1/15 - 8pm - Just Plain Rain for Starkville, but Snow Later?

While the Delta region has been plagued by an ice storm yesterday and today we've been lucky enough here in Starkville to just be experiencing plain rain and temperatures above freezing. It's 35 degrees in Starkville right now and it still looks like we'll keep above freezing for the remainder of the overnight hours. A Flash Flood Watch is still in effect through late tonight for the area due to all the heavy rain we've had. As this rain begins to move out tomorrow evening there's a chance that some of this could as snow. It's not real clear who will get the most snow and how much, but there's at least some potential for light snow as we go through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. That forecast will continue to be fine-tuned throughout the day tomorrow. Check out my video below for all you need to plan your week!

1/10 - 5pm - Winter Storm Wrap-Up

After a few hours of sleet and snow, Starkville, MS finally switched over to all snow just after 8pm last night and around three inches of accumulation occurred. It was less than many expected because of the slow switch-over from sleet/freezing rain to snow, but nevertheless it was a significant storm. Areas near Corinth and Tupelo, MS received the most snow of anyone in the state, with ten inches in some places. Back in Starkville, temperatures have now warmed up to 34 in town, so the roads and sidewalks have melted. With the roads still wet and temperatures going below freezing tonight, there's a pretty good chance that ice could develop out there. Regardless of where you are across North Mississippi, West Tennessee, and Alabama, be very careful when traveling overnight and tomorrow morning.

Check out this video I put together that chronicles the storm at Mississippi State University from beginning to end:

1/7 - 8:15pm - Big Changes to Southern Winter Storm!

A day makes quite a difference when it comes to winter storm forecasting, and boy do we have some changes in the forecast to talk about. The major US-based computer models, the GFS and NAM, have both trended colder and wetter in today's runs compared to yesterday. Instead of talking about ice problems in Starkville and the Golden Triangle, we're now talking heavy snow. Jackson, TN has also seen a bump in snow totals on the models, with 2-4" now possible in the Hub City.

Jackson, TN
While no Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the Jackson area, snow totals could reach 2-4" by Monday midday. While this won't be a very heavy snowfall, it'll certainly cause travel problems across West Tennessee. The snow totals will increase as you head toward the Mississippi border, where up to 5 inches is possible. As you'll see in the graphic to the right, Winter Storm Watches begin with the Tennessee counties bordering Mississippi and go all the way south to just north of the Gulf Coast. I saw earlier this evening that brine has been applied to many roads across West Tennessee and that's certainly good news for travelers in the region on Sunday into Monday. I'll have the latest forecast for Jackson and West Tennessee tomorrow morning at 6am on WBBJ ABC 7's Good Morning West Tennessee!

Here's what the National Weather Service in Memphis has to say about this system:

GIVEN ALL OF THIS...IT SEEMS BEST TO CONTINUE WITH AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF JONESBORO TO PARIS...3 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...AND 5 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DESPITE SOME HIGHER QPF SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO...WILL NOT PUSH TOTALS ABOVE 8 INCHES FOR NOW. LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THESE TOTALS AS HOPEFULLY BETTER MODEL OUTPUT BECOMES AVAILABLE.

Starkville, MS
The shift from a couple inches of snow with ice accumulations to heavy snow accumulations of 4-8" in Starkville by Monday morning on the computer models has been remarkable today. Colder temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere and increased precipitation totals have really bumped up the snow totals across the Golden Triangle and I think this is a much better solution than an ice storm in the area. Unfortunately, that risk has shifted to Central Mississippi just south of Macon, MS and power outages and tree damage could be an issue down there. The most ambitious computer model today has been the 18z NAM run (on left), which gave Starkville over 9 inches of snow. I don't think we'll get quite that much snow, but the National Weather Service's 4-8" forecast looks on-par with what I'm thinking at this point. This will be the largest snow storm in quite a few years should this pan out, so get ready for some significant travel issues in North and Central Mississippi on Sunday night and Monday. I'll keep watch on the latest model runs and post tomorrow with the latest updates!

Here's what the National Weather Service in Jackson, MS says about Mississippi's winter weather chances:

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF OUTPUT GENERALLY SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET AND A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...ALONG AND N OF A BASTROP LA TO MACON LINE. GIVEN THE FORECAST QPF...THIS WOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA. ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR...A FULL WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. DEPENDING ON WHAT THE DOMINANT PCPN TYPE ENDS UP BEING...THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SLEET...OR A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF GLAZE. ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...PRECIP LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW/SLEET THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN WITH SOME WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL BE UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM SUN TO 6 AM MON PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

Don't forget that you can follow my up-to-the minute weather updates on my Facebook and Twitter accounts.

