Tuesday, October 30, 2007

10/30 - 8:30pm - Cool Down Coming!

Tropical Storm Noel is getting ready to graze the Southern Florida Coast, which shouldn't be any more than a nuisance. Our weather is getting ready to turn colder here after this week. The GFS has been wild and woolly these past couple days with snowstorms and freezes abound. In reality I think we'll just see some flurries at night by the 10th of November, but there is still the possibility for more.

Other than that, we'll stay quiet around here with around 70 tomorrow and lower 60's for the remainder of the week.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

10/28 - 8:30pm - 200th Post!!!

Woo hoo, this is my 200th blog post! It seems like yesterday when I made my first blog entry, in January of this year. Maybe I should put all my blog entries into a book (There's a lot of text I've put out)...

It's going to get cold tonight, like really cold. I think that the outer suburbs will hit the upper 20's with 30's in the city. Of course we're under a frost advisory, which means to bring in your plants so they won't die. We'll see mid to lower 60's this week with lows in the 30's and 40's, with no precipitation in sight.

I was looking at the GFS model today and noticed that it's trying to tell us something. I think we're going to see the cold snap to end all cold snaps during the second week of November. Yes, there is snow associated with this, but the GFS is shaky on where. The main point is that we're going to have some sort of cold November system come in, with or without frozen precipitation.

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Thursday, October 25, 2007

10/25 - 8pm - Finished With Rain, Cool Temps Ahead

Our grand total for shortage of rain after our huge rain event over the last couple days is 1.94 inches below average. We were pushing 6 inches just before it. Its good we were able to just about flush our drought out of here before cooler temperatures come in. We'll only see a couple chances for some light showers before we head into a cooler, calmer weekend.

In the longer range, the GFS has us in line for some much cooler temperatures come a couple weeks from now. I think we'll be in the 40's a couple days with the balance of the week in the 50's. We're still iffy on some flurries some time during that period at night...

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

10/23 -7:15pm - Wild Weather

The California wildfires are getting way out of hand. Over 1 million people have been evacuated, with more to evacuations to come. The Santa Ana winds (caused by high pressure in the Rockies shooting high velocity wind southward) that are fueling the fires are starting to die down, but there is no moisture in sight. Let's hope that these fires get under control soon.

Second item on the agenda is our rain situation, or the abundance thereof. My home rain gauge reads 3.23" for just today with a storm total (from yesterday and today) of over 3.7". This is about what the HPC said we'd have in last weekend's QPF before the amount was lessened in later outlooks. This is quite remarkable, I've never seen more than a couple inches in one day before. We're not out of the woods yet though, as we will have more rain tomorrow making our whole grand total of rain probably around 4 inches (possibly 4.5" if stronger rain bands develop). That's what I call a drought buster!

Finally, I need to address yesterday's snow discussion. The GFS has changed a little since yesterday, but It only pulled the low north about 150 miles. This means we could still see an evening snow on Nov 1-3 somewhere (as the GFS fumbles with timing). This is NOT a snowstorm. This would only mean a dusting to an inch MAXIMUM (at this time). So really this would just put everyone in the winter mood early this year.

Take a look at the just released AccuWeather Winter Forecast. The high probability of above normal moisture seems to be on every winter forecast I've seen so far (NWS, AccuWeather, Old Farmer's Almanac, and Farmer' Almanac). This doesn't necessarily mean this above normal precipitation will all fall as snow, but it would definitely mean an increase in the white stuff compared to normal. We will be anywhere from 1-2 degrees above normal for this winter, but don't let that quash any hope of snow, because that's just an average. Simply put, instead of a day being 25 degrees, it'll just be 27 degrees if you just apply the average to a one day scenario.

Monday, October 22, 2007

10/22 - 9pm - Snow on the GFS!!!

Alright, I went to school this morning and took a look at the GFS for grins:

Was I dreaming? Disregarding the model, I came home this evening and looked at some later runs:

Yeah, that's snow on November 3rd. I still can't believe it. The GFS has had its weirdness over the past couple weeks predicting some "far out flurries" in October, but I think this one might be valid given the general consistency of the model (they all call for some sort of snow, although amounts vary greatly). Then I took a look at the NAO (a measurement of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which determines if cold storms can pass through the East US based on pressure levels in air over the Atlantic). The NAO could go negative at the beginning of November, which opens up the flap for any winter-like storms to come through our neck of the woods:

So we just need to sit tight. There is another system Nov 6th-7th that is similar, but that's way too far out to conjecture. We're still about 12 days out on this Nov 3rd system, whether it be rain or snow. I think I'll have a decent guess by this weekend, but this still could be a model game right now by the GFS taking the low too far south. In the meantime, enjoy the rain because we will get a couple inches by tomorrow, with temps dipping into the 60's!

Saturday, October 20, 2007

10/20 - 1:20pm - Forecast Video

A calmer, yet rainier period after all the severe weather earlier in the week...

