Monday, March 31, 2008

3/31 - 9pm - After a Dry Day, More Rain!

A line of showers and thunderstorms are rapidly advancing on us as of 9pm. While they won't be severe weather-makers, they'll sure bring some soaking rains to the area. The line will come through after midnight tonight, bringing at most some lightning and downpours. This line has made a mess in the Midwest, with tornado reports from Missouri to Oklahoma.

We'll see showers end by tomorrow afternoon, but temperatures will only recover into the lower 60's... a far cry from today's nearly 70 degree temperatures. Wednesday will see highs topping out only in the upper 50's, but luckily there won't be any rain. More storms for Thursday and Friday.

Will the rain ever end?

Saturday, March 29, 2008

3/29 - 11am - No Forecast Video

Sorry folks, can't get a video forecast out today due to my schedule.

Storms will be on the increase by Sunday and Monday, but luckily the severe weather will stay west of us again (at least I think so at the moment). Tomorrow will be in the mid-60's and Monday will breach 70! We should clear out on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs only reaching 60.

So it looks pretty active precipitation wise this week, but at least temperatures will hold above 60 for the most part. Have a good weekend. Go Cards!

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

3/26 - 7pm - Here Comes the Rain

There's a batch of showers and thunderstorms on the radar just west of here that will make its way in during the evening hours. The thunderstorm part is falling apart, but the rain is still there. After tonight's rain, things will temporarily clear out until Friday. We'll see more rain on Friday and then we get a break for the weekend, although temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than they were today.

Monday is a problem. We're going to get soaked from dawn to dusk, adding on some huge rainfall totals to what we will already had from later this week. The HPC thinks we're going to get an accumulated 3" or so of rain by Monday. This is obviously a problem since the ground is still saturated from last week's mess. Another flooding mess in the works...

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

3/25 - 5pm - Slim Severe Chance, Washout Coming

The SPC has issued a 5% severe risk for us on Thursday into Friday. While that isn't anything really, the rain looks more impressive on an impeding Monday system. The GFS is painting real dark shades of blue and green here, meaning the rains will be quite intense on Monday. I think that the flooding problem will rear its ugly head again with the rain from Monday and all days previous that see any rain (adding up to an inch or so prior to Monday).

Stay dry!

Monday, March 24, 2008

3/24 - 6pm - Spring Storms, Coming Soon to a Sky Near You.

I think it's possible that we'll get a round of severe storms this week. The CAPE model is plotting some decent instability in the plains states, but it's too far out to see if there will be any good instability here. I wouldn't say the GFS has a squall line coming through here, but there is certainly some rain coming on Friday when all this could take place. It's simply too far out to tell where the severe weather will go, but there certainly is the chance. We'll at least see more rain, which doesn't bode well for our flooding issues around the area.

In any case this is a good time to remind everyone that we're getting ready to enter spring storm season. Just make sure your weather radios are working and your severe weather plans are in place. With the year we've had so far, who knows what this spring will bring.

Enjoy the warm weather!

Friday, March 21, 2008

3/21 - 5pm - Hippity, Hoppity, Easter's Almost Here!

I really wish that Saturday and Sunday could be as nice as today, but unfortunately that's not the case. Saturday will look like today in terms of sunshine, but the stark difference will be in temperature... upper 40's.

There's a chance for rain this Easter Sunday, but that looks like a night chance at best. 48 degrees isn't the best temperature for Easter egg hunts, but at least it'll be dry.

During the early part of next week temperatures will rise back into the lower 6o's and hold there for the remainder of the week.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

3/19 - 4:45pm - Flooding, Rain Tapering Off...

The rain that's with us now will stay around until mid-evening, when it finally ends! Tomorrow will be nice and clear, with the next rain possible on Friday night.

The flooding situation in Louisville isn't that bad; Indiana is taking the brunt of it. On my way home I heard reports of numerous road closures along the Ohio River in Louisville and many, many road closures in Indiana. Caesar's Casino is closed due to the excessive river levels. The major creek near my house is way over its banks, even flooding a parking lot a few yards away.

Flooding conditions should peak by tonight or tomorrow morning and then recede from there. Stay dry!

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

3/18 - 5pm - Whew... No Severe Weather.

