Saturday, May 31, 2008

5/31 - 9pm MDT - New Group Arrives

Tour 4 has now officially ended with everyone's departure. Here's the group shot from last night:



The guests for tour 5 have arrived and we just got back from dinner at Ruby Tuesday. This week looks pretty active according to the SPC and word of mouth flying around inside the storm chasing community. I hope that I get to know everyone well and that we have many great storms to see together.

Friday, May 30, 2008

5/30 - 10:30pm MDT - Denver!

We weren't able to go to the Denver Zoo due to time constraints, but we did get to go out and have one last nice dinner together. The Ruby Tuesday next to Denver International Airport provided a great atmosphere for a look back at this wonderful week. I'll post pictures of the group soon. After dinner we all jumped in the hotel pool and had quite a good time (underwater somersault contest anyone?).

Tomorrow morning we're going out to rent another Suburban and trick it out with weather equipment (that is very exciting for a geeky person like me). Tour 5 guests should start arriving tomorrow afternoon and orientation starts that evening. Here we go for round 2!

5/30 - 11:30am CDT - A Scary Day Yesterday, Off to Denver

After waiting around at a truck stop yesterday for the storms to form during the HIGH risk, Todd (leader of the tour group) noticed that the winds in Nebraska were not shifting east like they were supposed to. This shift was needed so that the advertised tornado outbreak would happen. A cell formed to our west after about an hour at the stop, so we began to chase it with little expectation of a tornado since the winds were not shifting eastward. Once we caught up with the wall cloud, this is what we saw:


This was the eeriest wall cloud anyone on the tour had seen. It had a very prominent rotation to it and it looked like it was ready to fire off a funnel cloud. We had to leave after about five minutes since the mesocyclone looked ready to drop a funnel in our direction. We had to go around the south and east of the storm since it cut off access to the north road. When we finally came back to intercept it again, it had gone from a super cell to a linear wind-driven mess. It was moving about as fast as we were and that made things scary when we tried to outrun it. We were heading north with dozens of other chaser vans in a sort of "escape parade" when the storm nearly caught up to us. We weren't entirely sure what was inside the core of the storm, especially since there were power flashes on the ground (tell-tale sign of a tornado) and reports of funnels. The radar showed no rotation and just a straight line wind situation, which in itself could harbor winds of over 100mph. Here's a picture of that monster heading toward us:


We finally were able to outrun it by going east. We stopped to look at it in the driving rain, when I spotted a funnel. It didn't last long, but it was a finger-like protrusion that was bouncing around in one of the lower cloud bases. I wasn't able to take a photo of it, but I captured it with my video camera. I'll be sure to edit all my video footage and post it when I come back to Louisville.
After seeing the speed that it was going and the possible hail that the storm have been putting down, we aborted chasing this one for our own safety. We drove west on I-80 for a while and saw some of the destruction the storm left in its path. Barns were completely destroyed and houses had some minor damage done to them. Trees were also stripped of their leaves and branches were scattered. The debris was all scattered in one direction, so it looked like straight line winds were the culprit. It was hard to tell though since there were so many reports of tornadoes in the area. That storm really wasn't the type that should have put down a tornado, but stranger things have happened.

We then punched through a line of storms to see some lightning on the other side at night just south of the Nebraska border in Kansas. It was quite an active line with lots of hail and lightning. Todd managed to manuver us in between the hail cores as we punched through, but just barely. A 5 minute delay in our travels would have meant a new windsheild for all three SUVs. We then stopped and took pictures of the beautiful storm structure and the lightning. This was my best shot:


After a good night's rest, we're going to Denver, CO since there's no good storms in this part of the country. We'll be visiting the Denver Zoo for fun. Tomorrow is when tour 4 ends and the guests go home. New guests will be arriving tomorrow and tour 5 will start on Sunday morning. It has been a pleasure meeting and getting to know all the people on tour 4 and I hope this blog has been a good resource for family members to keep up with what we're doing.
Next week looks interesting!

