A few brief showers scraped across northern portions of West Tennessee this morning as expected. The disturbance causing those morning showers has left behind some cloud cover across the region with peeks of sun here and there. More of the incredibly warm weather that we've seen for the past few days arrives tomorrow just in time for the Jackson Christmas Parade at 6:45pm. 75 still looks like a good bet for a high temperature during the afternoon as we start the workweek on Monday.
Much of the area is experiencing moderate drought conditions right now. Even though the growing season is pretty much over it is still important for rainfall to keep up so that we don't have an already-in-place drought come spring. The good news here is that we have a chance for a good soaking rain on Tuesday with over a half inch possible in most places. The front causing this rain will leave behind only slightly cooler temperatures in the 60's, which is still warmer than average for this time of year. The next round of rain on Friday and Saturday is the one to watch as it could bring much, much cooler weather to the area next weekend behind it.
Check out the video below from yesterday night's newscast on WBBJ for your full forecast!
Ready for a REAL taste of fall? It's here.... and It's going to stick around for quite awhile. A large mass of cool air continues to work its way into West Tennessee this morning behind yesterday's cold front. That means temperatures today will be getting into the upper 50's across the region. By the time we get to late tonight and early tomorrow morning we'll be talking about mid to upper 30's for lows. Bundle up! High pressure will keep this cooler air locked in place through the week and sunshine will be plentiful as it has been in most places today. We'll need to watch for some frost in areas during the mornings starting on Monday as temperatures fall to near freezing overnight. High temperatures will slowly work their way to near 70 degrees by the end of the workweek.
Let's talk about Hurricane Sandy. It's a weak hurricane right now but the setup is more complicated than just that. As it moves toward the Northeast it will merge with a trough moving across the eastern half of the nation. This will transition the storm from a hurricane to what's called an extratropical storm. Basically this means that the storm won't feed off of warm water like a tropical system would. This will turn Sandy into the very, very large storm that its already beginning to become. Threats for wind damage, storm surge, and flooding will be possible for a broad swath of the Delmarva Peninsula through New England. New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington DC are included in this among many other locations. The storm surge issues will be amplified by the size of the storm, which moves more mass of water, and by the fact that this will be happening during a full moon, which maximizes tide. Check out the tropical storm force wind probabilities to the right... this is pretty significant when you consider there's a 60-70% of sustained tropical storm winds from Delaware to Long Island.
Another threat this storm poses is snow. West Virginia with its higher elevations will bear the brunt of the snow with 1 to 2 feet expected in areas. The latest run of the GFS model paints a very large area of 18"+ snowfall amounts through Tuesday evening. This could be crippling because there are still leaves on the trees that this heavy, wet snow will weigh down on snap limbs. Mass power outages are very likely whether you're in the wind/rain area in the Northeast or in the snow area in West Virginia.
In the video below you'll get a full dose of information on Hurricane Sandy and your latest West Tennessee forecast.
As promised, a few light showers are moving across West Tennessee and they will become more numerous and heavier this afternoon. Not everyone will see rain but those that do can expect some gentle rains with not much accumulation and possibly a clap of thunder. Tomorrow is a different story though as a larger, more potent upper-level disturbance moves through and generates heavier rains and possibly some thunderstorms. This will be a day when most folks see rain with some areas, especially closer to the Mississippi border, seeing over an inch of rainfall accumulation. Tuesday morning will feature some showers but the cold front at the surface that will be moving through with the upper-level disturbance should be moving east of the area throughout the day. The rain and clouds will be on their way out with the front, so expect the second half of your Tuesday to be much nicer than the first. Cooler temperatures behind the front mean highs in the mid 70's and lows possibly into the 40's by Wednesday morning. That's some fall-like weather right there! Check out my full forecast from last night's 10pm show on WBBJ below.
If you watched the video you probably saw some changes from previous ones that I've posted. WBBJ debuted an all-new HD weather graphics system that has full 3D rendering capabilities. It's very slick, easy to use, and most of all, fun! The 3D zooms to Jackson's tonight and tomorrow forecast I built from scratch between shows yesterday and it was pretty amazing what the machine could do with so little time.
This is also my 2nd anniversary with WBBJ. A lot has changed since I started working there in September 2010 but one thing that hasn't changed is how much I enjoy doing shows there! Can't wait to keep going back there on select weekends during this school year.
