2/19 - 11:30pm - Strong Storms in Mississippi Later This Week

After a nice warm day in Starkville we're gearing up for a cooler, cloudier day tomorrow before storms set in on Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather on Thursday for areas southwest of Starkville. We're right on the fringe of it. Since moisture return and instability look rather limited, the potential in the Golden Triangle for severe weather will be fairly marginal and centered around gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. It's certainly something to watch though. Rain should clear out for the weekend and leave us with a warm and partly cloudy stretch of weather. Check out the video below for all the details!

1/23 - 7:15pm - Rainy End to the Week, Nice Weekend!

Tonight's low clouds aren't showing up well
on infrared satellite imagery.

After an evening of cool temperatures and a few clouds we'll be seeing a few rain showers setting in for the morning hours across the Golden Triangle and North Mississippi. These showers will be in advance of our next system that will bring us appreciable rain on Friday. But, how about the weekend? After this system moves out we'll have slightly cooler temperatures but at least the sunshine will be out in full force on Saturday. Temperatures will warm a bit for Sunday before we see more rain just in time for the new work week. Your full forecast is available in the CampusConnect video below!

1/20 - 2:45pm - Bitter Cold Air is Arriving Soon!

Temperatures in the 30's were common last night in West Tennessee and North Mississippi but temperatures are poised to drop much further than that tonight. A dry and relatively marginal cold front is moving through West Tennessee right now and that cold front is the first of two cold shots for the region. This will put lows down into the mid 20's in West Tennessee and lower to mid 30's in North Mississippi as cold air pours in behind the front. This cold air won't allow temperatures to rise much during the day tomorrow either, with highs in the upper 30's closer to Jackson, TN and closer to 50 down toward the Golden Triangle in Mississippi.

During the day tomorrow the second of two shots of cold air will pour in as another cold front passes by. This one will bring the über cold weather that we'll see on Monday night and Tuesday morning. The winds behind this front will be out of the north, meaning the source region (AKA where the air is coming from) for the cold air we'll see during this time will be in the Upper Midwest where they'll be below zero. While that kind of cold isn't expected, mid to upper teens will be common in West Tennessee with readings closer to 20 or 25 degrees down toward North Mississippi. A low of 16 or 17 degrees in Jackson, TN on Tuesday morning looks pretty reasonable given the intensity of the cold air spilling down. While our neighbors to the north may scoff at this being branded as "bitterly cold" in the South, this is still some incredibly cold air. Pets will certainly need to be inside during this time and people need to be bundled up as much as possible. Limit your time outside on Tuesday morning, if possible, and be sure to cover any exposed skin if you do have to be out. Temperatures during the day on Tuesday will warm to a more reasonable lower 30's in West Tennessee and lower 40's in North Mississippi.

Temperatures will moderate during the week thanks to the return of wind flow from the south. This return flow means more moisture in the air across the region. You might guess that this warmer air and more moisture will eventually lead to rain chances... and you'd be right! A low pressure system and associated upper-level shortwave disturbance will track through near the end of the week, bringing rain chances. There's some disagreement between various models over whether this will start on Thursday or Friday. The GFS model's timeline on this is posted below. My guess at this point is that the timeline you see below will be delayed by about 12 hours, so expect rain chances to creep into the region ahead of this low on Thursday afternoon and continue through the night into Friday.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that a little bit of wintry precipitation may fall on the backside of this system on Friday. If cold air flows in behind a cold front associated with this system fast enough then some of the last few rain showers could mix with or change over to a brief period of snow. The GFS identifies Kentuckiana as being the prime target for this but we all know that model has been trending too warm lately in all the winter weather events we've dealt with. So in my mind, West Tennessee is in a potential area for this mix or snow switchover to occur. We're too early for specifics on this so the forecast will have to be fine-tuned during the week. Stay warm!

1/10 - 8:30pm - Tape Time

Happy New Year! I just got finished editing together my first professional weather resume tape. Well, it's not really a tape but that's what it's still called in the industry since tapes are a relic of the not-too-distant past. It's hard to believe that I've been doing weather on TV now for nearly two-and-a-half years. Time flies when you're having fun!

6/25 - 10:30am MDT - Great Faces. Great Places.

Today's blog post title is the South Dakota's state slogan. As you can probably gather by that, we're in South Dakota today! Southwesterly flow aloft at 500 mb (18,000 feet) will be present in the western half of South Dakota, northwest Nebraska, and Eastern Wyoming today as the general pattern we dealt with yesterday continues. While the winds aren't terribly strong, the RAP model is beginning to pick up on an area of enhanced speeds near 30-40 knots around parts of Western South Dakota and Northwestern Nebraska. If this enhanced area verifies there could be some better storms under it.

