Wednesday, December 31, 2008

12/31 - 3:30pm - Come On... Give Me More Moisture!

First of all, the flurries we had this morning were unexpected because they were supposed to occur to our east. The system took a slight westward jog, so we saw some flurries and snow showers before noon. Made for a nice start to the day!

Everything still stands weather-wise from yesterday's post, except for the fact that less moisture will be present for Friday morning's dismal snow shower/flurry activity. Still looks like rain for this weekend as well.

The thing I'm watching right now is this Tuesday storm, which has gone south of us on the models. We're still getting snow, but the north end of the system is moisture-starved. Quite honestly, this is a good thing because the GFS is notorious (at least this season) for putting storms too far south and then making northward corrections just a couple days out. This happened near Thanksgiving when that storm corrected north a couple days beforehand and we saw rain. So, I wouldn't bet on snow for Tuesday yet, but I'd keep watch. I think we'll have a good idea where this thing will go by the weekend. I really hope this won't turn out to be a false positive like the other storms this year, but I'm optimistic given the fact that cooler air is on the way.

Have a wonderful New Year's Eve!

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

12/30 - 7pm - I Like What I See in the Long Range (600th Post!)

What a nice day it was! Highs in the 50s made for another Spring preview day around the region, but don't expect anymore of those for a while. As a disturbance passes well to our north tomorrow, cooler air will filter in. We won't even reach 40 degrees tomorrow, so it's time to get those heavy coats out again, just in time for New Year's Eve! A little snow is possible on Thursday night, but I'm hard pressed to find good moisture to support more a bit of snow shower activity. Any lingering moisture on Friday morning could change to rain.

The next major chance of precipitation happens on Saturday night into Sunday as a low passes to our south. This will most likely be all rain because of warm air coming up from the Gulf. There's a possibility that we could see a brief changeover to snow on the very tail end of this system, but I'm not banking on that with the current moisture allotment on the GFS.

Now, to the good stuff. Over the course of today, the GFS has had an area of low pressure tracking through Central Kentucky on Tuesday, giving us rain with a little snow on the backside. With each consecutive run of the model today (0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z), the track has been shifting eastward. The most current run, the 18z, has this low going far enough east to give us a snowstorm. While this is exciting, I still want to see a consistency before I rest on a snow solution. If the next 0z and 6z models have the track that the 18z had, then I'm game. With so much cold air coming in to the region due to a ridge developing over Greenland, it'll be interesting to see how the models handle this system this week into this weekend. In any case, get ready for the coldest air we've seen in quite some time as that Greenland ridge allows a polar vortex to drop into the Eastern US next week.

Monday, December 29, 2008

12/29 - 1pm - Now That We're Done With the Spring Preview...

If you like sunshine, you're in luck for the next few days. With high pressure dominating until at least Thursday, clouds should be few and far between. After a brief warm-up to the upper 50s tomorrow, more seasonal temperatures in the 40s will set in. I'd say that looks pretty good for New Year's Eve and Day.

A storm system will come through the area on Thursday night and exit on Friday. The potential for snow is there, but I'm not worried about it yet. Temperatures look a bit high and the amount of moisture present would be hard pressed to generate more than a few snow showers. I'm still waiting for more model runs to make sure that we won't see any more moisture, but I don't think we will.

The long range looks very interesting, with much colder weather and plenty of storms coming through the region. This will definitely be a contrast to the Spring preview we had this weekend. While I can't pinpoint exactly when and where a snowstorm will happen, I think we've at least a chance of one around here over the next two weeks. Hold on to your seats folks!

Saturday, December 27, 2008

12/27 - 6:30pm - New Video Forecast

Wow! 71 degrees was our record-breaking high today, but a cold front is on the way to squash those warm temperatures. Expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to come through tonight with a small chance of some strong storms. A Wind ADVISORY is in effect until 5am tomorrow morning. Hold on to your hats!

Friday, December 26, 2008

12/26 - 11:30am - More Wet Weather

I hope everyone had an enjoyable Christmas!

