6/29 - 10:15am CDT - The Chase Ends...

Today we're heading back to Denver as Tour 8 with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours ends. Right now we're making the seven hour journey from Valentine, Nebraska where we stayed last night. We had a storm about an hour south of Valentine yesterday that showed some promise, but it fell apart as it moved east. Tomorrow is when everyone departs and that's my cue to get on my plane back home to Louisville. It's been a great week with just about every day being a day with an active chase.

This is not one of those chase days unfortunately. With our required drive back to Denver we don't have time to chase any storms that are more than a few miles away from our route. There is a Slight Risk for storms today in Northeastern Nebraska stretching into South Dakota, but that's just too far out of the way for us. We may have a few run-of-the-mill storms along our route back to Colorado, but that's about it. I'll have a post tomorrow detailing our mileage and route from this week.

6/28 - 11:30am MDT - Waking Up in Nebraska

After storms in Northeast Colorado yesterday became contaminated by storms coming off the Front Range, we decided to head east to be ready for today's chase. After waking up in Ogallala, Nebraska this morning we're rested up for a relatively leisurely day without too much driving since we're already pretty much in our target area for the day. The Storm Prediction Center has a general thunderstorm risk out for Western Nebraska, Northeast Colorado, and Northwest Kansas today with a 5% severe wind risk.

The focus today will be a cold front that's slowly moving through the region today. Winds around this frontal boundary may shift out of the east a little bit and that's where we'll position ourselves since the best shear will be where that happens. Dew points will be in the 60's across Central Nebraska this afternoon with slightly lower readings to the west. These surface winds, while weak, and the moisture should be more than enough to get some storms going.

Winds aloft are a little less certain since they may change throughout the day. Early on this morning winds at 500 mb (18,000 feet) were almost westerly across the western half of Nebraska, but already we've seen a shift to the southwest. While not terribly strong, the winds up there could have just enough punch to get storms to become severe. Small embedded shortwaves within the flow may enhance these winds a bit in some areas too. By 6pm MDT tonight the RAP model (right) still has these winds out of the southwest aloft, so that's some good news. The thinking at this point is that the shear won't be high enough to keep storms from merging together and being clustered, but we'll see how that plays out.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for constant updates during our chase!

6/24 - 11:55pm MDT - An Unexpectedly Great Chase Today!

I can't say that I fully expected to see a great storm today. With all the intense surface heating and warm air aloft coupled with weak upper-level winds, the odds were against us. The great thing is that a storm did indeed form in this environment and it took advantage of every ounce of energy it was given from what it looked like. This storm split into a couple parts at one point and these parts were battling each other out for a while before merging back into one mean storm. This storm did have a few radar scans of rotation and we could certainly see it from the ground for a few minutes as a brief rotating wall cloud formed. A fleeting finger-like funnel danged down for a moment at the peak of the rotation, but it was gone by the time we all pointed it out and raised our cameras to capture it. Something that stuck in the back of my mind is what I posted on the Storm Chasing Adventure Tours Facebook page last night in an update:

Looks like we may be heading north from Denver in the morning! A few storms may try to develop during the afternoon and evening tomorrow where South Dakota, Nebraska, and Wyoming meet.

The intersection of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Wyoming is almost exactly where this storm formed today. Where the three white lines intersect to form a rotated "T" on the upper-right of the radar image to the left is where these state lines come together. My estimate of where we would end up was an educated guess based on data, but I really didn't expect it to come so incredibly close. The other thing about this storm is that it was the only severe storm west of the Mississippi River at the time we were chasing it during the late afternoon. Storms that developed to the south of us in Northeast Colorado just couldn't get strong because it was much too warm both at the surface and aloft.

Check out the video below to see the storm in action and then check out my Flickr or Facebook storm chasing albums for even more views of today's chase:

Tomorrow we'll be heading northward to the Dakotas or Wyoming. The Storm Prediction Center has a 5% risk for severe weather, but we'll be looking at all the data tomorrow morning to see how it all shapes up! Be sure to check back around noon tomorrow on the East Coast for a complete blog update with a discussion on where we're headed.

6/24 - 10:35am MDT - The Chase Begins!

