5/1 - 11am - Kentucky Derby & Severe Weather?

It's the first Saturday in May and we all know what that means in Louisville: The Kentucky Derby! The rain is still falling here, but I think we may catch a break around lunchtime and the sun may even come out. We'll see more rain after that brief clearing, but the latest RUC computer model runs are indicating another break in the rain around 6pm, when the Derby will run.

Severe weather has been a big issue to our southwest over the past 24 hours, but the Louisville area may see a few severe storms this afternoon and evening, especially if the sun comes out after the rain breaks this afternoon. Heavy rain will be making its way back into the region tonight, when we could have some flooding problems in the Ohio Valley. To the right is the expected rainfall estimate for today and tomorrow from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, which shows Louisville getting over 6" of rain.

A rare High Risk of severe weather has been issued for parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee today due to the threat of strong, long-tracked tornadoes. This is the third time in a week that a High Risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Tornado watches have been issued for these areas, including the region around Mississippi State University. This comes after last night's severe weather troubles in Arkansas, where tornadoes damaged homes and caused at least one fatality. Big time flooding is occurring in Memphis right now, with more rain on the way this afternoon and evening.

With all of this severe weather going on I nearly forgot that we are exactly one week away from the start of my month-long storm chasing trip! I'll be leaving Louisville on May 8th to go storm chasing with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. Don't miss my blog posts and updates from May 8th to June 5th!

4/29 - 12am CDT - Final Exams/Derby/Storm Chasing

It's been a long week of packing and final exams at Mississippi State University. I finished my chemistry, world geography, and calculus II final exams this week and I'll be taking my English composition II exam just before I leave for Louisville this evening. My car is just about packed (yes, all of my stuff really does "fit" in my Honda Fit) and I have just a few more hours here on campus before I depart this evening.

I'll be returning home just before the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Right now I think we may have some weather trouble on Saturday as a pair of low pressure systems to the west try to turn north as they near the Mississippi River. Heavy rain will be a major issue for Derby according to the latest computer models. There's even a risk for some severe weather around the region at that time, but I think heavy rain will be the bigger story around the Ohio Valley. If you think the infield at Churchill Downs is crazy during good weather, get ready for a muddy mess in the heavy rain. I'm a bit concerned that there may be ongoing thunderstorms near the 6 o'clock hour, which might mean a postponement of the Derby. We'll see how the weather situation develops!

You've probably noticed that I switched out the banner of the blog to prepare for my upcoming storm chasing trip. I just can't believe that I'm only 9 days away from a month's worth of storm chasing in the Plains with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. I'll be bringing you 1080p HD video, pictures, chase reports and more on this blog and through my Twitter and Facebook accounts daily during the chase. I'm looking forward to meeting all our new and returning guests this year on our tours. Meteorologist Kevin Harned of WAVE 3 TV in Louisville, who has been a tour guide and severe weather expert with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours for years, will be joining us during my last week of chasing starting May 29th. It'll be great to have another Louisvillian out there with us, and I'm sure Kevin will be broadcasting his own storm chasing updates on WAVE 3 throughout the week.

All the storm chasing action on my blog starts May 8th!

5/2 - 2:15pm - 100th Video Forecast!

Today I'm celebrating my 100th video forecast. With over four hours of video forecasts in my possession, you can bet my hard drive is getting pretty full!

Kentucky Derby weather looks pretty good, but it won't get above 61 today. Sunshine may actually become plentiful this afternoon and evening if this eastward clearing trend continues. Rain will be back for tomorrow and Monday, but I think a reprieve is on the way for Tuesday with warmer temperatures!

5/1 - 5:30pm - Showers and Storms On the Way

A few showers are coming across the river to Louisville right now. This batch of rain won't last too long, but there's a little more behind the initial line. That rain should be here later tonight if it doesn't dissipate.

It still looks like there will be some rain for the Kentucky Derby tomorrow, but it won't be heavy at race time. Heavy rain will be around the area in the early morning, but this should taper off to just some showers by the afternoon. It may even clear out if we get lucky. I think we may have a hard time getting much above 60 degrees with all this rain around.