1/6 - 11pm - Winter Storm in the South This Weekend?

You've probably heard it by now, but it bears stating again: A winter storm is going to impact the South this weekend. Even though we're less than four days away from the event, details are still relatively sketchy because of computer model inconsistencies. In this post I'll focus on Starkville, MS and Jackson, TN, two areas that are less than a couple hundred miles apart but could see wildly different winter weather scenarios.


Jackson, TN
The winter storm this weekend will be an all-snow event for Jackson and all of West Tennessee. The most current runs of the GFS model are indicating around two inches of snow accumulation by Monday afternoon in the region. The NAM model only goes out to 84 hours, so only accumulations through Monday morning were output on the 0z run, which stands now at around two inches as well. Since precipitation amounts will increase as you go southward and the exact track of this storm hasn't been determined, there's definitely room for more snow accumulation than what is on the current batch of computer models.


Starkville, MS/Mississippi State University

The forecast for Starkville is exponentially more difficult than areas to our north because the Golden Triangle could very well be the battleground between snow, freezing rain, and rain. The 18z GFS model puts a couple inches of snow on the ground here, but the bigger story is the amount of freezing rain that could accumulate. The graphic to the right is the accumulated freezing rain output from the GFS, which shows nearly a half inch of ice accumulation in Starkville by Monday morning. Just a couple counties to our north, snow accumulations could top four inches and ice may not be as much of an issue. Earlier runs of the GFS showed more snow for Starkville with ice becoming more of a problem just to our south. That's just one model though. The NAM, which as I said before does not cover the whole event period yet, seemed to go toward a warmer solution on the 0z run with a bit of snow late Sunday night and plain rain in town on Monday morning (left image). I'd give the NAM a few runs to get things sorted out because lately it seems to have had problems with storms that occur near the very end of it's forecast period. Areas near Tupelo could be the bulls-eye for heavy snow, so I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports of amounts over five inches up there early on Monday.

Bottom line: Significant amounts of snow/sleet and freezing rain are possible in Starkville by Monday morning and we'll need to fine-tune the forecast to figure out which mode of precipitation will be more dominant. Any slight track changes or differences in the strength of the low that will pass to our south will determine what kind of frozen precipitation falls where. The good news is that I think temperatures during the day on Monday will get above freezing, so the mess on the roads during the morning should get better throughout the afternoon.

If you're near Jackson, TN this weekend, be sure to tune in to ABC 7 on Saturday morning at 6am for my latest snow forecast. Should be an interesting few days ahead!

1/2 - 12:45am - Happy New Year!

Hope that everyone had an exceptional New Year's Day and that it was a nice kickoff to a great year ahead! I've been away from the blog for awhile to enjoy the holidays and take a vacation to the Caribbean, but it's just about time for things to get back to normal. I'll be heading back to Starkville, MS on Monday to start the spring semester at Mississippi State and I'll be back at work next Saturday morning at WBBJ in Jackson. From the excitement of the multiple early Ohio Valley winter storms to getting my wisdom teeth taken out (well, maybe not that), it's been a great winter break in Louisville.

Many of you I'm sure have been hearing about the aftermath from the worst severe weather outbreak on New Year's Day and Eve in recorded history. Seven fatalities have occurred due to tornadoes and strong winds that scraped across the Midwest and South, affecting states like Arkansas, Illinois, Missouri, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The state of Mississippi was especially hard hit as a few significant tornadoes touched down in Jackson and portions of Central Mississippi. Three tornadoes have been confirmed in Mississippi so far, including one that crossed onto the property of Jackson International Airport. The National Weather Service is still conducting damage surveys, so this list of confirmed tornadoes will likely grow. Check out the details from the surveys of the three confirmed Mississippi tornadoes on the NWS Jackson website. (Picture on right is a strong velocity couplet indicating intense rotation on radar near Jackson, MS on Friday)

The weather looks pretty calm for the next few days as high pressure regains control of things in the Southeast. There could be some precipitation in the region on Wednesday and Thursday, but chances aren't looking good at this point. If two areas of low pressure phase with one another as they pass over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, expect light snow in Indiana and rain all the way from the Ohio River to the Mississippi Gulf Coast. If they remain separate systems, any precipitation would likely stay suppressed in South Mississippi. Right now I think they will remain separate systems, meaning Kentucky and Tennessee will remain dry as we head through the middle part of the week. Regardless of whether these lows phase or not, light snow will be possible in Indiana and Kentucky next weekend as the low in the Great Lakes moves east and spreads down areas of light snowfall from the north.

