Saturday, December 29, 2007

12/29 - 8:30pm - Cold Air Coming

I'll be gone this week, so no more blog posts or videos until the 9th.

It sure looks like we're in for quite a shot of cold air after New Year's. We'll be in the 40's and 50's until Monday, when a powerful front will come through. On Tuesday and Wednesday we will not make it out of the 20's and there will be some light snow (little or no accumulation). After that we'll assume the same pattern we've been in for the past couple weeks, 40's and a stray shower here and there.

Have a great week!

Thursday, December 27, 2007

12/27 - 4pm - New Year's FREEZE

After tomorrow's rain we're going to slowly realize how warm it's been for the past couple weeks. Behind that front tomorrow night is some frigid air that we haven't seen for quite some time. I think we'll be in the 40's for Saturday and Sunday, but Monday and Tuesday won't even make it out of the 20's! We could even see some snow showers in here for New Year's Day.

I know that everyone is groaning over our lack of snow. I feel your pain. Based on some of the climate charts coming out, I think we'll have to wait until mid-January, when temperatures are forecast to cool off a bit and moisture will be on the increase. That's about all the consolation I can offer.

Monday, December 24, 2007

12/24 - 9pm - Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas everyone! It looks like we'll see some dry and mild weather tomorrow for Christmas Day. I guess that's better than rain.

Get ready for some cold weather though. It looks like New Year's Day until the 3rd is going to be bone chilling cold, with highs struggling to reach the 20's. We could even see some snow showers during this time as well. Around the 8th (yes I'm going way far out today) we could see a pattern change. The last two GFS runs have been hinting at a huge ridge pulling down from Canada and super-cooling the west and the plains, possibly spreading over our way too. If you want snow, this needs to happen. There just isn't enough cold air filtering into the East right now for anything good to happen snow-wise.

Have a great evening and Christmas Day!

Sunday, December 23, 2007

12/23 - 1pm - New Forecast Video

Merry Christmas everyone!

I won't be doing any more forecast videos until the second week of January. I'll keep the blog updated until the 28th and then they'll resume on the 10th of January. Hopefully we don't get a blizzard while I'm gone!

Saturday, December 22, 2007

12/22 - 8:30pm - No Snow on Christmas

Sorry folks but we've pretty much exhausted all of our options for getting snow on Christmas. The GFS is dry as a bone and our temperatures seem to be ever increasing in the forecast. I really don't see any good chances for snow in the next week or so either. Isn't that sad snow lovers?

I'll make a video forecast tomorrow morning since I had so many things to do today. Merry Christmas!

Friday, December 21, 2007

12/21 - 7pm - Suspicious Model Games

That title sums it up right there. I think that the Christmas "storm" (light snow) still exists, but the GFS and the others are just temporarily killing it for some reason. Henry at AccuWeather still believes its in the works for us too, with the same theory as I have. I just don't see how this storm could disappear this close in time, especially since it's Christmas! I don't know, maybe they're right and I'm wrong. But I still have lingering suspicions about it...

Anyway, I'll put out a video forecast later tomorrow afternoon and by then I hope we can hammer this thing out. KEEP SNOWY THOUGHTS!!!

Thursday, December 20, 2007

12/20 - 9pm - Well That's Annoying.

The GFS has vaporized our Christmas storm. What gives? The Euro still shows a low near here, but I can't see if there's any precip with it. I don't know what the GFS is thinking by playing with storm manifestation this close to the storm. I smell a rat... AccuWeather seems to be having the same problem right now trying to decide whether a storm will materialize. They say just to cool off and wait until tomorrow. I agree.

Until then, we'll see 50's and a chance for some showers tomorrow. A better chance for rain comes on Saturday night, with snow showers on the end of the storm by Sunday. Keep an eye on that Christmas forecast.

Christmas Snow Chance: 30%

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

12/19 - 7pm - You've Got to be Kidding Me!

So yesterday I was on here describing how bleak our outlook was for snow this Christmas. Today the models pulled a 180 and are now showing a possible storm for this part of the country. Do we get snow from this storm? Well, not yet folks. A few things have to get tidied up before we get the big one.

First off we got to make sure this low goes SOUTH of here, not ON TOP OF US, but SOUTH of us (as in the TN mtns). This factor absolutely blasted our last storm to bits.

