Friday, March 27, 2009

3/27 - 4pm - Severe Storms Tomorrow

No blog updates until Monday 4/6/09.
No video or 7 day forecast updates until 4/11/09.
Have a happy and safe Spring Break 2009!

Since I won't be around to do a video forecast tomorrow, here's an updated 7 day forecast for next week:

The newest SPC severe weather outlook has upgraded much of Georgia to a 45% risk for storms tomorrow:

Areas 15% or higher are in a SLIGHT Risk for severe storms, and that 45% area will likely be a MODERATE Risk tomorrow morning. At any rate, a tornado outbreak is possible in the 45% area tomorrow as a shortwave with strong shear and decent instability comes through. I think we'll see some severe weather with a few tornadoes around the region tomorrow afternoon, but the main outbreak should be suppressed to the south. If by chance instability increases more than expected tomorrow with increased sunlight, we'll see more severe weather.

Right now, rain is coming up from the south and should be in Louisville within the hour. This will continue for a few hours this evening, but we should clear out completely by the early morning hours of tomorrow, if not before. This break will last until around 2-3pm, when clusters of severe storms start rolling through. Be sure to keep your weather radios on alert mode tomorrow afternoon and evening as this system comes through.

Evacuations are underway in North Dakota after the Red River broke a record level this morning. Sandbagging has been well underway for the last few days and residents are hoping the river does not go much higher. To read more, click here.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

3/26 - 8pm - Spring Break and Severe Weather

Spring Break starts tomorrow afternoon for all JCPS schools and many other districts. I'll be gone this weekend and next week, so no forecast video or blog updates until next Monday (4/6).

If you're staying in town, you're in for quite a rocky ride weather-wise. Storms will start tomorrow afternoon with a high near 62 after a nice start to the day. Periods of rain and storms will continue through Friday night and into Saturday. With moist air and instability present on Saturday, multiple lines of severe thunderstorms and super cells are possible throughout the afternoon and into Saturday evening. I think hail and wind will be the main threat, but tornadoes are certainly possible due to decent shear profiles, along with the instability and cold front behind all of this mess. The latest SPC outlook has us in a 30% area (SLIGHT Risk) for severe weather:

The SPC mentions that they will be upgrading some of that 30% area to a MODERATE Risk tomorrow, so I'll post that information when I get home after school. I'm thinking this outbreak will be worst to our south in Tennessee and northern Georgia and Alabama, but if the associated area of low pressure shifts northward and westward, temperatures would bump up here and the supply of moist air from the Gulf would intensify a bit. If the low shifts eastward/southward, then our severe risk would decrease. We'll have to see what happens.

In any case, we'll top out at 67 on Saturday and then drop to 50 for Sunday after the cold front comes through, but luckily we'll recover to 65 by Monday. The next chance of rain will occur on Tuesday, with a high near 60. We'll end the week in the 60's it looks like, with a chance for rain or storms on Thursday night.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

3/25 - 7:30pm - A Bit of Light Rain, Severe Weekend?

Spotty showers are moving out of the area right now, with light rain possible during the overnight hours continuing until around noon tomorrow. Temperatures will only bump up a couple degrees for tomorrow, so expect a high of around 63.

Storms will come through on Friday night and last until Saturday afternoon. If shear is as high on Saturday as it looks right now, there could be tornado problem on early Saturday afternoon near us or just to our south. The SPC has us just outside of a SLIGHT risk and inside a 5% risk area for severe weather on Friday (see left). We're just inside a risk for severe weather on Saturday on the 4-8 day outlook. They'll adjust that as more model data comes in this week.

I'll be out of town this weekend and next week for spring break, so there won't be any forecast video or severe weather coverage on Saturday.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

3/24 - 8:30pm - Rain, Temperature Drop

We've been really behind on rain for the month of March, and it took me until today to realize just how badly we needed it. At around 1pm today we had a fire drill at school, which required us to walk to the football practice field and stand for a while. The grass on the field was a bright yellow color and crunched underfoot, but the part that got me was the dust cloud that formed over us as we walked on it. I'd say that it's pretty dry! And did I mention that it was 75 degrees for a high today?

A bit of relief is on the way tonight, with rain already showing up to our west on Doppler Plus:

It looks like we'll see about a half inch of rain here tonight as this system ahead of a cold front passes, with some thunder possible. The rain should end at around lunchtime tomorrow and leave us with a high only in the lower 60's. More rain will come through early Thursday, with Saturday looking very wet and maybe even severe at this point. Temperatures will hold in the lower 60's again for Thursday, but we'll warm up to highs in the mid 60's for Friday and Saturday.

