3/5 - 11:55pm - Warmer Weather Ahead in East Mississippi!

This morning's cold front brought rain and wind to the Golden Triangle but we've now cleared that out of here as the front is well to our east. Temperatures for tomorrow will be cooler than they were today by about ten degrees but a warming trend will take us well into the 70's by the weekend. How about that... we've gone from snow flurries to warm temperatures in the 70's within the space of a week! Check out my latest CampusConnect Forecast video below for all the details.

6/19 - 3:15pm - The Last Day of Spring

Tomorrow marks the first day of summer as the summer solstice occurs at 7:09pm EDT. The summer solstice put simply is the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere because the north pole is tilted toward the sun. The sun will be directly overhead at 23.5 degrees north latitude or the Tropic of Cancer, located on a line that runs between Cuba and Florida. Meteorological summer, the three month period that meteorologists consider summertime in weather terms, started on June 1st with hurricane season.

I'll tell you that it's been pretty warm in Europe over the last couple of weeks. My family and I enjoyed a very nice trip around the Mediterranean Sea and traveled to Italy, Croatia, Turkey, Monaco, and Spain. I'm still a little jet-lagged from the marathon flight between Barcelona and Philadelphia we were on Sunday, but I'm slowly acclimating to Eastern Time again. Crazily enough, a tornado touched down in Venice, Italy last week well after we had left port on our ship. Thankfully there were no injuries, but some damage was done in a place that rarely sees tornadoes. Read more about what happened here.

The heat we had in Europe followed me home to Louisville (not meteorologically of course) and now we're experiencing quite a heat wave. High temperatures are expected to be at or above 90 degrees for most of the week here, but we may get a small break on Thursday night/Friday morning thanks to a cold front approaching the area. This thing may run out of steam just as it's nearing the Ohio River late on Thursday so rainfall chances could be slim with this.

If it continues to chug along further south than expcted we could have some storms around during this timeframe. Areas in Western Kentucky and Northwest Tennessee do need the rain, but unfortunately this won't be enough (if it happens at all) to assuage much of the drought in that region. The US Drought Monitor from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln has portions of this area under a moderate to severe drought. 

In just four days I'll be heading to Denver to join Storm Chasing Adventure Tours for one more week of storm chasing this year. It's been a whirlwind of a summer break for me so far with three weeks of storm chasing and two weeks of travel in Europe under my belt, but I'm definitely excited for another week of chasing! It looks like storms may fire up early to mid next week in the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Wyoming as an upper-level disturbance inches onshore from the Pacific. It's a bit far out for specifics at this point, but I think moisture and upper-level support during this time might be decent if this disturbance comes onshore in time. The limiting factor may be capping (warm air) aloft since temperatures may be a little high up there. It'll be interesting to see how this develops over the course of the week!

Be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook so that you'll be ready to receive my instant storm chasing updates next week!

 

3/24 - 3:30pm - Another Very Warm Week Ahead

A few showers have moved through West Tennessee this morning and we're still holding on to a chance for a few more mixed with some thunderstorms developing this afternoon. There could be a strong storm or two, but it shouldn't be a big deal. Once the big upper-level low generating the showers and this afternoon's storm chance moves on through we'll be seeing clearing skies and temperatures in the mid 70's by tomorrow. The early part of your workweek looks sunny as high pressure builds in once again and we should see highs go 80+ once again by Tuesday. The middle and end of the week are somewhat in question right now, but it seems as though another slow-moving system may generate at least a few showers and storms during that time frame. Check out one of my weathercasts from this morning's Good Morning West Tennessee broadcast on WBBJ for more details:

3/22 - 4:30pm - Heavy Rain is Gone, but Warm Temps Remain!

Heavy Rain

Did you get drenched? I think we all did. The rain over the past 24 hours has been tremendous, especially across Mississippi as inches and inches have fallen from the pesky system that has been slowly churning through the Plains and now the South. Check out the estimated rainfall map from today below to see what I mean (the totals for West Tennessee are underdone but you get the picture of who saw some tremendous rainfall earlier today!) Most of the rain is now east of West Tennessee and North Mississippi, but a few showers remain and will continue this evening.