Scattered showers are moving through the area now and should be on the decrease for the next few hours. A slight chance of a shower exists for tonight, but Saturday night will be the best chance for significant rain. A line of potentially severe thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon, affecting mainly areas in Missouri and Arkansas. As the night falls and this line heads east, it should weaken and give us mostly rain with a few claps of thunder on Saturday night.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be very warm for this time of year. Today will see a high near 63 and tomorrow could go higher than 70 degrees! If we shoot past 69 tomorrow, we'll break a record.

Obviously this is not the time to be talking snow when temperatures are this high. We've been stuck with this ridge here in the southeast while a trough out west is producing cold weather and snow out there (remember when Las Vegas got snow last week?). I think we're experiencing an early version of the January thaw that many climatic forecasts back in the fall were predicting. The GFS has been pretty consistent in showing the return of cold air and at least a little bit of snow in the long range, but I'm not impressed with the strength of the trough it wants to give us. Its early to be talking specifics about any of this, but I think more seasonal weather will come back into the area in a couple weeks, if not earlier.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

12/24 - 11am - A Wet Christmas Eve

Merry Christmas Eve everyone! Heavier rain is on the way as the tail end of this system approaches the area today. A Wind ADVISORY is in effect until 4pm this afternoon as gusts up to 40mph are expected as this storm passes. As promised, Christmas Day will be dry with a high in the mid 40s.

Beyond Christmas, we could see some troubling weather. The GFS is bringing a line of severe thunderstorms (yes, you read that correctly) through the area ahead of a pretty powerful cold front on Saturday. With good shear, high dewpoints, and a potent source of lift, this could be a pretty widespread severe event. The SPC has outlined an area that will be affected by this event, which does not include us right now. We might be in there in the next outlook based upon what I'm seeing in the models, but let's see what happens.

In the long range, the return of the fabled eastern trough is imminent. We've been warm due to the southeast ridge that has dominated over the past couple weeks. If the models are correct, the return of cold air and chances for snow should arrive mid-way through the first week of January.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

12/23 - 11:30am - Freezing Rain ADVISORY

If you've been outside this morning, some of you may have noticed a light coating of sleet on your front porch or driveway. More sleet and freezing rain is on the way for this afternoon as moisture comes into the area from the west with warmer temperatures aloft. Accumulations will be light, so the National Weather Service has issued a Freezing Rain ADVISORY. Since we're already holding at around 30 degrees in Louisville, I expect any precipitation to change to plain rain later this afternoon. This should be all said and done before nightfall with few travel problems, if any. Temperatures will be heading higher during the overnight hours, so another changeover to frozen precipitation is not expected tonight.

I hate to say it, but we have nearly 2 inches of rain on the way according to the HPC. This will fall from tonight until tomorrow night, leaving Christmas Day clear and sunny. This scenario verifies on both the GFS and NAM, so I'm confident we won't see any surprise rain on Christmas morning.

Monday, December 22, 2008

12/22 - 8pm - A Little Bit of Ice on the Way

Its 11 degrees at my house now, with 19 at the airport. Other suburban stations are reporting temperatures of 12 to 14 degrees right now. That right there shows the heat island effect in action, with the concrete and buildings near the airport and downtown driving the temperature up a few degrees.

As we warm up tomorrow, we could see some freezing rain in the early afternoon. Latest indications show that this shouldn't be a problem because we will get above freezing by late afternoon, turning any frozen precipitation to rain and melting any light accumulations of ice. Rain will continue for Wednesday and should taper off late that night. Expect sunny skies and a high in the mid 40s for Christmas Day. While we can't get a white Christmas, at least it will stop raining!

Sunday, December 21, 2008

12/21 - 4pm - No White Christmas, But an Icy Tuesday?

While we won't be lucky enough to experience a white Christmas, winter weather isn't taking a break. As our rain system for Christmas Eve enters the area on Tuesday, temperatures will be below freezing. This could cause some icing issues if it doesn't warm above freezing as fast as the models say it will. I think we'll definitely see a little bit of sleet and freezing rain on Tuesday afternoon with warm air entering the upper levels, but I'm not certain how long that will last. If we warm slowly at the surface on Tuesday, we're in for an icy mess. If we warm quickly throughout the afternoon, we'll switch to liquid rain before the evening with little or no problems around the area. We'll just have to wait and see how this system treats us on Tuesday. In any case, we should be completely switched over to liquid rain by late Tuesday and into Wednesday (Christmas Eve).

