6/26 - 12am - Tropical Depression ONE

The first tropical depression of the season has formed in the Atlantic, meaning we could very soon have our first named storm of the year, Alex. Tropical Depression ONE is slated to hit the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow night before tracking northward. There's some debate over whether the storm will take a westward or eastward turn after getting north of the Yucatan, but current models are favoring the westward solution that takes it into Mexico instead of the Gulf Coast. We'll see how this track develops over the next 48 hours, but right now it looks like the United States will miss the brunt of the storm. Let's hope it stays that way! To the left is the current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center and to the right is a compilation of computer model forecast tracks called a "spaghetti" chart.

It's been a hot start to the summer across Kentuckiana, but it appears there will be a break from the heat as a cold front passes through the region on Monday. Not only will we see rain chances around Louisville on Sunday and Monday, but we'll also see temperatures drop into the 80's for the rest of the week. Until then, temperatures in the mid 90's and heat index values above 100 will persist.

Don't forget to watch my 2010 storm chasing documentary in the blog post below. You can also watch a shorter version of it on YouTube.

8/30 - 12:30pm - MSU Forecast, Watching the Tropics

Here's your weekly Mississippi State University forecast:


Notice how we might not even break 90 this week because of the cold front that came through yesterday. The rain we're having now should stop by the mid afternoon and sunny skies should take over for most of the week.

We've had a bit of a break in storm formation in the tropics over the past couple of days, but it looks like that will change. A tropical wave east of the Caribbean organized itself overnight and is set to become a tropical depression if it keeps organizing:


Just yesterday this wave looked very disorganized and didn't look like it had potential to strengthen. We'll have to really watch this one, especially because of its proximity to the Caribbean Sea.

10/14 - 4:30pm - Rain Chances, TS Omar

I was surprised to see that the NAM took our rain chances and ran with them, so it looks like we'll have a pretty good chance of rain on late Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS is not as aggressive, but nevertheless is a little more optimistic than yesterday. The HPC is calling for around a quarter of an inch of rain, so not too much rain for the places that still need it. Say goodbye to the 80 degree weather after tomorrow!

Tropical Storm Omar has just been named, south of Puerto Rico. It will become a hurricane, but it will only affect the Caribbean as a weak hurricane. The forecast track takes it over the Mid-Atlantic, so no big problems after it exits the Caribbean:



Tropical Depression 16 has formed south of the Yucatan Peninsula (the area I talked about yesterday), but it expected to quickly head west into Mexico as a tropical storm.

10/13 - 8pm - Here Comes the Cool Down!

More pleasant weather is on the way for tomorrow, with some clouds and 85 degrees. A small chance of rain creeps into the forecast for what now looks like Wednesday through Friday, with highs in the 60's by Friday after a gradual cool-down. With high pressure becoming the dominant feature, this weekend should be sunny with highs in the upper 60's.

Tropical Depression Nana is spinning in the Atlantic with winds at 35mph. Its not expected to affect land and will most likely die out this week. An area of disturbed weather south of Cuba could become a tropical depression within the next couple of days and head northward. We'll keep an eye on that in case it wants to become a late-season storm. Hurricane season officially ends November 30th.

9/1 - 4pm - Gustav Weakens, Levees Hold, More Storms to Come

Gustav has weakened to a Category 1 with winds pushing up to 90mph right now. There are mass power outages in the Louisiana/Mississippi area, including New Orleans. That's to be expected with the winds that came through. Here's some great news: the levees are holding in New Orleans. Even though they are being over topped by the storm surge, they are at least not failing and holding most of the water back. There has been some flooding in the Industrial Canal area of New Orleans, but that seems to be an isolated case at this point. The levees are holding in that area, but they're unfinished and water is sloshing over them. Let's hope that the levees hold for the remainder of this storm, especially with the Mississippi River now being affected.

The track from the NHC brings the remains of Gustav into Oklahoma now instead of parking it in Texas. This raises the possibility for some drenching rains here, especially if this meets up with a cold front expected to stall out over us early this weekend.

Now, here's some bad news. We're going to add two names to the family of storms in the Gulf and Atlantic. Hurricane Hanna was upgraded from a tropical storm this morning and Tropical Depression 9, soon to be Tropical Storm Ike, is on it's way. Hanna is going to impact North or South Carolina this weekend and Ike is going to try to aim for the Bahamas as a hurricane by this weekend as well. I'll get maps and models up on those tomorrow after Gustav stops causing such a stir.