More rain will fall tomorrow afternoon as another piece of energy from the same system rotates around the Mid-South. The area in red with the directional arrow coming from it is called a vorticity max. Usually the area where rain and storms develop is east of the vort max as it moves along. Tomorrow's rain won't be as heavy as today's by any stretch of the imagination and it will be more of a scattered nature than today's washout. Once this rain is all said and done by Saturday morning we should be left with a very nice weekend and temperatures warming back up through the upper 70's across West Tennessee and North Mississippi.

The Big Picture

Let's zoom out more and look at the system that's been causing all of this rain as a whole. What we have is an upper-level low in the Plains that is slowly moving eastward. An upper-level low like this one is basically a ball of cold-air that gets cut off from its northerly source because the jet stream kicks north leaves whatever is in the base of the former trough behind. It moves slowly because the jet stream, which usually drives big weather features, is absent from the process after the low gets cut-off. The satellite and radar images coming in from area where the low is are striking... you can see very well the rotation of the low pressure center, which makes it look like a land-based hurricane.

The jet stream being way up north is also why it's been so warm lately. In the winter the jet stream usually dips down from Canada and brings cold air to the USA. Areas north of the jet stream remain cold due to the influence of an arctic air mass while to the south of it there is usually a warm, moist air mass. This winter and now into this spring the jet stream has not really come down from Canada to the eastern half of the nation. The West has had it come down a few times though, which meant snow and cold temperatures for the Pacific Northwest and even down through California. The reason the jet stream stayed so far north is that La Nina (colder than usual ocean temperatures off the coast of Peru) remained pretty consistent throughout the season. In an El Nino pattern, the jet stream comes down to the US with a vengeance.

Record Warmth

The above-average temperatures from this pattern will persist for quite a while it looks like. A cursory glance at some of the long-range models shows that the jet stream will remain somewhere close to this northerly position for the foreseeable future. With that said, comparing this year and month to years past is incredible. This March so far has been the warmest on record in Jackson, TN and Tupelo, MS and the second warmest in Memphis. Jackson is running 10.6 degrees above average for this March. Comparing the year so far to years past, this is the warmest year so far in Memphis and Tupelo, and the second warmest so far in Jackson. These are remarkable numbers and we'll likely see more of these records flash by as the warmth continues. A running list of how this year's heat compares to previous records is available from NWS Memphis.

3/14 - 11:55pm EDT - Record-Breaking Warmth

The warm weather we've been seeing across the region hit record-breaking levels this afternoon. Here is a list of some broken temperature records today:

Jackson, TN: High 84° | Previous Record 80°

Memphis, TN: High 82° | Previous Record 80°

Chattanooga, TN: High 83° | Previous Record 81°

Louisville, KY: High 82° | Previous Record 80°

Paducah, KY: High 82° | Previous Record 78°
Evansville, IN: High 82° | Previous Record 77°

Indianapolis, IN: High 81° | Previous Record 79°

Many other cities in came close to breaking records, especially in Alabama and Middle Tennessee. The ridge over the Eastern US that's funneling all the remarkably unseasonable temperatures into the area will stay put through the weekend, but a few shortwave disturbances aloft will bring storm chances to much of West Tennessee, North Mississippi, and even into Central Kentucky tomorrow and Friday. These storms will be more organized than the spotty ones that developed in eastern portions of West Tennessee and even up through Western Kentucky this afternoon. The crazy-warm temperatures are going to last at least another full week as this strong ridge stays put, so I think to say that spring (or even summer) has sprung before winter officially ended!

3/22 - 5pm - What Month is it Again?

Is it really the end of March? Feels like the middle of May out there this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 80's and low humidity. Unfortunately we have to leave some of that nice weather behind temporarily tomorrow as a cold front swings through the South bringing with it a small chance for rain during the afternoon and evening hours here in Starkville. Things should clear out for Thursday and most of Friday, but warm Gulf air from the south and an approaching cold front will trigger a round of strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday into Sunday. We'll see how that all pans out!

