Sunday, January 31, 2010

1/31 - 2:30pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast

Our weather pattern is calming down after a few days of rain and even snow flurries. We should start out the week dry, with intermittent clouds here and there until Wednesday evening. Rain should overspread the area early Thursday and continue through Friday. The good news is that the rain will be out of here just before the start of the weekend! Temperatures should range between the mid 40's and lower 50's for highs this week.

Groundhog Day is on Tuesday, so we'll have to see what Punxsutawney Phil says about the coming weeks of winter! Regardless of what Mr. Phil says, I think we're in for a couple more shots of cold air and maybe some snow. The first of these cold air/snow possibilities will take place around Wednesday of next week, so keep an eye out for the latest forecast.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

1/28 - 9:30pm - Big Ohio/Tennessee Valley Snowstorm

If you live anywhere in between Louisville, KY and Chattanooga, TN, you're in for some snow tomorrow! A very potent storm is on the way and will assuredly cause headaches throughout the region this weekend. Winter Storm Warnings (pink counties on image), Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories (blue counties) have been issued for much of the area already ahead of this storm. Here are some sample forecast snow totals for select cities:

Louisville, KY - 4-6"
Bowling Green, KY - 6-8"
Lexington, KY - 5-7"

Nashville, TN - 4-8" with ice
Memphis, TN - 1-3" with ice
Knoxville, TN - 3-6"

Louisville is on the very north end of this system, meaning that a storm track change of only 20 miles could throw off totals quite a bit. In the same fashion, Memphis, Nashville, and Knoxville are on the southern edge of this system and the same rule applies. Anywhere in between these cities is in pretty good shape for seeing snow regardless of micro track changes.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

1/26 - 5pm - MSU Forecast Video

The winds should finally die down tomorrow, meaning things will not be as brisk around MSU. Rain is in the forecast for Thursday night into Friday, which could be heavy at times. There is still some uncertainty over whether we will receive any frozen precipitation on Friday afternoon as this system exits the area, so be sure to check back on Twitter and Facebook for any late-breaking changes. Areas to our north in Tennessee and Kentucky could get quite a few inches of snow and some ice out of this system!

Sunday, January 24, 2010

1/24 - 1pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast

A chilly week is shaping up as the rain exits the area today and cooler air filters in. Highs should stay in the 50's for most of the week. Our next chance of rain will happen on Thursday night into Friday as a potent cold front comes through. The cold air behind the front may be strong enough to give us some flurries on Friday afternoon or evening, but I do expect most of the precipitation to fall as rain. It should be noted that a southward shift in the track of this system on Thursday/Friday could bring us more frozen precipitation. Temperatures in the 30's and 40's will return next weekend.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

1/19 - 5pm - MSU Forecast Video

We're in for some big-time rain tomorrow night as a potent storm comes through the region. Current models are putting rainfall estimate well over two inches, so watch out for ponding and flash flooding. Next chance of storms (they could be strong) happens on Saturday night as a cold front comes through. That front will extinguish our warm temperatures next week, meaning we'll see highs in the 50's instead of the 60's.

Monday, January 18, 2010

1/18 - 9am - MSU 7-Day Forecast

While it won't be cold this week at Mississippi State, the rain will certainly make an impact as it falls on Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday. Severe weather chances on Wednesday should stay well to the south of Starkville, but thunderstorms do look likely given the strength of this system. Too early to tell how strong the storms on Sunday will be, but I'll keep an eye it!

After a nice long weekend at home in Louisville, I'm heading back to Mississippi this afternoon. I'll be back in the studio again tomorrow to do another MSU forecast video, so be sure to check back tomorrow evening!

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

1/12 - 5:15pm - MSU Forecast Video

Here's the first Mississippi State University video forecast of 2010!

Warmer temperatures are on the horizon as southerly winds and high pressure begin affecting the area more and more. There's a chance for rain on Saturday, but I'm not real sure how heavy that will be this point based on some computer model disagreements. Overall, a very nice forecast with not a flake of snow to speak of!

Sunday, January 10, 2010

1/10 - 2pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast - 900th Post!

