4/11 - 7pm - Rough Day of Severe Weather, Sunshine to Come

We've had 7 reports of tornadoes so far today across the South as storms really ramped up ramped up earlier in the afternoon. One of these tornadoes caused injuries and a fatality in Kemper County, MS as it moved through there and eventually it moved through Noxubee County into the Macon area. Thankfully the severe weather has pushed off to the east and we'll begin working on clearing out the skies over the next few hours. Check out my latest CampusConnect forecast below for all the details!

4/2 - 10:45pm - After Some Rain, a Warm Weekend in Mississippi

A stationary boundary stretched across Mississippi is giving folks to the south quite a bit of warm weather this evening but we're cooling down here in Starkville as we remain on the north side of it. An associated area of low pressure currently in Texas will move through the region later this week, triggering showers on Wednesday and Thursday. While temperatures will take a small tumble on those days we'll warm up vigorously into the 70's by the weekend. Check out your CampusConnect Forecast below for all the details!

2/14 - 11:55pm - A Curveball Forecast for MSU Baseball

Ready for some baseball? Tomorrow marks the start of the collegiate baseball season here at Mississippi State and the weather will cooperate... for some of the games this weekend. Friday looks good with temperatures in the mid 50's and partly cloudy skies but unfortunately a cold snap on Saturday will bring the chill for the game on Saturday as temperatures only reach into the mid 40's. Look for a bit of recovery for Sunday's double-header games. Next week brings us more rain as we're just drying out from all the rain we had earlier this week. Yuck. The only redeeming value to this will be the warmer temperatures that will accompany the system generating the rain. Get your full Mississippi State forecast in the video below!

2/5 - 10:30pm - Dense Fog Tonight

Dense fog is already beginning to develop across North Mississippi and West Tennessee as temperatures fall for the overnight hours. A Dense Fog Advisory (see right image) has just been issued for the entire region until 9am CST since visibility could drop below a quarter mile at times. Please be careful as you're out and about in the early morning because this fog will make it difficult to see cars in front of you where it's the most dense. As we mix out the fog later on in the morning we should be left with a beautiful day and clear to partly cloudy skies. Highs tomorrow could reach into the upper 60's in a few spots! As we head into tomorrow night clouds will be on the increase but by Thursday rain moves in. The rain will stick around through some of Friday as well but at least we'll get a break by Saturday. More rain... just what we needed around here, right? Check out the video below for your complete CampusConnect forecast!

1/31 - 11:15pm - Snowy to Our North, but Clear Here!

An Alberta Clipper system moving through the Lower Ohio Valley is spreading snow all the way down to I-40 in Tennessee this evening. Those of you in Starkville hoping we might get some flakes tonight will be disappointed to know that this system is running out of steam over the Jackson, TN area and will have trouble even generating any clouds for us this evening. Behind the cold front associated with this Clipper is some cooler air that will be working in overnight. This means we'll get down into the mid 20's by morning in the Golden Triangle and only reach into the lower 40's for highs tomorrow. Ouch! Luckily we'll have full sunshine as we end the workweek but a few showers are poised to move through the area for the early half of Saturday. Check out the video below for your detailed CampusConnect forecast!

12/2 - 4:15pm - A Needed Shot of Rain on the Way

A few brief showers scraped across northern portions of West Tennessee this morning as expected. The disturbance causing those morning showers has left behind some cloud cover across the region with peeks of sun here and there. More of the incredibly warm weather that we've seen for the past few days arrives tomorrow just in time for the Jackson Christmas Parade at 6:45pm. 75 still looks like a good bet for a high temperature during the afternoon as we start the workweek on Monday.

Much of the area is experiencing moderate drought conditions right now. Even though the growing season is pretty much over it is still important for rainfall to keep up so that we don't have an already-in-place drought come spring. The good news here is that we have a chance for a good soaking rain on Tuesday with over a half inch possible in most places. The front causing this rain will leave behind only slightly cooler temperatures in the 60's, which is still warmer than average for this time of year. The next round of rain on Friday and Saturday is the one to watch as it could bring much, much cooler weather to the area next weekend behind it.

Check out the video below from yesterday night's newscast on WBBJ for your full forecast!

11/26 - 2:15pm - Rainy Start to the Week, Severe to the Southwest

Had enough of the rain in Starkville this morning and afternoon? Just wait, there's more! An area of moist air ahead of a cold front that will move through tonight is inspiring the development of numerous showers and those will eventually lead to some thunderstorms late tonight. Some of the storms to our southwest could be severe but it's looking more and more like we won't have quite enough moisture and instability to get that kind of storm activity closer to the Golden Triangle. A Slight Risk of severe weather has been issued for areas west of I-55 due to the possibility for severe storms toward Jackson and Vicksburg. Once the cold front sweeps through tonight it'll leave us with cloudy skies for a good chunk of the day tomorrow before things clear out for Wednesday and Thursday.