Thursday, October 18, 2007

10/18 - 9:20pm - No more broadcasting for today

I've been broadcasting this evening on the Severe Weather Video streaming with a few viewers. Thanks for watching! Anyway, I've got to get to bed at a reasonable hour (or try to with the storms) so I can't do anymore video. KEEP YOUR WEATHER RADIOS ON!!!

10/18 - 7:21pm - Severe Weather Update

Possible tornado is in NE Jefferson county. Sorry about the video coverage, I was eating dinner and the storm came EXTREMELY fast, so I didn't have time to prepare. There are more tornadic storms on their way into the LOUISVILLE AREA.


If you live in West Louisville and downtown... TAKE COVER NOW! There is a possibly tornado producing storm over this area as of 6:50pm.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

10/17 - 4pm - MODERATE RISK of Severe Storms

Yep, the SPC did put us in a MODERATE Risk area for severe weather tomorrow. Areas just north of here will see a greater risk than we will for this because of greater instability and the overall timing. We will see these storms actually dying out as they come to our neck of the woods, although they will still pack quite a punch. Again, we're looking for straight line winds as thought a couple days ago. We're also adding the chance for a couple tornadoes too, but that looks to be just west of here for the greatest chance.

Tonight we'll see storms around the area with just some gusty winds and downpours. Tomorrow morning lines of storms in the morning through early afternoon. After a break in the late afternoon, the cold front will come through with the organized severe weather in the evening. This will be an overnight event, so make sure you don't go to bed without checking out the latest information on this system along with setting your weather radio.

Right now there is the beginnings of our storm system for tonight out in Oklahoma with some severe storms and a tornado warning in Arkansas. Again, this isn't expected to be a severe system around the area tonight.

Monday, October 15, 2007

10/15 - 3:30pm - Rain is Coming with a Punch

I just got wind of this graphic about 20 minutes ago:

That's quite a difference from what I expected! The SPC says that there will be enough instability on Thursday to merit a good chance for severe weather. Our main threat will be wind damage but I don't think it'll stop there (lightning and maybe more). I just got off of Henry Margusity's blog on Accuweather and he says it'll be a MODERATE RISK once the SPC starts categorizing tomorrow (they only go 3 days out). The NAM paints a good swath of storms in here Thursday afternoon but the HPC only gives us about half an inch of rain through Friday. If we can lasso in some heavy storms, as the SPC predicts, I think that number will increase significantly. Maybe this time we'll finally get lucky!

By the way, I don't know if I'll be able to do any severe weather video coverage on this one if it does happen. Given the time frame for these storms, I think I'll be in school. Also, the Ustream box on my page is gone because Google Page Creator recently made a round of upgrades and it kicked my video box off. I'll just have a link to the severe weather video page on my Ustream account there for now until Google gets everything all buttoned up.

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Thursday, October 11, 2007

10/11 - 7:40pm - Ladies and Gentlemen, start your heaters!

This is just amazing how cool its been for the last couple days. You could have gone swimming last week, but now you could almost ice skate! Yeah thats a stretch, but what a change! By the way, that snow I saw yesterday evaporated from the GFS model, as expected.

We'll push 80 by early next week and hold in the 70's until about two weekends from now. We'll have 50's for highs after that and maybe even a high in the 40's somewhere in there? That's a 40 degree difference between now and two weeks from now! Start getting out those winter clothes, but keep the shorts on standby. Our next chance of rain will be early next week on Tuesday with a pretty good shot at that.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

10/10 - 9pm - Huge Changes!!!

Wow, what a weather pattern to come home to. I leave Louisville at 90 degrees, and I come back to find it at 69. What gives? The answer is a massive cold front that gave us a nice shot of cool air starting last night. Our high temperature occurred at 12:06am, meaning the temperature fell throughout the day.

There's also another thing I wanted to mention that I wanted to remain very calm about:

There is snow on the GFS.

There is snow on the GFS!!!!

There, I said it. Yeah I know its a fat chance 16 days out, but the fact that some flurries made it onto a GFS run for us in October is really exciting. It was really pronounced in the 18z run, but the 12z put the moisture too far north. It's fun to think about, but really folks it just isn't going to materialize the way the GFS puts it. It's really digging the closed-off low way too far south and I just don't see that happening (although it is possible). So don't bet on any snow yet, but maybe this model is signaling a pattern change for a couple weeks ahead. Hopefully a wetter one!

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

10/2 - 9pm - Tropics and Changes

The GFS still has the next potential tropical system coming in weak near the MS-FL border (see Sunday's post). The NAM seems a little weaker from Sunday's run also. I don't think this will be a big system at all if it does develop, but I'm more concerned about next week when another system could be coming in. This one is really ramped up by the 18z run of the GFS. This one's iffy too, because we are dealing with the GFS here.

As far as our weather goes, we could see a stray shower tomorrow and then a better chance for rain over the weekend. Temperatures will also fall after this weekend also.

I'll be gone from Thursday until Wednesday so I won't be able to update the site. Hopefully no hurricanes during that time period, because that could affect my vacation plans ;).