Also, today is the first day of Winter! With a temperature of 22 in the city and winds making it feel even colder, it's sure making its presence known. After checking the latest runs of the GFS and NAM models, we're set for what looks to be the coldest night in quite some time. I think the Louisville Metro will see a low of 8 tonight, but the suburbs could get a couple degrees lower. Regardless of air temperature, wind chills will assuredly be below zero, so bundle up! Expect a repeat of today's weather for tomorrow, with a little less wind.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

12/20 - 5:15pm - New Video Forecast

Downright frigid temperatures are on the way once a cold front passes through late tonight. Unfortunately a ridge will build in here for Christmas, meaning our precipitation on Christmas Eve will be all rain.

Friday, December 19, 2008

12/19 - 5pm - Windy and Wild

We reached a high of 69 this afternoon, which is most certainly rare for this time of year. A Wind Advisory is currently in effect and winds gusted up to 40mph earlier this afternoon. We should see winds die down as and temperatures drop throughout the evening (we're already down over 10 degrees from where we were around 1pm).

Temperatures will top out near 50 tomorrow with a little bit of rain in the afternoon and a bit of light snow in the evening. As we dive below freezing for a high on Sunday, a few flurries are possible. We'll be below freezing for Monday as well, but we'll rise to the mid 30's for Tuesday.

The GFS is really pumping in some warm air for Christmas Eve and it looks like we'll see heavy rain. Oh no! The rain should be out of here by Christmas Day. This is far from being set in stone, but I haven't seen anything to convince me that this area of low pressure will go south and give us a white Christmas. I'll keep watching, but I'm not optimistic for snow at this point.

Meanwhile, a nasty winter storm is causing havoc in the Midwest and Northeast. Cities like Chicago and New York are having problems with cancelled flights and heavy snow... click here to read more.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

12/18 - 6pm - It's 6 Days Away, But I Can Smell Rain Already

First off, rain is on the radar and on the way. We'll see at least a few showers tonight and possibly some heavier rain early tomorrow morning and into the afternoon hours as well. Lighter rain returns for Saturday afternoon, and could end as some snow showers on the backside of the system on Sunday morning. Temperatures near 50 for Friday and Saturday should cease as the cold front comes through, with a high near 30 for Sunday. Frigid temperatures will continue for next week.

On to the elephant in the room, the possibility of snow for Christmas. The latest model runs of the GFS have been utterly disappointing with mostly rain, if not all rain, for the whole Christmas Eve system. This trend started on the 18z run last night, as I alluded to in the last post, and is rearing its ugly head in all runs today. The Louisville NWS office is unsure of what to call for in their forecast discussion in terms of precipitation type, but they do keep temperatures cold and the precipitation type as snow on their 7-day forecast. I admire how they're sticking to their guns on this one, so maybe we still have some hope. We're 6 days out and model accuracy at this point downright stinks for complex low systems like this. I'd give this some time before I lose all hope, but just know that things are on a downswing at the moment for a white Christmas.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

12/17 - 8pm - White Christmas?

We barely got above freezing today, and that happened in the wee hours of this morning! Things stayed quite cold with dreary cloud cover. Expect some fog tonight and into tomorrow morning. We should top 40 tomorrow and soar to near 60 on Friday!

By Friday, we'll see a storm system come through with a considerable amount of rain. That should exit the area by Friday night. As yet another low pressure system makes its way through north of the area, we'll see more rain for Saturday evening and into Sunday.

That system over the weekend will usher in some very cold air... you know where this is going... and could make way for a snowstorm on Christmas Eve. You may say, "but Ryan you messed up yesterday's snow prediction, how the heck can you expect to forecast snow this far out!?" The answer to that lies in the size of the storm. Yesterday's area of snow was only 20-30 miles wide, and went south of us at the very last minute. This storm will be a monster in comparison, so more areas are likely to get snow, meaning a decrease in forecasting error as well.

