12/28 - 1:30am EST - Kentuckiana Winter Storm Number 2

Wednesday's winter storm didn't give much snow to folks in the Louisville area and instead confined heavy snow to areas of Southern Indiana. While differences in the models did exist over whether Louisville would get any accumulating snow or not, the overall situation was handled pretty well from a forecast standpoint. The highest snow report in NWS Louisville's coverage area was 7.2 inches in Washington County, IN while Louisville received a trace to a half inch.

The next storm on the heels of the last one is less than 24 hours away as a system arrives from the southwest and stays to our southeast as it moves through the region. This will start as some rain for the Louisville area but as colder air filters in we'll switch over to snow during the later evening hours. This exact time for switchover depends on how warm we get during the day tomorrow (lower 40's versus upper 30's makes a difference!) and how fast the cold air comes in. The 0z NAM that came in earlier tonight has about 3" for the city and after comparing this with other models I'm thinking this may be a number we'll see most commonly reported by Saturday morning in Louisville. Higher totals will be possible just a bit further north from Louisville.

But even as I say this there's a small fly in the ointment. The 3z RPM model is in and it has the possibility of 4-6" of snow just due east of the city and a few very small totals like this scattered throughout areas near the Ohio River. This suggests that totals closer to 4" might be more widespread than previously thought. You can click the RPM output on the left for a larger view. We've seen the trend of increasing snow totals today on the models and this run of the RPM just continues this. We'll need to watch for this trend tomorrow morning to see if other models catch on. Right now this isn't really a factor in my forecast since it's just one model. Below is my snow forecast map for the region. Realize that, like the last storm, a small shift in track or more/less cold air will change things for some folks drastically.

Also worth noting is that the Hyrdrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has us in a Slight Risk of a 4" snowfall (think of this like the Slight, Moderate, and High severe weather risks) while areas closer to Cincinnati are in a Moderate Risk. Expect to see Winter Weather Advisories being issued tomorrow for portions of Kentuckiana. There may also be a few Winter Storm Watches issued as well depending on if forecast amounts of 4" or more look to be more widespread. You can keep up with the latest on this storm tomorrow by following me on Twitter and Facebook. Good luck, snow lovers!

7/10 - 11:55pm - A Tale of Two TV Stations

Let's start with weather first, shall we? Today was hot in Louisville, much hotter than anticipated because dry air that made its way into the area allowed temperatures to rise quite a bit. We're talking about a high temperature that was 95 degrees today, which even though is very warm, it was still cooler than what we experienced during last week's massive heat wave. Tomorrow should be a little cooler as moister air moves in again from the south.

Daily rain chances will be ramping up Thursday in Louisville as a trough develops to the west of the Mississippi River. It's already been raining in West Tennessee a bit this week, but more is on the way through the weekend as this trough gets its act together and a warm front moves northward. The rain is still needed in West Tennessee as drought conditions persist throughout the region. This rain will keep temperatures down in both regions, which is good news after all the heat! Between this past morning and Sunday morning there could be over 6 inches of rainfall  in West Tennessee and North Mississippi according to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). Flash flooding issues may crop up in some of the heavier thunderstorms.

Now, to the two TV stations. The first TV station in question here is WBBJ-TV in Jackson, TN where I'll be at on Saturday and Sunday night doing weather. It's been nearly three months since I've been on air in West Tennessee so I'm happy to be coming back this weekend and next weekend too for the Saturday night shows! The second TV station in question is WAVE-TV in Louisville. Today I went in to meet with Kevin Harned and the gang at the station and came out a WAVE 3 Weather intern. This has been "in the works" for awhile but today it was made official and I'm extremely excited to be sharing this news! I'll be at WAVE a couple days a week until mid-August. My duties will be mostly web-based with social media, blogs, etc, but I'll also assist with any needed TV-related tasks. I'm so thankful to be able to intern at the station I grew up with and to work with such a great team of meteorologists!

3/7 - 7:45pm - Heavy Rain, Just in Time for Spring Break

A cold front moving Mississippi on Friday will bring some heavy rain to the area, but this will come after some warm temperatures in the mid 70's and showers on Thursday in Starkville. Temperatures will only get into the 50's on Friday as the front moves through, but the weekend should be warmer as southerly flow returns highs into the 60's. A few showers may linger into Saturday, but Sunday and Monday look to be very rainy right now in the Golden Triangle. The bulk of the rain will move out on Tuesday, but multiple shortwave disturbances aloft will trigger more shower chances throughout next week. By the time we're done with the heaviest rain on Monday we could be talking about well over two inches of rain accumulation. A lot of folks are saying "of course it would rain" for the start of spring break here at Mississippi State. Parts of West Tennessee could see three or more and the Delta region of Mississippi could go four inches plus according to the HPC's outlook on the left. That's a pretty big rain event!

