Thursday, April 30, 2009

4/30 - 4:30pm - More Rain to Come

The sun came out a couple hours ago and warmed us up quite a bit today, but thunderstorms are on the way from the southeast. The SPC has put us under a 5% risk for tornadoes this afternoon and evening, but so far we've only seen scattered non-severe storms in areas to our west. With the amount of sunshine we saw today, we may see a few of these storms reach severe limits. The Pegasus Parade starts in half an hour and I think the storms are far enough away to not pose any problems until after the parade ends.

Storms will continue tonight and then more thunderstorms will roll through tomorrow afternoon. At this time the SPC doesn't have us in a severe weather threat area and I think instability won't be as strong as previously thought. In any case, Oaks could get wet.

The forecast for the Kentucky Derby is deteriorating at the moment. The GFS and NAM models are giving us showers during the day and evening on Saturday, which means our high may not break 70 degrees. Better get some plastic to cover those Derby hats!

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

4/29 - 10pm - Severe Chances and Derby

Here's the latest severe outlook from the SPC for tomorrow:

We may see some storms tomorrow morning, but scattered storms around the area tomorrow could be strong to severe. I don't think there will be much in the way of severe weather with the cloudy mess in the morning limiting our instability potential for the afternoon.

Another chance for severe weather happens on Friday (Oaks):

Friday's severe weather chances will probably be more elevated due to better shear and instability (maybe up to 1000 J/KG). Even though this is not the best setup for a widespread severe weather event, these storms will fire in the afternoon as to our west and will be in here for the late afternoon and evening hours on Friday. Temperatures will be near 80, but these thunderstorms could pose problems for the Kentucky Oaks if they pass through before 6pm.

Derby is still up in the air with regards to rain. The models are still in disagreement, but I'm going to go with a few sprinkles, overcast skies, and a high near 70 for Saturday. As I've been saying for the last few days, this still needs time to be hammered out.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

4/28 - 5:30pm - More Rain to Come

We got .18" of rain today at my house, but more is on the way. The HPC estimates we'll get in excess of three inches of rain this week:

This certainly seems feasible after seeing tons of rain on GFS model from today all the way to Saturday morning (I'll get to Derby weather in a moment).

Another rainy day is on the way for tomorrow with a high in the lower 70's. The Pegasus Parade on Thursday looks fairly wet right now, but there is the potential for a bit of clearing in the afternoon that could send temperatures into the upper 70's.

Let's talk Oaks weather... which doesn't look too good. The SPC just issued this severe weather outlook pertaining to Friday (Oaks):

Since there is a fairly strong cold front coming through early Saturday, conditions look at least marginally good for a severe weather situation around here. The highest instability will stay to our west it looks like, but moisture flow into the area will be quite ample to support strong to severe storms. I'll have more on this as we get closer, but nobody wants severe weather during Oaks!

Derby is another wild card at this point because it depends on what time this cold front passes in the morning. If the front passes through during the early morning hours as the GFS indicates, we should have clearing skies by the time the horses are ready to go. If this front delays, we could have a rainy mess at Churchill Downs. I'm leaning toward the no-rain solution for Derby right now, but everyone needds to keep in mind that this is a very tricky forecast situation.

Monday, April 27, 2009

4/27 - 10pm - Rain... Coming to an Area Near You!

We've been lucky to be so dry lately, unless you have plants that need the water. The good news or bad is that rain is on the way for tomorrow, starting in the late morning hours. We'll get up to around 75 for a high tomorrow in spite of the rain. The rain should lessen in intensity and may even break for a while on Wednesday, but we're back with more of the wet stuff on Thursday and Friday.

Derby day looks downright iffy right now. The GFS is keeping some lighter showers behind this cold front well into the afternoon, but I think this front will exit in a jiffy. So, the bottom line is that rain will fall on Saturday morning, but it should clear out around lunchtime and temperatures should make it up into the lower 70's. This will need some fine-tuning as the week goes on.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

4/26 - 9pm - Tom Wills Retiring at WAVE-TV

After 40 years at WAVE-TV, meteorologist Tom Wills has officially announced his retirement. While it won't happen until June, Mr. Wills will be missed in both the meteorology community and within Louisville as a whole. Luckily, he might come back to the station once in a while to do fill-in work.

I met him once at the Louisville Regional Science Fair back in 2004. I had my seventh grade science fair project on the Doppler Effect and Tom Wills was one of the judges in the earth sciences category. He was a real approachable guy and said not one bad word about my project, even though it was in the wrong category (I needed to be in physics) as I later found out.