Here's a fresh Mississippi State University 7-day forecast, the first of 2010:

It's a relief that temperatures will finally be getting above freezing this week. I don't see any snow in the forecast, but heavy rain may become an issue by the weekend. Until then, expect sunny skies and highs in the 40's and 50's.

I'm proud to announce that this is my 900th blog post. I started this blog in January 2007 with the hope that it would teach me more about weather and mass communication. What I didn't expect was the amount of people who would actually look at it and where it would take me. I've had over 27,500 visits since 2007 and an average of 85 per day. That comes out to around 600 visits to this blog every week! Thanks to all my viewers for supporting me through over the years. I plan to keep this blog going for many more years to come!

Friday, January 8, 2010

1/8 - 4pm - Bitter Cold!

We may have missed out on the snow here in Starkville, but the cold certainly hit us hard last night. Here's this weekend's forecast:

That's right, no above freezing temperatures until Sunday at the earliest. Many have asked me why MSU missed the brunt of the winter storm yesterday. The answer is quite simple: Temperatures were warmer than forecast on the computer models. Temperatures at the surface were cold enough for snow to stick during some points of the morning yesterday, but warmer than expected temperatures aloft changed most of the snow to rain and sleet. Only a few miles north of MSU the dominant precipitation type was snow, especially in places like West Point and Tupelo. This is a classic example of how hard it is to forecast snow. A degree or two and a few miles can make a big difference!

Be sure to bundle up if you're out this evening, because temperatures will get down into the lower teens again tonight. Walking to class this morning was brutal by Mississippi standards. Temperatures were in the 15-17 degree range and winds were gusting to around 20, making the windchill dip into below zero territory. We should see a warm-up next week, so getting around campus should become bearable again!

Jefferson County Public Schools back home in Louisville closed today because of the first major accumulating snow of the season up there. Louisville received between 2.5 to 4 inches, making some back roads pretty hazardous. Here's what it looks like right now out my window at home:

Pretty sight, eh? We'll see if Louisville gets anymore snow next week.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

1/6 - 6:30pm - Video Update on Mississippi Winter Storm

This video has the latest on our winter storm:

(Click the HD button to view this video in high-definition)

As of now, it looks like one to two inches of snow could fall in Starkville. Some freezing rain and sleet could mix in early in the morning, but we should switch to all snow by mid morning. Driving could be hazardous, so be careful out there tomorrow!

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

1/5 - 10:30am - Snow on the Way!

Snow is on the way for much of the Southeast as a storm rolls through with cold temperatures already in place. Based on the latest computer models, Starkville could get an inch or two, Tennessee could get more than two inches, and Louisville is on track to receive three to four inches. All of the models have been showing a little bit of warm air surging north during the storm, meaning Starkville could be closer to the rain/snow line than previously thought. We'll see how this develops over the next day or so.

Classes start tomorrow here at Mississippi State, so a busy day is ahead!

Saturday, January 2, 2010

1/2 - 7pm - Snow Chances Going Up!

Snow chances are on the rise as confidence and agreement among the computer models increases for next week. Right now it looks like snow could fall from Chicago to Mississippi on Thursday. With cold air in place, problems with ice or rain look very unlikely for all points north of Central Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi. As far as snowfall totals go, I think we could see some fairly impressive numbers come out of this system. The GFS model had been very conservative with precipitation amounts up until the 18z run this afternoon, which mirrors the ECMWF (Euro) more closely with increased precipitation (I do not have access to precipitation amounts for the ECMWF, but local NWS discussions highlighted what was going on with this model). I would say that Louisville could get 3 to 5 inches of snow out of this system if the GFS keeps this trend up. Remember that it will be very cold when the precipitation reaches the area, so liquid rain to snow conversion ratios will be much higher.

I'm heading back to Mississippi State on Monday, and this same system may spread snow across the northern half of the state on Thursday! I was a bit worried that it may not be cold enough down there for this system to stay all snow, but the GFS and Euro have been consistent in keeping things cold enough for snow north of I-20. The current 18z GFS run spits out over 4 inches of snow for the Starkville, Columbus, West Point area, so we may see a good accumulating snow if things keep up on the models. 4 inches may be a little too optimistic, but I'd say at least an inch or two. There's certainly room for things to change between now and Thursday, but I think chances are getting better for snow in Mississippi. We'll see how it goes!