2/18 - 2pm - Somewhat of a Snowy Fizzle

Last night's model runs were coming in very bullish for snow in West Tennessee on Sunday morning and I was even putting together a graphic very early this morning that had 2-4" of snow in Northwest Tennessee. As the 6z model runs came in there was a pretty stark change in the forecast all because of one fact: two waves in the upper atmosphere were not phasing (or joining forces) as quickly as previously predicted. This means that the cold air from the northerly wave will not inject itself into the southerly one until it reaches Nashville. Without this cold upper-air support, the chance for snow dwindles considerably.

While some light accumulations are possible in Northwest Tennessee tomorrow morning, much of the region should remain plain rain with some mixed in snowflakes. A brief burst of snow may happen later on Sunday morning as this system pulls out of the area, but even in areas with accumulation it should not cause problems on the roads due to above freezing surface temperatures. Areas north and east of Nashville, however, will see the accumulating snow and some of it could be on the heavy side.

Once the rain and snow is gone later on tomorrow morning we should be left with cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the 40's across West Tennessee. There are a couple rain chances thrown in next week on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the rest of the week should be relatively warm and dry. Check out the video below for your complete forecast (Note: I left my TV tuner for my laptop in Mississippi so I don't have a longer copy of this video):

12/17 - 11:50pm - A Not So White Christmas

Positive NAO - http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/NAO

Christmas is just a week away and snow chances for many in the eastern half of the nation look pretty bleak. The next major system to pull through on Tuesday and Wednesday will produce snow in the Plains, but to the east it's expected to be all rain. A second low moving through the Deep South on Friday will bring more rain, but most of that will stay south of Kentucky and the heaviest south of Tennessee. After that point it looks pretty dry right through Christmas. Why so rainy and relatively warm lately? It has to do with the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO for short. When the NAO is negative, storms tend to ride up the East Coast or just west of the Appalachian Mountains. This is a recipe for snow for many across the East since these storms have cold air streaming in just to the north of their track. When the NAO is positive, storms begin deflecting northward to Canada before they reach the Mississippi River. This means that the cold air and snow with these storms stays out in the Plains. The NAO is in this positive phase right now and isn't forecast to go neutral or even negative until around the new year (see forecast and history chart to the right). Until we can get the NAO negative, I wouldn't bet on a winter storm for Kentucky, Tennessee, or much of anywhere else in the East.

23% of the United States is covered by snow at the moment, which is quite a bit lower than the 47.3% covered by snow at this time last year. Aside from Lake Effect snowcover in Pennsylvania and New York and snowcover in northern Maine, the East is snow-less.

A big winter storm is forecast to hit New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and Kansas on Monday and Tuesday as an area of low pressure cuts northeastward (because of the positive NAO as explained above) through the Plains. A Blizzard Warning (green color on right image) has been issued for Northeast New Mexico while the other areas are under a Winter Storm Watch. Areas in the core of the snowfall north of Amarillo, TX up through Dodge City, KS could get well over a foot of snow.

12/12 - 7pm - A Few Bits About Snow

While things have since quieted down snow-wise, it has been a very snowy start to the season in West Tennessee. Jackson, TN has had 3.3 inches of snow so far this season, which is an astounding figure given that only about 0.1 inches falls on average by this time of year. This total beats out the season totals in many northern cities, some of which are known for their heavy snowfall including Buffalo, New York and Bismarck, North Dakota. Check out the graphic on the left to see a full list of some of the cities that Jackson is beating out. The rain to snow chance on the 21st isn't showing up on the models right now because they're dissolving the upper-level low before it makes it past NW Arkansas, but it's something to keep an eye on. A few flakes may fly further north near Louisville, but even that's not going to be a big deal according to the models. Another system packing precipitation and cold air may try to roll through a couple days before Christmas too, but that's way to far down the road to make guesses for any location at this point.

Speaking of snow, did you know that the Grand Canyon in Arizona gets more snow than Minneapolis, Minnesota? It's true! You may think of Arizona as a dry and hot state, but the higher elevations in the northern regions near Flagstaff get quite a bit of snow. Grand Canyon Village, AZ at the top of the canyon is expected to get 4 to 10 inches of snow by Wednesday morning while Flagstaff could get 12 to 16 inches. These areas are under a Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning respectively.

10/22 - 12:30pm - Warmer Temperatures in West TN, then Snow?