The weekend will feature some clouds and possibly a shower here and there but overall we'll be seeing one warm end to the month of November as temperatures get close to and surge past 70 degrees! Check out the video below for your detailed CampusConnect forecast.

11/12 - 2pm - A Frigid Fall Return in Progress!

The clouds are clearing earlier than expected across Mississippi, which is good news for those looking for a more picturesque day outside. Unfortunately this will not save us from an incredible drop in temperature this evening across the Golden Triangle. The cold front that came through earlier this morning is allowing northwesterly winds to bring in an arctic air mass that will help plunge us to around the freezing mark by early tomorrow morning. If you're looking for something a little warmer than that, just wait. Temperatures will break into the 60's again by Wednesday as sunny skies continue to stick around through most of the week. Your full forecast with all the details is available in the video below!

11/5 - 2:15pm - Quick Shot of Rain on the Way in Mississippi

Showers and a few storms are moving eastward through the I-55 corridor of Central Mississippi right now. The eastern extent of these showers and storms are just about to enter Oktibbeha County and we'll keep them around until we get to midnight or so this evening. Temperatures overnight will get only into the mid 40's thanks to the rain and cloud cover, but get ready for cooler temperatures for election day tomorrow with highs near 60.

An interesting aspect of tonight's rain is that the area of low pressure associated with it will be the same one that will exit off the east coast of Florida and blow up to be a significant Nor'easter by Wednesday. This comes on the heels of Hurricane Sandy causing devastation in the Northeast so folks up there are not looking forward to the one-two punch. This Nor'easter will certainly hamper clean-up efforts but the good news is that it will not be as strong or as long-lived as Sandy.

Full sunshine will return to Mississippi by Wednesday and temperatures will recover well into the 60's to 70 or better by the weekend. We'll be watching a storm system make its way through the middle of the country next weekend that has the potential to impact us on Monday of next week. It's not entirely clear how severe the storms we'll have will be but just keep in the back of your mind that we could be off to a stormy start next week. Check out the video below for your complete forecast for the Golden Triangle area.

10/1 - 2pm - Gloomy and Rainy for Now, but Sunny Days are Ahead!

Finally, a break from the relentless rain this weekend. We're still holding on to a few showers across the northern half of Mississippi and chances for those will stick around until tomorrow morning. After the low that brought us all the rain moves northward during the day tomorrow get ready for the sun to return and for temperatures to go up! A few more clouds will move in toward the weekend as another cold front moves in, but it appears at this time that the front will pass through with out giving us rain. Behind it will be some cooler temperatures so more fall weather will return after all the sunshine and 80's this week. Check out the video below for your complete CampusConnect forecast.

9/17 - 2pm - Tropical Rains Overtake Mississippi

Like heavy rain? Neither do I. That's what we have going on right now across most of Mississippi as an approaching cold front and a low moving onshore from the Gulf of Mexico are combining to give us a good soaking. The downpours and storms across the Golden Triangle area of Mississippi are definitely tropical in nature because moisture is streaming in right from the Gulf as the low pressure center out there continues to move our way. Storms will continue, and rain be at times heavier, this evening across the northeast quarter of Mississippi. Storms will remain likely tomorrow morning but thankfully the front will be moving through at that time and replace the rainy, tropical air with much more pleasant dry and cool air from the north. The middle of this week behind the front looks beautiful! Check out your full Mississippi State University CampusConnect forecast below for all the details on this week's forecast.



Like the new intro video and 5 Day Forecast background in the above forecast? I've been working on those graphics for the past few months and we're rolling them out today as we kick off the official start of our CampusConnect forecasts for the year here at MSU.

9/16 - 2:40pm - Rainy Start to the Week in West Tennessee

As promised, a few light showers are moving across West Tennessee and they will become more numerous and heavier this afternoon. Not everyone will see rain but those that do can expect some gentle rains with not much accumulation and possibly a clap of thunder. Tomorrow is a different story though as a larger, more potent upper-level disturbance moves through and generates heavier rains and possibly some thunderstorms. This will be a day when most folks see rain with some areas, especially closer to the Mississippi border, seeing over an inch of rainfall accumulation. Tuesday morning will feature some showers but the cold front at the surface that will be moving through with the upper-level disturbance should be moving east of the area throughout the day. The rain and clouds will be on their way out with the front, so expect the second half of your Tuesday to be much nicer than the first. Cooler temperatures behind the front mean highs in the mid 70's and lows possibly into the 40's by Wednesday morning. That's some fall-like weather right there! Check out my full forecast from last night's 10pm show on WBBJ below.



