4/22 - 6:30pm - Great Start to the Week, Rain Ahead in Starkville

Today's weather has been just perfect for our Earth Day here in Mississippi but tomorrow is going to be even better! Temperatures will top out in the middle 70's with a few clouds around so be sure to make time for outdoor activities tomorrow. Rain and storms will move through as a cold front does during the morning hours of Wednesday, but luckily no severe weather is anticipated with this. We'll clear out the storms for the end of the workweek. Check out my LAST-EVER Mississippi State University CampusConnect forecast below. It's been a great four years here in Starkville and I'm going to miss all of the great folks down here. I'm looking forward to my new beginnings at WAVE 3 in Louisville!

2/14 - 11:55pm - A Curveball Forecast for MSU Baseball

Ready for some baseball? Tomorrow marks the start of the collegiate baseball season here at Mississippi State and the weather will cooperate... for some of the games this weekend. Friday looks good with temperatures in the mid 50's and partly cloudy skies but unfortunately a cold snap on Saturday will bring the chill for the game on Saturday as temperatures only reach into the mid 40's. Look for a bit of recovery for Sunday's double-header games. Next week brings us more rain as we're just drying out from all the rain we had earlier this week. Yuck. The only redeeming value to this will be the warmer temperatures that will accompany the system generating the rain. Get your full Mississippi State forecast in the video below!

4/12 - 5pm - Louisville Heat Island Research

It's finished. Since January I've been working on a bit of research that seeks to explain roughly how much the urban heat island effect is skewing the temperatures at Louisville International Airport (KSDF) compared to the rest of the city. Even though I completed this paper for honors credit in my applied climatology class at Mississippi State, this is a project I've been wanting to undertake since my high school years. (See update at bottom of post)

Click here to read the report  [PDF format | 1.73 MB]

Louisville International Airport

As a kid growing up in Louisville, KY I realized through watching countless TV weathercasts and reading many weather discussions that the high and low temperatures at the airport were considerably warmer than the rest of the city. Louisville has a well-documented heat island region in the center and northern portions of town where the highest concentration of development is, and consequently the increased heat from this area greatly influences the official temperatures at Louisville International Airport. This wasn't always the case. For many years the official measurements were taken at the suburban National Weather Service office off of Smyrna Road in Louisville. These measurements were not as skewed by this effect because it is in an area of trees, vegetation, and suburban housing instead of airport apron, large swaths of roadway, and urban development. This research puts a degree number on how much these measurements at the airport are affected by the heat island.

The time was right back in January to start on this research because climate records from internet-connected personal weather stations around the city have now been available for quite a few years for a good comparison. Not only that, but I feel that I've come far enough in my weather education to do something like this without having holes in understanding block my path. This is research that deals with simple averages and simple data, but I feel that the simplicity makes it powerful. Limited data and manpower put some constraints on this research, but the end result is what I believe to be a good rough estimate. I do offer suggestions for future research, which could maybe lead to some changes in how records are being kept within the city. This is a matter I feel strongly about because these airport temperature measurements in my opinion are not representing the city well, and there's quite a bit of explanation about that inside the paper. Give it a read and tell me what you think in the comments section below!

UPDATE: Mark Jarvis, senior forecaster at NWS Louisville, emailed with information saying that the temperature sensor at KSDF was changed in June 2011 and apparently the anomaly between KSDF temperatures and those in surrounding areas is not as great as it once was due to this. A study will be conducted by the NWS this summer to see how the sensor is performing. This does not change the 2009-2010 data and results I obtained in my paper above.

8/15 - 6pm - Severe Weather Craziness Back Home

Radar image from NWS Louisville

Saturday's severe weather in Louisville put many LG&E customers without power as winds exceeding 60 mph hit the city. At its peak the storm caused over 128,000 customers to lose power in Louisville, but that number has now dwindled down to 23,000. On radar it appears the storm may have bowed outward a bit due to the strong winds pushing ahead of it, and downbursts were likely the cause of much of the heavy damage in central parts of the city. Folks in Southeastern Jefferson County near the Jeffersontown, Middletown, Fisherville, and even down to Bullitt County saw a bit of a scary sight as the leading edge of the storm produced an arcus or shelf cloud. While not dangerous on its own this cloud often marks the leading edge of the gust front in a thunderstorm, which can carry damaging winds. Check out my photo from my back yard below:

With some schools still lacking power, Jefferson County Public Schools has cancelled classes tomorrow after already cancelling the first day of school for the academic year today. I'm not sure if JCPS has ever canceled the first day of school before, but this is certainly not the first time they've had to cancel due to power outages (wind storm of September '08 and major ice storm of January '09 are prime examples). A couple more nice weather days in Louisville will help with power restoration and tree clearing efforts.

