5/24 - 11:45am CDT - HIGH Risk in Oklahoma

Yet another tornado outbreak is on the way in the United States today and this time we're going to be smack-dab in the middle of it. A strong cut-off area of low pressure moving across the Plains this afternoon will provide the needed moisture-laden surface winds from the southeast and dry, pushing air from the southwest to create a sharp dry line that will be the focus for storm development this afternoon. Instability values will be off the charts as the cap (thunderstorm-inhibiting layer of warm air above the surface) breaks sometime during the middle of the afternoon. Temperatures aloft today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, so storms should stay isolated, especially south of the Kansas border. Locations near that border will most likely see a similar situation to yesterday, when tons of developing storms merged into an un-chaseable complex. There's a bit of a cloud shield situated vertically across the central part of the state this morning, but it should clear out fairly quick.


The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare HIGH Risk for Oklahoma and Southern Kansas because of how potent this setup looks. The issuance of a HIGH Risk may not seem rare because of all the destructive outbreaks that have happened this year, but overall they don't issue one but once or twice at the most in a normal season. The risk includes a 45% tornado risk (!), something that has only been used for the devastating April 27th tornado outbreak in the South this year. Needless to say, expectations are high and a lot of folks are nervous around here. We're getting in position right now in Oklahoma and making adjustments as necessary based on conditions.


With such a huge outbreak expected, today is certainly the day that you need to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for my latest chase updates and photos if you haven't already.

5/18 - 9:30am CDT - We're Back to Chasing!

It's been a long start to the week since there haven't been any storms to chase here in the Great Plains. That changes today. We're on our way to Oklahoma in search of tornadoes this afternoon, and I think the potential is looking pretty good considering how things have been this week. Moisture is still going to be an issue, but surface dew points should recover somewhat today. That recovery will take time, so storms may not form until later in the afternoon. Easterly winds at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft at 500mb (18,000 ft) should create ample shear for today's setup, meaning any supercells that form will stay discrete and have the associated tornado risk with them. CAPE or instability shouldn't be a problem based on the modeling for this afternoon and the cap (warm updraft-inhibiting layer of air aloft) should break sometime after 3pm. Given these factors, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon for much of Southwest Kansas and Western Oklahoma with a 5% tornado risk for the Panhandle region through Southwest Oklahoma.


Be sure to follow my updates on Facebook and Twitter for the latest on our storm chasing adventures this afternoon!

5/7 - 4pm CDT- Hello From Amarillo, TX!

I'm all settled in here at our hotel in Amarillo after a flying in from Louisville. Tonight our tour guests on tour 2 will gather for orientation at a conference room here in the hotel and then we'll go out for a nice dinner before a week of gas station burritos and fast food while chasing.

As a tradition during each tour that departs from Amarillo, the restaurant we'll be eating at is the world-famous Big Texan Steak Ranch. This place is the real deal here in the Texas Panhandle if you're looking for a taste of the stereotypical "Wild West". At the center of the two-floor establishment is an elevated table where diners can try their hand at eating a 72oz steak (with side dishes) within an hour's time. Besides being the spotlight for all the diners at the restaurant, each participant's attempt at eating this behemoth is streamed live online via a video camera mounted on the second floor. It's a fun place and it certainly starts each tour with a lighthearted ice-breaker for everyone.

Tomorrow's target will be a spit decision. Our target area will most likely be somewhere near Wichita Falls, Texas, which is just a few hours drive from Amarillo, or Northern Nebraska (maybe Kansas?). The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather posted for West Oklahoma/North Central Texas and Northern Nebraska/Southern South Dakota, but we'll see how everything sets up in the morning before deciding on a specific target area.

The NAM model has a good setup for the Texas/Oklahoma border near Wichita Falls right now with high CAPEs, serviceable wind shear, and decent low-level moisture. The LCLs (Lifted Condensation Level - height of cloud bases) are a little high for my taste at 3000 to 6000ft, which could limit tornado potential in any supercell that fires up. The other chase target in Northern Nebraska/Southern South Dakota (or Northern Kansas based on some of the newest model output) seems to have most of the characteristics of the Texas/Oklahoma one, but LCLs will be slightly lower and shear values could be higher. Those two components alone lead credence to a higher tornado threat, but there's concern that moisture from Texas won't make it up there in time for the advertised severe weather development (see right image - 850mb dew points at 0z Monday). We'll see how it looks in the morning before a final judgement is made!

