4/17 - 6:35pm - Severe Weather Tomorrow in Mississippi

A line of severe thunderstorms will move through Mississippi tomorrow, bringing the threat of damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail. The timing on these storms in Starkville will be somewhere near 10pm. Given the uncertainties in this forecast you should be on alert for severe weather in the Golden Triangle between 8pm and midnight tomorrow night. Be sure you have a NOAA weather radio or a smartphone weather alerting app ready to go! All the details on this severe weather forecast are available in the video below.

3/25 - 11:35pm - Weather Says January, Calendar Says March

A biting wind brought in much cooler air today across Mississippi and we even saw a few snow showers across northern portions of the state. As a large trough over the eastern part of the nation begins to break down we'll see temperatures in recovery mode as we head toward the weekend. If you're looking for more appropriate spring-like weather, hang on! Later this week and the weekend will certainly feature more of what you're looking for. Check out my Mississippi State University CampusConnect forecast below for your complete outlook.

1/29 - 5:45pm - Serious Severe Weather Concerns Tonight

Latest Severe Weather Updates

Tweets by @RyanHoke

A severe weather setup that we see normally in the springtime is about to unfold on this late January night across a large expanse of the Southeast. While not "unprecedented" or "once-in-a-lifetime", this outbreak is going to impact quite a few people and it's important that everyone have what they need to be prepared and safe. This post is mainly for folks in North Mississippi and West Tennessee, but you can figure out pretty well how you'll be affected if you're not in these areas by some of the maps and information below. Everyone needs to be aware of what's going on because this will be happening at a very bad time of night when even the night owls are asleep.

Fast Facts

A MODERATE Risk of severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the overnight hours in West Tennessee and most of North Mississippi. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are all on the table for these areas as storms move through. Even though places like the Golden Triangle in Mississippi are just outside of the Moderate Risk area I would treat this as if you were in it because these storms are going to be very, very strong still as they move through this region. Please, please, please have a weather radio or smartphone app that's armed and ready to alert you if a Tornado Warning is issued for your location tonight. This will be hitting when most people are asleep so it's a very dangerous situation.

Timing - North MS and West TN

8pm - Midnight - Small chance for some isolated storms. These would carry a tornado, wind, and hail threat.

Midnight - 2am - Slightly better chance for isolated storms, small line of storms may try to form ahead of main line.

2am - 7am - Main line of severe thunderstorms moves through. This will affect everyone. Tornadoes, severe damaging winds, and hail are a good bet during this time.

Discussion

A line of storms stretches from the Great Lakes to Texas right now and will continue to move eastward through the evening. A few reports of severe weather have come in already from this but the main show will be overnight as this line of storms encounters a more rich environment for severe weather.

The main storm mode for tonight will be a squall line of storms with embedded rotation in portions of it (AKA what's termed a QLCS). Supercell storms will be possible ahead of the main line of storms too and could easily produce tornadoes if they develop. Tornadoes in QLCS lines of storms like the one we'll have tonight are more difficult to identify on radar since they're embedded within the line. While not as strong as supercell tornadoes, QLCS tornadoes can be strong and cause massive damage in the right environment.

While directional shear, which is needed to produce tornadoes, isn't very good for this event, the speed shear or tendency for winds to increase in speed with height will be very good. But, the directional shear may just be enough to cause problems. When you combine helicity (caused by shear) with instability in a formula you get what's called the Energy Helicity Index (EHI). This, in my mind, is a good determinant of tornado ingredients in an environment. The NAM model has increased levels of the EHI throughout West Tennessee and Mississippi tonight as this squall line is moving through so these QLCS tornadoes may have some kick to them if they develop. Not good news at all.


Also, since winds at 850 mb (about 5,000 feet) will be howling it will not take much for any part of this line of storms to pull these winds down to the surface and create straight-line wind damage. I wouldn't be surprised if folks affected by the worst of these winds thought they were hit by a tornado. I'm hearing the word Derecho being thrown around a bit with regard to how this system will develop tonight. That's certainly a possibility with this system but I think it's a relatively small chance.

