Saturday, February 25, 2012

2/25 - 5pm - Simple Weekend Forecast, Then Things Get Complicated

After a cold front moved through Thursday giving us cooler temperatures for the last few days we'll finally begin warming things back up again in West Tennessee as high pressure begins to channel warm, southerly winds back into the region. Jackson should get above 60 tomorrow with sunny skies while Monday could be even warmer in the mid 60's with a few clouds. We'll get enough of this warm, moist air in the region to begin turning our attention to the threat of strong storms on Tuesday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has already put West Tennessee and North Mississippi in a risk area for severe weather on Tuesday on their extended outlook (right).

It's not entirely clear how this will play out right now, but the latest data suggests a threat for damage from straight-line winds. The worst severe weather will likely be in Mississippi where moisture will be more plentiful. My main concern at this point is where winds near the surface will be during this event. A secondary disturbance (called a prefrontal trough - see left) could be not only a trigger for storm development, but it may very well turn winds across West Tennessee and North Mississippi out of the southeast. This would increase low-level directional wind shear and hence increase the chance for tornadic activity on Tuesday evening. Again, it's still too far out to make an accurate assessment on this so we'll be watching throughout the remainder of the weekend and into next week. There may be a shot of severe weather as we head into Friday as well, so the pattern will certainly return to an active state after this nice weekend. Check out my forecast from this morning at WBBJ below:

No comments: