1/29 - 5:45pm - Serious Severe Weather Concerns Tonight

Latest Severe Weather Updates

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A severe weather setup that we see normally in the springtime is about to unfold on this late January night across a large expanse of the Southeast. While not "unprecedented" or "once-in-a-lifetime", this outbreak is going to impact quite a few people and it's important that everyone have what they need to be prepared and safe. This post is mainly for folks in North Mississippi and West Tennessee, but you can figure out pretty well how you'll be affected if you're not in these areas by some of the maps and information below. Everyone needs to be aware of what's going on because this will be happening at a very bad time of night when even the night owls are asleep.

Fast Facts

A MODERATE Risk of severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the overnight hours in West Tennessee and most of North Mississippi. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are all on the table for these areas as storms move through. Even though places like the Golden Triangle in Mississippi are just outside of the Moderate Risk area I would treat this as if you were in it because these storms are going to be very, very strong still as they move through this region. Please, please, please have a weather radio or smartphone app that's armed and ready to alert you if a Tornado Warning is issued for your location tonight. This will be hitting when most people are asleep so it's a very dangerous situation.

Timing - North MS and West TN

8pm - Midnight - Small chance for some isolated storms. These would carry a tornado, wind, and hail threat.

Midnight - 2am - Slightly better chance for isolated storms, small line of storms may try to form ahead of main line.

2am - 7am - Main line of severe thunderstorms moves through. This will affect everyone. Tornadoes, severe damaging winds, and hail are a good bet during this time.

Discussion

A line of storms stretches from the Great Lakes to Texas right now and will continue to move eastward through the evening. A few reports of severe weather have come in already from this but the main show will be overnight as this line of storms encounters a more rich environment for severe weather.

The main storm mode for tonight will be a squall line of storms with embedded rotation in portions of it (AKA what's termed a QLCS). Supercell storms will be possible ahead of the main line of storms too and could easily produce tornadoes if they develop. Tornadoes in QLCS lines of storms like the one we'll have tonight are more difficult to identify on radar since they're embedded within the line. While not as strong as supercell tornadoes, QLCS tornadoes can be strong and cause massive damage in the right environment.

While directional shear, which is needed to produce tornadoes, isn't very good for this event, the speed shear or tendency for winds to increase in speed with height will be very good. But, the directional shear may just be enough to cause problems. When you combine helicity (caused by shear) with instability in a formula you get what's called the Energy Helicity Index (EHI). This, in my mind, is a good determinant of tornado ingredients in an environment. The NAM model has increased levels of the EHI throughout West Tennessee and Mississippi tonight as this squall line is moving through so these QLCS tornadoes may have some kick to them if they develop. Not good news at all.


Also, since winds at 850 mb (about 5,000 feet) will be howling it will not take much for any part of this line of storms to pull these winds down to the surface and create straight-line wind damage. I wouldn't be surprised if folks affected by the worst of these winds thought they were hit by a tornado. I'm hearing the word Derecho being thrown around a bit with regard to how this system will develop tonight. That's certainly a possibility with this system but I think it's a relatively small chance.

One more thing to mention, and this is not the least important at all, is the fact that moisture and warm air continues to stream in from the south in advance of this system. When the dry line that's triggering these storms hits this richer air tonight you'll know. The whole line of storms should really begin to light up by then. Having air this warm and moist in January is never a good thing because Mother Nature intends to correct it in a violent way.

Follow me on Twitter and my Facebook page for the latest updates tonight!

8/27 - 9:30pm - Update on Isaac's Expected Gulf Coast Landfall

Tropical Storm Isaac is teetering on the edge of becoming a hurricane this evening with winds of 70 mph as of this writing. The threshold for a Category 1 hurricane is 74 mph. The storm motion has slowed down over the past few hours, now moving northwest at only 10 mph. Issac continues to run into issues that prevent it from rapid intensification, which is certainly good news. The latest issue is a batch of dry air that is currently being pulled into the center of the storm. Without an uninhibited source of moist air the storm cannot form a defined eye or intensify very well. The dry air is why Isaac is lopsided right now with most of the intense winds on the south side.

