1/15 - 8pm - Just Plain Rain for Starkville, but Snow Later?

While the Delta region has been plagued by an ice storm yesterday and today we've been lucky enough here in Starkville to just be experiencing plain rain and temperatures above freezing. It's 35 degrees in Starkville right now and it still looks like we'll keep above freezing for the remainder of the overnight hours. A Flash Flood Watch is still in effect through late tonight for the area due to all the heavy rain we've had. As this rain begins to move out tomorrow evening there's a chance that some of this could as snow. It's not real clear who will get the most snow and how much, but there's at least some potential for light snow as we go through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. That forecast will continue to be fine-tuned throughout the day tomorrow. Check out my video below for all you need to plan your week!

12/30 - 8pm - Anyone Up for a Third Round of Wintry Weather?

With two winter weather events within a week's time in the books for Kentuckiana, it's apparently time for a third! Unfortunately the timing for this one is pretty bad. Just as folks are going home from New Year's parties in the early hours of Tuesday morning we could have snow, sleet, or even freezing rain falling in the region. The good news here is that regardless of what falls from the sky, there won't be much of it. Precipitation amounts will remain light since heavy rain and storms in the South will be stealing our moisture here up north in Kentucky and Indiana during the time of the event. As far as timing goes, a few snow showers will move through tomorrow afternoon as this system begins to move toward us. Going into the evening is when things get tricky.

As a weak area of low pressure continues to approach we'll see some warming aloft out ahead of it. This warming has the potential to turn our falling snow into sleet or even freezing rain. The GFS is leading the charge at the moment on the potential for freezing rain in Louisville as it has a layer above freezing from 4,000 to 7,000 feet at 4am on Tuesday morning that would support freezing rain. The NAM model keeps us all snow with the entire atmosphere being below freezing. Given that the models have overestimated temperatures aloft with the past two snowstorms we've seen lately, I'm inclined to think that Louisville will stay mostly or all snow. Another thing to focus on will be surface temperatures. Should they be just below freezing this snow, sleet, or freezing rain will stick to the roads and make for tricky travel on late Monday night. If they're just above freezing then only expect to see accumulation on the grass and elevated surfaces. We do have a bit of snowcover in Louisville now, so that might lean us more in the direction of below freezing instead of above for this event overnight Monday into Tuesday. We're going to be awfully close to freezing for much of the night regardless. Areas north of the city will likely stay all snow and below freezing while those areas to the south will see a wintry mix and temperatures just above freezing until the early morning hours. National Weather Service offices across the Plains have issued Winter Weather Advisories due to this system, in purple on the image to the left, but uncertainty about precipitation type and amounts in the Ohio Valley has NWS Louisville waiting for more agreement before they issue any advisories.

Like I said before, accumulations are going to be light for this event. The NAM (right) has up to an inch of snow in many areas and the GFS model has been a little more optimistic at times today with 1-3" across the area. Like the last two snow events, I'm thinking that the amount of precipitation being put out on the models will adjust upward a bit as we get closer to time (tonight and tomorrow morning). Given the trends I'm seeing right now I think we'll see 1-2" of snow in portions of Louisville and points northward with up to an inch of snow and mixed precipitation to the south. Once again... grumble grumble grumble... Louisville is right on the line between feast and famine with the snow. Southern Indiana has been the big winner with snow over the past week while folks south of the Ohio River are raising their hands in favor of more. That is, if you're a snow lover of course. So, we'll be looking to see over the next few hours how the models handle the amount of precipitation forecast, and temperatures both aloft and at the surface. Shifts in these could mean some significant changes to the forecast for many areas!

12/28 - 1:30am EST - Kentuckiana Winter Storm Number 2

Wednesday's winter storm didn't give much snow to folks in the Louisville area and instead confined heavy snow to areas of Southern Indiana. While differences in the models did exist over whether Louisville would get any accumulating snow or not, the overall situation was handled pretty well from a forecast standpoint. The highest snow report in NWS Louisville's coverage area was 7.2 inches in Washington County, IN while Louisville received a trace to a half inch.

The next storm on the heels of the last one is less than 24 hours away as a system arrives from the southwest and stays to our southeast as it moves through the region. This will start as some rain for the Louisville area but as colder air filters in we'll switch over to snow during the later evening hours. This exact time for switchover depends on how warm we get during the day tomorrow (lower 40's versus upper 30's makes a difference!) and how fast the cold air comes in. The 0z NAM that came in earlier tonight has about 3" for the city and after comparing this with other models I'm thinking this may be a number we'll see most commonly reported by Saturday morning in Louisville. Higher totals will be possible just a bit further north from Louisville.

But even as I say this there's a small fly in the ointment. The 3z RPM model is in and it has the possibility of 4-6" of snow just due east of the city and a few very small totals like this scattered throughout areas near the Ohio River. This suggests that totals closer to 4" might be more widespread than previously thought. You can click the RPM output on the left for a larger view. We've seen the trend of increasing snow totals today on the models and this run of the RPM just continues this. We'll need to watch for this trend tomorrow morning to see if other models catch on. Right now this isn't really a factor in my forecast since it's just one model. Below is my snow forecast map for the region. Realize that, like the last storm, a small shift in track or more/less cold air will change things for some folks drastically.