Sunday and Monday look pretty wet as well, so don't put away those umbrellas yet. I'll have more tomorrow afternoon in the video forecast.

4/30 - 4:30pm - More Rain to Come

The sun came out a couple hours ago and warmed us up quite a bit today, but thunderstorms are on the way from the southeast. The SPC has put us under a 5% risk for tornadoes this afternoon and evening, but so far we've only seen scattered non-severe storms in areas to our west. With the amount of sunshine we saw today, we may see a few of these storms reach severe limits. The Pegasus Parade starts in half an hour and I think the storms are far enough away to not pose any problems until after the parade ends.

Storms will continue tonight and then more thunderstorms will roll through tomorrow afternoon. At this time the SPC doesn't have us in a severe weather threat area and I think instability won't be as strong as previously thought. In any case, Oaks could get wet.

The forecast for the Kentucky Derby is deteriorating at the moment. The GFS and NAM models are giving us showers during the day and evening on Saturday, which means our high may not break 70 degrees. Better get some plastic to cover those Derby hats!

4/29 - 10pm - Severe Chances and Derby

Here's the latest severe outlook from the SPC for tomorrow:


We may see some storms tomorrow morning, but scattered storms around the area tomorrow could be strong to severe. I don't think there will be much in the way of severe weather with the cloudy mess in the morning limiting our instability potential for the afternoon.

Another chance for severe weather happens on Friday (Oaks):


Friday's severe weather chances will probably be more elevated due to better shear and instability (maybe up to 1000 J/KG). Even though this is not the best setup for a widespread severe weather event, these storms will fire in the afternoon as to our west and will be in here for the late afternoon and evening hours on Friday. Temperatures will be near 80, but these thunderstorms could pose problems for the Kentucky Oaks if they pass through before 6pm.

Derby is still up in the air with regards to rain. The models are still in disagreement, but I'm going to go with a few sprinkles, overcast skies, and a high near 70 for Saturday. As I've been saying for the last few days, this still needs time to be hammered out.

4/28 - 5:30pm - More Rain to Come

We got .18" of rain today at my house, but more is on the way. The HPC estimates we'll get in excess of three inches of rain this week:

This certainly seems feasible after seeing tons of rain on GFS model from today all the way to Saturday morning (I'll get to Derby weather in a moment).

Another rainy day is on the way for tomorrow with a high in the lower 70's. The Pegasus Parade on Thursday looks fairly wet right now, but there is the potential for a bit of clearing in the afternoon that could send temperatures into the upper 70's.

Let's talk Oaks weather... which doesn't look too good. The SPC just issued this severe weather outlook pertaining to Friday (Oaks):


Since there is a fairly strong cold front coming through early Saturday, conditions look at least marginally good for a severe weather situation around here. The highest instability will stay to our west it looks like, but moisture flow into the area will be quite ample to support strong to severe storms. I'll have more on this as we get closer, but nobody wants severe weather during Oaks!

Derby is another wild card at this point because it depends on what time this cold front passes in the morning. If the front passes through during the early morning hours as the GFS indicates, we should have clearing skies by the time the horses are ready to go. If this front delays, we could have a rainy mess at Churchill Downs. I'm leaning toward the no-rain solution for Derby right now, but everyone needds to keep in mind that this is a very tricky forecast situation.

4/27 - 10pm - Rain... Coming to an Area Near You!

We've been lucky to be so dry lately, unless you have plants that need the water. The good news or bad is that rain is on the way for tomorrow, starting in the late morning hours. We'll get up to around 75 for a high tomorrow in spite of the rain. The rain should lessen in intensity and may even break for a while on Wednesday, but we're back with more of the wet stuff on Thursday and Friday.

Derby day looks downright iffy right now. The GFS is keeping some lighter showers behind this cold front well into the afternoon, but I think this front will exit in a jiffy. So, the bottom line is that rain will fall on Saturday morning, but it should clear out around lunchtime and temperatures should make it up into the lower 70's. This will need some fine-tuning as the week goes on.

4/24 - 7:30pm - First Day in the 80's!