If you watched the video you probably saw some changes from previous ones that I've posted. WBBJ debuted an all-new HD weather graphics system that has full 3D rendering capabilities. It's very slick, easy to use, and most of all, fun! The 3D zooms to Jackson's tonight and tomorrow forecast I built from scratch between shows yesterday and it was pretty amazing what the machine could do with so little time.

This is also my 2nd anniversary with WBBJ. A lot has changed since I started working there in September 2010 but one thing that hasn't changed is how much I enjoy doing shows there! Can't wait to keep going back there on select weekends during this school year.

8/27 - 9:30pm - Update on Isaac's Expected Gulf Coast Landfall

Tropical Storm Isaac is teetering on the edge of becoming a hurricane this evening with winds of 70 mph as of this writing. The threshold for a Category 1 hurricane is 74 mph. The storm motion has slowed down over the past few hours, now moving northwest at only 10 mph. Issac continues to run into issues that prevent it from rapid intensification, which is certainly good news. The latest issue is a batch of dry air that is currently being pulled into the center of the storm. Without an uninhibited source of moist air the storm cannot form a defined eye or intensify very well. The dry air is why Isaac is lopsided right now with most of the intense winds on the south side.

How long will it be until this dry air is finished working through the storm? Probably a few more hours, possibly lasting into the early morning hours tomorrow if current model forecasts are correct. Speaking of models, the current track from the National Hurricane Center takes Isaac right into the Eastern Louisiana/Mississippi Coast areas late tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning as a weak Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. With the lack of organization we're seeing right now it may only be a Category 1 at landfall. The latest computer model tracks, the spaghetti plots as you've probably heard about and seen over the past few days, have tightened up on a landfall location somewhere around New Orleans. It's worth noting that some of these models are now trending eastward after a massive amount of successive westward jogs in recent days. It doesn't appear that this landfall will take place further east than Biloxi, Mississippi given the current motion of the storm and model data, but the exact landfall location won't be the big story with this storm.

Storm surge exceedance probabilities

The big story here is how big and how slow this storm is. Sure, there will be some wind damage along the coast as the storm makes landfall, but the large area that Isaac covers means that quite an expansive area along the Gulf Coast will experience other effects from it. Storm surge at or above ten feet is possible in locations from New Orleans to Pascagoula, MS and rainfall amounts over a foot are forecast over much of Central and Southern Mississippi and Eastern Louisiana. Isaac will slow down even more than its current speed once it gets over land so heavy rain will be a good bet across much of the Gulf Coast states until we get into the weekend. Inland flooding will be a problem with the deluge that Isaac with unleash on the region as it crawls northward.

Rainfall through 7pm CDT Saturday

As far as local effects in North Mississippi and West Tennessee, Isaac will bring very heavy rain and winds with gusts in some cases near 40 mph. Starkville, MS may be looking at a six or more inch rainfall scenario through Saturday evening and areas in West Tennessee like Jackson will likely see more than three inches of rain. This highly depends on Isaac's exact track so some areas will see much more rain than others.

With just about any landfalling hurricane you can expect the threat of isolated tornadoes, and Isaac will be no different. The turning of winds with height in a hurricane or tropical storm create favorable wind shear for tornadoes to form in stronger parts of it. Due to this potential threat, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for most of Mississippi and parts of Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida.


So overall we're not looking at Isaac to be a major hurricane at landfall, but the effects from it will be widespread due to it's large size. It's a good thing that folks in a wide area are preparing for this storm since it could be a long haul given the slow motion that's expected from it.

8/23 - 5pm - Tropics, Drought, Storms... Anything Else?

Computer model forecast tracks for Isaac

The big shakeup in the world of weather right now is the presence of Tropical Storm Isaac south of Puerto Rico. Much uncertainty still exists with where the storm will go but certainty of it making some sort of US landfall is growing. Current forecast data from multiple computer models has this storm going anywhere from the eastern Florida Peninsula to the Central Gulf over the coming days. The trend has been for these forecast tracks to shift westward over the past couple days and that means that those with interests along the Gulf Coast need to watch this storm extremely carefully. The fact that this storm may miss most of Hispanola and it's rough terrain means that we could have a stronger storm than previously expected by the time it reaches the Gulf. Once we get some better data tonight from a NOAA Gulfstream IV aircraft that is being dispatched to take measurements of the storm the model data and forecasts should improve a bit.

