Thursday, June 28, 2007

6/28 - 2:30pm - Severe Chances Increasing

The reason I posted so late today was so that I could get a handle on the severe weather situation this afternoon and evening. As of right now we are in a SLIGHT RISK (15%) area for severe storms. This is up from just 5% on this morning's outlook.

At the moment, we are just inside a Mesoscale Discussion area. This simply means that meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center are carefully monitoring our area for severe weather. Our biggest threats, according to the discussion, are heavy rain and high wind. Here's the graphic:

The current radar view is showing some scattered heavy downpours preceding a larger line of strong storms. I'm currently testing a trial version of some nifty radar software and its telling me that there is some hail in the cluster just NW of Evansville. Sometimes the system gives false positives on hail, so I can't be sure. Some of the cloud tops are being measured at 30,000 to 40,000 feet right now, which is high enough to get hail going. Although I'm not sure of the temperature at that altitude, which is a huge factor in this.

I don't think there is a huge hail threat though, because nothing is showing up on the storm reports yet. Also, its probably not large hail if there is any...

If we start getting severe thunderstorm warnings showing up near Louisville, I'll go ahead and start broadcasting on my severe weather coverage. This is only if it gets to where I'm sure that Louisville will experience severe weather.

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

6/26 - 10:30pm - .15" Today!

After a long and nasty stretch of dry weather, our rain totals in the last couple of days have been great. Sure, just over a tenth of an inch may not sound like much. But we can take what we can get.

For those who live east of I-65, today was a good rain day. A small cell popped up just south of Jefferson County and tracked just northeast while putting down a good tenth of an inch. Other cells in this vicinity dropped a good quarter of an inch in Shelby County, but of course we aren't that lucky.

Switching gears to forecasting, we have a decent shot at some APPRECIABLE rain on Thursday (night-ish). The HPC has put out this great looking graphic, showing what we'll end up with by Friday.

For this month, we are 1.82" below normal for rain. For this year, we are a whopping 5.11" behind. While I don't think the Thursday system will wipe out our yearly deficit, I think our monthly one will at least take a good hit. Some locations have seen rain amounts of over 2 inches the last few days, mainly near the Evansville area. So maybe its finally our turn to cap our drought situation...

Sunday, June 24, 2007

6/24 - 12:30pm - RAIN!!!

Its nice to see some rain around here. It's weird to come back from a trip and see the grass so brown. I was starting to lose hope on drought relief until yesterday, when we had quite a soaker come through. That small cell formed in just minutes, because the radar was clear when I left to do some errands around town. It was refreshing to say the least.

Now were getting ready to get socked by some rain in just a few minutes (as of 12:30). This is great news because we are 5 inches behind on rain for the year so far. I heard on the news that there are counties just southeast of Louisville that are nearly a foot behind their normal yearly rain amounts...

So lets get some rain!

Saturday, June 23, 2007

Monday, June 4, 2007

6/4 - 9am - Things to Watch for This Week

Since I'll be gone this week, here are a few things to look out for this week in terms of weather. Number one is severe weather. Friday and Saturday look like our best chances for severe weather, according to the SPC. After cringing and waiting for this severe weather season, I think this could be the real kick off. Luckily, it looks like more of a wind/hail threat right now than a tornado threat. Of course the minute we get severe weather, I'm not here to do my video coverage...

The second thing is rain later today. I think some areas may get more than a quarter of an inch. Like the rain yesterday, which went east of here for the most part, it will be hit and miss. I think Louisville will make out better today though, at least I'm hoping.

The third and final thing to look out for is the heat. As I mentioned in my video forecast, we could have a heatwave on our hands by late this week. I think at least Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and also Tuesday through Thursday next week will be in the 90's. Unfortunately the humidity is also going to skyrocket next week too. So we may have to pull out a word I've not used yet in the six month history of this blog. Heat index.

Well, I hope for the best in Louisville while I'm gone. When I come back, I'm hoping everything (like the trees in my backyard and the shingles on my roof) is where I left it.

Saturday, June 2, 2007

6/2 - 12:30pm - New Forecast Video

Here's a new forecast video. I'll be gone for a couple weeks so there won't be any blog updates, severe weather coverage, or video forecasts until June 23rd or so.

Friday, June 1, 2007

6/1 - 5:30pm - Hello Tropical Storm Barry!

Today is the start of the 2007 hurricane season. Talk about getting out of the gate early, we've got a tropical storm on our hands already. Tropical Storm Barry is set to hit the Florida Gulf Coast tomorrow, where the rain is needed. Luckily it looks too close to land to really crank up too fast.

Last year's hurricane season was a fizzle, thankfully. The storms had trouble even breaching the Gulf. This new storm scares me though. If we are getting storms that are easily passing through this early in the season, there is much reason for concern. The first storm in the violent 2005 (Katrina) season formed two weeks after the start of the season, not the first day. All we can do is watch and wait really.

On a lighter note, we are in good shape for some rain Sunday night into Monday. NAM looks good right now, just as it did yesterday. The GFS is roundabout the same with just a little less moisture. Since the NAM has a better track record, I'll stick with that model. So hopefully we can get back on track soon!

6/1 - 8am - WAVE TV Appearance

I had a chance to visit WAVE 3 TV in Louisville for a job shadow yesterday. I had a great time getting to see how the weather department operates and meeting everyone. While I was there I also made an appearance on TV to promote Ryan Weather. Here's a clip of it:

I would also like to welcome my new visitors, because I know there are a lot of them. Views of this website doubled just minutes after this website aired on TV. Kevin Harned and John Belski also mentioned me on their blogs.