For the last couple days it looked like we could have a severe weather situation on our hands today and tonight. The SPC has pretty much ruled that out and I agree due to the lack of instability (where's the sun?) and not that great of shear here. Luckily all we're getting is a few bolts of lightning and heavy rain. I say luckily with a condition: The flooding situation tonight into tomorrow could be a mess.

With 2-4 inches of rain on the way, streams, creeks, and rivers will most certainly reach their limits. This comes after a week of snow melt as well, making the situation even more dire. Just remember not to drive into any high water... "Turn around, don't drown!"

Monday, March 17, 2008

3/17 - 6:30pm - Severe Weather Possibility?

The SPC has placed us under a 5% risk of severe weather from Tuesday night on into Wednesday. I think this is too low because there is enough instability and shear here to warrant a line of severe storms. Even though the CAPE model (measures air instability) isn't terribly optimistic about anything severe here, I think the energy coming out of the plains states will be enough to carry the storms over our area. Granted, they'll be nothing like any storms that Houston, Texas receives on the same day (they are under a MODERATE RISK for severe weather), but we'll still see some of the dying remnants.

I think we'll only see severe thunderstorm warnings here and the tornadoes should stay southwest of us. The bigger story is the possibility of flooding. Some areas around here could receive up to 4 inches of rain fall according to the NWS and HPC. So we're under a flood watch due to that and we should see some flooding problems crop up on Wednesday. Be careful!

Saturday, March 15, 2008

3/15 - 2pm - New Forecast Video

After looking at some new data, I think the air will be unstable enough for some severe weather on Tuesday/Wednesday....

Friday, March 14, 2008

3/14 - 5pm - Rain, Sunny, then Rain

Our rain is out of the area for today, making way for more rain tomorrow. Tomorrow's rain will start later in the afternoon, but it should be dry from tonight into lunchtime tomorrow. After Saturday's rain, we'll clear out for Sunday and Monday with highs back into the 50's. By Tuesday and Wednesday more rain will come into the area with some storms likely. At this point the SPC isn't calling for any severe weather around these parts for Tuesday and Wednesday. I agree because the GFS has all the energy from a squall line that would form in Texas depleting by the time it gets here. It looks pretty disorganized for any type of squall line to form here as well, along with the general lack of instability for the area.

So it looks like just some rain with a few rumbles of thunder for early next week. We could get a run for 70 degrees on Tuesday!

Thursday, March 13, 2008

3/13 - 7:30pm - Ahhh... Now we're talking!

I like warm weather and I forgot that I did. 68 degrees is just what I needed to shake off some of the winter viruses and colds I've been getting. We're still on track for upper 50's and rain tomorrow with rain continuing over the weekend with temperatures falling into the upper 40's.

Still looks like Tuesday into Wednesday will be stormy. The SPC is now talking about East Texas getting some problems on Monday into Tuesday and it'll be interesting to see where they draw the Tuesday/Wednesday lines at. At some point here we'll start getting our spring severe weather, we just have to see which storm will produce it.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

3/12 - 7pm - Storms?

The SPC has a SLIGHT risk of severe storms posted for south and west of the area, extending into MS and TN for Friday into Saturday. It is possible that the risk could extend north to our area, but I don't think we have enough ingredients to support much of an outbreak. In any case, we'll see a few rumbles of thunder on Friday if nothing else.

The Monday storms I talked about yesterday now look like Tuesday storms. The SPC hasn't said anything about it yet, but I think they're taking it one system at a time right now due to the Friday and Saturday severe chances in the south. We'll see how that goes.

Tomorrow looks like a real winner. 70 and sunny is great weather in any season! Enjoy it now because the 40's and 50's will make a comeback late this week and next week.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

3/11 - 5pm - Warming Up!

Tomorrow will feature highs in the 60's, with mid 60's by Thursday! Here's the kicker, it'll rain Saturday and Sunday and drop 10 degrees. There could be a severe weather outbreak south of here for Friday, but we'll see just how far north it goes. The SPC also says that there could be more severe weather after Friday as well, hinting at that Monday line of storms I talked about yesterday. There's another snowstorm that will roar through this weekend, but I'm seeing rain for us and snow for Indianapolis. No more winter storms... please!

Monday, March 10, 2008

3/10 - 7pm - Quiet... For Now.

We're settling into a calmer and warmer pattern across the area, almost a 180 degree turn from last week. We'll see highs soar into the 60's this week as warmer air filters in.

There is one thing we need to remember... The spring thunderstorm season is lurking.

