2/11 - 5pm - A Wintry West Tennessee Forecast

A front that passed through West Tennessee last night brought rain showers during the overnight hours and snow showers this morning across the region. These have since moved out of the area, but the snow came down in some heavy bursts at times even though there was really no accumulation. High pressure will provide the setup for a very cold couple of days with highs in the 30's and overnight lows in the teens. Yikes! Tonight could be the coldest night of 2012 so far, which really isn't saying much since we've been pretty mild as of late.

Monday's forecast is flat-out complicated. Warm air overriding the retreating arctic air mass in place from this weekend will set the stage for a storm that could put down snow, sleet, and even freezing rain. Most indications are that this will start off as snow across most of West Tennessee on Monday afternoon as the lower layers of the atmosphere moisten up, but this snow could switch over to a period of wintry mix later on in the evening as the atmosphere warms up more (notice the warm "push" at 850 mb - 5000 ft on the left). Once we reach a certain threshold of warming on Monday night into the wee hours of Tuesday morning, all the snow, sleet, and freezing rain should transition to plain rain and the wintry weather headaches will be no more. Before everything switches over to rain an inch or so of snow could be on the ground around the I-40 corridor, including Jackson, according to the latest forecast models. Areas in Northwest Tennessee will switchover to rain a little later on than I-40, so there may be up to two inches on the ground. This is nowhere near set in stone yet and I'm willing to bet we'll see a few small changes in this forecast before the weekend is over.

The models agree that snow will fall across West Tennessee on Monday, but there are differences in when exactly this warm layer aloft will come in enough to switch the snow and wintry mix over to rain. The 18z NAM seems the most conservative on snow amounts at this point, with only a half inch in Jackson on Monday night. It also suggests that we might avoid a wintry mix and switch immediately over to rain. There's even a brief shot of rain just before the snow starts on that model. The GFS is bullish on snow amounts with over an inch in Jackson with the aforementioned wintry mix period (depicted as freezing rain on the BUFKIT output to the right) before the switchover to rain. The main issues seem are the timing of the warm air intrusion aloft and how strong it will be. So while this won't be a huge winter weather event by any stretch of the imagination, a few travel issues may crop up on Monday evening as the snow and wintry mix is falling.

Check out the video below from this morning's newscast on WBBJ for more details on your forecast!

11/6 - 5:30pm - Chilly Morning in Jackson!

It was downright cold this morning in Jackson, TN as temperatures bottomed out at 24 degrees during our newscast. High pressure will keep skies clear and conditions dry for about the next week or so, but stormy changes are on the way as we head toward next weekend. Check out some of my weather clips from this morning's episode of Good Morning West Tennessee on ABC 7:

4/7 - 7:30pm - Spring is Returning!

You may think that the title for this blog entry is misleading based on the fact that we're under a Freeze WARNING tonight, but it really will begin warming up starting tomorrow. After a low around freezing tonight, we'll top out around 60 tomorrow with a few morning sprinkles possible. Rounds of thunderstorms look likely starting late Thursday afternoon and continuing until Friday evening, with highs in the lower 60's for both days.

The weekend looks great, with lower 60's on Saturday and mid 60's on Sunday. Easter egg hunts shouldn't have any weather problems with sunny skies sticking around. Rain comes back into the area for early next week as low pressure moves into the area.

Thundersnow? In the middle of April!? That's right, early this morning a band of snow showers between Crawford County, IN and Hardin County, KY became convective and started putting down heavy snow. Lightning and thunder was reported in Brandenburg.


(Notice the yellow areas on this radar snapshot this morning... thundersnow!)

For complete analysis of this morning's thundersnow, head on over to Louisville's National Weather Service website where they have a write-up on this wacky event.

11/12 - 9pm - Dreary Weather

I don't think I saw the sun come out today! This dreary weather will stick around until Sunday after this upper level low passes, with the cold weather sticking around even after that. We're in for more rain tonight, but it'll taper off tomorrow and then restart Friday afternoon. The rain will continue Saturday and then change to snow showers on Saturday night as the temperature falls below freezing. We're forecast to be in the upper 20's at night in the Metro area, so there could be some slick spots as the wet roads freeze overnight Saturday and into Sunday. My thinking is that we could have a light coating of snow on the grass, especially in the suburbs, if the temperature does fall into the 20s. We'll see about that!

11/11 - 8pm - Yep, Snow This Weekend!

