3/14 - 11:55pm EDT - Record-Breaking Warmth

The warm weather we've been seeing across the region hit record-breaking levels this afternoon. Here is a list of some broken temperature records today:

Jackson, TN: High 84° | Previous Record 80°

Memphis, TN: High 82° | Previous Record 80°

Chattanooga, TN: High 83° | Previous Record 81°

Louisville, KY: High 82° | Previous Record 80°

Paducah, KY: High 82° | Previous Record 78°
Evansville, IN: High 82° | Previous Record 77°

Indianapolis, IN: High 81° | Previous Record 79°

Many other cities in came close to breaking records, especially in Alabama and Middle Tennessee. The ridge over the Eastern US that's funneling all the remarkably unseasonable temperatures into the area will stay put through the weekend, but a few shortwave disturbances aloft will bring storm chances to much of West Tennessee, North Mississippi, and even into Central Kentucky tomorrow and Friday. These storms will be more organized than the spotty ones that developed in eastern portions of West Tennessee and even up through Western Kentucky this afternoon. The crazy-warm temperatures are going to last at least another full week as this strong ridge stays put, so I think to say that spring (or even summer) has sprung before winter officially ended!

7/21 - 2pm - Enough Excessive Heat to Go Around

93° in Louisville is hot on its own, but when you couple that with a very high 77° dew point (which puts relative humidity at 60%), you're talking about a heat index of 107°. We're well on our way to a high near 97° this afternoon. It's just hot. An Excessive Heat Warning, on left shaded in purple, remains in effect for the entire Louisville area until Saturday night as heat index values soar past 110° during the maximum heating of the day. Regardless of where you're from and the weather you're used to, your body cannot sustain itself in the hot, humid air we have in Louisville and much of the Midwest right now. Be sure to drink plenty of water and limit your activity outside this week to avoid heat-related illness.

Heat Index?

NC State Climate Office

I've been mentioning the term heat index for weeks now, so what exactly is the heat index you ask? Most people know it as the "feels like" temperature or what it feels like because of the humidity. That's basically it in a nutshell, but there's more to it. Mathematically, the heat index is a product of an equation that uses temperature and relative humidity. Factors like perspiration and body size averages are held constant, so the heat index is an educated guess at the "temperature" that most people are feeling. Don't let the "educated guess" usage fool you though, because higher humidity and in turn heat index values lessen the amount of evaporational cooling on your skin. If your body can't cool properly through this evaporation, you can overheat quite easily. It's interesting and useful to note that heat index values are based on what it feels like in the shade. Being in the sun can increase the heat index by up to 15°. Below is a table from NWS Pueblo, CO with heat index values and associated heat disorders:

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With the heat we'll have a chance for afternoon scattered storms, which will increase significantly as we get closer to the passage of a cold front on Monday. Today's storms have been and should be staying south of Louisville, so we'll see no relief from the heat today!

7/5 - 6pm - Scattered Storms in Louisville

Hope everyone had a great Independence Day! Some scattered small thundershowers have popped up across the Louisville Metro area this afternoon with the heating of the day. These will likely stay well below severe limits, but watch out for some heavy rain and a few lightning strikes as they move very slowly through the city.


More storms like this are possible tomorrow afternoon through Friday with severe weather chances remaining very low. We should be completely dry this weekend in Louisville as a surface front slides to our south and an upper-level ridge slides in from the west.

6/29 - 11am - Quiet Weather is Back!

After what seemed like an endless parade of storms and severe weather across Kentucky, Indiana, and Tennessee, calmer weather is in place and we'll enjoy the fruits of that for most of this week. High pressure centered just east of the Cincinnati area will provide nearly cloudless skies and a rain-free forecast until the weekend. Sounds more like the summertime forecast you were looking for, doesn't it?

We'll also see a break from the humidity, with dew points staying between 45-60 degrees until Saturday. A dew point of 60 is considered to be uncomfortable humidity-wise, so things should stay just below that threshold. Dew points and storm chances, more of the summer-like pop-up variety instead of the spring severe outbreak, will be increasing this weekend and into next week. July 4th looks hot with temperatures in the lower 90's and a slight thunderstorm chance in the afternoon throughout much of the region.

6/21 - 12pm - First Day of Summer, Rounds of Severe Weather

A few storms are moving northeastward through Kentucky and Tennessee right now. While not severe, these storms are moving through a very unstable environment (you can see the 2500 J/kg CAPE values on the right) and could reform or strengthen as the afternoon wears on. There's a Slight Risk for severe weather today across Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, and more because these strengthening storms could produce wind damage and hail later on today.