We might see another severe weather outbreak exactly a week from now, next Monday. The GFS is showing a heavy parcel of moisture in here with temperatures in the 60's. The thing that gets my attention is the brief drop in temperature behind it, a possible indicator of severe activity. This is just a guess at this point, but I'll bet the SPC will have something to say about it pretty soon.

Otherwise we have a chance of storms this Thursday and Friday, which will not be severe. Here comes Spring!

Sunday, March 9, 2008

Saturday, March 8, 2008

3/8 - 5:15pm - Snowstorm Video

There won't be a forecast video because of the snow. Instead, I made a short video with scenes from around our house of the snowfall. It was a beautiful storm...

3/8 - 9:30am - It's not done yet!

Just amazing... 8 inches at my house right now with some areas of Jefferson County reporting up to a foot. It's still snowing really hard, and we're expected to receive another 2-3 inches this morning.

Many counties in S. Indiana are under a state of emergency right now and asking residents not to even go out.

What caused all of this was a classic case of a banding snowstorm last night. What happens is that thunderstorms from down south drift north in bands and then start producing snow when they hit the cold air, producing thunder snow (which we had a lot of last night). We've just been slammed by band after band since the first one came through at 11:30pm last night.

We're on the tail end of it now, so it should stop at around 11am unless any new bands form. This is already as bad as Dec. 2004 in Louisville, and we're not done yet!

Friday, March 7, 2008

3/7 - 8:30pm - The Storm Continues...

All the sleet and snow pellets we had earlier are now changing to snow. This is the whopper part of the system everyone. We'll see maybe 5 to 7 more inches on top of what we have now by morning. So we're still shooting for 10 inches or so, maybe up to a foot if you're lucky.

The radar shows the huge batch of snow from Arkansas earlier today getting ready to sit on us for the night. The NWS is still holding on to their 7 inch estimate by tomorrow morning in terms of new snow accumulation (so still 10-12 inches total). Everything looks good on this end, so get ready for some awesome sledding tomorrow!

3/7 - 4pm - Winter Weather Update Video

I say that we're getting 8-10" in the video. After this was taped there was new information that came in from the NWS and now I'm thinking 10-14", aligning with the National Weather Service. The rest of the stuff in the video is correct.

3/7 - 2pm - Storm Coming Along

There is a huge band of heavy snow in Arkansas making its way up here for tonight. That's where we'll see the 8-10" total accumulation come out of. There's also some heavy banding just SE of Louisville that'll make things treacherous in the next hour.

Sorry about the lack of a video today... the storm has made getting errands done very difficult. I'll see if I can get a late one out tonight.

I'm checking up on some blizzard conditions that are possible tonight... could get really nasty during the overnight hours.

We have anywhere from 2-3 inches on the ground already and we're just getting started!

Thursday, March 6, 2008

3/6 - 8pm - 8-12" FOR LOUISVILLE

Sorry for the late post, it's been a crazy day...

Be sure to enter in a guess in my snow poll on the right side of the blog.

Folks, the latest models runs are giving us 8-12" of snow. WOW. This storm was scaring me last night because we were trending warmer and for less snow. Just over the last 6 hours we've gone way up in snow estimates. This storm will rival Dec. 2004.

I'll have a video out either late tonight or early tomorrow. The HPC is forecasting a moderate risk for over 8" and a slight risk for over 12". So its not just me, everyone is calling for just shy of a foot of snow. The way its looking now, it'll be a 99% snowstorm, with the other 1% being a smidgen of sleet mixed in during the afternoon tomorrow.

More updates later...

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

3/5 - 8pm - Now I'm Calling for a SNOWSTORM!!!

Be sure to vote for how much snow you think will fall on Friday in my poll on the right side of the blog.

Today's model runs sealed the deal for our storm. It looks like we'll at least get an inch... more realistically I think we'll get 4-6". There is still some uncertainty regarding the storm track because the models are a mess at this point. They're in GENERAL agreement that we'll have a storm, but as to how much snow is really the sticking point. The NAM swings in a massive storm with inches upon inches of snow here while the GFS is more conservative and gives us a nice 4" storm.

The main reason why these two models differ is the Appalachians... This thing has to go around them either to the east or west. An easterly trek gives us the GFS's storm whereas the westerly trek gives us the NAM's monstrosity. I think the easterly track is more favorable based on past tracks, but most of our massive storms have gone west of the mountains. So it's certainly possible either way.