Today's Mississippi State weather forecast video is not a typical one because our broadcast meteorology class did some challenging exercises today. My video below features a graphics lineup with few slides thrown in that I did not know about until they popped up on the screen. This is a great way to practice ad-libbing and prepare for situations when weather graphics programs malfunction on air. I think I was able to hold it together pretty well considering that I had to navigate a weather show that had no numbers in it and some redundant graphics. Check it out!

Tomorrow I leave with the Mississippi State University Distinguished Scholars on a trip to Atlanta, Georgia. We'll be there for the next few days touring the city and visiting a couple universities. Should be a fun trip! I'll be on my way to Louisville after we get back to enjoy the rest of my spring break. It's been almost two months since I've been home, so spring break is a welcome reward for all the hard work I've been doing lately!

12/15 - 5:30pm - Louisville Winter Storm CRUNCH TIME!

The onset of Louisville's first major mixed precipitation winter storm of the season is just hours away and the forecast is still very difficult. The National Weather Service has extended tonight's and tomorrow's Winter Storm Warning to counties in Southern Indiana that were previously only in an advisory. The reason for this is the increase in precipitation totals that both the NAM and GFS have been hinting at today. Those areas in Indiana will see all snow and sleet, with accumulations up to six inches in places.

Here in Louisville the snow should start from the southwest near the 10pm hour and possibly mix with sleet before 1am, with accumulations of around 1-2". Based on the model guidance I've seen, I think we'll switch over to a period of sleet with some freezing rain mixed in after 1am. Freezing rain will become dominant in Louisville just a couple hours after that and last until around 7am with ice accumulations ranging from 0.25" to 0.5". The 18z GFS model (pictured top left) and the NAM both keep Louisville just below freezing at the surface during the entirety of the winter storm, but we're going to have to watch that. The snow we have on the ground will influence the surface temperatures across the area, so the computer models may be running too warm at this point. As I've said before, Downtown Louisville could get a degree or two above freezing during the afternoon and that will help road conditions improve tremendously. The 18z NAM BUFKIT output (second image on left) gives Louisville 1.7" of snow/sleet with a half inch of ice accumulation.

Even with all of this data nothing is set in stone. The storm is forming to our west right now and we're already seeing light snow and sleet falling to our west and southwest. Watching the radar trends and surface observations overnight (called nowcasting) will be crucial to see who gets what kind of precipitation. Louisville is historically the battleground between precipitation types and we'll be in that situation for sure tonight. The HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) has Louisville and areas south in a Moderate Risk for 0.25" of ice accumulation. Louisville and points north have been put under a Moderate Risk for 4"+ of snow accumulation as well, so we may very well end up with quite a bit of both snow and ice here in the city.


Should this system shift south just a few miles, Louisville would end up with mostly snow and accumulations would pile up to nearly half a foot. I've posted the 12z NAM snow accumulation output on the left just so you can see how incredibly close the heavy snow will be to Louisville, at least according to that model run. A shift northward would severely limit snow accumulations and put us in a mostly ice situation. Either way, Kentuckiana is set to get walloped by winter weather tonight. This will not be as bad as the January 2009 ice storm due to lesser ice accumulations and the potential for slightly above freezing temperatures during the daytime hours in Downtown Louisville and areas south of town as well. We'll see how it all plays out!

12/15 - 1am - Late Night Winter Storm Update

The 0z suite of computer models (GFS/NAM) is in and the verdict is not good for our winter storm here in Louisville and surrounding areas. Both computer models have increased the amount of precipitation that will fall tomorrow night through Thursday, but it still appears the time line I laid out in the blog post below is valid. The GFS model is now putting out 0.35" of liquid equivalent precipitation and the NAM just output 0.75". This is up considerably on both models compared to this afternoon's runs. Check out the 18z NAM model's accumulated freezing rain estimate for this storm on the left... it's showing the potential for a half inch or more of accumulated ice around the region.