How long will it be until this dry air is finished working through the storm? Probably a few more hours, possibly lasting into the early morning hours tomorrow if current model forecasts are correct. Speaking of models, the current track from the National Hurricane Center takes Isaac right into the Eastern Louisiana/Mississippi Coast areas late tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning as a weak Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. With the lack of organization we're seeing right now it may only be a Category 1 at landfall. The latest computer model tracks, the spaghetti plots as you've probably heard about and seen over the past few days, have tightened up on a landfall location somewhere around New Orleans. It's worth noting that some of these models are now trending eastward after a massive amount of successive westward jogs in recent days. It doesn't appear that this landfall will take place further east than Biloxi, Mississippi given the current motion of the storm and model data, but the exact landfall location won't be the big story with this storm.

Storm surge exceedance probabilities

The big story here is how big and how slow this storm is. Sure, there will be some wind damage along the coast as the storm makes landfall, but the large area that Isaac covers means that quite an expansive area along the Gulf Coast will experience other effects from it. Storm surge at or above ten feet is possible in locations from New Orleans to Pascagoula, MS and rainfall amounts over a foot are forecast over much of Central and Southern Mississippi and Eastern Louisiana. Isaac will slow down even more than its current speed once it gets over land so heavy rain will be a good bet across much of the Gulf Coast states until we get into the weekend. Inland flooding will be a problem with the deluge that Isaac with unleash on the region as it crawls northward.

Rainfall through 7pm CDT Saturday

As far as local effects in North Mississippi and West Tennessee, Isaac will bring very heavy rain and winds with gusts in some cases near 40 mph. Starkville, MS may be looking at a six or more inch rainfall scenario through Saturday evening and areas in West Tennessee like Jackson will likely see more than three inches of rain. This highly depends on Isaac's exact track so some areas will see much more rain than others.

With just about any landfalling hurricane you can expect the threat of isolated tornadoes, and Isaac will be no different. The turning of winds with height in a hurricane or tropical storm create favorable wind shear for tornadoes to form in stronger parts of it. Due to this potential threat, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for most of Mississippi and parts of Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida.


So overall we're not looking at Isaac to be a major hurricane at landfall, but the effects from it will be widespread due to it's large size. It's a good thing that folks in a wide area are preparing for this storm since it could be a long haul given the slow motion that's expected from it.

8/9 - 2:15pm - Severe Storm Threat Tonight

Small storms are popping up around the Louisville area after a fairly calm night that featured a few storms in Southern Indiana. The same trough of low pressure over the eastern half of the nation that's generating today's storm activity will see a potent burst of energy round the base of it late this evening into tomorrow morning. This piece of energy, which is really a small trough within the main trough over the east right now, is called a shortwave trough. This shortwave will have some fast winds aloft as it treks through Kentuckiana late this evening and that will along with a cold front moving through early tomorrow morning will trigger a threat of severe storms.

While scattered storms will be possible for most of today, the best timing for severe storms in Kentuckiana looks to be from 10pm to 4am. The main threats from the storms that go severe will be damaging winds and hail but any of these storms can have heavy rain and lightning. Since these storms will be hitting during the overnight period they won't have the punch that they could've had during the daytime. The tornado threat looks very low right now but as with any line of storms moving through there's a possibility that a kink in the line could form a small spin-up. A Slight Risk of severe weather has been issued for this evening through early tomorrow morning for the entirety of Kentuckiana. The good news with all of this is that much cooler air will be filtering in behind the cold front for Friday and the weekend!

8/4 - 2:30pm - Waking Up to Storms Tomorrow

Scattered storms are firing between Evansville and Louisville right now and are slowly trekking eastward. These aren't expected to become severe but some downpours and lightning are certainly a possibility in Louisville as they continue to develop. The chance for storms in the area should remain with us in Kentuckiana through the early evening.

More storms forming in Illinois and Missouri will be our next focus as they move into Kentuckiana during the early morning hours tomorrow. Some of these could be strong to severe since a trough moving through to our north will be bringing faster winds aloft to the area. This means that damaging winds will be the primary threat from these storms should they hold together for us during the early morning. The 6z NAM model run (right) was pretty bullish on these morning storms but the 12z that just came in was more subdued with their intensity. In either case it looks likely that a lot of folks will wake up to storms early tomorrow morning.