At the surface right now there are southeasterly winds across this area, but the more easterly of the wind vectors are favoring Western South Dakota right now. We'll see how this develops throughout the day as surface conditions continue to change. We'll want these more easterly wind vectors becuase they'll contribute to low-level wind shear that could possibly lead to rotating storms, should they form.

I say "should they form" because we're still dealing with some very warm temperatures aloft. These warm temperatures aloft, called "the cap", inhibit storm development because rising air parcels can't continue to rise buoyantly if the environmental air around them is warmer than they are. The good news here is that temperatures at the surface today will again be in the 90's to near or above 100 degrees. This will really heat up these surface air parcels so that they might shoot through the cap. All models I've looked at this morning have the cap breaking at some point in the early to mid afternoon, but where exactly this happens is still in question. The 14z RAP model has an interesting hole in the cap at around 4pm near Rapid City, but our current thinking is that the Black Hills near Rapid City will be a focus for storm development because they are a constant source of lift and thus a typical location for storm initiation.

To get some of the heating we'll need for storms to form today, we need to have a plentiful supply of sunshine. Right now we do have a layer of clouds over South Dakota that is inhibiting this right now, but western parts of the state are clearing out and it should hopefully leave us with blue skies later this morning. Storms should form sometime after 3pm this afternoon should things come together as forecast. The main threats will be wind and hail from any storm that forms, but we'll be on the lookout for some rotation in these storms as well. The Storm Prediction Center has a general thunderstorm risk for our target area today, but also mentions a 5% severe wind and hail risk.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates this afternoon!

5/25 - 11:50am CDT - A Grand Finale

Ever since earlier this week we've had our eye on today's setup in Central Kansas. The moisture return, a low developing over Southwest Kansas, and upper-level wind support all kept us coming back to look at the models to see how it was shaping up. For a while it looked like the cap, or a layer of instability-inhibiting warm air aloft, was going to surpress storm formation but now we're seeing a situation where there will be just enough break in the cap to allow for a few isolated supercell storms to form. To get surface heating today to break that cap we need to clear out the clouds across Kansas first. A push of dry air at around 10,000 feet is currently moving from Southwest Kansas to the northeast and is eating these clouds for breakfast as you see in the satellite image to the right. We expect this to keep moving throughout the day and hopefully it will clear out the clouds in time to get some serious surface heating going.

The big story here today is the moisture return. For the first time this week we are seeing a situation where dew points will surge into the mid to upper 60's. Yes! This much-needed moisture will be the fuel for storms this afternoon and should give us a much better show than the moisture-deprived low-precipitation storms we've been seeing lately. While we don't have this moisture in the area quite yet, it's streaming in like crazy right now. Strong easterly and southeasterly winds are blowing this moisture into Kansas from Missouri and Oklahoma and will continue doing so throughout the day. Having mostly easterly winds in Kansas right now is a very good thing because this is creating just about optimal low-level shear for rotating supercell storms.

Speaking of wind shear, this will create quite a bit of helicity, or a corkscrew-like rotation of air in the atmosphere. When you combine helicity with instability in an equation you get the Energy Helicity Index (EHI). As I've said before I think that indicies and parameters can be distracting since human analysis is always better than a formula, but EHI seems to be fairly reliable since it is so basic and relies on two very basic ingredients. This afternoon's EHI values in Kansas will be the highest we've seen out here this season according to the Rapid Refresh model. That's some great news for storm chasers because higher EHI values typically correlate with enhanced tornado potential.

The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe storms today from Iowa to the Texas Panhandle and within that a 5% tornado risk in Kansas. This is quite the change from the previously non-severe "general thunderstorm" outlooks that they had been issuing for today because of the concern that strong capping may inhibit storm development. Today is our last chase day out here for Tour 3 and my last day out here until I come back for a week in June. If we could see some good storms today that'd be a great end to the first part of my trip! Tonight once we're finished chasing we'll be traveling back to Oklahoma City where I'll fly back to Louisville from tomorrow morning.

Follow up-to-the-minute reports on our chase on my Twitter and Facebook accounts!

5/20 - 11:45am CDT - Texas Panhandle Today

We're on the road from Oklahoma City to the Panhandle region of Texas where storms are likely to form today. Right now we're watching a clear area on satellite near a cold front situated just south of a line from Childress to Lubbock, TX. This clearing should help to build instability for storms to form as heating from the sun is allowed to reach the surface. Winds and dew points at the moment are not terribly favorable, but the most recent RAP (Rapid Refresh) model does have surface winds turning more easterly during the afternoon bringing in more moisture.

