8/27 - 9:30pm - Update on Isaac's Expected Gulf Coast Landfall

Tropical Storm Isaac is teetering on the edge of becoming a hurricane this evening with winds of 70 mph as of this writing. The threshold for a Category 1 hurricane is 74 mph. The storm motion has slowed down over the past few hours, now moving northwest at only 10 mph. Issac continues to run into issues that prevent it from rapid intensification, which is certainly good news. The latest issue is a batch of dry air that is currently being pulled into the center of the storm. Without an uninhibited source of moist air the storm cannot form a defined eye or intensify very well. The dry air is why Isaac is lopsided right now with most of the intense winds on the south side.

How long will it be until this dry air is finished working through the storm? Probably a few more hours, possibly lasting into the early morning hours tomorrow if current model forecasts are correct. Speaking of models, the current track from the National Hurricane Center takes Isaac right into the Eastern Louisiana/Mississippi Coast areas late tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning as a weak Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. With the lack of organization we're seeing right now it may only be a Category 1 at landfall. The latest computer model tracks, the spaghetti plots as you've probably heard about and seen over the past few days, have tightened up on a landfall location somewhere around New Orleans. It's worth noting that some of these models are now trending eastward after a massive amount of successive westward jogs in recent days. It doesn't appear that this landfall will take place further east than Biloxi, Mississippi given the current motion of the storm and model data, but the exact landfall location won't be the big story with this storm.

Storm surge exceedance probabilities

The big story here is how big and how slow this storm is. Sure, there will be some wind damage along the coast as the storm makes landfall, but the large area that Isaac covers means that quite an expansive area along the Gulf Coast will experience other effects from it. Storm surge at or above ten feet is possible in locations from New Orleans to Pascagoula, MS and rainfall amounts over a foot are forecast over much of Central and Southern Mississippi and Eastern Louisiana. Isaac will slow down even more than its current speed once it gets over land so heavy rain will be a good bet across much of the Gulf Coast states until we get into the weekend. Inland flooding will be a problem with the deluge that Isaac with unleash on the region as it crawls northward.

Rainfall through 7pm CDT Saturday

As far as local effects in North Mississippi and West Tennessee, Isaac will bring very heavy rain and winds with gusts in some cases near 40 mph. Starkville, MS may be looking at a six or more inch rainfall scenario through Saturday evening and areas in West Tennessee like Jackson will likely see more than three inches of rain. This highly depends on Isaac's exact track so some areas will see much more rain than others.

With just about any landfalling hurricane you can expect the threat of isolated tornadoes, and Isaac will be no different. The turning of winds with height in a hurricane or tropical storm create favorable wind shear for tornadoes to form in stronger parts of it. Due to this potential threat, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for most of Mississippi and parts of Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida.


So overall we're not looking at Isaac to be a major hurricane at landfall, but the effects from it will be widespread due to it's large size. It's a good thing that folks in a wide area are preparing for this storm since it could be a long haul given the slow motion that's expected from it.

8/30 - 7:45pm - Tropics Becoming Very Active / Calm in MS

The tropics have so-called "roared to life" over the past few days as Danielle, Earl, and Fiona have formed in the Atlantic. Danielle is no longer a hurricane and still poses no threat to land, so you can write that storm off. Hurricane Earl is the one making headlines as a Category 4 storm right now with sustained winds of 135mph. There's a chance this storm could become an ominous Category 5 storm over the next 24 hours as it nears the Outer Banks of North Carolina. There's much concern over Earl's effects on the East Coast, especially because the projected path of the storm (seen on left) has shifted closer and closer to the Outer Banks and much of New England over the past couple of days. The consensus among the various computer models (the 'spaghetti plot' to the right) is that Earl's center will stay off-shore, but it's too early to be sure about that because of the model inaccuracies and last-minute corrections that come with any storm. Should Earl track further west than anticipated, the East Coast will have quite a mess to contend with later this week. Rip currents and high waves from the storm passing offshore will be bad enough. A land falling Earl would really take things to the next level. Tropical Storm Fiona has also formed today, but it's way too early to tell if that storm will curve out to sea, hit the East Coast, or travel into the Gulf of Mexico.