Today at 1:16pm EDT summer will officially begin. This marks the summer solstice, or the day when the sun shines at its northernmost point on the earth due to the planet's tilt. Appropriately, today will feature summer-like highs across the Southeast. Here are some of the highs this afternoon for selected cities:

Louisville: 90  Lexington: 89

Cincinnati: 88  Jackson, TN: 90

Nashville: 88  Memphis: 93 

Knoxville: 93  Atlanta: 93

Birmingham: 93  Jackson, MS: 90

The heat will be breaking soon though because a cold front it scheduled to move through Kentucky and Tennessee late on Thursday. Above and behind this front is a upper-level low and trough that will trigger widespread severe storms across the Southeast on Wednesday. These storms could be supercells, which carry a tornado risk (not that big I think), and/or clusters with hail and high wind. The fast upper-level winds with the trough coupled with pretty high instability across the Lower Ohio Valley will provide a healthy environment for these storms, so be on the lookout tomorrow if you're in the Slight Risk area below:

8/11 - 11:45pm - One Hot Summer...

We have had 57 days in the 90's or higher so far this summer in Louisville and there could be many more ahead as this brutally hot weather continues. It's going to get even hotter this week as the current ridging pattern stays in place, with temperatures expected to creep closer to 100 through Saturday. A Heat Advisory is in place through Friday, but I think a couple more Excessive Heat Warnings could be issued for us over the next few days. Like today, showers and thunderstorms could develop in the intense heat and spare some communities from the excessive temperatures over the next few days. As a cold front approaches the area by the end of the weekend, we'll see a better chance for rain and temperatures dipping (relatively speaking) into the lower 90's.

It's that time of year again. Like many college students, I'm heading off to school for the semester and that means not only a change of scenery for me, but a change of content on this blog for you readers out there. I'll be leaving Louisville for Mississippi State University on Sunday and I'm very excited to be getting back into the swing of things. This summer has felt extremely long for me and there's a good reason for that... Mississippi State has a three and a half month summer break, which is over a month more than the summer breaks I've had back home in Louisville. That extra month allowed me to witness eight tornadoes in the Plains this year while storm chasing. Needless to say, Mississippi State is a storm chaser-friendly university with that kind of semester schedule. As far as the content change on the blog goes, you'll be seeing Mississippi State-centric weather updates with a wealth of other weather news from around the nation. Hurricane season is still in full swing and I'll be covering that as well. As the semester gets underway I may throw a few surprises in the mix as well, so be sure to check back for new blog posts!

6/20 - 5:30pm - Summer Starts Tomorrow, but it's Already HOT!

After a nice week on the Gulf Coast in Florida, I'm back home in Louisville. There were no sightings of tar balls or oil between Destin and Panama City while I was there, but both were creeping closer to shore according to reports. That area is just too beautiful to be spoiled by such an environmental catastrophe. Let's hope the spill doesn't go as far as forecast and that the right solutions are found to clean up the mess that many in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana are already dealing with.

It's 91 in Southeast Louisville right now, but when you add on the 72 degree dew point, it feels like 100 out there. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 6pm this evening, but I'm sure we'll see quite a few of those issued this week. Our average high temperature in Louisville for this time of year is 84 degrees, so we are definitely quite a bit above average. With high pressure and southerly winds in place, that heat will stick around for quite a while. I'd like to point out that summer starts tomorrow and we've already had quite a few days in the 90's already. Looks like we could be in for a scorcher of a summer!

Severe weather is cranking up across Kansas right now and Nebraska is in line for some later this evening. Parameters like instability, surface winds, and EHI are looking ripe for supercells with tornadoes possible. The SPC has issued a 10% risk for tornadoes and a Moderate Risk for severe weather across the Northern Plains, so the storm reports could be quite interesting as they come in this evening.

3/28 - 2pm - MSU 7-Day Forecast

The swings in temperature last week forced many here in Starkville to switch from shorts to blue jeans and back to shorts again. Luckily, temperatures should be more stable this week with less rain and sunny skies! I'm thinking that we could reach 80 degrees here on Friday, which is a welcome summer preview. Our next appreciable chance for rain will happen as a system comes through near end of next weekend.


A friend of mine found this fortune in her fortune cookie at lunch yesterday:

The funny thing is that it was 70 and sunny yesterday, so the fortune was right!