Friday, October 31, 2008

10/31 - 6:15pm - Happy Halloween!

I hope everyone has a great Halloween this evening! As you and the little ones scatter about the neighborhood tonight, not a bit of precipitation will fall and we should be in the 50's and 60's for most of the night.

The weekend and most of next week looks just as good, with temperatures still in the lower 70's and a chance of rain late in the week. Temperatures will tumble into the 50's by Friday as a potent cold front sweeps through. Enjoy the warm weather while you can!

Tomorrow evening I'll put out a special winter-weather preview forecast video. I'll go over various winter forecasts from the government, commercial outlets, and even the almanacs! Taking all this information into account plus more background data, I'll also give my two cents on what I think will happen. Should be a lot of fun!

Thursday, October 30, 2008

10/30 - 8pm - 70s are BACK!

After some chilly weather this week, upper 60s and even lower 70s are making a comeback in the forecast! Expect us to top out at 70 tomorrow with sunny skies. Highs around 68-72 should hold for the weekend and well into next week. The change up will occur late next week as a cold front sweeps through the east and wipes out our 70s. Rain chances should head upward as this front passes as well.

The Halloween forecast for tomorrow looks spook-tacular, with dry conditions and that 70 degree high I talked about.

The first October snow since 1934 has hit London, England... click here. This begs the question: How wild will our winter be? Find out on Saturday evening when I present a special winter-preview forecast video!

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

10/29 - 5:30pm - Shaking Off the Cold

We got down to a low of 34 in the city this morning, just shy of the freezing mark. Temperatures fell into the 20's in the suburbs. It'll be cold again tonight, but not as cold as what we saw last night. Temperatures will creep back into the 60's tomorrow, with upper 60's and maybe even 70 for the weekend and even into next week! Next rain chance will be sometime around November 6th, so don't worry about any precipitation ruining Halloween.

With snow in the Northeast, we're sure lucky to have such nice weather! We'll eventually get our snow, just not this early. On that note, I'm planning to have some long-range winter forecasts on my video this Saturday, so stay tuned for that!

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

10/28 - 4:30pm - Freeze!

The NWS is pulling out all the stops by issuing a Freeze WARNING for the area tonight. The low in the city should bottom out at just below 32, but again, the outer suburbs and rural areas will experience an even deeper freeze. With clearing skies tonight into tomorrow morning, I think we will definitely get below freezing in the suburbs. The city is close at this point, but I think the temperature will dip low enough tonight.

Things will improve to the upper 50's tomorrow, with a low in the upper 30's for Thursday morning. We'll see lower 60's for Thursday and a gorgeous day in the upper 60's for Halloween. How about that! Looks like we'll keep the upper 60's around next week, as I promised in the forecast on Saturday, and possibly touch 70. Still not a drop of rain to be found until at least the second week of November!

Monday, October 27, 2008

10/27 - 8pm - Wind, Sleet, and Cold Temperatures

There have been calls in to various news outlets around town of sleet falling this afternoon and evening. With surface temperatures in the upper 40's and well below freezing at the upper levels, this is certainly feasible. I saw a few rain drops today, but no sleet in my neck of the woods.

Winds were a problem last night as the cold front came through, causing a very small amount of homes to lose power. I peeked at our anemometer display at around 11pm and it recorded a gust of 44 mph!

The Freeze WATCH is still on for early tomorrow morning, but with the current cloud cover I think we might make it out of the woods just above freezing. Rural areas might make it below freezing, but we'll see. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be the coldest of this well-advertised chill. Downtown will probably drop below freezing along with the almost certain freeze in the suburbs. Things should warm up a few degrees for Thursday morning.

Still no moisture to talk about in the forecast, but temperatures will be making a return to the warmer side of things. After a chilly high of around 46 tomorrow, expect temperatures to rise to the mid 50's on Wednesday. Lower 60's will dominate for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Keep the gloves and jackets handy the next couple mornings!

Sunday, October 26, 2008

10/26 - 6pm - Freeze WATCH

While many of us in outer suburbs and rural areas have already experienced temperatures below freezing this month, it's finally time for everybody to get a freeze. Most of the city will stay just above freezing at 35 degrees tonight. Outer suburbs and rural areas will assuredly fall below freezing tonight.

Tomorrow night is when everybody will fall below freezing, prompting the NWS to issue a Freeze WATCH for the area. Tuesday night will have about the same low temperature, but Wednesday night will be a little warmer, limiting the freezing temperatures to areas away from the city. Highs will hover around 50 for the next couple of days with no rain in sight.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

10/25 - 4pm - New Forecast Video

It looks like there won't be any flurries on Monday morning due to a lack of moisture. Nevertheless, it will be very cold for several mornings next week.

Friday, October 24, 2008

10/24 - 5pm - Drying Out

It's been a dreary, wet day for the area as over an inch of rain fell. We received .92" of rain here, but readings of over an inch have been recorded in town and at the airport. Its safe to say that this is the last rain we'll see for quite a while, as the models all show a dry week ahead with high pressure in control. Looks dry for the week after as well at this point.