Storms could fire up during the afternoon tomorrow if the morning's storms clear out in time for instability to recover during the afternoon. Another limiting factor for this will be the cold front that will be moving through during the day tomorrow. Storms will fire along and in front of that boundary so its speed will determine who gets storms during the afternoon. Right now it looks like Louisville and areas to the south and east will be in the zone for storms tomorrow afternoon and it's worth noting that their coverage won't be anywhere near this afternoon's and tomorrow morning's storms. Both Kentuckiana and West Tennessee are under a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon as these storms fire up in the heating of the day with the cold front in play. Strong winds will again be the main threat here.

After the front moves through on Sunday temperatures will be in the upper 80's to near 90 for the start of the workweek in Kentuckiana and storm chances will be nonexistent until Thursday.

7/26 - 1:55pm - Kentuckiana Severe Weather Update

Kentuckiana is right on the edge of what could be a significant severe weather outbreak this evening. Nothing demonstrates this better than the Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather outlook, which puts us in a Slight Risk but has a 30% severe wind risk running right through the center of Louisville. The reason for this is that faster winds aloft are most prevalent to our north and east so more of a risk area (a Moderate Risk) is needed up there. These winds have the potential to power a large line or cluster of wind-driven storms that could possibly become a derecho just to our north if it sustains itself long enough.

A Severe Thunderstorm WATCH has gone up for areas northeast of Louisville but not including the city. This was needed because severe storms are already affecting areas near Cleveland right now and more will be forming in the near term across Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. I suspect a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued for the Louisville area at some point this evening since storms will come through a little later than areas to our north.

Storm timing in Kentuckiana should be after 5pm this evening. The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh model has storms rolling through the Louisville Metro area at around 7pm but this may vary a bit because this will be highly dependant on where storms fire along outflow boundaries and other surface features. The HRRR suggests that these will be either a broken or continuous line of storms which makes sense given that winds both aloft and near the surface will be from a westerly direction. This also means this could be a wind-driven line of storms so wind damage potential is relatively high here if storms get severe enough. Large hail will be a threat from any of the strongest storms. There may be more than one round of storms this evening in the area through 2 or 3 am since the cold front will not be passing through until that time. This might be a good time to secure your trash cans or any loose articles you have outside your house so that they don't end up in your neighbor's yard...

7/7 - 10:30pm - Massive Heat Wave Ends with Storms

Today capped off the longest, hottest stretch of weather in Louisville that most people can remember. Today's 106° high at Louisville International Airport was the hottest it's been since July 14th, 1936 when it got to 107°. That temperature is Louisville's all-time record high and if we didn't have as many clouds as we did this afternoon in the city we would have met or broken it. This ends nine days of 100°+ weather, which is the third-longest stretch of triple digits ever recorded according to NWS Louisville.

Storms that will develop tomorrow will be ushering in cooler temperatures, which is welcome news! The bad part is that some of these storms may be severe due to the incredible amount of energy they'll have at their disposal from all the heat. Temperatures in the mid 90's tomorrow with sunshine and high humidity will power an awful lot of instability, or the tendency for air parcels to rise and create thunderstorms. A cold front sinking down from the north that will be stalling out once it passes just to our south will be the focus for storm chances starting tomorrow in the early afternoon in Louisville and lasting through Monday morning.

The main threats from these storms will be wind and hail, but there could also be a threat for some rotating storms too. While winds don't look favorable for any sort of big tornado problems tomorrow, a couple of these rotating storms may get just enough juice to put down a brief spin-up. EHI values in the adjacent image take into account both instability and helicity, which is a product of wind shear. The elevated values you see are powered mostly by instability and just a little bit of helicity, so again, winds aren't that favorable here. The Louisville area is no stranger to summertime tornadoes as you may remember a series of four of them that touched down in late June of last year.

Given the chances for some severe wind and hail tomorrow, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a 15% Slight Risk area for Kentucky. A better chance for severe weather (30%) exists closer to the East Coast where upper-level winds will be stronger as a trough digs down a bit into that area.

6/29 - 10:15am CDT - The Chase Ends...