The 5pm EDT National Hurricane Center update on Isaac has again taken a more westerly track than before thanks to the latest model data. Their forecast has Isaac remaining a tropical storm until it clears the north side of Cuba on Monday and becomes a hurricane. This all depends on where the storm tracks because the less of Cuba and Hispanola it goes over, the more time over warm water it will have. Should the storm remain weak like it is now for a longer period, a more westerly track can be expected.

How 'bout the drought? Not much has changed from last week's drought monitor product for West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Much of West Tennessee is still suffering from a severe to exceptional drought, especially in areas near the Mississippi River and Kentucky border. The area of exceptional drought, the highest level possible, has contracted a bit since last week. Areas south of Benton County and east of Bolivar aren't faring as badly as the rest of West Tennessee, but it's worth noting that rain may be hard to come by over the next week. The worst of North Mississippi's drought is still confined to areas near Tunica and areas south of West Point don't have drought conditions at this time.

Speaking of rain, we're looking at just a small chance for some isolated showers and storms on Saturday afternoon in North Mississippi as an upper-level system moves toward us from the west. This will increase our moisture and instability a touch since winds will be turning more southerly at the surface. West Tennessee will be too far north for this storm chance unfortunately. Small storm chances will be in the forecast again as we head into the early part of the workweek, but uncertainly skyrockets after that because our weather will depend on where Isaac, by then likely a hurricane, will go. A more westerly landfall along the Gulf Coast would mean quite a bit of rain for the region while a more easterly landfall in Florida wouldn't affect us too much. This again is something we'll need to watch.

8/19 - 6pm - Tranquil Weather for the Workweek

Mississippi State University

It's that time of year again when I switch over blog post content to cover Mississippi and West Tennessee in place of the Louisville area. I do this for two reasons: 1) It's difficult to write about the day-to-day goings on of weather back home in Louisville when I'm taking a full college course load at Mississippi State that requires me to keep up with and forecast weather for the Golden Triangle area here in Mississippi and 2) I'm convinced that it is better to forecast for the area which you are currently living in because you're always aware (sometimes painfully) of how accurate your forecast is. If anything significant happens back home in Louisville I'll be sure to include it in my posts here over the next few months, but for now I'll be covering weather down here.

While it was supposed to be a rainy day across the Golden Triangle today we actually saw quite a bit of sunshine and nice weather. A front that has become stationary over Central Mississippi put us in a much drier environment and this has cut off most of the needed moisture for showers and storms to fire up. There's still a chance that a few isolated showers and storms will get going around the region but that's a potential that will be highest during the early morning hours according to the latest short-range guidance.

The trough that's brought us the front and the cooler temperatures this weekend will continue to do so for most of the workweek as it slides slowly eastward. A lack of surface moisture and building surface high pressure will stave off rain chances and even clouds for the most part until we get close to the weekend. Temperatures this week will be gradually rising through the mid 80's for highs until we get to Thursday. By then stronger southerly flow will be bringing in warmer, moister air from the Gulf and get us back to around 90 for highs as we go through the late week and the weekend. Shower and storm chances will be returning by the weekend.

Click image to see a larger view

The tropics have been fairly quiet as of late near the US coastline but there's potential for that to change next week. A disturbed area of weather in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is on a course that may take it toward the East Coast if the latest computer models are to be believed. It's way too early in the ballgame to discern whether or not this will be a threat to the US since it could curve back out to sea before hitting land or not strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane. This will be something to keep a close eye on since it could become Tropical Storm Isaac.

7/22 - 10:30pm CDT - Heat Cranks Up in West Tennessee

A few showers at 3:25pm today

Some showers and downpours did make it a little further north than expected today across West Tennessee. Last night's model guidance and thinking was that any of these scattered "pop-up" showers would stay mostly south of the Mississippi border, but a complex of storms moved a bit further north than expected out of Alabama into Middle Tennessee. This complex of storms brought with it a small boundary in the atmosphere that helped get these widely scattered showers going over portions of West Tennessee this afternoon. These have all since faded away and the region should have a stretch of hot and mostly clear weather through at least the middle of the week. Humidity will be on the increase as temperatures get into the upper 90's, so expect some dangerous heat index values well over 100 degrees. Storm chances look like they will now be increasing toward the end of the week as a front drops from the south but temperatures still appear to be heading toward the triple digits since this front likely won't make it far enough south to pass through.

