1/14 - 10pm - All Sorts of Interesting Weather Today!

Henderson County, TN

The Wind Advisory that was in place for southwestern portions of Tennessee today was canceled at noon because wind speeds across the region were falling just below the 25 mph necessary. Nevertheless it was quite breezy and today's high in Jackson got up to 54 degrees, well above what was expected. Some clouds from the Alberta Clipper system (explained below) did make it into the region and I even managed to find some mammatus clouds, which are pictured on the right, in Henderson County, TN this morning. You usually find these underneath a springtime thunderstorm, but in this instance I think they may have been caused by snow hitting the layer of dry air in place underneath the clouds. Aside from the oddities of today's weather, the new week looks warm until Tuesday when showers and storms will give way to another cold snap and again another gradual warm up. Check out my forecast on WBBJ this morning (my first one in 2012!) below for more details:

What is an Alberta Clipper? Put simply it's a fast-moving area of low pressure that dives southward from the area near Alberta, Canada in the wintertime and spreads light snow to the Midwestern states. This particular Clipper was an interesting one because it centered its maximum snowfall in a very small area as the storm moved through Kentucky and Tennessee. More specifically, this area was just south of Louisville from Harrison County, Indiana to just south of Lexington, KY. Accumulations vary widely in Louisville because of the scattered nature of the snow bands that moved through, but they seem to range between a half inch to around two inches. South of town there are reports of more than three inches around Bardstown and Taylorsville! NWS Louisville's forecast graphic from earlier this evening points out pretty well where the most snow has fallen and you can tell exactly where the heavy snow band sat this afternoon. I drove through this band near Radcliff, KY on my way from Jackson, TN to Louisville and I can verify that it was indeed very heavy as indicated on the map. I took a quick video of today's snow at my house in Southeast Louisville just as I got home for my long weekend:

12/17 - 12pm - Louisville Snow Chances Increasing!

This weekend's snow has really cranked up on the computer models over the past 24 hours. Moisture on both the NAM and GFS has increased considerably, meaning we could be left with over two inches of snow by Sunday night. The combination of the coastal winter storm giving us some outlying snow and the round of clipper systems from Canada should be beneficial for snow totals, but I'm just a little worried about surface temperatures. I think we'll top out at 33 or 34 on Saturday, which should be when the bulk of the snow is falling. This will melt things a little bit, but I think things will cool down quickly at night and snow will still be falling. A little burst of snow on Sunday should top off our accumulations of 2 or more inches.

The Christmas Eve storm is still up in the air at this point, but I think our chances are getting better for an accumulating snow. The 6z run of the GFS had the storm going to our south (that's good for snow here) and put down over 5 inches of snow. The 12z has a strange solution with mostly snow here, but the low pressure associated with the storm takes an odd path northward to Tennessee then cuts east. We'll see how this track goes, but I think the fact that the storm is still on the computer models and that there is a potential track that favors snow for us is a good thing.

12/15 - 11:30am - Clipper Snow, Christmas?

A clipper system (low pressure that dives south from Canada) is forecast to come through the region this weekend, spreading light snow around Louisville. It looks like there will be some accumulations, just enough to whiten the ground by the latest estimates. I'm not terribly sure of the exact amount of snow we'll receive because this system has been bouncing around on the computer models. The main idea is that snow showers will start on Friday night and continue through Saturday.

You may have seen my various hints on Twitter and Facebook about some sort of snowstorm developing next week just in time for Christmas. The GFS long-range model had been advertising a potentially potent storm on December 24th for us, but that has since disappeared in the last few runs of the model (which could be due to the fact that the GFS model had some technical upgrades implemented today). Fear not! That storm has been replaced by several rounds of light snow between the 22nd and the 25th, meaning we still have a chance for a white Christmas if this happens. We're still 10 days away, so the forecast models will be very erratic and our big storm may even come back. On the flip side, there's a good chance that the snow could disappear completely and we'd be left with a cold, dry Christmas. Either way it'll most likely be cold enough to snow. Don't get too excited yet because this is a tricky forecast, but keep in mind that we could be dealing with some snow on or around Christmas.

1/19 - 10am - We Finally Got Some Snow!

It was snowing pretty hard until just after midnight across Jefferson County. A second batch of snow showers came through around 3am this morning and gave us our final batch of snow for the morning. We got exactly 1 inch at our house this morning, which nearly covered up the grass. Here are some photos:



There is a chance for a few more snow showers today and tonight, but I don't think they'll be as strong as last night's. High temperatures will stay in the 20s for today and tomorrow, but should warm up into the 40s for late week.