I still think Southern Indiana north of Scottsburg will see mostly snow, which could add up to four or five inches especially as you head eastward. Here in Louisville we're on track to see a brief burst of moderate snow on Wednesday night before we go to sleet and then to freezing rain by Thursday morning. Like I said earlier today, Louisville's morning commute on Thursday is going to be treacherous if all the data we're seeing right now comes to fruition. Surface temperatures should be below freezing in Louisville throughout Wednesday night and Thursday (Downtown Louisville could get just above freezing on Thursday afternoon), so ice will have no problem accumulating on cars, roadways, overpasses, and everything in between. The computer models aren't accounting for the snow we have on the ground already, which will cool our surface temperatures, so it's difficult to gauge just where exactly it will get above freezing just south of town. The good part in all of this is that we will be fairly close to the freezing mark, which will make the salt on the roads much more effective. If surface temperatures were to be in the teens or 20's during this event, we'd have much worse road conditions. The HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) has points just south of Louisville in a slight risk for 0.25" of freezing rain or more (see right image), but we'll see how that plays out. I think we have the potential for 0.25" or higher of ice accumulation here in Louisville on Thursday, but those numbers will be fine-tuned as we get closer to time.

I'll post tomorrow with the latest data. Again, this storm won't break any records, but it will have a significant impact on much of Kentuckiana. Remember that I-64 and south will be under a Winter Storm Warning from tomorrow afternoon through Thursday afternoon and points north of I-64 will be under a Winter Weather Advisory for the same time period. The difference between these two is the potential ice accumulations, which warrant a Winter Storm Warning in place of an advisory.

12/10 - 12:30pm - Crazy Weather on the Way in Louisville!

I'm back home in Louisville after a long drive from Mississippi last night. My third semester at MSU is over after going through my final exams and now it's time to move on to more important things, like a potential accumulating snow here in Louisville this weekend!


The Latest
The computer forecast models have had a very difficult time trying to forecast this weekend's storm across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. Earlier this week there were vast differences in where the low pressure center of this storm would track. Some models had the low moving into central Tennessee or central Kentucky before cutting northward to Ohio/West Virginia, and others had it moving into Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana before cutting north to the Great Lakes. The Tennessee/Kentucky track is the one that would give Louisville a snowstorm, but it appears a more northerly track will take place. The HPC's (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) depiction of the northern track is on the right image. Luckily, for you snowlovers out there, this is not the end of our snow chances for this storm here in Kentuckiana!

As the cold air behind this storm catches up with the back end of the rain we'll see on Saturday, we may see a brief burst of wet snow on Saturday night. Then, light snow will wrap around the back end of the storm and impact us from the north on Sunday, possibly into Monday. By the time this is all said and done, I think Louisville will have 2-3" (isolated 4") of snow on the ground with lower amounts south and higher amounts north of here. The 6z GFS model seems to be picking up on these totals well and I've posted its forecast snowfall accumulation map to the left. You can click the image for a larger view if needed.

Here's what the National Weather Service in Louisville says about all of this:

THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR CAN CATCH UP TO THE PRECIP...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS BEFORE WE GET INTO A BRIEF DRY SLOT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST INDIANA COUNTIES AND THE BLUEGRASS BY MONDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.  TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION.

Even though we have a general track somewhat ironed out now, there are a couple of details that could increase our snow totals. While the GFS/ECMWF (European)/NAM/CMC models all generally agree on a northern track to this storm, the UKMET model is still taking a more southerly track near the Ohio Valley. At this point I think it's an outlier solution, but nevertheless there is a sliver of a chance that the low could take a little jog southward and impact our snow totals. There's also a chance that a secondary low could form well to the south of the primary storm and the implications of that are pretty substantial on our snow totals. Chances for that look slim as well as most computer models either don't have it or get rid of it before it exits Texas. Again, these are just a couple little things to watch that could affect us if they come to fruition by some outside chance.

As if the snow wasn't enough, we'll also have to contend with gusty winds of 25-35mph on Sunday which will blow the drier snow around and create visibility issues. Temperatures will also plummet during the storm as a cold front comes through, meaning we'll see highs only in the 20's for Sunday and Monday here in the Metro. Factor those chilly temperatures in with the winds and you've got yourself below zero windchills. That's dangerous weather in itself... stay warm out there!

I'll be posting updates on my Facebook and Twitter accounts today if there are any updates.

7/10 - 11:30am - More Rain on the Way!