Temperatures will be on their way back below normal after next weekend across much of the country and we'll have to watch for snow chances in Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe even Mississippi/Alabama. We'll certainly have the cold air in place, but will the storms cooperate? That's the fun of meteorology!

12/16 - 2:30pm - Ice Photos

It seems we received some of the worst ice accumulations in Kentuckiana here at my house in Southeast Louisville. Check out this slideshow for some pictures of the impressive ice accumulations that I took earlier this afternoon:



It took 30 minutes to get a minivan out of our driveway using sand. Trying to walk on any of this ice isn't a good idea. Glad that I only fell once! It should be noted that all the major roads in Louisville are pretty good right now, but those streets that have not been treated are extremely dangerous. Use caution if you have to be out today.

I'll be heading out to on vacation to Florida tomorrow so there won't be any blog posts for about a week. I should be back just before Christmas, so I'll be sure to post if any wintry weather heads toward Louisville after that point. It appears that things will quiet down for a short while, so it's certainly a good time to take a break!

12/16 - 11:30am - Ice Accumulation Numbers

The temperature in Louisville got up to 32 at around 8am this morning, but we're now back down to 29 degrees. That's not good news at all because the accumulated ice simply won't melt with temperatures below freezing and cloud cover. Overall, Louisville did get around 0.5" of ice in places as expected, but the expected 1-2" of snow simply did not happen due to warm air advection aloft that traveled north quicker than expected. Here are some of the ice accumulation totals from the NWS in Louisville:

...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 9 AM EST...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED BY AMOUNT AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY
THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

*************************ICE ACCUMULATIONS**********************

ACCUM  LOCATION             ST   COUNTY               TIME
-----  --------             --   ------               ----

0.5"   VALLEY STATION       KY  JEFFERSON           500 AM EST
0.5"   ENGLISH              IN  CRAWFORD            900 AM EST
0.3"   BROWNSVILLE          KY  EDMONSON            200 AM EST
0.3"   CASEY                KY  BUTLER              200 AM EST
0.3"   TELL CITY            IN  PERRY               900 AM EST
0.3"   ANCHORAGE            KY  JEFFERSON           900 AM EST
0.3"   DOE VALLEY           KY  MEADE               900 AM EST
0.25"  HOLLAND              IN  DUBOIS              600 AM EST
0.25"  FRANKFORT            KY  FRANKLIN            645 AM EST
0.25"  GEORGETOWN           KY  SCOTT               730 AM EST
0.25"  ELIZABETHTOWN        KY  HARDIN              745 AM EST
0.25"  CORYDON              IN  HARRISON            705 AM EST
0.25"  SALEM                IN  WASHINGTON          600 AM EST
0.2"   NWS LOUISVILLE       KY  JEFFERSON           900 AM EST
0.2"   FERDINAND            IN  DUBOIS              530 AM EST
0.2"   PORTERSVILLE         IN  DUBOIS              530 AM EST
0.1    LEITCHFIELD          KY  GRAYSON             715 AM EST
0.1"   BOWLING GREEN        KY  WARREN                MIDNIGHT

I'll post some more photos of the ice later on today. Some of those icicles out there are pretty big! I think Louisville will stay dry for the rest of the day but areas near Lexington will receive just a little more freezing rain.

12/15 - 11:40pm - More Ice in Louisville?

Jefferson County Public Schools are closed today (Thursday) due to the ice accumulations overnight. Great decision given the dangerously slick roads and driveways in Louisville. I know I have a few readers who go to my Alma mater duPont Manual High School, so you guys have the day off. Enjoy and be safe!

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***2:30am UPDATE***

The temperature is now up to 28 °F in Louisville as warmer air drives northward. Still think we'll be below freezing for the next few hours. I just snapped a picture of some icicles forming on our deck railing at my house... check it out. Took another walk around my driveway as well and found that ice skates were preferable to tennis shoes. Don't go out if you don't absolutely have to for the next few hours.