Jackson, TN bottomed out at 32 degrees this morning, which is two degrees warmer than our low temperature yesterday but still very chilly. We'll warm things up gradually around West Tennessee this weekend with 60's for highs today, 70's for both tomorrow and Monday, and 80's for Tuesday. What a warm-up! A cold front coming through on Wednesday night will generate some thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday, possibly into Friday as well. This system has slowed down on the computer models a little bit, but I think we should have all the rain out of here by Friday evening. It will be MUCH colder behind this front and as NWS Memphis points out, there's even a hint of some hypothetical snow on the computer models with this system:

IN FACT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUB 540 DAM. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THEN IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OBVIOUSLY THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY CONSIDERING THAT WE ARE STILL IN LATE OCTOBER.

Honestly I don't think much if any snow will make it to the ground on Thursday night, but it could be close as some very cold air filters in behind that cold front. Check out some video from this morning's edition of Good Morning West Tennessee on WBBJ below:



I'll be on the 6pm and 10pm shows this evening (which will likely air a few minutes later than their assigned times due to football on TV), so be sure to tune in and check out the latest changes in your forecast!

1/10 - 2pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast - 900th Post!

Here's a fresh Mississippi State University 7-day forecast, the first of 2010:


It's a relief that temperatures will finally be getting above freezing this week. I don't see any snow in the forecast, but heavy rain may become an issue by the weekend. Until then, expect sunny skies and highs in the 40's and 50's.

I'm proud to announce that this is my 900th blog post. I started this blog in January 2007 with the hope that it would teach me more about weather and mass communication. What I didn't expect was the amount of people who would actually look at it and where it would take me. I've had over 27,500 visits since 2007 and an average of 85 per day. That comes out to around 600 visits to this blog every week! Thanks to all my viewers for supporting me through over the years. I plan to keep this blog going for many more years to come!

1/8 - 4pm - Bitter Cold!

We may have missed out on the snow here in Starkville, but the cold certainly hit us hard last night. Here's this weekend's forecast:


That's right, no above freezing temperatures until Sunday at the earliest. Many have asked me why MSU missed the brunt of the winter storm yesterday. The answer is quite simple: Temperatures were warmer than forecast on the computer models. Temperatures at the surface were cold enough for snow to stick during some points of the morning yesterday, but warmer than expected temperatures aloft changed most of the snow to rain and sleet. Only a few miles north of MSU the dominant precipitation type was snow, especially in places like West Point and Tupelo. This is a classic example of how hard it is to forecast snow. A degree or two and a few miles can make a big difference!

Be sure to bundle up if you're out this evening, because temperatures will get down into the lower teens again tonight. Walking to class this morning was brutal by Mississippi standards. Temperatures were in the 15-17 degree range and winds were gusting to around 20, making the windchill dip into below zero territory. We should see a warm-up next week, so getting around campus should become bearable again!

Jefferson County Public Schools back home in Louisville closed today because of the first major accumulating snow of the season up there. Louisville received between 2.5 to 4 inches, making some back roads pretty hazardous. Here's what it looks like right now out my window at home:


Pretty sight, eh? We'll see if Louisville gets anymore snow next week.

12/26 - 2:15pm - Still Watching for New Year's Snow

I hope that everyone had a wonderful Christmas yesterday and that the lack of snow around here didn't get anyone down in the dumps.

As we shift our focus to the new year, we may also have to shift our focus to a chance of snow in Louisville. Over the past week, the long-range GFS computer model has been showing a storm tracking through the Gulf states. While the moisture and precipitation with this storm has been suppressed to the south on most model runs, I'm starting to see the (this) season-typical northward trend in the track of this storm.

The Euro model has this storm tracking from the Gulf Coast to Virginia, which would be a fairly decent track for us to have snow in Kentuckiana if enough moisture accompanies the storm. My worry is that there may not be enough cold air in place to counter the warm air being brought north by the storm, and this may negatively affect our snow chances. It's still too early to tell if this will indeed be a problem, but at least the storm track is good at this point.

Basically, the graphic from the last post with the potential storm tracks of this system still applies. There are a lot of factors like phasing, the polar vortex, and model-to-model differences that need time to get hammered out. I'd say this is our best chance for snow so far this season, and I think this is certainly a system that bears watching.

12/21 - 12:45pm - Christmas Rain, New Year's Snow?