Thursday, May 29, 2008

5/29 - 9:30am CDT - HIGH RISK!!!

As we drove along yesterday toward Colby, KS, I was looking at instability and shear models. I got a pretty good idea that we'd be in Central to Eastern Nebraska today. So I went to bed in my humble Super 8 motel room with the pleasant thought that we could have a pretty good day today. Out of curiosity this morning when I woke up, I got on the SPC website, expecting to see a MODERATE risk for today. Instead I got more than I bargained for: a HIGH risk. A HIGH risk is only issued just a handful of times per year. Conditions have to be really ripe for tornadoes and super cells for the SPC to go this far.

Basically the SPC is calling for a super cell festival in Eastern NE and Western IA. We were all very giddy getting into the SUVs this morning and the conversation was lively at McDonald's for breakfast. Whether or not the actual tornadoes manifest is a different story. We're a little concerned that the surface winds are a little too uniformly out of the SE for an outbreak, but it is still very early and there could be a shift to the east later on. Until we see a change in winds, we're going to follow the bulk of the moisture coming into Central Nebraska.

Today could be the day!

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

5/28 - 11am CDT - Small Chance for Severe Weather, Pictures

We're on the road toward Lubbock, TX from Abilene, TX in search of some possible isolated storms. Overnight, things got a little bit better forecast wise, so we scrapped the New Mexico plan and Carlsbad Caverns that we had planned for today. Our destination is around West Central Kansas or East Colorado by tonight so we can be in position for tomorrow in Nebraska. We'll be looking for storms on the way (SPC put out a SLIGHT risk for severe storms for Eastern Colorado), but mostly this is a travel day.

Here's one of the immense wheat fields that we stopped at in Texas yesterday as we waited for cells to form:




This is the infamous cow pasture where a wall cloud nearly gave birth to a tornado:

5/28 - 12:50am - A General Mess, Late Night Fun

We started off the day heading south into West Texas, hoping to make the best of the little tornadic activity that was expected. We intercepted a cell north of Abilene, TX and followed it for nearly two hours. As the cell regenerated itself over a cow pasture, I heard a scream from the fence as I was fixing some computer issues. "Wall Cloud!!!" Sure enough, a wall cloud with some serious rotation had formed in the two minutes that I wasn't watching. We watched it boil and churn for about ten minutes, each of us saying "come on, drop a funnel..." It then dissipated, much to the delight of the grazing cows below.

That cell and the surounding cells became contaminated by their cold outflows, and thus formed into one linear line of storms. Yuck! We chased the line for a few hours to get good cloud and lightning photos. It was then time to call it a night in Abilene, TX by about 10pm.

Some of us went over to IHOP (International House of Pancakes) for a midnight dinner. During that time the linear line of storms that we chased (or rather outran), caught up with us. As I and a few others were about to leave, rain started coming down in sheets. A small ditch near the restaurant had nearly a foot of water in it in just minutes. After fifteen minutes we had enough and sprinted 200 yards back to the Best Western. What we didn't realize was that the parking lots connecting the restaurant, a shopping center, and our hotel were three inches deep with water. So we all ran through the puddles and got water in our shoes. I've never been so wet in my life... I was wetter than someone who had just gotten out of the pool!

Tomorrow is a sight seeing day since the storm chances look awful. We're going to Carlsbad Caverns in New Mexico and then heading north toward Nebraska so we can be in position for what looks like a pretty good day for severe weather on Thursday. I'll post a couple interesting photos from today sometime tomorrow afternoon.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

5/27 - 11am CDT - Pictures, Going to TX Panhandle and SW OK

Here's a couple of pictures from yesterday:

A funnel west of Woodward, OK that we reported.


A super cell developing south of the Kansas border.


Here's a time lapse video I shot of some of the super cell development in the same place as the picture above:
video

We're now on our way to Southwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle in search of some good conditions for tornadoes. There's only a SLIGHT risk of severe weather in that area according to the SPC, but we'll see if we can intercept some isolated cells. Yesterday got a little messy as the individual cells started to stick together, but at least we saw some great lightning and awesome cell development!


