Saturday, March 31, 2007

3/31 - 4pm - New Forecast Video

This new video outlines our severe weather chances for the next few days.

3/31 - 12:30pm - Severe Risk is Shooting Up!

The minute I logged on to the SPC's website, I saw the graphic that made my day:

I realized that the severe threat was coming for Tuesday, but this was kind of a surprise to see the SPC really hammer it to the Louisville area. We'll have to see what they categorize us as (slight, moderate, heavy risk) tomorrow in the next forecast. From my view, the CAPE model is VERY impressive for this region of the country, so the instability and vertical shear are there. I think the best risk is just west of us in Illinois, but our risk is still very high I think.

I'll have a video with all the charts out later this afternoon...

Thursday, March 29, 2007

3/29 - 8:30pm - Tornadoes Are Messing With Texas!

Oh what a mess they have in Texas. I haven't seen this kind of tornado outbreak happen so early before. There were 65 tornadoes yesterday. Yes that is 65!

I can't begin to imagine the headache those folks are experiencing out there. When we get one tornado in the vicinity we (the media and residents) go nuts. Imagine if we had a few dozen in a couple hours!

Here at home we really cooled it off today. I didn't see a thermometer get above 69 today, which is chilly compared to the nice weather we've had in the past couple weeks. I'm sorry to say that we are on our way to being on the other side of the nice weather parabola. We'll see 50's in here by week's end.

I've seen a little instability in here for Saturday and have heard about some for Tuesday, but so far I have not seen any organized severe weather parameters come near Louisville in the models. There could be some unexpected severe weather within the next few days due to the tipsy weather pattern we're in. Severe weather fans, be patient, we heat up in May for our fun.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

3/28 - 7:30pm - Severe Weather Can't Make Up Mind...

Oh I am just confused as all get out at the moment. Yesterday there were indications that a large midwest severe weather outbreak would lend some energy for a risk here on Saturday. Alas, the CAPE model sucked a ton of that energy away from us today and the SPC adjusted their outlooks correspondingly. Darn, I wanted some video of the storm to show on my forecast video...

Of course it is very difficult to forecast severe weather terribly far out so this could change. I think we're close enough though that the CAPE and CIN won't change their minds too much between now and Saturday.

This morning was quite a show though! I was awakened at 12:30am to a huge clap of thunder that nearly bounced me out of my bed. Once I woke up at 5:40am (I know - it's early) for school I saw even more lightning. The most hilarious part was changing buses this morning; it down-poured the minute all the kids started switching buses. I was tempted to tell people to put down their big metal umbrellas too. With the intense frequency of the lightning I was sure that someone was going to become deep-fried due to their umbrella. Luckily that didn't play out.

Oh yeah, on top of all this crazy weather it's warm too! We could reach 80 again by the early part of next week. We're on borrowed time though as a large cool-down is in store. Highs after mid-next week will be in the 40's and 50's. Enjoy it while you can!

Monday, March 26, 2007

3/26 - 9:45pm - SPC is Making Me Look Bad!

Ha ha ha... I feel like I'm being joked on by someone (punk'd in today's terminology). Just a day after I put out a forecast video update saying, "any severe storms should break up over the Mississippi River," the SPC puts this out:

So yes, there is a severe risk in here for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. I think our best chance is late Thursday night, although the instability on Wednesday is pretty good too. Any limiting factors (CIN model) are very low at this point for these days. Our severe risk won't be as significant as the risk just west of the MS. River, but nevertheless I think we have a risk here. I think the SPC was waiting for the new CAPE models (measures atmospheric instability) to come out for the end of the week before they made their final judgment. So keep your eyes open!

Friday, March 23, 2007

3/23 - 8:30pm - Getting Hot Hot Hot!

It's our turn for some 80 degree weather! Tomorrow will be in the upper 70's, but Sunday is the beginning of our 80 degree jaunt. On Saturday we will start to get a nice high pressure system in here (ridge) that will bring nice southerly winds to our area.

Just to give you some perspective here, it will be the same temperature (81) on Sunday here as it is in Pensacola, Florida. That shows you how uniform this ridge is here.

Now we start to talk about the threat (or lack thereof in the short term) of severe weather. For the weekend and the greater portion of next week, we will be severe weather free thanks to the stability of this ridge. Late next week is when things will get interesting:

Remember that this is a rough outline for severe weather and that things change quickly due to forecasting difficulties. The GFS has the storm system weakening a bit before reaching the Louisville area, but that is nearly a week out. We don't even have instability charts in for this thing yet so it is very difficult to tell. Also, this system would hit us on the 30th, which is not mentioned above and thus may be added later.