Unless there are any major changes in the computer models in the next 24 hours, I think we're in for some potentially heavy rain on Christmas Eve in Louisville. The rain should taper off on Christmas Day, ending as a few snow showers or flurries if we get lucky. There could even be some thunder on Christmas Eve if convection gets going around here. This same storm will give places like Omaha and Lincoln, Nebraska a nasty winter storm with dangerous amounts of ice and snow. I know everyone in Louisville wanted a white Christmas, but quite honestly it's better to have the rain then have another ice storm on our hands during the holidays.

The reason we're missing the snow is because of a lack of high pressure support in Canada. Earlier computer models were forecasting a strong high pressure "block" that would drive this storm southward, but later models have since weakened the effect of this.

On to the next storm... The long range GFS has been consistently displaying some sort of potential New Year's snowstorm for the region. There may even be two storms around this period to watch based on the current runs, so we'll have to watch what happens. It's extremely early to be calling for snow or rain for this time period, but I do believe that the pattern will be better suited for snow here next week. So we have the storms, but now we just need some high pressure in Canada/North US to keep them south of us. Today is only the first day of winter, so don't give up on snow yet!

12/12 - 11:45pm - Looking for Snow

I know many of us here in Kentuckiana are waiting for the first big snow of the season. While we generally don't see much snow around Louisville in December, the pattern right now in my opinion is very ripe for an early season snowfall. The long range computer models (GFS & Euro) heat things up this weekend and early next week, but temperatures quickly turn downhill again by the middle of next week. We may even see a small bit of snow next weekend with a possible clipper system. The southern storm track, the one that brings most of our snowfall, has been and will continue to be very active throughout the arrival of this new batch of arctic air next week. Receiving snow in Louisville is all about timing, which means we have to have an abundance of cold air in place as a low pressure system tracks to our south and east, preferably along the mountains of Eastern Kentucky. Having one of these components out of place would mean rain or ice for us here in Louisville.

Many have asked: Does it look like we'll have a white Christmas? The answer is maybe. The possibility for light snow between now and the 25th looks pretty good right now, but getting a big storm in here will be tough. The GFS computer model has been hinting at some sort of snow event around Christmas for a couple days now, but accuracy that far out is very low. I'd say our chances for a white Christmas are probably the best since 2004, when we had a crippling snow/sleet system dump over a foot of snow in Louisville and Southern Indiana on the 22nd and 23rd of December. Just keep in mind that the pattern is ripe for snow, but that the specifics are blurry at this point.

If you're desperate to see some snow, head across the Ohio River to Paoli Peaks in Southern Indiana. They've been able to generate enough machine-made snow to open for skiing this weekend and they should be able to keep that snow on the ground through the warm spell we'll see early next week. Guess it's time to hit the slopes!

[Courier-Journal | "Paoli Peaks to open for skiing early"]

3/1 - 12pm - Meteorological Spring!

Welcome to the first day of Meteorological Spring! March 1st marks the beginning of what we call spring in meteorology, which runs through March, April, and May. Astronomical Spring starts on March 20th, when the Vernal equinox occurs and the sun crosses the equator.

It may be the first day of spring in a meteorological sense, but it sure didn't feel like it. We had a dusting of snow last night in town, causing many accidents on the interstates when temperatures dropped below freezing and existing water and snow froze to the roadways. We got pretty lucky considering how much snow fell in the south yesterday:



You can see on the map that areas just north of Memphis got pounded with over a foot of snow. Memphis itself received a wide range of snow totals, from around 3 to 11 inches. Other parts of the south are still getting snow, especially areas around Atlanta right now.

Temperatures will soar into the 60's later this week and rain chances look slim to none at this point. As far as the rest of this month goes, I don't think we're done with the snow. The long range GFS is pointing at a roller-coaster pattern with plenty of precipitation to go around. I really don't know if we'll get another big storm or not, but this is the time of year when surprises happen... like last March:



Take a look at the new blog banner if you haven't noticed it... there are also a few minor layout changes I made as well.

1/6 - 6:30pm - Well, What Do We Have Here?

(This will be a short post... final exams this week to study for!)

First off, the freezing rain thankfully went north this morning. This was not good for areas in South Central Indiana, but it spared the sprawling Louisville morning rush from any problems. We simply were 1 or 2 degrees too high for this to happen.

The 12z GFS shows a possible snowstorm for next Tuesday here, with some definitely cold air coming into the area. The storm was vastly different on the 18z run, with no snow for us. We'll see if we can replicate the snowy solution in later runs tonight and tomorrow.

We won't see more than a few flurries or rain showers tomorrow, so this rain system is pretty much out of here with little consequence to us winter-weather wise.