Some showers and downpours did make it a little further north than expected today across West Tennessee. Last night's model guidance and thinking was that any of these scattered "pop-up" showers would stay mostly south of the Mississippi border, but a complex of storms moved a bit further north than expected out of Alabama into Middle Tennessee. This complex of storms brought with it a small boundary in the atmosphere that helped get these widely scattered showers going over portions of West Tennessee this afternoon. These have all since faded away and the region should have a stretch of hot and mostly clear weather through at least the middle of the week. Humidity will be on the increase as temperatures get into the upper 90's, so expect some dangerous heat index values well over 100 degrees. Storm chances look like they will now be increasing toward the end of the week as a front drops from the south but temperatures still appear to be heading toward the triple digits since this front likely won't make it far enough south to pass through.
My weathercast from last night's 10pm news on WBBJ in Jackson is available to watch below.
A few showers are ongoing across West Tennnessee right now, but this is quite a bit less than what was expected today. Dry air rotating around a area of high pressure has moved into the region because this high has nudged a bit further westward than originally forecast. This means that a majority of the shower activity has stayed west of the Mississippi River, but a couple thundershowers could still pop up before sunset. These should mostly dissipate before the overnight hours.
Heat and humidity are on their way back as a large ridge of high pressure moves eastward over the next few days. This should surpress storm chances a little bit, but not entirely because temperatures aloft will still be a little cool. This heat at the surface and the slightly cool air aloft should create the typical "summertime pop-up storm" environment that we're used to seeing in the afternoons this time of year. Temperatures underneath this ridge of high pressure should be in the lower to middle 90's in West Tenneessee and middle 90's until Wednesday in Kentuckiana. A front dropping south on Thursday will trigger higher rain chances in both Kentuckiana and West Tenneessee and there could be some slightly cooler temperatures behind the front for Kentuckiana. Things look to remain hot all week long in West Tennessee!
I'm in Jackson, TN right now getting ready for the 10 O'Clock news on WBBJ this evening before going back to Louisville tomorrow. Check out my Hokey Weather Fact from last night's show on the left and be sure to tune in to WBBJ tonight at 10 for a new one!
Tomorrow is the beginning of the Forecastle Festival at Waterfront Park in Louisville. Unfortunately rainfall could be an issue as a stationary boundary begins to move northward from North Mississippi overnight. This boundary will bring even more moisture into the area and a source of lift, the boundary itself, which should bring in some ongoing showers and storms tomorrow morning. The short-range models right now are suggesting that there may be a break in the action after 2pm, which you'll see in the NAM simulated radar image on the right. Disagreement among the models exists over whether the storms will re-fire and make an impact in the area later on in the afternoon. My thoughts on this are that storms may have trouble getting going again in the late afternoon since the morning's activity will be hanging around well into the early afternoon, but that the presence of the frontal boundary will compensate quite a bit for this. Expect then for storms to possibly re-fire and move into the area sometime after 5pm. The good news here for festival goers is that I don't think storm coverage will be quite as high during this second round, so there's a good chance the Waterfront may be able to dodge storms if they remain scattered.
Daily storm chances will continue on Saturday and Sunday as the moisture from the current system sticks around and a bit of upper-level support kicks in thanks to a trough passing through the Great Lakes region. These storm chances will be a bit lower than tomorrow's though because there won't be much of anything to trigger them, like a front, aside from daytime heating in the afternoon. Long story short, bring a rain jacket or poncho if you're going downtown for Forecastle this weekend. Temperatures will top out near 80 tomorrow as the clouds and rain move through, but it will warm into the mid 80's for the weekend in Louisville.
Speaking of this weekend, I'm going to be a busy guy! On Saturday I'm heading down to Jackson, Tennessee to do the Saturday and Sunday evening shifts of weather at WBBJ-TV. This means you'll see me on the 6pm and 10pm newscasts this weekend if you're in the viewing area. It's been almost three months since I've done weather on TV, but I'm very excited to be getting back into it this coming weekend and again on Saturday night next weekend. Be sure to tune in!
Today marks my last show at WBBJ until August when I come back from my college summer break. And boy what a fitting show it was. Of course the weather is going to be hot and muggy through next week with pretty consistent small daily storm chances (each day except Wednesday). A pesky frontal boundary sticking around the region for a few days before eventually lifting northward will be the culprit for these pop-up showers and storms. You can check out the video from this morning's weathercast below. The big show today was an interview by Myles Savage, the lead singer from the Platters, this morning on our show. He gave a fun and spirited performance that none of us in the studio will ever forget! The video of his interview is below my weathercast. Enjoy!