Another cold front will come through on late Saturday and temperatures will take a hit. We'll see upper 50's for Sunday, but we'll recover into the lower 60's by Tuesday.

Monday, March 23, 2009

3/23 - 6pm - It's 70 Again

Sitting outside for lunch at around noon today was almost unbearable at 59 degrees, but between noon and now we've improved to 70 degrees. Tomorrow looks even warmer, with temperatures approaching 75 degrees. Showers and storms (non-severe) will begin tomorrow night ahead of a cold front and will continue until just after lunchtime tomorrow.

The temperature drop on Thursday will not be as significant as previous cold fronts this month, because we'll top out in the mid 60's for Thursday. Spotty showers are possible for both Thursday and Friday. More thunderstorms and a cold front come through on Saturday, with a more significant temperature drop next week. We'll see mostly 50's, but I think Sunday could drop just below 50 degrees for a high.

After weeks of warnings, Mount Redoubt in Alaska has finally erupted. Multiple eruptions last night sent ash 50,000+ feet in the air, canceling a few Alaska Airlines flights from Anchorage. A few communities closer to the volcano have experienced light falling ash, but Anchorage has been clear so far. For more information, click here. For current observations, visit the Alaska Volcano Observatory's website.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

3/21 - 2:30pm - New Forecast Video

Clouds have now cleared around the Louisville area, making for a clear, chilly day. Temperatures will warm considerably by early next week, with thunderstorms on Tuesday night into Wednesday. More warm weather is on the way after the storms, so keep those shorts handy!

(Opening music by Kevin MacLeod)

Friday, March 20, 2009

3/20 - 11:45pm - Spring is Here! (700th Blog Post)

Sorry for the late post everyone, I had a laundry list of things I had to wrap up today.

Spring officially started today at 7:44am, and with temperatures in the 50's it didn't come in with much fanfare. Tomorrow will reach 60 for a high, with 70's on the way for Tuesday and possibly even Wednesday. Rain chances look slim for the weekend, but should go up for Tuesday and Wednesday with an approaching cold front. The good news is that this front will only send us back into the 60's, much less of a drop when compared to this week's cold front that came through.

Cooler weather looks to be holding off for at least another full week, and the strength of the cold air seems to be weakening on the latest GFS model runs. In any case, I think days with highs in the 40's in the coming weeks are numbered.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

3/19 - 8:30pm - Last Day of Winter

Today was the official last day of winter, meaning spring starts tomorrow at 7:44am. This is when the sun will be pointed directly at the equator (an equinox), and will pass into the Northern Hemisphere after that time.

Today wasn't too bad considering we had a cold front go through last night, but it will cool down a little more for tomorrow. Frost is possible around the area tonight as we head into the middle 30's tonight, with highs just above 50 tomorrow. Warming starts this weekend with highs in the lower 60's, rising to near or above 70 by Tuesday. Storms will come through on Wednesday, and depending on their arrival time could be strong or severe. That'll be something to watch for next week.

Cooler weather could be on the way after next week if the GFS trends are correct.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

3/18 - 6:15pm - Warm Weather Ends

Our high today was right at 76 degrees, which is also the current temperature. Rain should be here after midnight ahead of a cold front that will send temperatures down to the mid 50's tomorrow. There might be a few claps of thunder overnight, but no severe weather is expected.

We'll be in the mid 50's again for Friday, but we should recover into the lower 60's for the weekend. While we'll be dry for the weekend, shower chances should increase for early next week. I think we'll have another shot at 70 on Wednesday, but temperatures will decrease again as yet another cold front comes through.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

3/17 - 5pm - St. Patrick's Day

Happy St. Patrick's Day! The luck of the Irish is certainly with us if you've been outside and enjoyed the nice weather today. It may not be the warmest St. Patrick's Day on record in Louisville, but it's certainly pretty warm! Louisville's NWS office has put out a great St. Patrick's Day weather fact sheet for Kentucky... check it out here.

While it started out cold, today turned out to be one of the most beautiful days of 2009 so far. We're holding at 71 right now, which is also the high temperature so far for today. We may bump it up a degree or so in the next hour, but I think we've hit the ceiling. Tomorrow will be even warmer as southwest winds increase in intensity ahead of a cold front poised to make its way through the region tomorrow night.

While they won't be severe, thunderstorms will roll through tomorrow night ahead of this cold front. As you may have guessed, cooler temperatures will follow this front. We'll see mid 50's for Thursday and upper 50's for Friday, but 60's and more dry weather will be on tap for this weekend. Looks like we'll make another run at 70 early next week before yet another cold front comes through on Tuesday.

Monday, March 16, 2009

3/16 - 4:30pm - The Sun is Out!

