Thursday, April 26, 2007

4/26 - 7:45pm - Cool, then HOT!

Tomorrow's high is going to be in the low 60's. Then we turn on the heat for the rest of the weekend and next week. We're talking upper 70's to possibly mid 80's by next week!

Derby still looks good temperature wise, but the latest GFS runs have been hinting to some rain or thunderstorms in the area. As I've said before, this will change a million times before the real thing.

As for today, it's been quite active. We had some spotty little severe cells come through the area with some small hail and heavy rain. There was also a Tornado Watch issued, but that threat quickly shifted east once it was issued. Our next chance for storms will be next week during the heat. These will be of the spring-like popcorn variety...

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

4/24 - 5pm - Rough Weather Tonight

I just took a glance at the radar and spotted some nasty little cells starting to fire up across western Kentucky. These are not of the super cell nature as of yet, but are well on their way to achieving that status. These are forming an impromptu line of cells that is headed ENE towards Louisville. No tornado out watch right now, but the SPC said there could be one soon.

I keep you posted if anything develops.

Monday, April 23, 2007

4/23 - 4pm - Rain on the Way!

We'll be increasing our chances for rain this week goes on. Aside from the rain, we are under a slight risk for severe storms on Wednesday! We are just inside the area affected so we'll have to watch and see if that threat increases.

It looks like temperatures will hover in the mid 70's for most of the week. We will dip into the upper 60's for a couple days in the middle of this week, but we should recover nicely for this weekend. Right now, the Derby looks very warm. I'm sorry to say that we may have a couple of rain showers (light!) around the area though. This will probably change a million times before the day of the Derby though...

Thursday, April 19, 2007

4/19 - 8:30pm - Thunder is looking good!

Sorry for the drought in posts; I've been a little "under the weather" lately.

Ahh... We are finally going to break this nasty period of 50's and 60's. A solid week of 70 degree temperatures starts tomorrow. Thunder Over Louisville will be in the mid-70's and sunny, just perfect for the air show. The fireworks will go off in mid-60 degree temperatures, so that won't be bad either.

One thing that I would like to point out is that we have some "popcorn" thunderstorms that will come through late next week. These are the typical scattered springtime thunderstorms that dump a 5 minute downpour and then leave. It just hasn't been warm enough to get these lately!

Sunday, April 15, 2007

4/15 - 7pm - I'm back!

I'm back from my Spring Break vacation! Here are a few oddities I saw during my vacation...

Yesterday I was in central Georgia and I noticed there was a tornado watch for where I was. After some investigation, I found that super cells and a squall line were on their way to my area. It wasn't bad where I was, but southern Georgia got hit really bad with some nasty tornadoes.

As I was going through southeastern Tennessee today, I noticed a very strange phenomenon to say the least. IT WAS SNOWING! When I reached the top of the mountains in that area, it was 34 degrees and a pretty good snow shower was coming down.

Well I'm glad to return to some nicer weather than last week here. For this week, we have a few shower chances and a gradual warm-up. Thunder Over Louisville will be in the mid-70's!

Saturday, April 7, 2007

4/7 - 11:30am - WHY MUST IT FLURRY IN APRIL!?

This is just the craziest weather pattern that I've seen in many years. We had a pretty good round of April snow showers yesterday that even coated the ground for a couple minutes. And right now it's snowing again!

Easter will be the coldest it has been in many years. It's only going to be in the 40's folks:

There is a nice warm-up on its way for late next week, but I have a bad feeling about it. I'm seeing indications that Friday may be our warmest day for a few weeks. I don't see any 70's anywhere in the next two weeks or more. I hope we at least end April on a warm note!

I will probably not be able to get a forecast video out today due to my schedule. Remember that there will be no blog/video updates from April 8th to April 15th....

Thursday, April 5, 2007

4/5 - 8:50pm - Calm and Cold

I can't stand this cold weather at all! It still amazes me that we are holding at 36 degrees right now at my house after so many days in the 70's and 80's.