Today we're heading back to Denver as Tour 8 with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours ends. Right now we're making the seven hour journey from Valentine, Nebraska where we stayed last night. We had a storm about an hour south of Valentine yesterday that showed some promise, but it fell apart as it moved east. Tomorrow is when everyone departs and that's my cue to get on my plane back home to Louisville. It's been a great week with just about every day being a day with an active chase.

This is not one of those chase days unfortunately. With our required drive back to Denver we don't have time to chase any storms that are more than a few miles away from our route. There is a Slight Risk for storms today in Northeastern Nebraska stretching into South Dakota, but that's just too far out of the way for us. We may have a few run-of-the-mill storms along our route back to Colorado, but that's about it. I'll have a post tomorrow detailing our mileage and route from this week.

5/25 - 11:50am CDT - A Grand Finale

Ever since earlier this week we've had our eye on today's setup in Central Kansas. The moisture return, a low developing over Southwest Kansas, and upper-level wind support all kept us coming back to look at the models to see how it was shaping up. For a while it looked like the cap, or a layer of instability-inhibiting warm air aloft, was going to surpress storm formation but now we're seeing a situation where there will be just enough break in the cap to allow for a few isolated supercell storms to form. To get surface heating today to break that cap we need to clear out the clouds across Kansas first. A push of dry air at around 10,000 feet is currently moving from Southwest Kansas to the northeast and is eating these clouds for breakfast as you see in the satellite image to the right. We expect this to keep moving throughout the day and hopefully it will clear out the clouds in time to get some serious surface heating going.

The big story here today is the moisture return. For the first time this week we are seeing a situation where dew points will surge into the mid to upper 60's. Yes! This much-needed moisture will be the fuel for storms this afternoon and should give us a much better show than the moisture-deprived low-precipitation storms we've been seeing lately. While we don't have this moisture in the area quite yet, it's streaming in like crazy right now. Strong easterly and southeasterly winds are blowing this moisture into Kansas from Missouri and Oklahoma and will continue doing so throughout the day. Having mostly easterly winds in Kansas right now is a very good thing because this is creating just about optimal low-level shear for rotating supercell storms.

Speaking of wind shear, this will create quite a bit of helicity, or a corkscrew-like rotation of air in the atmosphere. When you combine helicity with instability in an equation you get the Energy Helicity Index (EHI). As I've said before I think that indicies and parameters can be distracting since human analysis is always better than a formula, but EHI seems to be fairly reliable since it is so basic and relies on two very basic ingredients. This afternoon's EHI values in Kansas will be the highest we've seen out here this season according to the Rapid Refresh model. That's some great news for storm chasers because higher EHI values typically correlate with enhanced tornado potential.

The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe storms today from Iowa to the Texas Panhandle and within that a 5% tornado risk in Kansas. This is quite the change from the previously non-severe "general thunderstorm" outlooks that they had been issuing for today because of the concern that strong capping may inhibit storm development. Today is our last chase day out here for Tour 3 and my last day out here until I come back for a week in June. If we could see some good storms today that'd be a great end to the first part of my trip! Tonight once we're finished chasing we'll be traveling back to Oklahoma City where I'll fly back to Louisville from tomorrow morning.

Follow up-to-the-minute reports on our chase on my Twitter and Facebook accounts!

5/23 - 11:50am CDT - Nebraska or Colorado?

Today we're in the Cornhusker state of Nebraska in search of severe storms. Yesterday's chase in what ended up being extreme southern South Dakota was short-lived as storms that formed up that way south of Murdo, SD quickly dissipated due to a low amount of moisture and contamination of their inflow via a layer of clouds that formed to the south of them. The storm we chased had a nice structure for a few minutes and even put down a bit of a wall cloud before it fell apart.

A cold front situated across the center of Nebraska will be the focus for storms this afternoon. The band of clouds on the satellite image is roughly where the front is located right now and it will slowly sag south and east today. A low forming over Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas should help back the winds out of the east this afternoon here in portions of Nebraska and that will increase low-level wind shear needed for rotating storms as that happens. This low will also create easterly winds in Northeast Colorado, so that may be a secondary target area for today.