One more thing to mention, and this is not the least important at all, is the fact that moisture and warm air continues to stream in from the south in advance of this system. When the dry line that's triggering these storms hits this richer air tonight you'll know. The whole line of storms should really begin to light up by then. Having air this warm and moist in January is never a good thing because Mother Nature intends to correct it in a violent way.

Follow me on Twitter and my Facebook page for the latest updates tonight!

10/29 - 3:30pm - Superstorm Sandy Coming in, Cool Week in Mississippi

Hurricane Sandy is a monster storm. That goes without saying. It's about two hours from landfall as of this writing but that won't matter much due to just how incredibly large the wind field is. Tropical storm winds extend for hundreds of miles from the center of the storm making this the largest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean at over 1,000 miles wide. This is big by area, not by wind speed. While the winds extend for an incredible area the winds in general are at Category 1 speeds near 90 mph. For areas in the tropics this may not sound so bad but for the Northeast this is a disaster since winds rarely get up to that strength with storms up there.

Something that also may be unprecedented here is the extreme snow threat from Sandy for the mountainous regions of West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Snow totals could be 1 to 2 feet in places when this storm is said and done. The other thing to consider with the size and scope of this storm is the storm surge that continues to roll in. Places like New York City and along the Jersey shore could be dealing with storm surge totals in excess of 11 feet thanks to the pure mass of water that will be coming in with the storm. This will create coastal flooding whereas the high rain totals will contribute to inland flooding. You'll hear about this storm for years to come... 765,000 customers are without power across the Northeast already and this storm is just cranking up.

How is this storm affecting us here in North Mississippi? We're just seeing cooler weather thanks to the large trough of cold air that's in place. This trough is the same one that's ingesting Sandy making it a very unique storm and pulling it into the Northeast. This cooler air is going to be sticking around for the foreseeable future but with some moderation. Highs won't get out of the lower 60's tomorrow and we'll finally break into the upper 60's on Wednesday for Halloween. Overnight lows tonight will be of concern since they'll be getting close to freezing, which will create a chance for some frost. Your complete Starkville forecast with these details and more are available in the video below!

10/27 - 5pm - Quiet in West Tennessee, Sandy Takes Aim

Ready for a REAL taste of fall? It's here.... and It's going to stick around for quite awhile. A large mass of cool air continues to work its way into West Tennessee this morning behind yesterday's cold front. That means temperatures today will be getting into the upper 50's across the region. By the time we get to late tonight and early tomorrow morning we'll be talking about mid to upper 30's for lows. Bundle up! High pressure will keep this cooler air locked in place through the week and sunshine will be plentiful as it has been in most places today. We'll need to watch for some frost in areas during the mornings starting on Monday as temperatures fall to near freezing overnight. High temperatures will slowly work their way to near 70 degrees by the end of the workweek.

Let's talk about Hurricane Sandy. It's a weak hurricane right now but the setup is more complicated than just that. As it moves toward the Northeast it will merge with a trough moving across the eastern half of the nation. This will transition the storm from a hurricane to what's called an extratropical storm. Basically this means that the storm won't feed off of warm water like a tropical system would. This will turn Sandy into the very, very large storm that its already beginning to become. Threats for wind damage, storm surge, and flooding will be possible for a broad swath of the Delmarva Peninsula through New England. New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington DC are included in this among many other locations. The storm surge issues will be amplified by the size of the storm, which moves more mass of water, and by the fact that this will be happening during a full moon, which maximizes tide. Check out the tropical storm force wind probabilities to the right... this is pretty significant when you consider there's a 60-70% of sustained tropical storm winds from Delaware to Long Island.