Also worth noting is that the Hyrdrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has us in a Slight Risk of a 4" snowfall (think of this like the Slight, Moderate, and High severe weather risks) while areas closer to Cincinnati are in a Moderate Risk. Expect to see Winter Weather Advisories being issued tomorrow for portions of Kentuckiana. There may also be a few Winter Storm Watches issued as well depending on if forecast amounts of 4" or more look to be more widespread. You can keep up with the latest on this storm tomorrow by following me on Twitter and Facebook. Good luck, snow lovers!

12/21 - 2pm - I'm Dreaming of a White (Day After) Christmas

How about that snow last night around Kentuckiana? Most places saw a dusting but areas in Southern Indiana near Orange County picked up about 3 inches since a snow band set up there for a few hours during the overnight. Here at my house in Southeast Louisville we picked up a dusting of snow that blew around a bit in the wind. Temperatures today aren't going to make it out of the mid 30's in Louisville today thanks to the cold air behind the front that passed through yesterday. Seems appropriate given that it's the first day of winter!

Temperatures will moderate for the weekend with southerly flow returning but an area of low pressure moving through will bring rain and even warmer temperatures for Christmas Eve. Booooo! Luckily Christmas Day isn't looking like a washout with just a few clouds and highs in the lower 40's. That's a different story further South in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia where rain will be setting up.

Now... onto the fun part. Over the past couple of days the forecast models have been jumping onto the idea of an area of low pressure moving from the Gulf states to the western side of the Appalachian Mountains the day after Christmas. This is concerning because this track favors a snow event for Kentuckiana and even some of West Tennessee. You need to be on the north and west side of these low pressure systems if you want to see some snow since that's where the cold air is confined to. The past few systems we've been on the south and east sides of the lows moving though so that has meant thunderstorms and warm weather lately.

The latest 3 runs of the GFS for this particular post-Christmas storm have been fairly consistent with the low track, which is good! The problem has been that there's been trouble determining how much cold air there will be to work with and how strong/large the low moving through will be. These issues have affected how much snow the Louisville area gets. The graphic on the left is a comparison of the last 3 runs of the GFS for December 26th. For entertainment purposes only, the 0z run had just shy of 8" of snow for Louisville, the 6z had about 3", and the 12z had around 2.5". It is still way, way too far out for specific totals and to worry about the cold air issues yet since things will change likely on the models between now and then. I will say though that the 6 and 12z runs seemed to have difficulty keeping the low as a single, compact system once it matured and instead wanted to go with an elongated large low that tries to interact with another low that develops east of the Appalachians. I've seen this kind of thing happen on the GFS earlier this year with the Nor'easters that we had. Eventually, based on what happened with these Nor'easters, these elongated lows should give way to more concentrated, compact lows on the GFS as we get closer to the actual event. This should help to clear up some of the murkiness with the cold air issues too.

The Euro has been fairly consistent with the track of the low as the GFS has been, but has also experienced a few issues of its own like the GFS. Yesterday's 12z run of the Euro had a blockbuster snow event in the Louisville area while the 0z last night backed off on that prospect thanks to, you guessed it, a more elongated low and trouble with cold air. I can't post the precipitation output from the Euro model since it's behind a paywall and copyrighted, but I can at least show you what the 0z run did with the low after it moved through. Lots and lots of cold air will be behind this system if you couldn't tell by the deep blues and purples on the map!

UPDATE 2:20pm - Today's 12z Euro model run is in and it has a blockbuster storm track for snow for us here in Kentuckiana and West Tennessee. That is quite a strong low in East Tennessee on the left-hand map compared to previous runs. Sheesh.

The CMC and the JMA, which are the Canadian and Japanese models, aren't worth showing here right now. The CMC has the storm running off the east coast and the JMA has a nice low track for some snow in Louisville. It's worth noting that this system might disappear all together on the models or make a radical change. It's still too far out for much certainty.

Also, West Tennessee may see snow from this storm should it take the track that we're seeing. It wouldn't be much snow but certainly more than an inch or so isn't out of the realm of possibility, especially in Northwest Tennessee. Once we get closer to time this will become a bit more clear.

The NAO, which is the North Atlantic Oscillation, frankly isn't agreeing that there will be support for this storm. A negative NAO means blocking near Greenland allows for cold air to flow into the Eastern US and stay locked in place. The current forecast is for a positive NAO during this time, but it has been flipping between negative and positive over the past couple of days. This storm doesn't have to have a negative NAO to happen, but it would help to have it for cold air support and for a storm track that rolls up to the northeast. This will, like the aforementioned models, sort itself out over the next few days.

