4/2 - 10:45pm - After Some Rain, a Warm Weekend in Mississippi

A stationary boundary stretched across Mississippi is giving folks to the south quite a bit of warm weather this evening but we're cooling down here in Starkville as we remain on the north side of it. An associated area of low pressure currently in Texas will move through the region later this week, triggering showers on Wednesday and Thursday. While temperatures will take a small tumble on those days we'll warm up vigorously into the 70's by the weekend. Check out your CampusConnect Forecast below for all the details!

3/5 - 11:55pm - Warmer Weather Ahead in East Mississippi!

This morning's cold front brought rain and wind to the Golden Triangle but we've now cleared that out of here as the front is well to our east. Temperatures for tomorrow will be cooler than they were today by about ten degrees but a warming trend will take us well into the 70's by the weekend. How about that... we've gone from snow flurries to warm temperatures in the 70's within the space of a week! Check out my latest CampusConnect Forecast video below for all the details.

12/11 - 10:30pm - Be Careful When Wishing for Snow... You Might Get it!

With all the warmth much of the eastern portion of the nation has been experiencing lately some folks are beginning to get antsy over whether we'll be able to fall into a more winter-like pattern in time for the holidays. The cold front that rolled through earlier this week has helped to assuage some of those fears as it brought much cooler temperatures and even some light snow/sleet to parts of Kentucky and Indiana.

So... What's next? First up is a system that will move through the region this weekend as a warm one. A low will travel from the Plains to Lake Michigan and keep the eastern half of the nation warm as it spreads rain from the Great Lakes to the South. This makes sense because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be going neutral during this time, which generally means that cold air won't be able to spill down into the Eastern US from Canada. The Arctic Oscillation will be negative to support cold air coming out of the north, but that doesn't matter too much for us when the NAO isn't negative as well.

The system behind this weekend's is the one that is drawing some concern. A low will be moving across the South during the day on Tuesday and potentially spread some snow to areas that are north of it. At this point anywhere from West Tennessee to the Louisville area is in a potential corridor for snow. This all depends on the exact track of the low and how much cold air it will be able to bring down from the north. This scenario is supported by the NAO and AO both going negative during this time. The GFS model takes the storm along the southern border of Tennessee right to the Carolinas. The ECMWF (European) model starts out with the low a little further south along the Mississippi River but has it exit off the coast in about the same location as the GFS. The low would then become a storm that would ride up to the Northeast just off the coast. With the previous system pulling up toward the Chicago area, this low will likely stay suppressed to the south. So... the broad, general nature of this low's track isn't in too much question. My preliminary (read: subject to change!) thinking is that this will be a rain to light snow situation for portions of Tennessee and Kentucky since cold air would plunge in as the system is exiting to the east. Accumulations would be very light to none.

But here's an issue. The snow cover over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest has expanded tremendously over the past week as a storm pummeled those areas with quite a bit of snow. We're now at 31.4% snow cover over the United States. Air moving from the north over that snow won't warm as quickly as it would over bare land and the computer models generally have a difficult time resolving that. With this snow cover, the air in place over us and the air coming down from the north may be a little cooler than the computer models think it will be at the moment. That could mean more snow from this system. We're still a week away from this event so while details are sketchy, it's now obvious that this is a system to watch. This likely won't be the only storm we'll have to contend with between now and the new year since a pattern is setting up that will allow cold air to sit close by to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while lows track through and just to the south of the region. There's hope for a white Christmas in the region but it will depend on whether we can get enough cold air and a storm to move through just before the 25th. It'll be fun to watch!

11/26 - 2:15pm - Rainy Start to the Week, Severe to the Southwest

Had enough of the rain in Starkville this morning and afternoon? Just wait, there's more! An area of moist air ahead of a cold front that will move through tonight is inspiring the development of numerous showers and those will eventually lead to some thunderstorms late tonight. Some of the storms to our southwest could be severe but it's looking more and more like we won't have quite enough moisture and instability to get that kind of storm activity closer to the Golden Triangle. A Slight Risk of severe weather has been issued for areas west of I-55 due to the possibility for severe storms toward Jackson and Vicksburg. Once the cold front sweeps through tonight it'll leave us with cloudy skies for a good chunk of the day tomorrow before things clear out for Wednesday and Thursday.

