast for the next week.

I'm off to Florida until next Wednesday, so no blog posts or site updates until then. See you later!

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

9/30 - 4pm - Now, Where Were We?

The HPC nailed the rain total estimates last night. They were calling for around .25" in Louisville and my rain gauge shows .21" from overnight. That's pretty close!

We're back to our old dry pattern again, this time with highs in the 60's and 70's. We'll be in the mid 60's tomorrow, upper 60's on Thursday, and then back into the 70's for the weekend. No rain chances until at least the middle of next week. On that note, there will be no blog posts or site updates from this Thursday until Wednesday of next week due to my fall vacation.

Monday, September 29, 2008

9/29 - 7pm - RAIN!!!

Was that title loud enough? We've got rain, actual rain, on the radar right now heading toward us! This system is still maturing, so its unknown how much rain we'll get exactly. Looking at guidance from the HPC suggests around a quarter of an inch. We'll still have drought problems even after this system comes through. The good part is that we'll end the streak of dry days over the past few weeks, helping some of the plants out that are still flowering. Not to mention the brown grass on everyone's lawn...

We should be dry tomorrow as this system exits late tonight. Temperatures will position themselves in the 60's and 70's over the next week with sunny skies to complement by Thursday.

Hurricane Kyle is history after hitting Nova Scotia. Subtropical Storm (no tropical characteristics) Laura has formed in the Atlantic, luckily with no consequence to land in the forecast track.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

9/28 - 5:30pm - A Beautiful Sunday Afternoon

It's difficult to complain about our lack of rain when we've got comfortable temperatures and sunny skies. The fact of the matter is that we're in a moderate drought according to the US Drought Monitor:



We ventured out to Joe Huber Family Farm in Starlight, IN earlier this afternoon to pick apples and boy were they ripe! The nice weather attracted loads of people out to pick pumpkins and apples or simply relax and spend the afternoon shopping and eating.

Hurricane Kyle is barely hanging on as a hurricane right now, with winds at 75mph. It should make landfall in Nova Scotia as a strong tropical storm (technically an extratropical storm due to conversion to a cold-core storm) later tonight. All that's left for Maine right now is a Tropical Storm Warning.

There's still a small chance of rain for us Monday night into Tuesday, but the rest of the week looks dry. Tomorrow should be the last day in the 80's before we slide into the 70's and a few possible days in the 60's this week.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

9/27 - 1:20pm - New Forecast Video

More graphics updates this week... including the 7 day forecast! Tropical Storm Kyle is making its way north to Maine and Canada. While it won't be a monster storm, it will cause some problems up there. It shouldn't be too bad unless the forecast track changes dramatically.



UPDATE: Apparently this is the first Hurricane Watch posted for Maine in 17 years.

Friday, September 26, 2008

9/26 - 5pm - TS Kyle, Rain Chances Slim

The low pressure area we've been talking about that's northeast of the Bahamas has now been named Tropical Storm Kyle. Contrary to the model hype earlier in the week, Kyle will not hit New York City or any large populous areas in the Northeast. Its current track grazes the coast of Maine before heading north to Canada:



Kyle will reach hurricane status by this weekend, but probably won't affect much of anything due to its location. It will hit the east coast of Canada as a tropical storm, but it should quiet down pretty quickly after heading inland. Pending any major track variations in the next few days, this should be a pretty forgettable storm.

We should stay dry as usual until Tuesday, when a weak front coming through could generate some showers. Again, optimism is pretty low at this point, so I wouldn't bet on seeing rain on Tuesday. Highs should decrease into the 60's and 70's next week!

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

9/24 - 4pm - Rain.... Please!

On my way home today, I saw that a creek near my house had completely dried up. That gave me a pretty good perspective on how our weather is right now: DRY. We might get a spot of rain Friday with a storm coming onshore in the Carolinas, but that's a stretch at this point. Expect temperatures to spiral down to 80 degrees by Friday after another hot one tomorrow.

That developing area of low pressure near Puerto Rico I talked about yesterday is not as organized as previously expected. Most models are still bringing it up to New England, but now most have it as a tropical storm now instead of a hurricane. Personally, I think this storm will barely materialize due to the possible tropical depression in the Carolinas throwing clouds over the Atlantic. This could limit solar heating on the water and cause interference with the water temperatures needed for this to form. This might have happened to Hurricane Gustav when Tropical Storm Hanna's cloud cover started intermingling with some of Gustav's, which could have made water temperatures drop in a crucial area of development. In any case, we'll have to watch both of these systems into the weekend.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

5/18 - 5:30pm - It's a Bit Hot... Could We Really Have a New England Hurricane?

I noticed today as I was sitting outside eating lunch that it's a bit hot for September. Quantitatively, we're around 10 degrees above average for this time of year. We hit 90 degrees, which really hits this point home since our average high is 76 for today. Even though it's dry, it still got a bit uncomfortable in the sun this afternoon.

The GFS is now showing an area low pressure (possibly a tropical storm) coming ashore in North Carolina on Friday, giving us a small chance of rain on the same day. I'm not real optimistic with that right now, so don't get your hopes up for rain anytime soon. Still looks like next Tuesday has a better chance for rain, but that's subject to change this far out.

A few computer models are starting to unnerve some of the weather community today as they show a hurricane hitting New England this weekend:


(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

As the spaghetti chart says, this isn't even a tropical depression yet. Once it's a tropical storm, it's name will be Kyle (unless the low off of North Carolina beats it). The models are confused as all get out at this point, so none of these forecast tracks should be given more than a glance. As far as strength goes, most are shooting for a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. The outlier was the GFDL model which suggested a nasty Category 2 storm near Long Island, but I wouldn't give that prediction the time of day under the circumstances. We just need to sit back and watch this thing during the week.

Monday, September 22, 2008

9/22 - 7:30pm - Welcome to Fall

Ah yes, 'tis the season of changing leaves, sweaters, football, and the occasional early snowstorm. Today was the first day of Fall 2008 and nobody could really tell. A continuation of our dry, nearly drought weather has made that Summer feeling in the air stick around a while longer. We're slated to be dry until possibly the first week of October according to the GFS. Even then it looks doubtful that we'll see much if any rain at all! At least our mornings and evenings in the lower 60's have made things feel a little more fall-ish.

An area of low pressure near Puerto Rico is making weather-watchers like myself cast a weary eye to the Caribbean. It is not yet a tropical depression, but it's getting fairly close according to the NHC. Some models were and still are taking this storm near the NYC area, prompting concern that this could be like a storm that hit New York on this day in 1938. Since it's late in the season and the water is not as warm in that vicinity comparted to the Gulf, I really wouldn't worry about this storm being a big mess like the one in '38. It is important that we keep an eye on it though in case it throws in some late season surprises.

Still 11,000 without power in Louisville as of 4:30pm today. It boggles my mind that we still have people without power from last Sunday's wind storm. That right there should tell you that this was a phenomenon that many of us will only see once in a lifetime. After returning to school today, an outpouring of many stories and experiences reverberated throughout the halls. I heard some say they didn't even lose power or see all that much wind. Those experiences were in the minority as most of the people I talked to said they were without power until this past weekend, with a few still without power. Many also had to clear out tree limbs and repair damage caused to their homes. We only lost a half dozen shingles and a couple limbs fell in our woods, so I consider myself lucky after hearing what others had to go through.

Thanks again for all the comments concerning my acceptance into MSU yesterday.