1/16 - 4:45pm - Get This Cold Air Outta Here!

I wanted to go back to sleep after our weather station displayed this at around 6am this morning: -3.7°F. Yikes! Temperatures in the city held at -1 for a couple hours this morning before shooting back up to 17 this afternoon. It really doesn't matter if it's -1 or -3, it was downright cold anyway!

Tomorrow will feel like Spring compared to today, with a high around 40 after a low tonight of around 7. As that clipper approaches, temperatures will drop to near freezing for Sunday.

The computer models have been getting a little more aggressive with the clipper tracking north of us on Sunday. Right now, I'm seeing around an inch of snow on the GFS and NAM, with pretty decent agreement on track and temperature at the moment. We'll have to watch this, but I think this is a pretty solid forecast based on the track of the last few clippers this week.

1/13 - 3:45pm - Cold Air Settles In

The morning rush hour and the rest of the day were spared from icy conditions due to a later passing of the cold front this morning. Limited backside moisture also decreased the amount of snow showers we saw as well. Overall, we were pretty lucky that the front didn't come through earlier and cause a flash-freeze situation on the roads.

Our next clipper system comes through on Wednesday afternoon, giving us a chance for a little more snow throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Since the low will be tracking north of the area, don't expect much in the way of accumulation, if any at all. A couple models started putting the storm on a more southerly track last night, but they haven't put it far enough south to make a big difference here. Places north of Indianapolis will see a few inches of snow.

Cold temperatures are staying around for a while, with a high in the mid 30s tomorrow. By Thursday and Friday, temperatures won't even reach 20 degrees for a high! Lows for both of those days will most likely be in the single digits. Stay warm!

1/9 - 3:30pm - Nice Warm Up Today... Enjoy It While You Can!

After barely getting above freezing yesterday, today's temperatures have felt great. Even though we had some wind in the afternoon hours, 45 isn't too bad for this time of year! Get ready for rain late tonight and into tomorrow as clipper system #1 comes through the region. A few snow showers are possible late tomorrow evening as this system exits the area.

The second clipper will come through on Monday night into Tuesday:


(Click image to see a larger view)

The past few runs of the GFS model have been trending toward rain at the beginning of this system, but as you can see in the 12z run above (at 96 hours out) this will end as some snow on the cold backside. Accumulations will be light, but I think we might be able to squeeze out an inch or slightly more by the time this is done on Tuesday.

Our third clipper will be here for Wednesday night into Thursday:



The models show light precipitation from that now, but I think this might be an underestimate. With a powerful cold front like this coming through and Gulf Moisture present in the south, I'm not sold on the lightness of the moisture that the GFS shows above. Give this one some time... the elements are there for a storm. With the very cold air in place behind this front, rain/snow conversion ratios will be higher (see yesterday's post for more on that).

After these three systems are done, extremely cold air will set in with a mighty trough sinking from Canada. Here's what the Louisville NWS says about it:

SUPER LARGE 1050+ HIGH PRESSURE CELL LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THEN SETTLE SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...VERY COLD AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED/THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SOME 25 TO 30 DEG BELOW NORMAL...WHICH WOULD EQUATE TO THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...AND THE COLDEST TEMPS WITHIN THE LAST 10+ YEARS. BRRRR!

Dry weather will dominate with this super-cold air. So, we need to get snow with either the Tuesday or Wednesday clippers before this dry air comes in (that is, if you want snow).

1/8 - 6pm - The Cold is Coming, Maybe Snow?

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It's been bitterly cold across the metro today, with a high temperature just above freezing at midnight. We've been falling since then and winds picked up this afternoon, so there was definitely a sub-20 degree windchill to deal with. Temperatures will rise into the 40s tomorrow as an area of low pressure approaches the area. Accompanying this low will be some rain for late Friday into Saturday. Highs for the weekend will stay just below 40 with a few flurries or snow showers possible as the area of low pressure exits the area.

The super-cold air that has been well-publicized over the past week is still coming, but it's up in the air as to when it will really get here. Here's the interesting part: The models are injecting more moisture into this pattern. As I said yesterday, the GFS has a history (at least this season) of underestimating moisture in the long range. A couple clipper systems will come through early in the week, but it's difficult to tell which of these would give us snow. My thinking right now is that the Monday clipper will be too far north to give us any snow, but the Tuesday one might be right on the money for an accumulating snow. The last couple runs of the GFS are delaying the cold air until Thursday, but I still think that's up in the air due to low placement and phasing issues.