This system is going to harbor some cooler air with it and will correspondingly affect our weather. The GFS is hinting at a cold snap during the beginning tof April, but I reiterate that this is changeable. Our warm spell wasn't accurately (meaning a forecast with 80's in it) forecasted until a couple days ago. Over the past few weeks I've noticed that cold spells have jumped on and off on the GFS model, so I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the cold weather was dampened or erased off the map all together.

Anyway, for now things are pristine with the weather. I hope we can say the same thing next weekend!

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

3/21 - 8pm - It's Barbeque Time!

The temperature soared to 75 degrees at my house today. It is the middle of March, it's supposed to be in the mid 60's. I'm tickled to death!

There were indications a few days ago that this warming trend would end in the beginning of next week. Scratch that! Let's try March 31st for an end date to this warming trend. At this time, a closed off low will scream through here and cool things down into the 40's for highs for a day or so. After about April 5th (-ish), we should be nearly seasonal on temperatures again. This is around the low to mid 60's.

A moderate chance for storms (far from severe) exists from Thursday to Saturday. These would be scattered storms with possibly a few small lines mixed in. The SPC has us in a 5% risk for severe weather, which is peanuts compared to what we've had already this year. In other words, don't let these storms scare you into canceling anything.

Oh yeah, according to the recent GFS run, I think we have a run at some 80 degree weather for next week. The 564 line goes above us as the heat builds on the 28th and 29th. Does this mean 80's? I think it does...

By the way, I don't have a very good way of forecasting temperatures yet. I've got moisture down with the GFS, NAM, etc., but I am in the process of finding a good way to forecast temperatures. I've been sort of winging it with the isobar lines on the GFS/NAM and looking at the NWS and others' forecasts. Again, it just shows that a real meteorologist needs a degree in meteorology! (I hope to have mine in a few years...)

Monday, March 19, 2007

3/19 - 8:30pm - Oops, I busted that one...

Well there is no threat for severe weather on Saturday. I just looked at the Cape model, and it gladly laughed to my face. So that was a void discussion on yesterday's post. That's the business folks, you win some and you lose some...

Boy, was I caught off guard today. I was eating dinner at a restaurant when the satellite TV went out on the televisions throughout the building. Since that only happens in heavy rain and snow, I consulted the radar on my cell phone. Sure enough, an isolated heavy rain system was going to plunge on through. It rained really really hard for 10 mins and then the sun came out. The irony in all of this is that the rain was supposed to be all out of here by early afternoon, but some unexpected trailer storms formed behind it. Just goes to show that even weather-geeks are caught off guard.

On a lighter note, let's fire up the grill! Starting Wednesday we are in the 70's! This will last until probably early/mid next week, but even after that I don't think we'll see anything below the 50's. We could see some popcorn storms on Wednesday and Sunday. Wednesday has no instability, so no problem there. Sunday hasn't been looked at yet by the SPC, but I'm willing to say no severe weather here too based on the stable pattern we're going to start. Here comes the sun!

Sunday, March 18, 2007

3/18 - 9am - Les orages viennent!!!

(The title is "The storms are coming!!!")

Ah, now I see a chance for some "real" thunderstorms. Saturday is the day, with some decent moisture too. I just peeked at the SPC's long range outlook and they said they can't predict anything past Thursday because "predictability is too low".

I then flipped my attention to the 6z GFS, which showed some thin bands of moisture screaming through here on Saturday. Rule of thumb: whenever you see small bands of moderate to heavy moisture on the GFS, those are probably squall lines or just normal lines of thunderstorms. This is because lines of violent storms tend to be very thin, so they don't cover a very large area in a day. This can be different though if the storms are moving at 60 mph, they can then cover a pretty good swath of land before they collapse and die out.

So anyway, we'll have to see if the SPC gets their act together and makes a prediction for Saturday. I think they see a pretty good outbreak on the way; the SPC just doesn't want to issue a forecast yet because it's too far out to tell where this outbreak will play out.

Saturday, March 17, 2007

3/17 - 1pm - Something Caught My Eye...

I was taking a look at the most recent GFS model and found that March 28th looks to be a very turbulent day. It hints at temperatures in the 70's on the 27th, but then a nasty closed low comes over and transforms us to the 40's or 50's.

Not to mention that there is a lot of moisture coming with this thing. With this kind of front coming through with these kinds of temperatures converging, I see us having a good run for some nasty storms in a couple weeks.

As for now, we are very cold with 39 degrees, which should transform to 46 today. It will get progressively warmer this week, with highs in the 70's by next weekend. We should level off in the mid to upper 60's for next week though. So really, today is the last bitter cold day until after the 28th.

I will try to get a forecast and video forecast out today, but there is a Louisville 2nd round NCAA game on so I might have to wait until tomorrow. Think warm thoughts!

Friday, March 16, 2007

3/16 - 8pm - Warm Air En Route!!!