Even though winds at the surface will likely be favorable, winds aloft at 18,000 feet (500 mb) will be weak and westerly to west-northwesterly. It would be preferrable to have winds at that level that are fast and from the southwest, so not having much of either of those components will be a limiting factor. Storms that form this afternoon could have some large hail and winds, but the tornado threat at the moment looks marginal given the lack of upper wind support and possibly lower dew points.

Given these factors, the Storm Prediction Center has decided to forgo issuing a severe weather risk for the area today and only has a general storm risk with mention of some isolated instances of severe storms. The trick today will be to find these isolated instances wherever the best environment for these sets up this afternoon.

The latest updates on our chase are available on Twitter and Facebook.

5/18 - 2:45pm CDT - Regarding Next Week's Chase

As we make our way back to Oklahoma City on our last day of this week's storm chasing tour, I'm looking over quite a bit of data for next week's severe weather potential. After a lengthy period of high pressure ridging across the Plains (A.K.A. no storms) we're finally seeing signs that a large-scale trough will begin to move onshore from the Pacific and begin to affect the Plains during the middle part of the week. A smaller trough will be coming through this weekend as well but not a lot of moisture and our inability to chase during its peak on Saturday due to our down day in Oklahoma City means it will not be discussed here.

This trough coming in next week will need some moisture to work with for severe weather to form. This is something we've had a problem with for a while now but it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will finally be "open for business" starting next week. As the trough begins creating southwesterly winds and diffluence aloft in Kansas extending into Northwest Oklahoma on Wednesday (5/23), southerly winds at the surface should begin to bring in some much-needed moisture. The degree to which this will happen is still very much up in the air at this point because the GFS model has been consistently overshooting actual dew points, meaning it's been too optimistic about moisture return. The European model does agree that moisture will begin flowing into the Plains on Wednesday, but to a lesser degree than the GFS on the right.

This setup will continue right into Thursday and Friday as the trough digs in and moisture continues to flow into the region. These two days may harbor better severe weather chances than Wednesday due to having more time for moisture to return. Given the possibility that small-scale weather phenomena like cloud shields and overnight storms could limit potential on any of these days it's very difficult to point out which of them will be the best for storm chasing. Not only that, but the aforementioned computer model issues and amount of time between now and the trough moving into the Plains creates an even bigger margin of error. It's safe to say right now that things are certainly looking more favorable synoptically (on a large scale) for severe storms, but calling for a tornado "outbreak" at this point wouldn't be logical due to the variability of all the smaller features involved. This setup certainly has our attention and we're keeping close watch! Our robotic streaming webcam has been sitting dormant since we haven't had any storms lately, but we're hoping that we can put it in action next week.

Follow my storm chasing updates on Twitter and Facebook!

5/16 - 10:45am CDT - To Colorado We Go!

After spending quite a bit of time in Texas over the past few days we are on our way north to Colorado this morning. We're going to try to chase some storms that may form in the upslope flow of the Front Range of the Rockies. Here's how these form: Moist air flows from east to west up the gentle slope of the mountains during the afternoon. This moist air when lifted by the terrain condenses because it's moving into cooler air aloft. As more air rises up this gentle east-west slope, it continues to condense to form clouds and eventually thunderstorms. Since the mountains act as a constant source of lift, these storms can be pretty reliable as long as other ingredients are in place.

Here's the issue for today though... Moisture is going to be hard to come by today because the last major system to roll through the Plains last week pushed all the moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico. A little bit of it will be returning to the region today though and we can already see that happening on the current surface map. Dew points right now are in the 30's with a couple 40 degree plus readings across the eastern part of Colorado where these storms will form. In a perfect world you'd want easterly winds to be blowing in better moisture and to create better low-level shear, but this morning we're dealing with southeasterly winds. The good part is that it doesn't take as much moisture to generate these storms as it does in lower elevations. Generally you want dew points to be above 40 degrees in this region, and that's something we may struggle to get today if the computer models are correct.

Putting all of this together with some weak southwest winds at 500 mb (18,000 ft) there is a chance for some storms in Eastern Colorado today. With potentially weak moisture return the setup for anything severe looks very "iffy" at this point and the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Eastern Colorado under only a general thunderstorm risk because of this. We'll keep an eye on the surface observations this morning and afternoon to determine whether moisture will return as needed.

Last night I had a good internet connection at our hotel and was able to upload some video. Check out my footage of our encounter with golf ball size hail and flash flooding east of Lajitas, Texas on Monday:




Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates on our chase today!