Another threat this storm poses is snow. West Virginia with its higher elevations will bear the brunt of the snow with 1 to 2 feet expected in areas. The latest run of the GFS model paints a very large area of 18"+ snowfall amounts through Tuesday evening. This could be crippling because there are still leaves on the trees that this heavy, wet snow will weigh down on snap limbs. Mass power outages are very likely whether you're in the wind/rain area in the Northeast or in the snow area in West Virginia.

In the video below you'll get a full dose of information on Hurricane Sandy and your latest West Tennessee forecast.

8/19 - 6pm - Tranquil Weather for the Workweek

Mississippi State University

It's that time of year again when I switch over blog post content to cover Mississippi and West Tennessee in place of the Louisville area. I do this for two reasons: 1) It's difficult to write about the day-to-day goings on of weather back home in Louisville when I'm taking a full college course load at Mississippi State that requires me to keep up with and forecast weather for the Golden Triangle area here in Mississippi and 2) I'm convinced that it is better to forecast for the area which you are currently living in because you're always aware (sometimes painfully) of how accurate your forecast is. If anything significant happens back home in Louisville I'll be sure to include it in my posts here over the next few months, but for now I'll be covering weather down here.

While it was supposed to be a rainy day across the Golden Triangle today we actually saw quite a bit of sunshine and nice weather. A front that has become stationary over Central Mississippi put us in a much drier environment and this has cut off most of the needed moisture for showers and storms to fire up. There's still a chance that a few isolated showers and storms will get going around the region but that's a potential that will be highest during the early morning hours according to the latest short-range guidance.

The trough that's brought us the front and the cooler temperatures this weekend will continue to do so for most of the workweek as it slides slowly eastward. A lack of surface moisture and building surface high pressure will stave off rain chances and even clouds for the most part until we get close to the weekend. Temperatures this week will be gradually rising through the mid 80's for highs until we get to Thursday. By then stronger southerly flow will be bringing in warmer, moister air from the Gulf and get us back to around 90 for highs as we go through the late week and the weekend. Shower and storm chances will be returning by the weekend.

Click image to see a larger view

The tropics have been fairly quiet as of late near the US coastline but there's potential for that to change next week. A disturbed area of weather in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is on a course that may take it toward the East Coast if the latest computer models are to be believed. It's way too early in the ballgame to discern whether or not this will be a threat to the US since it could curve back out to sea before hitting land or not strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane. This will be something to keep a close eye on since it could become Tropical Storm Isaac.

8/9 - 2:15pm - Severe Storm Threat Tonight

Small storms are popping up around the Louisville area after a fairly calm night that featured a few storms in Southern Indiana. The same trough of low pressure over the eastern half of the nation that's generating today's storm activity will see a potent burst of energy round the base of it late this evening into tomorrow morning. This piece of energy, which is really a small trough within the main trough over the east right now, is called a shortwave trough. This shortwave will have some fast winds aloft as it treks through Kentuckiana late this evening and that will along with a cold front moving through early tomorrow morning will trigger a threat of severe storms.

While scattered storms will be possible for most of today, the best timing for severe storms in Kentuckiana looks to be from 10pm to 4am. The main threats from the storms that go severe will be damaging winds and hail but any of these storms can have heavy rain and lightning. Since these storms will be hitting during the overnight period they won't have the punch that they could've had during the daytime. The tornado threat looks very low right now but as with any line of storms moving through there's a possibility that a kink in the line could form a small spin-up. A Slight Risk of severe weather has been issued for this evening through early tomorrow morning for the entirety of Kentuckiana. The good news with all of this is that much cooler air will be filtering in behind the cold front for Friday and the weekend!

8/4 - 2:30pm - Waking Up to Storms Tomorrow

Scattered storms are firing between Evansville and Louisville right now and are slowly trekking eastward. These aren't expected to become severe but some downpours and lightning are certainly a possibility in Louisville as they continue to develop. The chance for storms in the area should remain with us in Kentuckiana through the early evening.