We're already seeing some easterly winds beginning to set up in Nebraska this morning and we'll be watching where those develop this afternoon as well. Dew points are still quite low this morning in the upper 50's, but more moisture should move in this afternoon and bump up dew points to around 60 or higher. This is still a bit low for good storms, but we'll probably be better off than we were yesterday in this regard. Dew points in Northeast Colorado won't have to be as high for good storms thanks to the elevation there.

The environment today is rather "capped" as we say, meaning there's a warm layer of air above the surface layer that's prohibiting storm development. As surface heating gets going later this afternoon and into this evening there should be enough energy for updrafts to break through this cap and form storms. This means that storms should be fairly isolated at least starting out, which is a good thing since isolated storms are more organized, more likely to produce a tornado, and easier to chase. Some of these isolated storms may become supercells, and that's exactly the thing we're after since they may produce a few tornadoes today. Storms may condense into one or more lines of storms later this evening as the cap quickly erodes after dark. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather today from Colorado to Minnesota and that includes a couple areas of 5% tornado risk. There's a chance we may bug out on our plans for Nebraska and move to the secondary area you see there in Northeast Colorado, so stay tuned.

Follow up-to-the-minute updates today on my Twitter and Facebook accounts!

5/22 - 9:45am MDT - Nebraska Here We Come!

Today's storm setup is tricky because we're dealing with, again, a situation where the moisture is not returning to the region as well as we need it to. The good news though is that the trough that is slowly making it's way eastward will finally be in play today, so upper-level wind support will be there for storms. Let's start with the moisture though. The higher dew points will be in the Dakotas today no doubt, but this is at the surface. With such a short time between being dry and having moisture moving into that region, this moist layer is likely very shallow and confined near the surface even though the short-range models this morning show it a little deeper than before (models have not been handling moisture well at all lately). This means that storms up that way would likely be low-precipitation supercells, maybe to the point where some of them are only putting down virga and not ground-falling rain. The better surface wind support near the low will also be in the Dakotas, but you won't get many, if any, tornadoes if the storms can't get any "meat" on them from the lack of moisture. Dew points in Northern Nebraska may be lower at surface, but we may have an overall deeper layer of moisture there.

The upper-level winds as I said before will be more favorable today than yesterday. The trough moving in will provide fast southwesterly winds in the Dakotas extending down to Northern Nebraska. This should bring in some drier air aloft and enhance wind shear for this afternoon's storms. Today we'll stay on the southern end of these winds aloft so that maybe we can get some deeper moisture coupled with the winds. Hopefully some supercell storms can form in this environment.

Because the models are having difficulties resolving moisture issues, today's CAPE (instability) forecast looks rather low in Nebraska with higher values north. This is something we'll be watching throughout the afternoon to see where it actually sets up. The potential lack of moisture and the best shear being removed from deep layer moisture will likely limit tornado potential today, but maybe we can see some high-based photogenic storms!

The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe storms today in the Dakotas extending toward Northern Nebraska. There's only a 2% tornado risk with this and I think this is a good call given the moisture issues here. If dew points were to be higher over a deeper layer in North Dakota I think you could have a pretty decent tornado risk from supercells given the forecast wind environment. In any case, our more southerly target today will put us in great position for tomorrow's chase, which will likely be in Nebraska.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates today!

5/20 - 11:45am CDT - Texas Panhandle Today

We're on the road from Oklahoma City to the Panhandle region of Texas where storms are likely to form today. Right now we're watching a clear area on satellite near a cold front situated just south of a line from Childress to Lubbock, TX. This clearing should help to build instability for storms to form as heating from the sun is allowed to reach the surface. Winds and dew points at the moment are not terribly favorable, but the most recent RAP (Rapid Refresh) model does have surface winds turning more easterly during the afternoon bringing in more moisture.

Even though winds at the surface will likely be favorable, winds aloft at 18,000 feet (500 mb) will be weak and westerly to west-northwesterly. It would be preferrable to have winds at that level that are fast and from the southwest, so not having much of either of those components will be a limiting factor. Storms that form this afternoon could have some large hail and winds, but the tornado threat at the moment looks marginal given the lack of upper wind support and possibly lower dew points.

