1/29 - 9pm - Monday Looking Increasingly Interesting

First off, LG&E is reporting 190,000 without power right now. This is up a bit from last check due to more trees falling as the day went on. For a map of the current power outage estimates in Jefferson County, click here. A state-wide map can be found here.

On to the next storm, which could be a whopper if things fall into place. An area of low pressure surging north from the Gulf of Mexico should cool things down on Monday from the near 50 degree temperatures we'll have on Sunday. The accompanying precipitation with this storm will be impressive to say the least, maybe even historic. Here's the latest model outputs:


18z GFS


12z ECMWF (European)


18z DGEX

Notice how all three of these models offer a similar track for the intense low, which is west of where it was forecast to go yesterday. The Canadian (posted yesterday) looks about the same, but has shifted west slightly. You're probably looking at the darker greens and blues on the GFS and DGEX and saying "Uh-oh." I'm saying the same thing. Look at this preliminary accumulation estimate taken from the GFS for this storm:



Yeah, that's 6-8" at a 10:1 rain/snow ratio. Here's the problem: we'll be operating at a ratio that could get higher than 12:1 during the coldest part of the storm, when the freezing line at the surface sinks way south of here. These totals could be nearing 12" if that happens.

We're still four days away, so things could change. The daunting issue is that the models are agreeing on this storm pretty well. I think there is a chance that it could correct eastward, but I'm only seeing westward trends at this point. If this low track changes slightly and pulls up more moisture from the Gulf, we could be dealing with a historic storm. It will be interesting to see what happens. Again, whatever happens on the models this weekend will be the deciding factor on whether Louisville, Lexington, or somewhere further east gets the brunt of this storm.

1/22 - 5pm - All Over the Place

There's a word I like to hear when we have a storm in the forecast: model convergence. I haven't heard it or said it once today. This system next week that could bring us a ton of snow, a nasty ice storm, or a boatload of rain just cannot be forecast accurately at this point using our 21st century technology. The GFS gives us a smattering of snow on Tuesday before cranking up the rain for Wednesday and Thursday. I'm getting a similar gist from the Euro as well.

I just looked at the HPC's low track and they have the low tracking through Tennessee. The DGEX model seems to agree with that to some degree. The thing I've seen the most on all of these models has been a depletion of moisture on Monday and Tuesday to the storm (two systems going on here) on Wednesday-Thursday. I also noticed that the Louisville NWS is sticking to their guns with an all snow solution for both systems on our local forecast package, although they note how difficult they are being forecast-wise. I think we'll know by Sunday if we're going to get socked by this thing or not. Don't get your hopes up.

What I can bet on is warm weather for tomorrow! After a high in the 50s today, we'll see mid 50s for tomorrow. The reality of Winter will set in by the weekend, with lower 30s for both Saturday and Sunday.

1/2 - 5:45pm - Can I Get a Stable Storm Track Please?

The last 24 hours have been absolutely nuts on the forecast models with our Tuesday storm. Right now I can't say what kind of precipitation we'll see, but I think we'll see a mix of multiple types. Yesterday's model runs showed it to be too warm for any freezing precipitation, but now the area of low pressure is trending slightly east on the GFS and DGEX (derivative of GFS), which starts us out with some wintry precipitation and then goes to rain before a transition to snow on Wednesday. Snow accumulations would be very small, if any, with this solution.

The Louisville NWS office was thinking we'd see mostly rain yesterday, but this trend eastward has made them rethink that. They're saying its unknown what we'll see at this point and would have to be determined based on the low pressure track. I completely agree with that, but all sorts of bells and whistles are still going off in my head.

When I see this kind of variation between the models and their runs at 4 days out, it reminds me of December 2004 and March 2008. We had all sorts of monkey business happen in the models just a few days before those storms, similar to what's happening now. My gut is telling me something is very wrong here and that doesn't happen often. I think we're in for a wild mix of forecasts over the next couple days, but we'll have a correct solution by late Sunday.

For now, I'll stick with mostly rain on Tuesday and a bit of mixed precip at the onset and backside of this storm. BUT, be ready for massive changes in that forecast if the low pressure track goes southeast more. In any case, frigid air is on the way for late next week, but not before a shot at 60 on Sunday!

11/26 - 7pm - Now We're on to Something!