1/5 - 4pm - Winter Weather ADVISORY

The National Weather Service has placed Jefferson and surrounding counties under a Winter Weather ADVISORY for tonight and into the morning tomorrow. As a storm comes up our way from the south tonight, freezing rain could fall and accumulate on surfaces. While I don't think we'll see more than a tenth of an inch of accumulation, I still urge you to be careful during the commute tomorrow morning. Bridges and overpasses will be the main issue here, but we're not expecting an ice storm or anything close to that severity. Everything should turn to plain rain by late morning. Again, this won't be a big issue, but it bears watching and being cautious.

Rain will continue into the afternoon tomorrow and then turn to snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Accumulations will stay under 1 inch and most will probably see a dusting on Wednesday morning, if anything at all. Clear and cold weather will dominate for the balance of the workweek, with rain expected on Friday evening into Saturday.

Looks like we'll see a couple chances for snow next week. Cooler air will be coming into the area, so I think this could be our best shot for snow so far this season. It's too early to pinpoint exactly when we'll see snow and how much, but a couple of systems have been making an appearance on the long range GFS for a little while now. More details to come later this week on this.

1/4 - 7:15pm - Still Looks Like Mostly Rain

We've seen a slight shift east in the low track for this storm on Tuesday/Wednesday, but it really hasn't had too much effect on our precipitation type. If there were some cooler air to work with, this would have made a bigger difference. We're still generally on the edge of the rain/snow line, but we'd have to see a 100 mile shift southeast in the track of this storm to get to the snow side. All in all, we're still a little ways out, but it's looking less likely that we'll see much snow out of this.

We're still on to see some snow showers on the backside of the system on Wednesday, but I'm not banking on anything more than a dusting in terms of accumulation. There's simply not enough moisture in the cold air behind the system to cause any concern at this point. So, the forecast from yesterday still holds... unless the models start trending east more and giving us more cold air to work with.

It looks like we'll still see cooler temperatures after the passage of this storm, but maybe not as cold as once thought. Still some storms to deal with in the long range, so don't give up if you want snow!

1/1 - 2:15pm - Happy New Year!

I'm pulling my hair out at the moment looking at all the forecast models for Tuesday's storm. The GFS has flip-flopped on low placement twice in the last 36 hours and all the rest of the models are playing the same games. Right now I'm leaning toward a mostly rain solution based on a loose trend in the models of the low going to our northwest, but confidence is extremely low in that forecast. The hypothesis that the GFS would correct itself and place the low further north was right, but it put the low too far north for our liking! I think this is the time to sit back and relax while the models play their games and take a closer look at this during the weekend.

In the meantime, we're looking at highs in the 40s through the weekend. Rain will come through Saturday night into early Sunday, with the system I just talked about showing up at our doorstep by late Monday night into Tuesday.

Have a great New Year's Day 2009!

12/26 - 11:30am - More Wet Weather

I hope everyone had an enjoyable Christmas!

Scattered showers are moving through the area now and should be on the decrease for the next few hours. A slight chance of a shower exists for tonight, but Saturday night will be the best chance for significant rain. A line of potentially severe thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon, affecting mainly areas in Missouri and Arkansas. As the night falls and this line heads east, it should weaken and give us mostly rain with a few claps of thunder on Saturday night.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be very warm for this time of year. Today will see a high near 63 and tomorrow could go higher than 70 degrees! If we shoot past 69 tomorrow, we'll break a record.

Obviously this is not the time to be talking snow when temperatures are this high. We've been stuck with this ridge here in the southeast while a trough out west is producing cold weather and snow out there (remember when Las Vegas got snow last week?). I think we're experiencing an early version of the January thaw that many climatic forecasts back in the fall were predicting. The GFS has been pretty consistent in showing the return of cold air and at least a little bit of snow in the long range, but I'm not impressed with the strength of the trough it wants to give us. Its early to be talking specifics about any of this, but I think more seasonal weather will come back into the area in a couple weeks, if not earlier.

12/19 - 5pm - Windy and Wild

We reached a high of 69 this afternoon, which is most certainly rare for this time of year. A Wind Advisory is currently in effect and winds gusted up to 40mph earlier this afternoon. We should see winds die down as and temperatures drop throughout the evening (we're already down over 10 degrees from where we were around 1pm).

Temperatures will top out near 50 tomorrow with a little bit of rain in the afternoon and a bit of light snow in the evening. As we dive below freezing for a high on Sunday, a few flurries are possible. We'll be below freezing for Monday as well, but we'll rise to the mid 30's for Tuesday.