After more than a week with no rain here in Louisville, Thursday and Friday really turned things around. We measured .71" of rain at my house on Thursday and Friday combined. That may be a higher number than most areas in town because we were caught under a small isolated storm on Thursday that only covered the Southeast portion of the county (see right image). Now that the cold front has passed, we're enjoying slightly cooler temperatures with lower humidity. We should get up to 90 today and a couple degrees warmer than that tomorrow.

Our next chance for rain comes on Monday as another approaching cold front fires off some showers and thunderstorms. That chance will last throughout the day on Tuesday before tapering off on Wednesday. We could get nearly two inches of rain out of this front as it comes through according to the HPC, so get those umbrellas ready!

6/8 - 2:30pm - Storms Coming to Louisville

A MCS (mesoscale convective system - a line of storms) is headed for Louisville this evening from Illinois. There are no severe weather warnings associated with this line of storms, but I think heavy rain will be the biggest issue as it comes through after midnight. The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas just north and west of Louisville under a Slight Risk for severe weather today in light of the MCS making its way through.

More storms are possible tomorrow afternoon as a cold front nears the Ohio River. We're under another Slight Risk for severe storms tomorrow, but my thinking is that Southern Kentucky will be under the greatest threat as instability increases tomorrow ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front. Heavy rain will again be the biggest risk around here tomorrow as precipitable water numbers will be quite high across the region. We could easily end up with nearly an inch of rain or more by Friday here in Louisville according to the HPC's QPF outlook. Extreme amounts of four inches or more are possible south of St. Louis.

4/29 - 12am CDT - Final Exams/Derby/Storm Chasing

It's been a long week of packing and final exams at Mississippi State University. I finished my chemistry, world geography, and calculus II final exams this week and I'll be taking my English composition II exam just before I leave for Louisville this evening. My car is just about packed (yes, all of my stuff really does "fit" in my Honda Fit) and I have just a few more hours here on campus before I depart this evening.

I'll be returning home just before the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Right now I think we may have some weather trouble on Saturday as a pair of low pressure systems to the west try to turn north as they near the Mississippi River. Heavy rain will be a major issue for Derby according to the latest computer models. There's even a risk for some severe weather around the region at that time, but I think heavy rain will be the bigger story around the Ohio Valley. If you think the infield at Churchill Downs is crazy during good weather, get ready for a muddy mess in the heavy rain. I'm a bit concerned that there may be ongoing thunderstorms near the 6 o'clock hour, which might mean a postponement of the Derby. We'll see how the weather situation develops!

You've probably noticed that I switched out the banner of the blog to prepare for my upcoming storm chasing trip. I just can't believe that I'm only 9 days away from a month's worth of storm chasing in the Plains with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. I'll be bringing you 1080p HD video, pictures, chase reports and more on this blog and through my Twitter and Facebook accounts daily during the chase. I'm looking forward to meeting all our new and returning guests this year on our tours. Meteorologist Kevin Harned of WAVE 3 TV in Louisville, who has been a tour guide and severe weather expert with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours for years, will be joining us during my last week of chasing starting May 29th. It'll be great to have another Louisvillian out there with us, and I'm sure Kevin will be broadcasting his own storm chasing updates on WAVE 3 throughout the week.

All the storm chasing action on my blog starts May 8th!

2/10 - 3:10pm - New HPC Outlook

The HPC just issued a new snow outlook:

We're just north of the slight risk for 4" of snow in Starkville according to this outlook, but areas near Jackson are in the moderate to high risk areas, meaning they could see heavy snow down that way. Still quite a few details to be hammered out with this storm, so keep up with the latest forecast!

2/10 - 2:15pm - Update on Friday's Snow in Starkville

The computer models today have started trending a little further north with the track of the storm on Friday. This essentially means that we've gone from virtually no snow for Friday to a dusting now. If the models keep pulling the Gulf low with this storm further north, we would certainly see an accumulating snow on Friday, somewhere in the neighborhood of 1-4". This is a wait-and-see kind of game at the moment, but I think a more accurate storm track will be hammered out by tomorrow. An interesting development today has been the HPC's latest 4" snow risk product:


The slight risk for 4" of snow goes all the way up to Tupelo, MS, which you can see above depicted by the blue outline. This doesn't mean we'll see 4" of snow in Starkville, but it does mean that the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) is monitoring this northward shift. There are still many model solutions out there for this storm's track, but it does appear that the average track has shifted northward just a bit. We'll see how the next few model runs pan out.