Just ONE WEEK until my first three weeks of storm chasing begins in the Plains!
It took a little longer than expected, but the clouds did clear this afternoon in West Tennessee after rain overnight. Sadly, temperatures didn't make it into the 60's in Jackson as expected thanks to the longer duration of cloud cover during the day, so it was a chilly one out there. Slowly warming temperatures and mostly sunny skies will prevail though most of next week and the next rain chance for the region will be on Thursday. Pretty simple forecast! Thanks to all the folks who came out to the West Tennessee Earth Day Celebration at Pringles Park in Jackson this afternoon. Even though it was a little cooler than most would have wanted, the turnout was great! I was there today presenting my "cloud in a bottle" demonstration, which is a little experiment that involves exactly what the title describes it as. Glad to have met so many great people! Check out more on your West Tennessee forecast in the video below.
It's a nice weekend across West Tennessee with warmer temperatures and breezy conditions. Another day of 80-degree weather is on the way for Sunday, but storms will roll through the region on Sunday night into Monday morning. Some of these storms could be a little strong, but they shouldn't be terribly severe, if at all, since they will be weakening as they approach the Mississippi River. Rain chances should subside completely after Tuesday and sunshine with highs in the 70's will be with us through the middle portion of the workweek. Check out my video from this morning below for more details!
A potent severe weather outbreak is just getting started in the Plains right now. Areas from Nebraska to Oklahoma are under a rare High Risk of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center and violent tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening. Already we've had quite a few reports of tornadoes touching down and doing damage in Kansas this afternoon, and more of the same can be expected as this system pulls more moisture northward and destabilization continues. On the left you'll see the latest EHI chart from the SPC, which is a measure of helicity (spinning motion in the atmosphere) and instability. This is a decent indicator of where the strongest tornadoes could form. It's really ramping up with values as high as 7 in Oklahoma right now, but those values are expected to increase and possibly move northward this afternoon and evening into Kansas and Nebraska.
Be sure and join me again on WBBJ for 7 Eyewitness News at 6 and 10pm tonight!
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will be with us in West Tennessee and North Mississippi for Easter Sunday tomorrow with temperatures in the lower to middle 70's. Some like it hot and some like it cold, but I think most like it like this! The clouds we'll see tomorrow will be generated by a cold front that will move through early in the morning, but I think rain chances are zero for tomorrow at this point because there is very little moisture in the air. Another one of these dry cold fronts will move through on Monday, but this time it will bring a batch of cooler air that should bring temperatures down into the 60's for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. Get a full look at your forecast in my video below from this morning:
Storms are already popping up in Tennessee as a weak disturbance aloft is allowing the warm, moist air that we have at the surface to rise. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for a good deal of West Tennessee until 9pm CDT tonight and the main risks from these storms should they become severe will be large hail and wind. With temperatures aloft being so cold the storms should be able to produce hail easily today. Might want to think about putting your car in a garage or carport if you have one.
Instability is already building across the region as you'll see on the right image. Storms have not really broken out across West Tennessee yet because a weak warm layer aloft known as the "cap" is prohibiting air from rising. Once we get a degree or so warmer that cap should erode and storms will form. This will not be a tornado day because wind shear is very, very weak.
Check out my forecast from this morning on WBBJ below:
Be sure and catch me on 7 Eyewitness News again this evening at 6 and 10 o'clock!