The second thing we got to get in line is the cold air, which the GFS isn't doing real well with. Other models such as the EURO are taking the cold air and putting it here for that, so the GFS is just being stubborn like the NAM-WRF was the other day.

The third and final factor in this is the NAO value, which is the North Atlantic Oscillation (just the tilt of the airmass in the N. Atlantic). That is now forecast to be a POSITIVE tilt, which means this low can swiftly exit the US to the Atlantic via the Carolinas. This helps because it keeps the low from cutting northeast in a hurry, which again killed our last storm.

So, I'm going to keep my eyes peeled on this one, especially since it is a Christmas storm. So here's what I'm going to do; I'm going to put a Christmas snow chance at the bottom of each blog post from now until Christmas to let you see exactly what I'm thinking at the moment. Until Christmas though, we'll see highs soaring into the 60's! Looks like I'll be flying my model airplane on Friday!

Christmas Snow Chance: 30%

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

12/18 - 9pm - Back to Square One...

Well there aren't any storms coming up in the short range. That means we're in a boring weather pattern until at least the weekend, when we'll see some rain and maybe a back-end snow shower or two (just before Christmas Eve!). Speaking of Christmas, I keep getting asked whether or not it will snow or not on Christmas Day. Here's the short answer: NO. Here's the long one, it will snow (flurries) early on Christmas Eve and possibly a little more than that the day after Christmas.

There are a couple systems showing up just before New Year's on the GFS that looks similar to our last rain gusher (that could've been snow). I don't even want to think about these yet until after Santa has gone back to the North Pole. So just sit tight snow lovers.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

12/16 - 11:30am - Oops...

Yeah... hmmm... That snow didn't really come did it? There was enough moisture on the radar last night for 1-2" of snow, but it just faded away before it got here. Now we're left with high wind and cold temperatures. Oh well, maybe we'll get lucky next time. Sorry about that one folks.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

12/15 - 4pm - New Forecast Video

We're still on for some 2" or so snow accumulations tonight!

12/15 - 9am - Quick Snow Update

We had quite a round of freezing rain last night, but we're still on track for just plain rain this afternoon. The current snow forecast hasn't changed much, as we're still on track for 1-3 inches by tomorrow afternoon. The forecast video will be late due to a busy schedule this morning/afternoon.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Thursday, December 13, 2007

12/13 - 7:30pm - Sorry Snow Lovers...

Yeah, we're singing that sad song again folks. The snow looks as if its going north this time around. We'll still get some accumulation, but the rain will hold that under 2 inches (maybe just an inch). Our best chance for that accumulation is Saturday night with some snow on the backside of this low system. It really looked as if we had quite a storm on our hands, but its becoming increasingly clear that it will not be.

Something I did want to point out is that the NAM (18z) is giving us a pretty good dose of these backlash snows, but so far it looks like just one model run is going with these amounts. I also wanted to point out that we're still well over 24 hours away from the first flakes, so there could be some changes. At this time, I'm going to stick with 1-2 inches for the Louisville area. There is a distinct possibility for no accumulation as well. Something we will see is some sleet, due to the clash of warm and cold air just over us. Still some uncertainty on that end though.

Snow lovers: there is still a sliver of hope here. There is a possibility that this low could track further south and pummel us with snow. Even though the models aren't showing that, it has happened before. Just remember that the low has not even formed yet, so it's location is obviously subject to change. But right now, I don't think that'll happen. Ho hum...

Keep checking back; the next 24 hours are critical to our storm track.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

12/12 - 6:30pm - Ups and Downs

We started off the day with the models giving us all snow for Saturday, and a good chunk of it at that. As the afternoon progressed though, a small amount of warming on the models started chipping away at our possible snow totals. This same scenario happened yesterday as well.

I'll put it out there right now that we could see over 6 inches of snow if we can get all snow here. If we start with a little rain, I think we could still get a 3-5 shot. But if some of the other models are correct, we could see less than an inch. That's a big gradient!

Since this kind of warm-up on the models occurred yesterday then receded this morning, I'm skeptical. The HPC is putting us in a SLIGHT risk for over 4 inches of snow, but the MODERATE risk is just a few miles north of us. This all means that I can't tell you what will happen right now.