The GFS is really pumping in some warm air for Christmas Eve and it looks like we'll see heavy rain. Oh no! The rain should be out of here by Christmas Day. This is far from being set in stone, but I haven't seen anything to convince me that this area of low pressure will go south and give us a white Christmas. I'll keep watching, but I'm not optimistic for snow at this point.

Meanwhile, a nasty winter storm is causing havoc in the Midwest and Northeast. Cities like Chicago and New York are having problems with cancelled flights and heavy snow... click here to read more.

12/18 - 6pm - It's 6 Days Away, But I Can Smell Rain Already

First off, rain is on the radar and on the way. We'll see at least a few showers tonight and possibly some heavier rain early tomorrow morning and into the afternoon hours as well. Lighter rain returns for Saturday afternoon, and could end as some snow showers on the backside of the system on Sunday morning. Temperatures near 50 for Friday and Saturday should cease as the cold front comes through, with a high near 30 for Sunday. Frigid temperatures will continue for next week.

On to the elephant in the room, the possibility of snow for Christmas. The latest model runs of the GFS have been utterly disappointing with mostly rain, if not all rain, for the whole Christmas Eve system. This trend started on the 18z run last night, as I alluded to in the last post, and is rearing its ugly head in all runs today. The Louisville NWS office is unsure of what to call for in their forecast discussion in terms of precipitation type, but they do keep temperatures cold and the precipitation type as snow on their 7-day forecast. I admire how they're sticking to their guns on this one, so maybe we still have some hope. We're 6 days out and model accuracy at this point downright stinks for complex low systems like this. I'd give this some time before I lose all hope, but just know that things are on a downswing at the moment for a white Christmas.

12/16 - 6:30pm - Was That a Hole on the Radar?

It was indeed a sad morning for snow lovers as everyone woke up to just a little bit of sleet. I recognized a trend southward trend in this storm starting around 10pm last night, but I figured it would correct itself. Add to that the fact that we had precipitation coming northeast from Owensboro that dissipated before it got here and then reformed in Oldham County. The result was what looked like a hole in the storm, right over the Louisville Metro. Both of these items led to the demise of the storm in the immediate Jefferson County area, but areas near Elizabethtown and Frankfort made out with around 4 to 5 inches of snow because of this. We only got a dusting of snow and a brief period of sleet and freezing rain last night and this morning.

We're pretty much done with this storm, with only a trace amount of freezing rain left to fall. We'll clear out the precipitation, but not the clouds tomorrow. Highs should range in the mid 30s. A round of thunderstorms could come through on Thursday night and Friday as a reinforcing shot of cold air comes in. We'll see yet another rollercoaster of temperatures for the end of the week, with 55 on Friday and then mid 40s on Saturday.

I'll keep my eyes peeled on the computer models to see if we can get any REAL snow in here, snowlovers. For those who despise the flakes, you're in luck for the next few days.

12/5 - 4pm - Frigid Temps Around the Area

Sorry for all the late posts this week... it's been crazy around here! I promise to have a video forecast by tomorrow afternoon. There was no video forecast last weekend due to my being out of town.

The low in Louisville Metro was 19 degrees this morning and it really did feel that cold! We're only at 29 degrees right now, so not too much increase in temperature occurred at all today. We'll stay in the 30's for the weekend, with a possible flurry or snow shower tomorrow night. We're still on track for our rain/snow mix on Monday night through Wednesday. The models are still warm on this, so I'm thinking little or no accumulation in the periods of snow that we do see during that time frame. It still looks pretty cold for the rest of next week after Thursday and well into the week after. If we're going to get some snow, I'd wager on some within that cold period sometime. Still too early to say exactly when and how.

11/30 - A Mix of Rain and Snow

With temperatures reaching into the mid 40s today, I'm not real optimistic about snow accumulation tonight as rain changes over to all snow. We might not even get below freezing tonight, so I doubt we'll see any accumulation of snow or ice on the roads. Bear in mind that bridges and overpasses could still have some slick spots tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon as temperatures drop.

Overall, expect from a dusting to an inch of snow on the grass by tomorrow and a few possible travel issues for the morning and afternoon commutes. After a high near 40 on Tuesday, temperatures will rise to about 50 degrees on Wednesday. Unfortunately, a reinforcing shot of cold air arrives by Thursday. That will send highs into the upper 30's for the rest of the week, not to mention a few snow showers that could accompany it.