We're still on track for the flurries on Monday morning. The NAM doesn't have the moisture like yesterday, but at least the temperatures are markedly colder than yesterday's runs for Monday morning. The GFS is staying fairly consistent with temperature, but it's been off and on with moisture on the last few runs. Either way, we'll have cold mornings next week and the possibility of some flurries early Monday morning.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

10/23 - 7:30pm - Bring the Umbrella Along!

Tomorrow is the day that you will need the umbrella. Rain from a cold front to our west will overspread the area tonight and last into tomorrow evening. It should be all said and done by early evening tomorrow, with over an inch of rain expected around the area according to the HPC. I hope everyone enjoyed the high of 73 today, because tomorrow will only reach into the mid 50's. We'll recover to near 60 by Sunday, but it looks downhill after that. Temperatures will stay in the lower to middle 50's for next week, with possible 40 degree temperatures looming the week after.

All the hoopla about some snow flurries next week that I talked about is apparently looking more and more valid. The GFS is showing very cold mornings in the 30's on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week. With a small chunk of moisture coming through on Monday morning, it looks as though we will actually get a few flurries around the area. It will be too warm for any accumulation, but temperatures aloft will definitely be cold enough to generate snow. The NAM has even more moisture than the GFS on Monday morning, but it doesn't have any snow due to higher temperatures on that model. The DGEX model looks like the NAM, but temperatures are cold enough to support snow. I'm disregarding the amount of snow on these models at this point because a couple of them look too high, but we'll see. There may be additional flurries on Tuesday or Wednesday morning as well, but we'll have to wait for additional model runs. At any rate, there will not be any accumulation. At least its fun to think about!

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

10/21 - 6pm - Frost?

It looks like areas outside of Downtown Louisville and the large suburbs will see a frost tonight, especially east of town. Since I live in a valley in a rural part of Jefferson County (yes, there is a rural part), we'll probably get some frost. This goes for Fisherville, parts of Middletown and Eastwood as well. We'll hit 60 tomorrow and be in the upper 60's for Thursday. The rain starts Friday and will stay around until Saturday night, with amounts of an inch or higher once its all said and done. We'll be in the 50's this weekend and for much if not all of next week.

No snowflakes on the last few runs of the GFS for next week, but it will still be very cold in the mornings. Expect lows to be at or just below freezing a few days next week.

Monday, October 20, 2008

10/20 - 5pm - Don't Get Used to This!

It's 70 degrees right now, but enjoy it while you can! Highs will be dipping into the low 60's for the remainder of the week with upper 50's possible for the weekend. The rain for late Thursday into early Saturday is still on track, and rain totals look pretty high compared to what we've seen lately. After that, we're dry until Tuesday.

At that point a low should swing through the Great Lakes and with it comes some frigid air on the backside. The 6z and 12z GFS models today both show the same flurries I talked about yesterday for next Wednesday morning. As we get closer to time next week I think we'll be able to pin down whether or not this will actually happen. Its just too far away right now to really see what will occur, especially since model precision is very low at 204 hours out. Who knows? Maybe we'll actually get some flurries in late October!

Sunday, October 19, 2008

10/19 - 7:30pm - Snowflakes on the GFS!?

I just about fell out of my seat when I saw the 12z GFS this afternoon. While the 18z run took them away, the 12z had some snowflakes in the forecast for us! Obviously next Tuesday into Wednesday is quite a ways away, and this is probably just a rogue model run at this point. It also had Tuesday morning and Thursday morning as having some flakes as well, but just not as prominently as Wednesday morning. I know this is just a "snow-dream" at this point, but isn't it fun to think about?

Back in the real weather world... It looks like we could see some highs in the 50's on Friday and Saturday after a week generally in the 60's. Tomorrow will be an improvement over today in terms of temperatures, with a high possibly touching or going just above 70 degrees. We're still on track for the late week rain that I talked about yesterday as well.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

10/18 - 12:30pm - New Video Forecast

Looks like a pretty chilly week ahead with a good chance of rain late week.

Friday, October 17, 2008

10/17 - 8:30pm - Quite Chilly!

Sorry about not posting yesterday... one of those heavy homework days.

I just can't believe how fast we went from being warm to downright chilly! I donned my first pair of bluejeans for the season and boy did I need them. We'll stay in the 60's all next week, save for a possible 70's high early in the week. The next chance of any appreciable rain will occur late next week with a decent-sized low pressure area ramming through the Midwest.

With all this cool weather, who's ready for snow? It's hard to imagine now, but we're a little over a month away from seeing our possible first flakes and a couple months from measurable snow. Here's a useful map on the average dates of the first measurable snow in Kentucky each year:

From the Kentucky Climate Center at WKU.

Don't forget that you can sign up for severe weather e-mail alerts at These e-mails also include notification of when I post video updates for winter weather situations as well (click here for a sample), so sign up today!

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

10/15 - 4pm - Storms on Radar, Omar Strengthens

Our rain for tonight is pushing through Missouri right now and on its way. We'll see rain tonight and tomorrow morning, with a few claps of thunder here and there. After its all said and done, this system will leave us in the 60's for the rest of the week and this weekend. The dry weather will recommence as well.