More storms forming in Illinois and Missouri will be our next focus as they move into Kentuckiana during the early morning hours tomorrow. Some of these could be strong to severe since a trough moving through to our north will be bringing faster winds aloft to the area. This means that damaging winds will be the primary threat from these storms should they hold together for us during the early morning. The 6z NAM model run (right) was pretty bullish on these morning storms but the 12z that just came in was more subdued with their intensity. In either case it looks likely that a lot of folks will wake up to storms early tomorrow morning.

Storms could fire up during the afternoon tomorrow if the morning's storms clear out in time for instability to recover during the afternoon. Another limiting factor for this will be the cold front that will be moving through during the day tomorrow. Storms will fire along and in front of that boundary so its speed will determine who gets storms during the afternoon. Right now it looks like Louisville and areas to the south and east will be in the zone for storms tomorrow afternoon and it's worth noting that their coverage won't be anywhere near this afternoon's and tomorrow morning's storms. Both Kentuckiana and West Tennessee are under a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon as these storms fire up in the heating of the day with the cold front in play. Strong winds will again be the main threat here.

After the front moves through on Sunday temperatures will be in the upper 80's to near 90 for the start of the workweek in Kentuckiana and storm chances will be nonexistent until Thursday.

7/26 - 1:55pm - Kentuckiana Severe Weather Update

Kentuckiana is right on the edge of what could be a significant severe weather outbreak this evening. Nothing demonstrates this better than the Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather outlook, which puts us in a Slight Risk but has a 30% severe wind risk running right through the center of Louisville. The reason for this is that faster winds aloft are most prevalent to our north and east so more of a risk area (a Moderate Risk) is needed up there. These winds have the potential to power a large line or cluster of wind-driven storms that could possibly become a derecho just to our north if it sustains itself long enough.

A Severe Thunderstorm WATCH has gone up for areas northeast of Louisville but not including the city. This was needed because severe storms are already affecting areas near Cleveland right now and more will be forming in the near term across Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. I suspect a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued for the Louisville area at some point this evening since storms will come through a little later than areas to our north.

Storm timing in Kentuckiana should be after 5pm this evening. The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh model has storms rolling through the Louisville Metro area at around 7pm but this may vary a bit because this will be highly dependant on where storms fire along outflow boundaries and other surface features. The HRRR suggests that these will be either a broken or continuous line of storms which makes sense given that winds both aloft and near the surface will be from a westerly direction. This also means this could be a wind-driven line of storms so wind damage potential is relatively high here if storms get severe enough. Large hail will be a threat from any of the strongest storms. There may be more than one round of storms this evening in the area through 2 or 3 am since the cold front will not be passing through until that time. This might be a good time to secure your trash cans or any loose articles you have outside your house so that they don't end up in your neighbor's yard...

6/28 - 11:30am MDT - Waking Up in Nebraska

After storms in Northeast Colorado yesterday became contaminated by storms coming off the Front Range, we decided to head east to be ready for today's chase. After waking up in Ogallala, Nebraska this morning we're rested up for a relatively leisurely day without too much driving since we're already pretty much in our target area for the day. The Storm Prediction Center has a general thunderstorm risk out for Western Nebraska, Northeast Colorado, and Northwest Kansas today with a 5% severe wind risk.

The focus today will be a cold front that's slowly moving through the region today. Winds around this frontal boundary may shift out of the east a little bit and that's where we'll position ourselves since the best shear will be where that happens. Dew points will be in the 60's across Central Nebraska this afternoon with slightly lower readings to the west. These surface winds, while weak, and the moisture should be more than enough to get some storms going.

Winds aloft are a little less certain since they may change throughout the day. Early on this morning winds at 500 mb (18,000 feet) were almost westerly across the western half of Nebraska, but already we've seen a shift to the southwest. While not terribly strong, the winds up there could have just enough punch to get storms to become severe. Small embedded shortwaves within the flow may enhance these winds a bit in some areas too. By 6pm MDT tonight the RAP model (right) still has these winds out of the southwest aloft, so that's some good news. The thinking at this point is that the shear won't be high enough to keep storms from merging together and being clustered, but we'll see how that plays out.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for constant updates during our chase!