After a few days without seeing the sun, clouds are clearing and brighter days are ahead! With this sunlight, temperatures will skyrocket into the 70's for both Tuesday and Wednesday. We should top out at 72 tomorrow, with 75 possible for Wednesday. As always, there's a price to pay for this nice weather, usually in the form of a cold front and thunderstorms. Compared to last week's temperature drop, this one won't be so bad. Storms will come through on Wednesday night with the cold front and temperatures should only top out in the mid 50's for Thursday, which isn't too bad. Severe weather shouldn't be an issue due to the late night passage of the storms and the lack of instability and shear present.

The sun will be back out for Friday, with a high near 60. We'll rise through the mid 60's during the weekend, which will be dry this time around.

March is Severe Weather Preparedness Month in Kentucky. Louisville's National Weather Service office has put together a nice page going over safety tips and tools you can use this Spring as severe weather cranks up in our area. Here's an interesting fact about tornadoes from the site:
Most often tornadoes travel around 30 mph but are capable of going 70 mph or are even capable of standing still.

Click here to check out the page.

Saturday, March 14, 2009

3/14 - 1:30pm - New Forecast Video

Recent radar trends are indicating that we may actually see the rain stop before 3pm this afternoon. More rain should come back into the area later tonight and then clear out sometime after midnight. After this rain exits, temperatures will increase for next week. A high in the middle 70's for Wednesday would not surprise me. Storms coming through on Wednesday night will give way to temperatures in the 50's for the rest of next week.

For the next month or so, I'll have a new bumper in front of each forecast video. Last week's was a short video of my weather station and this week's is a sped-up video of the moon I took in January before the ice storm hit.

Friday, March 13, 2009

3/13 - 8:30pm - Warming Up Slowly

You may have seen the school closing/delay crawlers on the bottom of your local news channels this morning. Here's why:

(Click image to see a larger view)

Counties to our south received up to 3 inches of snow late last night, which caused problems for the morning commute in Larue, Hart, Nelson, and other counties in Kentucky. This will be one of the last (if not the last) accumulating snowfalls in the area for the season.

Warmer temperatures are on the way as high pressure builds back in. Tomorrow will see a high near 50 degrees due to showers developing around the area. Sunday will take things up a notch with a high in the mid 50's and rain moving out by the afternoon. We'll rise steadily through the 60's for Monday and Tuesday, with a high in the 70's for Wednesday.

Another cold front with rain comes through on Wednesday, so we'll have to bid the warm temperatures adieu once again. We won't drop as far in temperature as we did with the last cold front though, with highs only going down into the low 50's for the remainder of next week.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

3/12 - 9pm - Not Much Snow

A Winter Weather ADVISORY has been issued for counties to our south. As temperatures cool below freezing tonight, all the rain down there right now will turn to snow and sleet:

Up to an inch of snow and sleet could accumulate down that way, but I think we'll see a few snow showers locally. There shouldn't be more than a dusting of snow by tomorrow morning, if even that.

If you're ready for spring-like weather, I can't really promise that in the short-term. I can at least say that temperatures are on the way up! Tomorrow will top out in the upper 40's and it looks about the same for Saturday, but a bit of rain is possible. Sunday will see highs in the middle 50's with some sprinkles or showers.

60's are on the way for early next week, with a possible shot at 70 by Wednesday according to some of the latest model runs. Cooler temperatures will settle in again for late next week as a cold front comes through on Thursday. That's some March Madness right there!

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

3/11 - 5pm - Talking Snow Again

The cooler air behind the front that passed through last night was sure a wake-up call. Winter is not over yet! There is even a chance of snow and sleet tomorrow night as temperatures dip below freezing and a bit of moisture comes up from the south. There shouldn't be more than a dusting in Louisville, but I think up to an inch is possible in Central and Southern Kentucky. At any rate, accumulations should be contained to the grassy areas because the ground is still warm from our recent run in the 60's and 70's.

During the day tomorrow we may have a hard time making it to 40. Friday will be a small improvement over tomorrow, with temperatures nearing 50 degrees. Mid 50's and a chance for rain will be possible during the weekend.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

3/10 - 8pm - Storms and Cooler Weather

We hit 78 degrees at 3:42pm today, which breaks a record of 77 set in 1879. Wow!

Unfortunately, our streak of warm weather is set to end tonight as a cold front and accompanying storms come through. These storms should not be severe due to their post-midnight arrival, but they could be severe in areas to our west later this evening. Overall, there should be a short period of moderate to heavy rain tonight with some lightning and wind.

