Saturday, December 29, 2007

12/29 - 8:30pm - Cold Air Coming

I'll be gone this week, so no more blog posts or videos until the 9th.

It sure looks like we're in for quite a shot of cold air after New Year's. We'll be in the 40's and 50's until Monday, when a powerful front will come through. On Tuesday and Wednesday we will not make it out of the 20's and there will be some light snow (little or no accumulation). After that we'll assume the same pattern we've been in for the past couple weeks, 40's and a stray shower here and there.

Have a great week!

Thursday, December 27, 2007

12/27 - 4pm - New Year's FREEZE

After tomorrow's rain we're going to slowly realize how warm it's been for the past couple weeks. Behind that front tomorrow night is some frigid air that we haven't seen for quite some time. I think we'll be in the 40's for Saturday and Sunday, but Monday and Tuesday won't even make it out of the 20's! We could even see some snow showers in here for New Year's Day.

I know that everyone is groaning over our lack of snow. I feel your pain. Based on some of the climate charts coming out, I think we'll have to wait until mid-January, when temperatures are forecast to cool off a bit and moisture will be on the increase. That's about all the consolation I can offer.

Monday, December 24, 2007

12/24 - 9pm - Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas everyone! It looks like we'll see some dry and mild weather tomorrow for Christmas Day. I guess that's better than rain.

Get ready for some cold weather though. It looks like New Year's Day until the 3rd is going to be bone chilling cold, with highs struggling to reach the 20's. We could even see some snow showers during this time as well. Around the 8th (yes I'm going way far out today) we could see a pattern change. The last two GFS runs have been hinting at a huge ridge pulling down from Canada and super-cooling the west and the plains, possibly spreading over our way too. If you want snow, this needs to happen. There just isn't enough cold air filtering into the East right now for anything good to happen snow-wise.

Have a great evening and Christmas Day!

Sunday, December 23, 2007

12/23 - 1pm - New Forecast Video

Merry Christmas everyone!

I won't be doing any more forecast videos until the second week of January. I'll keep the blog updated until the 28th and then they'll resume on the 10th of January. Hopefully we don't get a blizzard while I'm gone!

Saturday, December 22, 2007

12/22 - 8:30pm - No Snow on Christmas

Sorry folks but we've pretty much exhausted all of our options for getting snow on Christmas. The GFS is dry as a bone and our temperatures seem to be ever increasing in the forecast. I really don't see any good chances for snow in the next week or so either. Isn't that sad snow lovers?

I'll make a video forecast tomorrow morning since I had so many things to do today. Merry Christmas!

Friday, December 21, 2007

12/21 - 7pm - Suspicious Model Games

That title sums it up right there. I think that the Christmas "storm" (light snow) still exists, but the GFS and the others are just temporarily killing it for some reason. Henry at AccuWeather still believes its in the works for us too, with the same theory as I have. I just don't see how this storm could disappear this close in time, especially since it's Christmas! I don't know, maybe they're right and I'm wrong. But I still have lingering suspicions about it...

Anyway, I'll put out a video forecast later tomorrow afternoon and by then I hope we can hammer this thing out. KEEP SNOWY THOUGHTS!!!

Thursday, December 20, 2007

12/20 - 9pm - Well That's Annoying.

The GFS has vaporized our Christmas storm. What gives? The Euro still shows a low near here, but I can't see if there's any precip with it. I don't know what the GFS is thinking by playing with storm manifestation this close to the storm. I smell a rat... AccuWeather seems to be having the same problem right now trying to decide whether a storm will materialize. They say just to cool off and wait until tomorrow. I agree.

Until then, we'll see 50's and a chance for some showers tomorrow. A better chance for rain comes on Saturday night, with snow showers on the end of the storm by Sunday. Keep an eye on that Christmas forecast.

Christmas Snow Chance: 30%

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

12/19 - 7pm - You've Got to be Kidding Me!

So yesterday I was on here describing how bleak our outlook was for snow this Christmas. Today the models pulled a 180 and are now showing a possible storm for this part of the country. Do we get snow from this storm? Well, not yet folks. A few things have to get tidied up before we get the big one.

First off we got to make sure this low goes SOUTH of here, not ON TOP OF US, but SOUTH of us (as in the TN mtns). This factor absolutely blasted our last storm to bits.

The second thing we got to get in line is the cold air, which the GFS isn't doing real well with. Other models such as the EURO are taking the cold air and putting it here for that, so the GFS is just being stubborn like the NAM-WRF was the other day.

The third and final factor in this is the NAO value, which is the North Atlantic Oscillation (just the tilt of the airmass in the N. Atlantic). That is now forecast to be a POSITIVE tilt, which means this low can swiftly exit the US to the Atlantic via the Carolinas. This helps because it keeps the low from cutting northeast in a hurry, which again killed our last storm.

So, I'm going to keep my eyes peeled on this one, especially since it is a Christmas storm. So here's what I'm going to do; I'm going to put a Christmas snow chance at the bottom of each blog post from now until Christmas to let you see exactly what I'm thinking at the moment. Until Christmas though, we'll see highs soaring into the 60's! Looks like I'll be flying my model airplane on Friday!

Christmas Snow Chance: 30%

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

12/18 - 9pm - Back to Square One...

Well there aren't any storms coming up in the short range. That means we're in a boring weather pattern until at least the weekend, when we'll see some rain and maybe a back-end snow shower or two (just before Christmas Eve!). Speaking of Christmas, I keep getting asked whether or not it will snow or not on Christmas Day. Here's the short answer: NO. Here's the long one, it will snow (flurries) early on Christmas Eve and possibly a little more than that the day after Christmas.

There are a couple systems showing up just before New Year's on the GFS that looks similar to our last rain gusher (that could've been snow). I don't even want to think about these yet until after Santa has gone back to the North Pole. So just sit tight snow lovers.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

12/16 - 11:30am - Oops...

Yeah... hmmm... That snow didn't really come did it? There was enough moisture on the radar last night for 1-2" of snow, but it just faded away before it got here. Now we're left with high wind and cold temperatures. Oh well, maybe we'll get lucky next time. Sorry about that one folks.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

12/15 - 4pm - New Forecast Video

We're still on for some 2" or so snow accumulations tonight!

12/15 - 9am - Quick Snow Update

We had quite a round of freezing rain last night, but we're still on track for just plain rain this afternoon. The current snow forecast hasn't changed much, as we're still on track for 1-3 inches by tomorrow afternoon. The forecast video will be late due to a busy schedule this morning/afternoon.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Thursday, December 13, 2007

12/13 - 7:30pm - Sorry Snow Lovers...

Yeah, we're singing that sad song again folks. The snow looks as if its going north this time around. We'll still get some accumulation, but the rain will hold that under 2 inches (maybe just an inch). Our best chance for that accumulation is Saturday night with some snow on the backside of this low system. It really looked as if we had quite a storm on our hands, but its becoming increasingly clear that it will not be.

Something I did want to point out is that the NAM (18z) is giving us a pretty good dose of these backlash snows, but so far it looks like just one model run is going with these amounts. I also wanted to point out that we're still well over 24 hours away from the first flakes, so there could be some changes. At this time, I'm going to stick with 1-2 inches for the Louisville area. There is a distinct possibility for no accumulation as well. Something we will see is some sleet, due to the clash of warm and cold air just over us. Still some uncertainty on that end though.

Snow lovers: there is still a sliver of hope here. There is a possibility that this low could track further south and pummel us with snow. Even though the models aren't showing that, it has happened before. Just remember that the low has not even formed yet, so it's location is obviously subject to change. But right now, I don't think that'll happen. Ho hum...

Keep checking back; the next 24 hours are critical to our storm track.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

12/12 - 6:30pm - Ups and Downs

We started off the day with the models giving us all snow for Saturday, and a good chunk of it at that. As the afternoon progressed though, a small amount of warming on the models started chipping away at our possible snow totals. This same scenario happened yesterday as well.

I'll put it out there right now that we could see over 6 inches of snow if we can get all snow here. If we start with a little rain, I think we could still get a 3-5 shot. But if some of the other models are correct, we could see less than an inch. That's a big gradient!

Since this kind of warm-up on the models occurred yesterday then receded this morning, I'm skeptical. The HPC is putting us in a SLIGHT risk for over 4 inches of snow, but the MODERATE risk is just a few miles north of us. This all means that I can't tell you what will happen right now.