 

Finally, NWS Louisville has been on board with this storm since yesterday. They're being cautious like they should be but mentioning at length the potential for this at 5 days out is something that they don't do very often. Here's their latest statement:

A much more significant weather system will arrive on the 26th. Both the 00z GFS/ECM and ensembles track a strong low pressure system just to the west of the Appalachian spine which may set us up for our first significant snow. If the low pressure system takes its current forecast track, precipitation would enter the area Wed morning with the bulk of precip occurring Wed during the day and then exiting late Wed night or Thurs morning.

Although there is still much uncertainty in the track of this weather system 6 days out, the possibility is there for significant snow based on the low track and anticipated thermal profiles. BUFKIT GFS showed 8 inches at SDF with a little more than 0.5 inch of qpf. The soundings denote a classic heavy snow sounding with subzero and deep isothermal layer super saturated. The synoptic features of interest are a 110 kt jet max entering a the base of a deepening trough.

For now will have 60% pops on the 26th with rain in the morning and then snow in the afternoon and Wed night. Bing Crosby`s I`m dreaming of a White Christmas may happen, just 24 hours later.

Stay tuned for upcoming forecast updates as this weather system may put a kink in holiday travel plans.

 

This will be a fun system to watch over the weekend. Hopefully there's some snow in our future!

 

12/11 - 10:30pm - Be Careful When Wishing for Snow... You Might Get it!

With all the warmth much of the eastern portion of the nation has been experiencing lately some folks are beginning to get antsy over whether we'll be able to fall into a more winter-like pattern in time for the holidays. The cold front that rolled through earlier this week has helped to assuage some of those fears as it brought much cooler temperatures and even some light snow/sleet to parts of Kentucky and Indiana.

So... What's next? First up is a system that will move through the region this weekend as a warm one. A low will travel from the Plains to Lake Michigan and keep the eastern half of the nation warm as it spreads rain from the Great Lakes to the South. This makes sense because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be going neutral during this time, which generally means that cold air won't be able to spill down into the Eastern US from Canada. The Arctic Oscillation will be negative to support cold air coming out of the north, but that doesn't matter too much for us when the NAO isn't negative as well.

The system behind this weekend's is the one that is drawing some concern. A low will be moving across the South during the day on Tuesday and potentially spread some snow to areas that are north of it. At this point anywhere from West Tennessee to the Louisville area is in a potential corridor for snow. This all depends on the exact track of the low and how much cold air it will be able to bring down from the north. This scenario is supported by the NAO and AO both going negative during this time. The GFS model takes the storm along the southern border of Tennessee right to the Carolinas. The ECMWF (European) model starts out with the low a little further south along the Mississippi River but has it exit off the coast in about the same location as the GFS. The low would then become a storm that would ride up to the Northeast just off the coast. With the previous system pulling up toward the Chicago area, this low will likely stay suppressed to the south. So... the broad, general nature of this low's track isn't in too much question. My preliminary (read: subject to change!) thinking is that this will be a rain to light snow situation for portions of Tennessee and Kentucky since cold air would plunge in as the system is exiting to the east. Accumulations would be very light to none.

But here's an issue. The snow cover over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest has expanded tremendously over the past week as a storm pummeled those areas with quite a bit of snow. We're now at 31.4% snow cover over the United States. Air moving from the north over that snow won't warm as quickly as it would over bare land and the computer models generally have a difficult time resolving that. With this snow cover, the air in place over us and the air coming down from the north may be a little cooler than the computer models think it will be at the moment. That could mean more snow from this system. We're still a week away from this event so while details are sketchy, it's now obvious that this is a system to watch. This likely won't be the only storm we'll have to contend with between now and the new year since a pattern is setting up that will allow cold air to sit close by to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while lows track through and just to the south of the region. There's hope for a white Christmas in the region but it will depend on whether we can get enough cold air and a storm to move through just before the 25th. It'll be fun to watch!

3/22 - 4:30pm - Heavy Rain is Gone, but Warm Temps Remain!

Heavy Rain

Did you get drenched? I think we all did. The rain over the past 24 hours has been tremendous, especially across Mississippi as inches and inches have fallen from the pesky system that has been slowly churning through the Plains and now the South. Check out the estimated rainfall map from today below to see what I mean (the totals for West Tennessee are underdone but you get the picture of who saw some tremendous rainfall earlier today!) Most of the rain is now east of West Tennessee and North Mississippi, but a few showers remain and will continue this evening.

More rain will fall tomorrow afternoon as another piece of energy from the same system rotates around the Mid-South. The area in red with the directional arrow coming from it is called a vorticity max. Usually the area where rain and storms develop is east of the vort max as it moves along. Tomorrow's rain won't be as heavy as today's by any stretch of the imagination and it will be more of a scattered nature than today's washout. Once this rain is all said and done by Saturday morning we should be left with a very nice weekend and temperatures warming back up through the upper 70's across West Tennessee and North Mississippi.