Today was our first day in the 80's for 2009, with 87 degrees for a high. Talk about shattering a ceiling there! Today's temperature was a couple degrees above what was forecast, and tomorrow could very well do the same. Since there will be little or no cloud cover, we could get up to 90 degrees tomorrow and break our previous record of 88 for April 25th. We'll have to watch the thermometers tomorrow!

80's will stick around until Tuesday, when an approaching cold front will generate showers and thunderstorms around the area. It's too early to tell if these will be severe, but I'll keep an eye on it. We shouldn't drop below 75 for highs next week, so the temperature hit from the cold front won't be bad at all.

Derby still looks wet on the GFS model, but luckily we're keeping 70's in the forecast. Now's the time to start crossing your fingers for no rain, we're only a week away!

7/23 - 5pm - A Few Sprinkles Around

A few rain showers and even a couple thunderstorms are making their way through Kentuckiana ahead of a warm front. These are a bit unexpected since dry air was forecast to be in the area with the passage of the front, but enough moisture worked its way in to generate a spotty radar picture today:



As drier air works its way back into the area tonight, these showers will dissipate and dry conditions will remain until at least Tuesday afternoon, when some afternoon thunderstorms look possible ahead of a cold front. Highs in the low to mid 80's are a good bet starting tomorrow and should last until the cold front comes through early Wednesday. Temperatures after the cold front's passage should hold in the 60's and 70's.

The latest Kentucky Derby forecast looks a bit better temperature-wise, but I'm still seeing rain as a possibility. Hopefully we'll see 70 degrees and dry weather instead of the 70 and wet weather I'm seeing on the GFS model right now.

A wildfire in Myrtle Beach, SC is burning dozens of homes and causing evacuations... click here to read more.

4/22 - 6pm - Time For 80's, Earth Day!

80-degree weather is on the way! Today's 66 seemed a bit chilly to some, but a high in the mid 70's tomorrow should alleviate any notion of cool weather. If you like dry weather, you have a solid seven days of that starting today! The GFS model isn't putting in a lick of precipitation until Wednesday of next week because of a big area of high pressure getting ready to settle off the east coast. That should help temperatures stay in the 80's from Friday through Tuesday, maybe even hitting 85 this weekend!

The super-extended forecast for the Kentucky Derby looks rainy with temperatures in the low 60's at the moment. This forecast is extremely long-range, so expect this to change considerably before the horses start their two-minute journey.

Today is Earth Day, so get out there and support efforts to keep our planet clean and reduce pollution!

4/18 - 12:30pm - New Video Forecast

Today's the day for Thunder Over Louisville! With a high near 76 and sunny skies, turn out will be much higher compared to last year. Rain should come through after midnight, so I expect the fireworks show to be nice and dry. Have a great time if you're going out there today!

4/17 - 8:30pm - Time for Thunder!

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Thunder Over Louisville is less than 24 hours away and the weather looks spectacular. With a high in the mid 70's, sunny skies, and fairly light winds, the air show and fireworks show should go off without a hitch. The chance of rain on the computer models a couple of days ago for the fireworks show has been pushed back far enough in time (well after midnight) for me to call for no rain during Thunder, so that's good news!

Rain will continue through the day on Sunday after starting in the early morning hours and should last until Monday. This rain will send temperatures down to near 60 for highs Monday through Wednesday, but recovery into the 70's looks good for Thursday through next weekend.

See you all at Thunder tomorrow!

4/16 - 7:30pm - How Does 74 Sound For Thunder?

All hope seemed lost for a warm day at around noon today, but the clouds cleared in the afternoon and left us with a high of 64. Not bad for starting out with a dull, cold morning! The sun will stick around for tomorrow and I think we'll actually break 70 degrees for a high.

74 will be the magic number for this weekend, the high for Saturday during Thunder Over Louisville. The rain chance for the fireworks show has been delayed a few hours on the computer models now, so I think the duration of Thunder will be completely dry. Rain should come into the picture on Sunday morning and last through Tuesday, but the rest of the week will be dry. Temperatures will take a hit in response to the incoming rain early next week, with 60's for Sunday, 50's for Monday and Tuesday, and 60's again for Wednesday. 70's are back for Thursday through the weekend!

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4/15 - 7:30pm - Get Those Clouds Outta Here!