My weathercast from last night's 10pm news on WBBJ in Jackson is available to watch below.

7/15 - 7pm CDT - The Heat Returns!

A few showers are ongoing across West Tennnessee right now, but this is quite a bit less than what was expected today. Dry air rotating around a area of high pressure has moved into the region because this high has nudged a bit further westward than originally forecast. This means that a majority of the shower activity has stayed west of the Mississippi River, but a couple thundershowers could still pop up before sunset. These should mostly dissipate before the overnight hours.

Heat and humidity are on their way back as a large ridge of high pressure moves eastward over the next few days. This should surpress storm chances a little bit, but not entirely because temperatures aloft will still be a little cool. This heat at the surface and the slightly cool air aloft should create the typical "summertime pop-up storm" environment that we're used to seeing in the afternoons this time of year. Temperatures underneath this ridge of high pressure should be in the lower to middle 90's in West Tenneessee and middle 90's until Wednesday in Kentuckiana. A front dropping south on Thursday will trigger higher rain chances in both Kentuckiana and West Tenneessee and there could be some slightly cooler temperatures behind the front for Kentuckiana. Things look to remain hot all week long in West Tennessee!

I'm in Jackson, TN right now getting ready for the 10 O'Clock news on WBBJ this evening before going back to Louisville tomorrow. Check out my Hokey Weather Fact from last night's show on the left and be sure to tune in to WBBJ tonight at 10 for a new one!

 

7/10 - 11:55pm - A Tale of Two TV Stations

Let's start with weather first, shall we? Today was hot in Louisville, much hotter than anticipated because dry air that made its way into the area allowed temperatures to rise quite a bit. We're talking about a high temperature that was 95 degrees today, which even though is very warm, it was still cooler than what we experienced during last week's massive heat wave. Tomorrow should be a little cooler as moister air moves in again from the south.

Daily rain chances will be ramping up Thursday in Louisville as a trough develops to the west of the Mississippi River. It's already been raining in West Tennessee a bit this week, but more is on the way through the weekend as this trough gets its act together and a warm front moves northward. The rain is still needed in West Tennessee as drought conditions persist throughout the region. This rain will keep temperatures down in both regions, which is good news after all the heat! Between this past morning and Sunday morning there could be over 6 inches of rainfall  in West Tennessee and North Mississippi according to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). Flash flooding issues may crop up in some of the heavier thunderstorms.

Now, to the two TV stations. The first TV station in question here is WBBJ-TV in Jackson, TN where I'll be at on Saturday and Sunday night doing weather. It's been nearly three months since I've been on air in West Tennessee so I'm happy to be coming back this weekend and next weekend too for the Saturday night shows! The second TV station in question is WAVE-TV in Louisville. Today I went in to meet with Kevin Harned and the gang at the station and came out a WAVE 3 Weather intern. This has been "in the works" for awhile but today it was made official and I'm extremely excited to be sharing this news! I'll be at WAVE a couple days a week until mid-August. My duties will be mostly web-based with social media, blogs, etc, but I'll also assist with any needed TV-related tasks. I'm so thankful to be able to intern at the station I grew up with and to work with such a great team of meteorologists!

4/18 - 9pm - Rainy End to the Week?

Low off the Gulf Coast on Saturday

After seeing well over three inches of rain yesterday in Starkville we're enjoying much more pleasant weather that's going to continue over the next few days. Southerly winds will be bringing moisture and temperatures near 80 for both Thursday and Friday, but the weekend is a question mark at the moment. Our next system tracking to our south will be sending up rain our way for a good portion of the day on Saturday, but the most recent computer forecast model runs suggest this may be less of an issue than previously thought. Should that system stay well enough south and not send as much moisture our way, Saturday may be showery but not a washout. Sunday should be much cooler regardless but at least the sunshine will return! Your full forecast is available in the video below:

3/24 - 3:30pm - Another Very Warm Week Ahead

A few showers have moved through West Tennessee this morning and we're still holding on to a chance for a few more mixed with some thunderstorms developing this afternoon. There could be a strong storm or two, but it shouldn't be a big deal. Once the big upper-level low generating the showers and this afternoon's storm chance moves on through we'll be seeing clearing skies and temperatures in the mid 70's by tomorrow. The early part of your workweek looks sunny as high pressure builds in once again and we should see highs go 80+ once again by Tuesday. The middle and end of the week are somewhat in question right now, but it seems as though another slow-moving system may generate at least a few showers and storms during that time frame. Check out one of my weathercasts from this morning's Good Morning West Tennessee broadcast on WBBJ for more details: