6/1 - 9:15am - Going off the Grid

Starting this morning I will be on vacation for the next couple of weeks. I will likely not have internet access during this time so my blog and social media accounts will remain inactive until June 17th. As soon as I get back I'll be gearing up for another week of storm chasing that starts on June 23rd.

Here are a couple of weather tidbits going on today:

This is officially the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season. You wouldn't know it though because there have already been two named tropical storms Alberto and Beryl. No storms are going on in the Atlantic at this time and the forecast is for that to remain the same for at least the next couple of days.

There is a Slight Risk for severe weather over the Mid-Atlantic states today. A 10% tornado risk is in place from North Carolina to Maryland and there could be isolated supercell structures out that way during this afternoon's storms. A few high-based supercells may form in the Texas Panhandle this afternoon as well... hopefully my friends at Storm Chasing Adventure Tours can chase a few of these!

5/21 - 11am CDT - A Bit of a Surprise This Morning!

Yesterday evening we saw a wonderful view of the annular solar eclipse just south of Lubbock, Texas. This was my first solar eclipse and even though clouds obscured our view of the maximum "ring of fire" portion of the eclipse, it was a spectacular sight. It was good that we had an eclipse because the storm threat that we were targeting in that area was never realized. A good convergence boundary formed and intensified quite a bit, but it seems the "cap" (warm layer of air aloft) was too strong to get any good storms going. There was one small storm that formed to our east, but it quickly dissipated since it was moving into cooler air.

This morning we're waking up to some very good news. Last night's model runs, particularly of the Rapid Refresh, were quite pessimistic about today's setup in Northeast New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle but early this morning things changed around considerably. The main difference here that I've noticed is the amount of moisture that will be available in this area. For example, the 4z run of the RAP model late last night had dew points near 50 degrees in Northeast New Mexico. The 13z run of the same run this morning has dew points from 60 to 65 degrees. That's a huge difference! Right now the dew points in the northeastern section of New Mexico are in the mid to upper 50's, so the newer runs of the RAP model with the increased moisture are looking good since higher dew points will move in this afternoon.

Having these higher dew points is so important because this moisture is pure thunderstorm fuel. Putting more moisture into the air near the surface increases instability because you have more latent heat contained in the  air as it rises. As such, the CAPE (instability) forecast on the RAP model has responded very positively to the model's higher "correction" in dew point this morning and we're looking at a situation where instability should be quite good at just under 3000 J/kg in most spots around Northeast New Mexico, parts of Southeast Colorado, and the western Texas Panhandle. This is pretty good!

Now that we've cleared moisture and instability for take-off on this event, let's go over what the winds will be doing. The change in the surface wind forecast between last night and this morning hasn't been as great as the change in dew point, but we're still seeing some differences. Winds today will mostly be out of the south-southeast or southeast in the region, with some places especially in Northeast New Mexico seeing a more easterly wind vector than what models were showing yesterday. Storms today will be forming in what we call upslope flow, so having more easterly winds blowing up the higher elevations in this region should create an ample source of lift. This should also increase wind shear a bit due to a contrast with the northwesterly winds aloft at 500 mb (18,000 ft) and create the potential for more organized, isolated storms. When you couple helicity, which is spinning in the atmosphere that takes wind shear to create, with the increased instability that we'll be seeing in a mathematical formula, you get an index called the Energy Helicity Index (EHI). I usually don't look at indexes and parameters too much since they get in the way of looking at the basics behind a storm setup, but EHI is one I do like because it's simple and gives you a decent idea where a tornado threat may set up since helicity and instability are so important. Values last night were slim to none on the models for EHI in our target region, but today with the increased moisture creating more instability we're seeing a marked upswing in forecast values to 2 or more in places.

Even though these values are higher than previously thought for today, we're still not looking at any sort of severe weather or tornado outbreak here. What we are seeing is increased potential for an isolated, organized chance for severe weather in this region that may carry a bit of a tornado threat with it. Right now we're monitoring current conditions across the area and picking out where storm formation may first occur. We drove through some storms this morning on our way from Lubbock to Amarillo as you see on radar there to the right, but those are clearing and the majority of the western Texas Panhandle and Northeast New Mexico is now clear from the rain. A pretty shallow cloud deck is hanging around in Northeast New Mexico at the moment, but there should be time to burn that off and create instability from the heating of the day this afternoon.

Taking all of these factors into account, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather in portions of New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, and even the extreme western Oklahoma Panhandle. The Slight Risk includes a 2% tornado risk due to the increased shear and instability that's expected this afternoon that could create some supercell storms. I'm not a big fan of the northwesterly winds aloft at 18,000 feet today because you generally want southwesterly winds up there to bring in drier air aloft and enhance wind shear a little bit more, but this will have to do today. We've seen decent storms with this kind of upper-level wind situation before so it's not enough to rule anything out. It's nice to be able to chase on a day when we thought we would not be able to, so anything we see today will be icing on that cake!

Follow my updates today on Twitter and Facebook for the latest.

5/20 - 11:45am CDT - Texas Panhandle Today

We're on the road from Oklahoma City to the Panhandle region of Texas where storms are likely to form today. Right now we're watching a clear area on satellite near a cold front situated just south of a line from Childress to Lubbock, TX. This clearing should help to build instability for storms to form as heating from the sun is allowed to reach the surface. Winds and dew points at the moment are not terribly favorable, but the most recent RAP (Rapid Refresh) model does have surface winds turning more easterly during the afternoon bringing in more moisture.

Even though winds at the surface will likely be favorable, winds aloft at 18,000 feet (500 mb) will be weak and westerly to west-northwesterly. It would be preferrable to have winds at that level that are fast and from the southwest, so not having much of either of those components will be a limiting factor. Storms that form this afternoon could have some large hail and winds, but the tornado threat at the moment looks marginal given the lack of upper wind support and possibly lower dew points.

Given these factors, the Storm Prediction Center has decided to forgo issuing a severe weather risk for the area today and only has a general storm risk with mention of some isolated instances of severe storms. The trick today will be to find these isolated instances wherever the best environment for these sets up this afternoon.

The latest updates on our chase are available on Twitter and Facebook.

5/16 - 10:45am CDT - To Colorado We Go!

After spending quite a bit of time in Texas over the past few days we are on our way north to Colorado this morning. We're going to try to chase some storms that may form in the upslope flow of the Front Range of the Rockies. Here's how these form: Moist air flows from east to west up the gentle slope of the mountains during the afternoon. This moist air when lifted by the terrain condenses because it's moving into cooler air aloft. As more air rises up this gentle east-west slope, it continues to condense to form clouds and eventually thunderstorms. Since the mountains act as a constant source of lift, these storms can be pretty reliable as long as other ingredients are in place.

Here's the issue for today though... Moisture is going to be hard to come by today because the last major system to roll through the Plains last week pushed all the moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico. A little bit of it will be returning to the region today though and we can already see that happening on the current surface map. Dew points right now are in the 30's with a couple 40 degree plus readings across the eastern part of Colorado where these storms will form. In a perfect world you'd want easterly winds to be blowing in better moisture and to create better low-level shear, but this morning we're dealing with southeasterly winds. The good part is that it doesn't take as much moisture to generate these storms as it does in lower elevations. Generally you want dew points to be above 40 degrees in this region, and that's something we may struggle to get today if the computer models are correct.

Putting all of this together with some weak southwest winds at 500 mb (18,000 ft) there is a chance for some storms in Eastern Colorado today. With potentially weak moisture return the setup for anything severe looks very "iffy" at this point and the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Eastern Colorado under only a general thunderstorm risk because of this. We'll keep an eye on the surface observations this morning and afternoon to determine whether moisture will return as needed.

Last night I had a good internet connection at our hotel and was able to upload some video. Check out my footage of our encounter with golf ball size hail and flash flooding east of Lajitas, Texas on Monday:




Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates on our chase today!

5/15 - 11:30am CDT - Excitement in Southwest Texas Yesterday

My apologies for not having a blog post last night. We're in the Big Bend National Park area of Texas and there was little to no cellular data service where we stayed last night. Our travels along the Mexican border region of Southwest Texas yesterday were quite exciting though. We started off in Pecos, Texas and traveled south to Paradisio, Texas right on the border. We waited here for some storms to form before heading eastward to intercept them. Most of these storms were clustered together, but there were a couple cells that stayed independent that came toward us and crossed the border. The tornado threat wasn't realized yesterday because low-level shear did not play out as forecast due to unfavorable surface winds and multiple storms contaminating each other with cold outflow air. As we drove on the mountainous road along the Rio Grande river (yes there was a certain Duran Duran song of the same name stuck in my head) there was not much cell service so we had very limited radar updates. We drove east of Lajitas, Texas as the strongest cell at the time came at us rather quickly with no escape. Our vehicles pulled to the side of the road near a rock wall and that shielded us from the brunt of the golf ball size hail that came down.

This storm put down a huge amount of rain, so much so that the residents in this area that we talked to hadn't seen something like it in over four years. The deluge quickly overwhelmed the ground and widespread flash flooding took place. Our road east along the border was flooded by a foot of water at one point, so we stopped for an hour to let the water level drop. 6 or more inches of water is dangerous to drive through. The rushing rapids going over the road brought some pretty big rocks and debris, but luckily none of this was too big for a hand toss to the side of the road. Our group then continued on to a town just outside the Big Bend park area where we spent the night. I have some great video of the hail and flood yesterday that I'll try to upload once we get to a hotel with internet service.

Today's storm setup in Texas looks very marginal so we're touring the Big Bend area and then heading north so we can be ready for storms that may form in Eastern Colorado later on this week. With limited moisture in the Plains it might be hard to find some good storms over the next few days. We'll make the best of it!

Keep up with our chase by following me on Twitter and Facebook.

5/14 - 12:45pm CDT - Pressing Further Southwest in Texas

Today we're continuing on southwestward in Texas where fast westerly and northwesterly winds aloft and moist, easterly winds at the surface will combine to create a potential for severe weather. These winds should create enough shear for supercells among some scattered storms and more specifically there is a chance for a couple tornadoes down this way. There are a few clouds on the visible satellite view right now from ongoing storms in the region, but areas closer to the Mexican border near Marfa and Fort Davis are pretty much cloud free. There is a field of cumulus clouds we're driving toward south of Marfa that may serve as a focus for development, so we'll see how that pans out. In any case we have lots of direct sunlight and instability already building for storms later this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather today across extreme southwest Texas where we're at and they've even included a 5% tornado risk area. This is the best setup we've had so far this week, so we remain hopeful that we'll see some great stuff today! There aren't many roads around the area so this will be a challenging chase day even though the ingredients appear to be coming together pretty well.




Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest today!

5/14 - 12:30am CDT - Great Lightning Tonight in West Texas!

We were treated to a great lightning show just north of Pecos, Texas earlier this evening as a few isolated storms merged together to create a fast-moving line of storms (MCS) that quickly caught up with us. These storms packed some very large hail and high winds at their peak, but luckily we were able to stay ahead of them during that time. The storm kicked up quite a bit of dust in the gust front, so it created low visibilities and an eerie scene in Pecos as it moved through. This comes after a day of fruitless chasing because storms that were expected to form near the Midland, Texas area did not due to a lack of required surface heating. More photos of this storm are available on my Flickr and Facebook albums.

Tomorrow we'll likely be chasing in West Texas again, but this time it may be closer to the Mexican border. Fast winds aloft, moisture at the surface, and winds blowing up the mountains in Mexico from the east should trigger some storms tomorrow afternoon after the ones tonight move through. The setup will be relatively similar to today, but hopefully we're able to get some more stronger isolated storms out of this. Here's some of the high points from the Storm Prediction Center's discussion on tomorrow with their Slight Risk area:

IN THESE AREAS...STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ANDVEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY AGAIN CONGEAL/ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING LINEAR CLUSTERS WITH A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT CONTINUING MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VICINITY.

Get the latest storm chasing updates on my Twitter and Facebook accounts!

5/13 - 10:15am CDT - Going West!

This week's storm chasing tour is starting out with a trip west from Oklahoma City. Fast westerly and north westerly winds aloft this afternoon over West Texas and Eastern New Mexico will provide support for potentially severe storms. While originally it looked like we would definitely be chasing in an area near and west of Fort Stockton, TX, the latest data coming in right now has actually increased the amont of moisture closer to Amarillo and Lubbock, TX. This moisture along with easterly winds rotating around a high pressure center near Wichita, KS could provide a secondary target area for us, which is good because we may not have to drive as far today! We're keeping an eye on the trends as we're traveling west on I-40 and right now we're leaning toward the more northern target near Amarillo and Lubbock because we think the models are underestimating the amount of moisture that will be allowed into that region this afternoon.

The satellite picture has been on our computer screens this morning too because it's revealing where storms may set up later on today. The previously more favorable target near Fort Stockton in far West Texas on I-10 looks a bit dismal at the moment because of the showers and clouds currently over that area. This may act to inhibit surface heating and the building of instability this afternoon for storm development. There are some storms in Eastern New Mexico, but those may actually help to moisten up the atmosphere closer to where you see the favorable clear slot in the clouds near Amarillo and Lubbock.

The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk area for severe weather over extreme West Texas and the eastern half of New Mexico for this afternoon. This outlook came out before the latest data showing the favorability in conditions near Amarillo and Lubbock did, so some northward changes may be made in the outlook that will come out at 11:30am CDT. Overall, the (small) tornado threat today highly depends on how much moisture we can get into the area so that cloud bases are low enough along with how much low-level shear sets up.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook today for live updates!

5/13 - 11:35pm CDT - Switching Tour Groups and Heading West!

After a long drive from just south of San Antonio, TX to Oklahoma City we're looking back at what was a great Tour 1 on Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. Our trip this week took us 2,937 miles (4,726 km) through Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. We saw some great storms and I think everyone had a great time on our exciting chase!


Today was one of our "down days" in Oklahoma City when the guests from the previous storm chasing tour depart on their flights and the guests on our upcoming tour arrive. Tonight we welcomed our guests on Tour 2 and had our orientation before going out to dinner. Tomorrow we'll be on the move to Eastern New Mexico and West Texas to hopefully intercept some storms that will form on the upslope winds of the higher elevations down there. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather down in that area, but our exact target location will be determined tomorrow morning based on the latest data.

My live storm chasing updates on Twitter and Facebook resume tomorrow!

5/11 - 11am CDT - A Crazy Chase in South Texas Yesterday

Our timing yesterday was just about perfect. As we surged southward from Carlsbad, New Mexico to the Del Rio, Texas area we began tracking storms that were forming in the mountains of Mexico near the Texas border. One fairly supercell formed along a boundary of converging wind just north of Laredo, TX in Mexico and we knew that this was the storm we needed to chase. It merged with another supercell that was moving north quickly to create a big storm with some intense rotation. We were able to get to the south side (where a tornado would be) just in time so that the hail and intense rain wouldn't cut us off from our road down to that area. Once we were there we saw some definite rotation and a couple wall clouds, but the storm was moving fast so we had to keep moving toward Laredo. We pulled over in a parking area just north of the city and continued to watch a wall cloud form that had a tiny hint of a funnel cloud in it. It was so small that it was barely visible, but it was certainly in rotation and was on the correct part of the storm. That was about all the storm had to offer tornado-wise.