My best guess now is that we'll get a small bit of rain for an hour or so on Friday night and then turn to snow. Accumulations would be around 3-5 inches I would think. I was worried that the storm was definitely going north until the NAM pulled it WAY south again. (EDIT: After looking around at the other models more, I realized that this NAM is on the fritz, disregard this model run) Even though it was too far south for us to get snow, it at least balances out some of the warmer models. So really, just hold on until Friday when components start coming together and then we'll see what will happen. Somebody around here is going to get quite a snowstorm...

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

12/11 - 7pm - WILD Weather Week

Amazing! We hit 73 today, which is our new record high for this date. That won't last for long though as more rain comes in tomorrow and brings us highs in the 50's. On Thursday we'll see highs in the 40's with rain tapering off.


Now to the more important matter at hand, the possible snowstorm this weekend.

I just took a look at the 18z GFS model (which is now back to normal after yesterday) and it shows the heavy snow still in our neck of the woods. It is taking the low a little more north than the previous runs, but we're still below freezing for this storm. I'm a little worried that the low could pull even further north, but luckily (for snow lovers) its not doing that yet. If the low were to track into middle KY, then we'd see rain and snow. But for now, its in TN and S. KY on the models and we're still up for the storm.

How much is the next question. I've heard estimates of over 4 inches and 3-6 inches floated, but I'm thinking more IF AND ONLY IF it's ALL snow. Looking at the GFS this morning, I saw how we could easily be in the 6-8 inch range if things work out. I also saw on Henry Margusity's AccuWeather blog that another contributing factor to the snow amounts will be the southern severe storms that drift north and produce rapid snowfall rates. If this were to happen I think that we could see some extreme localized totals in some areas.

Remember folks, we're still 4 days out from this. There are thousands of things that can go wrong between now and Saturday, one of which is the temperature. If things look good by Friday, I'll issue a special Winter Weather Update video to give everyone a complete heads up on what's going to happen. Try to contain your excitement until at least Thursday folks, then I'll tell you whether to let it out or not...

Monday, December 10, 2007

12/10 - 7pm - Here's the Deal...

***DISREGARD ALL CURRENT GFS MODEL RUNS (0z-18z).***

Just do it. Please. Everyone. Yes, that means you media outlets.

I've just had enough of the inadequacies showing up on the GFS for the past few days. That forecast model is worthless right now. The problem is that the Euro, Canadian, JMA, and whatever else model you can throw at me are predicting a SNOWSTORM (you heard right) on the 15-16th (17th storm for NE US that I've been talking about) for the Louisville area. Right now the GFS is taking the low that is to produce this storm right off the coast into the Atlantic and then blowing it up into a monster. Not gonna happen folks. Nope. Here's why...

  • The NAM is going deeply negative (red lines on bottom graphic): This simply means that there will be higher than normal pressure in the North Atlantic, signaling a shield of sorts to deflect all low pressure to staying within the East Coast, and not going straight out to sea.
  • The GFS (I JUST saw the 18z run when writing this post and it brought the storm back, but placement is still an issue) is still taking the low too far south and making a huge storm in Alabama, which is just not the right solution given the current dry pattern there. The low wouldn't want to infiltrate that dry high down there, instead it would want to skirt along the northern edge, which is just a couple hundred miles north of the GFS forecast location on the 16th.
  • Henry Margusity at Accuweather is actually putting us in the center of a snowfall potential map. He's been pretty good forecasting the recent storms in the Northeast and he's been doing well down this way as well (although there was the storm a couple weekends ago that surprised a lot of people and went north on us, which was a close call to begin with)

(Read Margusity's blog here)
  • John Belski at WAVE-TV is going out on a limb (I'm behind you 100% on this) that we'll see snow on Saturday with this low. He gave the three possible low tracks (out to sea, S. Alabama, and N. Georgia) and said "I see the potential for a snowstorm". In other words, he's the only one in the local TV market calling for this (WDRB is 40 degrees and slight chance of rain/snow, WLKY is mix and snow with 30's, WHAS is cloudy and upper 30's.)
So here's my thinking, let's wait until Thursday and see what the models look like. If we're in the same or similar boat, I'm going to go ahead and call for a storm. Otherwise we'll just see what happens. Throughout the next few days we'll see fluctuations in the models, but overall I think this is the best shot we've had so far at some appreciable snow this season.


Now, shorter range (Don't you just love how I think in reverse-chronological order?)

We will see highs near or at 70 tomorrow with little rain expected. What a deal in December! The saying in Louisville is, "If you don't like the weather today, wait a little bit." That's just a little urban folklore there, but hey, 70's and snowstorms can happen in the same week!

Thursday, December 6, 2007

12/6 - 8pm - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

I thought this was something we wouldn't have to deal with tonight, but this low system has dropped south that is impacting the Midwest. Tonight we will see sleet, freezing rain and snow affect the area until mid-morning tomorrow when we should (in theory) see all precipitation turn to rain with mixed in flurries. Our low tonight will be at or just below freezing which will impact our weather for tomorrow. Downtown it's 34 right now and it's 29 out in the suburbs where I live.

If the temperature holds just below freezing we will see some major problems with the commute tomorrow morning. We'll have accumulated ice and snow (not exceeding 1 inch) on the roads in that scenario. If we stay above freezing, then it'll just be the bridges and overpasses that need watching. Personally, I think we'll see temps hold below freezing in the suburbs and right at freezing in the city. I cannot speculate on school delays for tomorrow morning, but I wouldn't be surprised if I saw some.

We've still got that 17th storm on the GFS! Remember: this is still 11 days away, do not get your hopes up.

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

12/5 - 9:30pm - As Promised...

The clipper last night really didn't sink as far south as I thought, but it was pretty close. Indianapolis got a pretty good shot of snow as expected, but we ended up with almost all rain. Temperatures overnight didn't go below 36, which hampered any snow from developing. That was the general consensus on yesterday's forecasts issued on it, but I thought maybe we would've seen a dusting. Just shows how volatile clippers are.

Now, as promised on my video forecast last Sunday, we're going to look at the long range prospect of some snow. As of now the GFS has a December 17th storm lined up for us, which has been showing up well on the model for a couple days or so now. Some model runs have taken it to more of a rain to snow scenario and others want all snow. And of course the amounts of snow in each model have been all over the board. After a really warm week for next week, I think it'll break in some fashion with cold air and some sort of precipitation. The solution that the GFS offers seems to fit, but of course its on the 17th of November, 12 days away from now. This is just something to keep in your back pocket as you prepare for the holidays and to check in on every few days for the next week until this gets sorted out.

Now for the shorter range, which is wet and warm as we head into next week. Tomorrow will be cold and in the mid-30's again, but we'll rise quickly into the 50's by Saturday with some rain from Friday all the way into Wednesday at least. Temperatures then will range from the lower 50's to 60's. So we're getting a reprieve from all this winter weather for this coming up week. We'll see what the week after holds later on.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

12/4 - 4pm - Clipper Coming!

Sorry about not posting yesterday... The whole Southeastern U.S. AT&T DSL service was out.

Here's the deal folks. There is an Alberta Clipper system coming tonight and tomorrow. This is simply a quick shot of moisture with some cold air coming from the Northeast in Alberta, Canada, hence the name. This does mean we will get some snow tonight.

The amount of snow accumulation will be a coating to nothing, but that's still up in the air. I'm hesitant to go with the National Weather Service's forecast in saying that we won't get any accumulation because the recent GFS models are saying that the moisture is coming further south and the temperatures will hold in the lower 30's. What they're going off of is the NAM model, which pushes any appreciable precipitation into central Indiana and keeps our temperatures a little warmer. These are very hard systems to predict because the low system is weak and is vulnerable to any slight shift in a neighboring air mass, hence the uncertainty in the storm track. It's now in Iowa and looks to be moving towards Indianapolis, which is the forecast track as of now:


(Click picture for animated radar)

One thing I want to note is that there is a secondary area of moisture starting to form on the western side of the system that looks very changeable at the moment. If this area continues to develop at the rate is has been for the past couple hours, I think we may see a little more snow than previously thought. Last year we had a clipper give us a coating (and one that gave us a couple inches the year before) that previously looked as if it would completely miss us. So just stay tuned because this forecast will change by the hour. Now I don't think we'd see more than a couple inches if the forecast track did change dramatically, but it certainly bears watching.

We'll see a pretty good warm-up by the weekend after this system passes.

Saturday, December 1, 2007

12/1 - 10pm - New Forecast Video

It's late, but it's here! I had some technical difficulties today due to the new logo and graphics coming in, but its been resolved now. Happy December 1st, the start of the meteorological winter!