The Big Picture

Let's zoom out more and look at the system that's been causing all of this rain as a whole. What we have is an upper-level low in the Plains that is slowly moving eastward. An upper-level low like this one is basically a ball of cold-air that gets cut off from its northerly source because the jet stream kicks north leaves whatever is in the base of the former trough behind. It moves slowly because the jet stream, which usually drives big weather features, is absent from the process after the low gets cut-off. The satellite and radar images coming in from area where the low is are striking... you can see very well the rotation of the low pressure center, which makes it look like a land-based hurricane.

The jet stream being way up north is also why it's been so warm lately. In the winter the jet stream usually dips down from Canada and brings cold air to the USA. Areas north of the jet stream remain cold due to the influence of an arctic air mass while to the south of it there is usually a warm, moist air mass. This winter and now into this spring the jet stream has not really come down from Canada to the eastern half of the nation. The West has had it come down a few times though, which meant snow and cold temperatures for the Pacific Northwest and even down through California. The reason the jet stream stayed so far north is that La Nina (colder than usual ocean temperatures off the coast of Peru) remained pretty consistent throughout the season. In an El Nino pattern, the jet stream comes down to the US with a vengeance.

Record Warmth

The above-average temperatures from this pattern will persist for quite a while it looks like. A cursory glance at some of the long-range models shows that the jet stream will remain somewhere close to this northerly position for the foreseeable future. With that said, comparing this year and month to years past is incredible. This March so far has been the warmest on record in Jackson, TN and Tupelo, MS and the second warmest in Memphis. Jackson is running 10.6 degrees above average for this March. Comparing the year so far to years past, this is the warmest year so far in Memphis and Tupelo, and the second warmest so far in Jackson. These are remarkable numbers and we'll likely see more of these records flash by as the warmth continues. A running list of how this year's heat compares to previous records is available from NWS Memphis.

3/14 - 11:55pm EDT - Record-Breaking Warmth

The warm weather we've been seeing across the region hit record-breaking levels this afternoon. Here is a list of some broken temperature records today:

Jackson, TN: High 84° | Previous Record 80°

Memphis, TN: High 82° | Previous Record 80°

Chattanooga, TN: High 83° | Previous Record 81°

Louisville, KY: High 82° | Previous Record 80°

Paducah, KY: High 82° | Previous Record 78°
Evansville, IN: High 82° | Previous Record 77°

Indianapolis, IN: High 81° | Previous Record 79°

Many other cities in came close to breaking records, especially in Alabama and Middle Tennessee. The ridge over the Eastern US that's funneling all the remarkably unseasonable temperatures into the area will stay put through the weekend, but a few shortwave disturbances aloft will bring storm chances to much of West Tennessee, North Mississippi, and even into Central Kentucky tomorrow and Friday. These storms will be more organized than the spotty ones that developed in eastern portions of West Tennessee and even up through Western Kentucky this afternoon. The crazy-warm temperatures are going to last at least another full week as this strong ridge stays put, so I think to say that spring (or even summer) has sprung before winter officially ended!

2/8 - 4pm - A Sunny Winter's Day in North Mississippi

How about that warm sunshine out there today? We still have a layer of thin clouds north of Tupelo and over the Delta right now, but south of there in the Golden Triangle we've cleared things out for the most part and temperatures got well into the 50's this afternoon as expected. A few of these clouds may move in to Starkville tonight, but that won't stop our low temperatures from bottoming out around the freezing mark.

High pressure will continue its eastward march into the eastern half of the nation for tomorrow, meaning a continuation of the nice weather we've had today. Tomorrow's highs may be a few degrees lower as cooler air continues to work its way in from the north, but most locations should clear 50 degrees. Even though some of the computer models have backed off on this a bit, our next front moving through on Friday night into Saturday could bring us a few showers on Friday night. The bigger story with this is the plume of cold air behind this front we'll see. It's possible that highs may not get out of the 40's this weekend, so a little taste of the winter we've missed so far in Starkville will come our way for Saturday and Sunday. Next week looks warmer again and we may even breach 60 degrees by Tuesday! Check out the video for your Mississippi State forecast:

11/28 - 2:45pm - An Early Shot of Winter Weather

A complicated upper-level low is making for some difficult forecasting over the next 24 hours as it brings the first real chance of snow to the South this season. This upper-level low is basically a big bubble of cold air aloft that has been orphaned from a bigger system that has since moved away from the region. Since we still have showers in the area, this cold air will help to turn those into snow by late tonight in areas near Starkville and northward. Since temperatures at the surface here in Starkville won't make it above 34 or so, any brief period of snow we see will not stick to the ground. I do think there could be a complete changeover to snow here in Starkville tomorrow morning around 8 or 9am, but this is highly dependent upon how well the computer models handle this system. Further north near Tupelo, Memphis, and Jackson, TN there will be enough cold air to get the snow on the ground when it falls, but the vast amount of warm rain we've had lately has kept the ground warm and moist, so snow accumulations won't stick around for long. Travel hazards won't be a huge deal since the roads are still warm, but it's a good idea to keep a look out for slick spots where temperatures dip below freezing tonight. Click on the SREF model snow output to the right... I think it has the most reasonable estimate on who will get accumulating snow tonight.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for areas from Tupelo to McNairy County, TN until 6am tomorrow since heavier snow could result in accumulations of 3 inches or more. The Winter Weather Advisory around the periphery of the Watch is for wet snow accumulations that could total around 1 to 3 inches. The snow should end by late morning tomorrow as it converts back to rain showers and then the precipitation will clear the area completely by around noon or so.