This morning we're heading toward Cheyenne, Wyoming from Denver as we continue to look at weather data coming in. Today's setup still looks marginal by most accounts, but there are a few small features that could cause a few isolated storms to go severe. For one, surface winds out of the east in Wyoming, Northeast Colorado, and Nebraska will generate upslope flow, which is the lift mechanism we need to get storms going.

These winds will also create some shear because they will be interacting with southwesterly winds at 500 mb (18,000 feet). The issue with this is that the faster winds at this level will be further north toward Rapid City, South Dakota instead of where the more favorable surface winds will be just to the south. In any case, the wind direction at 500 mb will be good enough to usher in the wind shear and maybe some drying of the air at that level to increase instability.

When you put the expected helicity (caused by wind shear) and the instability together for today, you get the Energy Helicity Index (EHI). According to the 14z RAP model, the EHI may try to ramp up a little bit in Northeast Colorado and it even breaks out a little bit of precipitation just west of there too. Surface heating is going to be massive since temperatures will be in the 90's and 100's in some places, so we're hoping this also helps overcome some of the warm temperatures aloft (the cap) so that isolated storms can develop. We're grasping for small features today since there isn't any one thing jumping out to get our attention, but so far it looks like a storm or two could fire on the elevation near Cheyenne. We'll also be watching an area closer to Rapid City, SD to see how things develop up that way.

Follow my continuous chase updates on my Twitter and Facebook accounts today!

5/23 - 11:50am CDT - Nebraska or Colorado?

Today we're in the Cornhusker state of Nebraska in search of severe storms. Yesterday's chase in what ended up being extreme southern South Dakota was short-lived as storms that formed up that way south of Murdo, SD quickly dissipated due to a low amount of moisture and contamination of their inflow via a layer of clouds that formed to the south of them. The storm we chased had a nice structure for a few minutes and even put down a bit of a wall cloud before it fell apart.

A cold front situated across the center of Nebraska will be the focus for storms this afternoon. The band of clouds on the satellite image is roughly where the front is located right now and it will slowly sag south and east today. A low forming over Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas should help back the winds out of the east this afternoon here in portions of Nebraska and that will increase low-level wind shear needed for rotating storms as that happens. This low will also create easterly winds in Northeast Colorado, so that may be a secondary target area for today.

We're already seeing some easterly winds beginning to set up in Nebraska this morning and we'll be watching where those develop this afternoon as well. Dew points are still quite low this morning in the upper 50's, but more moisture should move in this afternoon and bump up dew points to around 60 or higher. This is still a bit low for good storms, but we'll probably be better off than we were yesterday in this regard. Dew points in Northeast Colorado won't have to be as high for good storms thanks to the elevation there.

The environment today is rather "capped" as we say, meaning there's a warm layer of air above the surface layer that's prohibiting storm development. As surface heating gets going later this afternoon and into this evening there should be enough energy for updrafts to break through this cap and form storms. This means that storms should be fairly isolated at least starting out, which is a good thing since isolated storms are more organized, more likely to produce a tornado, and easier to chase. Some of these isolated storms may become supercells, and that's exactly the thing we're after since they may produce a few tornadoes today. Storms may condense into one or more lines of storms later this evening as the cap quickly erodes after dark. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather today from Colorado to Minnesota and that includes a couple areas of 5% tornado risk. There's a chance we may bug out on our plans for Nebraska and move to the secondary area you see there in Northeast Colorado, so stay tuned.

Follow up-to-the-minute updates today on my Twitter and Facebook accounts!

5/21 - 11:55pm MDT - Nice LP Supercell Today

Today didn't turn out to be the best chase, but we made the best of it with the sighting of a nice low-precipitation (LP) supercell near Grande, New Mexico. This formed within a line of discrete storm cells that stretched from Southeast Colorado to Central New Mexico. The formation of these cells in a line among an environment characterized by northwest wind flow at 18,000 feet (500 mb) didn't make for the best conditions for severe storms, but a few of them did reach severe limits. Besides this low-profile supercell and possibly a couple others in the same line, an "out of the blue" classic supercell formed ahead of an eastward-advancing MCS (mesoscale convective system - line of storms) just west of Amarillo before being ingested by the actual MCS. It didn't form in the expected environment for this, so we were not in position to see this short-lived storm. More photos of the LP supercell we saw today are available on my Flickr and Facebook albums.

