12/14 - 12am - Cold is Here and Another Louisville Storm Looms

My apologies for posting so late today. I didn't expect the recovery time from my wisdom teeth removal procedure this morning to last so long, but I think I'm about 95% back to normal now. Cold temperatures are the big story tonight as clouds continue to clear out of the area and cooler air filters in from the northwest. Low temperatures will hover around 8 degrees early tomorrow morning and we're already well into the teens at the eleven o'clock hour here in Louisville. Check out some of the surface observations on the image to the right. Indianapolis and Evansville, IN are coming in at 9 degrees at the moment with temperatures getting even closer to 0 as you make your way toward Peoria, IL. Wind chill values will get a few degrees below zero tonight, especially in the suburbs of Jefferson and surrounding counties.

Our attention turns to yet another storm that should affect the Louisville area as soon as Wednesday evening. If you thought this past storm was a bear to forecast, try figuring this one out! Since temperatures will be hovering near freezing at the surface across the area with upper-air temperatures varying, this is going to be a real mess. The 0z NAM model run keeps Louisville and points northward mostly in the snow, but the 18z GFS had quite a mixed bag of precipitation for us, including freezing rain, sleet, snow, and plain rain. The 0z GFS is just now coming in and it appears that there will be a longer period of snow here in Louisville according to that run, but freezing rain or sleet could take hold on Thursday as warmer temperatures make their way in aloft (still need time for the BUFKIT output to be generated to find out exact precipitation type). If I had to guess right now, I'd say that Louisville and Southern Indiana will start out as snow on Wednesday night before switching over to either sleet or freezing rain sometime early Thursday before gradually changing back to snow as the storm ends. Should temperatures at the surface get just above freezing on Thursday, that period of freezing rain could turn to plain rain at times.

It's a real sticky situation as you can gather from my comments above. Since just a few miles will make a difference during this Wednesday/Thursday event, snow, sleet, and freezing rain amounts will vary wildly across Kentuckiana. I'll have an update tomorrow with more specifics and hopefully the computer models will have a better handle on this storm by then.

Check out some video that I shot of today's snow accumulations in Louisville below:


Be sure to select either 720p or 1080p and play at fullscreen for a high-definition experience.

12/12 - 9pm - Snow is Making Things Hazardous in Louisville

Hazardous Roads
I just got back from a drive out on the Watterson Expressway, I-64, and the Gene Snyder. All of those interstates had snow on them, but they weren't quite covered. Needless to say, everyone is taking it slow and easy out there tonight. Most side roads and even some major streets have snow cover on them right now around Louisville, so take extra precautions if you're out driving tonight into tomorrow. With temperatures getting below 20 tonight in the city, the salt that Metro road crews have put down will not be as effective and major roadways could be difficult to drive on.

Snow Tonight

Louisville has been getting hit by multiple snow bands throughout the evening and it appears that at least a couple more developing in Indiana right now could hit us later on tonight. Most areas around the city and surrounding counties have seen an inch or two of snow with locally heavier amounts. These snow bands tonight could give us another inch or two in places, so a total snow accumulation of 2-3" in the city looks about right. Many area school systems are already announcing closures tomorrow and I'm inclined to think that schools around Louisville may have delays or closures based on the poor road conditions already present. (EDIT 9:23pm: Jefferson County Public and Catholic Schools have announced they will be closed tomorrow)

Gusty Winds

The winds are really going to pick up tonight on the backside of this storm. Winds just to our west in Paducah, KY and Southern Illinois are topping 25mph and those speeds are certainly headed our way. Winds tonight into tomorrow could get up to 35mph. That kind of wind will put wind chills down to zero and blow this dry, powdery snow around like dust. Visibilities will likely be reduced tonight and tomorrow, so keep an eye out if you're traveling.

Here's some irony for you... I have an appointment to get my wisdom teeth removed tomorrow morning. Not sure if that's still going to happen or not. If the surgeon's office is open tomorrow, I won't be posting on the blog or Facebook/Twitter for about a day or so while I'm recovering. If it's not, I'll have more updates tomorrow!

12/10 - 12:30pm - Crazy Weather on the Way in Louisville!

I'm back home in Louisville after a long drive from Mississippi last night. My third semester at MSU is over after going through my final exams and now it's time to move on to more important things, like a potential accumulating snow here in Louisville this weekend!


The Latest
The computer forecast models have had a very difficult time trying to forecast this weekend's storm across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. Earlier this week there were vast differences in where the low pressure center of this storm would track. Some models had the low moving into central Tennessee or central Kentucky before cutting northward to Ohio/West Virginia, and others had it moving into Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana before cutting north to the Great Lakes. The Tennessee/Kentucky track is the one that would give Louisville a snowstorm, but it appears a more northerly track will take place. The HPC's (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) depiction of the northern track is on the right image. Luckily, for you snowlovers out there, this is not the end of our snow chances for this storm here in Kentuckiana!

As the cold air behind this storm catches up with the back end of the rain we'll see on Saturday, we may see a brief burst of wet snow on Saturday night. Then, light snow will wrap around the back end of the storm and impact us from the north on Sunday, possibly into Monday. By the time this is all said and done, I think Louisville will have 2-3" (isolated 4") of snow on the ground with lower amounts south and higher amounts north of here. The 6z GFS model seems to be picking up on these totals well and I've posted its forecast snowfall accumulation map to the left. You can click the image for a larger view if needed.

Here's what the National Weather Service in Louisville says about all of this:

THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR CAN CATCH UP TO THE PRECIP...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS BEFORE WE GET INTO A BRIEF DRY SLOT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST INDIANA COUNTIES AND THE BLUEGRASS BY MONDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.  TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION.

Even though we have a general track somewhat ironed out now, there are a couple of details that could increase our snow totals. While the GFS/ECMWF (European)/NAM/CMC models all generally agree on a northern track to this storm, the UKMET model is still taking a more southerly track near the Ohio Valley. At this point I think it's an outlier solution, but nevertheless there is a sliver of a chance that the low could take a little jog southward and impact our snow totals. There's also a chance that a secondary low could form well to the south of the primary storm and the implications of that are pretty substantial on our snow totals. Chances for that look slim as well as most computer models either don't have it or get rid of it before it exits Texas. Again, these are just a couple little things to watch that could affect us if they come to fruition by some outside chance.

As if the snow wasn't enough, we'll also have to contend with gusty winds of 25-35mph on Sunday which will blow the drier snow around and create visibility issues. Temperatures will also plummet during the storm as a cold front comes through, meaning we'll see highs only in the 20's for Sunday and Monday here in the Metro. Factor those chilly temperatures in with the winds and you've got yourself below zero windchills. That's dangerous weather in itself... stay warm out there!

I'll be posting updates on my Facebook and Twitter accounts today if there are any updates.