Thursday, November 29, 2007

11/29 - 9pm - No Snow, Weekend Schedule

It's been long enough and I'm ready to make my final decision on this weekend's storm system. There will be no snow, but we'll see some moderate rains. According to the QPF we'll see about a half an inch:



There is a small (and I do mean small) chance for some flurries on the backside of this system Monday morning. It's interesting how this storm went from a Kentucky snowstorm to a Michigan blizzard as the week went on. That tells you how accurate the models are a week out. Until then we'll 50 with sunny skies tomorrow and then we'll drop into the 30's on Monday after the storm passes.

Here's the situation for this weekend. I just completed a revamp of all the video graphics on my video forecast. The problem is, I've got a test to take on Saturday morning. So I'll either get a new forecast video out on Saturday afternoon or Sunday. I think you'll really like the new graphics I made and the new music I picked out.

Don't forget that the Ryan Weather Store is open 24/7 at www.cafepress.com/ryanweather.
There are some great Christmas gifts in there, with t-shirts as low as $11 and stickers at $5!

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

11/28 - 6pm - Rain... For Now...

We're still on the rain train for this weekend's storm and that's what I'm going with until one of the models flips out (which will happen I bet). I'm thinking that we'll get some sort of ice or snow changeover at some point in this storm, but it will be short lived. With all of the models taking this storm north, I can't say too much else. I do want to issue this one word of caution though, the storm of December 2004 was forecast to be all rain just a couple days ahead of the storm. That was before all the computer models went nuts and suddenly brought it way south. If you remember, the salt trucks couldn't get out because they didn't have enough warning due to the wackiness with the forecast. So just stay tuned even though it looks very bleak for any snow at this point.

Until then we'll see clear conditions (little chance for some flurries tonight) and temperatures in the 40's and 50's until after the weekend, when we tank into the 30's.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

11/27 - 6:30pm - Snow or Rain?

The forecast is pretty much unchanged from yesterday's post. We still have a chance for flurries or snow showers on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The more pressing issue is this weekend. There are currently two very different solutions being proposed at the moment and I'm pulling my hair out trying to figure out which one is correct. The first solution is that we have nearly 100% snow for this weekend, although its been a few hours since any forecast model has shown this. The second and more likely solution is a good shot of heavy rain this weekend with some light snow as the precipitation exits our area on Sunday night. Since that's what all the computer models are going with, that's what I'm going to stick with for the moment. I'm still a little skeptical because the low that this is associated with this would have to dive into a mass of cold air, which would normally deflect it or block it. This has happened before though and isn't too rare. Late last night we had a huge rash of models suggest a snowstorm for us this weekend with multiple inches of snow. This is still possible because the models are notorious for switching back and forth between solutions, even just hours from a storm. So like I said yesterday, don't get your hopes up.

Monday, November 26, 2007

11/26 - 5pm - Rain, Rain, and uh... More Rain!

Today alone we've gotten over an inch of rain in Louisville. Luckily its over now and we'll see sunnier skies tomorrow with highs in the upper 40's. We'll warm up Wednesday to the mid 50's with increasing chances of rain throughout the day. During the overnight hours from Wednesday to Thursday I think we could get a quick hit of some snow as temperatures drop into the lower 30's, but I think there will be no accumulation (at most a dusting for a couple hours).

The real fun starts on Saturday when we get a better shot for some snow. During the overnight hours we could see rain changing over to snow for nearly the entire overnight period as some forecast models have been suggesting. This could continue all day Sunday into that night as well. Here's my big problem right now, there are conflicting forecast models for this storm. The GFS forecast model has been wanting to drag the snow further south, whereas the European forecast model wants to push it north. If you look at other weather websites you'll see that they have 40's and rain during this weekend because they are taking the Euro's model and applying a little bit of skepticism as well. The National Weather Service is betting on snow and lower 30's for Sunday though, and they are siding with the GFS.

My forecast is a middle of the road solution with snow on Saturday and Sunday nights but a period of rain Sunday afternoon. I'm just very skeptical that the arctic air will push this far south given the strong ridge it will have to displace. On the contrary, the GFS has been battin' a thousand for the recent storms in the Northeast and Midwest... I'll have a better grip on this tomorrow and a firm solution by Friday. DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP FOR A SNOWSTORM. Yet.

Sunday, November 25, 2007

11/25 - 8pm - Welcome to the new Ryan Weather

The Ryan Weather website has just finished going through massive re branding and redesign. With a new logo, new graphics, and renewed purpose, I'm ready to give you the most accurate forecasts this winter. You can now access the website at www.ryanweather.org . While you're there check out the Ryan Weather Store (www.cafepress.com/ryanweather), where you can purchase Ryan Weather logo t-shirts, stickers, hats, and much much more!


Now on to the weather...

While I was out of town I stayed up with the GFS models and saw some interesting things for next week. It's waffling around right now, but I think the general consensus is that we will see some downright cold weather by the first week of December with a chance for some snow.

In the shorter range, we could see some of that white stuff on Thursday as the temperature plummets. At the maximum some places could receive a dusting, but I think the most realistic scenario is just some pockets of flurries and snow showers. Our rain for today has also been impressive, with almost a third of an inch in SE Jefferson County. The rain will continue after midnight and through the daytime hours tomorrow...

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

11/20 - 7:30pm - From Storms to Snow

Incredible! Over 70 degrees in the middle of November, even better, the week of Thanksgiving! All great things come to an end as you know, hence the SPC has put us under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather tomorrow. We'll see storms with gusty wind and falling temperatures. Temperatures will fall so far by Thanksgiving Day (Thurs.) that the rain will change over to some snow showers (no need for milk and bread) during the afternoon and nighttime hours. No worries though, we'll see temperatures recover into the mid 50's by this weekend with more rain possible.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, there will be no video forecast or 7-day forecast issued this weekend. Blog posts will also be suspended until early next week.

Speaking of the Ryan Weather website, there are HUGE changes in store for it. Every bit of the web site's graphics are being revamped right now and there will even be a new Ryan Weather logo. I absolutely can't wait to show you what I've got in store! Coming soon to a computer near you.

Saturday, November 17, 2007

11/17 - 12:30pm - Forecast Video

I finally decided to go with a chance of snow showers (no accumulation) on Thanksgiving morning...


Thursday, November 15, 2007

11/15 - 7pm - Flurries!

For the first time this season, someone in my chemistry class looked out the window and shouted "Snow!!!" This caught me off guard and made my day considering how gloomy it was outside. The GFS had hinted at some renegade flurries, but I just disregarded them. Turns out it was right!

While out temperatures are cold right now, we'll be warming into the 50's and 60's by next week. All this is leading up to a possibly harsh cool down just after Thanksgiving that the GFS has been hinting at since last week. Whether or not we get frozen precip is still in question, but we'll at least get some rain.

A tornado occurred near London, KY yesterday... Click here for more.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

11/13 - 5pm - Yucky Looking Day

What a nasty looking day outside. It feels like I'm living in England with this light drizzle and 60 degree weather!

Another issue of note is our Thanksgiving forecast, which looks cold right now. I can't make a decision about whether or not we'll see any form of precipitation because the models are simply going nuts right now. That whole weekend after Thanksgiving looks very active for much of the country, but its hard to pinpoint where exactly it will be active. More on this later...

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

11/7 - 7pm - Backing off of the Flurries...

I'm now convinced that we're going to be much warmer than 40's for mid next week. The GFS has finally stabilized a little and I think the freezing temperatures and the snow flurries will stay well north of here. I don't think we'll go much below 50 if any next week.

Otherwise we'll be recovering from our cold snap and rise to 70 by week's end with some rain on Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

11/6 - 2:40pm - New Forecast Video

Here's a special Tuesday forecast video, since one wasn't made on Saturday...

Monday, November 5, 2007

11/5 - 7pm - Craziness in the Weather World!

Sorry about the long pause in blog/web action there, just too many things to do.

For about the last four days the GFS has shown a good bit of snow over us around the 13-14th of November. It was fairly consistent with the fact that we would see some sort of snow and freezing cold air, but now its wavering a little. As we get closer to the actual proposed storm day I think the model will become confused at times. This is because we're in a period of HUGE swings right now, which can make forecasting a bear. Might I also mention that we could see 70 degrees by early next week?

Here's the deal, I've been tracking this 13-14th thing in the midst of my busyness and you simply can't discount a long stretch of loose consistency on any long range model. Many forecasts have even gone with the recent two or three runs of the GFS and are now saying 50 degrees for those days.

I say NO. I will say lower 40's and no more! The GFS is so confused right now that I think it is contradicting itself. There have been three RADICALLY different proposed solutions in the past 24 hours for this system. The past few days have seen a general consistency with an anomaly here or there. I'm going to vie for consistency here. Yes, I know we're still talking long term here, but I think that when a model is sticking to its guns and then goes nuts, you need to stay with your forecast until another (or the same) general consistency is back.