Check out my video below for a complete look at this week's forecast in Starkville and more details about the snow that's headed our way:

This evening at 6pm is the annual Starkville Christmas Parade. I'll be doing a short weather segment for the parade broadcast on WOBV 5 in Starkville. This event will also be streamed live on the web, so be sure to check out http://parade.wobv5.com/ tonight at 6pm CST to see my forecast and enjoy the parade!

2/10 - 1:30pm - Another Snowstorm in North Mississippi

Snow is not common in Mississippi. Really, I'm telling you it's not. That's a hard thing to believe after receiving our second heavy snowfall of the season last night here in Starkville and across the state. Locally we received 4-5" and areas to our north and west closer to Oxford and the Delta region saw amounts near 6". I'll admit that my forecast for areas east of Greenwood, MS was a bust. I settled on 2-3" a couple days ago and stuck with it based on the computer models. Even then, a lot of computer models coming in were suggesting amounts way below this and it was tough not to lower the forecast. The fact of the matter is that most forecasters, both human and computer, overestimated the amount of weakening in this storm as it moved east and it led to quite a surprise. Something that really helped up the totals locally was a quick drop in temperature to the freezing mark before 4pm. Mississippi State University decided to call off classes at the last minute this morning after previously stating they would open at 11am. Good thing... the roads and sidewalks even at 11:30am this morning weren't good at all and temperatures are still in the upper 20's at this hour. I doubt we'll get above freezing today. Check out my video compilation of the snow on campus below and flip through the slideshow below that (there are some fantastic panoramas in there!):

2/8 - 5pm - MSU Video / North Mississippi Snow

Wintry weather is making a comeback in North Mississippi tomorrow, and it appears an accumulating snow will be likely as we head into tomorrow evening. The computer forecast models have had a somewhat difficult time trying to pinpoint accumulations, but right now I'm seeing evidence pointing to a 2-3" snow accumulation in Starkville by early Thursday morning. Areas to our west in the Delta region could see up to 6" of snow, so this system is certainly packing some decent moisture. Thursday onwards looks dry and clear, and we'll slowly warm things up as we head into the weekend. Check out the video below for all the details:

1/7 - 8:15pm - Big Changes to Southern Winter Storm!

A day makes quite a difference when it comes to winter storm forecasting, and boy do we have some changes in the forecast to talk about. The major US-based computer models, the GFS and NAM, have both trended colder and wetter in today's runs compared to yesterday. Instead of talking about ice problems in Starkville and the Golden Triangle, we're now talking heavy snow. Jackson, TN has also seen a bump in snow totals on the models, with 2-4" now possible in the Hub City.

Jackson, TN
While no Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the Jackson area, snow totals could reach 2-4" by Monday midday. While this won't be a very heavy snowfall, it'll certainly cause travel problems across West Tennessee. The snow totals will increase as you head toward the Mississippi border, where up to 5 inches is possible. As you'll see in the graphic to the right, Winter Storm Watches begin with the Tennessee counties bordering Mississippi and go all the way south to just north of the Gulf Coast. I saw earlier this evening that brine has been applied to many roads across West Tennessee and that's certainly good news for travelers in the region on Sunday into Monday. I'll have the latest forecast for Jackson and West Tennessee tomorrow morning at 6am on WBBJ ABC 7's Good Morning West Tennessee!

Here's what the National Weather Service in Memphis has to say about this system:

GIVEN ALL OF THIS...IT SEEMS BEST TO CONTINUE WITH AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF JONESBORO TO PARIS...3 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...AND 5 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DESPITE SOME HIGHER QPF SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO...WILL NOT PUSH TOTALS ABOVE 8 INCHES FOR NOW. LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THESE TOTALS AS HOPEFULLY BETTER MODEL OUTPUT BECOMES AVAILABLE.

Starkville, MS
The shift from a couple inches of snow with ice accumulations to heavy snow accumulations of 4-8" in Starkville by Monday morning on the computer models has been remarkable today. Colder temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere and increased precipitation totals have really bumped up the snow totals across the Golden Triangle and I think this is a much better solution than an ice storm in the area. Unfortunately, that risk has shifted to Central Mississippi just south of Macon, MS and power outages and tree damage could be an issue down there. The most ambitious computer model today has been the 18z NAM run (on left), which gave Starkville over 9 inches of snow. I don't think we'll get quite that much snow, but the National Weather Service's 4-8" forecast looks on-par with what I'm thinking at this point. This will be the largest snow storm in quite a few years should this pan out, so get ready for some significant travel issues in North and Central Mississippi on Sunday night and Monday. I'll keep watch on the latest model runs and post tomorrow with the latest updates!

