3/5 - 11:55pm - Warmer Weather Ahead in East Mississippi!

This morning's cold front brought rain and wind to the Golden Triangle but we've now cleared that out of here as the front is well to our east. Temperatures for tomorrow will be cooler than they were today by about ten degrees but a warming trend will take us well into the 70's by the weekend. How about that... we've gone from snow flurries to warm temperatures in the 70's within the space of a week! Check out my latest CampusConnect Forecast video below for all the details.

2/28 - 10pm - Snow Showers Possible in MS This Weekend

As cooler air filters in overnight we'll see chilly temperatures tomorrow morning in Starkville along with cloudy skies. A disturbance rotating through the backside of a large low pressure area over the Eastern US will give us a shot at some flurries and snow showers late Friday night into the morning on Saturday. Just like a couple weekends ago, there could be some flurries flying at the MSU baseball game on Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will begin to warm a bit on Sunday and eventually we'll get all the way into the 60's for the new workweek. Your full Mississippi State CampusConnect forecast is in the video below!

11/28 - 5pm - Post-Thanksgiving Odds and Ends

Weekend in Jackson, TN
I just got back to Starkville after a nice weekend up in Jackson where I did my regular weather shift on Saturday morning at WBBJ and spent some time touring the area with my family. It really warmed up today up there (into the 60's) and the weather was quite pleasant all the way back to Mississippi. Another cold front is poised to sweep through the South tomorrow, bringing with it some rain and possible severe weather for portions of the region. Cooler temperatures will be on the way behind it on Tuesday. Check out some clips from yesterday's ABC 7 Good Morning West Tennessee show below:



You might be able to tell from the video above that I have a severe cold. I'm surprised the show went as well as it did even though I was nearly losing my voice.

Louisville Surprise Snow Accumulations
Early Friday morning was pretty interesting back home in Louisville. A cold front has just swept through the area and temperatures were dropping like crazy as the rain associated with the front was almost at an end. Just as I was getting into bed, I checked the surface conditions real quick to see if we would get any flurries with the moisture we had left. I was shocked to see a temperature of 37 degrees and dropping quickly at our house with the amount of precipitation left on the radar to our west. Within the next hour we dropped to just above freezing and snowflakes the size of golf balls started mixing with the rain. It turned to all snow just minutes later and the temperature bottomed out to around 30 degrees before the snow ended. I was very surprised to see nearly an inch of snow on the grass and elevated surfaces when it was all said and done because the ground was still wet and supposedly warm from the day's rain. A few runs of the GFS model before the front came through hinted at a possible snow accumulation, but I wasn't buying it because of the lack of moisture on the back end of the front... guess it proved me wrong! Check out these pictures I took at my house after the snow stopped:

Mississippi/Louisiana Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow
As I said before there could be some severe weather in the South tomorrow, especially in Louisiana and Southern Mississippi. The threat for severe weather in Starkville tomorrow afternoon and into the late evening will most likely be smaller than in areas in the south near I-20. With that said, computer forecast model differences in instability are making it difficult to pinpoint exactly how far north the severe weather threat will extend. With the amount of upper level wind support and shear (latest GFS model run says we could get 60kt of bulk shear tomorrow evening... only 30-40kt is needed for severe weather), this event looks like a tornado-maker for the aforementioned areas. The SPC seems to favor areas just south of the Golden Triangle for tomorrow's severe weather with their Slight Risk issuance (above image). We'll see how it goes with the overnight computer model runs and the surface conditions tomorrow morning. I'll be posting updates for the MSU/Starkville, MS region on my Twitter and Facebook accounts tomorrow on this threat, along with any other significant severe weather developments in the South.

2/12 - 4:30pm - Snow in Mississippi Today

It snowed quite a bit around Starkville today, but none of it really stuck to the ground because temperatures were just too warm. Locations to our south that received more precipitation were able to cool down enough for accumulating snow due to evaporative cooling. If the precipitation had taken a more northerly track last night and this morning, we might have had some accumulation. For a few hours this morning and afternoon we did have some moderate snow falling, which made for some photographic views around Mississippi State University's campus. Check out my video compilation from this morning below:



Be sure watch this video in HD by clicking switching to 720p or 1080p (for newer computers with fast connections).

1/24 - 1pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast

A chilly week is shaping up as the rain exits the area today and cooler air filters in. Highs should stay in the 50's for most of the week. Our next chance of rain will happen on Thursday night into Friday as a potent cold front comes through. The cold air behind the front may be strong enough to give us some flurries on Friday afternoon or evening, but I do expect most of the precipitation to fall as rain. It should be noted that a southward shift in the track of this system on Thursday/Friday could bring us more frozen precipitation. Temperatures in the 30's and 40's will return next weekend.