Hurricane Omar strengthened quite a bit more than expected and will now hit the Virgin Islands head-on as a possible Category 2 storm. It won't pose a threat to land after it exists the Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands corridor, but this sudden strengthening was a bit of a surprise.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

10/14 - 4:30pm - Rain Chances, TS Omar

I was surprised to see that the NAM took our rain chances and ran with them, so it looks like we'll have a pretty good chance of rain on late Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS is not as aggressive, but nevertheless is a little more optimistic than yesterday. The HPC is calling for around a quarter of an inch of rain, so not too much rain for the places that still need it. Say goodbye to the 80 degree weather after tomorrow!

Tropical Storm Omar has just been named, south of Puerto Rico. It will become a hurricane, but it will only affect the Caribbean as a weak hurricane. The forecast track takes it over the Mid-Atlantic, so no big problems after it exits the Caribbean:

Tropical Depression 16 has formed south of the Yucatan Peninsula (the area I talked about yesterday), but it expected to quickly head west into Mexico as a tropical storm.

Monday, October 13, 2008

10/13 - 8pm - Here Comes the Cool Down!

More pleasant weather is on the way for tomorrow, with some clouds and 85 degrees. A small chance of rain creeps into the forecast for what now looks like Wednesday through Friday, with highs in the 60's by Friday after a gradual cool-down. With high pressure becoming the dominant feature, this weekend should be sunny with highs in the upper 60's.

Tropical Depression Nana is spinning in the Atlantic with winds at 35mph. Its not expected to affect land and will most likely die out this week. An area of disturbed weather south of Cuba could become a tropical depression within the next couple of days and head northward. We'll keep an eye on that in case it wants to become a late-season storm. Hurricane season officially ends November 30th.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

10/12 - 7:15pm - Still Warm, NWA is in Town!

I still can't believe how warm it is right now. We'll be in the mid 80's until Tuesday it now looks like with the chance of showers on Wednesday still on. Our storm chance on Friday has all but fallen off the computer models, so I think we'll actually be dry on Friday now with a small chance of a passing shower. Get ready for 60's and 70's late week after a few days of cooling.

The National Weather Association is holding their annual meeting in Louisville this week. Hundreds of meteorologists from around the nation have descended upon Louisville, including The Weather Channel's Dr. Greg Forbes, WGN's Tom Skilling, Good Morning America's Sam Champion, and many more. John Gordon, the head of Louisville's NWS office, is the chairperson for this year.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

10/11 - 12pm - New Forecast Video

Looks like a pretty warm week ahead with a couple shots of rain thrown in.

Friday, October 10, 2008

10/10 - 4:15pm - Warm Weather Continues

I am in disbelief that its 82 degrees outside in the middle of October. We're even going to reach into the mid 80's this weekend and even into Monday. We'll see more seasonable temperatures by Tuesday with the return of the 70's and maybe 60's midweek. A chance of rain still exists from Tuesday into Wednesday.

Big snowstorm in the Rockies today and into the weekend... click here.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

10/9 - 4:30pm - Foggy!

It was surreal getting out of bed this morning and not being able to see the house across the street. The fog that developed last night stayed around until mid morning in some locations. There's only a few instances where I can remember fog being that thick at my house, so this was definitely out of the ordinary.

Temperatures are still expected to soar into the mid 80's by Sunday with a cool-down into the 70's expected by early next week. There's still a chance of showers in the forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The website is now working after being unreachable yesterday for a majority of the day. Hopefully the servers at my hosting service will stay afloat for a while.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

10/8 - 7:15pm - Back in Town, Website Down

I checked my site and blog a couple times during my vacation to make sure they were in working condition. To my horror, my website was out when I got home from school this afternoon! After checking around, I found out that my hosting service is experiencing a miniature crisis with servers down at the moment. They're saying the problem should be fixed very soon. Let's hope so!

In other news, we've seen quite a bit of rain today. My gauge at home shows .63" of rain since midnight, with likely higher amounts around the area. Fog will be a problem tonight and early tomorrow morning with all this moist air dropping in temperature. We will soar into the 80's for the weekend after a day in the upper 70's tomorrow. A cool down to more seasonable temperatures will occur by early next week with a chance of rain thrown in late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Bundle up folks... If AccuWeather's just-released Winter forecast is right, we're in for a frigid few months... click here.

Also, Henry Margusity at AccuWeather has released his own Winter forecast with maps... click here.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

10/1 - 7:15pm - Cool Temperatures, Then a Warm Up?

With the month of October now in full-swing, it's expected that we'll have temperatures in the 60's and 70's. That will be true for Thursday and Friday, but we will see the return of lower 80's by Sunday and through the middle of next week. I'm thinking this could be our last batch of 80 degree temperatures for the year, so enjoy it while you can. Not a drop of rain is in the forecast for the next week.

I'm off to Florida until next Wednesday, so no blog posts or site updates until then. See you later!