Our tentative plan for tomorrow is to head to the Valentine, Nebraska area to intercept a severe weather threat that may manifest up there as a large-scale trough begins affecting the Northern Plains. Many would consider this an "secondary" target area since higher dew points and better surface winds will be in North Dakota, but in this case the moisture up in North Dakota will likely be confined to an area closer to the surface since there will not be enough time for ample deep moisture to make it up that far north. Northern Nebraska should have some deeper moisture than North Dakota and even though less helicity (spinning motion in atmosphere) will be present in Nebraska, Energy Helicity Index values are still forecast to be elevated according to the Rapid Refresh model. We'll make a final determination based on data coming in tomorrow morning before heading out!

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates on our chase!

5/17 - 4:15pm MDT - Some Fun in Denver!

Since good storms for chasing didn't form yesterday and won't form today, we're having a bit of fun in Denver, Colorado! Today we split into a few groups, one group that toured the Front Range of the Rockies, one that went to the Denver Art Museum, and another that went to the Elitch Gardens theme park in town. We all had a great time and will meet up this evening for dinner. Tomorrow we'll be heading back to Oklahoma City as Tour 2 ends and we'll be saying goodbye to our guests on Saturday morning.

For next week's tour, Tour 3, there may be a return of severe weather to the Plains. This may take until midweek though as a large-scale trough moves inland from the Pacific and moisture flows back into the region near the surface from the Gulf of Mexico. A lack of moisture in the Plains has plagued us for days now, so this return will be very welcome if what the long-range GFS model indicates pans out.

Be sure to keep up with my updates on Twitter and Facebook!
 

5/16 - 10:45am CDT - To Colorado We Go!

After spending quite a bit of time in Texas over the past few days we are on our way north to Colorado this morning. We're going to try to chase some storms that may form in the upslope flow of the Front Range of the Rockies. Here's how these form: Moist air flows from east to west up the gentle slope of the mountains during the afternoon. This moist air when lifted by the terrain condenses because it's moving into cooler air aloft. As more air rises up this gentle east-west slope, it continues to condense to form clouds and eventually thunderstorms. Since the mountains act as a constant source of lift, these storms can be pretty reliable as long as other ingredients are in place.

Here's the issue for today though... Moisture is going to be hard to come by today because the last major system to roll through the Plains last week pushed all the moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico. A little bit of it will be returning to the region today though and we can already see that happening on the current surface map. Dew points right now are in the 30's with a couple 40 degree plus readings across the eastern part of Colorado where these storms will form. In a perfect world you'd want easterly winds to be blowing in better moisture and to create better low-level shear, but this morning we're dealing with southeasterly winds. The good part is that it doesn't take as much moisture to generate these storms as it does in lower elevations. Generally you want dew points to be above 40 degrees in this region, and that's something we may struggle to get today if the computer models are correct.

Putting all of this together with some weak southwest winds at 500 mb (18,000 ft) there is a chance for some storms in Eastern Colorado today. With potentially weak moisture return the setup for anything severe looks very "iffy" at this point and the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Eastern Colorado under only a general thunderstorm risk because of this. We'll keep an eye on the surface observations this morning and afternoon to determine whether moisture will return as needed.

Last night I had a good internet connection at our hotel and was able to upload some video. Check out my footage of our encounter with golf ball size hail and flash flooding east of Lajitas, Texas on Monday:




Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates on our chase today!

6/3 - 11am CDT - Heading Back to Denver

Yesterday we chased a very picturesque supercell storm northeast of Minot, North Dakota. While it didn't produce a tornado, the cloud formations in the storm were spectacular alone. The first cell we tried to intercept drifted into Canada, but the cell in the picture below stayed just south of the border and we were able to take quite a few pictures as the sun set. The only bad thing about this storm was that it occurred over the flooded fields of North Dakota, so the mosquito swarm was out in force (yes, I'm itching all over this morning). It was very difficult to even hold still for three seconds to take a picture because the mosquitos began covering and biting exposed skin almost immediately after getting out of the van. Keep that in mind as you're viewing the photos below.