The weekend will feature some clouds and possibly a shower here and there but overall we'll be seeing one warm end to the month of November as temperatures get close to and surge past 70 degrees! Check out the video below for your detailed CampusConnect forecast.

9/24 - 2pm - Ringing in Fall with Great Weather!

What a great day outside it is here at Mississippi State! We're still in the lower 70's at this hour and the dewpoint is staying low in the mid 40's too. This translates to a beautiful day with low humidity that's not terribly characteristic of September in Mississippi. Nevertheless, what great weather to ring in the first week of fall! Sunny skies will continue throughout most of the workweek but temperatures will rise through the 80's as we move forward. This change in temperature, and unfortunately an increase in humidity, will be due to a more southerly wind component coming into play that will bring us more moist air from the south. It's not looking like we'll hit 90 this week for a high at any point, but we could get close to it. A system pulling through by the weekend will increase our shower and storm chances a little bit by that point but it's not entirely clear when the best chances will be at this point. Check out my CampusConnect forecast below for all the details!

6/25 - 10:30am MDT - Great Faces. Great Places.

Today's blog post title is the South Dakota's state slogan. As you can probably gather by that, we're in South Dakota today! Southwesterly flow aloft at 500 mb (18,000 feet) will be present in the western half of South Dakota, northwest Nebraska, and Eastern Wyoming today as the general pattern we dealt with yesterday continues. While the winds aren't terribly strong, the RAP model is beginning to pick up on an area of enhanced speeds near 30-40 knots around parts of Western South Dakota and Northwestern Nebraska. If this enhanced area verifies there could be some better storms under it.

At the surface right now there are southeasterly winds across this area, but the more easterly of the wind vectors are favoring Western South Dakota right now. We'll see how this develops throughout the day as surface conditions continue to change. We'll want these more easterly wind vectors becuase they'll contribute to low-level wind shear that could possibly lead to rotating storms, should they form.

I say "should they form" because we're still dealing with some very warm temperatures aloft. These warm temperatures aloft, called "the cap", inhibit storm development because rising air parcels can't continue to rise buoyantly if the environmental air around them is warmer than they are. The good news here is that temperatures at the surface today will again be in the 90's to near or above 100 degrees. This will really heat up these surface air parcels so that they might shoot through the cap. All models I've looked at this morning have the cap breaking at some point in the early to mid afternoon, but where exactly this happens is still in question. The 14z RAP model has an interesting hole in the cap at around 4pm near Rapid City, but our current thinking is that the Black Hills near Rapid City will be a focus for storm development because they are a constant source of lift and thus a typical location for storm initiation.

To get some of the heating we'll need for storms to form today, we need to have a plentiful supply of sunshine. Right now we do have a layer of clouds over South Dakota that is inhibiting this right now, but western parts of the state are clearing out and it should hopefully leave us with blue skies later this morning. Storms should form sometime after 3pm this afternoon should things come together as forecast. The main threats will be wind and hail from any storm that forms, but we'll be on the lookout for some rotation in these storms as well. The Storm Prediction Center has a general thunderstorm risk for our target area today, but also mentions a 5% severe wind and hail risk.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates this afternoon!

4/25 - 12:45pm - A Hot Week in Starkville

The rest of the week in Starkville is going to be hot by most standards. Today through the end of the workweek will see highs in the mid 80's. Sunshine should be plentiful, but Thursday and Friday could have a few clouds thanks to a cold front that will be parking itself right over Tennessee. Warm southerly flow from the Gulf will also moisten up the air in preparation for our next (small) rain chance on Saturday. The video below is my last Mississippi State University Campus Connect weather update for the semester since classes ended today. Look for these to return next fall!

3/24 - 3:30pm - Another Very Warm Week Ahead

A few showers have moved through West Tennessee this morning and we're still holding on to a chance for a few more mixed with some thunderstorms developing this afternoon. There could be a strong storm or two, but it shouldn't be a big deal. Once the big upper-level low generating the showers and this afternoon's storm chance moves on through we'll be seeing clearing skies and temperatures in the mid 70's by tomorrow. The early part of your workweek looks sunny as high pressure builds in once again and we should see highs go 80+ once again by Tuesday. The middle and end of the week are somewhat in question right now, but it seems as though another slow-moving system may generate at least a few showers and storms during that time frame. Check out one of my weathercasts from this morning's Good Morning West Tennessee broadcast on WBBJ for more details:

3/22 - 4:30pm - Heavy Rain is Gone, but Warm Temps Remain!