The 18z GFS gave us a rain event, but the 12z and the 6z all agreed that this would be a snow-centered storm. The NWS is already calling for snow in their 7-day forecast, so that gives me a little more confidence. The 18z worried me about this being a "Great Lakes Cutter," meaning a storm where the low cuts north to the Great Lakes and keeps snow west of the area. But if I recall correctly, the 18z runs have not been reliable this season, especially for yesterday's storm. So I think we can throw out that model run unless that low track comes up on the oz tonight.

In any case, we haven't had a Christmas with decent snow on the ground since 2004. If we can stay the course with a low pressure track south of us, I think we're in good shape. At this point, I'll call this a chance for snow and nothing else. I don't want to call this one too early... a busted Christmas snowstorm forecast would cause an angry mob (the city of Louisville) to come after me!

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

12/16 - 6:30pm - Was That a Hole on the Radar?

It was indeed a sad morning for snow lovers as everyone woke up to just a little bit of sleet. I recognized a trend southward trend in this storm starting around 10pm last night, but I figured it would correct itself. Add to that the fact that we had precipitation coming northeast from Owensboro that dissipated before it got here and then reformed in Oldham County. The result was what looked like a hole in the storm, right over the Louisville Metro. Both of these items led to the demise of the storm in the immediate Jefferson County area, but areas near Elizabethtown and Frankfort made out with around 4 to 5 inches of snow because of this. We only got a dusting of snow and a brief period of sleet and freezing rain last night and this morning.

We're pretty much done with this storm, with only a trace amount of freezing rain left to fall. We'll clear out the precipitation, but not the clouds tomorrow. Highs should range in the mid 30s. A round of thunderstorms could come through on Thursday night and Friday as a reinforcing shot of cold air comes in. We'll see yet another rollercoaster of temperatures for the end of the week, with 55 on Friday and then mid 40s on Saturday.

I'll keep my eyes peeled on the computer models to see if we can get any REAL snow in here, snowlovers. For those who despise the flakes, you're in luck for the next few days.

Monday, December 15, 2008

12/15 - 10pm - Winter Weather Update Video

Took a little while to finally get it uploaded, but here it is!

12/15 - 6:30pm - Snow Map

I'll make a video after dinner going over the whole situation and what my thoughts are. For now, here's a snow map:

12/15 - 4:15 - We've Just Begun - WINTER STORM WARNING

I want to express my condolences to those who expected a half day of school and did not get one today. Colder air did not filter in until this afternoon, so our rain stayed liquid. That's making the evening commute much more enjoyable, so that's definitely a good thing!

The newest NAM model (18z) is really putting down some heavy precipitation here for later tonight into early tomorrow morning. I'd say 2-4 inches of snow on top of .25" or more of ice based on what I'm seeing. In terms of school cancellations tomorrow... they are possible. They'll make a decision early tomorrow morning based on what we actually get. All I have to say is that conditions will be bad until at least the noon hour. The WINTER STORM WARNING has been extended to 7pm tomorrow night as well.

For right now... there is an area of freezing rain and/or sleet moving east from Evansville. This should hit here sometime between 5 and 6pm tonight:

Expect a majority of the snow to fall after midnight, with sleet or freezing rain possibly mixed in.
Winter Storm Warning issued, starts at 12pm today. Will post when school is over.

Sunday, December 14, 2008


After a couple model runs, I'm convinced we'll see sleet, freezing rain, and snow tomorrow afternoon and night. The GFS and NAM both backed off on this in their 18z runs, but the brand new 0z run of the NAM has brought a majority of the precipitation back. I'm awaiting word from the NWS in Louisville as to whether we'll have an advisory issued tomorrow or a full-blown Winter Storm Warning. Either way, I still think we're in for up to .25" of ice with up to an inch of snow on top by Tuesday morning.

As far as early dismissals for schools tomorrow, I think it'll be a close call. The NWS says it'll be below 32 after 5pm, but we could see an earlier drop in temperature if this cold front accelerates. That'll be interesting to watch over the next 12 hours. For Tuesday, If we do get up to .25" of ice, I'm expecting quite a few school cancellations and delays.