Get ready for a chilly day tomorrow! After this front passes tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid 40's for both Wednesday and Thursday. A bit of recovery looks likely this weekend, with temperatures rising into the 50's. With this warmth will come a chance of showers for both Saturday and Sunday. 60's may return early next week.

Monday, March 9, 2009

3/9 - 5:15pm - Showers Tonight, Storms Tomorrow Night

Here's the latest on tomorrow night's severe situation from the SPC:

We're only in a 5% risk area for severe storms tomorrow due to the late-night passage of the cold front. Storms should fire over Missouri in the evening, but they'll weaken before they hit us during the overnight hours of Tuesday into Wednesday. There could be some strong storms with high wind around here tomorrow night, but I don't expect much severe weather, if any, at this time.

Looking at the radar, I think we'll have a slight chance of a shower tonight as a system out in Missouri heads northward, but no appreciable rain. Tomorrow's forecast is simply spectacular, with temperatures hitting 80 degrees if the sun comes out. It's unclear right now if we'll have cloud cover all-day tomorrow, but if we do, expect temperatures only to top out in the lower 70's instead. Rain shouldn't pose an issue until the late-night hours of Tuesday, but winds could gust up to 30mph throughout the day.

The cold front coming through generating the storms tomorrow night will cool our temperatures down considerably for the rest of this week. We'll sink down to 50 for Wednesday and slump into the 40's for Thursday and Friday, but temperatures should recover back into the 50's for the weekend.

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has completed their survey of damage caused by the storms in Southern Indiana yesterday. They concluded that an EF3 tornado hit Fayetteville, IN and that an EF0 tornado hit areas near Bedford, IN yesterday, together destroying 3 homes and damaging 19. For more details, click here.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

3/8 - 6:30pm - Severe Threat Over

The severe weather threat has ended for the Louisville area. We got lucky and missed out on most of the action, which occurred to our north and south. Tornado reports were mainly in Southern Indiana:

3/8 - 4pm - Storm Update

Tornado touchdowns are being reported in Indiana near Bedford, west of Seymour. A tornado is on the ground right now in Freetown, IN according to reports.

Storms from Evansville, IN are taking aim at the Louisville Metro. Funnel clouds have been reported with these storms, so this will be something to watch over the next hour.

3/8 - 3:15pm - TORNADO WATCH

A Tornado Watch has been issued for the Louisville area:

7 tornado reports have been filed this afternoon in Missouri and Illinois. Two tornado warnings are in effect right now, one north of Jasper, IN and one SW of Gary, IN. The storms should roll through in the next couple hours.

3/8 - 12pm - Tornado Watch Issued to our West

Just wanted to pass along that a Tornado Watch has been issued for Evansville, IN and points west:

We'll probably be placed under a Tornado Watch in the next few hours if these storms do not weaken.

3/8 - 10:45am - Severe Weather On the Way

This was just issued by the SPC:

We're just outside the MODERATE Risk area for severe storms. Our tornado chances from the SPC have risen to 5% from 2% earlier this morning.

This all should transpire this afternoon as a broken line of thunderstorms comes through. The interesting part is that shear is actually pretty good, so we could actually see a couple supercells ahead or mixed in with the main line of storms. The main threats today appear to be hail and wind, but there is a threat for isolated tornadoes. With that in mind, keep your weather radios armed this afternoon. Instability is pretty marginal, but shear coupled with forcing should make up for that. If the sun comes out today, then this threat will increase due to higher instability.

Here's what's on the radar right now:

Notice how this line is forming into broken cells as opposed to a unified line. There are three Tornado Warnings out in Southern Missouri with these storms, pretty much where the line is breaking into individual cells.

Saturday, March 7, 2009

3/7 - 2pm - New Forecast Video

What a gorgeous day around the area! This wonderful weather should continue until tomorrow night, when severe thunderstorms could roll through the area. We'll warm it back up for Tuesday, but Wednesday will be significantly cooler after another round of possibly severe storms comes through on Tuesday night.

Don't forget to set your clocks forward one hour tonight!

Friday, March 6, 2009

3/6 - 7pm - Go Away Clouds!

Cloud cover kept temperatures in the 60's today, but the clouds should break up a bit for tomorrow. I think we'll top out at around 76 tomorrow, so get out there and enjoy it!

Look for lower 70's on Sunday, with a chance for storms at night. There could be a severe squall line coming through during this time with high winds and small hail, so the SPC is calling for a SLIGHT Risk of severe storms on Sunday night:

Another front will come through with storms on Tuesday night. This should take our temperatures from the 60's and 70's back down into 40's and 50's for the rest of next week.

Don't forget to turn your clocks forward an hour on Saturday night!