Is there the potential for a big storm in all of this? Yes. Do I see a definite large storm in the cards yet? Absolutely not.

The development in the models of this cold pattern needs more time to mature. There was a large storm on the GFS just days ago with the entrance of this cold air on Tuesday, but it has since reverted back into a normal clipper. This is definitely something to watch, especially if a storm like this pops up again with the later arrival of the cold air on Thursday.

At any rate, any snow that falls will be heavier in the upcoming cold air next week due to conversion ratios. Snow at 28-32 degrees has a conversion ratio of around 10:1, meaning for every .1" of rain there exists a potential for 1" of snow. When we have temperatures in the mid 20's or lower, that ratio could go up to 15:1 or higher. That means any weak system could put down some very nice snow amounts! We'll see what happens over the next few days with this cold air and potential snow.

12/5 - 9:30pm - As Promised...

The clipper last night really didn't sink as far south as I thought, but it was pretty close. Indianapolis got a pretty good shot of snow as expected, but we ended up with almost all rain. Temperatures overnight didn't go below 36, which hampered any snow from developing. That was the general consensus on yesterday's forecasts issued on it, but I thought maybe we would've seen a dusting. Just shows how volatile clippers are.

Now, as promised on my video forecast last Sunday, we're going to look at the long range prospect of some snow. As of now the GFS has a December 17th storm lined up for us, which has been showing up well on the model for a couple days or so now. Some model runs have taken it to more of a rain to snow scenario and others want all snow. And of course the amounts of snow in each model have been all over the board. After a really warm week for next week, I think it'll break in some fashion with cold air and some sort of precipitation. The solution that the GFS offers seems to fit, but of course its on the 17th of November, 12 days away from now. This is just something to keep in your back pocket as you prepare for the holidays and to check in on every few days for the next week until this gets sorted out.

Now for the shorter range, which is wet and warm as we head into next week. Tomorrow will be cold and in the mid-30's again, but we'll rise quickly into the 50's by Saturday with some rain from Friday all the way into Wednesday at least. Temperatures then will range from the lower 50's to 60's. So we're getting a reprieve from all this winter weather for this coming up week. We'll see what the week after holds later on.

Maybe the gazillionth time is a charm?

Yes, there will be 2-4" of snow tomorrow. I for one am very excited. This clipper went nuts at about 2:00pm this afternoon on the charts. If you don't believe me, take a look at the current radar:


I think this system has potential. There could be isolated amounts of 4" or more inches and we'll have blowing snow with 30mph winds tomorrow! I'm in full gear getting video stuff ready for tomorrow since this might be my only shot this year. Here it comes!

More Drama...

Here it is point blank: there is a clipper system coming on Saturday. Snows could be anywhere from nothing to 4 inches. What a range, isn't it?

Today's models are taking this thing south and are keeping it there. The GFS wants a Whopper snow (2-4"), whereas the NAM opts for a Junior Whopper with Cheese (1-2"). Our good Mountie weather model in Canada is leaning toward the GFS solution with the low pressure tracking south of Louisville (South of Louisville=Snow, North of Louisville=Little or no snow).

This is 48 hours away and there is no consensus. With 21st century innovations like the quad-core processor, iPhone and such, you would think we would have a good grip on the weather for 2 days out. Sadly, this is not the case.

Anyway, the NAM has been good on the last storms, but there are more and more models starting to side with the GFS on this one. The NAM may submit to the GFS-like situation tomorrow I think. Sadly, I think this is our very last chance for winter snow at the moment.

Why? Well, there is a huge warm up next week that will put us in the 50 degree range and maybe even 60 later on. I don't think we will pull out of this either. By the time this pattern breaks, it might be too late for snow (although there are signs it could break in early March). The only exception would be on the 26th possibly, with a hellacious trough coming through that could bring heavy rain. On the backside of this storm at night, it will be very cold and moisture will still be plentiful unlike the last storm. This is just so far out and so warm though, I don't think anything will happen snow wise unless the trough is really packin' a punch.

Keep watch on Saturday, I think this could be our singular snow event for the season.

This could be either nice or REALLY NICE!!!

Well, this little clipper thing has turned into a BIG clipper thing almost overnight. This morning, the NAM and GFS dropped it south, just as I thought it could. Folks, I won't kid you. We could see a potential 5-6" inches out of this IF it shifts a mere 25-50 miles south. I am estimating 2-4" inches though, out of a little skepticism and reality. This will occur at 2pm tomorrow and end at 8pm, prime for an early school cancellation. There are some models putting this thing through Louisville, including the famed GFS. I'll stick with the NAM though.