You can track our position live at: http://www.spotternetwork.org/google.php

Just look for the "stormchasing.com" vehicle icon on the map.

Monday, May 26, 2008

5/26 - 11:40pm CDT - A Late Night

After seeing some super cellular development at around 5pm this evening, things started to go downhill. We spotted a funnel cloud just west of Woodward, OK that quickly dissipated, with not much else but rain and hail in the surrounding cells. Before reaching maturity, these cells began to merge and steal energy from one another. So we then headed south to reach the zone where super cells were developing without the obstruction of other cells' outflow and cloud cover. It was simply a spectacular sight as we pulled over for an hour and watched towering clouds build up and move. I took some great sunset shots there and even a few timelapse videos of the storm development. I'll see if I can get some of those pictures and videos up tomorrow morning.

Once those storms started really getting revved up, we traveled north to intercept one of the stronger and more promising cells. It began to get dark very quickly as we drove toward Dodge City, KS and the cloud to cloud lightning became simply beautiful. Around the Ashland, KS area we lost our Internet connection and thus our radar data. So we chased this cell blindly for a few minutes (it was about 10pm now) until Todd, owner and main guide for the tour company, decided that we needed some radar data for safety and that the low level jet (main source of Gulf moisture) was being cut off from the south by newly developed storm cells. It was then off to a late night visit to McDonald's and then settling in for the night at a motel in Woodward, OK. Hopefully tomorrow holds more potential...

I'd like to extend a special welcome to those visitors from Belski's Blog. I'll be out here chasing until June 6th and I hope to have more pictures of tornadoes and other severe weather features during the next couple of weeks. Thanks for all the comments!

5/26 - 10am MDT - Off to SW Kansas and Oklahoma

We just got done with breakfast in Goodland, KS and we're off to our target area in the SW Kansas and North Oklahoma area. The SPC says there is a MODERATE risk for severe weather down there, but we're not as optimistic as they are. Instability, moisture, and temperatures look good, but we're having problems with shear. The good part in all of this though is that any storm that does form before 5pm-ish tonight will be isolated, supercelluar, and strong. Since there's a good cap today (layer of warm air above the surface that "bottles up" potential storm development from rising surface air) we think that we'll avoid the nasty mess that happened yesterday when all the super cells merged together.

Time is of the essence because the isolated super cells we're looking for will eventually give way to an MCS (which I talked about yesterday) and destroy most of the tornadic potential. This will happen after 4 or 5pm tonight, so I think we'll be able to work in 3 or 4 good hours of chasing if these super cells do manifest themselves. Even then our tornado potential is pretty limited, so we'll be looking for good scenery in these storms more than for tornadoes.

I just wanted to tell all of the family members of those on this trip who are reading my blog that everyone is doing just fine. We've had a great time looking at awesome storms, diving into the SUVs when those storms get too close, and seeing all the great scenery here in the Plains!

Sunday, May 25, 2008

5/25 - 6:45pm MDT - Rope Funnel, Lots of Hail, Not Much Else

As we intercepted a good sized supercell in West Central Kansas, we just skirted the edge of the hail shaft. We also saw a pretty good sized wall cloud with a possible funnel, which seemed to dissipate pretty quickly after a while. Two golf ball to baseball sized pieces of hail struck our roof and one just on the top of the windshield. They didn't leave a mark, but they sure scared us! We were very close to being inside the hail shaft... That would have left some damage.

After escaping the hailshaft, we stopped and saw this little beauty:



This rope funnel was the first funnel cloud I have ever seen! We stared at it for about 20 seconds and then realized that it was right over us. Get in the car!!! So we drove down the road and it dissipated. After this funnel there wasn't much else but heavy rain and marble sized hail. Tomorrow looks a little less promising since those thunderstorms could be of the MCS (multi-celled structure) and not harbor many tornadoes. Later tonight could be interesting as another outbreak of severe weather could come about. We're staying in a hotel tonight right in the path of the expected severe weather so that we can witness lightning shows and any possible tornadoes. Sleep is a luxury for a storm chaser!