The NWS in Louisville is just hours away from issuing a watch (probably Winter Storm Watch) for the area. They're holding out at the moment to see one more model run before they pull the trigger. The discussion said they're concerned with the possibility of some rain coming into play, but they're really the only ones saying anything about that at this point. All other weather sites have an all snow scenario for us.

The GFS does bring the freezing line at ground level pretty close to us, but the freezing line at a few thousand feet is pretty far away. So it'll snow pretty good at the onset, but it may not stick until early Friday if temps are a little warm.

Here's the timeline for this sucker:

Thursday Evening - Light snow showers/flurries
Friday Early AM - Moderate snow sets in... falling temperatures (1 inch)
Friday Afternoon - Heavy snow starts (2-3 inches)
Friday Night - Snow tapers off to showers (1-2 inches, fluffier snow due to falling temps)
Saturday Early AM - Showers taper off (0-2 inches)

Notice how all the higher numbers in the accumulation estimates add up to 8". This is certainly possible if a hybrid GFS/NAM solution plays out. If the NAM solution starts looking favorable, these numbers will go up seriously (to 8-10"). The HPC has us in a slight risk for over 4" for both Friday and Saturday. This means that in these periods we'll see new snow accumulations of possibly over 4". So the HPC sees 4-8" it looks like.

I'll keep an eye on this and have another post tomorrow afternoon around 5-7pm. Keep in mind that this is possibly our last snow for the season...

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

3/4 - 6:30PM - 300th Post! - Uh Oh....

First of all I want to personally thank everyone for checking in on the blog/website. Quite honestly I never thought I'd make it to my 300th post on here. It was such a wacky idea to start this site that I though that it wouldn't get off the ground. An average of 30 visitors a day and thousands of hits proved me wrong though... Thanks everyone!

We got tons of rain today! My rain gauge at home shows 1.37" since midnight and the storm total is 1.9". North of Louisville received more than we did, with well over 2". Luckily that's winding down and the flooding should calm down soon.

Now to explain my "Uh Oh" title... We're in for some snow tonight that I thought wouldn't happen. The snow over St. Louis is dying and reforming itself in southern Illinois and is now moving towards us. I don't think this is a big snow, but I certainly think that it'll cover the ground. With the water on the ground freezing a little overnight and the snow on top of that (.5" or so), we'll have a few slick spots on the roads. Expect a rapid temperature drop in the next couple hours.

Part 2 of the "Uh Oh" is Friday. I didn't have faith in this storm on Friday until the models converged today. The NAM and GFS are in agreement, FINALLY! Each model spreads a nice 2-5 inch swath of pure snow from SE KY up to just north of Louisville. We might see some mixed precip at the onset, but it looks like we'll have a nice soft snow pack on the top, making it "sled-able". Now this isn't a guarantee for inches of snow by any means, because we're still dancing on the line with this one. But since the GFS and NAM agree with this and the HPC has put us in a slight risk for more than 4", I'm nearly convinced:

I'm still concerned about an eastward jog in the storm, which would kill our snow. Although if a westward jog occurs then we're in for more snow than we see now. Luckily the GFS and NAM bias has been east the last few weeks, so a westward jog isn't out of the question! This will be firmed up by tomorrow afternoon or Thursday and we should be able to get accumulation estimates in here. THIS storm is the LAST snow of the season if it comes... Looks really warm for the next few weeks (by then it'll be nearly April).

Check back tomorrow!

Sunday, March 2, 2008

3/2 - 12pm - Throwing in the Towel

Just after I did my forecast video yesterday, the NAM switched over and agreed with the GFS's no-snow solution for us. So then I waited overnight to see if there would be an eastward trend. That didn't happen. So now it looks like St. Louis is getting a foot of snow and we get nothing. The St. Louis area is under a Winter Storm Watch.

Looks like we'll get some storms tomorrow and Tuesday from this system, but the nasty severe weather will stay down south. The SPC issued a MODERATE RISK of severe weather for the LA, MS area for tomorrow. The SLIGHT RISK area is working its way north on each advisory output, so we may well be under a slight risk for tomorrow by the next advisory output.

Oh well... No snow.

Saturday, March 1, 2008

3/1 - 4pm - New Forecast Video

I think the NAM has the right idea with the next storm. The GFS went way too far west overnight and the guys at AccuWeather agree. This might be our storm!