9/24 - 2pm - Ringing in Fall with Great Weather!

What a great day outside it is here at Mississippi State! We're still in the lower 70's at this hour and the dewpoint is staying low in the mid 40's too. This translates to a beautiful day with low humidity that's not terribly characteristic of September in Mississippi. Nevertheless, what great weather to ring in the first week of fall! Sunny skies will continue throughout most of the workweek but temperatures will rise through the 80's as we move forward. This change in temperature, and unfortunately an increase in humidity, will be due to a more southerly wind component coming into play that will bring us more moist air from the south. It's not looking like we'll hit 90 this week for a high at any point, but we could get close to it. A system pulling through by the weekend will increase our shower and storm chances a little bit by that point but it's not entirely clear when the best chances will be at this point. Check out my CampusConnect forecast below for all the details!

9/17 - 2pm - Tropical Rains Overtake Mississippi

Like heavy rain? Neither do I. That's what we have going on right now across most of Mississippi as an approaching cold front and a low moving onshore from the Gulf of Mexico are combining to give us a good soaking. The downpours and storms across the Golden Triangle area of Mississippi are definitely tropical in nature because moisture is streaming in right from the Gulf as the low pressure center out there continues to move our way. Storms will continue, and rain be at times heavier, this evening across the northeast quarter of Mississippi. Storms will remain likely tomorrow morning but thankfully the front will be moving through at that time and replace the rainy, tropical air with much more pleasant dry and cool air from the north. The middle of this week behind the front looks beautiful! Check out your full Mississippi State University CampusConnect forecast below for all the details on this week's forecast.



Like the new intro video and 5 Day Forecast background in the above forecast? I've been working on those graphics for the past few months and we're rolling them out today as we kick off the official start of our CampusConnect forecasts for the year here at MSU.

9/5 - 11:35pm - Stormy Week, Cooler Weekend, and TV Tomorrow!

It's been a stormy day across West Tennessee and North Mississippi as a complex of storms moved through the region this evening generating multiple instances of severe wind. The storms that caused these are still moving southeastward through Northeast Mississippi but have lost their severe punch. Even though it appears these storms will miss Starkville and the Golden Triangle in Mississippi there is the possibility that an isolated storm or two will try to form off the western end of these tonight.

Storms will once again be a possibility tomorrow but they shouldn't be as potent or widespread. We'll have the moist, warm air in place to fuel storms but there won't be any real trigger besides a small upper-level disturbance or two that could try to form and move through. Friday night will be the best chance for storms in the near future though as a cold front sweeps through West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Since these storms will move through earlier in the evening across West Tennessee there is the possibility of a few of these going severe. The chance for severe weather decreases as you move southward into North Mississippi thanks to the later timing during Friday night that they'll be moving through. Will the rain be out of the picture in time for the Mississippi State/Auburn game on Saturday at 11am here in Starkville? It looks like that may be the case at this point but it's too far out to know for certain since the front will be exiting the region sometime during the morning. The big story instead of the storms will be the much cooler, much drier air behind the cold front. We're talking about highs in the upper 70's this weekend in West Tennessee and highs in the lower 80's across North Mississippi, both with low humidity. What a change! We just have to get through a Thursday and Friday full of the deplorable heat and humidity we've seen lately before the wonderful weekend weather arrives.

Looking for something to do tomorrow night? On the Travel Channel at 10 pm/9c tomorrow night a show called Extreme Tours will be airing and the first segment of the show will feature me and my pals at Storm Chasing Adventure Tours! A crew from the show came out to film and interview us as we chased this past spring in New Mexico and their footage along with clips from my library of tornado video will be airing. This program will showcase what we do as a tour group and how we make it happen. Quite a few of our tour guests and tour guides were interviewed for this and the camera crew that came rode along with us for a few hours. I did a sit-down interview with them along with an extensive round of showing off our vehicles and equipment. This should be a good show tomorrow and I'm certainly looking forward to my first appearance on a non-news national TV program! If you can't make it home in time to watch tomorrow be sure to set your DVR.