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***1:45am UPDATE***

My driveway (and most sidewalks/untreated streets in Louisville) is a sheet of ice and we're still awaiting another big batch of freezing rain in Louisville. That precipitation should be here within minutes and we'll continue to see freezing rain fall until around 7am or just before. Temperature at my house is 26.7 °F and the airport is still holding at 27 °F. You have to go down to Bowling Green, KY to find temperatures just above freezing, so I don't think any relief in the form of warmer air will make it here in time to spare the morning commute in Louisville. Still some snow falling to our north and east, but it's transitioning to sleet/freezing rain as warmer temperatures aloft work their way northward. I still think we're on track to get somewhere near 0.5" of accumulated ice here in the Metro, especially since radar returns are filling in to our west.

---

We started out with some snow in the Louisville area around 10pm this evening, but most of Jefferson County has now switched over to freezing rain and sleet. With what I'm seeing on radar and surface observations, the heavy snow will still fall in areas just northeast of Louisville as you go toward Cincinnati. The heavy ice accumulations are going to happen right here in Louisville I think, up to a half inch or more in places. Areas near Springhurst and Prospect in Northeast Jefferson County may pick up some of that heavier snow, but most of Louisville will stick with freezing rain and sleet overnight unless temperatures above the surface cool a bit. I'll continue to monitor the trends, but as of right now I think Louisville and points south aren't going to see any more snow tonight except for a few snowflakes.

No word on school cancellations in Louisville yet (JCPS says they'll make a decision at 4am), but I'm already seeing reports of slick roads in the suburbs. It's 25 degrees here at my house and 27 at the airport, so the liquid rain that's falling from the sky is freezing on the surface. Needless to say, things are going to be very slick on those untreated roads in the Metro tomorrow if temperatures continue to stay below 32 at the surface with freezing rain tonight.

12/15 - 1am - Late Night Winter Storm Update

The 0z suite of computer models (GFS/NAM) is in and the verdict is not good for our winter storm here in Louisville and surrounding areas. Both computer models have increased the amount of precipitation that will fall tomorrow night through Thursday, but it still appears the time line I laid out in the blog post below is valid. The GFS model is now putting out 0.35" of liquid equivalent precipitation and the NAM just output 0.75". This is up considerably on both models compared to this afternoon's runs. Check out the 18z NAM model's accumulated freezing rain estimate for this storm on the left... it's showing the potential for a half inch or more of accumulated ice around the region.

I still think Southern Indiana north of Scottsburg will see mostly snow, which could add up to four or five inches especially as you head eastward. Here in Louisville we're on track to see a brief burst of moderate snow on Wednesday night before we go to sleet and then to freezing rain by Thursday morning. Like I said earlier today, Louisville's morning commute on Thursday is going to be treacherous if all the data we're seeing right now comes to fruition. Surface temperatures should be below freezing in Louisville throughout Wednesday night and Thursday (Downtown Louisville could get just above freezing on Thursday afternoon), so ice will have no problem accumulating on cars, roadways, overpasses, and everything in between. The computer models aren't accounting for the snow we have on the ground already, which will cool our surface temperatures, so it's difficult to gauge just where exactly it will get above freezing just south of town. The good part in all of this is that we will be fairly close to the freezing mark, which will make the salt on the roads much more effective. If surface temperatures were to be in the teens or 20's during this event, we'd have much worse road conditions. The HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) has points just south of Louisville in a slight risk for 0.25" of freezing rain or more (see right image), but we'll see how that plays out. I think we have the potential for 0.25" or higher of ice accumulation here in Louisville on Thursday, but those numbers will be fine-tuned as we get closer to time.

I'll post tomorrow with the latest data. Again, this storm won't break any records, but it will have a significant impact on much of Kentuckiana. Remember that I-64 and south will be under a Winter Storm Warning from tomorrow afternoon through Thursday afternoon and points north of I-64 will be under a Winter Weather Advisory for the same time period. The difference between these two is the potential ice accumulations, which warrant a Winter Storm Warning in place of an advisory.