Heavy Rain

Did you get drenched? I think we all did. The rain over the past 24 hours has been tremendous, especially across Mississippi as inches and inches have fallen from the pesky system that has been slowly churning through the Plains and now the South. Check out the estimated rainfall map from today below to see what I mean (the totals for West Tennessee are underdone but you get the picture of who saw some tremendous rainfall earlier today!) Most of the rain is now east of West Tennessee and North Mississippi, but a few showers remain and will continue this evening.

More rain will fall tomorrow afternoon as another piece of energy from the same system rotates around the Mid-South. The area in red with the directional arrow coming from it is called a vorticity max. Usually the area where rain and storms develop is east of the vort max as it moves along. Tomorrow's rain won't be as heavy as today's by any stretch of the imagination and it will be more of a scattered nature than today's washout. Once this rain is all said and done by Saturday morning we should be left with a very nice weekend and temperatures warming back up through the upper 70's across West Tennessee and North Mississippi.

The Big Picture

Let's zoom out more and look at the system that's been causing all of this rain as a whole. What we have is an upper-level low in the Plains that is slowly moving eastward. An upper-level low like this one is basically a ball of cold-air that gets cut off from its northerly source because the jet stream kicks north leaves whatever is in the base of the former trough behind. It moves slowly because the jet stream, which usually drives big weather features, is absent from the process after the low gets cut-off. The satellite and radar images coming in from area where the low is are striking... you can see very well the rotation of the low pressure center, which makes it look like a land-based hurricane.

The jet stream being way up north is also why it's been so warm lately. In the winter the jet stream usually dips down from Canada and brings cold air to the USA. Areas north of the jet stream remain cold due to the influence of an arctic air mass while to the south of it there is usually a warm, moist air mass. This winter and now into this spring the jet stream has not really come down from Canada to the eastern half of the nation. The West has had it come down a few times though, which meant snow and cold temperatures for the Pacific Northwest and even down through California. The reason the jet stream stayed so far north is that La Nina (colder than usual ocean temperatures off the coast of Peru) remained pretty consistent throughout the season. In an El Nino pattern, the jet stream comes down to the US with a vengeance.

Record Warmth

The above-average temperatures from this pattern will persist for quite a while it looks like. A cursory glance at some of the long-range models shows that the jet stream will remain somewhere close to this northerly position for the foreseeable future. With that said, comparing this year and month to years past is incredible. This March so far has been the warmest on record in Jackson, TN and Tupelo, MS and the second warmest in Memphis. Jackson is running 10.6 degrees above average for this March. Comparing the year so far to years past, this is the warmest year so far in Memphis and Tupelo, and the second warmest so far in Jackson. These are remarkable numbers and we'll likely see more of these records flash by as the warmth continues. A running list of how this year's heat compares to previous records is available from NWS Memphis.

3/14 - 11:55pm EDT - Record-Breaking Warmth

The warm weather we've been seeing across the region hit record-breaking levels this afternoon. Here is a list of some broken temperature records today:

Jackson, TN: High 84° | Previous Record 80°

Memphis, TN: High 82° | Previous Record 80°

Chattanooga, TN: High 83° | Previous Record 81°

Louisville, KY: High 82° | Previous Record 80°

Paducah, KY: High 82° | Previous Record 78°
Evansville, IN: High 82° | Previous Record 77°

Indianapolis, IN: High 81° | Previous Record 79°

Many other cities in came close to breaking records, especially in Alabama and Middle Tennessee. The ridge over the Eastern US that's funneling all the remarkably unseasonable temperatures into the area will stay put through the weekend, but a few shortwave disturbances aloft will bring storm chances to much of West Tennessee, North Mississippi, and even into Central Kentucky tomorrow and Friday. These storms will be more organized than the spotty ones that developed in eastern portions of West Tennessee and even up through Western Kentucky this afternoon. The crazy-warm temperatures are going to last at least another full week as this strong ridge stays put, so I think to say that spring (or even summer) has sprung before winter officially ended!