8/29 - 3:15pm - First Day of Broadcast Meteorology Lab

Today was my first day of broadcast meteorology lab here at Mississippi State. Most of you probably realize that I have a bit of a head start in this class, but there is always something to learn and I really enjoy helping others learn in a field that I love so much. Each of us started out the semester with an informal "first forecast" to break the ice and get those first-time jitters out of the way. Check out my forecast below:



It's not bad out there in Starkville today since those dewpoints are staying around 60 degrees and lower. We'll see a gradual return to the high humidity after tomorrow as Gulf moisture begins to filter back into the region. About the most exciting thing that will happen this week, excitement being used relatively here, is an upswing in rain chances toward Friday and the weekend as a cold front approaches from the north.

8/4 - 11:30am - Finally, a Break in Sight!

Ridge breaking at 500mb on Wed.

The weather here in Louisville is about the same as when I left it last week on vacation in California! The good thing is that a cold front that came through yesterday will keep temperatures in the lower 90's today, as opposed to mid 90's for the last few days, and the humidity will be a little less oppressive. That said, daily afternoon storm chances will increase tomorrow and especially Saturday when an area of surface low pressure will pass right over us. That low and the accompanying cold front will finally begin the breakdown of this hot, humid ridge that we've been stuck under for so long, but not before some higher heat and humidity sneaks its way into the region for the weekend. Temperatures will be in the 80's next week as this pattern breaks, which could be temporary at best if some of the long-range models are to be believed.

So far we've had 40 days with highs at 90 or above in Louisville, with 18 consecutive days at 90 or above on our current streak. At this point last year we were counting 46 days in the 90's so far, so it seems this summer is a fairly close repeat of last.

Talk of development in the tropics has come to a fever pitch lately as Tropical Storm Emily seems to be taking a path that will pass very close to the southeast coast of Florida. The forecast path has been flip flopping around a little bit over the last couple of days, but at least right now it appears that Florida will not see a landfall from this storm. Emily has sustained winds at 50 mph, which is still a ways from the 74 mph needed to be declared a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center's forecast includes Emily reaching hurricane status by Monday well off the coast of South Carolina.

7/21 - 2pm - Enough Excessive Heat to Go Around

93° in Louisville is hot on its own, but when you couple that with a very high 77° dew point (which puts relative humidity at 60%), you're talking about a heat index of 107°. We're well on our way to a high near 97° this afternoon. It's just hot. An Excessive Heat Warning, on left shaded in purple, remains in effect for the entire Louisville area until Saturday night as heat index values soar past 110° during the maximum heating of the day. Regardless of where you're from and the weather you're used to, your body cannot sustain itself in the hot, humid air we have in Louisville and much of the Midwest right now. Be sure to drink plenty of water and limit your activity outside this week to avoid heat-related illness.

Heat Index?

NC State Climate Office

I've been mentioning the term heat index for weeks now, so what exactly is the heat index you ask? Most people know it as the "feels like" temperature or what it feels like because of the humidity. That's basically it in a nutshell, but there's more to it. Mathematically, the heat index is a product of an equation that uses temperature and relative humidity. Factors like perspiration and body size averages are held constant, so the heat index is an educated guess at the "temperature" that most people are feeling. Don't let the "educated guess" usage fool you though, because higher humidity and in turn heat index values lessen the amount of evaporational cooling on your skin. If your body can't cool properly through this evaporation, you can overheat quite easily. It's interesting and useful to note that heat index values are based on what it feels like in the shade. Being in the sun can increase the heat index by up to 15°. Below is a table from NWS Pueblo, CO with heat index values and associated heat disorders:

---

With the heat we'll have a chance for afternoon scattered storms, which will increase significantly as we get closer to the passage of a cold front on Monday. Today's storms have been and should be staying south of Louisville, so we'll see no relief from the heat today!

7/3 - 12:30pm - Fantastic Fourth Forecasts

A cold front sliding southward through Indiana and Kentucky this morning has triggered some thunderstorms in Southwest Indiana that likely won't make it to the Louisville area this afternoon, but more storms could develop later on. While any storm that forms this afternoon could have heavy rain, lightning, and some gusty winds, most if not all will stay below severe limits. Temperatures are already in the upper 80's around the Louisville area, so a high near 93 today looks good at this point.

How about those Fourth of July forecasts? Hot and humid will be the rule for most locations, but scattered afternoon thunderstorms covering quite a large area could drench a few of those outdoor barbecues. The storms will be large in coverage due to a trough hanging around the eastern half of the US and a stationary front near the Ohio River.