6/25 - 10:30am MDT - Great Faces. Great Places.

Today's blog post title is the South Dakota's state slogan. As you can probably gather by that, we're in South Dakota today! Southwesterly flow aloft at 500 mb (18,000 feet) will be present in the western half of South Dakota, northwest Nebraska, and Eastern Wyoming today as the general pattern we dealt with yesterday continues. While the winds aren't terribly strong, the RAP model is beginning to pick up on an area of enhanced speeds near 30-40 knots around parts of Western South Dakota and Northwestern Nebraska. If this enhanced area verifies there could be some better storms under it.

At the surface right now there are southeasterly winds across this area, but the more easterly of the wind vectors are favoring Western South Dakota right now. We'll see how this develops throughout the day as surface conditions continue to change. We'll want these more easterly wind vectors becuase they'll contribute to low-level wind shear that could possibly lead to rotating storms, should they form.

I say "should they form" because we're still dealing with some very warm temperatures aloft. These warm temperatures aloft, called "the cap", inhibit storm development because rising air parcels can't continue to rise buoyantly if the environmental air around them is warmer than they are. The good news here is that temperatures at the surface today will again be in the 90's to near or above 100 degrees. This will really heat up these surface air parcels so that they might shoot through the cap. All models I've looked at this morning have the cap breaking at some point in the early to mid afternoon, but where exactly this happens is still in question. The 14z RAP model has an interesting hole in the cap at around 4pm near Rapid City, but our current thinking is that the Black Hills near Rapid City will be a focus for storm development because they are a constant source of lift and thus a typical location for storm initiation.

To get some of the heating we'll need for storms to form today, we need to have a plentiful supply of sunshine. Right now we do have a layer of clouds over South Dakota that is inhibiting this right now, but western parts of the state are clearing out and it should hopefully leave us with blue skies later this morning. Storms should form sometime after 3pm this afternoon should things come together as forecast. The main threats will be wind and hail from any storm that forms, but we'll be on the lookout for some rotation in these storms as well. The Storm Prediction Center has a general thunderstorm risk for our target area today, but also mentions a 5% severe wind and hail risk.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates this afternoon!

6/24 - 10:35am MDT - The Chase Begins!

This morning we're heading toward Cheyenne, Wyoming from Denver as we continue to look at weather data coming in. Today's setup still looks marginal by most accounts, but there are a few small features that could cause a few isolated storms to go severe. For one, surface winds out of the east in Wyoming, Northeast Colorado, and Nebraska will generate upslope flow, which is the lift mechanism we need to get storms going.

These winds will also create some shear because they will be interacting with southwesterly winds at 500 mb (18,000 feet). The issue with this is that the faster winds at this level will be further north toward Rapid City, South Dakota instead of where the more favorable surface winds will be just to the south. In any case, the wind direction at 500 mb will be good enough to usher in the wind shear and maybe some drying of the air at that level to increase instability.

When you put the expected helicity (caused by wind shear) and the instability together for today, you get the Energy Helicity Index (EHI). According to the 14z RAP model, the EHI may try to ramp up a little bit in Northeast Colorado and it even breaks out a little bit of precipitation just west of there too. Surface heating is going to be massive since temperatures will be in the 90's and 100's in some places, so we're hoping this also helps overcome some of the warm temperatures aloft (the cap) so that isolated storms can develop. We're grasping for small features today since there isn't any one thing jumping out to get our attention, but so far it looks like a storm or two could fire on the elevation near Cheyenne. We'll also be watching an area closer to Rapid City, SD to see how things develop up that way.

Follow my continuous chase updates on my Twitter and Facebook accounts today!