Here in Mississippi we've had on and off rain over the past couple of days, but nothing all too heavy. As our air dries out from moist easterly flow from the Atlantic we've had all week, we should see a gradual decrease in clouds over the next couple days with dew points falling below 70 degrees. Our next chance of rain will happen on Friday as another cold front approaches and passes through North Mississippi. Rain chances won't be too high as the front will not have much moisture to work with as aforementioned. Don't forget to check back here tomorrow evening for my weekly MSU video weathercast!

6/28 - 11:30am - Tropical Storm Alex Could Hit TX as a Hurricane

Overnight model runs and analysis have taken the track of Tropical Storm Alex further north than before, meaning areas near Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas are in the cone of potential for the storm to make landfall as a hurricane early Thursday. The spaghetti chart, which is a composite of computer forecast tracks, has made a very noticeable northward shift since 24 hours ago and the National Hurricane Center's track has shifted with it. Water temperatures in the area near landfall are in the mid to upper 80's, meaning Alex can sustain its strength as it nears shore. Right now the storm appears fairly disorganized due to its travels over the Yucatan Peninsula yesterday, but the storm is definitely rotating and strengthening. This storm could become a category 2 hurricane before it hits land, which is not considered a major hurricane but can still inflict quite a bit of damage. A Hurricane Watch has already been issued for the Texas coastline:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

It's not too often that you see the first Atlantic storm of the year become a US-landfalling hurricane, so it will be interesting to see how this develops.

Around here in Louisville, we're experiencing cooler temperatures this morning after a line of storms came through the area last night. There's a chance for some scattered storms this afternoon, but high pressure should set in for the rest of the week and provide sunny skies with temperatures in the 80's. Sounds better than mid 90's with heat index values in the 100's, doesn't it?

6/26 - 12am - Tropical Depression ONE

The first tropical depression of the season has formed in the Atlantic, meaning we could very soon have our first named storm of the year, Alex. Tropical Depression ONE is slated to hit the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow night before tracking northward. There's some debate over whether the storm will take a westward or eastward turn after getting north of the Yucatan, but current models are favoring the westward solution that takes it into Mexico instead of the Gulf Coast. We'll see how this track develops over the next 48 hours, but right now it looks like the United States will miss the brunt of the storm. Let's hope it stays that way! To the left is the current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center and to the right is a compilation of computer model forecast tracks called a "spaghetti" chart.

It's been a hot start to the summer across Kentuckiana, but it appears there will be a break from the heat as a cold front passes through the region on Monday. Not only will we see rain chances around Louisville on Sunday and Monday, but we'll also see temperatures drop into the 80's for the rest of the week. Until then, temperatures in the mid 90's and heat index values above 100 will persist.

Don't forget to watch my 2010 storm chasing documentary in the blog post below. You can also watch a shorter version of it on YouTube.

2/27 - 4pm - On the Edge for Snow

What a storm last night! Winds gusted to 44mph at 3:54am this morning at my house with winds around 60 in other parts of the Metro. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued and bleachers were overturned at Ballard High School according to a storm report filed with the Storm Prediction Center.

The latest runs of both the GFS and NAM have snow just to our south for tomorrow and late tomorrow night. The heaviest moisture is so very close, but a tight gradient exists as you go north:


(click image to see larger view)

This morning, the HPC had a SLIGHT risk of 4+ inches of snow in Central Kentucky and points east, but the newest outlook pulls the risk area further south into Tennessee and far South Kentucky. At this point I don't think anything is written in stone because of the amount of irregularity in the models. Even though the general track of the storm has been pretty consistent, a 25-50 mile shift north in the storm track will bring us more than just the snow showers the models are forecasting at the moment. This kind of shift is not rare 24-36 hours out, so I would not discount the fact that we could have an accumulating snow late Saturday.

