7/7 - 10:30pm - Massive Heat Wave Ends with Storms

Today capped off the longest, hottest stretch of weather in Louisville that most people can remember. Today's 106° high at Louisville International Airport was the hottest it's been since July 14th, 1936 when it got to 107°. That temperature is Louisville's all-time record high and if we didn't have as many clouds as we did this afternoon in the city we would have met or broken it. This ends nine days of 100°+ weather, which is the third-longest stretch of triple digits ever recorded according to NWS Louisville.

Storms that will develop tomorrow will be ushering in cooler temperatures, which is welcome news! The bad part is that some of these storms may be severe due to the incredible amount of energy they'll have at their disposal from all the heat. Temperatures in the mid 90's tomorrow with sunshine and high humidity will power an awful lot of instability, or the tendency for air parcels to rise and create thunderstorms. A cold front sinking down from the north that will be stalling out once it passes just to our south will be the focus for storm chances starting tomorrow in the early afternoon in Louisville and lasting through Monday morning.

The main threats from these storms will be wind and hail, but there could also be a threat for some rotating storms too. While winds don't look favorable for any sort of big tornado problems tomorrow, a couple of these rotating storms may get just enough juice to put down a brief spin-up. EHI values in the adjacent image take into account both instability and helicity, which is a product of wind shear. The elevated values you see are powered mostly by instability and just a little bit of helicity, so again, winds aren't that favorable here. The Louisville area is no stranger to summertime tornadoes as you may remember a series of four of them that touched down in late June of last year.

Given the chances for some severe wind and hail tomorrow, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a 15% Slight Risk area for Kentucky. A better chance for severe weather (30%) exists closer to the East Coast where upper-level winds will be stronger as a trough digs down a bit into that area.

3/22 - 4:30pm - Heavy Rain is Gone, but Warm Temps Remain!

Heavy Rain

Did you get drenched? I think we all did. The rain over the past 24 hours has been tremendous, especially across Mississippi as inches and inches have fallen from the pesky system that has been slowly churning through the Plains and now the South. Check out the estimated rainfall map from today below to see what I mean (the totals for West Tennessee are underdone but you get the picture of who saw some tremendous rainfall earlier today!) Most of the rain is now east of West Tennessee and North Mississippi, but a few showers remain and will continue this evening.

More rain will fall tomorrow afternoon as another piece of energy from the same system rotates around the Mid-South. The area in red with the directional arrow coming from it is called a vorticity max. Usually the area where rain and storms develop is east of the vort max as it moves along. Tomorrow's rain won't be as heavy as today's by any stretch of the imagination and it will be more of a scattered nature than today's washout. Once this rain is all said and done by Saturday morning we should be left with a very nice weekend and temperatures warming back up through the upper 70's across West Tennessee and North Mississippi.

The Big Picture

Let's zoom out more and look at the system that's been causing all of this rain as a whole. What we have is an upper-level low in the Plains that is slowly moving eastward. An upper-level low like this one is basically a ball of cold-air that gets cut off from its northerly source because the jet stream kicks north leaves whatever is in the base of the former trough behind. It moves slowly because the jet stream, which usually drives big weather features, is absent from the process after the low gets cut-off. The satellite and radar images coming in from area where the low is are striking... you can see very well the rotation of the low pressure center, which makes it look like a land-based hurricane.

The jet stream being way up north is also why it's been so warm lately. In the winter the jet stream usually dips down from Canada and brings cold air to the USA. Areas north of the jet stream remain cold due to the influence of an arctic air mass while to the south of it there is usually a warm, moist air mass. This winter and now into this spring the jet stream has not really come down from Canada to the eastern half of the nation. The West has had it come down a few times though, which meant snow and cold temperatures for the Pacific Northwest and even down through California. The reason the jet stream stayed so far north is that La Nina (colder than usual ocean temperatures off the coast of Peru) remained pretty consistent throughout the season. In an El Nino pattern, the jet stream comes down to the US with a vengeance.

Record Warmth

The above-average temperatures from this pattern will persist for quite a while it looks like. A cursory glance at some of the long-range models shows that the jet stream will remain somewhere close to this northerly position for the foreseeable future. With that said, comparing this year and month to years past is incredible. This March so far has been the warmest on record in Jackson, TN and Tupelo, MS and the second warmest in Memphis. Jackson is running 10.6 degrees above average for this March. Comparing the year so far to years past, this is the warmest year so far in Memphis and Tupelo, and the second warmest so far in Jackson. These are remarkable numbers and we'll likely see more of these records flash by as the warmth continues. A running list of how this year's heat compares to previous records is available from NWS Memphis.