Be sure to keep up with my updates on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest information while we're chasing tomorrow!

5/6 - 4:30pm - The Packing Has Begun!

My suitcase is getting packed and tomorrow is the day! I'm leaving for Amarillo, TX tomorrow morning from Louisville on what should be a perfect day for travel across much of the US. The Kentucky Derby is tomorrow afternoon, so the airport experience here in Louisville may be a little more festive than usual! As usual, we'll have orientation tomorrow evening in Amarillo for the new storm chasing tour guests who will be with us next week. Speaking of next week, things are looking rather active...

The post from yesterday about the overall pattern setup still applies for next week, but we're starting to get a few more details today about what will happen. Sunday could be an active day across North Texas and West Oklahoma as this trough begins digging into the Plains and the dryline pushes east, but there are concerns about capping (a warm layer of air above the surface that inhibits thunderstorm development). The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) thinks that this capping shouldn't be a big deal due to moisture and hot temperatures near the surface, but we'll see. Here's their day 3 (Sunday) severe weather outlook with a Slight Risk in West Oklahoma and Texas near Wichita Falls:


Capping is always one of those things that you have to wait until the morning of the chase to figure out because it is so finicky on the computer models. Even then, a slight change in conditions can keep the capping in place and limit storm development to nothing. This could be even more of an issue on Monday. The good news is that a partially capped environment can limit the growth of numerous small supercell storms so that only a few stronger ones are able to push through the cap and develop discreetly. These strong supercells are the ones we want to chase since they have the greatest potential of producing tornadoes.

The SPC has highlighted risk areas for Tuesday and Wednesday in the Plains as well, but we'll get to the specifics on those days once we take care of the dryline severe weather setup on Sunday and possibly Monday:


I'll post here tomorrow as soon as I get to our hotel in Amarillo to give you an update! Remember that you can follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest storm chasing updates from the road!

4/23 - 2:30pm - West Tennesse Weather / Last Week's Severe

The clouds that were supposed to hang around a bit longer today have actually burned off early across West Tennessee and that presents some issues in the forecast. This has lead to increased instability and the chance for some windy thunderstorms this afternoon in portions of West Tennessee that were not expected based on what data was available this morning. We'll see how this develops, but the SPC is considering posting a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for West Tennessee due to this possibility. Otherwise, expect a small chance for a storm tomorrow with most places seeing very nice weather for Easter-related activities.

Next week looks extremely active severe weather-wise for the region. A pair of disturbances will provide chances for severe weather on Monday and Wednesday, with Wednesday being the most concerning at the moment for widespread severe weather. Everyone from Louisville, Kentucky to Birmingham, Alabama to Jackson, Mississippi to Memphis, Tennessee needs to keep watch on this system. Check out the video below for your complete West Tennessee forecast and some early-morning shenanigans with Peeps Easter candy:



This is my last Saturday at WBBJ for a while since the semester at MSU is ending next week and my storm chasing trip begins the week after. I'll be back doing regular shows again in August once school starts back up. Speaking of severe weather, how about that outbreak last week in Mississippi? Check out this panoramic shot that I took of a supercell and it bore down on Mississippi State's campus on Wednesday:

This photo was shot on an iPhone and has received over 17,000 views on Twitter. Numerous local TV stations aired it on their newscasts and Jim Cantore even showed it on The Weather Channel for quite some time while explaining the cell's characteristics and talking a little bit about my enrollment as a meteorology student at Mississippi State (thanks Jim!). I just love when my storm pictures and videos get airtime since I work hard to capture them. Can't wait to get even more pictures when I start storm chasing in 14 days!

My storm chasing blog begins on May 7th right here and on RyanHoke.com. As usual, I'll be posting daily updates with photos, HD videos, reports, and so much more. Don't forget to go ahead and follow me on Facebook and Twitter so you can be ready to receive my up-to-the-minute chase updates!

1/7 - 8:15pm - Big Changes to Southern Winter Storm!

A day makes quite a difference when it comes to winter storm forecasting, and boy do we have some changes in the forecast to talk about. The major US-based computer models, the GFS and NAM, have both trended colder and wetter in today's runs compared to yesterday. Instead of talking about ice problems in Starkville and the Golden Triangle, we're now talking heavy snow. Jackson, TN has also seen a bump in snow totals on the models, with 2-4" now possible in the Hub City.