Mississippi State Weather

I'm back at Mississippi State University for the semester and classes begin on Wednesday. The humidity been much lower in Starkville today since the passage of a cold front yesterday. Unfortunately reality will gradually return this week as temperatures surge back into the 90's and humidity increases as return flow transports Gulf moisture northward again. Daily small afternoon storm chances will return on Thursday or so.

Return to TV in Jackson, TN

If you're in Jackson, TN or the surrounding West Tennessee region, you'll want to tune into WBBJ ABC 7 this Saturday morning at 6am as I make my return to the Good Morning West Tennessee Saturday newscast. It's been about four months since my last show there due to my month-long storm chasing trip and time back home in Louisville, so I'm itching to get back to what I love doing most. We'll be bringing you weather updates every 10 minutes along with the morning's top news stories and events that you need to know about to get your weekend started!

8/24 - 5:15pm - The Return of MSU Forecast Videos!

It's a new school year and that can only mean one thing, the return of my Mississippi State University video weather forecasts! We have new graphics this year (the banner, 5-day forecast bars), and heck, I even got a new suit for the occasion! The weather won't be terribly active here in Mississippi over the next week or so, but the drop in dewpoint is certainly a welcome change! Check out the video below:



Check back next Tuesday for another video forecast!

8/16 - 1:30pm - Hello From Mississippi State!

I'm all moved in and ready for another semester at Mississippi State University! While temperatures here this week are comparable to Louisville, the humidity is considerably higher and makes it challenging to do anything outside. For a comparison, the dew point in Louisville right now is 61 degrees while at MSU it's 72 degrees. The proximity of Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico causes the higher humidity and those scattered afternoon tropical air-fueled thunderstorms that can put a lid on the heat for some areas.

Speaking of things tropical, the remnants of Tropical Depression Five off the coast of Louisiana may strengthen again (60% chance according to the National Hurricane Center) as it nears land and become a tropical depression once again. Regardless of whether this low strengthens again or not, it will bring quite a bit of rain into Mississippi by Wednesday and Thursday as it moves inland and curves eastward. This may put a slight damper on the heat around East Central Mississippi (lower 90's instead of upper), but temperatures will rise back into the upper 90's by the weekend with that daily chance of afternoon storms.

8/14 - 6:30pm - Leaving for Mississippi State Tomorrow!

I'm off to Mississippi State University tomorrow to begin a new semester. This will be a particularly exciting semester because I'm enrolled in my first-ever meteorology class, and it's sure to be a fun one! As I said before, I'll be posting updates on MSU weather while I'm down there and throw in some Louisville reports if anything extreme happens. It's a challenging 8-hour drive to get to Mississippi State from Louisville, but it's well worth it when you consider how top-notch their meteorology and broadcasting programs are.

A broken line of severe storms again affected Kentuckiana, causing some power outages and torrential rain. Reports of a possible tornado touchdown are coming in from Jefferson County, Indiana, but overall most places saw very heavy rain and straight-line winds.

Here's a video I shot on Thursday of a very severe storm that passed through Louisville. The 60mph+ winds (which made it look like a tropical storm or hurricane was occurring) took off some siding on my house and reorganized our patio furniture into quite a mess. You can view the HD video below:

8/11 - 11:45pm - One Hot Summer...

We have had 57 days in the 90's or higher so far this summer in Louisville and there could be many more ahead as this brutally hot weather continues. It's going to get even hotter this week as the current ridging pattern stays in place, with temperatures expected to creep closer to 100 through Saturday. A Heat Advisory is in place through Friday, but I think a couple more Excessive Heat Warnings could be issued for us over the next few days. Like today, showers and thunderstorms could develop in the intense heat and spare some communities from the excessive temperatures over the next few days. As a cold front approaches the area by the end of the weekend, we'll see a better chance for rain and temperatures dipping (relatively speaking) into the lower 90's.