2/20 - 6pm - Snow On the Way

While it won't be much, snow should be an issue late tomorrow as temperatures drop below freezing and rain changes over. Temperatures should actually warm up to near 40 tomorrow, if not over that. As the cold front passes, I think we'll be left with enough moisture to squeeze out a one inch accumulation around the area. A few isolated areas could get up to two inches, but that should be the upper extent of this system. There are still timing and moisture issues to be solved at this point, but I'm thinking that we should switch to all snow between 5pm and 6pm. If the front comes through more slowly than anticipated, snow will stick around longer and accumulations will increase. Add to that the fact that the new 18z GFS just painted a little more available moisture near us than the 12z, which could bump amounts up a bit. I must say that this system is being finicky at just under 24 hours out. I'll have a complete update in the video forecast tomorrow. For now, plan on receiving about an inch of snow.

We could see a few flurries tonight as this system approaches, with a low just below freezing tomorrow morning. The rain should start around noon, but again, the snow will hold off until dinnertime. After a high of 30 on Sunday, temperatures will slowly rise to 50 by Wednesday. We should hold in the lower 50's for the balance of next week. Next chance of rain will happen on Wednesday, with heavy rain possible for Thursday.

1/15 - 4:30pm - ZERO

The number zero will be popping up on thermometers across the area tonight as this cold trough sticks around. I think the inner-city areas will stay a touch above zero, but I think the rest of town will get down to zero or very close to it tonight. Wind chills will be near -10 (Wind Chill Advisory in effect), so bundle up tomorrow morning as you head out. Tomorrow's high will be a degree or two cooler than today, so we should end up around 16 by the afternoon.

A warmer weekend (if you want to call this warmer) is in store, with the possibility of barely getting above freezing. It still looks good for a few flurries on Sunday morning, but I think we'll be moisture starved for at least the early part of next week. Warmer temperatures should return by that point as well.

Keep those hats and gloves on!

1/13 - 3:45pm - Cold Air Settles In

The morning rush hour and the rest of the day were spared from icy conditions due to a later passing of the cold front this morning. Limited backside moisture also decreased the amount of snow showers we saw as well. Overall, we were pretty lucky that the front didn't come through earlier and cause a flash-freeze situation on the roads.

Our next clipper system comes through on Wednesday afternoon, giving us a chance for a little more snow throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Since the low will be tracking north of the area, don't expect much in the way of accumulation, if any at all. A couple models started putting the storm on a more southerly track last night, but they haven't put it far enough south to make a big difference here. Places north of Indianapolis will see a few inches of snow.

Cold temperatures are staying around for a while, with a high in the mid 30s tomorrow. By Thursday and Friday, temperatures won't even reach 20 degrees for a high! Lows for both of those days will most likely be in the single digits. Stay warm!

12/31 - 3:30pm - Come On... Give Me More Moisture!

First of all, the flurries we had this morning were unexpected because they were supposed to occur to our east. The system took a slight westward jog, so we saw some flurries and snow showers before noon. Made for a nice start to the day!

Everything still stands weather-wise from yesterday's post, except for the fact that less moisture will be present for Friday morning's dismal snow shower/flurry activity. Still looks like rain for this weekend as well.

The thing I'm watching right now is this Tuesday storm, which has gone south of us on the models. We're still getting snow, but the north end of the system is moisture-starved. Quite honestly, this is a good thing because the GFS is notorious (at least this season) for putting storms too far south and then making northward corrections just a couple days out. This happened near Thanksgiving when that storm corrected north a couple days beforehand and we saw rain. So, I wouldn't bet on snow for Tuesday yet, but I'd keep watch. I think we'll have a good idea where this thing will go by the weekend. I really hope this won't turn out to be a false positive like the other storms this year, but I'm optimistic given the fact that cooler air is on the way.

Have a wonderful New Year's Eve!

12/3 - 9pm - Rain Coming Through Now, A Little Snow Later

Doppler Plus is showing the rain that's coming through the area as we speak:



As the cold front associated with this rain comes through tonight, we may have a few flurries or snow showers in the early morning hours. Little or no accumulation is expected. Watch out on the bridges and overpasses tomorrow morning as temperatures could hit or go below freezing tonight.

This front will leave us cold and dry through the weekend, with highs only in the 30s. A few sprinkles or snow showers will make their way into the area by Saturday as a clipper (low pressure from Canada) passes to our north.

Rain looks likely for Tuesday and Wednesday, with the possibility of some wet snow on the backside of this system. Too much warm air will accompany the front for any good snow, but I think we could see a brief period of snow as low pressure wraps around and heads up to the Northeast.