2/25 - 5pm - Simple Weekend Forecast, Then Things Get Complicated

After a cold front moved through Thursday giving us cooler temperatures for the last few days we'll finally begin warming things back up again in West Tennessee as high pressure begins to channel warm, southerly winds back into the region. Jackson should get above 60 tomorrow with sunny skies while Monday could be even warmer in the mid 60's with a few clouds. We'll get enough of this warm, moist air in the region to begin turning our attention to the threat of strong storms on Tuesday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has already put West Tennessee and North Mississippi in a risk area for severe weather on Tuesday on their extended outlook (right).

It's not entirely clear how this will play out right now, but the latest data suggests a threat for damage from straight-line winds. The worst severe weather will likely be in Mississippi where moisture will be more plentiful. My main concern at this point is where winds near the surface will be during this event. A secondary disturbance (called a prefrontal trough - see left) could be not only a trigger for storm development, but it may very well turn winds across West Tennessee and North Mississippi out of the southeast. This would increase low-level directional wind shear and hence increase the chance for tornadic activity on Tuesday evening. Again, it's still too far out to make an accurate assessment on this so we'll be watching throughout the remainder of the weekend and into next week. There may be a shot of severe weather as we head into Friday as well, so the pattern will certainly return to an active state after this nice weekend. Check out my forecast from this morning at WBBJ below:

2/8 - 4pm - A Sunny Winter's Day in North Mississippi

How about that warm sunshine out there today? We still have a layer of thin clouds north of Tupelo and over the Delta right now, but south of there in the Golden Triangle we've cleared things out for the most part and temperatures got well into the 50's this afternoon as expected. A few of these clouds may move in to Starkville tonight, but that won't stop our low temperatures from bottoming out around the freezing mark.

High pressure will continue its eastward march into the eastern half of the nation for tomorrow, meaning a continuation of the nice weather we've had today. Tomorrow's highs may be a few degrees lower as cooler air continues to work its way in from the north, but most locations should clear 50 degrees. Even though some of the computer models have backed off on this a bit, our next front moving through on Friday night into Saturday could bring us a few showers on Friday night. The bigger story with this is the plume of cold air behind this front we'll see. It's possible that highs may not get out of the 40's this weekend, so a little taste of the winter we've missed so far in Starkville will come our way for Saturday and Sunday. Next week looks warmer again and we may even breach 60 degrees by Tuesday! Check out the video for your Mississippi State forecast:

1/28 - 3:30pm - A Tranquil Forecast, Thundershower Photos

It doesn't get much better than this. After a bit of chilly weather today with highs in the 40's we'll be seeing the triumphant return of 50's and 60's next week across West Tennessee. This rather warm stretch of weather with sunny skies will extend all the way through to Tuesday. A few showers and storms could make their way into the region by Wednesday and Thursday, but other than that the rest of the week should remain rain-free for the most part. There are indications that some colder, more winter-like weather could arrive after next weekend, but we'll cross that bridge when we get closer to time. Check out your full forecast from this morning's edition of Good Morning West Tennessee on WBBJ below:



On Thursday a few thundershowers rolled through Mississippi State University as a cold front made its way across the region. Since skies had cleared out from the day's previous storms, the coupling of the sunset and the thundershowers with clear air around them made for some nice photos. A "silver lining" of one of these thundershowers is posted on the right and a panoramic view of the MSU campus from the 4th floor of my building as the showers rolled through is below:

Click photo for a larger view.

10/24 - 12:45pm - Foggy Start, Warm Day!

Some thick fog developed over portions of Mississippi this morning causing some visibility issues across the region. That has since cleared out and we're left with clear skies and temperatures that will be getting into the middle 70's this afternoon in Starkville. We'll warm it up to around 80 by Tuesday, but thunderstorms are on the way for Thursday and Friday as a cold front passes through on Thursday. Not expecting any severe weather at this point, but drier areas to our north will benefit from the rain greatly. Things should really cool down behind the front this weekend and skies will clear as well. Check out your detailed forecast in the video below:

10/22 - 12:30pm - Warmer Temperatures in West TN, then Snow?

