So yesterday I was on here describing how bleak our outlook was for snow this Christmas. Today the models pulled a 180 and are now showing a possible storm for this part of the country. Do we get snow from this storm? Well, not yet folks. A few things have to get tidied up before we get the big one.
First off we got to make sure this low goes SOUTH of here, not ON TOP OF US, but SOUTH of us (as in the TN mtns). This factor absolutely blasted our last storm to bits.
The second thing we got to get in line is the cold air, which the GFS isn't doing real well with. Other models such as the EURO are taking the cold air and putting it here for that, so the GFS is just being stubborn like the NAM-WRF was the other day.
The third and final factor in this is the NAO value, which is the North Atlantic Oscillation (just the tilt of the airmass in the N. Atlantic). That is now forecast to be a POSITIVE tilt, which means this low can swiftly exit the US to the Atlantic via the Carolinas. This helps because it keeps the low from cutting northeast in a hurry, which again killed our last storm.
So, I'm going to keep my eyes peeled on this one, especially since it is a Christmas storm. So here's what I'm going to do; I'm going to put a Christmas snow chance at the bottom of each blog post from now until Christmas to let you see exactly what I'm thinking at the moment. Until Christmas though, we'll see highs soaring into the 60's! Looks like I'll be flying my model airplane on Friday!
Christmas Snow Chance: 30%
No comments:
Post a Comment