It was quite an experience yesterday since most of us haven't been that far north in the contiguous 48 states before. Our overnight stay in North Dakota means a long (700 mile +) trip to Denver, Colorado to day so that we can pick up our next tour group and say goodbye to our guests on tour 5. Sadly, this is also the end of the road for me this season. I'll be flying back to Louisville tomorrow afternoon so that I can spend some time with my family this summer. It's been a great run and I'll post a quick wrap-up of this week's chase and my whole trip here either later tonight or tomorrow.

5/30 - 12am CDT - Upslope Storms Part Deux Fell Flat

Our second attempt in chasing upslope storms within a week fell flat today. Like last time, the cap stayed on too tight and a layer of clouds and fog overspread our target area just as we thought storms would initiate. While we waited this afternoon just east of Cheyenne, WY, we ran into Mike Bettes and the Weather Channel's Great Tornado Hunt crew.

The very fog that moved into our target area only grew thicker as we moved into Nebraska to try and limit our driving time needed for tomorrow. At it's thickest point, the fog dropped visibility to around 300 feet as we headed east on I-80. We literally could not see the signs on the side of the road until they were just to the right of the edge of our hood.

Tomorrow could be a pretty big day in the Dakotas and Northern Nebraska. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (45%) for portions of the area and expects a few significant tornadoes tomorrow afternoon before the storms merge into a linear line. I'll have an update tomorrow morning when we get on the road, which will be early so that we can get to our target on time.

5/29 - 10:45am MDT - Upslope Storms, Part Deux

We're heading to Northeast Colorado/West Nebraska/Eastern Wyoming this morning for the second time in less than a week in search of upslope thunderstorms. Hopefully this run will be more successful than our attempt last week when the cap held on too tight and there were no storms (save for a weak one in West NE). The setup today is fairly classic for this area, with east winds already setting up across much of Northeast Colorado, West Nebraska, and Eastern Wyoming. These are the surface winds necessary to get the moist air to lift as the air moves west along the increasing elevation (scroll down to my 5/26 post to get a more detailed explanation).


Our major concern this morning has been the cloud shield, but it appears that it's clearing out pretty well to allow for the building of instability this afternoon. We're looking at a 5-6pm MDT timeframe when storms will fire across our target area as surface heating overcomes the cap (warm layer of inhibiting air aloft). A warm front pushing northward should help this process and increase dew points. Hopefully we'll get some supercells out of this today. With the east winds at the surface and southwest winds aloft, I'm inclined to think that we will as long as the cap doesn't hold too tight.


Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates while we're chasing!

5/28 - 10:30am MDT - A New Week Starts in Denver

We're on the road to Denver this morning to meet with our guests on tour 5 this afternoon. Yesterday we finished up tour 4, which ran 2,369 miles through 6 states. Check out the image below for a map of the route we took last week through Tornado Alley:


Tomorrow we begin chasing again, and our target area could be Northeast Colorado or Eastern South Dakota. I'm inclined to think that we'll go or Northeastern Colorado if conditions look good in the morning because of the proximity to our base in Denver. On Monday we'll probably be in Nebraska for what looks to be a supercell event that will eventually turn into a line of storms in the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted a Slight Risk area on their outlook for Monday, so we'll have to take a closer look at the forecast this evening and tomorrow.

5/27 - 10am MDT - Denver, Amarillo, Denver

The next 36 hours are going to be a whirlwind. We stayed in Denver last night after trying to chase an upslope storm setup in Eastern Colorado that didn't materialize thanks to cloud cover and possibly marginal southeast winds. We're now on our way to Amarillo to drop off our tour guests from tour 4 so they can leave on their flights tomorrow morning. We'll be leaving too... back to Denver again so that we can receive our new guests on tour 5 and begin another week of storm chasing. So, 8 hours to Amarillo today and 8 hours back to Denver tomorrow. We drove 414 miles yesterday in search of severe weather, and it's a shame that it didn't work out.


Next week's weather looks promising for chasing. Sunday will most likely be a day to setup for Monday's chase in the Eastern North Plains, but there's a chance something could fire in Nebraska while we're on our way. Monday already has a risk area outlined by the SPC in Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota. Tuesday will probably be a down day as a bit of a trough builds in. The rest of the week will most likely be a chase in the North Plains as well, but it's a bit too far away to make an accurate guess at where exactly we'll be. Looks like we may be lacking upper-level support in many areas after Tuesday, but we'll see how things shape up.