12/14 - 1pm - Winter Storm WATCH for Louisville

A Winter Storm WATCH has been issued by the National Weather Service for Louisville and surrounding areas until Thursday afternoon. An area of low pressure passing to our south will give us a quick-hitting winter storm, meaning we'll only see its effects in Kentuckiana from late Wednesday into midday Thursday. There's talk at the NWS of issuing an Ice Storm Warning for portions of Central and North Central Kentucky if the freezing rain accumulations appear that they'll get near a quarter of an inch.

Storm Timing

Wednesday morning/midday: All Clear

Wednesday afternoon/evening: Light snow/sleet begins in the west and spreads toward Louisville as snow. Under an inch of accumulation expected.

Early Thursday morning: Snow switches over to sleet and freezing rain, becoming mostly freezing rain as the morning wears on. The morning commute will be a royal mess in Louisville. Based on the forecast models and guidance I'm seeing right now, most schools should be closed or delayed on Thursday due to the treacherous driving conditions on Thursday morning. Areas north of Scottsburg, IN should have snow throughout the entire event and I would not rule out a couple inches of accumulation up that way.

Thursday afternoon: Near and south of the Ohio River should see freezing rain end from west to east in the early afternoon hours. There could be a few snowflakes as temperatures aloft cool down on the west side of the low. Again, Southern Indiana from Scottsburg northward should stay with snow and possibly a little sleet as this system pulls out of the area.

---

The devil is in the details with this storm. How much freezing rain will accumulate in North Central Kentucky? Right now I'm thinking Louisville will see just under a quarter inch of ice accumulation whereas areas near Elizabethtown, Fort Knox, and Bardstown could pick up about a quarter of an inch. The GFS model is being conservative with precipitation amounts (0.27" liquid) whereas the NAM is pumping more into the area (0.56" liquid). I'm willing to bet we'll see something in between those numbers here in Louisville, some of that liquid falling as snow/sleet while the rest falls as freezing rain. Check out the annotated BUFKIT sounding from the NAM model at 4am on Thursday above (click to make it larger). You'll notice that temperatures between 4000 and 8000ft will be above freezing, meaning the snow will melt to rain while it's falling through that layer of air. The lower 4000ft or so of the atmosphere will be below freezing and that already thawed liquid rain will likely freeze when it hits the surface. There will likely be a period of sleet in Louisville as we transition from snow to freezing rain on Thursday morning. Like I said yesterday, only a few miles will make a big difference. We still have a decent snow pack in Louisville, so I do expect temperatures to stay below freezing here at the surface throughout Thursday except for some areas downtown where they may reach 33 degrees. Even though we're only about 36 hours away from this event, there's still wiggle room for all of this. If temperatures aloft aren't as warm as forecast, we'll see mostly snow in Louisville and the freezing rain risk would shift southward. On the flip side, temperatures at the surface could also nudge a couple degrees higher than expected (unlikely due to snow cover in my opinion) and decrease the ice problems on Thursday morning.

We'll see how this one plays out. The NWS in Louisville will upgrade the Winter Storm WATCH to either a warning or Ice Storm Warning at some point later today and I'll post the details of that on Twitter and Facebook immediately. Should any significant changes occur in the forecast, I'll post those on the blog.

12/14 - 12am - Cold is Here and Another Louisville Storm Looms

My apologies for posting so late today. I didn't expect the recovery time from my wisdom teeth removal procedure this morning to last so long, but I think I'm about 95% back to normal now. Cold temperatures are the big story tonight as clouds continue to clear out of the area and cooler air filters in from the northwest. Low temperatures will hover around 8 degrees early tomorrow morning and we're already well into the teens at the eleven o'clock hour here in Louisville. Check out some of the surface observations on the image to the right. Indianapolis and Evansville, IN are coming in at 9 degrees at the moment with temperatures getting even closer to 0 as you make your way toward Peoria, IL. Wind chill values will get a few degrees below zero tonight, especially in the suburbs of Jefferson and surrounding counties.

Our attention turns to yet another storm that should affect the Louisville area as soon as Wednesday evening. If you thought this past storm was a bear to forecast, try figuring this one out! Since temperatures will be hovering near freezing at the surface across the area with upper-air temperatures varying, this is going to be a real mess. The 0z NAM model run keeps Louisville and points northward mostly in the snow, but the 18z GFS had quite a mixed bag of precipitation for us, including freezing rain, sleet, snow, and plain rain. The 0z GFS is just now coming in and it appears that there will be a longer period of snow here in Louisville according to that run, but freezing rain or sleet could take hold on Thursday as warmer temperatures make their way in aloft (still need time for the BUFKIT output to be generated to find out exact precipitation type). If I had to guess right now, I'd say that Louisville and Southern Indiana will start out as snow on Wednesday night before switching over to either sleet or freezing rain sometime early Thursday before gradually changing back to snow as the storm ends. Should temperatures at the surface get just above freezing on Thursday, that period of freezing rain could turn to plain rain at times.