Here are some Independence Day forecasts for selected regional locations from the National Weather Service:

Louisville, KY: Partly Sunny | 89 degrees | 40% afternoon storms
Lexington, KY: Partly Sunny | 86 degrees | 40% afternoon storms
Evansville, IN: Mostly Cloudy | 87 degrees | 50% afternoon storms
Indianapolis, IN: Mostly Sunny | 85 degrees
Cincinnati, OH: Partly Sunny | 86 degrees | 20% afternoon storms
Jackson, TN: Mostly Sunny | 93 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Memphis, TN: Mostly Sunny | 95 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Nashville, TN: Mostly Cloudy | 92 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Knoxville, TN: Partly Sunny | 91 degrees | 40% afternoon storms
Tupelo, MS: Mostly Sunny | 96 degrees | 20% afternoon storms
Starkville, MS: Mostly Sunny | 96 degrees | 20% afternoon storms
Jackson, MS: Mostly Sunny | 97 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Birmingham, AL: Partly Sunny | 94 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Atlanta, GA: Mostly Sunny | 94 degrees | 50% afternoon storms

6/29 - 11am - Quiet Weather is Back!

After what seemed like an endless parade of storms and severe weather across Kentucky, Indiana, and Tennessee, calmer weather is in place and we'll enjoy the fruits of that for most of this week. High pressure centered just east of the Cincinnati area will provide nearly cloudless skies and a rain-free forecast until the weekend. Sounds more like the summertime forecast you were looking for, doesn't it?

We'll also see a break from the humidity, with dew points staying between 45-60 degrees until Saturday. A dew point of 60 is considered to be uncomfortable humidity-wise, so things should stay just below that threshold. Dew points and storm chances, more of the summer-like pop-up variety instead of the spring severe outbreak, will be increasing this weekend and into next week. July 4th looks hot with temperatures in the lower 90's and a slight thunderstorm chance in the afternoon throughout much of the region.

8/22 - 2:30pm - Humidity Taking a Dive / MSU Weathercasts

The heat and humidity have been relentless for the past few weeks, which is quite normal for summer here in Mississippi. While we won't be able to do anything about the heat, the humidity will at least give way somewhat over the next couple days. A cool front (you really can't call this a cold front... not one aspect of this is cold!) will drop through the Golden Triangle tonight and lower our dew points for the next week or so. These lower dew points will do two things for us: 1) Decrease the oppressive humidity in the daytime and 2) help temperatures at night drop below 70 degrees. The decrease in humidity during the hottest part of the day is a big deal because heat index values will be considerably lower than last week. Our overnight lows will dip because a decrease in air moisture (A.K.A. lower humidity) means that the air won't be able to retain heat at night and temperatures should fall into the 60's for lows. So even though we won't shake off the mid-90 temperatures with this front, the drop in humidity will do wonders for our overnight temperatures and daytime heat index values. High pressure in place across the Eastern US should keep us dry this week.

Tropical Depression Six has formed in the Atlantic and could become a hurricane by Wednesday. Winds right now are at 35mph and it's moving northwest at around 12mph. I really don't think this storm will hit the US and should curve back out to sea before it gets near to land. It's too early to say that definitively, but I think it's a good bet right now.

My Mississippi State University video forecasts return to this blog on Tuesday evening! Like last year, I'll be posting those videos every Tuesday evening as I continue to improve on my broadcasting skills. The stakes are higher this time around because I'll be putting those skills to good use in a few weeks time for something very special that will be announced soon. Like I said in the last post, this announcement will not disappoint, especially for those of you who have been following this blog for over three and a half years.

7/25 - 12pm - More Heat and Scattered Storms

After a couple days of 96 degree weather in Louisville, we're on-track for a cool-down today. How much of a cool-down? Try four degrees. Yep, it's going to be another hot one today. With dew points in the lower 70's today, the heat and humidity will combine to produce heat index values at or above 100. No Heat Advisory will be issued, but it'll still be hot enough to cause problems if you're not hydrated. The other feature of our weather today will be the chance for some showers and thunderstorms around the region. A cool front that's situated just north of the Ohio River will provide a trigger for these scattered storms today, which should begin to form this afternoon. We're just outside of a Slight Risk area for severe weather from the SPC, but I think a few storms around the region could get strong due to increased atmospheric instability and a light touch of shear. A small daily chance for storms will exist through the rest of the week with temperatures hanging around in the lower 90's.