By the time we made it east from Laredo the storm had merged with others to form a line of storms called an MCS (mesoscale convective system). This pretty much killed the tornado risk for this storm so we watched a very impressive lightning show from it as the sun set. Given the excitement that we had while chasing the storm while north of Laredo yesterday, it was a pretty good day! You can find more storm chasing photos from yesterday and earlier this week on my Flickr and Facebook albums.

Today we're traveling back to Oklahoma City so that our guests on Tour 1 can depart on their flights tomorrow. Tour 2 starts tomorrow night with our orientation and then we set out on Sunday for another week of storm chasing!

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook anytime for storm chasing updates.

5/10 - 11:20am MDT - A Change in Plans Today

Our original plan to stay in Southeast New Mexico today has been altered because of some new weather data that came in overnight. We did visit Calsbad Caverns this morning, but we're now on our way to the Del Rio, Texas area where storms are ongoing at the moment. This activity is definitely not making it easy for our forecast this morning because having clouds and storms in the hours before an afternoon severe weather setup is never a good thing. Nonetheless, we'll be looking for holes in this activity and/or for it to die off a bit this afternoon so that stronger storms can develop. The good thing is that wind shear today looks promising due to a cut-off low in Mexico creating strong southwesterly winds aloft that will contrast with the easterly winds at the surface.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms in the region, which includes a 5% tornado risk. Should this pan out today even with the ongoing storms this morning, this could be the best setup we've seen so far this week. Here's an interesting snippet from the SPC's 1630z discussion:

THE EWD PROGRESSION OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL RESULT IN PRONOUNCED VERTICAL VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR STEADILY STRENGTHENING TO 50-60 KT. AS SUCH...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

Up-to-the-minute updates will continue today on Twitter and Facebook.

5/8 - 12:10pm CDT - Targeting New Mexico Today

We're on the road west today from Fort Stockton, Texas as we move toward Southern New Mexico. This is one of two areas we considered chasing in this morning, with the other being in Southern Texas. The reason we are not in Southern Texas is because there are thunderstorms going on already down there and the cool air and cloud cover from those will act to contaminate the environment for storm development this afternoon. Even though the very same cold front we saw yesterday and the day before will act as a focus for storms down there today, this contamination should rule out most of the chance for nice, isolated supercells.

Even though 500 mb (18,000 foot) winds will be stronger in Texas because a shortwave disturbance on the edge of an upper-level low is moving through the region, they should be ample in New Mexico. The southwesterly flow at that level and the fact that winds will be spreading apart (diverging) should lead to rising air in this region near the surface. These winds coupled with easterly surface winds will create wind shear, which is needed to sustain and cause a storm to rotate.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued two Slight Risk areas for today in Texas and New Mexico. There is a 2% tornado risk in Southern Texas, but this may not play out well down there thanks to the ongoing storms and clouds this morning. There's no tornado risk area in New Mexico, but my hunch is that there might be the potential for one or two little ones there today based on the directional shear that will be present with even a little bit of speed shear. Moisture will be a bit limited today, but you don't need as much in the upslope areas of New Mexico because elevation compensates for a lack of moisture. We're keeping an eye on conditions as they develop and hopefully I'll have more great pictures to share later today!

My constant updates on Twitter and Facebook will continue today during our chase.

5/8 - 12:10am CDT - Today's Texas Storms

Our initial target area near San Angelo, Texas quickly soured as storms fired early in the day just after noon. This was because the environment was not capped enough, meaning warm air aloft was not present to limit storm development and isolate it so only the strongest updrafts would survive. Since all the storms fired at once, and especially in an area where winds were becoming northerly aloft, they merged into a large mesoscale convective system (MCS) that moved toward San Antonio and Austin. Before the MCS formed, the individual storms did have some rotation and supercellular characteristics. Check out this panorama of a severe storm with rotation just south of San Angelo I took earlier today below.

Once we left that batch of storms, we surged westward to the Fort Stockton and Pecos, Texas area where easterly winds and storms forming to the higher elevations to the west had the best chance to become isolated supercells. One of these cells moving due east (a "right mover") looked very promising for quite a few hours, but an outflow boundary from the eastern batch of storms near San Angelo that we were chasing contaminated the environment that the storm was in. This was surprising given that outflow boundaries are almost always a good thing since they can enhance low-level shear and create lift to eithe create other storms or enhance existing ones. The fact of the matter was that this outflow boundary was much too strong because it had a very large area of rain-cooled air from the storms to the east. This acted more like an airmass than a boundary, and the subsequent little isolated storms that formed after the initial right-moving cell we saw in West Texas did not grow as they could have because the environment was contaminated. It was a beautiful afternoon though, and the storm below is the last one we saw before heading to our hotel.

As we headed to our hotel we saw a great lightning show from storms that formed over higher elevations to our south. The lightning was fairly frequent and there were quite a few cloud-to-ground strikes. I was able to get one of my best-ever lightning shots during our time watching these storms, which you'll see to the right. Lightning photography requires patience, knowing your way around your camera, and luck. Tonight's patience paid off!

Tomorrow looks like another day in Texas or one in New Mexico. There are two target areas we're monitoring, one of them in Southern Texas and the other in West Texas and Southern New Mexico. Southern Texas would be a setup where we target storms near the same cold front we've been chasing southward for the past two days whereas New Mexico/West Texas will be more of an upslope storm situation with lower (but not inadequate) dew points. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined these two areas with a Slight Risk in their Day 2 outlook, but this may need adjusting by tomorrow morning. I'll have our latest chase forecast on here tomorrow morning!

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest storm chasing updates!

5/7 - 10am CDT - On Our Way to South Texas

The same cold front that we targeted yesterday in Kansas and Oklahoma is on the move southward and so are we. We're on our way to South Texas this morning to meet up with where the front, the dry line (boundary between moist air to the east and dry air to the west), surface heating, easterly winds, and moisture all meet up. Storms should fire along the front and/or dry line this afternoon as instability builds. You'll see in the image to the right that there's a sliver of high dew points that will develop in Southwest Texas this afternoon that will be our focus as the cold front moves south.

Due to the threat of severe storms this afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk area for portions of South Texas with a 2% tornado risk (pictured left). Some of these storms will have large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk, like yesterday, looks fairly low due to weak winds aloft, but the directional wind shear will help out as well as high instability. There may just be enough ingredients to spawn one or two tornadoes today down there, so we'll cross our fingers and keep driving!

As usual, I'll be posting up-to-the-minute storm chasing updates on my Twitter and Facebook accounts today.

5/6 - 11:45pm CDT - Bust Today in Kansas, Texas Tomorrow

A layer of cirrus clouds really but a damper on our chase today as they blocked storms from forming along a cold front that was in the process of moving through Central Kansas and Northwest Oklahoma. The cold front also accelerated, which didn't help since areas that were prime for development had their warm, moist air swept out quickly. Storms did develop in Northeast Kansas today, but the potential up there for the best isolated storms was considerably less than where we were based on the data we use. Those storms were clustered together as expected, but a couple were able to get out by themselves for a bit and get a little rotation (one dropped a funnel cloud that possibly touched down briefly near Kansas City). At the end of the afternoon we ended up getting on I-35 and making our way south toward Texas where we want to be for tomorrow. Check out the nice sunset in the image on the right from Oklahoma City!

Tomorrow we'll likely be somewhere around South Central Texas, where the dry line will be the focus for storm development. Moisture will be plentiful there since the front we chased near today will not have swept through Texas yet. The dry line will not be terribly sharp in the area in question tomorrow according to the 0z NAM model. We really want that sharp dry line so that it provides good lift for storm development, but we'll see how it pans out tomorrow morning. The Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather outlook has a Slight Risk for areas east of Fort Stockton tomorrow, but my hunch is that it may move east a little bit in their next outlook based on some of the data I've seen this evening. We'll look at the data tomorrow morning and I'll post on here once we're on the road!