I've said this a few times over the last few days and I think we're starting to see the fruition of it on the models. Cold, very cold air is getting ready to sit on us from Canada and storms are ripe and ready to ride along the southern edge of that trough. The GFS is throwing major hints that we could see something late next weekend. I won't go into date or amount specifics, but with all this cold air coming and storms riding the southern edge, I'm inclined to think we could see an accumulating snow within the next couple weeks. We'll see if this can hold up on the models for the next few days.

12/2 - 7pm - A Short Warm Up

We're in for a treat tomorrow as highs soar into the lower 50s. Rain should come into the area by nightfall and will end as a brief period of snow showers by the early morning hours. No accumulation is expected tonight. This front will really put a cap on our temperatures over the next few days, with highs in the 30s from Thursday to Sunday. A few flurries or snow showers are possible by Saturday as a clipper system passes to our north, but shouldn't pose a chance of accumulation.

Rain will again enter the forecast by Monday with highs back in the 40s. It still looks like we'll see an active pattern starting in a little over a week from now, so get ready for the drama of accumulating snow in the forecast.

12/1 - 4:30pm - A Few More Snow Showers, Meteorological Winter

Welcome to the first day of meteorological winter! Even though astronomical winter starts on December 22nd, meteorologists consider this day the start of Winter due to the winter-like weather we get in the Northern Hemisphere around this time. And boy did we get some today!

It was one of those moments in multiple classrooms across Kentuckiana where someone would suddenly shout, "It's SNOWING!!!" Much to the dismay of most, the snow did not stick because we were well below freezing when it started falling at 12:30 this afternoon in the downtown area. What appears to be the last batch of snow showers is coming out of Indiana as we speak and they should arrive in the next hour or so. We're still at 36 degrees, so even a dusting looks out of the question at this point. I thought we would've at least seen a coating of snow on the grass this morning in the Metro, but the temperature only bottomed out at 35.

If you don't like the cold air that came with this system, don't worry. We'll warm up into the lower 40's tomorrow and shoot for lower 50's on Wednesday with some rain. That rain could end as a period of snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We'll drop back into the 30's for Thursday and into the weekend as well. A few snow showers could be around for Saturday and Sunday as a clipper system passes to our north.

Stay tuned... we're going into an active pattern starting next week. Too early to predict any one storm at the moment, but I think we'll have our hands full for the next few weeks trying to decipher the track of each.

11/20 - 8:45pm - Now That's Snow!

That was what I call a real first snow! The flurries began this afternoon at around 4pm downtown and are still going on in some areas right now. Visibility dropped a little bit as heavier batches of flurries came through. As I drove by the airport this afternoon on I-65 it was very difficult to see the UPS hub or the terminal with all the snow. We got a dusting on the grass at my house, so things definitely look winter-like here! The radar shows a few more flurries coming at us from Southwestern Indiana, but nothing heavy at all. A few slick spots could develop overnight as temperatures dive below freezing, but I really don't expect any big issues tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow's high temperature will be 36, so bundle up! Temperatures will ease into the 40's for the weekend with some rain expected for Sunday night into Monday.

11/19 - 7pm - Cold Enough??

I awoke to a very startling number on my thermometer this morning, 15.5 degrees. Lows in Louisville were in the mid 20's, but once you got out of the city temperatures nosedived. Another cold night is on tap with a low just below freezing in the city and even lower temperatures in the suburbs and rural areas. Tomorrow will be a repeat of today, except we'll see a high near 43 instead of 48 for today. Friday will be the real wake-up call for the upcoming winter: a few clouds with a high near 36.

Looks like rain will be the main story for early next week as a reinforcing cold front comes through. The HPC is calling for between .1" and .25" on the QPF at this point and the models seem to be in agreement with that. Could squeeze out a flurry or two on the backside of this system.

11/18 - 5:15pm - Can You Say Wind Chill?

It was bitterly cold this morning to begin with, but once you stepped out into the wind it was just frigid! Our temperature now is 37 degrees, but our windchill is at 31 right now. Compare that to 30 degrees this morning and a wind chill in the upper teens to lower 20s. Yikes!

Tomorrow will have an improvement in temperature, with a high just shy of 50. Thursday could actually see some of the flurries I talked about on Saturday as a low pressure system passes to our northeast. That system will bring colder air to our neck of the woods for Friday, so expect a high of 40 then. Some light rain, mixing with a pinch of snow by Monday, will be possible for the weekend.