Given these factors, the Storm Prediction Center has decided to forgo issuing a severe weather risk for the area today and only has a general storm risk with mention of some isolated instances of severe storms. The trick today will be to find these isolated instances wherever the best environment for these sets up this afternoon.

The latest updates on our chase are available on Twitter and Facebook.

5/14 - 12:45pm CDT - Pressing Further Southwest in Texas

Today we're continuing on southwestward in Texas where fast westerly and northwesterly winds aloft and moist, easterly winds at the surface will combine to create a potential for severe weather. These winds should create enough shear for supercells among some scattered storms and more specifically there is a chance for a couple tornadoes down this way. There are a few clouds on the visible satellite view right now from ongoing storms in the region, but areas closer to the Mexican border near Marfa and Fort Davis are pretty much cloud free. There is a field of cumulus clouds we're driving toward south of Marfa that may serve as a focus for development, so we'll see how that pans out. In any case we have lots of direct sunlight and instability already building for storms later this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather today across extreme southwest Texas where we're at and they've even included a 5% tornado risk area. This is the best setup we've had so far this week, so we remain hopeful that we'll see some great stuff today! There aren't many roads around the area so this will be a challenging chase day even though the ingredients appear to be coming together pretty well.




Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest today!

5/14 - 12:30am CDT - Great Lightning Tonight in West Texas!

We were treated to a great lightning show just north of Pecos, Texas earlier this evening as a few isolated storms merged together to create a fast-moving line of storms (MCS) that quickly caught up with us. These storms packed some very large hail and high winds at their peak, but luckily we were able to stay ahead of them during that time. The storm kicked up quite a bit of dust in the gust front, so it created low visibilities and an eerie scene in Pecos as it moved through. This comes after a day of fruitless chasing because storms that were expected to form near the Midland, Texas area did not due to a lack of required surface heating. More photos of this storm are available on my Flickr and Facebook albums.

Tomorrow we'll likely be chasing in West Texas again, but this time it may be closer to the Mexican border. Fast winds aloft, moisture at the surface, and winds blowing up the mountains in Mexico from the east should trigger some storms tomorrow afternoon after the ones tonight move through. The setup will be relatively similar to today, but hopefully we're able to get some more stronger isolated storms out of this. Here's some of the high points from the Storm Prediction Center's discussion on tomorrow with their Slight Risk area:

IN THESE AREAS...STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ANDVEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY AGAIN CONGEAL/ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING LINEAR CLUSTERS WITH A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT CONTINUING MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VICINITY.

Get the latest storm chasing updates on my Twitter and Facebook accounts!

5/13 - 10:15am CDT - Going West!

This week's storm chasing tour is starting out with a trip west from Oklahoma City. Fast westerly and north westerly winds aloft this afternoon over West Texas and Eastern New Mexico will provide support for potentially severe storms. While originally it looked like we would definitely be chasing in an area near and west of Fort Stockton, TX, the latest data coming in right now has actually increased the amont of moisture closer to Amarillo and Lubbock, TX. This moisture along with easterly winds rotating around a high pressure center near Wichita, KS could provide a secondary target area for us, which is good because we may not have to drive as far today! We're keeping an eye on the trends as we're traveling west on I-40 and right now we're leaning toward the more northern target near Amarillo and Lubbock because we think the models are underestimating the amount of moisture that will be allowed into that region this afternoon.

The satellite picture has been on our computer screens this morning too because it's revealing where storms may set up later on today. The previously more favorable target near Fort Stockton in far West Texas on I-10 looks a bit dismal at the moment because of the showers and clouds currently over that area. This may act to inhibit surface heating and the building of instability this afternoon for storm development. There are some storms in Eastern New Mexico, but those may actually help to moisten up the atmosphere closer to where you see the favorable clear slot in the clouds near Amarillo and Lubbock.

The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk area for severe weather over extreme West Texas and the eastern half of New Mexico for this afternoon. This outlook came out before the latest data showing the favorability in conditions near Amarillo and Lubbock did, so some northward changes may be made in the outlook that will come out at 11:30am CDT. Overall, the (small) tornado threat today highly depends on how much moisture we can get into the area so that cloud bases are low enough along with how much low-level shear sets up.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook today for live updates!