Speaking of precipitation, here's the current radar view:
That rain near Evansville should be here tonight and continue through the day tomorrow. We may see a short break in the rain during the late morning before potentially severe storms come through tomorrow afternoon and evening. Here's the latest severe weather outlook from the SPC:
Notice how the 30% risk is in Southern Kentucky. This is where the SPC thinks the biggest tornado risk exists. I think this area could be extended further north into the Louisville area if the higher CAPE (instability) values for Friday on today's SREF model are indeed correct and if cloudcover doesn't become an issue. The dampener though is weaker shear in our area compared to Tennessee, so that may keep the tornadoes suppressed to the south. In any case, wind and hail will be the main issues. Things should get hammered out by tomorrow morning, so stay tuned!
The total rain forecast for tonight and tomorrow from the HPC is pretty impressive:
Areas in Southwestern Indiana could see more than two inches of rain, but it looks like the immediate Louisville will get somewhere around an inch and a half.
This system will give way to a nice Easter weekened with highs near 60 and sunny skies. Next storm chance occurs on Monday.
2 comments:
Ryan,
Before you get your hopes up on severe weather tomorrow, you'd better check out the moisture values. The dewpoints aren't going to get much above 50 tomorrow, which WILL limit the severe threat. With some instability, however, we could see a few severe storms in my opinion.
True, but if there's one thing I've learned, it's that you should always wait until the day of the event before you jump to conclusions about severe weather. I honestly think there won't be too much action around here tomorrow due to the lack of good shear and dewpoints as you said, but it's too early to tell exactly.
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