I hope everyone back home in Louisville is enjoying the snow! The NWS's official snowfall total was 6.5", so it was a pretty big storm by Kentucky standards. Jefferson County Public Schools could be making a decision about school tomorrow by 5pm according to the Courier-Journal. With two days of school cancellations in Louisville already this week, a third day would certainly give the all the kids another day to play in the snow!

9/20 - 2pm - MSU Forecast

The rain last week may have been scattered, but MSU certainly got the brunt of it. The storm that came through on Friday evening turned the Drill Field into a swamp for a few hours and made it difficult to get around campus without stepping into a deep puddle. That's a lot of rain! Unfortunately, this week's forecast looks similar to last week's in terms of rain. Again, this won't be an all-day thing this week, but any scattered storm that comes through could put down some heavy rain:


According to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC), we could see over two inches of rain during the next five days:


The GFS model is beginning to show cooler air filtering into the country starting in a couple weeks. Obviously this is a long way out, so pinpointing anything at the moment is not possible. Just be ready for temperatures to drop sometime during the first couple weeks in October. Fall starts on Tuesday, so we should begin to see cooler temperatures soon, like the GFS is hinting at.

9/13 - 2pm - MSU Forecast

What a soggy end to the weekend! A very pronounced low pressure system will be making its way through the Mississippi Valley over the next couple of days, resulting in multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms through mid week. Don't expect any severe weather from this system, but have those umbrellas ready:


We should see another round of rain this afternoon, which should be much heavier than the rain we saw this morning. We could have over three inches of rain by the time this is all said and done later this week according to the Hydorometeorological Prediction Center (HPC):

Stay dry out there!

7/3 - 9:15am - Storm Chasing Documentary, July 4th Forecast

I've been hard at work going through and editing more than two hours of video I shot during my storm chasing trip. Here's my final product, a much leaner 22 minutes and 30 seconds:



On to the July 4th forecast.... It looks like we may make out okay for any afternoon and early evening festivities during Independence Day. There may be a few scattered thunderstorms ahead of this front, but they should only temporarily halt any outdoor plans before they move off. Highs around the area should hover around 80, which could make this the most comfortable July 4th in Louisville in many years. The main rain comes after midnight on Saturday, with rainfall totals over one inch according to the HPC. There's still a little bit of wiggle room between the models on when exactly this rain will start, but the general conclusion is that it will happen after midnight. So as long as you get those fireworks shows in before late evening, things should stay dry.

We'll see a small chance for rain on Sunday with the exit of this system, but the rest of next week will be dry with highs in the 80's!

4/28 - 5:30pm - More Rain to Come

We got .18" of rain today at my house, but more is on the way. The HPC estimates we'll get in excess of three inches of rain this week:

This certainly seems feasible after seeing tons of rain on GFS model from today all the way to Saturday morning (I'll get to Derby weather in a moment).

Another rainy day is on the way for tomorrow with a high in the lower 70's. The Pegasus Parade on Thursday looks fairly wet right now, but there is the potential for a bit of clearing in the afternoon that could send temperatures into the upper 70's.

Let's talk Oaks weather... which doesn't look too good. The SPC just issued this severe weather outlook pertaining to Friday (Oaks):


Since there is a fairly strong cold front coming through early Saturday, conditions look at least marginally good for a severe weather situation around here. The highest instability will stay to our west it looks like, but moisture flow into the area will be quite ample to support strong to severe storms. I'll have more on this as we get closer, but nobody wants severe weather during Oaks!

Derby is another wild card at this point because it depends on what time this cold front passes in the morning. If the front passes through during the early morning hours as the GFS indicates, we should have clearing skies by the time the horses are ready to go. If this front delays, we could have a rainy mess at Churchill Downs. I'm leaning toward the no-rain solution for Derby right now, but everyone needds to keep in mind that this is a very tricky forecast situation.

4/9 - 5:30pm - Severe Weather, A Nice Easter Weekend

What a great day! It got a bit warmer than expected with 67 degrees for a high, so this is really a bonus for us before tonight and tomorrow's rain and storms.