This absolutely does not mean I'm calling for any snowstorm event here; I'm just saying that, according to previous GFS runs, that freezing temperatures and the possibility of light to moderate snow is possible on the 13th-14th. I'll stay with this until I see the GFS get its story straight. It seems that the 18z run came back to its senses a bit, but its still not back to where it was before. If the 0z is even closer to the previous consistent solutions, I'll feel much better.

I might do a forecast video tomorrow since I'm off. It would be up just before the late afternoon hours.

Thursday, November 1, 2007

11/1 - 9pm - That's What I Thought!

I hope that everyone had an enjoyable Halloween! The weather was nice and there was indeed a great amount of trick-or-treaters this year.

Now on to more serious matters, like a HUGE cool down that I've been yelling about for the last few days. It seems that the GFS is keeping its promise of this event, with each consecutive run producing the same general cool down around the 13th of November (which is consequently just after my birthday on the 11th!). I've been saying that there would be some type of frozen precipitation around that time and we're still on track for at least some flurries.

Finally, there won't be a video forecast on Saturday due to some scheduled things I have to do.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

10/30 - 8:30pm - Cool Down Coming!

Tropical Storm Noel is getting ready to graze the Southern Florida Coast, which shouldn't be any more than a nuisance. Our weather is getting ready to turn colder here after this week. The GFS has been wild and woolly these past couple days with snowstorms and freezes abound. In reality I think we'll just see some flurries at night by the 10th of November, but there is still the possibility for more.

Other than that, we'll stay quiet around here with around 70 tomorrow and lower 60's for the remainder of the week.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

10/28 - 8:30pm - 200th Post!!!

Woo hoo, this is my 200th blog post! It seems like yesterday when I made my first blog entry, in January of this year. Maybe I should put all my blog entries into a book (There's a lot of text I've put out)...

It's going to get cold tonight, like really cold. I think that the outer suburbs will hit the upper 20's with 30's in the city. Of course we're under a frost advisory, which means to bring in your plants so they won't die. We'll see mid to lower 60's this week with lows in the 30's and 40's, with no precipitation in sight.

I was looking at the GFS model today and noticed that it's trying to tell us something. I think we're going to see the cold snap to end all cold snaps during the second week of November. Yes, there is snow associated with this, but the GFS is shaky on where. The main point is that we're going to have some sort of cold November system come in, with or without frozen precipitation.

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Thursday, October 25, 2007

10/25 - 8pm - Finished With Rain, Cool Temps Ahead

Our grand total for shortage of rain after our huge rain event over the last couple days is 1.94 inches below average. We were pushing 6 inches just before it. Its good we were able to just about flush our drought out of here before cooler temperatures come in. We'll only see a couple chances for some light showers before we head into a cooler, calmer weekend.

In the longer range, the GFS has us in line for some much cooler temperatures come a couple weeks from now. I think we'll be in the 40's a couple days with the balance of the week in the 50's. We're still iffy on some flurries some time during that period at night...

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

10/23 -7:15pm - Wild Weather

The California wildfires are getting way out of hand. Over 1 million people have been evacuated, with more to evacuations to come. The Santa Ana winds (caused by high pressure in the Rockies shooting high velocity wind southward) that are fueling the fires are starting to die down, but there is no moisture in sight. Let's hope that these fires get under control soon.

Second item on the agenda is our rain situation, or the abundance thereof. My home rain gauge reads 3.23" for just today with a storm total (from yesterday and today) of over 3.7". This is about what the HPC said we'd have in last weekend's QPF before the amount was lessened in later outlooks. This is quite remarkable, I've never seen more than a couple inches in one day before. We're not out of the woods yet though, as we will have more rain tomorrow making our whole grand total of rain probably around 4 inches (possibly 4.5" if stronger rain bands develop). That's what I call a drought buster!

Finally, I need to address yesterday's snow discussion. The GFS has changed a little since yesterday, but It only pulled the low north about 150 miles. This means we could still see an evening snow on Nov 1-3 somewhere (as the GFS fumbles with timing). This is NOT a snowstorm. This would only mean a dusting to an inch MAXIMUM (at this time). So really this would just put everyone in the winter mood early this year.

Take a look at the just released AccuWeather Winter Forecast. The high probability of above normal moisture seems to be on every winter forecast I've seen so far (NWS, AccuWeather, Old Farmer's Almanac, and Farmer' Almanac). This doesn't necessarily mean this above normal precipitation will all fall as snow, but it would definitely mean an increase in the white stuff compared to normal. We will be anywhere from 1-2 degrees above normal for this winter, but don't let that quash any hope of snow, because that's just an average. Simply put, instead of a day being 25 degrees, it'll just be 27 degrees if you just apply the average to a one day scenario.



Monday, October 22, 2007

10/22 - 9pm - Snow on the GFS!!!

Alright, I went to school this morning and took a look at the GFS for grins:



Was I dreaming? Disregarding the model, I came home this evening and looked at some later runs:



Yeah, that's snow on November 3rd. I still can't believe it. The GFS has had its weirdness over the past couple weeks predicting some "far out flurries" in October, but I think this one might be valid given the general consistency of the model (they all call for some sort of snow, although amounts vary greatly). Then I took a look at the NAO (a measurement of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which determines if cold storms can pass through the East US based on pressure levels in air over the Atlantic). The NAO could go negative at the beginning of November, which opens up the flap for any winter-like storms to come through our neck of the woods:



So we just need to sit tight. There is another system Nov 6th-7th that is similar, but that's way too far out to conjecture. We're still about 12 days out on this Nov 3rd system, whether it be rain or snow. I think I'll have a decent guess by this weekend, but this still could be a model game right now by the GFS taking the low too far south. In the meantime, enjoy the rain because we will get a couple inches by tomorrow, with temps dipping into the 60's!

Saturday, October 20, 2007

10/20 - 1:20pm - Forecast Video

A calmer, yet rainier period after all the severe weather earlier in the week...

Thursday, October 18, 2007

10/18 - 9:20pm - No more broadcasting for today

I've been broadcasting this evening on the Severe Weather Video streaming with a few viewers. Thanks for watching! Anyway, I've got to get to bed at a reasonable hour (or try to with the storms) so I can't do anymore video. KEEP YOUR WEATHER RADIOS ON!!!

10/18 - 7:21pm - Severe Weather Update

Possible tornado is in NE Jefferson county. Sorry about the video coverage, I was eating dinner and the storm came EXTREMELY fast, so I didn't have time to prepare. There are more tornadic storms on their way into the LOUISVILLE AREA.

10/18 - TORNADO WARNING!!!!

If you live in West Louisville and downtown... TAKE COVER NOW! There is a possibly tornado producing storm over this area as of 6:50pm.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

10/17 - 4pm - MODERATE RISK of Severe Storms



Yep, the SPC did put us in a MODERATE Risk area for severe weather tomorrow. Areas just north of here will see a greater risk than we will for this because of greater instability and the overall timing. We will see these storms actually dying out as they come to our neck of the woods, although they will still pack quite a punch. Again, we're looking for straight line winds as thought a couple days ago. We're also adding the chance for a couple tornadoes too, but that looks to be just west of here for the greatest chance.

Tonight we'll see storms around the area with just some gusty winds and downpours. Tomorrow morning lines of storms in the morning through early afternoon. After a break in the late afternoon, the cold front will come through with the organized severe weather in the evening. This will be an overnight event, so make sure you don't go to bed without checking out the latest information on this system along with setting your weather radio.

Right now there is the beginnings of our storm system for tonight out in Oklahoma with some severe storms and a tornado warning in Arkansas. Again, this isn't expected to be a severe system around the area tonight.

Monday, October 15, 2007

10/15 - 3:30pm - Rain is Coming with a Punch

I just got wind of this graphic about 20 minutes ago:



That's quite a difference from what I expected! The SPC says that there will be enough instability on Thursday to merit a good chance for severe weather. Our main threat will be wind damage but I don't think it'll stop there (lightning and maybe more). I just got off of Henry Margusity's blog on Accuweather and he says it'll be a MODERATE RISK once the SPC starts categorizing tomorrow (they only go 3 days out). The NAM paints a good swath of storms in here Thursday afternoon but the HPC only gives us about half an inch of rain through Friday. If we can lasso in some heavy storms, as the SPC predicts, I think that number will increase significantly. Maybe this time we'll finally get lucky!