5/24 - 12:35am CDT - We're in... Iowa?

We didn't think we'd be in Iowa tonight. The storms that formed yesterday (Wednesday) rushed eastward as the cold front in the region decided to push further east than expected. Unfortunately none of these storms really did much because they formed in a linear fashion and didn't have the moisture necessary to get too severe. One of the southern cells in the line just west of Omaha, Nebraska managed to be isolated for a while and generated a wall cloud that triggered a tornado warning. Our only option in this environment was to cross the Missouri River in Omaha and wait for the storms to come to us because it would not be good to have the storms outrun us while trying to find a way across the river. The storms slowed down and died out pretty much at that point so we threw in the towel for the day.

Tomorrow will likely be a travel day back to Kansas or Southern Nebraska as we await Friday's potential chase setup. Storms tomorrow will be up near the Great Lakes in Wisconsin and Michigan and we just don't chase there due to the distance from the Plains and lack of good chase environment up there. Strong capping should keep storms from going up in the central and southern Plains, but we'll keep an eye on that in case that changes. Friday's setup may be decent if capping aloft doesn't ruin it. A deepening trough out in California and hopefully some better moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico should create potential for severe weather. A strengthening low in Southeast Colorado/Southwest Kansas should provide ample surface wind support for rotating storms should this pan out as forecast. The Storm Prediction Center already has a 5% risk area for this in their 3-day severe weather outlook. I'm crossing my fingers that this setup will yield some good storms because Friday is my last day chasing in the Plains until late June!

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates this week.

5/21 - 11:55pm MDT - Nice LP Supercell Today

Today didn't turn out to be the best chase, but we made the best of it with the sighting of a nice low-precipitation (LP) supercell near Grande, New Mexico. This formed within a line of discrete storm cells that stretched from Southeast Colorado to Central New Mexico. The formation of these cells in a line among an environment characterized by northwest wind flow at 18,000 feet (500 mb) didn't make for the best conditions for severe storms, but a few of them did reach severe limits. Besides this low-profile supercell and possibly a couple others in the same line, an "out of the blue" classic supercell formed ahead of an eastward-advancing MCS (mesoscale convective system - line of storms) just west of Amarillo before being ingested by the actual MCS. It didn't form in the expected environment for this, so we were not in position to see this short-lived storm. More photos of the LP supercell we saw today are available on my Flickr and Facebook albums.

Our tentative plan for tomorrow is to head to the Valentine, Nebraska area to intercept a severe weather threat that may manifest up there as a large-scale trough begins affecting the Northern Plains. Many would consider this an "secondary" target area since higher dew points and better surface winds will be in North Dakota, but in this case the moisture up in North Dakota will likely be confined to an area closer to the surface since there will not be enough time for ample deep moisture to make it up that far north. Northern Nebraska should have some deeper moisture than North Dakota and even though less helicity (spinning motion in atmosphere) will be present in Nebraska, Energy Helicity Index values are still forecast to be elevated according to the Rapid Refresh model. We'll make a final determination based on data coming in tomorrow morning before heading out!

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates on our chase!

5/20 - 11:45am CDT - Texas Panhandle Today

We're on the road from Oklahoma City to the Panhandle region of Texas where storms are likely to form today. Right now we're watching a clear area on satellite near a cold front situated just south of a line from Childress to Lubbock, TX. This clearing should help to build instability for storms to form as heating from the sun is allowed to reach the surface. Winds and dew points at the moment are not terribly favorable, but the most recent RAP (Rapid Refresh) model does have surface winds turning more easterly during the afternoon bringing in more moisture.

Even though winds at the surface will likely be favorable, winds aloft at 18,000 feet (500 mb) will be weak and westerly to west-northwesterly. It would be preferrable to have winds at that level that are fast and from the southwest, so not having much of either of those components will be a limiting factor. Storms that form this afternoon could have some large hail and winds, but the tornado threat at the moment looks marginal given the lack of upper wind support and possibly lower dew points.