5/25 - 11:15am CDT - A Great Day for Supercells

We're on the road right now heading toward the SW Kansas area and possibly N Oklahoma. The SPC says there's a MODERATE risk in this area and there's a pretty good moisture flow and lots of instability. An area of low pressure is also expected to form and come into that area as well, further making this a good day to see some severe weather. We just got finished shopping at Wal-Mart, buying food and other necessities since we might not be able to stop and eat lunch or dinner.

After arriving in Amarillo yesterday, I flicked on the TV and this is what I saw:




This was quite a series of tornadoes that ripped through Oklahoma, but luckily they just hit a rural area. It was interesting to see live pictures of a developing tornado like that.

Hopefully I'll have some interesting pictures to share with you tonight or tomorrow after we intercept these storms. It looks like the tornado activity should start later this afternoon into tonight. I'll try my best to upload a couple of the best ones, but the web connection out here is a little slow and things could get busy. Here's hoping for a good show this afternoon!

Saturday, May 24, 2008

5/24 - 5am - Off to the Lonestar State!

My flight for Amarillo leaves first thing this morning and I'm scheduled to arrive at around lunchtime. Tonight before dinner is when our orientation starts for the guests on the tour. We'll see a storm chasing video and then go out to eat dinner before our big chase day tomorrow. The company I'm working for is Storm Chasing Adventure Tours (stormchasing.com), which operates out of Amarillo, TX and Denver, CO depending on the season.

I should be able to make another blog post by tomorrow evening at the latest, hopefully with some pictures. I'm able to make quick posts from my cell phone as well if something big happens out there. Thanks for checking in on my blog and a special welcome to new visitors!

Friday, May 23, 2008

5/23 - 8pm - Tomorrow's the Day!

Tomorrow morning is when I leave for my storm chasing trip. I should get into Amarillo, TX at about lunch time and then the orientation for the chase starts. We'll start the actual chase on Sunday morning. Hopefully I should have some pictures from the road by Sunday night.

Here's Sunday's outlook from the SPC:



While the severe threat doesn't look too bad and looks concentrated to the north, this is still a couple days out. It is very possible that more areas will be included later on in the SLIGHT Risk area, and there could be a MODERATE Risk issued if things work out right. Instability looks good and theres a bit of a cold front going through. I'm a little worried that the outbreak will consist of a line of bow-echoes (monster fast moving linear wind storms) rather than supercells (tornado-makers), but I think we'll work some supercells in before they all merge into one nasty line of storms. We'll have to see how it goes...

Only 1 day left!

Thursday, May 22, 2008

5/22 - 3pm - A Wild Day in Colorado

Wow... Just got a look at the SPC's storm reports. This is a big tornado:

DIRECT HIT ON STATE FARM BUILDING. CARS TOSSED OFF OF ROAD. TREES DOWN. SWIFT COMPANY ROOF TORN OFF. TORNADO 3/4 TO 1 MILE WIDE (BOU)

This is hitting Weld County in Northern Colorado. Here's a picture from KUSA-TV in Denver:



It has caused a great amount of damage already and this probably won't be the last one for today. Looks like this is only the beginning of things to come next week in the Plains. Could be a very busy couple of weeks for the tour.

The map I posted yesterday from the SPC is little changed, with the only big change being that the Day 6 outbreak will be contained to the west. Simply a great time to go chasing!

Cloudy skies will prevail here tomorrow with highs in the lower 70's and a slight chance of rain. We'll clear out the clouds and see temperatures soar into the mid 80's for this weekend!

Only 2 days left!