By the way, I don't know if I'll be able to do any severe weather video coverage on this one if it does happen. Given the time frame for these storms, I think I'll be in school. Also, the Ustream box on my page is gone because Google Page Creator recently made a round of upgrades and it kicked my video box off. I'll just have a link to the severe weather video page on my Ustream account there for now until Google gets everything all buttoned up.

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Thursday, October 11, 2007

10/11 - 7:40pm - Ladies and Gentlemen, start your heaters!

This is just amazing how cool its been for the last couple days. You could have gone swimming last week, but now you could almost ice skate! Yeah thats a stretch, but what a change! By the way, that snow I saw yesterday evaporated from the GFS model, as expected.

We'll push 80 by early next week and hold in the 70's until about two weekends from now. We'll have 50's for highs after that and maybe even a high in the 40's somewhere in there? That's a 40 degree difference between now and two weeks from now! Start getting out those winter clothes, but keep the shorts on standby. Our next chance of rain will be early next week on Tuesday with a pretty good shot at that.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

10/10 - 9pm - Huge Changes!!!

Wow, what a weather pattern to come home to. I leave Louisville at 90 degrees, and I come back to find it at 69. What gives? The answer is a massive cold front that gave us a nice shot of cool air starting last night. Our high temperature occurred at 12:06am, meaning the temperature fell throughout the day.

There's also another thing I wanted to mention that I wanted to remain very calm about:

There is snow on the GFS.

There is snow on the GFS!!!!

There, I said it. Yeah I know its a fat chance 16 days out, but the fact that some flurries made it onto a GFS run for us in October is really exciting. It was really pronounced in the 18z run, but the 12z put the moisture too far north. It's fun to think about, but really folks it just isn't going to materialize the way the GFS puts it. It's really digging the closed-off low way too far south and I just don't see that happening (although it is possible). So don't bet on any snow yet, but maybe this model is signaling a pattern change for a couple weeks ahead. Hopefully a wetter one!

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

10/2 - 9pm - Tropics and Changes

The GFS still has the next potential tropical system coming in weak near the MS-FL border (see Sunday's post). The NAM seems a little weaker from Sunday's run also. I don't think this will be a big system at all if it does develop, but I'm more concerned about next week when another system could be coming in. This one is really ramped up by the 18z run of the GFS. This one's iffy too, because we are dealing with the GFS here.

As far as our weather goes, we could see a stray shower tomorrow and then a better chance for rain over the weekend. Temperatures will also fall after this weekend also.

I'll be gone from Thursday until Wednesday so I won't be able to update the site. Hopefully no hurricanes during that time period, because that could affect my vacation plans ;).

Sunday, September 30, 2007

9/30 - 6:30pm - NAM Sniffing Out a Hurricane

I looked at the GFS and it had some sort of tropical system on the map for late next week. Yeah, we all know how accurate the GFS is. But then I peered at the NAM for Thursday. This is what it looked like:



Yes that is a hurricane on the bottom portion of the map near Louisiana. I would say that this is a terrible scenario, but luckily this is just a very preliminary landfall estimate for this potential system. This will change many times as we go throughout the week. This system will supposedly come from a disorganized blotch of thunderstorms just east of Florida right now. Now this is a similar route to a depression we had last week that made landfall in Fort Walton Beach, FL (great place to vacation by the way) that didn't cause too much of a problem. Hopefully we'll be able to say the same for this system by the end of this week.

I wanted to also point out that I made a mistake in my forecast video yesterday. I said that we would have time to make up our monthly rain total so that it would be near normal. I forgot that it was September 29th, there is no time to make up that rain total! So yes we'll be at a deficit for this month, but at least we'll be less than an inch behind on our monthly total. The deficit of over 5 inches for the year still stands.

We may get some rain tomorrow, but I'm getting signals from both the GFS and NAM that are against that. Oh well, looks like we're settling back in to our "normal" pattern for this year, high and dry. We'll get close to 90 by late in the week, but I don't think we'll hit it.

Saturday, September 29, 2007

9/29 - 2pm - Forecast Video

Had some video problems today. Sorry it took so long to put up here...


Wednesday, September 26, 2007

9/26 - 9pm - Not that much rain...

The rain gauge at my house reads .06" for today, severely down from the .5" the HPC had for us from yesterday's outlook. Areas north of here got way more than we did (some areas over 2 inches). Just the luck of the storm though!

Tropics are fairly active with Karen spinning out in the middle of the Atlantic and a few waves in the Caribbean that could be something to look out for. A wave just off of the SE of Florida is interesting, but I think its too close to land to get to hurricane strength.

Around these parts we could see just a few showers tomorrow just before the cold front moves through. After that we're in the low 80's for the next week or so. I've been looking at the long range GFS data just for fun and I'm seeing a consistent cool down pattern in multiple runs of the model. Seems like we'll be getting way cooler by the second week of October. It's interesting that we're transitioning so quickly from Summer to Fall here. It was well over 90 for a good part of the week and in just more than two weeks we could be dipping into the 60's for highs (if I'm looking at this correctly). Again, this is way far out. Remember how the GFS promised cool downs in August that never came? Just a reminder to take this model with a grain of salt.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

9/25 - 9pm - Tropics Winding Down, WAVE's New Set

Tropical Storm Karen formed waaaay out in the Atlantic today. This one won't pose any threat to land period! A couple other waves are out in the Caribbean but nothing really of note, save a low near Mexico that could affect that area. Most of the reports associated with these waves and lows are citing increased upper level winds (or shear) as the cause of non-development. This makes sense because we are in a period right now where a large ridge is sitting in the Atlantic (partly causing our misery here) and curbing storms NE and impeding any development that passes to the south of it. We have just a few more weeks of hurricane season left and luckily we haven't had any major problems this year in the US.

As for around here we were HOT again today! Did you know that we broke a 107-year-old record today? We reached 95 and shattered the old record of 92 set in 1900. I'm sick of breaking records; I want my (light) jacket back! This is the fourth and final time I will say this hopefully: there will be no more 90's for the rest of 2007.

Rain-wise, some areas were graced by the presence of a downpour or two this afternoon. My rain gauge in SE Louisville showed not even .01" even though we had a quick drizzle (and I mean quick). Tomorrow will bring more rain to a greater coverage area than today luckily. The GFS favors rain for us and I think we'll get around half an inch tomorrow according to the HPC's QPF:


Finally, I wanted to discuss some recent developments in Louisville's media sector. WAVE 3 TV just unveiled an awesome new set with all the bells and whistles you could think of. More importantly, the weather department looks like Captain Kirk's bridge on the Enterprise (or Captain Picard if you prefer). I've made some interesting observations about the set:
  1. All displays on the set are in 16:9 widescreen, meaning a possible move to HD is in the near or fairly near future. Also, the set is very large with a good amount of space between the anchors at the desk, which is needed for the wider aspect ratio of HD.
  2. The actual WAVE 3 logo that appears on the back board of the main anchor desk and on the LCD monitors in the weather department is different than the current version, meaning a possible graphics and logo change is possible soon (could be with the possible HD sometime soon). Kevin Harned's blog also alluded to some more changes coming soon, which could support this theory.
Remember that these are just observations and theories; I'm not spilling the beans on anything. The first station in Louisville to broadcast in HD will get a lot more viewers. I'm seeing more and more people buying HDTV's and they want something to watch in HD on it. Fox 41 (WDRB) broadcast Thunder Over Louisville this year completely in HD with rented equipment and it looked nothing short of phenomenal. If this were applied to everyday news (more importantly weather) it would be quite a revolutionary move. Sorry if that was a little technical but my secondary hobby is video production, hence the video forecasts every weekend.

9/25 - 5pm - Some Storms Around...

Right now there is a line of thunderstorms just west of Louisville. No watches or warnings are being issued at this time, with the exception of Jennings County Indiana, and video coverage will not be needed. We have the possibility of seeing a couple heavy downpours in Louisville this evening. Come on rain!

Monday, September 24, 2007

9/24 - 4:30pm - Mid 90's in September!?

Sorry about the gap in between posts here... It's been a busy weekend.

Wow, its 92 right now! This is supposed to be a month of transition between Summer and Fall, but apparently the atmosphere didn't receive the memo. I don't think I've ever seen 90's in the fall (which started yesterday). 90's look to be sticking with us at least until Wednesday.

Another note is the rain situation, which is looking questionable. Will we get some moisture out of this front on Wednesday? I think we may get some short steady rains, but nothing to speak highly of.

Finally, the tropics are still busy. The officially named Jerry is a depression spinning itself out in the Atlantic, which won't affect us here. There are two other areas in the Atlantic worth watching, but nothing all that great right now...