Jackson, TN
While no Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the Jackson area, snow totals could reach 2-4" by Monday midday. While this won't be a very heavy snowfall, it'll certainly cause travel problems across West Tennessee. The snow totals will increase as you head toward the Mississippi border, where up to 5 inches is possible. As you'll see in the graphic to the right, Winter Storm Watches begin with the Tennessee counties bordering Mississippi and go all the way south to just north of the Gulf Coast. I saw earlier this evening that brine has been applied to many roads across West Tennessee and that's certainly good news for travelers in the region on Sunday into Monday. I'll have the latest forecast for Jackson and West Tennessee tomorrow morning at 6am on WBBJ ABC 7's Good Morning West Tennessee!

Here's what the National Weather Service in Memphis has to say about this system:

GIVEN ALL OF THIS...IT SEEMS BEST TO CONTINUE WITH AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF JONESBORO TO PARIS...3 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...AND 5 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DESPITE SOME HIGHER QPF SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO...WILL NOT PUSH TOTALS ABOVE 8 INCHES FOR NOW. LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THESE TOTALS AS HOPEFULLY BETTER MODEL OUTPUT BECOMES AVAILABLE.

Starkville, MS
The shift from a couple inches of snow with ice accumulations to heavy snow accumulations of 4-8" in Starkville by Monday morning on the computer models has been remarkable today. Colder temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere and increased precipitation totals have really bumped up the snow totals across the Golden Triangle and I think this is a much better solution than an ice storm in the area. Unfortunately, that risk has shifted to Central Mississippi just south of Macon, MS and power outages and tree damage could be an issue down there. The most ambitious computer model today has been the 18z NAM run (on left), which gave Starkville over 9 inches of snow. I don't think we'll get quite that much snow, but the National Weather Service's 4-8" forecast looks on-par with what I'm thinking at this point. This will be the largest snow storm in quite a few years should this pan out, so get ready for some significant travel issues in North and Central Mississippi on Sunday night and Monday. I'll keep watch on the latest model runs and post tomorrow with the latest updates!

Here's what the National Weather Service in Jackson, MS says about Mississippi's winter weather chances:

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF OUTPUT GENERALLY SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET AND A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...ALONG AND N OF A BASTROP LA TO MACON LINE. GIVEN THE FORECAST QPF...THIS WOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA. ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR...A FULL WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. DEPENDING ON WHAT THE DOMINANT PCPN TYPE ENDS UP BEING...THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SLEET...OR A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF GLAZE. ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...PRECIP LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW/SLEET THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN WITH SOME WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL BE UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM SUN TO 6 AM MON PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

Don't forget that you can follow my up-to-the minute weather updates on my Facebook and Twitter accounts.

5/19 - 11:15am CDT - Another Oklahoma Outbreak

Things are really lining up this morning for another severe weather outbreak in Oklahoma. The dry line will push east to near Lawton, Oklahoma this afternoon, providing a good source of lift this afternoon. CAPE values (instability) will be over 4000 J/kg in some areas and shear will be well over 40 kt. As low pressure moves into the state, winds should back to the east somewhere between Central and South Oklahoma depending on exact movement. Dew points near or over 70 will be markedly better than yesterday's setup in Texas as well. Fast southwest flow at 500mb and diffluence at that level will also help get uplift going. The best news I've seen this morning is that the storm motion is still around 20-25 kt, meaning the storms will be moving slow enough for us to chase them. Last week in Oklahoma we had storms that were moving 40-50 kt and we just could not stay up with them. The SPC has issued a Moderate Risk and a 15% hatched tornado risk for most of Oklahoma, which is the best probability we've seen this week.

Don't forget to view our LIVE video stream this afternoon at http://stormchasertv.com when storms break out. To get updates on our chase and to find out when we're streaming, follow me on Twitter or Facebook.

UPDATE 12pm CDT: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a HIGH Risk of severe weather for portions of Oklahoma including Oklahoma City.

5/18 - 11:15 am CDT - Lubbock Here We Come!

We're on the road to Lubbock, Texas right now, which is our target area for the day. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for this area, and we're also under a 10% risk for tornadoes. Instability, shear, and winds are all looking very good for later this afternoon, but the flies in the ointment right now are moisture and cloud cover. A cloud shield is moving into Texas right now from New Mexico will have to clear out before we can see any good severe storms. On the moisture side, dewpoints are in the 50's around Lubbock, which is too low. Should dewpoints not rise this afternoon, we'll have storms with high bases. We'll see how both of these things develop this afternoon. For now, we'll wait around and find something to do in Lubbock!