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

5/21 - 8pm - Ken Schulz Last Day at WHAS

Today is the last day of Ken Schulz long and well appreciated legacy at WHAS11. After meeting him a year and a half ago, its hard to see him leave. I remember him being on the air many times during severe weather in the mid-90's. He's really one of the first TV personalities I recognized as a child and influenced my decision to become a meteorologist greatly. When I visited WHAS in January 2007, I witnessed both the pressure and the humor that Schulz experienced in his day to day job. Much to his sarcastic and humorous displeasure, the hard parts of his job only made me want to go into meteorology even more. So thank you Ken Schulz for all your years of service to our community.

Click here to see his last broadcast from WHAS and a montage of his 30 years of being on the air.

5/21 - 3:30pm - This Could be an Incredible Chase Week

The SPC's 4-8 Convective Outlook (severe storms) speaks for itself:



This is going to be one heck of an active week coming up in the Plains and, coincidentally, I'm going to be out there for all the highlighted days in the SPC's outlook above. Simply incredible! After so much stable and calm weather, the Spring severe weather machine turns on now. You guys are in for quite a slew of pictures it looks like. Here's what the SPC says:
...AND WITH
MODERATELY-STRONG FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKDOWN...SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MULTIPLE-DAY THREAT FOR
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.
They're not ready to issue any outlook areas for days 7 and 8 on that outlook, but I think it could continue into that time space. Excitement is brewing!!!

For us it looks pretty much the same, with sun and warm temperatures for both this week and next. We have an ever so slight rain chance on Friday, but I really wouldn't worry about that. 80's by the end of this weekend!

Only 3 days left!

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

5/20 - 5pm - Splendid Weather Here, Wild West Storms Coming

Aside from the clouds and low temperatures (65 degrees isn't too bad at all), we've had a pretty nice day today. As long as the wind is fairly calm and we don't get any rain, it should be just like this for the rest of the day. There's not a drop of rain on the radar, so it looks good from here. We'll clear out the remaining clouds for the rest of this week, with temperatures increasing well into the 80's by Sunday. A few rain chances will creep in as well for late week, but they're pretty small at this point.

Here's the NWS forecast for Amarillo, TX when I get there on Saturday:

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Not too hot and not to cool! Severe weather is on the way for late this week in the Plains, mainly north of the Texas panhandle. I think we'll start heading north into Kansas and Nebraska on the first day of our chase based on the current SPC 4-8 day outlook. They're forecasting severe weather from Friday to Saturday and more to come after that. It's too early to tell beyond that due to model inconsistencies. I think next week will be a great chase period, especially after the lack of severe weather for the last couple weeks out there. Excitement is mounting!

Only 4 days left!

Monday, May 19, 2008

5/19 - 5pm - Brief Period of Light Rain

The radar shows a not-too-organized area of showers heading towards us with heavier rain staying to our Northwest. This rain should end by tomorrow morning as we head into a dry, warm pattern. Looks like 70's and 80's with not a drop of rain for the rest of the week. What a way to spend the last week in Louisville for a while!

Only 5 days left!

Saturday, May 17, 2008

5/17 - 12pm - New Forecast Video

A little more rain this week, but temperatures will be getting closer to normal.



Only 7 days left!

Friday, May 16, 2008

5/16 - 3:30pm - One More Shot of Rain

It was nice to see the sun again today! We topped out at .36" of rain at my house since midnight and temperatures are holding in the mid-60's. More rain on the way tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. After that we'll see a small daily chance of rain until mid-week, when sunshine and near 80 degree weather takes hold. That's a pretty good forecast I'd say.

I've been watching the GFS to see if the calm pattern in the Plains is ever going to break. As I said yesterday, it's looking more and more like late next week into the week after that look mighty good in terms of severe weather. Multiple troughs are going to go through starting late next week, meaning severe chances go up! These troughs will bring the lift and instability needed to support a severe weather outbreak, coupled with good upper-level winds. Things could get really interesting while I'm out there.

Only 8 days left!