Saturday, September 22, 2007

9/22 - 8:30am - No Jerry or Forecast Video!

Sorry everyone, I'll be out of town this weekend and I won't be able to do a 7-day or video forecast. Here's something funny... Jerry never did become "Jerry". Tropical Depression 10 made a quick landfall on Fort Walton Beach this morning and never did reach tropical storm status, hence never receiving a real name. So I guess we'll have to see when another storm takes on the name Jerry!

Thursday, September 20, 2007

9/20 - 9pm - Quick "Almost Jerry" Update

So Jerry isn't quite Jerry yet. It's just below the threshold for a tropical (or subtropical) cyclone and it just crossed the Florida Panhandle. The Louisiana landfall solution (Cat 1 hurricane or tropical storm) is looking more and more likely. Look at these computer model plots:



Notice how close to Louisiana we get with the two leftward plots. Just a few miles difference and you're in New Orleans. The GFS is just about the same as these two models on the chart above (ignore the rightmost track, I just think that's too far north). The GFDL is also in general agreement with those models too. So I think we're looking at a landfall between Gulfport, MS and New Orleans, LA. Obviously the strength is still questionable, but I say a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane. If this storm even gives New Orleans an indirect blow, I would be worried about flooding. The levies are still a mess after Katrina and I've read news reports that say they are not even close to being ready yet. If this storm does hit New Orleans it will be interesting to see how the levies react. Since it isn't a whopper storm it would be good for the Army Corps of Engineers to get data from to see how much they need to build them back up to withstand stronger storms. I just hope we don't get another surprise like Humberto, that would not be good for the Gulf Coast right now.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

9/19 - 9:30pm - Jerry. Paging Tropical Storm Jerry.

Oh yes, this is real folks. Yesterday that low twirling around the east coast of FL was still deciding where to go. It just made a crucial turn towards the west, signaling a little bit of alarm. Once up to subtropical storm status it will be named Jerry. I won't hold this one back: the GFS says New Orleans or darn close to it. I know I have heavily criticized the GFS on tropical forecasting, even just recently. But this time I agree with it somewhat. The reason I say somewhat is because there are a couple other scenarios, but the GFS is being consistent (for at least 2 runs!). The second scenario is a Corpus Christi/Houston scenario if the high (which is making us dry right now) in the south stays its ground. The GFS doesn't like this at all.

Another scenario even then, but far less likely, is a Mexico solution that I saw possible. I don't like it though because at some point it will turn north. Now, what should the Gulf Coast prepare for? A Cat 3 hurricane. What will probably happen? A gusty tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane. Here's where it is now (#1)...



The reason I say prepare for a Cat 3 is because the water near the coast is HOT!!! Its the same water that nearly gave us a heart attack when Humberto unexpectedly strengthened into a hurricane. Yes, the models and whatnot are shooting for a Cat 1-ish hurricane, but I ain't buying it until we see what happens after the system's crossing of Florida. This area is too volatile to not prompt an early warning for.

I think you'll see this on the news tomorrow, because this could be bad for the Gulf Coast.

Locally, we're hot and dry until Tuesday. Its very odd that a drought like this is persisting well into September. I just think we're saving up our rain credits for conversion into snow during the winter (or rather I wish we were doing that, for a snow day's sake).

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

9/18 - 9:30pm - Why We Are Warming Up...

It was supposed to cool off this week and the next, but instead it looks like we will go for the 90's after Wednesday. This is all because it was expected to rain late last week, but never did. Without any moisture in the ground or in the air, the sun just bakes everything. Ho hum on the cool down...

No moisture in sight! NONE!!! Not one drop until at least next week, and doubtful at that! The only way to get some rain right now would be from a tropical system coming up north. As of now there is a disorganized mess of thunderstorms getting ready to transverse Florida from the east. The GFS has this thing being a tropical storm and hitting the TX/LA border coastline by this weekend. Other than that there are a couple slow meandering areas that can't get their act together. So you can pretty much throw our chance of tropical system rains out the window with the positioning and lack of intensity of the systems developing.

If we get a couple more weeks of these dry, hot conditions, it'll be a full blown desert here!

Sunday, September 16, 2007

9/16 - 8pm - It Was Certifiably Cool Today

Wow. 73 yesterday and 77 today for the high. That's the first instance of cool weather in a long time! If you aren't ready for Summer to be over yet, don't worry. The 90's will return for the mid part of this week, but they won't stick around. I know I've said this at least twice before, but I think that we will be done with the 90's after this week.

Now to the restless tropics. Tropical Depression Ingrid is puttering around slowly in the Atlantic. There is a change though, it will turn back into a tropical storm by Thursday and the track for the storm has shifted west a bit. Oh I hope this isn't another surprise storm like Humberto, but we'll have to keep an eye on it. Here's the updated track:



Let's also not forget about the rest of the tropics also. There are two areas marked on the Tropical Weather Outlook that could get organized, although they don't look extremely promising at the moment:



So all in all, the forecast on my weather page looks pretty good except the highs for Wednesday and Thursday should be around 90 and the rain chance for Friday has diminished.

Saturday, September 15, 2007

9/15 -1pm - Forecast Video

Cool weather, Tropical Storm Ingrid and more in this week's video...

Thursday, September 13, 2007

9/13 - 9pm - Humbert"oh!"

If you told me we were going to have a hurricane on our hands today on Wednesday night I would have said you were crazy. But this was really the case! Tropical Storm Humberto quickly turned into Hurricane Humberto overnight and shocked the meteorology world. Granted it was only a Category 1 storm, but nevertheless it wasn't supposed to be a hurricane! Max winds were just above hurricane status and its breaking up in Mississippi now.

Now to our COOL weather. It was 46 degrees at my house in rural Louisville this morning. I finally broke down and had to bring out my light jacket because it was just too cold to go outside without it. Our high temperature was a nice 85 degrees though! Its that time of year when the mornings are cold and the afternoons are pleasurable. I don't know if we'll consider Saturday a cool day or a cold day at 72. Since we've seen well over 100 many times, 72 may not feel as warm as it used to...

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

9/12 - 9:45pm - Like a Christmas Tree

The tropics lit up like a Christmas tree this morning. The depression in the Atlantic that was expected to be named Humberto was beaten out by the naming of a tropical storm near Texas. This depression out in the Atlantic is aptly named Tropical Depression Eight right now, but will take on the name Ingrid by the weekend. This one will be a hurricane by the end of this weekend. Placement and landfall is still very sketchy though.

Nice cool off, eh? The rest of this week will be in the low 80's with lower 70's on Saturday. Looks like the light jackets are making their cyclical comeback...

Monday, September 10, 2007

9/10 - 9pm - From Feast to Famine

Ahh... The half inch of rain that we received yesterday greened up the grass and perked up the plants. Now there's no more rain in sight, except for a small chance on Friday. I guess we're in a pattern that "when it rains it pours", yet when it isn't raining "its drier than the SAHARA!" It's interesting how we get big bursts of rain in between extended periods of drought conditions. I guess I can't say too much about this rain when temperatures this weekend will be in the MID-70's. Tomorrow's high: a bone-chilling (hey folks 105 feels normal to us now) 78 degrees.



Next order of business is a sticky situation in the tropics. Number 1 on the map above is slated to become a tropical depression by tomorrow or Wednesday. This looks like a larger area of coverage on this wave than a couple previous waves that turned into storms, so this storm could be a big one. The only thing I really know about it is that it will be called Humberto once it reaches tropical storm status. Landfall is still a mystery right now, but one thing's for sure: gas prices will go up if this thing even breathes on the US...

Sunday, September 9, 2007

9/9 - 9:20am - No Rain!?

The radar looked very promising yesterday, with batches of rain heading toward us. Alas, that rain all diminished before it got here and so we didn't get a drop yesterday. Without that rain, our cumulative rain totals for the next couple days just went way down. I showed the 5 day QPF model outlook from the HPC yesteday on my video forecast and it had up to 3 inches of rain in here by next week. That number is now down to half an inch.

I'm also worried that it could happen again today. I know all the forecasts and models have rain on it, but it's all going to come down to specific placement of these rain storms. Prospects for Tuesday also look a bit bleaker too, as the GFS has nearly erased our rain chance. We really need this rain because we are so far behind. This is quite the meteorological disaster, isn't it?

On that note, Tropical Storm Gabrielle (the sub- prefix was dropped) is just hours away from landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Winds are now at 50mph and the storm isn't expected to strengthen anymore before it hits. Luckily its not too bad of a storm...

