Friday, November 21, 2008

11/21 - 4pm - Messy Long Range

As advertised, the temperature reached a frigid 36 degrees this afternoon for a high. Temperatures will really take a plunge tonight as cloud cover diminishes and high pressure comes into play. Expect a low in the upper teens in the city, with lower teens possible in the outlying areas. Gulf moisture coupled with a low sinking southward from Canada will create some rain for Monday, up to .25" by the HPC's estimates. Things should calm down for for the rest of next week, with temperatures topping out in the 40's and maybe even 50's for Thanksgiving! Expect more rain for Friday and into next weekend.

Looking ahead to the long range shows a very disturbed pattern as we head into December. Multiple disturbances will come through the first week and a possible cold spell could come through the next. With all the storms projected to come through and possible freezing temperatures, I'm eying the second week of December right now for a possible accumulating snow. Nothing tangible has really come out of the GFS yet, but the pattern suggests we could be in for a snow event:



Interestingly enough, this loosely coincides with the winter predictions I gave a few weeks ago. We should see more assurance of this late next week in the models if everything works out. This could be an interesting start to winter!

By the way, here's a link to NOAA's Winter Outlook that was released today.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Shall we agree to disagree? While we look to stay generally cooler than normal for the next 10 days (both the GFS and EURO agree), after that we look to warm up. The extended GFS brings us into more of a westerly flow, which really pics up over the PacNW beyond 10 days. That is generally a pattern that is tough to break down. I agree with the NOAA winter outlook, at least though Christmas. While we may see some backside snow showers, with any front that comes through... I think our chances of a better than 3" snowfall before Chistmas are less than 20%.