My discussion yesterday on the storm that disappeared from the GFS is still valid. We should know by tomorrow or Thursday if this storm is really hiding from the models or not. I will note that the current GFS run does take a smaller version the fabled storm from the Pacific Northwest through the Plains, but it falls apart completely before it gets here. Chances are pretty small that this thing will reappear, but it needs to be watched for.

11/17 - 7:15pm - A Bit Chilly Don't You Think?

Today's high of 43 was a shrill reminder of the winter months to come! We had some flurries flying around this morning in some areas along with some this afternoon. Any and all flurry activity should cease by tonight, leading the way for a few clouds and a high struggling to reach 40 by tomorrow. Temperatures will moderate a bit for the rest of this week, but we should stay below 50. The next chance of some light precipitation will happen late this weekend and into early next week.

For all you snow-lovers... the storm I talked about on Thursday (scroll down two posts) came back on the models yesterday in an altered form, prompting much excitement from the online weather-geek base. The storm has disappeared off the models today, but some schools of thought think that this might be a normal part of the GFS model, particularly blogger Henry Margusity at AccuWeather. What I mean is that storms in the long range disappear in the medium range (3-5 days out) and then reappear just a couple days before they happen. This happened to us this past March when that storm disappeared 4-5 days out and then reappeared just a little over 48 hours before the storm started. I'm not forecasting a snowstorm or wish-casting here, just putting it out there that we need to be vigilant when looking at the models this time of year. Big storms that disappear a few days out will need to be watched for in case they come back.

11/12 - 9pm - Dreary Weather

I don't think I saw the sun come out today! This dreary weather will stick around until Sunday after this upper level low passes, with the cold weather sticking around even after that. We're in for more rain tonight, but it'll taper off tomorrow and then restart Friday afternoon. The rain will continue Saturday and then change to snow showers on Saturday night as the temperature falls below freezing. We're forecast to be in the upper 20's at night in the Metro area, so there could be some slick spots as the wet roads freeze overnight Saturday and into Sunday. My thinking is that we could have a light coating of snow on the grass, especially in the suburbs, if the temperature does fall into the 20s. We'll see about that!

11/7 - 4:30pm - Cooler Week Ahead, Hurricane Paloma

A cooler weekend and week lies ahead due to the passage of a cold front today. Highs will struggle to reach 50 around the area tomorrow with the same story playing out for Sunday. Looks like we'll stay in the 50's next week with plenty of rain chances. Also, the GFS model has flurries in the forecast for sometime around the 19th or so. This is still way out, but we're getting to the time of year where snow flurries are a real possibility.

Its late in the season, but Hurricane Paloma has been making headlines in the Caribbean as a Category 2 storm. It looks like it will weaken a bit and then cut through Cuba this weekend:

10/24 - 5pm - Drying Out

It's been a dreary, wet day for the area as over an inch of rain fell. We received .92" of rain here, but readings of over an inch have been recorded in town and at the airport. Its safe to say that this is the last rain we'll see for quite a while, as the models all show a dry week ahead with high pressure in control. Looks dry for the week after as well at this point.

We're still on track for the flurries on Monday morning. The NAM doesn't have the moisture like yesterday, but at least the temperatures are markedly colder than yesterday's runs for Monday morning. The GFS is staying fairly consistent with temperature, but it's been off and on with moisture on the last few runs. Either way, we'll have cold mornings next week and the possibility of some flurries early Monday morning.

10/23 - 7:30pm - Bring the Umbrella Along!

Tomorrow is the day that you will need the umbrella. Rain from a cold front to our west will overspread the area tonight and last into tomorrow evening. It should be all said and done by early evening tomorrow, with over an inch of rain expected around the area according to the HPC. I hope everyone enjoyed the high of 73 today, because tomorrow will only reach into the mid 50's. We'll recover to near 60 by Sunday, but it looks downhill after that. Temperatures will stay in the lower to middle 50's for next week, with possible 40 degree temperatures looming the week after.

All the hoopla about some snow flurries next week that I talked about is apparently looking more and more valid. The GFS is showing very cold mornings in the 30's on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week. With a small chunk of moisture coming through on Monday morning, it looks as though we will actually get a few flurries around the area. It will be too warm for any accumulation, but temperatures aloft will definitely be cold enough to generate snow. The NAM has even more moisture than the GFS on Monday morning, but it doesn't have any snow due to higher temperatures on that model. The DGEX model looks like the NAM, but temperatures are cold enough to support snow. I'm disregarding the amount of snow on these models at this point because a couple of them look too high, but we'll see. There may be additional flurries on Tuesday or Wednesday morning as well, but we'll have to wait for additional model runs. At any rate, there will not be any accumulation. At least its fun to think about!