It's a real sticky situation as you can gather from my comments above. Since just a few miles will make a difference during this Wednesday/Thursday event, snow, sleet, and freezing rain amounts will vary wildly across Kentuckiana. I'll have an update tomorrow with more specifics and hopefully the computer models will have a better handle on this storm by then.

Check out some video that I shot of today's snow accumulations in Louisville below:


Be sure to select either 720p or 1080p and play at fullscreen for a high-definition experience.

2/14 - 2:30pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast... More Snow?

Happy Valentine's Day! It looks like we have another shot at some snow overnight tonight and into the early morning hours of tomorrow. All of North Mississippi is under a Winter Weather Advisory tonight and tomorrow as 1 to 2 inches of snow falls across the region after transitioning from a bit of rain. Another hazard with this system is the possibility for ice on the roads tomorrow morning as the wet roads flash freeze in temperatures around the mid 20's. Keep this in mind tomorrow as you're making your morning commute. The rest of the week should be fairly dry with warmer weather by Thursday. Rain is in the forecast for next weekend.


A lengthy winter storm is getting ready to affect Northern Kentucky and Southern Indiana this evening, including the Louisville area. From tonight through Wednesday, the folks back home could pick up over a half a foot of snow. Louisville has already broken their seasonal average snow total, so this storm will only add to an above-average season. Some areas up there could pick up a foot of snow!

1/28 - 9:30pm - Big Ohio/Tennessee Valley Snowstorm

If you live anywhere in between Louisville, KY and Chattanooga, TN, you're in for some snow tomorrow! A very potent storm is on the way and will assuredly cause headaches throughout the region this weekend. Winter Storm Warnings (pink counties on image), Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories (blue counties) have been issued for much of the area already ahead of this storm. Here are some sample forecast snow totals for select cities:

Louisville, KY - 4-6"
Bowling Green, KY - 6-8"
Lexington, KY - 5-7"

Nashville, TN - 4-8" with ice
Memphis, TN - 1-3" with ice
Knoxville, TN - 3-6"

Louisville is on the very north end of this system, meaning that a storm track change of only 20 miles could throw off totals quite a bit. In the same fashion, Memphis, Nashville, and Knoxville are on the southern edge of this system and the same rule applies. Anywhere in between these cities is in pretty good shape for seeing snow regardless of micro track changes.

1/6 - 6:30pm - Video Update on Mississippi Winter Storm

This video has the latest on our winter storm:


(Click the HD button to view this video in high-definition)

As of now, it looks like one to two inches of snow could fall in Starkville. Some freezing rain and sleet could mix in early in the morning, but we should switch to all snow by mid morning. Driving could be hazardous, so be careful out there tomorrow!

12/23 - 3pm - Plains Blizzard, Snow in Louisville?

The big storm getting ready to spread rain around Louisville on Christmas Eve will slam into the Plains as a major snowstorm with blizzard conditions possible. Ice will be a big issue out there as well, especially in places nearer to the area of low pressure like Omaha and Lincoln, Nebraska. Some places could end up with more than 20" of snow, especially in areas north of Nebraska. Winter Storm warnings and watches have been issued as the storm cranks up today.

Rain should begin in Louisville early tomorrow and taper off as we go through Christmas Day. I know it's a bummer to have rain around Christmas like this, but at least we won't have any travel problems around the region.

The next chance of snow could come just before the new year. A system on the long-range GFS computer model is still showing some potential for us, even though we are not forecast to get any snow as of now. The storm track at the moment is very far south of us, but the GFS model has been notorious for shifting suppressed storms northward a few days before the actual event. This happened with the current storm. As you may remember, the current Plains storm was supposed to track south of us and give us snow, but the northward trend took over and sent the storm west of the Mississippi River. My only concern with the potential New Year's storm is that we may have a surge of warm air from the south, which could limit our snow chances. It's really far out to be making any sort of detailed prediction at this point, but I think this storm will make a snowy impact on parts of the region.