The pattern we've been in the last couple of days has been downright dreadful. 49 degrees and overcast skies seems light years away from a warm spring day, and it's hard to put up with when the average high temperature for April 15th is 67 degrees. Well, the buck stops here and temperatures are on the way up.

The sun should begin to peek out tomorrow, bringing temperatures well into the 60's for a high tomorrow. Look for highs to break 70 on Friday with plentiful sunshine. Weather for Thunder Over Louisville still looks great during the daytime airshow with temperatures in the 70's, and the rain chance for Saturday late afternoon/evening has diminished a bit on the computer models, so it should remain mostly dry around the area until well after the fireworks show. I'll keep you posted.

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4/14 - 4pm - Rain During "Thunder?"

I've been asked this quite a few times today about the weather for Thunder Over Louisville this Saturday, and I must say that it doesn't look too bad. We should top out at around 70 during the afternoon, but the fireworks show could be marred by some late evening rain. It looks like the rain will start somewhere between 8 and 11pm, but luckily it doesn't look heavy at this point. I'll keep you up to date as the week goes on to see if this changes.

Not much to say about today's weather, other than the fact that it rained cats and dogs for a short period this morning downtown. We'll see a repeat of today's weather, minus the rain, for tomorrow. Luckily, the clouds will clear and 60's will return for Thursday. Look for highs above 70 degrees for Friday. The rain from Saturday night continues into Sunday and will last until Tuesday with another cool start to the week.

5/3 - 2pm - New Video Forecast

What a nasty day for Oaks! That paled in comparison to the deadly Arkansas tornadoes yesterday, but luckily I think we'll avoid both of those today. Happy Derby!

5/2 - 3pm - Severe Weather on the Way!

A line of heavy thunderstorms is approaching the Louisville area and should be here at around 3pm. These aren't severe, but they'll sure make a lot of noise.

I'm worried about later this afternoon and tonight. Later this afternoon another line of thunderstorms will come through that could really pack a punch. They're in Southern Kentucky right now near Mayfield. There are multiple tornado warnings associated with this line, but I think they will weaken a bit before they reach us later this afternoon.

Later tonight should cap off the rest of the severe weather with the last line of storms coming through. They should start around midnight and the main threat will be straight line winds. I don't expect these to be very bad at all, but we could have some severe thunderstorm warnings in the region.

These storms this afternoon and tonight are going to make a mess for the B-52's concert on the Riverfront at 9pm tonight. If there's lightning, many outdoor Derby Festival events could be canceled.

5/1 - 4pm - Derby Looks Good, More Aftershocks

We're just outside of a SLIGHT risk for severe storms Friday night as they weaken going east. I don't think we'll have much of a problem here, but it looks like there could be issues in Southern Illinois with a moderate risk out there.

Derby looks good with temperatures in the lower 70's and a possible small shower. Winds are gusty right now in Louisville, which could impact the large balloons at the Pegasus Parade.

Also, Illinois has had another resurgence in aftershocks over the last couple of days. Yesterday evening a 2.6 was recorded and today a 3.3 was recorded. It'll be interesting to see what else comes out of the active area in Illinois. I received a link from Brent in Illinois today of some security video with sound of the big 5.2 a couple weeks ago. You can view it here. Just click on the first yellow link on the page.

4/30 - 8pm - Slight Risk for Severe Storms Derby Eve

After many weeks of calm weather, we're starting to encounter signs that it could change significantly. Oaks looks pretty good right now compared to yesterday's forecast, so I think we'll squeeze out a little drizzle or light rain possibly during or after Oaks. That night, Derby Eve, is the problem. The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe weather for Friday night, with up to 1 inch of rain possible as well. While the risk isn't too bad at the moment, the rain factor is huge.

The track at Churchill Downs is going to be a mess Saturday morning and all throughout the afternoon if the sun doesn't come out to dry it. I'm betting (pun intended) that track conditions will be listed as muddy or sloppy before the Derby. As I said yesterday, you might want to factor that in to your wagers on Saturday.

Until Friday, calm and warm weather will prevail. Low temperatures will hold in the 50's and 60's too, which is a massive improvement over this morning's 30's and 40's around the area.