A few showers have moved through West Tennessee this morning and we're still holding on to a chance for a few more mixed with some thunderstorms developing this afternoon. There could be a strong storm or two, but it shouldn't be a big deal. Once the big upper-level low generating the showers and this afternoon's storm chance moves on through we'll be seeing clearing skies and temperatures in the mid 70's by tomorrow. The early part of your workweek looks sunny as high pressure builds in once again and we should see highs go 80+ once again by Tuesday. The middle and end of the week are somewhat in question right now, but it seems as though another slow-moving system may generate at least a few showers and storms during that time frame. Check out one of my weathercasts from this morning's Good Morning West Tennessee broadcast on WBBJ for more details:
West Tennessee was spared from the bulk of the severe weather yesterday. As the cold front pushed through last night much cooler air filtered into the region and we'll see more seasonable weather for the next few days. It will also be quiet compared to the last couple of weeks, so be sure to enjoy these few days of sunshine! Check out your latest forecast from this morning's edition of Good Morning West Tennessee Saturday on WBBJ below:
After a cold front moved through Thursday giving us cooler temperatures for the last few days we'll finally begin warming things back up again in West Tennessee as high pressure begins to channel warm, southerly winds back into the region. Jackson should get above 60 tomorrow with sunny skies while Monday could be even warmer in the mid 60's with a few clouds. We'll get enough of this warm, moist air in the region to begin turning our attention to the threat of strong storms on Tuesday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has already put West Tennessee and North Mississippi in a risk area for severe weather on Tuesday on their extended outlook (right).
It's not entirely clear how this will play out right now, but the latest data suggests a threat for damage from straight-line winds. The worst severe weather will likely be in Mississippi where moisture will be more plentiful. My main concern at this point is where winds near the surface will be during this event. A secondary disturbance (called a prefrontal trough - see left) could be not only a trigger for storm development, but it may very well turn winds across West Tennessee and North Mississippi out of the southeast. This would increase low-level directional wind shear and hence increase the chance for tornadic activity on Tuesday evening. Again, it's still too far out to make an accurate assessment on this so we'll be watching throughout the remainder of the weekend and into next week. There may be a shot of severe weather as we head into Friday as well, so the pattern will certainly return to an active state after this nice weekend. Check out my forecast from this morning at WBBJ below:
After a round of showers and storms this morning, a cold front is now moving across the Mississippi River into the state. The cold air and clouds with the storms this morning stabilized the atmosphere considerably, so storms will not re-fire this afternoon as previously forecast. This also means that our marginal risk for severe weather today is done. Instead a few areas of drizzle may pop up as the front moves through by this evening. After a few showers tomorrow, calm and mostly clear conditions should prevail for the rest of next week. Check out my forecast from this morning on WBBJ below:
This morning I walked into the studio and our weather center was completely gutted! WBBJ is starting to disassemble it to make room for our new set, which will include a shiny new weather center once completed. For now our weather operations are running from a temporary location just off-camera, which you can see in the panoramic photo I shot this morning:
It doesn't get much better than this. After a bit of chilly weather today with highs in the 40's we'll be seeing the triumphant return of 50's and 60's next week across West Tennessee. This rather warm stretch of weather with sunny skies will extend all the way through to Tuesday. A few showers and storms could make their way into the region by Wednesday and Thursday, but other than that the rest of the week should remain rain-free for the most part. There are indications that some colder, more winter-like weather could arrive after next weekend, but we'll cross that bridge when we get closer to time. Check out your full forecast from this morning's edition of Good Morning West Tennessee on WBBJ below:
On Thursday a few thundershowers rolled through Mississippi State University as a cold front made its way across the region. Since skies had cleared out from the day's previous storms, the coupling of the sunset and the thundershowers with clear air around them made for some nice photos. A "silver lining" of one of these thundershowers is posted on the right and a panoramic view of the MSU campus from the 4th floor of my building as the showers rolled through is below:
A line of strong storms moved through West Tennessee this morning, but what's on the way for tomorrow evening could be even more potent with the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes. Check out my broadcast from this morning below to see what all this means and then continue on below the video for a detailed severe weather breakdown:
Timing and Threats
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk with a 30% hatched area for tomorrow's severe weather event from Mississippi to Indiana. The main time frame for these storms to roll through West Tennessee and Mississippi will be from 5pm tomorrow to 3am Monday. This does not mean ten straight hours of storms in any one location, but rather a ten hour window where storms will be affecting the region. Wind damage and hail will be the most common threats, but this could also be a significant tornado event. Some individual supercells or cell clusters may form ahead of a main QLCS (squall line) of storms late tomorrow afternoon and evening. These front-running storms, should they form, would be the ones with the highest tornado risk, but both the line of storms and the individual cells could produce a significant tornado or two. The SPC's wording on their Slight Risk outlook is fairly strong:
AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
Setup
The setup for tomorrow's severe weather event is fairly classic. A large trough will be moving through the region providing increased wind speed aloft, which increases instability and provides wind shear. This trough will also be negatively tilted, meaning the axis or tightest gradient of the trough will be leaning from southeast to northwest as you see in the graphic to the right from the 0z NAM model. This negative tilting further increases wind shear because the upper level winds take on a more southerly component rather than a southwesterly one.