Remember that you can see our LIVE video stream during severe weather at http://stormchasertv.com. You can also follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest chase updates.

5/17 - 1pm MDT - Caves and Storms in New Mexico

We just got through touring Carlsbad Caverns in New Mexico this morning. Hiking down to 800 feet under the surface was quite an experience and it was a good walk for us since we were in the vehicles so much yesterday. To those back home who've been to Mammoth Cave in Kentucky, Carlsbad Caverns has a much steeper walking path and it's quite a workout after an hour or so.

We're in good position for today's storms already as a cold front is getting ready to stall out in our vicinity and warm southeast winds are blowing pretty well. CAPE values (instability) of over 3000 J/kg are taking hold here in Southeast New Mexico, so any storm that forms will have a good environment to grow in. A very distinct outflow boundary is moving southward from Lubbock, TX and should kick off some supercells on the south side of it. Southeast winds in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas will help funnel good moisture and may help to increase shear as well. Overall, the good news today is that we'll probably see some storms today.

The Storm Prediction Center has released a mesoscale discussion for the area we're in and they'll likely issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch this afternoon. Things are heating up out here!

Don't forget to check http://stormchasertv.com to see our live video stream. Follow me on Twitter and Facebook to get the latest updates on our chase and find out when we're streaming live video.

5/16 - 10:30am CDT - SE New Mexico

We're on our way to the southeast corner of New Mexico to see what kind of storms develop down there this afternoon. We're not terribly optimistic about today's setup because of weak surface winds and an ongoing MCS (mesoscale convective system - line of storms) this morning on the Texas/Mexico border. Redeeming qualities of today's setup are good instability, decent shear, and ample moisture. The increased elevation should provide a little bit of lift out there, but we're not seeing the push of dry air from the west that we need. In any case, we'll see how it goes today.

We'll be streaming LIVE video at http://stormchasertv.com if storms form today. You can follow me on Twitter and Facebook as well to get the latest updates on our chase and video streaming.

5/12 - 11:30am CDT - Kansas Here We Come!

Yesterday looked promising, but the environment was just too capped to allow for any good storms. We chased two developing supercells south of Woodward, OK, but both perished before they could mature. The number of storm chasers on both of these cells was astounding. At one point we were across the street from Reed Timmer and his TVN "Dominator" from the Discovery Channel Storm Chasers show. Later that evening, Tim Samaras from the same TV show walked in the door of the Pizza Hut we were eating at. We'll see who we can find while we're out there today!

The target location for today is somewhere around or east of Pratt, KS. An area of low pressure spinning around near Dodge City should provide east winds this afternoon, which are crucial to tornadic development. Dewpoints near 70, CAPE values over 4000 J/kg, EHI values above 6, and bulk shear around 40 kt should be quite adequate for supercell development in Central and East Kansas. Storm motion will also be from 20-30 kt (25-35 mph), so it won't be like Monday near Oklahoma City when the supercells outran us. I'll be posting frequent updates on Twitter and Facebook today, including notification of when we'll be streaming LIVE video at http://stormchasertv.com.

5/11 - 11am CDT - South Oklahoma

We're on our way to Southern Oklahoma to try our luck with storms that will form late this afternoon. An area of low pressure in Colorado will generate southeasterly winds throughout South and Central Oklahoma, but the more preferred easterly winds will be in Northern Oklahoma. But since there will be more moisture and instability to the south, we think somewhere just south of Oklahoma City seems to be a good target area for today. Shear will not be as intense as yesterday, but I think it will be ample for severe storm development. EHI values, which are decent indicators of supercellular and tornadic development (see left image) will be pretty high in this area as well. The good thing is that any storm that forms will be moving about 30 mph, which is about half of the speed they were moving yesterday.

As always, we'll be streaming LIVE video at http://stormchasertv.com when storms begin to form today. You can also get updates on our chase and when we'll be streaming video on Twitter and Facebook.

5/10 - 11am CDT - HIGH RISK Chasing Today!