Speaking of severe weather, I just posted a countdown timer for my annual storm chasing trip to the right of this blog. Only 45 days until I leave for Amarillo, TX! Check out the video below your complete Mississippi State University forecast:

3/1 - 5pm - Nice Week in Store for North Mississippi

Things are warming up across the region this week as we recover from the passage of a cold front yesterday. Clear skies and temperatures near 70 will be the rule as we head throughout Wednesday and Thursday, but rain chances will begin to pick up by Friday as another cold front sets its sights on the eastern half of the nation. Some strong storms are possible on Saturday with temperatures cooling down into the 50's by Sunday afternoon. Check out the video below for your complete forecast:

3/28 - 2pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast

The swings in temperature last week forced many here in Starkville to switch from shorts to blue jeans and back to shorts again. Luckily, temperatures should be more stable this week with less rain and sunny skies! I'm thinking that we could reach 80 degrees here on Friday, which is a welcome summer preview. Our next appreciable chance for rain will happen as a system comes through near end of next weekend.


A friend of mine found this fortune in her fortune cookie at lunch yesterday:

The funny thing is that it was 70 and sunny yesterday, so the fortune was right!

3/19 - 10:15am - First Day of Spring is Tomorrow!

It's been an enjoyable spring break back home in Louisville and the weather up here is just gorgeous! With fairly strong high pressure in place, I could see it easily getting to 70 degrees or higher today around here.

The next big system to impact the eastern half of the nation is making its way through the Plains as we speak. Winter Storm Watches have been issued from Oklahoma to Missouri and some places could pick up nearly a foot of snow. Below is the highlighted risk for four or more inches of snow tomorrow:

All this talk of snow and the first day of spring is tomorrow? In a period of El Nino (warm sea temperatures just west of South America) like the one we've been experiencing this winter, coupled with a very negative Arctic Oscillation as we've seen, it's quite typical for winter storms to track further south and it seems that El Nino will stick around for the spring as it ever so slowly weakens.

What effect will El Nino have on the spring severe weather season you ask? Based on historical El Nino data, the spring after a fairly strong El Nino winter features more tornadoes and severe weather. This year will be similar to 1995, 1998, 2003, and 2007. We all remember 2007... when a deadly EF5 tornado destroyed Greensburg, Kansas. This is not to say that we're guaranteed to see another EF5 this year, but the potential is higher than last year for sure.

With spring in the air and El Nino sticking around, it's almost time for my annual storm chasing trip in the Great Plains! I'll be out there from May 8th to June 5th and I'm sure it's going to be a great month out there. I'll have blog posts, HD video clips, Twitter/Facebook updates, a live video stream from stormchasertv.com and more as we continue on our quest to find severe weather.

3/27 - 4pm - Severe Storms Tomorrow

No blog updates until Monday 4/6/09.
No video or 7 day forecast updates until 4/11/09.
Have a happy and safe Spring Break 2009!

Since I won't be around to do a video forecast tomorrow, here's an updated 7 day forecast for next week:



The newest SPC severe weather outlook has upgraded much of Georgia to a 45% risk for storms tomorrow:



Areas 15% or higher are in a SLIGHT Risk for severe storms, and that 45% area will likely be a MODERATE Risk tomorrow morning. At any rate, a tornado outbreak is possible in the 45% area tomorrow as a shortwave with strong shear and decent instability comes through. I think we'll see some severe weather with a few tornadoes around the region tomorrow afternoon, but the main outbreak should be suppressed to the south. If by chance instability increases more than expected tomorrow with increased sunlight, we'll see more severe weather.

Right now, rain is coming up from the south and should be in Louisville within the hour. This will continue for a few hours this evening, but we should clear out completely by the early morning hours of tomorrow, if not before. This break will last until around 2-3pm, when clusters of severe storms start rolling through. Be sure to keep your weather radios on alert mode tomorrow afternoon and evening as this system comes through.

Evacuations are underway in North Dakota after the Red River broke a record level this morning. Sandbagging has been well underway for the last few days and residents are hoping the river does not go much higher. To read more, click here.

3/20 - 11:45pm - Spring is Here! (700th Blog Post)

Sorry for the late post everyone, I had a laundry list of things I had to wrap up today.

Spring officially started today at 7:44am, and with temperatures in the 50's it didn't come in with much fanfare. Tomorrow will reach 60 for a high, with 70's on the way for Tuesday and possibly even Wednesday. Rain chances look slim for the weekend, but should go up for Tuesday and Wednesday with an approaching cold front. The good news is that this front will only send us back into the 60's, much less of a drop when compared to this week's cold front that came through.

Cooler weather looks to be holding off for at least another full week, and the strength of the cold air seems to be weakening on the latest GFS model runs. In any case, I think days with highs in the 40's in the coming weeks are numbered.

