Today was my first day of broadcast meteorology lab here at Mississippi State. Most of you probably realize that I have a bit of a head start in this class, but there is always something to learn and I really enjoy helping others learn in a field that I love so much. Each of us started out the semester with an informal "first forecast" to break the ice and get those first-time jitters out of the way. Check out my forecast below:
It's not bad out there in Starkville today since those dewpoints are staying around 60 degrees and lower. We'll see a gradual return to the high humidity after tomorrow as Gulf moisture begins to filter back into the region. About the most exciting thing that will happen this week, excitement being used relatively here, is an upswing in rain chances toward Friday and the weekend as a cold front approaches from the north.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Hurricane Irene is certainly causing some drama both over the airwaves and along the East Coast where thousands are preparing for what could be that area's first hurricane strike in a while. This will also be the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Ike in 2008. States of emergency have been declared by the governors of North Carolina, Virginia, New Jersey, Maryland, and New York as the storm takes aim at the region. Areas from Wilmington, North Carolina to Cape Hatteras to Norfolk, Virginia will likely take the brunt of Irene as it makes landfall as a Category 2 or 3 storm on Saturday. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the entire North Carolina coast and a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Virginia to New Jersey. On the satellite image to the top left you'll notice that Irene does not have a very apparent eye. This is because the storm has just completed an eyewall replacement cycle, which temporarily limits both the strength of the storm and the appearance of an eye. The eye will likely become much easier to see over the next 24 hours and the intensity of the storm will correspondingly increase.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
This morning I did weather on WBBJ-TV ABC 7 for the first time since April. It's great to be back after a long summer break! Showers and storms that sank southward from Missouri stayed together longer than expected, so a few light showers crossed into West Tennessee earlier this afternoon along with stronger storms in the Memphis area. Additional scattered storms are possible throughout the afternoon and evening before more widespread storms cross through the region tonight through tomorrow. The passage of a cold front will mean an end to the rain by Sunday night and give way to a rather nice day on Monday. Daily storm chances are back in the forecast by mid week. Check out my forecast from this morning in the video below:
Monday, August 15, 2011
|Radar image from NWS Louisville|
With some schools still lacking power, Jefferson County Public Schools has cancelled classes tomorrow after already cancelling the first day of school for the academic year today. I'm not sure if JCPS has ever canceled the first day of school before, but this is certainly not the first time they've had to cancel due to power outages (wind storm of September '08 and major ice storm of January '09 are prime examples). A couple more nice weather days in Louisville will help with power restoration and tree clearing efforts.
Mississippi State Weather
I'm back at Mississippi State University for the semester and classes begin on Wednesday. The humidity been much lower in Starkville today since the passage of a cold front yesterday. Unfortunately reality will gradually return this week as temperatures surge back into the 90's and humidity increases as return flow transports Gulf moisture northward again. Daily small afternoon storm chances will return on Thursday or so.
Return to TV in Jackson, TN
Thursday, August 11, 2011
|SE Louisville Webcam|
|Trough position by Sunday AM|
The Storm Prediction Center says the severe risk around the Ohio Valley is conditional at this point due to uncertainty with cloud cover and moisture return to the area (both very valid points), but these factors likely won't be known until Saturday's morning storms clear out. Nevertheless, they've issued a Slight Risk for severe weather for areas just southeast of Louisville and mention that more areas might be added.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
I've been watching the radar and satellite image for the past couple hours and it appears that ongoing storms dropping southeastward near Indianapolis may send out a some outflow boundaries toward Louisville over the next few hours. Outflow boundaries are like miniature cold fronts created by the cool air flowing out from a thunderstorm's downdraft. They also can cause storms to develop because they are a source of lift and that's why they're so important when forecasting short-term storm development. Since we have a little bit of wind shear and a very unstable atmosphere over the Louisville area right now, a kick from one of these southward-moving outflow boundaries may cause a few isolated storms to develop this evening. Storms may also form without the boundary if another small-scale feature or surface heating gets things going first. So, a vast majority of the area will stay dry, but if you happen to get under one of these wildcard isolated storms get ready for some heavy rain and wind.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
|Ridge breaking at 500mb on Wed.|
So far we've had 40 days with highs at 90 or above in Louisville, with 18 consecutive days at 90 or above on our current streak. At this point last year we were counting 46 days in the 90's so far, so it seems this summer is a fairly close repeat of last.