Hold on for just a couple more days, the cold weather is on its way out! Our warm up will start kicking into high gear on Monday as we approach 60 degrees. Middle 70's will be here by the end of next week.

Who shall be blamed in this case of cold air? A nasty Northeast winter storm is the culprit, which just blindsided us with some clouds. This really made for some nasty conditions in Boston, where an NBC News reporter was outside having trouble just speaking on the air at the peak of the snowstorm.

We will have showers on Monday and Tuesday, with storms possible sometime this weekend or early next week. This looks like the official start of the "unpredictable pop up Spring thunderstorm " season. Anytime you see temperatures in the 70's or above with a 20-40 percent chance of storms, you can bet those will be of the pop up nature.

Come on 70's!

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

3/14 - 8pm - Update on Supercell...

Whew! We had a small supercell in Breckenridge County that was exhibiting hook echoing just a few minutes ago. It seems to have lost its energy now, but is still a rainmaker. If it were a tad warmer and a couple hours prior to now, this could have become a tornado. Luckily, it ran out of energy before it could develop one.

The NWS has called off the Severe Thunderstorm Warning for now...

3/14 - 7:45pm - The Sound of Thunder...

I heard some real live thunder today! It was nice to return to the stormy spring pattern I've been longing for ever since it stopped snowing. We got .22" of rain, while most of Louisville passed an inch. This was because a heavy thunderstorm clipped the north part of Jefferson County and missed everything south of St. Matthews.

There is one more cell that has a Severe Thunderstorm Warning tailing it that is making its way NE to the Spencer County, Jeff County line. Anyone near this area is entitled to penny size hail and heavy bout of rain.

WHOOPS!! Just got a look at the radar in the middle of posting here and this storm HAS A ROTATION SIGNATURE!!! This does not mean there is a tornado, but it does mean stay in your house. This is a VERY small storm so it will only affect a tiny area. I can't tell if there is hooking, but its looking like it a little bit. If you live anywhere in S. Jeff County or N. Spencer County, you need to monitor this system.

So anyway, if this thing gets a hook echo (hook echo=funnel cloud ~ tornado), then I will post again and really look at the path of this baby...

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

3/13 - 9pm - What? Storms You Say?

Well, well, well. The SPC has put out a slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow (afternoon). I got a look at the CAPE model, which shows instability in J/KG. It had some good instability in here for the right time. The CIN model, which shows LIMITING factors to instability was nearly blank for 18UTC, our prime time for severe weather. So, I think that the next output of SPC figures will expand the slight risk for tomorrow.

Earlier today I thought that it would be a small storm ("un petit l'orage" in French). There wasn't enough instability and moisture on the models. But now, things are looking a little hairier. I'm not saying there will be a massive outbreak of anything, but I think that some areas will see hail and some gusty winds. The lighting could be impressive also.

We must bid adieu to our warm weather for a week. We'll be in the 40's and 50's this weekend, and gradually rising through the 60's through next week. The 70's WILL return next weekend, and I see an indefinite end on that pattern (woo hoo!).

Sunday, March 11, 2007

3/11 - 4:30pm - The GFS has lost its mind.

I think the GFS has lost it, not like we've ever seen that before. We're nice and dry with temperatures in the low 60's now. The GFS paints a different picture for next week though:

Yes, that is snow and temperatures in the teens you see there. Temperatures are supposed to be in the mid 70's mid-week. Why on earth is this thing giving us a shot of light snow?

Personally I think the model is way overcompensating for the closed off low. It has it diving down way too far south for this time of year. I think temperatures will cool, but not to the teens. I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing evaporate off the model tonight or tomorrow. I'm ready for spring!

Saturday, March 10, 2007

Friday, March 9, 2007

3/9 - 11pm - Storm Risk is Gone...

For our Thursday cool down, it will not be so bad as earlier models were advertising. This morning's model runs had a devil of a cold front coming through at a prime time for instability, but now that has shifted to late night so we are out of a risk. There are still numerous storm chances over the next two weeks, but they are too far out to say anything about.

We do have a shot at some mild thunderstorms tomorrow, but I do mean mild. There will just be some spotty showers with embedded thunder makers. That's really it for now.

Hey, I will be happy if we can keep this 60-70 degree thing up for the next two weeks. Unfortunately, this weekend will be in the upper 50's and next weekend possibly cooler. BUT, all of the days in between will be in the 60's. Then, after next week we will have a nice run of 70's. That's still two weeks off though...

Finally, there is some room for change in the things I have said tonight. Today was forecasted to be in the upper 50's a few days ago, and a last minute 70's change was surprising. I've also been hearing conflicting severe weather guesses for late next week flying like potatoes. So, if I come on here tomorrow with a completely different paradigm of next week, you'll know that things are going nuts in the forecasting world...