Not only will we have wind shear between the surface and aloft, but also the surface and the low levels of the atmosphere too. This low-level shear is essential for tornadoes to form and for storms to overcome low levels of instability. The NAM output has quite a bit of low-level shear from Mississippi all the way to Kentucky, so that's a pretty good indication that rotating storms and tornadoes will be possible during the duration of this event tomorrow.
The amount of moisture that will be surging up from the Gulf of Mexico while the region is in the warm sector of this system is going to be tremendous. The current dewpoint in Starkville, Mississippi is 41 degrees, but by tomorrow evening we'll be in the 60's. That is certainly enough moisture to supply the atmosphere with the needed instability for severe weather.
When you put together these factors plus the idea that we may have CAPE (instability) values over 1000 J/kg, you get a fairly decent tornado risk. The Significant Tornado Parameter exceeds 2 on the 21z SREF model at 9pm and midnight (1/23) tomorrow and has been fairly consistent on the last few runs of the SREF. This is not "off the charts" or anything like that, but it's enough to raise eyebrows. As stated above, both individual cells and the main QLCS line of storms could produce strong tornadoes. The QLCS will be especially difficult because there could be embedded supercell structures within it that produce tornadoes like an individual supercell would. I still think the highest tornado risk will be in Northeast Mississippi (Starkville, West Point, Columbus, Tupelo, Corinth, etc.), but the latest indications like the STP above are pointing toward that threat leaking over into southern portions West Tennessee as well.
I'll be updating my Twitter, Facebook, and Google+ accounts all day tomorrow as these storms roll through, so be sure to follow or friend me for the latest information.
The Wind Advisory that was in place for southwestern portions of Tennessee today was canceled at noon because wind speeds across the region were falling just below the 25 mph necessary. Nevertheless it was quite breezy and today's high in Jackson got up to 54 degrees, well above what was expected. Some clouds from the Alberta Clipper system (explained below) did make it into the region and I even managed to find some mammatus clouds, which are pictured on the right, in Henderson County, TN this morning. You usually find these underneath a springtime thunderstorm, but in this instance I think they may have been caused by snow hitting the layer of dry air in place underneath the clouds. Aside from the oddities of today's weather, the new week looks warm until Tuesday when showers and storms will give way to another cold snap and again another gradual warm up. Check out my forecast on WBBJ this morning (my first one in 2012!) below for more details:
What is an Alberta Clipper? Put simply it's a fast-moving area of low pressure that dives southward from the area near Alberta, Canada in the wintertime and spreads light snow to the Midwestern states. This particular Clipper was an interesting one because it centered its maximum snowfall in a very small area as the storm moved through Kentucky and Tennessee. More specifically, this area was just south of Louisville from Harrison County, Indiana to just south of Lexington, KY. Accumulations vary widely in Louisville because of the scattered nature of the snow bands that moved through, but they seem to range between a half inch to around two inches. South of town there are reports of more than three inches around Bardstown and Taylorsville! NWS Louisville's forecast graphic from earlier this evening points out pretty well where the most snow has fallen and you can tell exactly where the heavy snow band sat this afternoon. I drove through this band near Radcliff, KY on my way from Jackson, TN to Louisville and I can verify that it was indeed very heavy as indicated on the map. I took a quick video of today's snow at my house in Southeast Louisville just as I got home for my long weekend:
A few brief showers scraped across northern portions of West Tennessee this morning as expected. The disturbance causing those morning showers has left behind some cloud cover across the region with peeks of sun here and there. More of the incredibly warm weather that we've seen for the past few days arrives tomorrow just in time for the Jackson Christmas Parade at 6:45pm. 75 still looks like a good bet for a high temperature during the afternoon as we start the workweek on Monday.
Much of the area is experiencing moderate drought conditions right now. Even though the growing season is pretty much over it is still important for rainfall to keep up so that we don't have an already-in-place drought come spring. The good news here is that we have a chance for a good soaking rain on Tuesday with over a half inch possible in most places. The front causing this rain will leave behind only slightly cooler temperatures in the 60's, which is still warmer than average for this time of year. The next round of rain on Friday and Saturday is the one to watch as it could bring much, much cooler weather to the area next weekend behind it.