40 years is a long time to be working at any one place, especially in the broadcast business. I'll miss his good cheer on 84 WHAS in the mornings when I'm up early for school, but hey, he doesn't have to wake up at 2:30AM anymore! To read the full article that ran in yesterday's Courier-Journal, click here. To read Kevin Harned's blog entry on Wills' retirement, click here.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

4/25 - 3pm - New Video Forecast

How about this warm weather? We could touch 90 degrees today in some spots, and 80's should continue through Monday. Storms coming through on Tuesday and Thursday afternoon could be strong or maybe even severe, but it's uncertain at the moment. Temperatures should hold in the 70's and 80's next week. Enjoy!

Friday, April 24, 2009

4/24 - 7:30pm - First Day in the 80's!

Today was our first day in the 80's for 2009, with 87 degrees for a high. Talk about shattering a ceiling there! Today's temperature was a couple degrees above what was forecast, and tomorrow could very well do the same. Since there will be little or no cloud cover, we could get up to 90 degrees tomorrow and break our previous record of 88 for April 25th. We'll have to watch the thermometers tomorrow!

80's will stick around until Tuesday, when an approaching cold front will generate showers and thunderstorms around the area. It's too early to tell if these will be severe, but I'll keep an eye on it. We shouldn't drop below 75 for highs next week, so the temperature hit from the cold front won't be bad at all.

Derby still looks wet on the GFS model, but luckily we're keeping 70's in the forecast. Now's the time to start crossing your fingers for no rain, we're only a week away!

Thursday, April 23, 2009

7/23 - 5pm - A Few Sprinkles Around

A few rain showers and even a couple thunderstorms are making their way through Kentuckiana ahead of a warm front. These are a bit unexpected since dry air was forecast to be in the area with the passage of the front, but enough moisture worked its way in to generate a spotty radar picture today:

As drier air works its way back into the area tonight, these showers will dissipate and dry conditions will remain until at least Tuesday afternoon, when some afternoon thunderstorms look possible ahead of a cold front. Highs in the low to mid 80's are a good bet starting tomorrow and should last until the cold front comes through early Wednesday. Temperatures after the cold front's passage should hold in the 60's and 70's.

The latest Kentucky Derby forecast looks a bit better temperature-wise, but I'm still seeing rain as a possibility. Hopefully we'll see 70 degrees and dry weather instead of the 70 and wet weather I'm seeing on the GFS model right now.

A wildfire in Myrtle Beach, SC is burning dozens of homes and causing evacuations... click here to read more.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

4/22 - 6pm - Time For 80's, Earth Day!

80-degree weather is on the way! Today's 66 seemed a bit chilly to some, but a high in the mid 70's tomorrow should alleviate any notion of cool weather. If you like dry weather, you have a solid seven days of that starting today! The GFS model isn't putting in a lick of precipitation until Wednesday of next week because of a big area of high pressure getting ready to settle off the east coast. That should help temperatures stay in the 80's from Friday through Tuesday, maybe even hitting 85 this weekend!

The super-extended forecast for the Kentucky Derby looks rainy with temperatures in the low 60's at the moment. This forecast is extremely long-range, so expect this to change considerably before the horses start their two-minute journey.

Today is Earth Day, so get out there and support efforts to keep our planet clean and reduce pollution!

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

4/21 - 6:30pm - Time to Warm Up!

Can you believe that some locations around the Louisville area had sleet today? Temperatures near 50 and cold upper-air temperatures made today miserable with rain and sleet coming down and a pretty good cloud cover this afternoon. The last few sleet/rain showers are moving through the area right now and they should exit completely before tomorrow morning.

This is the last of the rain for the week as temperatures skyrocket starting tomorrow with a high near 65. Mid 70's should be around for Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 80's for Friday through the weekend. Wow!

Sunday, April 19, 2009

4/19 - 6:45pm - More Rain On the Way, Mississippi State

Louisville is seeing a bit of a break right now, but more rain is on the way for tonight and even tomorrow. As the rain clears out, we'll be left with temperatures in the 60's for Tuesday and Wednesday. 70's are back for Thursday, with 80's on the way for Friday through the weekend!

I'm in Starkville, Mississippi right now to attend orientation at Mississippi State University tomorrow. I'll be back in Louisville late tomorrow and should have another blog post on Tuesday evening.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

4/18 - 12:30pm - New Video Forecast

Today's the day for Thunder Over Louisville! With a high near 76 and sunny skies, turn out will be much higher compared to last year. Rain should come through after midnight, so I expect the fireworks show to be nice and dry. Have a great time if you're going out there today!

Friday, April 17, 2009

4/17 - 8:30pm - Time for Thunder!