We should top out at around 32 tomorrow for a high, with upper 30's for Sunday and Monday. 40's are back for Tuesday, with 50's for the remainder of the week.

5/18 - 5:30pm - It's a Bit Hot... Could We Really Have a New England Hurricane?

I noticed today as I was sitting outside eating lunch that it's a bit hot for September. Quantitatively, we're around 10 degrees above average for this time of year. We hit 90 degrees, which really hits this point home since our average high is 76 for today. Even though it's dry, it still got a bit uncomfortable in the sun this afternoon.

The GFS is now showing an area low pressure (possibly a tropical storm) coming ashore in North Carolina on Friday, giving us a small chance of rain on the same day. I'm not real optimistic with that right now, so don't get your hopes up for rain anytime soon. Still looks like next Tuesday has a better chance for rain, but that's subject to change this far out.

A few computer models are starting to unnerve some of the weather community today as they show a hurricane hitting New England this weekend:


(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

As the spaghetti chart says, this isn't even a tropical depression yet. Once it's a tropical storm, it's name will be Kyle (unless the low off of North Carolina beats it). The models are confused as all get out at this point, so none of these forecast tracks should be given more than a glance. As far as strength goes, most are shooting for a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. The outlier was the GFDL model which suggested a nasty Category 2 storm near Long Island, but I wouldn't give that prediction the time of day under the circumstances. We just need to sit back and watch this thing during the week.

9/8 - 4:30pm - Ike Could be a Texan

It looks like we've got a better idea for a landfall location than yesterday. The current NHC guidance and spaghetti chart all take it to the Texas Gulf Coast as a Category 3 before landfall:




(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

This is not a final forecast for landfall by any means. This storm still has to navigate through the terrain of Cuba once more before it pops out into the Gulf. Models are sometimes thrown off by how terrain affects a storm, so we'll watch for that. After it exits Cuba we should have a fairly firm idea of where this storm will go.

We've got a pretty good chance for rain tonight, although it won't be a great amount. The rain should be out of here by tomorrow afternoon, which sets us up for a clear Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances return by Thursday, with temperatures ranging from the upper 70's to mid 80's for the week.

9/7 - 2pm - Ike's in Cuba, 500th Post!

Hurricane Ike is still very strong as a Category 4 storm, getting ready to hit Cuba lengthwise. After the damage it caused in Haiti and the Turks and Caicos, Cuba won't be an exception. It should make landfall tonight and weaken to a Category 1 by the time it exits Cuba on Tuesday. Still no details on landfall other than it will be on the Gulf Coast in Texas or Louisiana:




(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the spaghetti chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

So, we'll have to really watch what Ike does in terms of direction and strength this week.

We're still on track here for a chance of rain here on Tuesday. Temperatures should be in the low 80's all week, with tomorrow and Thursday being the exception in the upper 80's.

By the way, this is my 500th post for those keeping track. That's pretty good for just under 2 years of blogging I'd say. On that note... the Ryan Weather website is receiving a major overhaul. It's being rebuilt from scratch and I'm dropping Google Pages as my host, so you won't see anymore outages due to bandwidth issues. Expect to see the new site in the next couple of weeks if not earlier.

9/5 - 6pm - I (Don't) Like Ike

First off, the drizzle, mist, or whatever you want to call it will end later tonight and a dry weekend will be in the cards. Expect temperatures to be in the mid 80's for this weekend and through Tuesday, when we should see a nice drop in temperature for the week ahead.

The tropics are again stealing the weather show as Hanna gets ready to come ashore as a strong tropical storm and Ike takes an unexpected turn in the models.

Here's Hanna's track:



With winds at 70mph right now, Hanna is a strong tropical storm just under Category 1 hurricane status. It should weaken just before it hits land, so I really think this will be a rain maker and flooding issue more than a wind maker.