3/9 - 1PM - Oh yeah...

The temperature is 68 degrees at my house now. For the first time in 2007, I went outside without a jacket! The weather is more like spring today than spring itself. I'll go through some numbers and such from today and more forecasting for later this next week when I post tonight.

Thursday, March 8, 2007

3/8 - 9:30pm - Storms in the Long Range

I love this new "boring" weather pattern. I haven't needed a heavy coat this week, which is really convenient. It'll just get warmer and warmer this next week after a small weekend cool down with some showers.

Then it will POP!!!

What do I mean by pop? I mean a devil of a storm on the horizon. The SPC hasn't put anything on their 4-8 day long range yet, but I have this feeling that tomorrow or Saturday will yield some forecast alterations.

Thursday of next week will be warm, with highs in the 70's. Just 24 hours later it will be in the low 50's. That spells a storm without even looking at a weather model. Once I looked at the GFS, I was able to finally see a storm threat for this coming up Thursday. The cold air will be pushing so hard that I think we will even have a severe weather outbreak.

This outbreak will be multi-faceted though. The south will be pulling in some major moisture with a low tracking south of Texas. That right there will fuel the southern half of the severe weather threat. The northern half (us included) will not be AS potent, but a diving cold front will push what moisture we will have and make it turbulent. I know that the central Alabama area has had a lot to cope with lately, but luckily it looks like the severe threat will shift this time to the Pensacola/Destin/Ft.Walton Beach Florida area. That won't be good for college spring breakers next week!

So lets talk local now. We are in a threat for Thursday, even though the SPC is quiet about it. The last time we had a real diver of a cold front like this with this kind of temperature variation, it didn't go over well. I do not think we are under fire for any sort of really bad severe weather at this point, but I think some run of the mill hail and high wind will come this way.

There are some other storms coming later on in the next few weeks, but it's too early to really talk about those. Maybe I'll finally get a forecast video out this weekend! I've been so busy that I have just put the videos on the back burner, but I'm getting back in the groove now...

Wednesday, March 7, 2007

3/7-7pm - Up and Down...

Well, looks like we're in for a short roller coaster ride for the next few days. Today got to a nice 62 degrees in Louisville, but tomorrow will be cooler. Since we have a clipper system that just passed north of us, our winds will come from the north tonight and tomorrow. Showers are expected this weekend, but nothing heavy at all.

We will be in the 60's all weekend (rejoice!). I smell 70 degrees for late next week, although there is a price to pay for this though.

On Thursday we have a good chance of hitting 70 degrees. The day after will be in the 40's or 50's. You know what that means, storms. I have a good guess that we will have storms with this front, but I cannot comment on the intensity yet. The SPC hasn't even said anything yet, so it would be unreasonable for me to assume a severe weather situation will ensue. We'll see though...

Saturday, March 3, 2007

Weird Weather Today

Wow, I can honestly say that we had some odd weather today. We started off with flurries in the morning, then increasing in intensity by noon. After about 12:30, the snow showers turned into snow pellets (snow melts in midair then refreezes). After an hour of that, the sun comes out and a really pretty afternoon ensues. But wait! More snow showers come after 2:00 and then cease by 5pm.

All through this we held between 34 and 37 degrees, so no accumulation with that.

Our next weather maker will be next weekend with some rain. I still can't rule out the possibility of thunderstorms with this system.

Friday, March 2, 2007

Boring Weather Pattern

We've got snow showers (whatever...) for tomorrow. With highs in the upper 30's, don't expect any accumulation with these.

We will see some warming after a brief cold shot tomorrow. Other than that, we'll see some rain in here next weekend with some possible storms as the temperatures rise. No real snow or "funderstorms" (ones that have cool lightning or impressive formation like wall clouds or gust fronts) in the forecast yet. Since we do have La Nina (cold ocean current off the coast of Peru), we could get some more feisty storms this spring as the pattern allows.

I will TRY to get a new forecast video out tomorrow, but I have to work on my new French weather video for my school's foreign language competition. That may inhibit or delay the video until Sunday, but we'll see how it goes.

Thursday, March 1, 2007

Too Cold For Any Local Excitement...

The tornadoes in Alabama and Missouri have just been awful. There are many fatalities/injuries and I'm certain they will increase as more tornadoes touch down tonight. I'm glad there was at least some warning to this area about this outbreak.

As for here, we we too cold for anything impressive. It just rained and there was some wind.

Now we're just left with not much in the forecast for the next few days. Some thunderstorms are forecasted for tomorrow and snow showers are on tap for Saturday. That's really it for the next week or so. I think we'll warm it up to the 60's after next week, so that's a nice welcoming sign for spring.