My best guess now is that we'll get a small bit of rain for an hour or so on Friday night and then turn to snow. Accumulations would be around 3-5 inches I would think. I was worried that the storm was definitely going north until the NAM pulled it WAY south again. (EDIT: After looking around at the other models more, I realized that this NAM is on the fritz, disregard this model run) Even though it was too far south for us to get snow, it at least balances out some of the warmer models. So really, just hold on until Friday when components start coming together and then we'll see what will happen. Somebody around here is going to get quite a snowstorm...

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

12/11 - 7pm - WILD Weather Week

Amazing! We hit 73 today, which is our new record high for this date. That won't last for long though as more rain comes in tomorrow and brings us highs in the 50's. On Thursday we'll see highs in the 40's with rain tapering off.

Now to the more important matter at hand, the possible snowstorm this weekend.

I just took a look at the 18z GFS model (which is now back to normal after yesterday) and it shows the heavy snow still in our neck of the woods. It is taking the low a little more north than the previous runs, but we're still below freezing for this storm. I'm a little worried that the low could pull even further north, but luckily (for snow lovers) its not doing that yet. If the low were to track into middle KY, then we'd see rain and snow. But for now, its in TN and S. KY on the models and we're still up for the storm.

How much is the next question. I've heard estimates of over 4 inches and 3-6 inches floated, but I'm thinking more IF AND ONLY IF it's ALL snow. Looking at the GFS this morning, I saw how we could easily be in the 6-8 inch range if things work out. I also saw on Henry Margusity's AccuWeather blog that another contributing factor to the snow amounts will be the southern severe storms that drift north and produce rapid snowfall rates. If this were to happen I think that we could see some extreme localized totals in some areas.

Remember folks, we're still 4 days out from this. There are thousands of things that can go wrong between now and Saturday, one of which is the temperature. If things look good by Friday, I'll issue a special Winter Weather Update video to give everyone a complete heads up on what's going to happen. Try to contain your excitement until at least Thursday folks, then I'll tell you whether to let it out or not...

Monday, December 10, 2007

12/10 - 7pm - Here's the Deal...


Just do it. Please. Everyone. Yes, that means you media outlets.

I've just had enough of the inadequacies showing up on the GFS for the past few days. That forecast model is worthless right now. The problem is that the Euro, Canadian, JMA, and whatever else model you can throw at me are predicting a SNOWSTORM (you heard right) on the 15-16th (17th storm for NE US that I've been talking about) for the Louisville area. Right now the GFS is taking the low that is to produce this storm right off the coast into the Atlantic and then blowing it up into a monster. Not gonna happen folks. Nope. Here's why...

  • The NAM is going deeply negative (red lines on bottom graphic): This simply means that there will be higher than normal pressure in the North Atlantic, signaling a shield of sorts to deflect all low pressure to staying within the East Coast, and not going straight out to sea.
  • The GFS (I JUST saw the 18z run when writing this post and it brought the storm back, but placement is still an issue) is still taking the low too far south and making a huge storm in Alabama, which is just not the right solution given the current dry pattern there. The low wouldn't want to infiltrate that dry high down there, instead it would want to skirt along the northern edge, which is just a couple hundred miles north of the GFS forecast location on the 16th.
  • Henry Margusity at Accuweather is actually putting us in the center of a snowfall potential map. He's been pretty good forecasting the recent storms in the Northeast and he's been doing well down this way as well (although there was the storm a couple weekends ago that surprised a lot of people and went north on us, which was a close call to begin with)

(Read Margusity's blog here)
  • John Belski at WAVE-TV is going out on a limb (I'm behind you 100% on this) that we'll see snow on Saturday with this low. He gave the three possible low tracks (out to sea, S. Alabama, and N. Georgia) and said "I see the potential for a snowstorm". In other words, he's the only one in the local TV market calling for this (WDRB is 40 degrees and slight chance of rain/snow, WLKY is mix and snow with 30's, WHAS is cloudy and upper 30's.)
So here's my thinking, let's wait until Thursday and see what the models look like. If we're in the same or similar boat, I'm going to go ahead and call for a storm. Otherwise we'll just see what happens. Throughout the next few days we'll see fluctuations in the models, but overall I think this is the best shot we've had so far at some appreciable snow this season.

Now, shorter range (Don't you just love how I think in reverse-chronological order?)