Thursday, March 5, 2009

3/5 - 7:30pm - 70's in Early March!

If you could stand the 30-40mph winds, today featured some nice weather! Wind speeds should not be as high tomorrow as they were today and we should top out at around 70. I wouldn't rule out a stray shower during the afternoon hours tomorrow, but I don't think rain will be a major issue. As even more warm air builds into the area on Saturday, temperatures should top out in the upper 70's. How awesome is that for the beginning of March?

Storms coming through ahead of a front on Sunday night will lower temperatures a little bit, but we'll still be in the 60's for some of next week. A more potent cold front coming through early Wednesday will bring more storms and drop us into the 40's for the balance of the week.

Daylight Savings Time Starts on Sunday morning at 2 A.M., so don't forget to set your clocks forward one hour on Saturday night!

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

3/4 - 5pm - Cold Weather is Outta Here!

Southerly winds have pushed the cold air away and now we're left with a warming trend as these continue. Tomorrow will be in the low 60's, and Friday could reach close to 70 with a brief shower or two. Saturday could actually hit 70 with cloudy skies. Temperatures will ease back into the mid 60's on Sunday as thunderstorms comes into play, with storms continuing into early Monday morning.

60's will continue for much of next week, with rain on Tuesday into Wednesday. The cold front generating this rain as it comes through will give us cooler weather after Wednesday of next week, so don't put away those heavy jackets just yet!

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

3/3 - 6:45pm - One More Cold Night

While we won't get down into the teens like we did this morning, overnight lows around the area will be cold for one more night. I think most areas will sink into the 20's, but a few locations in Southern Indiana could approach the teens.

Tomorrow will be a vast improvement over today, with a high in the low 50's. We'll surpass the 60 degree mark on Thursday, with 70 possible for Friday and/or Saturday. It still looks like that we'll get a few showers on Friday, but the weekend should remain dry and warm for the most part. A cold front should sink south with rain (and possibly thunderstorms) on Sunday night and dampen our warm temperatures a bit, but we shouldn't get below the mid 40's on Monday.

60's return for the rest of next week, but be aware that this warm streak will temporarily end sometime late next week.

The National Weather Service offices in Louisville and Paducah are going to be using new criteria for severe thunderstorm warnings beginning April 1st. The only change is that a storm will be considered severe if it is producing one inch diameter hail, up from three quarters of an inch per the old criteria. This is good because it should reduce the number of severe thunderstorm warnings issued, which will make them more credible to a weather-weary public. Click here to read more about the change.

Monday, March 2, 2009

3/2 - 5:30pm - Who's Sick of Winter?

From car windows, down crowded hallways, and above the chatter of a lively cafeteria, the question I've been asked many times today is, "When's it going to warm up!?"

I'm happy to say that I had the answer: Wednesday. Yes, Wednesday is the day that we will creep back into the 50's after a chilly weekend complete with snow and road problems. This also comes after topping out in the 40's tomorrow. By Thursday, 60 degree temperatures will be back as winds out of the south channel warmer air into our neck of the woods. The shower chance I have on the 7-day forecast still stands, but I think we'll go warmer than the 62 degree high I put on there on Saturday. I think we'll actually top out in the upper 60's on Friday based on the latest runs of the GFS.

The pick of the week is Saturday, with a high near 70 and a slight chance of showers. Wow!

We'll cool down a touch for next week, but we shouldn't get too far below 60, if at all. Cooler temperatures are on the way for late next week as rain comes into the area ahead of a cold front.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

3/1 - 12pm - Meteorological Spring!

Welcome to the first day of Meteorological Spring! March 1st marks the beginning of what we call spring in meteorology, which runs through March, April, and May. Astronomical Spring starts on March 20th, when the Vernal equinox occurs and the sun crosses the equator.

It may be the first day of spring in a meteorological sense, but it sure didn't feel like it. We had a dusting of snow last night in town, causing many accidents on the interstates when temperatures dropped below freezing and existing water and snow froze to the roadways. We got pretty lucky considering how much snow fell in the south yesterday:

You can see on the map that areas just north of Memphis got pounded with over a foot of snow. Memphis itself received a wide range of snow totals, from around 3 to 11 inches. Other parts of the south are still getting snow, especially areas around Atlanta right now.

Temperatures will soar into the 60's later this week and rain chances look slim to none at this point. As far as the rest of this month goes, I don't think we're done with the snow. The long range GFS is pointing at a roller-coaster pattern with plenty of precipitation to go around. I really don't know if we'll get another big storm or not, but this is the time of year when surprises happen... like last March:

Take a look at the new blog banner if you haven't noticed it... there are also a few minor layout changes I made as well.