Saturday, September 8, 2007

9/8 - 3:15pm - Forecast Video

Lots to talk about on the forecast video this afternoon, including Subtropical Storm Gabrielle.

Thursday, September 6, 2007

9/6 - 9pm - Weather or Not...

Alright, so there's a big area of disorganized shower activity and a low just off the coast of Florida and Georgia. This thing is just drifting around in prime development waters just waiting. There's a pretty good bit of shear associated with an upper level jet that's almost ready to bug on out of New England, and I think that's when this thing is going to go tropical. The models don't know what's going on because of this jet being so finicky and thus they can't seem to get strength or placement for this next storm right. So by this weekend, once a ridge builds and the jet clears, we've got ourselves a tropical storm, possibly hitting the Carolinas.

Tomorrow is our last day in the 90's for the whole year! Then we'll have a rousing round of storms this weekend that will lead to upper 70's for highs next week. That's right, 90's to 70's in one week! Here's the new motto for Kentucky that I made up in place of "Unbridled Spirit": "Kentucky, where seasons change in less than a week." Pretty accurate, eh? It always seems that we don't have any buffer time between seasons. It's always ridiculously hot or freezing. No such thing as "warm" or "mild" in the Ohio Valley. But of course that's an exaggeration.

Tuesday, September 4, 2007

9/4 - 5pm - Oh Give Me A Break!

This headline on Yahoo! News really bugged me:

Oil hits $75 as hurricane fears brew

It's so dumb that a forecast could make oil prices jump like that. Now I could understand if a refinery or platform was hit by a hurricane and oil prices went up then. But for a pretty lofty forecast to make a commodity jump like that is just unacceptable. The chances of a particular company's oil facilities to be hit by a storm are fairly low given statistics, so I really don't get this. Imagine what'll happen to oil prices if a hurricane slams into the US. But I don't know, I'm not an energy expert. Now my editorial comments are out of my system.

Hurricane Felix hit Nicaragua as a Category 5 storm this morning. One could only imagine the horrible destruction that it caused. Not much news out of there right now, which is understandable given the situation. Whew, two Cat 5's in a season is just too much. I do think we broke a record for the most Cat 5 landfalls in a season this year.

It's still very active out there now. There's a non-tropical low just off Florida's east coast that could develop over the next day or so. I see it as becoming a tropical storm that could make landfall in the Carolinas. We'll see if this happens.

The heat keeps building here. As of 5pm we were at 97 in the city and 95 in the suburbs. We're almost out of the woods though! This weekend we could get some appreciable rain that will extinguish our 90's for hopefully the rest of the year. I'm a little concerned that we could see some severe weather on Friday, but we're still a little far out on that one. It would make sense to have a little bit of severe weather because of the noticeable temperature difference between the two air masses that will be involved with this front. So we'll see about that...


Sunday, September 2, 2007

9/2 - 11pm - Oh I Blew it on Felix

Yeah folks... Sorry about that one. I said on the forecast video that Hurricane Felix wouldn't get past a Cat 1 or 2. Now its a Category 5 storm near Jamaica (Cat 2 to 5 in less than 24hrs, holy smokes folks). Yesterday the projections didn't really get past a Cat 3 at maximum. Then I woke up to a Cat 4 monster this morning. That made me feel sheepish...

No matter, here's the current track:



I'm a little worried about that track right now. It plows Felix right through the Yucatan and emerges as a hurricane on the other side, in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is a mess as I said before so I can't use that for guidance. The rest of the models show a re-entry into Mexico after the Yucatan hit, but after that flare up and surprise overnight, I'm still skeptical. Otherwise, I'm not sure what to tell you until this storm clears the Yucatan.

As for here, It's really dry. I mowed the lawn today and created the most sizable dust cloud ever seen to man. Not to mention that it all got into my lungs. With ground that dry, its hard to negotiate a cool down in the air. The ground only makes heating worse, which makes drought conditions worsen, and then the circular pattern begins. We could see rain next weekend, but even then its hard pressed.

Saturday, September 1, 2007

9/1 - 12:40pm - New Forecast Video

Hello Tropical Storm Felix! In the video I go over the path of that storm and prospects for cooler weather after next week.

Thursday, August 30, 2007

8/30 - 9pm - Tropical Depression Within 24 Hours

Well folks, it looks like we could be in for a round of drama in the tropics:


(This new experimental outlook from the NHC is really cool isn't it?)

My biggest concern is circle #1 on this map. It looks like its in the best position right now to pose a danger to the Caribbean and the US. This is the wave that could become a tropical depression tomorrow. The GFS has this wave doing nothing, but the GFS doesn't know up from down in the tropics right now. None of these tropical waves are showing great signs of development right now, but the fact that there are this many of them really ups the chances of one getting organized. So just keep watch on #1, because if it hits the warm Caribbean waters just right we may have a new storm on our hands.

How about that cooler weather here today? It was really nice not to be in the 90's for a day. Unfortunately we'll see 90's on Sunday, a little earlier than expected. **BUT** there will be no upper or mid 90's next week luckily.

This news article popped up today and I thought it was interesting:

WASHINGTON - As the world warms, the United States will face more severe thunderstorms with deadly lightning, damaging hail and the potential for tornadoes, a trailblazing study by NASA scientists suggests.

While other research has warned of broad weather changes on a large scale, like more extreme hurricanes and droughts, the new study predicts even smaller events like thunderstorms will be more dangerous because of global warming.

Full Story
If this is true, looks like my job will get harder as time goes on!

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

8/29 - 7:30pm - GFS is a Mess

Whew! Disregard that GFS for the next few days if you're hurricane hunting. As usual its flaunting specific storms, moving their landfall positions around wildly, and then not showing the storm altogether. This all happened in the period of one day. Nevertheless, the tropical waves that we need to watch out for are still in existence. A notable non-tropical low that kinda perked up today was one located off the coast of North Carolina. This low could turn tropical as it heads south into the Florida area. Since the shear (high-speed winds aloft) is very low in this Florida corridor, development into a tropical depression or storm is possible.

Of course there is still the tropical wave halfway out in the Atlantic that could bring something to the US in a week or so. This one has some moderate development conditions to work with, but again we're not talking about a wave as strong as the one Dean formed from. Again, just keep an eye out over the next two or three weeks.

Today was the final day in the 90's for a little while. We'll be basking in mid to upper 80's for a week or more, but we'll be pretty dry though. The best rain chance is tomorrow, and that's 30% at best. Gosh, it may be winter before we make some progress on clearing out this drought.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

8/28 - 4pm - Parade of Hurricanes

I've been "out of the loop" for a few days to get some school stuff done. Just by lucky chance I decide to see the Atlantic GFS model this afternoon. HOLY COW!!!

Yeah, that's because we are going to see a massive increase in tropical activity. The current GFS has a hurricane hitting the Florida coast on September 13th, and many more storms in line behind it. The minute I saw the model I saw it proper to call this blog entry "Parade of Hurricanes". Here's what I mean:

If you look behind the Florida storm on the left, you'll see three purple blotches in the Atlantic. Those are Tropical Depressions/Storms that have potential to become hurricanes. The issue here is not whether we will see another hurricane. The issue is where the next one will landfall. It is too early to take this model without a grain of salt. Even though this model run shows four storms we may only get two or three and the timing could be off. I'm not yet predicting a Florida landfall because this model is 16 days out. I can't even tell you what I'm going to be doing in 16 days so I sure as heck can't tell you where a hurricane will go.

Do not be alarmed yet, I'm just issuing a tropical **watch** right now. That means to pay attention over the next two weeks because this tropical season could get real nasty, real quick. I wouldn't be surprised if we near some records this year for storm frequency and intensity, and based on this model I think we could easily do that.

On the home front, we're getting ready to cool off a bit. Tomorrow will be the last day in the 90's for at least a week. I think we can all collectively say "Hooray!" to that. We have a chance of storms on Thursday, but I'm hard pressed to see any significant rain anytime soon. Maybe one of these tropical systems gives us some rain soon!

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Friday, August 24, 2007

8/24 - 10:45pm - "Cool Down"

Notice the quotation marks. 90's are not a real cool down because this is Kentucky, not Arizona. We'll be wavering in the mid to lower 90's for the next week or so, which I guess you could consider a period of relief. I think we'll knock out the humidity by late next week with a storm system, but I'll get around to that tomorrow morning.

Sorry about the blog posts being a bit lax this week. Since school is in I'm just short of completely swamped right now. Luckily I still have time on the weekends to do my video forecast. Sometimes its hard to be a student and weather geek at the same time. That's why snow days are so great! (Only 3 months 'till I start talking about snow...)