We may think the heat is bad here in Kentuckiana, but there's nothing like a warm July afternoon in Death Valley, California. Look at the forecast for that area today from the National Weather Service: 

Today: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 121. Calm wind becoming south between 4 and 7 mph.

7/16 - 12am - More Heat and Rain on the Way!

We topped out at 95 degrees today in Louisville, which was two degrees short of being the hottest day of the year so far. Higher dew points also stayed to our west today as well, so things were not as bad as they could have been. We've had 31 days this year with 90 degree temperatures or higher in town, and I'm sure we'll be able to break 40. Compare that with 13 last year.

A cold front sitting just north of the Ohio River is firing off some strong storms just to our west and we'll likely see some rain from those tonight as they push south. This front will stall out in Southern Kentucky and generate more rain chances for us on Friday and Saturday before things taper off on Sunday. Another front will bring daily rain chances on Monday and Tuesday, but high pressure will regain control for the rest of the week and dry things out. Temperatures will remain consistently in the low to mid 90's throughout the next week.

Oil has finally stopped leaking from BP's Deepwater Horizon rig accident site after a new containment cap was placed on it this afternoon. This marks a possible end to the 85 days of leakage that has caused mass devastation along the Gulf Coast and called into question the regulatory practices in place for the industry. There's still no guarantee that the cap will hold and it will be a "wait and see" game for many in Gulf Coast region. To read an article on the leak stoppage, click here.

7/12 - 9pm - So Where Did All That Rain Go? / 100 Degrees

We had quite a soaking over the weekend in most places around Louisville, but I was really expecting today to be the bigger event. As the term "chance" implies, some forecasts succeed while others fail. A few scattered storms formed last night in Western Indiana that were expected to become more widespread and hit Kentuckiana this morning, but they simply couldn't get organized. The rain that formed this afternoon (as you can see in the left radar image) stayed to our south, but storms that are developing in Missouri and West Kentucky right now may have enough juice to make it here early tomorrow morning. We definitely can't say that moisture will be a limiting factor in the evolution of these storms as dew points right now in Louisville are in the lower 70's. That's pretty humid! We'll see another rain chance on Tuesday before a cool front passes through on Wednesday. You would think that temperatures would decrease after the passage of a cool front, but hot air will rapidly build back into the area after it goes through. Temperatures will soar into the middle and upper 90's for Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

We may have had some rain this weekend, but overall the ground is still pretty dry in Louisville. Soil moisture levels have quite an influence on the air temperature, but they're especially crucial when you're talking about the heat of summer. If we don't see any rain tonight and tomorrow, I have a feeling that 100 degrees won't be too far from our grasp. A location or two, most likely in an area with lots of concrete, could get within a degree of 100 on Thursday. Next week has more potential in my mind because there is no appreciable rain in the computer models for the entire week and high pressure to our east will cause hot air from the south to flow into our neck of the woods. Should be interesting to see how it develops!

7/10 - 11:30am - More Rain on the Way!

After more than a week with no rain here in Louisville, Thursday and Friday really turned things around. We measured .71" of rain at my house on Thursday and Friday combined. That may be a higher number than most areas in town because we were caught under a small isolated storm on Thursday that only covered the Southeast portion of the county (see right image). Now that the cold front has passed, we're enjoying slightly cooler temperatures with lower humidity. We should get up to 90 today and a couple degrees warmer than that tomorrow.

Our next chance for rain comes on Monday as another approaching cold front fires off some showers and thunderstorms. That chance will last throughout the day on Tuesday before tapering off on Wednesday. We could get nearly two inches of rain out of this front as it comes through according to the HPC, so get those umbrellas ready!

9/27 - 2pm - MSU Forecast

The rain is over and MSU is beginning to dry out. The ground is still wet and there are still a few puddles around campus, but everything should have time to dry up this week. There will not be a drop of rain until Friday:


The storms on Friday may pack a bit of a punch, but I'm not sure if we'll see any severe weather yet. Regardless, a trough settling into the Eastern US early this week will allow temperatures and humidity to drop considerably. This lack of humidity will allow lows to get into the 40's on Monday and Tuesday night. If you can stand the cool evening temperatures, this should be a very pleasant week!

9/4 - 11am - Louisville!