3/14 - 11:55pm EDT - Record-Breaking Warmth

The warm weather we've been seeing across the region hit record-breaking levels this afternoon. Here is a list of some broken temperature records today:

Jackson, TN: High 84° | Previous Record 80°

Memphis, TN: High 82° | Previous Record 80°

Chattanooga, TN: High 83° | Previous Record 81°

Louisville, KY: High 82° | Previous Record 80°

Paducah, KY: High 82° | Previous Record 78°
Evansville, IN: High 82° | Previous Record 77°

Indianapolis, IN: High 81° | Previous Record 79°

Many other cities in came close to breaking records, especially in Alabama and Middle Tennessee. The ridge over the Eastern US that's funneling all the remarkably unseasonable temperatures into the area will stay put through the weekend, but a few shortwave disturbances aloft will bring storm chances to much of West Tennessee, North Mississippi, and even into Central Kentucky tomorrow and Friday. These storms will be more organized than the spotty ones that developed in eastern portions of West Tennessee and even up through Western Kentucky this afternoon. The crazy-warm temperatures are going to last at least another full week as this strong ridge stays put, so I think to say that spring (or even summer) has sprung before winter officially ended!

4/10 - 1pm - Busy Weekend at WBBJ!

Besides doing weather during my normal morning shift yesterday, I also filled-in for the 6pm and 10pm shows at WBBJ. The weather in Jackson was absolutely gorgeous yesterday and the same goes for today. These record-breaking temperatures won't be around for long though because a cold front will make its way through tomorrow morning. Severe thunderstorms are a good bet as this front makes its way through, and some of these storms could have damaging winds and hail. Get all the details below in my Good Morning West Tennessee and 10pm newscast videos:

8/6 - 11:30am - Tomorrow's the Day!

After a summer full of storm chasing, traveling, and wacky severe weather, it's finally time for me to travel to Mississippi State tomorrow for my first semester there. Move-in day is on Saturday, meaning all those boxes have to come out of the car and into my dorm room. The drive is fairly long (7-8 hours), but it should be fun and I hope that things will go smoothly!

The Louisville National Weather Service office has issued a regional map with 24-hour rainfall totals the morning after the flood:

You can really see how isolated the storm cell was that hovered over Jefferson County that morning. We were shocked to see that we only had .99" at the end of the day on our rain gauge here at home, but this map pretty much confirms that reading. The gym floor at my alma mater duPont Manual High School was flooded during this event, but luckily maintenance crews and administrators were on the scene to help reduce the amount of damage. Great job!

I also wanted to point out that we've just gone through the coolest July ever in the region. We usually have 12 days with 90 degrees or higher in Louisville during July, but this year we had none for the first-time ever. [Coldest July Ever Recorded in the Midwest/Ohio Valley - NWS]

8/4 - 9pm - Just Another Wacky Day in Louisville

Talk about some wacky weather, a surprise flood that damages millions of dollars worth of property, traps many in their vehicles, and knocks out power to thousands of residents. If you told me last night that we would break the all-time record for a one-hour rainfall today with 6 inches in places around the Metro, I would have told you to see a doctor. So, in the last twelve months we've had a record-breaking wind storm, record-breaking ice storm, and a record-breaking surprise flood. Is this really just another day in the wacky realm of Louisville weather?

Many are asking why, what happened? Why did this eastward line of storms this morning suddenly make a 90-degree southward turn over Southern Indiana and slam Louisville? My answer is about as clear as the one from the rest of the meteorological community at the moment: I don't really know. My guess would be something to do with the lower level jet, which is a rapid stream of wind a few thousand feet off the ground. This jet normally activates at night when there is little to no instability, meaning it can power late-evening thunderstorms with little interference from rising parcels of unstable air. The thunderstorms heading eastward this morning may have come in contact with or lost contact with the lower level jet this morning by some fashion and that may have made a difference in the direction they were moving. Technicalities aside, I've never seen a storm system take a sharp turn like that before and it was about as freak of an event as, say, a wind storm from the remnants of hurricane over Kentucky (oh wait a minute...).

Looks like we're going to see more rain in a few hours here in town, but I don't think it will be as heavy as the deluge we had this morning.

7/27 - 9am - It's Hot, But Not Here!

Phoenix, Arizona is under an Excessive Heat Warning today, with an expected high of 113 degrees. Tonight's low will be 89 degrees and the forecast for tomorrow calls for a high of around 114 degrees. Here's what the Phoenix National Weather Service office has to say:

TEMPERATURES RANGING 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WILL RANGE FROM 110 TO 117 DEGREES TODAY AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL OFF OVERNIGHT...

That's hot weather no matter where you're from!

The jet stream may be putting Phoenix under a nice warm ridge right now, but it continues to put Louisville inside a trough with much cooler weather. We may reach 90 tomorrow for the first time this month tomorrow, but if we don't then we will continue the record-breaking cool weather around here. Here's a great link that the NWS in Louisville posted about our cool weather... click here.

Cooler weather continues in Louisville after Tuesday, with a daily storm chance for the rest of the week.

6/29 - 4pm - Rain-Free for Nearly a Week!