3/19 - 8:30pm - Last Day of Winter

Today was the official last day of winter, meaning spring starts tomorrow at 7:44am. This is when the sun will be pointed directly at the equator (an equinox), and will pass into the Northern Hemisphere after that time.

Today wasn't too bad considering we had a cold front go through last night, but it will cool down a little more for tomorrow. Frost is possible around the area tonight as we head into the middle 30's tonight, with highs just above 50 tomorrow. Warming starts this weekend with highs in the lower 60's, rising to near or above 70 by Tuesday. Storms will come through on Wednesday, and depending on their arrival time could be strong or severe. That'll be something to watch for next week.

Cooler weather could be on the way after next week if the GFS trends are correct.

3/12 - 9pm - Not Much Snow

A Winter Weather ADVISORY has been issued for counties to our south. As temperatures cool below freezing tonight, all the rain down there right now will turn to snow and sleet:



Up to an inch of snow and sleet could accumulate down that way, but I think we'll see a few snow showers locally. There shouldn't be more than a dusting of snow by tomorrow morning, if even that.

If you're ready for spring-like weather, I can't really promise that in the short-term. I can at least say that temperatures are on the way up! Tomorrow will top out in the upper 40's and it looks about the same for Saturday, but a bit of rain is possible. Sunday will see highs in the middle 50's with some sprinkles or showers.

60's are on the way for early next week, with a possible shot at 70 by Wednesday according to some of the latest model runs. Cooler temperatures will settle in again for late next week as a cold front comes through on Thursday. That's some March Madness right there!

3/1 - 12pm - Meteorological Spring!

Welcome to the first day of Meteorological Spring! March 1st marks the beginning of what we call spring in meteorology, which runs through March, April, and May. Astronomical Spring starts on March 20th, when the Vernal equinox occurs and the sun crosses the equator.

It may be the first day of spring in a meteorological sense, but it sure didn't feel like it. We had a dusting of snow last night in town, causing many accidents on the interstates when temperatures dropped below freezing and existing water and snow froze to the roadways. We got pretty lucky considering how much snow fell in the south yesterday:



You can see on the map that areas just north of Memphis got pounded with over a foot of snow. Memphis itself received a wide range of snow totals, from around 3 to 11 inches. Other parts of the south are still getting snow, especially areas around Atlanta right now.

Temperatures will soar into the 60's later this week and rain chances look slim to none at this point. As far as the rest of this month goes, I don't think we're done with the snow. The long range GFS is pointing at a roller-coaster pattern with plenty of precipitation to go around. I really don't know if we'll get another big storm or not, but this is the time of year when surprises happen... like last March:



Take a look at the new blog banner if you haven't noticed it... there are also a few minor layout changes I made as well.

5/13 - 7:30pm - A Rainy End to the Week

Thunderstorms start tonight and go all the way, nearly non-stop rain, until Friday. A daily chance (30%-40%) of rain will be in effect from Saturday to Wednesday. By next Wednesday a large storm system chuck full of rain will roll through. What a mess!

Something we're lucky not to have is severe weather, which is going on in TX and OK right now. The SPC hasn't issued any severe weather outlooks for us and the GFS looks benign, so we're just going to see rain and lightning with these thunderstorms tomorrow through Friday.

It looks like this weekend's forecast update will be the last for a while until at least the middle of June due to storm chasing and my vacation plans.

Only 11 days left!

3/10 - 7pm - Quiet... For Now.

We're settling into a calmer and warmer pattern across the area, almost a 180 degree turn from last week. We'll see highs soar into the 60's this week as warmer air filters in.

There is one thing we need to remember... The spring thunderstorm season is lurking.

We might see another severe weather outbreak exactly a week from now, next Monday. The GFS is showing a heavy parcel of moisture in here with temperatures in the 60's. The thing that gets my attention is the brief drop in temperature behind it, a possible indicator of severe activity. This is just a guess at this point, but I'll bet the SPC will have something to say about it pretty soon.

Otherwise we have a chance of storms this Thursday and Friday, which will not be severe. Here comes Spring!

3/9 - 1PM - Oh yeah...

The temperature is 68 degrees at my house now. For the first time in 2007, I went outside without a jacket! The weather is more like spring today than spring itself. I'll go through some numbers and such from today and more forecasting for later this next week when I post tonight.