12/14 - 11am - WINTER STORM WATCH

A WINTER STORM WATCH has been posted for the area for tomorrow night:

Based on the current model runs, I think we'll see rain change to freezing rain and sleet by Monday afternoon. We should see all snow by late on Monday, but the damage will be done at that point. I'm thinking a quarter inch of ice will accumulate with another half inch to an inch of snow on top of that by Tuesday morning. Travel will be very hazardous if this pans out. With regards to school delays and cancellations, I think there will be many of those Tuesday morning and a few possible early dismissals on Monday IF temperatures fall below freezing in the early to mid afternoon. We'll see how that goes.

Currently, the HPC has us on the fence between a SLIGHT and MODERATE risk for .25" of ice on Monday:

Saturday, December 13, 2008

12/13 - 8pm - New Video Forecast

I'll put this out there right now, Tuesday morning could have some major problems from this ice event. It should turn back to rain by Tuesday afternoon, but I think we're in for a messy 18 hours from Monday night until midday Tuesday. I'll post more on this later when more data becomes available.

Friday, December 12, 2008

12/12 - 8pm - Uh Oh.... Next Week Could Be Messy

I've been giving my two cents on this potential ice storm early next week for the last day or so, but I'm sorry to say that things have really gotten to a fever pitch in the last 24 hours. The GFS has been consistent, almost to the point of being scary, with this storm today. The NAM has differences in timing, temperatures, and precipitation amounts with both prior runs and the GFS. The potential playbook from the 18z GFS goes like this:

Rain creeps into the area on Sunday night and sticks around for Monday...

Cold air starts to creep into the lower levels on Monday night, producing sleet or freezing rain...

Colder air starts to filter into the upper levels as well, giving us a complete changeover to snow on early Tuesday morning, mixing with more sleet or freezing rain by the afternoon...

Then we warm up for Wednesday and we get a little more liquid rain. Sound complicated? You bet! I thought the crew at the Louisville NWS office summed it up best this afternoon:


Here a couple of key things to remember: 1) We're still 3 days from the start of this system, multiple things can happen in the models. 2) A slight change in temperature in the upper levels (namely 850mb) could make this a more snow-centered event, a nasty ice storm, or mostly rain. 3) It looks like we will go way above freezing by Wednesday, so we'll only see major problems for 48 hours tops if this occurs.

I wish I could speculate on accumulations at this time, but with the uncertainty in the sleet/freezing rain department, I just can't. If we get more mixed precipitation, snow amounts will be low, but ice accumulations could be an issue. It's the same way if we flip the two. I'll go into this tomorrow on the video forecast. Hopefully the models overnight can shed some more light on this situation.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

12/11 - 4:45pm - A Mixed Bag

While we didn't see any problems with frozen precipitation last night, portions of Eastern Kentucky were issued a Winter Weather Advisory and still remain under one. We could see a little bit of drizzle or freezing rain before midnight, but I'm more concerned about temperatures diving into the 20s with possibly wet roads. Be careful out there late tonight into tomorrow morning.

With high pressure coming back into the area, our weekend is shaping up to be very nice. Saturday and Sunday should be in the mid 40's and mid 50's respectively, with some clouds. Another system will come through early next week and stick around for most of the week. This system will be mostly rain, but it has the potential to bring frozen precipitation to our area on Tuesday. I say frozen precipitation because upper air temperatures (850mb) could be a little above freezing, causing freezing rain and/or sleet. If we can stay below freezing up there, we're go for snow. Again, as always, its too early to tell and we're fairly close to the freezing line.

Even though we didn't get any snow last night, New Orleans, LA and parts of Mississippi sure did. It amazes me how far south they are to get so much snow! Up to 8 inches of snow is possible in parts of Mississippi tonight... click here for more details.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

12/10 - 7:15pm - Storm Shifting West... FREEZING RAIN

This has just come up over the last 12 hours, but the storm system I told you about yesterday is beginning to shift this way. Right now it looks like we're in for some freezing rain tonight and tomorrow morning as surface temperatures dip below freezing and upper air temps stay a little above. If this system were to shift further west or temperatures drop more, which is possible, we could be dealing with a full-on snow storm. Yikes!