I want to urge you now (I hope I don't look like a doophus if this thing falls through), get needed supplies NOW. These systems are unpredictable on strength sometimes and like to pop out a really big storm. IF we end up with 5-6 inches of snow, this will certainly close school for a day or more and basically shut down the city for a couple days. This event won't be as bad as the Dec 2004 storm (10"), but nevertheless any snow in Louisville is a big deal.

I heard a report on WHAS 11 that JCPS people are working with meteorologists to determine an early dismissal tomorrow, which looks ominous at this time due to the 2pm beginning of the storm.

I will post later tonight and after school tomorrow as this develops. Hold in there, this could be big if things come together just right. I do want to urge that it won't be a record breaker, but it will surely be the biggest storm so far this season.

By the way, did you know that today is Weatherperson's day? I didn't know either until this morning...

My Clipper Senses are Tingling...

The GFS has a nice clipper in here for Tuesday. The NAM has it going south of us. This has me concerned for 2 reasons...

1. Clippers are some of the worst weather events to forecast in the world. They change course quickly and intensify with even the slightest bit of moisture flow interception. If there's a model putting this thing north of us when we've been seeing actual storm tracks south of the model estimates, we may indeed get this one.
2. The temperature is going to be VERY cold Tuesday night, I'm talking single digits. You know that I've said that the colder it is the fluffier and bigger the snow flakes get. Even though the most this clipper can dump out is .2 inches of liquid precipitation, the snow conversion amounts will be way higher than 10:1 (25:1 maybe?).

You know the drill, I can't estimate accumulations until the GFS and NAM stop their domestic dispute. Once that occurs I can really hit the accumulations head on. I've heard estimates as to how much snow this thing can potentially produce, but no placement on that yet. At the moment, the GFS says it will be here. The NAM says it will go north to Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Columbus. Who shall we believe? I don't know yet, the NAM messed up our first snow storm and the GFS beefed it on the Thursday storm at this far out in the forecast. This is a very risky system; a good forecaster would leave the snow chance in his prediction and wait for a sure consensus on the models before saying, "Milk and Bread!!!!!" (Which could be possible if we play our cards right on Tuesday...).

I will laugh if our biggest storm of the year comes from a clipper system (not saying it will).

Episode II: The Clipper Strikes Back

Here comes another clipper system tonight, just like the one we had last night. We got about an inch, which melted by 1pm this afternoon. Could be some minor accumulations, but don't get excited.

Long term is looking odd. I see potential for the mighty snow storm to end all storms, but then I also see a warm-up in the extreme long range (16 days out). As you know, the GFS model likes to make false predictions this far out so take it with a small grain of salt. Again, I still need a couple days to see how these potential storms could develop or not develop...

Next week you will walk out of your house and say...

When you walk outside next week, especially in the morning, feel free to shout any "discouraging word" of your choice towards the air. Folks, its going to get so cold that you will want to. I'm talking lower 20's to maybe even 10's for high temperatures, that's it. That's the price you'll have to pay for some possible snow chances into that time period. One thing that we can probably circumvent next week is the problem of having precipitation but no cold air. I know I've been heckled about the busted snow forecast on Sunday all week so far. Understand though that even the National Weather Service called for an accumulating snow, and this warm air we received was just out of the blue.

Enough about history, let's look forward now. This cold air I've been harping on will harbor some clipper systems (they may call them Alberta Clippers or Saskatchewan Screamers on TV after the Canadian provinces where these systems form). These could drop somewhere around 1-3 inches if you get a good one. I am only seeing flurries and dustings though through Jan 31st with these though. Around Feb 1st, things start getting interesting. For a few model runs now, a Feb 2-5 storm has been showing up that's not a clipper system. I can't speculate on accumulations until this weekend, but if this system gingerly slides north a little bit and brings the heavier moisture, it's not out of the question that this could be our "Storm of the season" if our cards are played right.

Again, temperatures are ripe for snow. I've noticed that moisture amounts are accurate only a week out so I can't really speculate on any of the Feb storms I'm seeing right now coming into the neighborhood. Just know this, come February 1st there will be storms nearing the area due to increased jet activity.

One last thing, don't write of our winter weather chances yet because its almost February. Tons of our historic snow storms came in the Feb-March period, especially the 22.4" 1998 one. What I'm trying to get across is that we are not done yet, proof of this lying on our current computer models for Feb 1-7, which are very active in this neck of the woods. Think snowy thoughts!