Hurricane Ike is a different story. Yesterday I reported on the blog that it was still in limbo as to whether the storm would even hit land. Here's what happened today in its track:



Yep, that's a Category 3 Ike trying to wedge itself between Florida and Cuba. The NHC's outlook has it weakening a bit this weekend before strengthening to a Category 4 by next week, so we'll really have to look at this storm seriously. This shift was caused by a forecast weakening of high pressure near the Gulf of Mexico coupled with some weakening of high pressure over Florida causing a northward turn near Tuesday. Obviously it's too far out to tell if this series of weakening will actually occur and to what effect Cuba and Florida will have on the storm's strength. Here's the latest spaghetti chart:


(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

What a crazy couple of weeks it's been in the tropics!

9/3 - 9pm - Rain! It's About Time!

You can thank what's left of Mr. Gustav and an approaching cold front for our isolated downpours today. The downtown area received a good soaking at around 10am this morning and we got hit at home around 4:30pm this afternoon. I really didn't think any rain would happen this early in the week, but Gustav trended north quicker than expected and an interacting cold front only added more of a kick to those spotty downpours. These two features will continue to push through tomorrow, so expect more widespread rains as they get closer. The rain should be out of here by late Friday, so we'll have a dry weekend to look forward to. I think we'll also kick out the 90's after tomorrow as well, making for a cooler week in the 80's.

Tropical Storm Hanna will become a hurricane soon, with a projected landfall near North Carolina's Outer Banks:



This storm is expected to reach a Category 2 with Category 3 status not out of the question. If indeed this storm does get to a 2 or 3, then it would have a pretty major effect on the North Carolina coastline. Hurricane Ike (yeah, that was a quick upgrade) is now a Category 3 already with 115mph winds. We're going to have to really watch this one because it's on a path that could take it between Florida and Cuba and right into the Gulf of Mexico, which is never a good scenario:



I'll post spaghetti charts tomorrow for these storms. Tropical Storm Josephine is still churning in the Atlantic, but it's expected to weaken into a depression and I don't think this will be a threat to land at this point.

8/31 - 3pm - Get Out of New Orleans. Now.

If you're reading this from the city of New Orleans, you'd better be there with a media outlet or emergency management. Nobody except these people need to be in the city right now. Hurricane Gustav has not changed its path since last night, and there's still room for the trend to go dangerously east. There is also the possibility that it could go west as well, but that is looking less and less likely as the storm reaches the coast. This will hit land as at least a Category 3, even though it has calmed a bit today. Things should pick up as we head into the evening hours in terms of winds.

Here's the latest from the NHC and the Colorado State spaghetti chart:





(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

Notice that the eastward shift is still on there, but the couple models from last night putting it over the city of New Orleans have gotten back to their senses. Still the same situation as last night in terms of landfall and projected intensity. This storm is bad news for New Orleans, especially since they could get the northeast corner of the storm that is strongest.

8/30 - 11:20pm - The Dreaded Eastward Shift... Look Out New Orleans

I shuddered when I saw the 11pm update from the National Hurricane Center for Hurricane Gustav:



The track has moved eastward toward New Orleans and away from Central Louisiana like the outlook this afternoon. The spaghetti chart confirms the shift pretty well:


(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

This is bad, bad news folks. Now that the storm has cleared Cuba for the most part, it has an open road straight to the Gulf Coast. Winds calmed to 140mph while crossing Cuba, but they're expected to pick up again as the storm goes into some wickedly warm water. The eye has lost its definition as well, but it is already showing signs of coming back on the satellite loops.

New Orleans is in great danger from this Categroy 4 storm as of this moment. This eastward shift in the models has made it pretty clear that Gustav has the potential to wreak havoc on the Louisiana Gulf Coast, with New Orleans potentially in that dreadful right sector of the storm where the winds are highest. It's good that evacuations are well underway right now, but they need to move as fast as possible. If the track even shifts the tiniest bit east again, then New Orleans gets the full force of the storm. As of now, they are just slightly out of the full potential, but still within great danger. All it will take is a powerful storm surge that penetrates the levees to repeat 2005 all over again. I really do hope that this track shifts west and that the levees hold.