Here's what got my attention earlier today:

This map shows that we're under a SLIGHT Risk for 4 or more inches of snow tonight. This area has shifted quite a bit west from last night's predictions, and there's no telling how much further we could go in the next few model runs. Here's the latest from our local NWS office:


Obviously the last sentence could very well play out, even if we just get freezing rain tonight. Our surface temperature in Louisville is 36 right now, so we still need a few more degrees before we hit the magic 32.

My take on this right now is that we will see a little bit of freezing rain overnight and tomorrow morning. If we see even the slightest shift west in this system, then we're in for more than that. I'll keep a watch on it and post if anything more develops.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

12/9 - 3:45pm - Buckets of Rain!

My rain gauge is reading .91" of rain since midnight and we're not even close to being done yet. The rain has caused many traffic problems on the roadways, especially on the interstates this afternoon. Be careful if you're going out in the next few hours; the roads are wet and visibility is low. As this system exits tomorrow, we could see a little snow or sleet in the morning, so be aware of that.

The GFS is still taking a small area of moisture up through Eastern Kentucky on Thursday with some possible snow to our east. The 12z run is bugging me because it shifted this area slightly west and temperatures will be at or just below freezing during the passage of this moisture. I still think it will be too far east for this to be of any significance to us, but I'll keep my eye on later runs to see if it trends any further west.

After this little system moves through, expect some warming with highs near 50 for this weekend. We'll be even warmer next week, and I think we'll see the cold air build back in sometime before or on Christmas. December has been below normal for temperatures so far, so a week or so of some warm weather will balance this out. Patience snow lovers... we're still a little early for any heavy snow in this part of the country.

Monday, December 8, 2008

12/8 - 4pm - What a Warm Up!

We barely got above freezing yesterday, had a little freezing rain this morning, and now its 50 degrees! Wow! Temperatures are going to really ramp up as a cold front approaches on Tuesday into Wednesday, possibly up to 60 by tomorrow afternoon. I know it says 45 on the 7-day forecast at, but this warm up has really been coming into the models just over the past 36 hours. What a nice treat for December!

If you're the snow-loving type, then this is not good news for you. We're going to see buckets of rain from tonight into Wednesday, possibly over 2 inches. If the system tracks north, we could see even more than that. As the rain tapers off on Wednesday, we could see a few snow showers or flurries, but that's about it.

There's an area of low pressure that will drive north from the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and its possible that we could see some snow from it. Its debatable as to whether it will go east or west of the Appalachian Mountains at this point, which will ultimately decide if we get snow. We would want it to go west in this case, but not too far west. Temperatures could also be a problem as we're going to be right on the freezing line according to the GFS. I honestly think this system will be a dud for us and go too far east, but let's see what happens.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

12/6 - 4:15pm - New Forecast Video

The snow has tapered off for the day and temperatures are now getting above freezing. Expect some rain next week, and could we get some snow next weekend? We'll see!

Friday, December 5, 2008

12/5 - 4pm - Frigid Temps Around the Area

Sorry for all the late posts this week... it's been crazy around here! I promise to have a video forecast by tomorrow afternoon. There was no video forecast last weekend due to my being out of town.

The low in Louisville Metro was 19 degrees this morning and it really did feel that cold! We're only at 29 degrees right now, so not too much increase in temperature occurred at all today. We'll stay in the 30's for the weekend, with a possible flurry or snow shower tomorrow night. We're still on track for our rain/snow mix on Monday night through Wednesday. The models are still warm on this, so I'm thinking little or no accumulation in the periods of snow that we do see during that time frame. It still looks pretty cold for the rest of next week after Thursday and well into the week after. If we're going to get some snow, I'd wager on some within that cold period sometime. Still too early to say exactly when and how.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

12/4 - 10pm - It's Cold Now and We're Just Getting Started

It is going to be downright frigid for tomorrow as our temperatures won't get much above freezing. We're still on for some snow showers on Saturday, but the big question is early next week.