Thursday, May 15, 2008

5/15 - 7:30pm - Dreary Day, Less Rain for Tomorrow

What a nasty day its been! Nearly a quarter inch of rain and the temperature had difficulty even getting into the mid-60's. Tomorrow could see some drizzle in the morning, but we'll likely see just clouds in the afternoon. After tomorrow a daily chance of rain, just a small one, exists each day until about Wednesday. By next weekend (when I leave) we'll see another major rain maker come in and give us a soaking.

There's been a lull in severe weather in the Plains over the last week. Looks like that will give way to an active severe weather pattern by next weekend (how convenient... I arrive in Amarillo on Saturday and the chase starts Sunday). The GFS is putting some troughs through the Plains after next weekend and it seems that other models say this is only the beginning. Looks like it could be quite a ride... Lots of good pictures are sure to come!

Only 9 days left!

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

5/14 - 3pm - A Cloudy, Cool Afternoon

We've had .69" of rain at my house so far and the temperature is holding at 63 degrees. That sure doesn't sound like May to me! This pattern, with more rain, will continue until Friday when the rain moves out. A small daily chance of rain will be in place from the weekend into next week, but temperatures should be a little higher than they were today.

Only 10 days left!

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

5/13 - 7:30pm - A Rainy End to the Week

Thunderstorms start tonight and go all the way, nearly non-stop rain, until Friday. A daily chance (30%-40%) of rain will be in effect from Saturday to Wednesday. By next Wednesday a large storm system chuck full of rain will roll through. What a mess!

Something we're lucky not to have is severe weather, which is going on in TX and OK right now. The SPC hasn't issued any severe weather outlooks for us and the GFS looks benign, so we're just going to see rain and lightning with these thunderstorms tomorrow through Friday.

It looks like this weekend's forecast update will be the last for a while until at least the middle of June due to storm chasing and my vacation plans.

Only 11 days left!

Monday, May 12, 2008

5/12 - 4pm - Nice Couple of Days

The advertised clearing and warming for today came as expected and boy did it sure make a difference! Tomorrow looks like a similar situation, but temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 70's instead. Thunderstorms come in the picture on Wednesday and Thursday with a general slight chance of rain and mostly cloudy skies for the weekend.

A deadly 7.9 (according to USGS) earthquake has hit China killing thousands of people. Click here for more information. After the cyclone and the earthquake, it's been quite a troubling couple of weeks in Asia.

After rampant severe weather problems in the Eastern part of the US, it looks like more might be on the way. The SPC has issued severe weather outlooks for TX, LA, MS, AL, GA, and FL for Thursday through Saturday. We can't seem to get a break!

Only 12 days left!

Saturday, May 10, 2008

5/10 - 3pm - New Video Forecast

Looks like we'll be dealing with some wind and hail tonight as strong to severe storms roll through.



Only 14 days left!

Friday, May 9, 2008

5/9 - 6pm - A Beautiful Saturday

The clouds will clear for one day, and that day is thankfully Saturday. This is our reprieve before more rain sets in Sunday. That'll clear out for Monday and Tuesday before storm chances go up on Wednesday. The SPC has no severe weather outlooks posted for us at the moment, but one was in here for Sunday earlier today. We'll see how that goes.

Only 15 days left!

Thursday, May 8, 2008

5/8 - 3:30pm - Temporary Clearing

Once the rest of the rain pushes out tonight we should see a nice Friday and Saturday before more rain comes in on Sunday. Early next week looks dry until even more rain comes in by Wednesday.

Saw this on Belski's blog today and found it a little disheartening. A storm chaser has been arrested in Texas for allegedly blocking the road. From what it sounds like, it could be just a case of overreaction to a simple infraction. I don't really have to worry about this on my trip in two weeks because the company I'm working for always looks out for the safety of others and obeys the law. We're not just 'yahoos' going to get the perfect picture; We're taking in the whole storm.

Only 16 days left!

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

5/7 - 6:30pm - Getting Rained On!