12/21 - 12:45pm - Christmas Rain, New Year's Snow?

Unless there are any major changes in the computer models in the next 24 hours, I think we're in for some potentially heavy rain on Christmas Eve in Louisville. The rain should taper off on Christmas Day, ending as a few snow showers or flurries if we get lucky. There could even be some thunder on Christmas Eve if convection gets going around here. This same storm will give places like Omaha and Lincoln, Nebraska a nasty winter storm with dangerous amounts of ice and snow. I know everyone in Louisville wanted a white Christmas, but quite honestly it's better to have the rain then have another ice storm on our hands during the holidays.

The reason we're missing the snow is because of a lack of high pressure support in Canada. Earlier computer models were forecasting a strong high pressure "block" that would drive this storm southward, but later models have since weakened the effect of this.

On to the next storm... The long range GFS has been consistently displaying some sort of potential New Year's snowstorm for the region. There may even be two storms around this period to watch based on the current runs, so we'll have to watch what happens. It's extremely early to be calling for snow or rain for this time period, but I do believe that the pattern will be better suited for snow here next week. So we have the storms, but now we just need some high pressure in Canada/North US to keep them south of us. Today is only the first day of winter, so don't give up on snow yet!

1/28 - 7:30pm - A Cold Night for Many

As night descends on a city where many are without power, a low near 10 degrees does not sound good at all. This will be a rough week and weekend because temperatures will not even break the freezing mark until Sunday (when we get into the 40s). A little light snow on Friday will freshen up the snow on the ground across the area, but nothing more than a dusting will come of this. I'm more worried about the winds that could come with this system, topping 20mph in some cases. This could cause more ice-covered limbs to fall, meaning more power outages. I can already tell that "snow" has become a four-letter word around the area, with the word "ice" rising to a whole new level of vulgarity.

Whether you like snow or not, there is a possibility for a snowstorm on Monday. The GFS and DGEX are showing a storm in here during the day on Monday and lasting into Tuesday morning:


18z GFS


18z DGEX

I've been watching this develop on the models for a couple of days now and it's been fairly consistent. A little ray of hope for those who dislike snow is Canadian model, which is taking the brunt of this storm to our east:


12z Canadian

At any rate, I don't think this storm will harbor any ice due to the relatively cool temperatures forecast to be present at 850mb (5000 feet). This is certainly a storm to keep tabs on through the weekend.

1/28 - 1pm - A Wild Storm Comes to an End

The snow and ice are out of here, but the region will be dealing with power outages and tree damage for quite a while. Temperatures are steadily dropping across the area, with 25 degrees at my house right now. The interstates are passable, but side roads and county roads are treacherous if they have not been plowed. Tree limbs on roads are also causing quite a few problems as well.

Here's what it looks like in my neck of the woods:



Since temperatures will not get above freezing until at least the weekend, the trees are going to look sickly for quite some time. My neighborhood roads are terrible, but it's not impossible to drive on them. This is one of those days where an all-wheel-drive or 4-wheel-drive vehicle will come in handy.

UPDATE (1:15pm): LG&E is now reporting 100,000 without power in the Metro, with KU reporting 176,000 outages throughout the state.

1/28 - 10:30am -Tree Branches are Falling!

I was taking video outside when a tree branch fell in the woods. You can't see the actual tree branch fall, but the sound in itself is enough to send shivers up your spine:



Everyone needs to be on alert for falling tree limbs today, especially if you have to drive this afternoon. The weight of the ice on the trees is getting to be too much, along with added weight from the snow.

1/28 - 9:30pm - Power is Back!

Our power was restored early this morning, so I'm back online for the day.

The snow is falling hard out there, with temperatures dropping rapidly. We were at 31 about a half hour ago and now we're at 28. This is around the temperature for a flash freeze, so any standing water left over from last night will freeze. The ice from overnight has the trees looking sickly and many without power. 75,000 LG&E customers are without power right now with 125,000 KU customers without power as well.

I just took a look at the TRIMARC cameras around the area and the interstates look snow and ice covered. They're passable, but not good at this point. I would recommend staying home if at all possible. There have been just under 100 accidents on the roads since midnight.

I think everyone will end up with 2-4" of snow as forecast. The tale-end of this system is approaching the area, but I think we have up to an hour more of heavy snow. After the heavy snow ends, we're done with this storm.