Jackson, TN bottomed out at 32 degrees this morning, which is two degrees warmer than our low temperature yesterday but still very chilly. We'll warm things up gradually around West Tennessee this weekend with 60's for highs today, 70's for both tomorrow and Monday, and 80's for Tuesday. What a warm-up! A cold front coming through on Wednesday night will generate some thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday, possibly into Friday as well. This system has slowed down on the computer models a little bit, but I think we should have all the rain out of here by Friday evening. It will be MUCH colder behind this front and as NWS Memphis points out, there's even a hint of some hypothetical snow on the computer models with this system:

IN FACT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUB 540 DAM. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THEN IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OBVIOUSLY THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY CONSIDERING THAT WE ARE STILL IN LATE OCTOBER.

Honestly I don't think much if any snow will make it to the ground on Thursday night, but it could be close as some very cold air filters in behind that cold front. Check out some video from this morning's edition of Good Morning West Tennessee on WBBJ below:



I'll be on the 6pm and 10pm shows this evening (which will likely air a few minutes later than their assigned times due to football on TV), so be sure to tune in and check out the latest changes in your forecast!

9/12 - 2:30pm - MSU Forecast Update

Those pop-up showers and storms around North Mississippi yesterday won't see the light of day this afternoon, leaving us with warmer temperatures and sunny skies. Tomorrow will be the same story, but Wednesday will be a transition day of clouds and a small chance for rain as a cold front approaches the region. The end of the workweek, which includes a football game against LSU on Thursday, could be a bit wet as the front pushes through. Check out your latest Mississippi State forecast in the video below:

3/22 - 5pm - What Month is it Again?

Is it really the end of March? Feels like the middle of May out there this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 80's and low humidity. Unfortunately we have to leave some of that nice weather behind temporarily tomorrow as a cold front swings through the South bringing with it a small chance for rain during the afternoon and evening hours here in Starkville. Things should clear out for Thursday and most of Friday, but warm Gulf air from the south and an approaching cold front will trigger a round of strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday into Sunday. We'll see how that all pans out!

Speaking of severe weather, I just posted a countdown timer for my annual storm chasing trip to the right of this blog. Only 45 days until I leave for Amarillo, TX! Check out the video below your complete Mississippi State University forecast:

2/15 - 4:30pm - A Very Warm MSU Forecast!

With a ridge building into the region, we're on course to see even warmer temperatures than what we saw today. 70's will be common tomorrow around North Mississippi, and we'll only get down into the upper 60's as we cool off slightly near the end of the week. Our only chance of rain this week will be on Friday, and that probably won't be a widespread or heavy event at all. Enjoy the wonderful weather and your detailed forecast below:

11/2 - 4:30pm - Rainy Days Ahead

The rest of today and tomorrow will be pretty rainy as a warm front just to our south keeps pumping in the moisture and lift needed for rainfall. Temperatures will take a nose dive after Thursday as the moisture clears out of the area and cool north winds take hold. Expect overnight lows to be in the 30's by the time the weekend rolls around. Check out the video below for more details:

8/26 - 9pm - Two Words: High Pressure

If you remember anything about the forecast over the next week, remember this: High pressure will continue to keep things sunny and dry. An area of high pressure hovering near the eastern seaboard will meander around the East and Southeast over the next week, providing us with a continuation of the wonderful weather we've had here in North Mississippi over the past few days. The humid, unpleasant air that influenced our weather last week should stay south of a stationary front over the Gulf Coast. A small surface low associated with that front could produce a small chance of showers here on Friday and Saturday night, but I don't expect anything substantial. The increased moisture that will accompany this rain chance during the weekend will also bring back a small taste of humid air to the area on Saturday, but things should dry back up by Sunday and through next week. Highs will stay in the mid 90's for the next week or so, save for Monday when we'll see a brief cool-down into the mid 80's.

It's been a slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, but things are now in high gear. We now have Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl, and a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that will most likely become Fiona in the coming days. Neither Danielle (which is expected to become a major hurricane) nor Earl will directly impact the United States and should stay out at sea. Earl may get within a few hundred miles of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, but I don't see it getting any closer than that given the high pressure that's expected to be in place at that point in the East US. We'll keep an eye on the disturbed weather that could become Fiona to see where that tracks, but for now the US is in the clear.