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest tomorrow!

12/17 - 11:50pm - A Not So White Christmas

Positive NAO - http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/NAO

Christmas is just a week away and snow chances for many in the eastern half of the nation look pretty bleak. The next major system to pull through on Tuesday and Wednesday will produce snow in the Plains, but to the east it's expected to be all rain. A second low moving through the Deep South on Friday will bring more rain, but most of that will stay south of Kentucky and the heaviest south of Tennessee. After that point it looks pretty dry right through Christmas. Why so rainy and relatively warm lately? It has to do with the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO for short. When the NAO is negative, storms tend to ride up the East Coast or just west of the Appalachian Mountains. This is a recipe for snow for many across the East since these storms have cold air streaming in just to the north of their track. When the NAO is positive, storms begin deflecting northward to Canada before they reach the Mississippi River. This means that the cold air and snow with these storms stays out in the Plains. The NAO is in this positive phase right now and isn't forecast to go neutral or even negative until around the new year (see forecast and history chart to the right). Until we can get the NAO negative, I wouldn't bet on a winter storm for Kentucky, Tennessee, or much of anywhere else in the East.

23% of the United States is covered by snow at the moment, which is quite a bit lower than the 47.3% covered by snow at this time last year. Aside from Lake Effect snowcover in Pennsylvania and New York and snowcover in northern Maine, the East is snow-less.

A big winter storm is forecast to hit New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and Kansas on Monday and Tuesday as an area of low pressure cuts northeastward (because of the positive NAO as explained above) through the Plains. A Blizzard Warning (green color on right image) has been issued for Northeast New Mexico while the other areas are under a Winter Storm Watch. Areas in the core of the snowfall north of Amarillo, TX up through Dodge City, KS could get well over a foot of snow.

5/21 - 3pm CDT - Back in Amarillo to Prepare for Next Week

We're in Amarillo today getting ready for another tour group to arrive. We washed and vacuumed the van (it was bad from all that Kansas dust), so we're ready for another week of storm chasing. We'll have two vehicles this week filled with excited storm chasing tour guests from all over the world, so it should be a good run.

SPC Severe Probability - Mon

Things are looking quite interesting next week, but we're meeting each risk of severe weather with tempered optimism after the problems that plagued our storms this week. Sunday looks to be a travel/sightseeing day because the risk of severe weather is too far east for us to travel from Amarillo and the terrain/vegetation in that part of the country presents even greater difficulty. Monday, on the other hand, looks pretty good. A surface low near the OK/TX panhandles should move in and deepen considerably throughout Monday, setting the stage for severe storms to erupt in West Oklahoma and Southwest Kansas. We'll likely play the Southwest Kansas component of this risk because of the east winds hitting the up-sloping geography with plenty of moisture in tow. Should be a decent tornado threat with this should it all pan out as the models indicate. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 30% Slight Risk for severe weather in this area due to these factors.

SPC Severe Probability - Tues

Tuesday will be a very similar setup, just translated 150 miles east. The SPC has already outlined a risk area for Tuesday on their 4-8 day outlook, so they're confident this far out that something may happen. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday may not be great chase days due to a small bit of ridging building into the Plains, but there's a possibility that a trough may move in soon enough on Thursday to where we may be able to chase in the North Plains of Nebraska and South Dakota. I sense a long drive back to Amarillo on Friday if that happens. The models are indicating that the severe weather setup may shift to the North Plains just in time for us to switch to our base in Denver next weekend. Let's hope so!

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As always, you can follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates on our chase. Storm Chasing Adventure Tours also has a new Facebook page that you can "Like" to receive updates and photos from the group.