We're getting ready to close out the second wettest June on record in Louisville, but you'd never know it by looking at the forecast. This pattern where we have the ridge to our west is keeping all precipitation to our north, and that should continue until at least Saturday with highs in the mid 80's. By then, a low passing to our south may generate some showers and storms up this way. According to the long-range GFS, it looks like we'll pick up our dry pattern right where we left off by then.

4/24 - 7:30pm - First Day in the 80's!

Today was our first day in the 80's for 2009, with 87 degrees for a high. Talk about shattering a ceiling there! Today's temperature was a couple degrees above what was forecast, and tomorrow could very well do the same. Since there will be little or no cloud cover, we could get up to 90 degrees tomorrow and break our previous record of 88 for April 25th. We'll have to watch the thermometers tomorrow!

80's will stick around until Tuesday, when an approaching cold front will generate showers and thunderstorms around the area. It's too early to tell if these will be severe, but I'll keep an eye on it. We shouldn't drop below 75 for highs next week, so the temperature hit from the cold front won't be bad at all.

Derby still looks wet on the GFS model, but luckily we're keeping 70's in the forecast. Now's the time to start crossing your fingers for no rain, we're only a week away!

3/10 - 8pm - Storms and Cooler Weather

We hit 78 degrees at 3:42pm today, which breaks a record of 77 set in 1879. Wow!

Unfortunately, our streak of warm weather is set to end tonight as a cold front and accompanying storms come through. These storms should not be severe due to their post-midnight arrival, but they could be severe in areas to our west later this evening. Overall, there should be a short period of moderate to heavy rain tonight with some lightning and wind.

Get ready for a chilly day tomorrow! After this front passes tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid 40's for both Wednesday and Thursday. A bit of recovery looks likely this weekend, with temperatures rising into the 50's. With this warmth will come a chance of showers for both Saturday and Sunday. 60's may return early next week.

8/23 - 8:30PM - Yet Another 100+ Day

It's not funny anymore. The temperature and humidity were so high today that I broke a sweat just walking around outside for a minute. We hit a record of 99 today, just above the 98 degree record of 1959. Tomorrow will see highs in the 100's before we cool of (if you want to call it that) into the upper 90's for Saturday.

Another item of note today was the sighting of a funnel cloud in the western suburbs of Chicago. Some damage also occurred with the passing of that storm, like a roof blowing off a warehouse. Luckily (or not if you want rain) we won't see that kind of weather around here for a little while.

Finally, the tropics are staying quiet for now. There are a few little tropical wave, but nothing worth noting. I do think it was interesting to see how Dean started as a strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa and revved up to the huge cat. 5 monster it became. The GFS had the storm on the map even before the low left Africa. Sure, the GFS was grossly wrong on the placement of the storm that far out, but it at least accurately depicted it as developing into a major hurricane.

8/20 - 6pm - Some Changes...

Remnants of Tropical Depression Erin will come and soak us down tonight. This is great news because we are desperately in need of the rain. Since it was hard to see this system coming up here on Saturday's model runs, I didn't really put a good chance of rain in my forecast. That's change #1.

Change #2 is Thursday. No, it will not storm on Thursday like I said on Saturday forecast. Later runs of the GFS and NAM now totally erase this chance and instead put a decent chance of storms on Saturday.

Now that the changes are out of the way, lets move on to Dean. The hurricane is packing winds of 150mph right now, which still puts it a category 4. The storm will intensify to a category 5 with up to 160mph winds before making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. While this storm will cause mass destruction in Mexico, there is little threat to Texas right now. The only real risk Texas faces now is the possibility of heavy rain from either the remnants of Dean, or one of its outside rain bands.

Oh yeah, we're still making heat records! This is the 22nd day in a row in the 90's or above, an all time record

8/19 - 7pm - Quick Sunday Update...

It looks like Hurricane Dean will present little impact on the US. The current outlook has the storm hitting the Yucatan then on to the mainland of Mexico. The bad part is that it will devastate the resort towns of the Yucatan Peninsula, like Cancun.

We are going to continue to notch up the heat here. We did break 90 today, so we have tied the all-time record streak of 21 days in the 90's or higher. We'll get some spotty storms this evening with a better coverage area for storms tomorrow. After that we look dry again.

8/8 - 5pm - 102 Degree Record Tied

We have tied the 102 degree record for this day back in 1930. Wow. I can't believe we're seeing multiple days in a row with triple digit temperatures after years without any. My home thermometer topped out at 99.7 degrees today because I live in a suburb with a lessened heat island effect. But still, 99 is HOT! I can't remember a time in Louisville in the past decade when it was this hot for this long, although it has happened before. Breaking two records yesterday (for the highest high and highest low temperature) was also unfathomable. Tomorrow promises more of the same, but we will "cool" down into the lower to mid 90's for the weekend. The heat index for tomorrow will breach 110... Yuck. I don't know if I can bear this much longer. It is so hot that I start sweating the minute I open the front door!