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Thunder Over Louisville is less than 24 hours away and the weather looks spectacular. With a high in the mid 70's, sunny skies, and fairly light winds, the air show and fireworks show should go off without a hitch. The chance of rain on the computer models a couple of days ago for the fireworks show has been pushed back far enough in time (well after midnight) for me to call for no rain during Thunder, so that's good news!

Rain will continue through the day on Sunday after starting in the early morning hours and should last until Monday. This rain will send temperatures down to near 60 for highs Monday through Wednesday, but recovery into the 70's looks good for Thursday through next weekend.

See you all at Thunder tomorrow!

Thursday, April 16, 2009

4/16 - 7:30pm - How Does 74 Sound For Thunder?

All hope seemed lost for a warm day at around noon today, but the clouds cleared in the afternoon and left us with a high of 64. Not bad for starting out with a dull, cold morning! The sun will stick around for tomorrow and I think we'll actually break 70 degrees for a high.

74 will be the magic number for this weekend, the high for Saturday during Thunder Over Louisville. The rain chance for the fireworks show has been delayed a few hours on the computer models now, so I think the duration of Thunder will be completely dry. Rain should come into the picture on Sunday morning and last through Tuesday, but the rest of the week will be dry. Temperatures will take a hit in response to the incoming rain early next week, with 60's for Sunday, 50's for Monday and Tuesday, and 60's again for Wednesday. 70's are back for Thursday through the weekend!

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Wednesday, April 15, 2009

4/15 - 7:30pm - Get Those Clouds Outta Here!

The pattern we've been in the last couple of days has been downright dreadful. 49 degrees and overcast skies seems light years away from a warm spring day, and it's hard to put up with when the average high temperature for April 15th is 67 degrees. Well, the buck stops here and temperatures are on the way up.

The sun should begin to peek out tomorrow, bringing temperatures well into the 60's for a high tomorrow. Look for highs to break 70 on Friday with plentiful sunshine. Weather for Thunder Over Louisville still looks great during the daytime airshow with temperatures in the 70's, and the rain chance for Saturday late afternoon/evening has diminished a bit on the computer models, so it should remain mostly dry around the area until well after the fireworks show. I'll keep you posted.

Don't forget, you can follow my weather updates on Twitter or become a fan of Ryan Weather on Facebook (you can also add me as a friend if you have a profile).

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

4/14 - 4pm - Rain During "Thunder?"

I've been asked this quite a few times today about the weather for Thunder Over Louisville this Saturday, and I must say that it doesn't look too bad. We should top out at around 70 during the afternoon, but the fireworks show could be marred by some late evening rain. It looks like the rain will start somewhere between 8 and 11pm, but luckily it doesn't look heavy at this point. I'll keep you up to date as the week goes on to see if this changes.

Not much to say about today's weather, other than the fact that it rained cats and dogs for a short period this morning downtown. We'll see a repeat of today's weather, minus the rain, for tomorrow. Luckily, the clouds will clear and 60's will return for Thursday. Look for highs above 70 degrees for Friday. The rain from Saturday night continues into Sunday and will last until Tuesday with another cool start to the week.

Monday, April 13, 2009

4/13 - 5pm - Severe Weather Threat Over

Thanks to all those who joined my live severe weather blog today! (see previous post)

The severe weather threat in Louisville has ended. Rain will continue to fall for a few more minutes, but severe storms will continue to be an issue in Southern Indiana and parts of northeastern Kentucky for another hour or so. We got some pea-sized hail and lightning in Louisville, but we dodged a bullet compared to reports of funnel clouds in Southern Indiana and in Henry County so far.

A few more showers are possible tomorrow, but we should clear out for Wednesday. Highs on both days should stay in the 50's. Temperatures in the 60's come back into the area on Thursday and should stick around until Sunday.

4/13 - 3:45pm - LIVE SEVERE BLOG

Feel free to comment below. I'll post updates as they become available on severe weather in the area.

4/13 - 3:30pm - Severe Weather

We're under a Severe Thunderstorm WARNING until 3:45pm in Jefferson County. Areas near Bedford, IN are under a TORNADO WARNING right now. The Tornado WATCH for the area lasts until 9pm this evening with numerous cellular thunderstorms beginning to form to our west. These will most likely merge into a broken line of storms and come through in the next hour. We could see more cells come through after the central line as well.

UPDATE 3:32 - Quarter-sized hail coming into Louisville right now. Tornado reported near Bedford.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

4/11 - 1:30pm - New Forecast Video

A nice Easter weekend is in progress, but severe weather may come into the picture early next week. It's hard to tell exactly how bad it will get here, but could be an active day across the Southeast on Monday.