Here's what the National Weather Service in Jackson, MS says about Mississippi's winter weather chances:

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF OUTPUT GENERALLY SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET AND A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...ALONG AND N OF A BASTROP LA TO MACON LINE. GIVEN THE FORECAST QPF...THIS WOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA. ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR...A FULL WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. DEPENDING ON WHAT THE DOMINANT PCPN TYPE ENDS UP BEING...THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SLEET...OR A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF GLAZE. ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...PRECIP LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW/SLEET THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN WITH SOME WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL BE UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM SUN TO 6 AM MON PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

Don't forget that you can follow my up-to-the minute weather updates on my Facebook and Twitter accounts.

1/6 - 11pm - Winter Storm in the South This Weekend?

You've probably heard it by now, but it bears stating again: A winter storm is going to impact the South this weekend. Even though we're less than four days away from the event, details are still relatively sketchy because of computer model inconsistencies. In this post I'll focus on Starkville, MS and Jackson, TN, two areas that are less than a couple hundred miles apart but could see wildly different winter weather scenarios.


Jackson, TN
The winter storm this weekend will be an all-snow event for Jackson and all of West Tennessee. The most current runs of the GFS model are indicating around two inches of snow accumulation by Monday afternoon in the region. The NAM model only goes out to 84 hours, so only accumulations through Monday morning were output on the 0z run, which stands now at around two inches as well. Since precipitation amounts will increase as you go southward and the exact track of this storm hasn't been determined, there's definitely room for more snow accumulation than what is on the current batch of computer models.


Starkville, MS/Mississippi State University

The forecast for Starkville is exponentially more difficult than areas to our north because the Golden Triangle could very well be the battleground between snow, freezing rain, and rain. The 18z GFS model puts a couple inches of snow on the ground here, but the bigger story is the amount of freezing rain that could accumulate. The graphic to the right is the accumulated freezing rain output from the GFS, which shows nearly a half inch of ice accumulation in Starkville by Monday morning. Just a couple counties to our north, snow accumulations could top four inches and ice may not be as much of an issue. Earlier runs of the GFS showed more snow for Starkville with ice becoming more of a problem just to our south. That's just one model though. The NAM, which as I said before does not cover the whole event period yet, seemed to go toward a warmer solution on the 0z run with a bit of snow late Sunday night and plain rain in town on Monday morning (left image). I'd give the NAM a few runs to get things sorted out because lately it seems to have had problems with storms that occur near the very end of it's forecast period. Areas near Tupelo could be the bulls-eye for heavy snow, so I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports of amounts over five inches up there early on Monday.

Bottom line: Significant amounts of snow/sleet and freezing rain are possible in Starkville by Monday morning and we'll need to fine-tune the forecast to figure out which mode of precipitation will be more dominant. Any slight track changes or differences in the strength of the low that will pass to our south will determine what kind of frozen precipitation falls where. The good news is that I think temperatures during the day on Monday will get above freezing, so the mess on the roads during the morning should get better throughout the afternoon.

If you're near Jackson, TN this weekend, be sure to tune in to ABC 7 on Saturday morning at 6am for my latest snow forecast. Should be an interesting few days ahead!

1/2 - 12:45am - Happy New Year!

Hope that everyone had an exceptional New Year's Day and that it was a nice kickoff to a great year ahead! I've been away from the blog for awhile to enjoy the holidays and take a vacation to the Caribbean, but it's just about time for things to get back to normal. I'll be heading back to Starkville, MS on Monday to start the spring semester at Mississippi State and I'll be back at work next Saturday morning at WBBJ in Jackson. From the excitement of the multiple early Ohio Valley winter storms to getting my wisdom teeth taken out (well, maybe not that), it's been a great winter break in Louisville.

Many of you I'm sure have been hearing about the aftermath from the worst severe weather outbreak on New Year's Day and Eve in recorded history. Seven fatalities have occurred due to tornadoes and strong winds that scraped across the Midwest and South, affecting states like Arkansas, Illinois, Missouri, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The state of Mississippi was especially hard hit as a few significant tornadoes touched down in Jackson and portions of Central Mississippi. Three tornadoes have been confirmed in Mississippi so far, including one that crossed onto the property of Jackson International Airport. The National Weather Service is still conducting damage surveys, so this list of confirmed tornadoes will likely grow. Check out the details from the surveys of the three confirmed Mississippi tornadoes on the NWS Jackson website. (Picture on right is a strong velocity couplet indicating intense rotation on radar near Jackson, MS on Friday)

The weather looks pretty calm for the next few days as high pressure regains control of things in the Southeast. There could be some precipitation in the region on Wednesday and Thursday, but chances aren't looking good at this point. If two areas of low pressure phase with one another as they pass over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, expect light snow in Indiana and rain all the way from the Ohio River to the Mississippi Gulf Coast. If they remain separate systems, any precipitation would likely stay suppressed in South Mississippi. Right now I think they will remain separate systems, meaning Kentucky and Tennessee will remain dry as we head through the middle part of the week. Regardless of whether these lows phase or not, light snow will be possible in Indiana and Kentucky next weekend as the low in the Great Lakes moves east and spreads down areas of light snowfall from the north.