I'll talk about Tropical Storm Hanna more in depth after Gustav's landfall on Monday. As of now, Hanna looks like it will head up near the Carolinas or over the Florida Peninsula, but the models are all over the place with it. This week could be one of the most disastrous weather weeks in US history with the combination of these two storms.

8/28 - 5pm - A Concerning Consensus, Now with TS Hanna

I bet the guys and gals at the National Hurricane Center are in a frenzy right now. Not only do we have the daunting Tropical Storm Gustav, but now Tropical Storm Hanna has just been upgraded to a named storm as well.

First off, the track on Gustav has not really changed much since yesterday:



What gets me is the newest spaghetti chart, comparable with one I peeked at early this morning:


(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

That's a pretty specific landfall area for this far out, but of course this is not by any means set in stone. The consensus is somewhere west of New Orleans as a Category 3, which is bad news. The most powerful part of a hurricane resides in the northeast section, which would smack the Crescent City head-on if this scenario were to happen. Katrina hit just east of New Orleans, which gave Biloxi, MS and other cities around that area the worst of the storm. New Orleans got the surge from the storm, not so much the wind.

I'd say this is probably the worst track for New Orleans I've seen come off the models yet. The good part is that there is still a great deal of room for change in this track. This is no time to sit and wait for more models before taking action. If you have friends or relatives who reside in or near New Orleans or the western Gulf Coast, make sure you tell them it's time to get some serious plans together for evacuation. Barring any significant changes to the forecast track, official evacuations should start within the next couple days.

Here's Tropical Storm Hanna's track:



This should be a hurricane by Saturday, with no real good estimate on a location for landfall at the moment.

Compared to the tropics, our weather around here has been nice and calm for the past couple weeks. The bad part is that we need rain badly. A cold front coming through tomorrow should give us a chance for some rain, but it's not real high. We'll be seeing more brown grass for a little while if this doesn't produce any appreciable rain. Highs should stay around 90 for the weekend and into next week.

8/26 - 5:30pm - We Missed Out on Rain, Hurricane Gustav

The GFS was right, all the rain from what was Tropical Storm Fay slid eastward overnight and left us dry as a bone. Our next chance of rain will be a small one, occurring on Friday and Saturday as a cold front quietly passes through. Temperatures will stay in the mid 80's for the remainder of the week and this weekend.

Here's the big story of the day: Hurricane Gustav. This could be a news maker in a matter of a couple days if it continues on it's current forecast path:



The spaghetti chart for this storm is equally attention-getting:



Notice how most models have a general consensus right now of taking the storm between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. This is certainly a better consensus among the models than what we saw with Fay, which had a bizarre and unusual track to begin with. Gustav's winds are already at 75mph as of 5pm, and it's not even in the Gulf yet. If you have any interests on the Gulf Coast, you definitely need to monitor this. We should have a pretty decent landfall estimate by this weekend. This track will change many times over the next few days. Lots of oil platforms are in the Gulf, so don't be surprised if oil and gas prices skyrocket in the next couple days.

8/20 - 5pm - Fay Won't Go Away!

(I apologize for the corny title... couldn't resist)

The track of Tropical Storm Fay has changed around a little bit today, but we're back to about where we were yesterday in terms of forecast track:



As usual, this is just a line of best fit for the spaghetti chart with all the forecast models chiming in:



The GFS nearly puts this storm back in the Gulf again, but that's still up to debate. Most models, as you can see above, like a more northwesterly track better. I'll stick with that too for the moment, but I'm reiterating that it could still re-enter the Gulf under the right circumstances. It just takes one model run to change up this whole situation. One thing I did get correct was the fact that Fay didn't become a hurricane as it re-entered the Atlantic. Simply too close to land with not enough time.

A number of homes have been flooded from Fay's rain. To read more, click here.

Today was the first day in a while that I actually called hot. Same story for the rest of the week, with a possible rain system and/or the remnants of Fay coming in for the weekend and into next week.

Since Tropical Storm Fay has been so widely publicized, my blog has seen a great deal of hits from Florida coming from web searches. Welcome to all you Floridians and stay safe down there!