Friday, April 10, 2009

4/10 - 9pm - Tennessee Tornadoes

We were lucky to only see pea-sized hail and heavy rain here in Louisville today, but areas to our south fared much, much worse. The worst of the weather was in Rutherford County, TN, where I was born and lived for the first few weeks of my life before moving to Louisville. A tornado ripped through Murfreesboro, TN and traveled through other Rutherford County towns like Smyrna, destroying more than 20 homes, killing two people, and leaving dozens injured. Here's a picture of the well-defined tornado over the Murfreesboro Airport, home to the Middle Tennessee State University aerospace program:

A damage survey will be completed tomorrow by the NWS in Nashville to determine the scale of this tornado. I know Rutherford County pretty well (30 miles south of Nashville), so seeing the pictures and reading the reports out of that area is pretty shocking.

There were tornadoes with reported injuries in other parts of the Southeast as well, including Kentucky:

For a complete wrap-up of today's tornado damage, click here.

Rain should continue for a couple more hours tonight before clearing out for a beautiful Easter weekend. We should see 60 degrees for tomorrow, but I think we'll warm up a bit more for Easter Sunday, possibly into the mid 60's. Rain chances pick up quite a bit on Monday.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

4/9 - 5:30pm - Severe Weather, A Nice Easter Weekend

What a great day! It got a bit warmer than expected with 67 degrees for a high, so this is really a bonus for us before tonight and tomorrow's rain and storms.

Speaking of precipitation, here's the current radar view:

That rain near Evansville should be here tonight and continue through the day tomorrow. We may see a short break in the rain during the late morning before potentially severe storms come through tomorrow afternoon and evening. Here's the latest severe weather outlook from the SPC:

Notice how the 30% risk is in Southern Kentucky. This is where the SPC thinks the biggest tornado risk exists. I think this area could be extended further north into the Louisville area if the higher CAPE (instability) values for Friday on today's SREF model are indeed correct and if cloudcover doesn't become an issue. The dampener though is weaker shear in our area compared to Tennessee, so that may keep the tornadoes suppressed to the south. In any case, wind and hail will be the main issues. Things should get hammered out by tomorrow morning, so stay tuned!

The total rain forecast for tonight and tomorrow from the HPC is pretty impressive:

Areas in Southwestern Indiana could see more than two inches of rain, but it looks like the immediate Louisville will get somewhere around an inch and a half.

This system will give way to a nice Easter weekened with highs near 60 and sunny skies. Next storm chance occurs on Monday.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

4/8 - 6:15pm - Warm Weather is Back!

59 degrees for a high today feels pretty good after suffering through 40-degree weather for the first half of this week! I'd say that's a return to Spring!

Temperatures will continue to rise for the rest of the workweek, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 60's through Friday. Thunderstorms come into the picture starting on Thursday evening and will continue on Friday. We're under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather from the SPC on Friday:

It's too early to tell exactly how severe these storms will be, but it looks like hail and wind will be the main problems based on current shear indications. A few tornadoes are also possible, so keep those weather radios in alert mode!

We'll clear out for Easter weekend with temperatures in the lower 60's.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

4/7 - 7:30pm - Spring is Returning!

You may think that the title for this blog entry is misleading based on the fact that we're under a Freeze WARNING tonight, but it really will begin warming up starting tomorrow. After a low around freezing tonight, we'll top out around 60 tomorrow with a few morning sprinkles possible. Rounds of thunderstorms look likely starting late Thursday afternoon and continuing until Friday evening, with highs in the lower 60's for both days.

The weekend looks great, with lower 60's on Saturday and mid 60's on Sunday. Easter egg hunts shouldn't have any weather problems with sunny skies sticking around. Rain comes back into the area for early next week as low pressure moves into the area.

Thundersnow? In the middle of April!? That's right, early this morning a band of snow showers between Crawford County, IN and Hardin County, KY became convective and started putting down heavy snow. Lightning and thunder was reported in Brandenburg.

(Notice the yellow areas on this radar snapshot this morning... thundersnow!)

For complete analysis of this morning's thundersnow, head on over to Louisville's National Weather Service website where they have a write-up on this wacky event.

Monday, April 6, 2009

4/6 - 10pm - Last Blast of Cold Air

I didn't realize how cold it was getting behind last night's cold front until the automatic doors opened in front of me as I was exiting the baggage claim at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport. The cold air hit me like a bag of bricks, especially because I was wearing the Caribbean-appropriate shorts and t-shirt combo. So much for a nice welcome home!

Back home now in jeans and long sleeves, it's good this cold weather won't last long. We'll struggle to get above 40 tomorrow with some flurries in the morning, but 60 is a good bet for Wednesday. I'm thinking we'll see 70 next week after we slowly rise through the 60's this week. The next rain system will be in here on Thursday and last until Friday. Easter weekend looks sunny and warm!