We will see highs near or at 70 tomorrow with little rain expected. What a deal in December! The saying in Louisville is, "If you don't like the weather today, wait a little bit." That's just a little urban folklore there, but hey, 70's and snowstorms can happen in the same week!

Thursday, December 6, 2007


I thought this was something we wouldn't have to deal with tonight, but this low system has dropped south that is impacting the Midwest. Tonight we will see sleet, freezing rain and snow affect the area until mid-morning tomorrow when we should (in theory) see all precipitation turn to rain with mixed in flurries. Our low tonight will be at or just below freezing which will impact our weather for tomorrow. Downtown it's 34 right now and it's 29 out in the suburbs where I live.

If the temperature holds just below freezing we will see some major problems with the commute tomorrow morning. We'll have accumulated ice and snow (not exceeding 1 inch) on the roads in that scenario. If we stay above freezing, then it'll just be the bridges and overpasses that need watching. Personally, I think we'll see temps hold below freezing in the suburbs and right at freezing in the city. I cannot speculate on school delays for tomorrow morning, but I wouldn't be surprised if I saw some.

We've still got that 17th storm on the GFS! Remember: this is still 11 days away, do not get your hopes up.

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

12/5 - 9:30pm - As Promised...

The clipper last night really didn't sink as far south as I thought, but it was pretty close. Indianapolis got a pretty good shot of snow as expected, but we ended up with almost all rain. Temperatures overnight didn't go below 36, which hampered any snow from developing. That was the general consensus on yesterday's forecasts issued on it, but I thought maybe we would've seen a dusting. Just shows how volatile clippers are.

Now, as promised on my video forecast last Sunday, we're going to look at the long range prospect of some snow. As of now the GFS has a December 17th storm lined up for us, which has been showing up well on the model for a couple days or so now. Some model runs have taken it to more of a rain to snow scenario and others want all snow. And of course the amounts of snow in each model have been all over the board. After a really warm week for next week, I think it'll break in some fashion with cold air and some sort of precipitation. The solution that the GFS offers seems to fit, but of course its on the 17th of November, 12 days away from now. This is just something to keep in your back pocket as you prepare for the holidays and to check in on every few days for the next week until this gets sorted out.

Now for the shorter range, which is wet and warm as we head into next week. Tomorrow will be cold and in the mid-30's again, but we'll rise quickly into the 50's by Saturday with some rain from Friday all the way into Wednesday at least. Temperatures then will range from the lower 50's to 60's. So we're getting a reprieve from all this winter weather for this coming up week. We'll see what the week after holds later on.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

12/4 - 4pm - Clipper Coming!

Sorry about not posting yesterday... The whole Southeastern U.S. AT&T DSL service was out.

Here's the deal folks. There is an Alberta Clipper system coming tonight and tomorrow. This is simply a quick shot of moisture with some cold air coming from the Northeast in Alberta, Canada, hence the name. This does mean we will get some snow tonight.

The amount of snow accumulation will be a coating to nothing, but that's still up in the air. I'm hesitant to go with the National Weather Service's forecast in saying that we won't get any accumulation because the recent GFS models are saying that the moisture is coming further south and the temperatures will hold in the lower 30's. What they're going off of is the NAM model, which pushes any appreciable precipitation into central Indiana and keeps our temperatures a little warmer. These are very hard systems to predict because the low system is weak and is vulnerable to any slight shift in a neighboring air mass, hence the uncertainty in the storm track. It's now in Iowa and looks to be moving towards Indianapolis, which is the forecast track as of now:

(Click picture for animated radar)

One thing I want to note is that there is a secondary area of moisture starting to form on the western side of the system that looks very changeable at the moment. If this area continues to develop at the rate is has been for the past couple hours, I think we may see a little more snow than previously thought. Last year we had a clipper give us a coating (and one that gave us a couple inches the year before) that previously looked as if it would completely miss us. So just stay tuned because this forecast will change by the hour. Now I don't think we'd see more than a couple inches if the forecast track did change dramatically, but it certainly bears watching.

We'll see a pretty good warm-up by the weekend after this system passes.

Saturday, December 1, 2007

12/1 - 10pm - New Forecast Video

It's late, but it's here! I had some technical difficulties today due to the new logo and graphics coming in, but its been resolved now. Happy December 1st, the start of the meteorological winter!