Thursday, August 23, 2007

8/23 - 8:30PM - Yet Another 100+ Day

It's not funny anymore. The temperature and humidity were so high today that I broke a sweat just walking around outside for a minute. We hit a record of 99 today, just above the 98 degree record of 1959. Tomorrow will see highs in the 100's before we cool of (if you want to call it that) into the upper 90's for Saturday.

Another item of note today was the sighting of a funnel cloud in the western suburbs of Chicago. Some damage also occurred with the passing of that storm, like a roof blowing off a warehouse. Luckily (or not if you want rain) we won't see that kind of weather around here for a little while.

Finally, the tropics are staying quiet for now. There are a few little tropical wave, but nothing worth noting. I do think it was interesting to see how Dean started as a strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa and revved up to the huge cat. 5 monster it became. The GFS had the storm on the map even before the low left Africa. Sure, the GFS was grossly wrong on the placement of the storm that far out, but it at least accurately depicted it as developing into a major hurricane.

Monday, August 20, 2007

8/20 - 6pm - Some Changes...

Remnants of Tropical Depression Erin will come and soak us down tonight. This is great news because we are desperately in need of the rain. Since it was hard to see this system coming up here on Saturday's model runs, I didn't really put a good chance of rain in my forecast. That's change #1.

Change #2 is Thursday. No, it will not storm on Thursday like I said on Saturday forecast. Later runs of the GFS and NAM now totally erase this chance and instead put a decent chance of storms on Saturday.

Now that the changes are out of the way, lets move on to Dean. The hurricane is packing winds of 150mph right now, which still puts it a category 4. The storm will intensify to a category 5 with up to 160mph winds before making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. While this storm will cause mass destruction in Mexico, there is little threat to Texas right now. The only real risk Texas faces now is the possibility of heavy rain from either the remnants of Dean, or one of its outside rain bands.

Oh yeah, we're still making heat records! This is the 22nd day in a row in the 90's or above, an all time record

Sunday, August 19, 2007

8/19 - 7pm - Quick Sunday Update...

It looks like Hurricane Dean will present little impact on the US. The current outlook has the storm hitting the Yucatan then on to the mainland of Mexico. The bad part is that it will devastate the resort towns of the Yucatan Peninsula, like Cancun.

We are going to continue to notch up the heat here. We did break 90 today, so we have tied the all-time record streak of 21 days in the 90's or higher. We'll get some spotty storms this evening with a better coverage area for storms tomorrow. After that we look dry again.

Friday, August 17, 2007

8/17 - 9:25pm - Flippin' and Floppin' with Dean

Alright. This morning it was Mexico. This afternoon it was Houston. This evening its Mexico again. As you can tell, landfall estimates for hurricanes are very sticky this far out. The media seems to hate that too, as it seems that every news agency wants a definite landfall answer right this second. I really don't blame them, we need to get the alert out as fast as possible so we don't end up with another hurricane disaster. A top official in Houston has even put the city on notice with this storm. I'm glad nobody is messing around with this one.

The short answer for the landfall placement of Hurricane Dean is "I DON'T KNOW!!!" I was starting to go with the south Texas solution until this model Mickey Mouse occurred this evening. Now I don't know what to say. The GFDL seems to always be the outcast model on this particular system. When the other models trend one way, the GFDL looks the other way. It's really quite a neat model because it shows a 3D view of the forecasted path. Here's the current one:

GFDL

It seems that the National Hurricane Center is going with the model trends. Due to the southward shift in models this evening, the NHC adjusted their forecast accordingly. So they really have as much of an idea about landfall as I do. So, if you know anyone in the South Texas Coast area you might want to let them know about this storm if they haven't already heard about it. Regardless of where it hits, I can make a good guess that it'll be a category 5 based on the water temperature.

Back here in town the weather has calmed down after that "shocker" of a storm. I must say that I was quite surprised by the development of that MCS. I saw the SPC's SLIGHT RISK yesterday but I never thought a line of storms like that would form. Did a number on our temperatures though! Low to mid 90's will dominate this week, which is a relief from our 105 (ouch) yesterday...

Thursday, August 16, 2007

8/16 - 7pm - .45" of Rain

Yes! We got .45" of rain at my house. Once the grass was wet you could clearly see how brown it had become over the last couple weeks. Again I apologize for not covering this line of storms. I simply couldn't keep the power from going on and off in my house for more than 5 minutes! So luckily not too much damage, but there were reports of trees and power lines down in several surrounding counties. But how about a temperature change too? From 105 to the upper 60's in Louisville over the course of just a few minutes. Quite a reprieve!

Now on to Hurricane Dean, which is now an actual full-blown hurricane. Here's the current track:


Here are my issues right now with it,
  1. The forecast track currently takes the hurricane into the Southern Gulf. This is not good. If the hurricane tracks just even slightly north of the Yucatan, which would differ from the current track forecast, we could have a huge problem. The hurricane could then turn due North and take aim at the Gulf Coast. If it tracks more southerly into the Yucatan, Southern Texas or Mexico would be affected. The affect to these areas would be less though because the Yucatan Peninsula would deflate the storm due to the passage over land. Although the Yucatan Peninsula would bear the brunt of a nasty cat 4 hurricane.
  2. My second problem is with the models. The GFS is now somewhat stable on an all Mexico landfall solution, and the NAM is hinting it wants to stay with the GFS on that. The Canadian model also agrees. But the GFDL, a more hurricane centric model, says it's going to hit the Gulf Coast and go North of the Yucatan. The National Hurricane Center seems to be going with a mixture of both, but keeping more with the GFDL in terms of long-range placement.
So really its anyone's guess where landfall will be. Most forecasters I've seen are saying its still too difficult to make heads and tails of models. It seems they are more consistent, but consistently changing their minds together. Does that make sense?

8/16 - 4:40pm - SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

Sorry I'm not doing any video coverage of these storms, I just got home from school and these storms just popped up. We are under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning right now. Clark County is experiencing up to golf ball size hail with heavy rain. The main line of storms won't be here for an hour or two. Since these little cells are exiting the county now, I'll wait to start broadcasting on my severe weather coverage channel until the main line comes through, but only if it's severe.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

8/15 - 8pm - Hurricane Dean.... Coming Soon.

Whoa! TS Dean really cranked up today. The NHC said this thing already has a partial eye wall. According to the NHC and Accuweather, this storm will be a category 1 hurricane tomorrow. That's right, not day 5 as I said yesterday, but tomorrow. As far as the track goes, it seems to be taking a more southward path just south of Cuba, but its not for sure. I'm still hearing the Gulf Coast landfall solution reverberating through the meteorology world. I still think this storm could clip Florida and bang up the Gulf Coast.

And how about Tropical Storm Erin? That storm strengthened pretty quick too, just right off the coast of Texas. This one could be the big surprise of the season. I've seen some suggest that there is a possibility that it could become a category 1 hurricane before it landfalls in Texas. While that is a possibility, I think that it won't be too bad. This area doesn't need the rain though, and this storm could bring a lot of it.

Locally, it was hot today! We broke a record with a high of 103 degrees today. That breaks our 102 record we set last week! I think we'll see one more day in the 100's before cooling off into the 80's for the weekend. We're under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather tomorrow. Maybe we'll get lucky with some rain!

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

8/12 - 8:20pm - TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORMS

Well it happened. Just like Accuweather, the NHC, and everyone else on the planet said would happen, TD 4 is now Tropical Storm Dean. Here's the interesting part:

The NHC says this thing will be a hurricane in 5 days.

Now there are two tracks that everyone seems to be advertising for this thing: a spinout into the Atlantic or a Gulf Coast hurricane. The NHC and myself are both sticking with the GFS solution: the Gulf Coast. Why? Well a large ridge is going to slide off the east coast, north of this thing, and prohibit any northward movement in the open Atlantic. But once the ridge slides out to sea, the hurricane will be in the Gulf. Because this ridge is sliding off, the hurricane shoot north and hit the coast. Who's coast you ask? I don't know yet. Pretty much anywhere from Texas to Florida and a chance for even the Carolinas too.

All I have to say is that based on the historical tracks of storms in this region that various agencies have put out, it looks like the Gulf Coast or no coast at all. Since this ridge is in place, one would believe the former will occur. Just sit tight though because this may be an emotional wild ride as this track is decided. I have to make this disclaimer right now: New Orleans has a chance of getting this one. The latest GFS model had the worst possible situation for New Orleans, but I don't think its necessary to show that when the GFS is all over the place with this thing. Everyone needs to be alert with this storm because I think it may be THE storm if the right elements come together this week.