There are some foreign forecast models (Euro, etc.) that have been saying we could get one mighty snowstorm on Tuesday-Wednesday, but I don't buy it. From what I see, we're going to be too warm for this. I like the local NWS office forecast of some possible snow on Tuesday night, but the rest would be rain. The low pressure track seems to be going in the right direction for us to get this "mighty" storm, but our surface temps won't cut it. Unless there's a correction in the US models that would bring in a colder batch of air, I'm going to stick with mostly rain on this one. We got burned last week when we had a storm on the GFS for us, and then it got too warm on subsequent runs. The Euro and other foreign models continued to show a snowstorm for a couple more runs than the GFS, so I'm going to assume this is a similar situation. It does concern me that the low track would indicate a good batch of precipitation and that the freezing line is not too far off, so we'll just have to watch for any changes.

Speaking of next week, get ready for some really cold air after the front associated with that Tuesday-Wednesday system goes through. Highs could struggle to get into the 30's after Thursday, so get out your big jackets if you haven't done so already! I think this cold air could support a snowstorm for us and the GFS agrees, so keep in mind that we could be dealing with accumulations after next weekend.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

12/3 - 9pm - Rain Coming Through Now, A Little Snow Later

Doppler Plus is showing the rain that's coming through the area as we speak:

As the cold front associated with this rain comes through tonight, we may have a few flurries or snow showers in the early morning hours. Little or no accumulation is expected. Watch out on the bridges and overpasses tomorrow morning as temperatures could hit or go below freezing tonight.

This front will leave us cold and dry through the weekend, with highs only in the 30s. A few sprinkles or snow showers will make their way into the area by Saturday as a clipper (low pressure from Canada) passes to our north.

Rain looks likely for Tuesday and Wednesday, with the possibility of some wet snow on the backside of this system. Too much warm air will accompany the front for any good snow, but I think we could see a brief period of snow as low pressure wraps around and heads up to the Northeast.

I've said this a few times over the last few days and I think we're starting to see the fruition of it on the models. Cold, very cold air is getting ready to sit on us from Canada and storms are ripe and ready to ride along the southern edge of that trough. The GFS is throwing major hints that we could see something late next weekend. I won't go into date or amount specifics, but with all this cold air coming and storms riding the southern edge, I'm inclined to think we could see an accumulating snow within the next couple weeks. We'll see if this can hold up on the models for the next few days.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

12/2 - 7pm - A Short Warm Up

We're in for a treat tomorrow as highs soar into the lower 50s. Rain should come into the area by nightfall and will end as a brief period of snow showers by the early morning hours. No accumulation is expected tonight. This front will really put a cap on our temperatures over the next few days, with highs in the 30s from Thursday to Sunday. A few flurries or snow showers are possible by Saturday as a clipper system passes to our north, but shouldn't pose a chance of accumulation.

Rain will again enter the forecast by Monday with highs back in the 40s. It still looks like we'll see an active pattern starting in a little over a week from now, so get ready for the drama of accumulating snow in the forecast.

Monday, December 1, 2008

12/1 - 4:30pm - A Few More Snow Showers, Meteorological Winter

Welcome to the first day of meteorological winter! Even though astronomical winter starts on December 22nd, meteorologists consider this day the start of Winter due to the winter-like weather we get in the Northern Hemisphere around this time. And boy did we get some today!

It was one of those moments in multiple classrooms across Kentuckiana where someone would suddenly shout, "It's SNOWING!!!" Much to the dismay of most, the snow did not stick because we were well below freezing when it started falling at 12:30 this afternoon in the downtown area. What appears to be the last batch of snow showers is coming out of Indiana as we speak and they should arrive in the next hour or so. We're still at 36 degrees, so even a dusting looks out of the question at this point. I thought we would've at least seen a coating of snow on the grass this morning in the Metro, but the temperature only bottomed out at 35.

If you don't like the cold air that came with this system, don't worry. We'll warm up into the lower 40's tomorrow and shoot for lower 50's on Wednesday with some rain. That rain could end as a period of snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We'll drop back into the 30's for Thursday and into the weekend as well. A few snow showers could be around for Saturday and Sunday as a clipper system passes to our north.

Stay tuned... we're going into an active pattern starting next week. Too early to predict any one storm at the moment, but I think we'll have our hands full for the next few weeks trying to decipher the track of each.