(sorry for the late post... I was out of the house for my 18th birthday today)

It's been pretty consistent on the models for quite a while now, so I'm definitely on the bandwagon for some snow this weekend. While it won't really stick to the ground, I'll venture to say that Saturday night will definitely be our "official" first snow in the area as snow showers (yeah, I'm going to call them showers I suppose) come into the area. Lows on Saturday will be near the freezing line so there could be some slick spots on the road as the rain from previous hours freezes. I wouldn't worry too much about this because our temperatures will be close to freezing, but outlying areas could have a few issues.

We're still on track for around 1.5" of rain this week as this upper-level low meanders through the region. Not much rain around here tonight, but it should restart tomorrow afternoon and be fairly steady until Friday afternoon. We'll get back into the 50's tomorrow with upper 50's on Thursday and Friday. Saturday and Sunday look downright cold, with highs struggling to reach 40!

10/29 - 5:30pm - Shaking Off the Cold

We got down to a low of 34 in the city this morning, just shy of the freezing mark. Temperatures fell into the 20's in the suburbs. It'll be cold again tonight, but not as cold as what we saw last night. Temperatures will creep back into the 60's tomorrow, with upper 60's and maybe even 70 for the weekend and even into next week! Next rain chance will be sometime around November 6th, so don't worry about any precipitation ruining Halloween.

With snow in the Northeast, we're sure lucky to have such nice weather! We'll eventually get our snow, just not this early. On that note, I'm planning to have some long-range winter forecasts on my video this Saturday, so stay tuned for that!

10/28 - 4:30pm - Freeze!

The NWS is pulling out all the stops by issuing a Freeze WARNING for the area tonight. The low in the city should bottom out at just below 32, but again, the outer suburbs and rural areas will experience an even deeper freeze. With clearing skies tonight into tomorrow morning, I think we will definitely get below freezing in the suburbs. The city is close at this point, but I think the temperature will dip low enough tonight.

Things will improve to the upper 50's tomorrow, with a low in the upper 30's for Thursday morning. We'll see lower 60's for Thursday and a gorgeous day in the upper 60's for Halloween. How about that! Looks like we'll keep the upper 60's around next week, as I promised in the forecast on Saturday, and possibly touch 70. Still not a drop of rain to be found until at least the second week of November!

10/27 - 8pm - Wind, Sleet, and Cold Temperatures

There have been calls in to various news outlets around town of sleet falling this afternoon and evening. With surface temperatures in the upper 40's and well below freezing at the upper levels, this is certainly feasible. I saw a few rain drops today, but no sleet in my neck of the woods.

Winds were a problem last night as the cold front came through, causing a very small amount of homes to lose power. I peeked at our anemometer display at around 11pm and it recorded a gust of 44 mph!

The Freeze WATCH is still on for early tomorrow morning, but with the current cloud cover I think we might make it out of the woods just above freezing. Rural areas might make it below freezing, but we'll see. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be the coldest of this well-advertised chill. Downtown will probably drop below freezing along with the almost certain freeze in the suburbs. Things should warm up a few degrees for Thursday morning.

Still no moisture to talk about in the forecast, but temperatures will be making a return to the warmer side of things. After a chilly high of around 46 tomorrow, expect temperatures to rise to the mid 50's on Wednesday. Lower 60's will dominate for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Keep the gloves and jackets handy the next couple mornings!

10/26 - 6pm - Freeze WATCH

While many of us in outer suburbs and rural areas have already experienced temperatures below freezing this month, it's finally time for everybody to get a freeze. Most of the city will stay just above freezing at 35 degrees tonight. Outer suburbs and rural areas will assuredly fall below freezing tonight.

Tomorrow night is when everybody will fall below freezing, prompting the NWS to issue a Freeze WATCH for the area. Tuesday night will have about the same low temperature, but Wednesday night will be a little warmer, limiting the freezing temperatures to areas away from the city. Highs will hover around 50 for the next couple of days with no rain in sight.

4/14 - 5:30pm - Freeze Warning

Looks like we're actually going to pierce the freezing barrier tonight. I saw this coming last week while putting together the 7-day and I said "No, surely not this far in to April." But the numbers kept confirming the freeze and so the NWS is now issuing a Freeze Warning for our area:

AS SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL
TO NEAR FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM EDT. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM EDT OR 8 AM CDT.

Now, don't get too upset about this because the 70's will be back by Wednesday. Tomorrow won't be too bad either, with highs near 60. We could get a shot at 80 again by early next week if the sun comes out long enough...