Given these factors, the Storm Prediction Center has decided to forgo issuing a severe weather risk for the area today and only has a general storm risk with mention of some isolated instances of severe storms. The trick today will be to find these isolated instances wherever the best environment for these sets up this afternoon.

The latest updates on our chase are available on Twitter and Facebook.

5/19 - 11:30pm CDT - New Tour Group, Chase Tomorrow

This morning Tour 2's guests departed and this evening we just finished up orientation and dinner with the guests on Tour 3. This past week we went 2,402 miles (3,866 kilometers) across Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, and Kansas. Everybody had a great time as we traveled from the Mexican border near Big Bend National Park in Texas all the way to Denver even though storms may not have been available to chase every day.

A rash of tornadoes southwest of Wichita, Kansas near Harper has us a little down this evening since they happened during our day to switch up tour groups in Oklahoma City. Unfortunately there was damage reported with these tornadoes, which seemed to be all rope-like based on the photos being posted via social media. The rope structure of these makes sense given the low moisture in the area which means that cloud bases were high. For tomorrow the setup does not look as favorable for tornadoes given the still marginal amount of moisture in the region and weaker upper-level winds, but our sights are set on Western Oklahoma and the Panhandle region of Texas as the cold front that triggered today's madness continues southward.

The Storm Prediction Center has a general thunderstorm risk with a 5% severe probability for the area in question tomorrow. They're not real optimistic about severe storms based on the weak upper-level and surface winds, but we'll see how that develops tomorrow. The one thing we have going is that the direction of the winds at the surface (mostly easterly) will contrast well with the mostly westerly winds at 500 mb (18,000 ft) for some directional wind shear. Good storms may be hard to come by on Monday, but as the trough that I mentioned in the previous blog post begins to move in I think our prospects will improve during the week.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest on our chase!

5/18 - 2:45pm CDT - Regarding Next Week's Chase

As we make our way back to Oklahoma City on our last day of this week's storm chasing tour, I'm looking over quite a bit of data for next week's severe weather potential. After a lengthy period of high pressure ridging across the Plains (A.K.A. no storms) we're finally seeing signs that a large-scale trough will begin to move onshore from the Pacific and begin to affect the Plains during the middle part of the week. A smaller trough will be coming through this weekend as well but not a lot of moisture and our inability to chase during its peak on Saturday due to our down day in Oklahoma City means it will not be discussed here.

This trough coming in next week will need some moisture to work with for severe weather to form. This is something we've had a problem with for a while now but it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will finally be "open for business" starting next week. As the trough begins creating southwesterly winds and diffluence aloft in Kansas extending into Northwest Oklahoma on Wednesday (5/23), southerly winds at the surface should begin to bring in some much-needed moisture. The degree to which this will happen is still very much up in the air at this point because the GFS model has been consistently overshooting actual dew points, meaning it's been too optimistic about moisture return. The European model does agree that moisture will begin flowing into the Plains on Wednesday, but to a lesser degree than the GFS on the right.

This setup will continue right into Thursday and Friday as the trough digs in and moisture continues to flow into the region. These two days may harbor better severe weather chances than Wednesday due to having more time for moisture to return. Given the possibility that small-scale weather phenomena like cloud shields and overnight storms could limit potential on any of these days it's very difficult to point out which of them will be the best for storm chasing. Not only that, but the aforementioned computer model issues and amount of time between now and the trough moving into the Plains creates an even bigger margin of error. It's safe to say right now that things are certainly looking more favorable synoptically (on a large scale) for severe storms, but calling for a tornado "outbreak" at this point wouldn't be logical due to the variability of all the smaller features involved. This setup certainly has our attention and we're keeping close watch! Our robotic streaming webcam has been sitting dormant since we haven't had any storms lately, but we're hoping that we can put it in action next week.

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