Temperatures will be on their way back below normal after next weekend across much of the country and we'll have to watch for snow chances in Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe even Mississippi/Alabama. We'll certainly have the cold air in place, but will the storms cooperate? That's the fun of meteorology!

12/16 - 2:30pm - Ice Photos

It seems we received some of the worst ice accumulations in Kentuckiana here at my house in Southeast Louisville. Check out this slideshow for some pictures of the impressive ice accumulations that I took earlier this afternoon:



It took 30 minutes to get a minivan out of our driveway using sand. Trying to walk on any of this ice isn't a good idea. Glad that I only fell once! It should be noted that all the major roads in Louisville are pretty good right now, but those streets that have not been treated are extremely dangerous. Use caution if you have to be out today.

I'll be heading out to on vacation to Florida tomorrow so there won't be any blog posts for about a week. I should be back just before Christmas, so I'll be sure to post if any wintry weather heads toward Louisville after that point. It appears that things will quiet down for a short while, so it's certainly a good time to take a break!

12/16 - 11:30am - Ice Accumulation Numbers

The temperature in Louisville got up to 32 at around 8am this morning, but we're now back down to 29 degrees. That's not good news at all because the accumulated ice simply won't melt with temperatures below freezing and cloud cover. Overall, Louisville did get around 0.5" of ice in places as expected, but the expected 1-2" of snow simply did not happen due to warm air advection aloft that traveled north quicker than expected. Here are some of the ice accumulation totals from the NWS in Louisville:

...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 9 AM EST...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED BY AMOUNT AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY
THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

*************************ICE ACCUMULATIONS**********************

ACCUM  LOCATION             ST   COUNTY               TIME
-----  --------             --   ------               ----

0.5"   VALLEY STATION       KY  JEFFERSON           500 AM EST
0.5"   ENGLISH              IN  CRAWFORD            900 AM EST
0.3"   BROWNSVILLE          KY  EDMONSON            200 AM EST
0.3"   CASEY                KY  BUTLER              200 AM EST
0.3"   TELL CITY            IN  PERRY               900 AM EST
0.3"   ANCHORAGE            KY  JEFFERSON           900 AM EST
0.3"   DOE VALLEY           KY  MEADE               900 AM EST
0.25"  HOLLAND              IN  DUBOIS              600 AM EST
0.25"  FRANKFORT            KY  FRANKLIN            645 AM EST
0.25"  GEORGETOWN           KY  SCOTT               730 AM EST
0.25"  ELIZABETHTOWN        KY  HARDIN              745 AM EST
0.25"  CORYDON              IN  HARRISON            705 AM EST
0.25"  SALEM                IN  WASHINGTON          600 AM EST
0.2"   NWS LOUISVILLE       KY  JEFFERSON           900 AM EST
0.2"   FERDINAND            IN  DUBOIS              530 AM EST
0.2"   PORTERSVILLE         IN  DUBOIS              530 AM EST
0.1    LEITCHFIELD          KY  GRAYSON             715 AM EST
0.1"   BOWLING GREEN        KY  WARREN                MIDNIGHT

I'll post some more photos of the ice later on today. Some of those icicles out there are pretty big! I think Louisville will stay dry for the rest of the day but areas near Lexington will receive just a little more freezing rain.

12/14 - 1pm - Winter Storm WATCH for Louisville

A Winter Storm WATCH has been issued by the National Weather Service for Louisville and surrounding areas until Thursday afternoon. An area of low pressure passing to our south will give us a quick-hitting winter storm, meaning we'll only see its effects in Kentuckiana from late Wednesday into midday Thursday. There's talk at the NWS of issuing an Ice Storm Warning for portions of Central and North Central Kentucky if the freezing rain accumulations appear that they'll get near a quarter of an inch.

Storm Timing

Wednesday morning/midday: All Clear

Wednesday afternoon/evening: Light snow/sleet begins in the west and spreads toward Louisville as snow. Under an inch of accumulation expected.

Early Thursday morning: Snow switches over to sleet and freezing rain, becoming mostly freezing rain as the morning wears on. The morning commute will be a royal mess in Louisville. Based on the forecast models and guidance I'm seeing right now, most schools should be closed or delayed on Thursday due to the treacherous driving conditions on Thursday morning. Areas north of Scottsburg, IN should have snow throughout the entire event and I would not rule out a couple inches of accumulation up that way.

Thursday afternoon: Near and south of the Ohio River should see freezing rain end from west to east in the early afternoon hours. There could be a few snowflakes as temperatures aloft cool down on the west side of the low. Again, Southern Indiana from Scottsburg northward should stay with snow and possibly a little sleet as this system pulls out of the area.