I wrote yesterday that the models were not in good agreement with each other for a potential system late weekend into early next week. The GFS had a strange looking trough and the DGEX didn't know what to do. Fast forward 27 hours and look what happened:



Yikes! The GFS and DGEX both agree on a snowstorm solution for Monday, with Louisville, Evansville, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis right in the crosshairs. The NAM doesn't go out far enough in time to see the storm, but the right components are on the model for development 84 hours from now. I don't even want to talk about accumulations yet... the models have varied wildly over the last 24 hours. What I will say is that I've seen a general increase in moisture in the models since yesterday, so keep your fingers crossed!

Obviously I want to express a word of caution before you grab your snow cream recipes and snow shovels. This storm is still 5 days out and much can change in that time period. If the low pressure associated with this system decides to go east of the Appalachians, that could mean less snow. If the low goes any further west of where its forecast to go now, we could see rain and mixed precipitation. BUT... the fact that model agreement is fairly decent at the moment makes me more optimistic that we could be dealing with a snowstorm here Sunday night into Monday.

I'll be out of town for the Thanksgiving weekend (whew... not going to miss the potential storm), but I'll have internet access while I'm gone. If anything happens with the models, I'll be sure to post. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

11/25 - 4:45 pm - Not Sure What to Make of This Pattern

The GFS has been an utter mess over the last couple days. Its been bringing in storms, loosing them, and disagreeing with itself and other models. I must say I'm not the only one being driven crazy by this! The 12z run has nothing but cold air and mostly dry conditions. The DGEX is fairing the same way at the moment as well. With both of these, the trough that will form across much of the US this weekend and into early next week is situated oddly, making me suspicious that the model is not handling the setup well. We'll have to see what comes our way early next week if anything at all. There's moisture and cold air, but the moisture is south of here and the cold air is over us. There's a possibility we could see a surprising shift in the models as we get closer to time.

The possible snow on Friday has pretty much evaporated from the models, but a slight chance for a small shower is still in the works. Thanksgiving still looks warm, with a high near 52!

11/24 - 4pm - Something Could Be Lurking in the Models

My rain gauge reads .66" of rain since midnight, which seems reasonable given how heavy the rain was early this morning. The good news is that it's out of here, but unfortunately temperatures will stay in the 40's for the remainder of the week. Tomorrow will be the coldest day, with a high that will struggle to reach 40. A high of 50 is not out of the question for Thanksgiving, but it's difficult to tell what might happen this weekend temperature-wise.

What I mean is that some of the models are showing a snowstorm for this Friday and into the weekend. The GFS is really not picking up on this and suppressing the associated low to the south. It also shows warmer air in here that the other models do not favor. The Canadian in particular has the low tracking south of us and then cutting up through Eastern Kentucky, which would be a classic snow solution for us. The DGEX is a little more aggressive with the cold air and precipitation than the GFS, but still nowhere near models like the Canadian.

At this point we just need to sit back and wait. I'd say the chances of a storm actually playing out this weekend are fairly small, but a little snow on the backside of a rain system would make more sense to me. The Louisville NWS isn't jumping on any bandwagon and calling for mostly rain with a possible period of snow or mix if the models trend colder. I think that's a pretty sound forecast given the great uncertainty, so I'll go with that for now.

10/23 - 7:30pm - Bring the Umbrella Along!

Tomorrow is the day that you will need the umbrella. Rain from a cold front to our west will overspread the area tonight and last into tomorrow evening. It should be all said and done by early evening tomorrow, with over an inch of rain expected around the area according to the HPC. I hope everyone enjoyed the high of 73 today, because tomorrow will only reach into the mid 50's. We'll recover to near 60 by Sunday, but it looks downhill after that. Temperatures will stay in the lower to middle 50's for next week, with possible 40 degree temperatures looming the week after.

All the hoopla about some snow flurries next week that I talked about is apparently looking more and more valid. The GFS is showing very cold mornings in the 30's on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week. With a small chunk of moisture coming through on Monday morning, it looks as though we will actually get a few flurries around the area. It will be too warm for any accumulation, but temperatures aloft will definitely be cold enough to generate snow. The NAM has even more moisture than the GFS on Monday morning, but it doesn't have any snow due to higher temperatures on that model. The DGEX model looks like the NAM, but temperatures are cold enough to support snow. I'm disregarding the amount of snow on these models at this point because a couple of them look too high, but we'll see. There may be additional flurries on Tuesday or Wednesday morning as well, but we'll have to wait for additional model runs. At any rate, there will not be any accumulation. At least its fun to think about!