We're in for a big day of storm chasing here in North Oklahoma as all the right elements com together for a sizable outbreak of severe weather. We just left our hotel in Blackwell, OK, where it's 54 degrees and visibilities are less than a mile due to fog and mist. As a warm front moves northward through Oklahoma, this may intensify before things clear out quickly early this afternoon. Once things clear out, it shouldn't be too long before we're picking a supercell to chase! Needless to say, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare HIGH risk for the area.

Things will be very active today because instability, shear, moisture, and numerous other factors are aligning pretty well. CAPE values well in excess of 3000 J/kg, dewpoints near 70, bulk shear (0-6km) over 70 kt, and the jet screaming overhead are going to set off some very intense supercell thunderstorms this afternoon. Some of these storms will go from small puffy cumulus clouds to monster storms within an hour because of the intense uplift. Needless to say, the feeling is electric out here and we're hoping that things materialize as forecast.

We'll be streaming LIVE video today at http://stormchasertv.com when storms start initiating. If you've just found my blog through John Belski's blog or another source, welcome! Follow me on Twitter or Facebook to to get the latest updates on our chase and see when we're streaming live video.

5/7 - 4:30pm - Leaving for Storm Chasing Tomorrow!

I'm flying out to Amarillo, TX tomorrow morning to begin my month-long Plains storm chasing trip with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. We'll start chasing on Sunday, but I think the real action could come on Monday when an outbreak of supercell thunderstorms could affect Central Oklahoma and Kansas. I'll be posting updates, pictures, and HD video clips from our chase right here on my blog until June 5th when I come back to Louisville. Don't forget that you can get up-to-the-minute updates from my trip by following me on Twitter or friending me on Facebook.

I made a visit to WAVE-TV today in Louisville to do an on-camera interview for a storm chasing news piece that will air on or around May 21st.

Meteorologist Kevin Harned (who interviewed me today) will be joining us on our chase from May 29th to June 5th. It's going to be great fun to have two guys from Louisville out there looking for tornadoes!


A strong line of thunderstorms will make it's way through the Louisville area tonight, bringing with it the possibility of damaging winds, hail, and maybe even a tornado. Even without the thunderstorms, a Wind Advisory is in effect until 8pm. There's a greater risk of severe weather tonight in Indiana and into Ohio with the possibility of tornadoes up that way (tornado risk probabilities from the SPC are posted to the left). From East Mississippi, to Louisville, and to the Great Plains, severe weather seems to follow me around!

I'll post here tomorrow when I get to Amarillo and I'll also post a few travel updates on Twitter and Facebook if you want to see where I am!

5/6 - 3pm - Only One Day Left!

It's hard to believe that tomorrow is my last full day in Louisville before I leave for my storm chasing trip on Saturday morning. I'll be heading out to Amarillo, TX to start my month-long journey throughout the Plains in search of severe weather with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. Remember, I'll be making daily blog posts with HD storm video, pictures, and chase reports. You can also follow me on Twitter or Facebook to get up-to-the-minute chase updates, meaning you'll be the first to know if we see a tornado!

We may be heading to West Texas on Sunday, our first day, to chase any supercells that form there, but conditions are looking ripe for a good-sized severe weather outbreak in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas on Monday, which will be our second day of chasing. Instability (CAPE) values approaching 3000 J/kg, bulk shear of over 60 kt, and dewpoints near 70 degrees will really get things going late Monday afternoon. My guess right now is that we'll probably position ourselves somewhere in Central Oklahoma in the morning and wait to see where the winds begin to turn from the east. Winds during the morning hours should be from the South and Southeast, but areas that begin to back to the east will have the most potential for tornadoes. We may end up anywhere from Kansas to North Central Texas depending on how conditions evolve. The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined the potential severe weather outbreak in their 4-8 day outlook.

Back home here in Louisville, there's a 15% risk of severe weather tomorrow. We may see some severe storms tomorrow evening as a cold front approaches the region, bringing with it the risk of hail, high wind, and possibly a tornado or two. The bigger risk of severe weather will be to our northeast in Ohio, where instability values, shear, and moisture will be higher. Definitely something to keep an eye on tomorrow, but I think it won't be near as bad around Kentuckiana tomorrow as some of the previous severe weather outbreaks we've seen over the past couple weeks around the Southeast.

4/29 - 12am CDT - Final Exams/Derby/Storm Chasing

It's been a long week of packing and final exams at Mississippi State University. I finished my chemistry, world geography, and calculus II final exams this week and I'll be taking my English composition II exam just before I leave for Louisville this evening. My car is just about packed (yes, all of my stuff really does "fit" in my Honda Fit) and I have just a few more hours here on campus before I depart this evening.