---

The devil is in the details with this storm. How much freezing rain will accumulate in North Central Kentucky? Right now I'm thinking Louisville will see just under a quarter inch of ice accumulation whereas areas near Elizabethtown, Fort Knox, and Bardstown could pick up about a quarter of an inch. The GFS model is being conservative with precipitation amounts (0.27" liquid) whereas the NAM is pumping more into the area (0.56" liquid). I'm willing to bet we'll see something in between those numbers here in Louisville, some of that liquid falling as snow/sleet while the rest falls as freezing rain. Check out the annotated BUFKIT sounding from the NAM model at 4am on Thursday above (click to make it larger). You'll notice that temperatures between 4000 and 8000ft will be above freezing, meaning the snow will melt to rain while it's falling through that layer of air. The lower 4000ft or so of the atmosphere will be below freezing and that already thawed liquid rain will likely freeze when it hits the surface. There will likely be a period of sleet in Louisville as we transition from snow to freezing rain on Thursday morning. Like I said yesterday, only a few miles will make a big difference. We still have a decent snow pack in Louisville, so I do expect temperatures to stay below freezing here at the surface throughout Thursday except for some areas downtown where they may reach 33 degrees. Even though we're only about 36 hours away from this event, there's still wiggle room for all of this. If temperatures aloft aren't as warm as forecast, we'll see mostly snow in Louisville and the freezing rain risk would shift southward. On the flip side, temperatures at the surface could also nudge a couple degrees higher than expected (unlikely due to snow cover in my opinion) and decrease the ice problems on Thursday morning.

We'll see how this one plays out. The NWS in Louisville will upgrade the Winter Storm WATCH to either a warning or Ice Storm Warning at some point later today and I'll post the details of that on Twitter and Facebook immediately. Should any significant changes occur in the forecast, I'll post those on the blog.

3/19 - 10:15am - First Day of Spring is Tomorrow!

It's been an enjoyable spring break back home in Louisville and the weather up here is just gorgeous! With fairly strong high pressure in place, I could see it easily getting to 70 degrees or higher today around here.

The next big system to impact the eastern half of the nation is making its way through the Plains as we speak. Winter Storm Watches have been issued from Oklahoma to Missouri and some places could pick up nearly a foot of snow. Below is the highlighted risk for four or more inches of snow tomorrow:

All this talk of snow and the first day of spring is tomorrow? In a period of El Nino (warm sea temperatures just west of South America) like the one we've been experiencing this winter, coupled with a very negative Arctic Oscillation as we've seen, it's quite typical for winter storms to track further south and it seems that El Nino will stick around for the spring as it ever so slowly weakens.

What effect will El Nino have on the spring severe weather season you ask? Based on historical El Nino data, the spring after a fairly strong El Nino winter features more tornadoes and severe weather. This year will be similar to 1995, 1998, 2003, and 2007. We all remember 2007... when a deadly EF5 tornado destroyed Greensburg, Kansas. This is not to say that we're guaranteed to see another EF5 this year, but the potential is higher than last year for sure.

With spring in the air and El Nino sticking around, it's almost time for my annual storm chasing trip in the Great Plains! I'll be out there from May 8th to June 5th and I'm sure it's going to be a great month out there. I'll have blog posts, HD video clips, Twitter/Facebook updates, a live video stream from stormchasertv.com and more as we continue on our quest to find severe weather.

2/14 - 2:30pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast... More Snow?

Happy Valentine's Day! It looks like we have another shot at some snow overnight tonight and into the early morning hours of tomorrow. All of North Mississippi is under a Winter Weather Advisory tonight and tomorrow as 1 to 2 inches of snow falls across the region after transitioning from a bit of rain. Another hazard with this system is the possibility for ice on the roads tomorrow morning as the wet roads flash freeze in temperatures around the mid 20's. Keep this in mind tomorrow as you're making your morning commute. The rest of the week should be fairly dry with warmer weather by Thursday. Rain is in the forecast for next weekend.


A lengthy winter storm is getting ready to affect Northern Kentucky and Southern Indiana this evening, including the Louisville area. From tonight through Wednesday, the folks back home could pick up over a half a foot of snow. Louisville has already broken their seasonal average snow total, so this storm will only add to an above-average season. Some areas up there could pick up a foot of snow!

1/31 - 2:30pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast

Our weather pattern is calming down after a few days of rain and even snow flurries. We should start out the week dry, with intermittent clouds here and there until Wednesday evening. Rain should overspread the area early Thursday and continue through Friday. The good news is that the rain will be out of here just before the start of the weekend! Temperatures should range between the mid 40's and lower 50's for highs this week.


Groundhog Day is on Tuesday, so we'll have to see what Punxsutawney Phil says about the coming weeks of winter! Regardless of what Mr. Phil says, I think we're in for a couple more shots of cold air and maybe some snow. The first of these cold air/snow possibilities will take place around Wednesday of next week, so keep an eye out for the latest forecast.