It's that time of year again. Like many college students, I'm heading off to school for the semester and that means not only a change of scenery for me, but a change of content on this blog for you readers out there. I'll be leaving Louisville for Mississippi State University on Sunday and I'm very excited to be getting back into the swing of things. This summer has felt extremely long for me and there's a good reason for that... Mississippi State has a three and a half month summer break, which is over a month more than the summer breaks I've had back home in Louisville. That extra month allowed me to witness eight tornadoes in the Plains this year while storm chasing. Needless to say, Mississippi State is a storm chaser-friendly university with that kind of semester schedule. As far as the content change on the blog goes, you'll be seeing Mississippi State-centric weather updates with a wealth of other weather news from around the nation. Hurricane season is still in full swing and I'll be covering that as well. As the semester gets underway I may throw a few surprises in the mix as well, so be sure to check back for new blog posts!

4/29 - 12am CDT - Final Exams/Derby/Storm Chasing

It's been a long week of packing and final exams at Mississippi State University. I finished my chemistry, world geography, and calculus II final exams this week and I'll be taking my English composition II exam just before I leave for Louisville this evening. My car is just about packed (yes, all of my stuff really does "fit" in my Honda Fit) and I have just a few more hours here on campus before I depart this evening.

I'll be returning home just before the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Right now I think we may have some weather trouble on Saturday as a pair of low pressure systems to the west try to turn north as they near the Mississippi River. Heavy rain will be a major issue for Derby according to the latest computer models. There's even a risk for some severe weather around the region at that time, but I think heavy rain will be the bigger story around the Ohio Valley. If you think the infield at Churchill Downs is crazy during good weather, get ready for a muddy mess in the heavy rain. I'm a bit concerned that there may be ongoing thunderstorms near the 6 o'clock hour, which might mean a postponement of the Derby. We'll see how the weather situation develops!

You've probably noticed that I switched out the banner of the blog to prepare for my upcoming storm chasing trip. I just can't believe that I'm only 9 days away from a month's worth of storm chasing in the Plains with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. I'll be bringing you 1080p HD video, pictures, chase reports and more on this blog and through my Twitter and Facebook accounts daily during the chase. I'm looking forward to meeting all our new and returning guests this year on our tours. Meteorologist Kevin Harned of WAVE 3 TV in Louisville, who has been a tour guide and severe weather expert with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours for years, will be joining us during my last week of chasing starting May 29th. It'll be great to have another Louisvillian out there with us, and I'm sure Kevin will be broadcasting his own storm chasing updates on WAVE 3 throughout the week.

All the storm chasing action on my blog starts May 8th!

12/9 - 12:30pm - Back to Louisville!

It's been a great Fall semester here at Mississippi State University, but final exams are over and it's time to head back to Louisville for the long winter break. I was pretty stoked about going back up north until I saw the forecast for Louisville tomorrow: Sunny with a high of 26, windchill values as low as 7. That's cold! Nevertheless, it'll be a nice drive home today and I can't wait to be back in the Derby City.

Over the next few weeks I'll be writing about Louisville weather, weather news, and weather-related stuff on the blog when I have time. If a snowstorm decides to visit Louisville while I'm up there, you can expect full coverage on this blog as well.

10/25 - 3:15pm - MSU Forecast

Here's your latest Mississippi State University forecast:


Sunny skies should stick around until Tuesday, when severe weather might be an issue. A squall line of thunderstorms will most likely come through the area on Tuesday afternoon or evening, packing with it some strong wind and heavy rain. I don't think this will be a tornado-type of event, but more of a fast-moving windy thunderstorm type of event. A sunny day will follow on Wednesday with more storms on Thursday and Friday. Things should clear out on Saturday after a small chance of morning storms.

The MSU vs. Florida game last night was a blast, but unfortunately MSU just couldn't outpace No. 1 Florida. Great effort though!

9/21 - 7:45pm - Rain, Rain, Rain!