I'll be returning home just before the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Right now I think we may have some weather trouble on Saturday as a pair of low pressure systems to the west try to turn north as they near the Mississippi River. Heavy rain will be a major issue for Derby according to the latest computer models. There's even a risk for some severe weather around the region at that time, but I think heavy rain will be the bigger story around the Ohio Valley. If you think the infield at Churchill Downs is crazy during good weather, get ready for a muddy mess in the heavy rain. I'm a bit concerned that there may be ongoing thunderstorms near the 6 o'clock hour, which might mean a postponement of the Derby. We'll see how the weather situation develops!

You've probably noticed that I switched out the banner of the blog to prepare for my upcoming storm chasing trip. I just can't believe that I'm only 9 days away from a month's worth of storm chasing in the Plains with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. I'll be bringing you 1080p HD video, pictures, chase reports and more on this blog and through my Twitter and Facebook accounts daily during the chase. I'm looking forward to meeting all our new and returning guests this year on our tours. Meteorologist Kevin Harned of WAVE 3 TV in Louisville, who has been a tour guide and severe weather expert with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours for years, will be joining us during my last week of chasing starting May 29th. It'll be great to have another Louisvillian out there with us, and I'm sure Kevin will be broadcasting his own storm chasing updates on WAVE 3 throughout the week.

All the storm chasing action on my blog starts May 8th!

4/27 - 4:15pm - MSU Forecast Video

We're in for a nice couple days here in Starkville as we recover from this weekend's severe weather outbreak. Expect sunny skies until Friday, when chances for thunderstorms will increase ahead of a cold front coming from the west. There may be some strong or even severe storms on Saturday, but heavy rain will be the big story for the weekend and even into next week.



Sadly, this will be my last MSU forecast for this academic year. I'm heading back home to Louisville on Thursday to prepare for my month-long storm chasing trip with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. I'll be flying out to Amarillo on May 8th (only 10 days away) and we'll start chasing on May 9th. I'll be blogging about my trip here as well as giving you updates on Facebook and Twitter throughout each chasing day. If and when we see a supercell and/or a tornado, I'll be sure to post high-definition video of it right here on the blog. It's going to be an excellent month!

1/26 - 5pm - MSU Forecast Video

The winds should finally die down tomorrow, meaning things will not be as brisk around MSU. Rain is in the forecast for Thursday night into Friday, which could be heavy at times. There is still some uncertainty over whether we will receive any frozen precipitation on Friday afternoon as this system exits the area, so be sure to check back on Twitter and Facebook for any late-breaking changes. Areas to our north in Tennessee and Kentucky could get quite a few inches of snow and some ice out of this system!

6/14 - 11am MDT - East Colorado Again!

Today's our first day of active chasing on tour 7, and it looks like we won't have to drive far! Upslope winds will fire up thunderstorms in East Colorado this afternoon, and supercells should be present. CAPE value look pretty good for this elevation and moisture is holding well in place. Looks like we'll end up somewhere east of Pueblo again, so hopefully today's storms are a bit more productive down there.

Like last week, I'll be on Twitter and Facebook with up-to-the-minute updates.

6/10 - 11:30am CDT - SE Kansas

Today's setup is quite complex, so the decision for our target area was not an easy one. An area of storms in the Texas Panhandle could send a cloud shield into SE Kansas this afternoon, so we looked into other areas. Colorado will have some up slope thunderstorms today, but winds are not strong enough for rotating storms. Going south of the area of storms in Texas was another option, but that doesn't look too good and traveling that far would put us far away from tomorrow's target area.

So SE Kansas it is. We think we may be able to sneak down to the KS/OK border and catch cells that fire before the cloud shield from Texas reaches them. As of right now, the area looks good with clear skies, decent shear, and pretty good instability. As long as we can keep the clouds away, we're in good shape!

Will anything exciting happen today like yesterday? I really hope so because I like being able to post good video on YouTube in the evenings, especially when Good Morning America picks it up!

As always, Twitter and Facebook will be active today. I noticed a few of you had issues with the live video stream yesterday and that was because we lost our internet connection a couple of times. I'll post on here when the video feed is active, and if it doesn't work give it ten minutes and try again in case we lose our connection. When we're finished streaming for the day, I'll put out an update on Twitter and Facebook.