3/27 - Ryan's Top Weather Apps

Lately I've been fielding questions from quite a few people who want to know what weather apps I use on my smartphone and tablet. With the ever-growing number of mobile devices there is similar growth in the weather app market and it's difficult to keep up with all the new apps. The apps listed below are ones that I use on my mobile devices as a student of meteorology, a broadcaster, and a storm chaser. Some of these apps are great for everyone while others are more suited to die-hard weather geeks and professionals. I'd like to point out that I use an iPhone and an iPad, but I've indicated which of the iOS apps that I use are available for Android too. I've not listed prices for these apps, except for the free ones, since they are subject to change.

RadarScope - (iPhone/iPad and Android)

Radarscope is by far the most feature-packed weather radar viewing app for mobile devices at the moment. I've been using this app since it was released in 2008 and have been impressed with the subsequent updates that have been applied since. This app is so powerful because it allows you to view radar products like base reflectivity, base velocity, VIL, echo tops, and now even dual-pol products like differential reflectivity and correlation coefficient. If you don't know what any of that means and just want a simple radar app to show you where you are in relation to the storms around you, this is still an app for you. It even displays weather warning polygons, which is essential because you're able to easily see which storms are severe near your location or anywhere else in the US. If you're a die-hard weather geek or storm chaser, this app also accepts packaged weather data plans from AllisonHouse for expanded capabilities. There's even a Mac version of this app that many use in place of the famous GRLevelx suite of radar apps for Windows that cannot run on a Mac.


MyWarn - (iPhone, Android coming soon)

MyWarn is a newcomer to my phone since it just came out earlier this month. Efforts to turn your smartphone in to the equivalent of a NOAA Weather Radio have been made with other apps before, but this app does it differently and simply. MyWarn's one and only function is to alert you when severe weather watches and warnings are issued for your current location, much like a real weather radio. The interface is very clean and there are quite a few settings in the app that allow you to customize which alerts you want to receive. Something I really like about this app that I've not seen in others is that it will alert you when the Storm Prediction Center issues a severe weather risk for your area, which gives the user a lengthy heads-up that severe storms may be an issue later in the day. The alerts are shown in graphical form once you open up the app so that you can see where exactly where you are inside the watch or warning area. The app's simplicity is what caught my attention because users generally don't want to fiddle with complicated setup wizards and a daunting number of customizations. MyWarn is available as a one-time purchase right now, but it will become an annual subscription service for users who purchase after May 31st, 2012.


Weather Underground - (Free - iPhone/iPad [WunderMap] and Android)

Weather Underground has an impressive app because it leverages a few key features that other general weather apps don't have. Besides displaying a computer-generated for your location and a weather radar, which just about every other major weather app does, Weather Underground's app displays weather observations from their network of over 24,000 personal weather stations around the world. This means that you can get more precise current observations for your location because chances are one of these neighborhood weather stations are closer to you than the official observations. The app also displays live weather webcams from users who have opted to put those online along with their current weather data. Finally, and most impressively for weather geeks, is the ability to listen to live streaming audio from NOAA weather radio stations across the country on the smartphone edition of the app. These audio streams are crowd-sourced much like the observations and webcams, so your mileage may vary with availability of these streams for your area.


Soundings Mobile - (iPhone/iPad)

Soundings Mobile is an app that I've only found recently and is mainly aimed at die-hard weather enthusiasts, meteorologists, and storm chasers. This app allows for viewing of both observed and forecast atmospheric soundings at any location where the National Weather Service sends up daily weather balloons. This app displays Skew-Ts and hodographs and even shows a box of stats like CAPE, CIN, LCL, etc that you would find at the bottom of most sounding output pages online. The intriguing thing about this app is that the soundings displayed are not images ripped from the SPC or another online source but rather rendered on the device from the raw data. This means that you can zoom in on and manipulate the sounding without distorting the quality of what you're looking at. This app is great on the iPad but performs well on the iPhone too with an interface adapted for the smaller screen size.


WeatherGeek Pro - (iPhone/iPad and Android)

WeatherGeek Pro is for, well, weather geeks! It is a fairly simple forecast model viewing app that displays model output from the GFS, NAM, SREF, WRF, and RUC models directly from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. As an added "bonus", you can view MOS output for any location within the app. This is a great app if you need to keep up with the latest model runs without the added frustration of navigating NCEP's website on a small screen. This is not an app I'd recommend unless you have some experience with weather models and forecasting.

These are five apps that I use frequently, but this doesn't mean that there aren't other good ones out there. Leave a comment on this post with your favorite weather apps!

(Disclaimer: I did not receive compensation for or was asked to post this list of apps. These apps are merely ones that I use and enjoy personally and I receive no financial incentive for mentioning them on this blog.)