8/4 - 11:30am - Finally, a Break in Sight!

Ridge breaking at 500mb on Wed.

The weather here in Louisville is about the same as when I left it last week on vacation in California! The good thing is that a cold front that came through yesterday will keep temperatures in the lower 90's today, as opposed to mid 90's for the last few days, and the humidity will be a little less oppressive. That said, daily afternoon storm chances will increase tomorrow and especially Saturday when an area of surface low pressure will pass right over us. That low and the accompanying cold front will finally begin the breakdown of this hot, humid ridge that we've been stuck under for so long, but not before some higher heat and humidity sneaks its way into the region for the weekend. Temperatures will be in the 80's next week as this pattern breaks, which could be temporary at best if some of the long-range models are to be believed.

So far we've had 40 days with highs at 90 or above in Louisville, with 18 consecutive days at 90 or above on our current streak. At this point last year we were counting 46 days in the 90's so far, so it seems this summer is a fairly close repeat of last.

Talk of development in the tropics has come to a fever pitch lately as Tropical Storm Emily seems to be taking a path that will pass very close to the southeast coast of Florida. The forecast path has been flip flopping around a little bit over the last couple of days, but at least right now it appears that Florida will not see a landfall from this storm. Emily has sustained winds at 50 mph, which is still a ways from the 74 mph needed to be declared a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center's forecast includes Emily reaching hurricane status by Monday well off the coast of South Carolina.

7/26 - 1pm - Back From Alaska!

After two weeks of traveling through the Alaskan frontier, I'm back home recovering from such a great trip. I couldn't post on here yesterday because I was so tired from the overnight flight and I'm still trying to overcome the jet lag.

While I was gone, it was pretty cool in the Louisville area. The highest temperature we've had this July was 89 degrees. Not having any 90's in July is very rare and we may even break a record with that if things stay cool through the end of the month.

Looks like the rest of this month will remain below normal according to the Climate Prediction Center's latest forecast:


On to other news... Tom Wills retirement at WAVE TV is coming at the end of July. He will be greatly missed in the Louisville community and I'm sure it will be nice for him to retire after so many years at WAVE. The search for a replacement meteorologist is on at WAVE, especially after posting the position as being available on Raycom's (parent company of WAVE) website:

WAVE 3-TV, the NBC in Louisville Kentucky (DMA 50) is looking for an experienced meteorologist to join our award-winning weather team. We take pride in being the market leader for severe weather coverage with an aggressive team of veterans who know how to showcase technology, own breaking weather coverage, and execute brand in their presentation. Primary shift is for the weekday 2-hour morning and 1-hour Noon newscasts, while also servicing our radio partnerships with live and taped weather updates, and recording weather segments for our digital channels during the scheduled shifts.

It'll be interesting to see who they pick. Broadcast meteorology job openings in Louisville are few and far between, so this is certainly a big opportunity for someone out there!

12/26 - 11:30am - More Wet Weather

I hope everyone had an enjoyable Christmas!

Scattered showers are moving through the area now and should be on the decrease for the next few hours. A slight chance of a shower exists for tonight, but Saturday night will be the best chance for significant rain. A line of potentially severe thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon, affecting mainly areas in Missouri and Arkansas. As the night falls and this line heads east, it should weaken and give us mostly rain with a few claps of thunder on Saturday night.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be very warm for this time of year. Today will see a high near 63 and tomorrow could go higher than 70 degrees! If we shoot past 69 tomorrow, we'll break a record.

Obviously this is not the time to be talking snow when temperatures are this high. We've been stuck with this ridge here in the southeast while a trough out west is producing cold weather and snow out there (remember when Las Vegas got snow last week?). I think we're experiencing an early version of the January thaw that many climatic forecasts back in the fall were predicting. The GFS has been pretty consistent in showing the return of cold air and at least a little bit of snow in the long range, but I'm not impressed with the strength of the trough it wants to give us. Its early to be talking specifics about any of this, but I think more seasonal weather will come back into the area in a couple weeks, if not earlier.

8/13 - 9pm - Who's Ready for Rain?

It's been a dry and cool week so far, but it looks like we could transition into a more active pattern. Expect a chance of rain tomorrow, with temperatures hovering where they've been for a while. The weekend now looks dry as the GFS and NAM models have backed off on low pressure interference quite a bit. That should come into play after this weekend and stay with us for the remainder of next week. We should get a few shots at rain with that situation.

One of the two tropical waves I talked about yesterday has weakened somewhat, however the one closest to Caribbean is still scheduled to become a tropical depression either tomorrow or Friday according to the National Hurricane Center. It's path right now takes it near the Eastern Florida Panhandle, a prime zone for development due to water temperatures.

The Kentucky State Fair starts tomorrow, so get out there and enjoy the nice weather while we've got it! Speaking of which... I've had this recurring thought that this weather we're having could lead to a change in our Winter temperatures. If this general jet stream orientation continues, it could very well lead to a cooler winter than usual. This is just speculation at this point, but there is talk about this on some private weather sites. The CPC still maintains a warm forecast for winter.

7/11 - 1pm - A Repeat of Yesterday

We're a little warmer than we were yesterday at this time, with the suburbs holding at 85 for the moment. Urban areas in town are in the upper 80's, with a high of around 90 expected by later this afternoon. Our next chance of rain looks to be tomorrow evening, when some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sunday afternoon will have higher rain chances as a cold front sweeps through here from our west. A nice week is in store for next week as high pressure sets in a calms down our general weather pattern.

Here's an update on Hurricane Bertha's forecast track:



Looks like Bertha will only come close to Bermuda, but not actually hit it. Forecast accuracy is key here; any westward movement not factored into the forecast would put Bermuda in harm's way.

Our weather for the rest of the summer looks pretty uneventful. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) has released the July-August-September climate outlook, and nothing is out of the ordinary for us. Here's the temperature chart:



We're in the EC (Equal Chances) area, meaning our temperatures won't really differ all that much from normal. The Northeast and the Southwest look really warm though, with above average temperatures forecast. The precipitation chart looks very similar for us as well, with Equal Chances covering much of the eastern half of the nation:



Notice though that the Northeast will see above normal precipitation, along with increased temperatures on the first map. It's interesting that an area in the southern tips of MS, AL, and GA will see increased precipitation. Hopefully that area can extend north a little and provide some relief to areas in North Georgia and the Carolinas, where water is needed pretty badly.

12/27 - 4pm - New Year's FREEZE

After tomorrow's rain we're going to slowly realize how warm it's been for the past couple weeks. Behind that front tomorrow night is some frigid air that we haven't seen for quite some time. I think we'll be in the 40's for Saturday and Sunday, but Monday and Tuesday won't even make it out of the 20's! We could even see some snow showers in here for New Year's Day.

I know that everyone is groaning over our lack of snow. I feel your pain. Based on some of the climate charts coming out, I think we'll have to wait until mid-January, when temperatures are forecast to cool off a bit and moisture will be on the increase. That's about all the consolation I can offer.

6/24 - 12:30pm - RAIN!!!

Its nice to see some rain around here. It's weird to come back from a trip and see the grass so brown. I was starting to lose hope on drought relief until yesterday, when we had quite a soaker come through. That small cell formed in just minutes, because the radar was clear when I left to do some errands around town. It was refreshing to say the least.

Now were getting ready to get socked by some rain in just a few minutes (as of 12:30). This is great news because we are 5 inches behind on rain for the year so far. I heard on the news that there are counties just southeast of Louisville that are nearly a foot behind their normal yearly rain amounts...

So lets get some rain!