Everyone in the Southeast is sick of rain after the last few days. From Louisville to Starkville, MS to Atlanta, flooding problems, heavy rain, and headaches have been all too common! Here's a video I shot this afternoon of some students here at MSU using skimboards in some of the minor flooding that occurred outside my residence hall:



We've had quite a bit of rain here at MSU, but flooding has really not been an issue. The rain in Atlanta over the past few days became deadly today as flooding caused deaths. Up to 20 inches of rain has fallen in some parts of Georgia. More rain is possible tomorrow around the Southeast, so there could be more flooding to come.
[11alive.com - Atlanta]

8/9 - 10am CDT - Moved In at Mississippi State

After a day full of moving boxes and organizing, I'm finally moved in at Mississippi State University! One remarkable difference between Louisville, KY and Starkville, MS is the temperature. Take a look at the NWS forecast for today in Starkville:

Today: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 99. South southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

The notion of a thunderstorm seems very nice after realizing how hot it is down here. Temperatures should settle into the upper 80's this week, although this upper-level ridge should stick around for at least a week.

There's a MODERATE Risk for severe weather in the upper Midwest today, including parts of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa:


Looks like the main risks will be for hail and high winds, with Chicago right in the center of all this. We'll have to see what kind of storm remports come in this afternoon.

7/10 - 3pm - New Website, Traveling

I just launched my new website at http://ryanhoke.com and http://ryanweather.org. This new site will not feature weather forecasts for Louisville like Ryan Weather did, but you can still find all the archived forecast videos on there. My blog has also switched over from Ryan Weather as well, so I'll be blogging about weather news, college, and meteorology.

I'm going on vacation starting tomorrow and I won't be back for two weeks. I'll be sure to post when I come back, which will be only a couple weeks before I go down to Mississippi State. Busy month coming up!

9/22 - 7:30pm - Welcome to Fall

Ah yes, 'tis the season of changing leaves, sweaters, football, and the occasional early snowstorm. Today was the first day of Fall 2008 and nobody could really tell. A continuation of our dry, nearly drought weather has made that Summer feeling in the air stick around a while longer. We're slated to be dry until possibly the first week of October according to the GFS. Even then it looks doubtful that we'll see much if any rain at all! At least our mornings and evenings in the lower 60's have made things feel a little more fall-ish.

An area of low pressure near Puerto Rico is making weather-watchers like myself cast a weary eye to the Caribbean. It is not yet a tropical depression, but it's getting fairly close according to the NHC. Some models were and still are taking this storm near the NYC area, prompting concern that this could be like a storm that hit New York on this day in 1938. Since it's late in the season and the water is not as warm in that vicinity comparted to the Gulf, I really wouldn't worry about this storm being a big mess like the one in '38. It is important that we keep an eye on it though in case it throws in some late season surprises.

Still 11,000 without power in Louisville as of 4:30pm today. It boggles my mind that we still have people without power from last Sunday's wind storm. That right there should tell you that this was a phenomenon that many of us will only see once in a lifetime. After returning to school today, an outpouring of many stories and experiences reverberated throughout the halls. I heard some say they didn't even lose power or see all that much wind. Those experiences were in the minority as most of the people I talked to said they were without power until this past weekend, with a few still without power. Many also had to clear out tree limbs and repair damage caused to their homes. We only lost a half dozen shingles and a couple limbs fell in our woods, so I consider myself lucky after hearing what others had to go through.

Thanks again for all the comments concerning my acceptance into MSU yesterday.

9/21 - 2:30pm - Boring Weather, Big Announcement

I'll start with the big announcement: I have been accepted into Mississippi State University for the fall of 2009. This means I'm off to Starkville, MS to complete my professional meteorology degree with an emphasis in broadcasting next August. For those who don't know, Mississippi State has one of the best, if not the best, meteorology programs in the South. I visited their facilities in July of this year and was thoroughly impressed with what they had to offer, especially in the meteorology department. The professors and students there are just as nuts about the weather as I am!

Moving on to our boring weather... We might get a spotty shower around here this afternoon since a few of them have formed to our south. The rest of the week looks dry and sunny, with highs reaching into the mid 80's.

8/11 - 5pm - More Dry, Comfortable Weather Ahead

It really can't get any better than this in August! It's 77 degrees in the suburbs with a dew point at 56. Not much will change this week as this dry and cool pattern continues. Rain chances will be on the increase for the weekend, but I think we'll need some rain by then.

Tomorrow is the start of my last year of high school, and with that comes more responsibility and less sleeping in. Blog posts will be more sparse than in the summer, but hopefully they don't fall below one every two days. I will tell you that I've applied to two colleges and I should know which one I'll be going to by October, so I'll announce that when the time comes. I will be majoring in meteorology, of course, at whichever of these two schools I go to. Hopefully this last year in Louisville is a good one!