We are under a FREEZE WARNING right now, which indicates that temperatures will plummet to below freezing tonight. This is destructive because it can harm or kill many plants, especially tropical ones you bring inside during the winter time. So bring in those plants if you can.

There is some good news to report though. Our temperature trend will be moderating over the next few days so that we will end up in the 60's by early next week. Our only precipitation forecasted right now is just some showers at that same time next week.

Speaking of next week, I'll be out of town. Yep, no blog updates starting on Sunday. I'll see if I can squeeze out a video on Saturday, but I'm pretty sure I'll get out a graphical forecast, so you'll at least have something to reference to for the week ahead.

Dress warmly!

Tuesday, April 3, 2007

4/3 - Severe Weather Updates

6:50pm - The hail shafts died down right before reaching eastern Jefferson County. I think our severe weather threat is pretty much over for today. The winds were very incredible with this storm, especially when the leading wall cloud came through. We were lucky not to have any tornado problems in Louisville...

5:30 - LARGE HAIL MOVING TOWARDS LOUISVILLE. Tornadoes are being reported just north of Louisville. So far we don't have any tornado problems yet for Louisville. This hail could exceed golf ball size!

- Okay, there is a squall line developing just east of this front and is on its way to Louisville. This thing should be here within a couple of hours. It's coming together quick and it probably will have large hail. I cannot rule out the possibility of a tornado right now, especially because these nasty lines harbor them...

We are also in a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH right now, and I think that could turn into a TORNADO WATCH with the flick of a wrist, so watch out. If a TORNADO WATCH is issued, seek shelter in a sturdy building, preferably in a basement or windowless bathroom on the first floor.

Monday, April 2, 2007


The title says it all. We are under the gun for some isolated tornadoes between Louisville and Evansville. There will also be golf ball size hail or greater during the evening hours. Here's how it will all play out:
  • Two lines of T-storms will move through tomorrow, the first being the possible tornado maker in the afternoon.
  • The second line will be a nasty wind/rain/hail maker I think, with damage possible.
The SPC still has a 30% chance for severe weather, which isn't great at the moment. I think that this will change tomorrow morning as more data on instability and such comes in. This also depends on the amount of sunlight during the day tomorrow too, so keep watch on that.

I think the SPC's 30% chance is pinning down our local NWS office because it doesn't make sense to issue a Hazardous Weather Outlook with just that. There is a chance things could calm a little in the models, but for now we are seeing an increase in all the factors that would contribute to a tornado/storm outbreak.

Now to the tornado side of this. I think the greatest chance for tornadoes will be in the afternoon after about 3pm. This is when the supercells will form ahead of the front in the wet, warm air. Within these supercells there will be a couple tornadoes to look out for. I cannot tell right now if the supercells will be widespread or isolated, but there will be some. I don't think this is a tornado OUTBREAK, but still heed the warning here.

I'll update tomorrow when things get gnarly!!!

Sunday, April 1, 2007

4/1 - 12:30pm - SPC Has it Together.

Ah, the map I've been waiting for all week:

This is only a slight risk for us for severe weather on Tuesday evening. BUT this is almost a 30% risk, which may go up as the week wears on. Usually, the "Moderate" and the rare "High" areas are not drawn in until the day before the storm, so we could still be in the running for a "Moderate" chance of severe weather, although its very uncertain at this point.

The Cape model shows nearly the same shape of instability as the severe weather map above. Interestingly, the Cape model calmed down slightly from yesterday, but it moved a pretty good chunk of instability over Louisville. Yesterday we were on the edge of some moderate instability, but today we are in the middle of the "reds" of the model. So this means probably some instability somewhere in between moderate and high.

Oh yeah, today is your last day on a weekend for a few weeks that temperatures are in the 70's. With this huge front I've been harping about on Tuesday, are temperatures in the 40's and 50's. We should pull out of this by the end of the month.