Sunday, February 28, 2010

2/28 - 3pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast

It may feel nice outside today but the chill will be back in Starkville for most of the week, along with some rain tomorrow. After an area of low pressure exits off the East Coast on Tuesday, we should clear out the clouds and precipitation. The rest of the week looks sunny and temperatures should slowly creep upward to near 60 by Friday.

Other than some possible light snow in Georgia and South Carolina on Tuesday, along with more snow in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, the national weather picture this week shouldn't be too far from the ordinary.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

2/23 - 5pm - MSU Forecast Video

Snow showers may mix in with light rain tonight as a disturbance from Texas makes its way through North Mississippi. We should clear out tomorrow and Thursday, but another question mark looms for Friday as either rain or snow could fall throughout the area. Right now I'm not expecting any accumulating snow, but be sure keep up with the latest forecasts!

Sunday, February 21, 2010

2/21 - 3pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast

We officially made it to 70 degrees today at MSU before the clouds began to set in. Some showers and a few storms are on the way for later this afternoon and this evening, which should decrease temperatures quite a bit. A few areas of light rain could stick around until the morning, but otherwise we should clear out tomorrow. An area of low pressure off the Gulf coast will spread rain and snow showers northward into Mississippi on Wednesday, but I don't think it will get far enough north to affect us. Temperatures will dip down into the 40's from Tuesday through Thursday, but we should recover into the 50's by the end of the week.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

2/16 - 5:15pm - MSU Forecast Video

The rain, snow, and cold weather is on the way out and more seasonable conditions will settle into North Mississippi this week. The next chance for rain happens this weekend when high pressure gives way to a low from the Plains states. Temperatures should remain in the 50's for most of the foreseeable future.

Sunday, February 14, 2010

2/14 - 2:30pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast... More Snow?

Happy Valentine's Day! It looks like we have another shot at some snow overnight tonight and into the early morning hours of tomorrow. All of North Mississippi is under a Winter Weather Advisory tonight and tomorrow as 1 to 2 inches of snow falls across the region after transitioning from a bit of rain. Another hazard with this system is the possibility for ice on the roads tomorrow morning as the wet roads flash freeze in temperatures around the mid 20's. Keep this in mind tomorrow as you're making your morning commute. The rest of the week should be fairly dry with warmer weather by Thursday. Rain is in the forecast for next weekend.

A lengthy winter storm is getting ready to affect Northern Kentucky and Southern Indiana this evening, including the Louisville area. From tonight through Wednesday, the folks back home could pick up over a half a foot of snow. Louisville has already broken their seasonal average snow total, so this storm will only add to an above-average season. Some areas up there could pick up a foot of snow!

Friday, February 12, 2010

2/12 - 4:30pm - Snow in Mississippi Today

It snowed quite a bit around Starkville today, but none of it really stuck to the ground because temperatures were just too warm. Locations to our south that received more precipitation were able to cool down enough for accumulating snow due to evaporative cooling. If the precipitation had taken a more northerly track last night and this morning, we might have had some accumulation. For a few hours this morning and afternoon we did have some moderate snow falling, which made for some photographic views around Mississippi State University's campus. Check out my video compilation from this morning below:

Be sure watch this video in HD by clicking switching to 720p or 1080p (for newer computers with fast connections).

Thursday, February 11, 2010

2/11 - 3pm - Southern Snow on the Way!

A major winter storm is on track to affect much of Mississippi this evening and tomorrow. The 12z GFS and NAM models have about 2 inches of snow for Starkville by the time this is all said and done. The 18z NAM that just came out lowered totals quite a bit, but I've noticed at least three times this season when the NAM fluctuated moisture placement just prior to a storm hitting an area. In other words, I'll stick with the 12z suite of models because they were in agreement and made the most sense. Here's a map of the 12z GFS's snow totals:

You'll notice how we're on the north end of the good snow accumulations, so any northward movement of this storm would significantly increase snow totals. We're in the 2-3 inch range on this specific output. Areas south of Jackson could receive up to 9 inches of snow in some spots, with 4-6 inch amounts common near I-20.

This storm is already crossing the border into Mississippi as we speak, so we're getting very close to the time where we throw out the models and start looking at radar trends:

Again, my forecast calls for 1 to 3 inches of snow tonight and tomorrow. Should this change, I'll post here on the blog, on Facebook, and on Twitter as well.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

2/10 - 3:10pm - New HPC Outlook

The HPC just issued a new snow outlook:

We're just north of the slight risk for 4" of snow in Starkville according to this outlook, but areas near Jackson are in the moderate to high risk areas, meaning they could see heavy snow down that way. Still quite a few details to be hammered out with this storm, so keep up with the latest forecast!

2/10 - 2:15pm - Update on Friday's Snow in Starkville

The computer models today have started trending a little further north with the track of the storm on Friday. This essentially means that we've gone from virtually no snow for Friday to a dusting now. If the models keep pulling the Gulf low with this storm further north, we would certainly see an accumulating snow on Friday, somewhere in the neighborhood of 1-4". This is a wait-and-see kind of game at the moment, but I think a more accurate storm track will be hammered out by tomorrow. An interesting development today has been the HPC's latest 4" snow risk product:

The slight risk for 4" of snow goes all the way up to Tupelo, MS, which you can see above depicted by the blue outline. This doesn't mean we'll see 4" of snow in Starkville, but it does mean that the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) is monitoring this northward shift. There are still many model solutions out there for this storm's track, but it does appear that the average track has shifted northward just a bit. We'll see how the next few model runs pan out.

I hope everyone back home in Louisville is enjoying the snow! The NWS's official snowfall total was 6.5", so it was a pretty big storm by Kentucky standards. Jefferson County Public Schools could be making a decision about school tomorrow by 5pm according to the Courier-Journal. With two days of school cancellations in Louisville already this week, a third day would certainly give the all the kids another day to play in the snow!

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

2/9 - 5pm - MSU Forecast Video... Snow?

There's still a chance of snow in Starkville on Friday, but it's not looking great on the computer models right now. Most models want to take the upcoming storm further south than anticipated, which robs most of Central and North Mississippi of the needed moisture for snow. It's still a few days out, so we have plenty of time for the computer models to come around to a more feasible solution. I'm thinking we'll see a northward shift in this system by tomorrow's model runs as more accurate sampling data comes gets fed into the computers. We'll see how it all works out! Keep up on my Twitter feed or Facebook page for the latest updates on this system.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

2/7 - 1:30pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast

This week's forecast is pretty rainy, but we may see some snow if conditions cooperate. Rain on Monday and Tuesday could get a little heavy, but I don't think we'll see any flooding issues. Precipitation could end as a few flurries, but no accumulation is expected. After sunny to partly sunny days on Wednesday and Thursday, an area of low pressure in the Gulf should move eastward, bringing precipitation to much of Mississippi. If the cold air from the north can hold its ground and if the precipitation from this system spreads far enough northward, then we will see snow on Friday. If either of these factors does not cooperate, then we would most likely see rain or little precipitation at all. The computer forecast models are having a very difficult time with this system and consistency between model runs is extremely low right now. I'll have more updates on this system throughout the week.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

2/2 - 5:15pm - MSU Forecast Video

Happy Groundhog Day! After a pleasant day tomorrow, rain should be falling in Starkville on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will drop into the 40's for highs, but the rain should clear out for the weekend. More rain, and maybe even a few snowflakes, are on the way for next week.