After 27 days at Mississippi State University, I'm going home to Louisville tonight for the Labor Day weekend. It'll also be nice to get a break from the humidity here in Starkville, even though it's not that hot this week. Just to give you an idea, the dewpoint in Starkville is 66F right now and the dewpoint in Louisville is 59F. The higher the dewpoint, the higher the humidity is (relative to air temperature).

Here's the Louisville forecast from the NWS for this weekend:

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 84. East wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. East wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. East wind around 7 mph.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Labor Day: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.

Not too bad, but hopefully the rain holds off on Sunday and Labor Day!

8/26 - 10:30am - Tropical Storm Danny

Tropical Storm Danny has formed overnight and could potentially affect the East Coast this weekend. Winds right now are at 45mph and this storm is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday morning. The latest models are not agreeing on how far or near the coast it will get, but the National Hurricane Center's forecast track seems to be taking the average of the model tracks:


This is something we'll definitely need to keep watching this week.

Around here in Starkville the heat and humidity have returned. The temperature is already 80 degrees, so it won't take long to get into the lower 90's this afternoon. Stay cool out there!

8/23 - 12pm - MSU Forecast, Hurricane Bill to the UK

It's been hot and sticky over the past week here at Mississippi State, but a cold front that came through late last week really cooled things down and took the humidity out of the equation. It looks like the cool temperatures and low humidity will continue for the next couple of days, but more hot weather is in the works for the middle of this week. Things should remain dry for most of the week as well:


Category 1 Hurricane Bill is getting ready to clip Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in Canada today, but luckily the storm is weakening and will become a tropical storm tomorrow. The interesting part of this storm is where it's headed after Canada.... The United Kingdom. The storm will cross the Atlantic and what's left of it could make landfall in the upper part of the UK. It will most likely be just a bit of rain and wind by the time it gets there, but the fact that this storm has gone from Africa, to the US East Coast, then to the UK really shows how far a storm can travel.

8/15 - 1:30pm - Tropics, House Building

It's been an interesting 24 hours. Yesterday it looked like Tropical Depression Two might not regenerate it self after falling apart. Instead of dying out, it instead intensified to become Tropical Storm Ana. Here's the track on Ana, which is may or may not become a hurricane depending on the track it takes:


Obviously that track may have people in Florida a bit nervous at the moment, but things are always subject to change as we've seen in just the past few hours. The next area of interest in the Tropics is Tropical Depression Three, which is looking like a more serious contender right now than Ana. Take a look at the storm track:


The National Hurricane Center thinks this storm will be a hurricane by Wednesday. The computer models are loosely agreeing on a track just north of Puerto Rico, but it's difficult to estimate where it will go after that. The GFS model has been showing a hurricane coming onshore in the U.S. for the past couple days, but the landfall location has varied wildly. To sum it all up, it's just too early to tell what will happen with either storm.

Yesterday a couple friends and I went to work on the MSU-led Habitat for Humanity house in Starkville. Here are some pictures from our work day:


After working in the heat and humidity yesterday, I think I've finally adjusted to the climate here!

8/13 - 4:15pm - Let's Talk Tropics

I'm sure you've heard an earful about the Tropics roaring to life if you've watched TV lately. While nothing extraordinary has formed yet, tropical waves and depressions are beginning to make themselves known in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Two has been spinning around east of the Caribbean for the last couple days, but it's dying and may not strengthen again:


A tropical wave just coming off the African coast is really gaining attention today, especially because of its already-apparent organization on satellite imagery:


The GFS computer model seems to be hinting at an organized hurricane coming from this tropical wave, but it's extremely early to jump to conclusions. This is just something to keep an eye on at this point.

A ridge forming in the Southeast US is beginning to give some relief to areas hit by rain and high humidity over the last couple weeks. Most of the Southeast should see lower humidity and dry conditions this weekend, although it will be hot. I know that Starkville, MS was certainly much nicer today with the lower temperature and humidity levels!

7/7 - 1pm - Warm, Humid July Pattern Sets In

If you're a fan of the hot, humid, and sticky weather we experience every summer here in Kentuckiana, you're in luck. Temperatures rising into the mid 90's by late week will make things downright hot around here, but rain should put a damper on that for the weekend. A small disturbance will shoot through here on Wednesday as we warm up, but I don't expect any rain from it at this time. Next week still looks wet compared to this week.

Mississippi State University posted a nice press release yesterday about a scholarship I and five other incoming freshman received, click here.