Speaking of precipitation, here's the current radar view:



That rain near Evansville should be here tonight and continue through the day tomorrow. We may see a short break in the rain during the late morning before potentially severe storms come through tomorrow afternoon and evening. Here's the latest severe weather outlook from the SPC:



Notice how the 30% risk is in Southern Kentucky. This is where the SPC thinks the biggest tornado risk exists. I think this area could be extended further north into the Louisville area if the higher CAPE (instability) values for Friday on today's SREF model are indeed correct and if cloudcover doesn't become an issue. The dampener though is weaker shear in our area compared to Tennessee, so that may keep the tornadoes suppressed to the south. In any case, wind and hail will be the main issues. Things should get hammered out by tomorrow morning, so stay tuned!

The total rain forecast for tonight and tomorrow from the HPC is pretty impressive:



Areas in Southwestern Indiana could see more than two inches of rain, but it looks like the immediate Louisville will get somewhere around an inch and a half.

This system will give way to a nice Easter weekened with highs near 60 and sunny skies. Next storm chance occurs on Monday.

2/27 - 4pm - On the Edge for Snow

What a storm last night! Winds gusted to 44mph at 3:54am this morning at my house with winds around 60 in other parts of the Metro. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued and bleachers were overturned at Ballard High School according to a storm report filed with the Storm Prediction Center.

The latest runs of both the GFS and NAM have snow just to our south for tomorrow and late tomorrow night. The heaviest moisture is so very close, but a tight gradient exists as you go north:


(click image to see larger view)

This morning, the HPC had a SLIGHT risk of 4+ inches of snow in Central Kentucky and points east, but the newest outlook pulls the risk area further south into Tennessee and far South Kentucky. At this point I don't think anything is written in stone because of the amount of irregularity in the models. Even though the general track of the storm has been pretty consistent, a 25-50 mile shift north in the storm track will bring us more than just the snow showers the models are forecasting at the moment. This kind of shift is not rare 24-36 hours out, so I would not discount the fact that we could have an accumulating snow late Saturday.

We should top out at around 32 tomorrow for a high, with upper 30's for Sunday and Monday. 40's are back for Tuesday, with 50's for the remainder of the week.

1/23 - 4:45pm - Snow Shovels?

I think we may need to use snow shovels on Tuesday. After taking a look at the latest GFS runs, they've started going toward the HPC's solution of the low passing to our south. This means we'll see all snow on Monday night through Wednesday morning if this track holds. Snow amounts are tricky right now because the 6z GFS had us getting pummeled with quite a bit of moisture, but the 12z backed off. This will vary over the next couple days, so we needn't worry about snow amounts yet.

The Wednesday-Thursday storm looks like rain to me at the moment, but I'm still going to keep an eye on it. If the next storm corrects southward on the models like the one for Monday-Wednesday, look out. Obviously none of this is set in stone, so we'll have to wait for successive model runs to determine the details. I've have more details in the video forecast tomorrow afternoon!

Enjoy the last of the warm air this evening! Temperatures in the 30s are in store for the weekend after this cold front passes tonight.

11/19 - 7pm - Cold Enough??

I awoke to a very startling number on my thermometer this morning, 15.5 degrees. Lows in Louisville were in the mid 20's, but once you got out of the city temperatures nosedived. Another cold night is on tap with a low just below freezing in the city and even lower temperatures in the suburbs and rural areas. Tomorrow will be a repeat of today, except we'll see a high near 43 instead of 48 for today. Friday will be the real wake-up call for the upcoming winter: a few clouds with a high near 36.

Looks like rain will be the main story for early next week as a reinforcing cold front comes through. The HPC is calling for between .1" and .25" on the QPF at this point and the models seem to be in agreement with that. Could squeeze out a flurry or two on the backside of this system.

11/10 - 4:30pm - Did Someone Say Snow Showers?

I've been watching the GFS over the last few runs as it has moved some snow in here for Saturday night. The NWS is calling for snow showers, but I think that may be too strong of a term based on the amount of moisture that is possible. If the models start giving us more moisture in later runs I'll say snow showers, but for now I'm going to stick with flurries for Saturday night and even into Sunday.

Until then we have some rain to deal with, and a lot of it! The HPC is putting our 5-day rain total at just under 1.5". This will come from two low pressure systems, one passing to the south and the next passing to our north. The rain will start early tomorrow morning and continue until Saturday night. Whatever is left on the backside of the second low will fall as flurries on Sunday morning and a cold rain with possible embedded snowflakes on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will hold below 40 for a high on Sunday, so there are definitely the right parameters for some snow. While it won't stick to the ground, it'll at least be a nice reminder of the winter still to come (if you like snow).