I was just outside a few moments ago when I heard a roar in the woods. It kept getting closer and closer to the house until I finally got drenched. The rain is moving in fast and it'll be in here for quite some time.

Tomorrow's rain will be primarily in the afternoon and Friday's will be early in the day. We get a break until Saturday night when rain chances shoot up again. No big severe problems around here with these storms coming through, but areas south and west of the area will get pounded.

Tornado warnings are out for a couple counties near Oklahoma City right now. That threat will shift east tomorrow with what looks like a lesser intensity. I'm monitoring this in hopes that this pattern of severe weather holds up until after my storm chasing trip is over. It's kind of an ironic wish because tornadoes and storms are good for studying and taking pictures of, but they can wreak havoc on homes, businesses, and lives. Let's hope all the tornadoes this week happen in empty fields.

Only 17 days left!

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

5/6 - 6pm - Nice Today, Rain Tomorrow Night

One more nice day like this is in store for tomorrow before the rain begins tomorrow night. The HPC is calling for just under one inch of rain by Sunday. We'll hold in the 70's all this week and into the weekend, with the rain hopefully tapering off a little by early next week. The GFS model is showing a very wet pattern here for the next couple weeks, so say goodbye to this dry weather we've been having. Luckily there's no chance of severe weather with this next system on Thursday/Friday.

The death toll in the Myanmar cyclone has possibly surpassed 22,000 according to state run media. There are reports of numbers greater than that missing.

Only 18 days left!

Monday, May 5, 2008

5/5 - 5pm - Absolutely Beatiful Weather

It's 73 degrees with a low 28% humidity. There isn't a cloud in the sky. It can't get much better than this!

Tomorrow's forecast looks the same, except temperatures will be in the upper 70's as opposed to today's lower to mid 70's. Our next rain chance will be tomorrow night lasting into Friday. The rain will start again on Saturday and stick around for the remainder of the weekend and possibly into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Nargis made landfall in Myanmar last Saturday with devastating damage and fatalities. Estimates of deaths are running as high as 10,000 in the ravaged country. To read more about the aftermath, click here.

Only 19 days left!

Saturday, May 3, 2008

5/3 - 2pm - New Video Forecast

What a nasty day for Oaks! That paled in comparison to the deadly Arkansas tornadoes yesterday, but luckily I think we'll avoid both of those today. Happy Derby!

Friday, May 2, 2008

5/2 - 3pm - Severe Weather on the Way!

A line of heavy thunderstorms is approaching the Louisville area and should be here at around 3pm. These aren't severe, but they'll sure make a lot of noise.

I'm worried about later this afternoon and tonight. Later this afternoon another line of thunderstorms will come through that could really pack a punch. They're in Southern Kentucky right now near Mayfield. There are multiple tornado warnings associated with this line, but I think they will weaken a bit before they reach us later this afternoon.

Later tonight should cap off the rest of the severe weather with the last line of storms coming through. They should start around midnight and the main threat will be straight line winds. I don't expect these to be very bad at all, but we could have some severe thunderstorm warnings in the region.

These storms this afternoon and tonight are going to make a mess for the B-52's concert on the Riverfront at 9pm tonight. If there's lightning, many outdoor Derby Festival events could be canceled.

Thursday, May 1, 2008

5/1 - 4pm - Derby Looks Good, More Aftershocks

We're just outside of a SLIGHT risk for severe storms Friday night as they weaken going east. I don't think we'll have much of a problem here, but it looks like there could be issues in Southern Illinois with a moderate risk out there.

Derby looks good with temperatures in the lower 70's and a possible small shower. Winds are gusty right now in Louisville, which could impact the large balloons at the Pegasus Parade.

Also, Illinois has had another resurgence in aftershocks over the last couple of days. Yesterday evening a 2.6 was recorded and today a 3.3 was recorded. It'll be interesting to see what else comes out of the active area in Illinois. I received a link from Brent in Illinois today of some security video with sound of the big 5.2 a couple weeks ago. You can view it here. Just click on the first yellow link on the page.