5/26 - 11:45am MDT - Upslope Storms in Northeast Colorado

Good morning from I-70 westbound near Burlington, Colorado! We're on the hunt for upslope thunderstorms in Northeast Colorado (maybe Eastern Wyoming?) today since this appears to be the best chance for severe weather across the Plains. The reason we call these storms "upslope" is because they form when easterly or southeasterly winds blow into the higher elevations near the Rocky Mountains, causing air to lift as it does. This lift helps to create thunderstorms because the lifting air cools to its condensation point (a cloud is born) as it increases in elevation with the topography. Check out the graphic I made this morning to explain this concept to our tour guests during our briefing for a good visual:


It appears that shear will be quite good today, so rotating thunderstorms and supercells aren't out of the question. The tornado risk doesn't appear to be high today, but storms that have formed out this way over the past couple of weeks have had a history of overachieving by producing tornadoes and landspouts. Dew points will be in the upper 40's and 50's this afternoon across Eastern Colorado, which is good for storm development in this area. The elevation here compensates for the lack of moisture in the air, so you don't need the 60 degree + dew points that you need in the Central and Southern Plains. We already have dew points in the 40's this morning and the southeast upslope winds to carry in even more moisture, so we're well on our way:


The Storm Prediction Center has issued what's called a "See Text" for Northeast Colorado and Eastern Wyoming today. This means that the SPC doesn't feel this risk area merits a Slight Risk, but instead they want to direct your attention to the textual discussion below the graphic on the webpage for further information. This does not mean there won't be severe weather out here today. Since there will only be a couple isolated supercells affecting a small population, it's not worth it to issue a Slight Risk area. These supercells could put down tornadoes as I said before, but the risk to life and property is minimal due to the aforementioned low population out here. That's good news because we will have a great view of these storms today without the dangers and hinderance that populated areas pose to storm chasers. There is also a 2% tornado risk through extreme Northeast Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and Western Nebraska, which is something new on the 1630z SPC outlook that wasn't included with the early morning one. Hopefully we'll find some good storms today!


Don't forget to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest chase updates this afternoon!

6/7 - 11:15am - New Storm Chasing Highlights Page

I just posted a page on my website with all my best video and photos from this year's storm chase. You can access this page from the front of RyanHoke.com or follow this link: http://ryanweather.org/stormchasing2010.html. Also, my tornado video from last Monday near Campo, Colorado has been posted on the TornadoVideos.net YouTube account. Should be interesting to see how many views it receives!

An EF3-rated tornado near Millbury, Ohio killed seven people and damaged numerous homes and businesses on Saturday (read more). We were fortunate that none of the tornadoes we saw over the past few weeks damaged any homes or caused injuries, so it's very difficult to hear about a tornado that did. This underscores the importance of having access to severe weather warnings via NOAA Weather Radio or an electronic notification service, especially because tornadoes can strike at night when you're unprepared. Experiencing tornadoes out in open fields while storm chasing is one thing, but having a tornado hit your hometown is completely different. Stay safe this season!

6/1 - 7:30am CDT - Incredible Video from Yesterday!

Computer model errors and pure good luck led to an amazing tornado intercept near Campo, Colorado yesterday. Here's some HD video of what we saw yesterday, including a good shot from just 150 yards away from the first tornado:

This video is available in 720p and 1080p high definition.

Email ryan@ryanweather.org for media licensing.

I was able to snap a few pictures as well:

After an incredible intercept yesterday, we're headed to Northern Kansas or Nebraska this morning to chase more storms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Nebraska and Iowa under a Slight Risk for severe weather and a 5% tornado risk today, so we'll see how it goes up there!

5/28 - 10am MDT - Wyoming and Colorado

The best risk for severe weather today is in North Dakota, but we won't be able to make it there on time today. It's an eleven hour drive from Denver and we have to be back tonight for everyone's flights out tomorrow. Instead of North Dakota, we're going to shoot for the Wyoming/Colorado border area. Southwest flow aloft coupled with southeast surface winds and a batch of dry air coming into the area in the upper atmosphere should put the right ingredients in place for severe weather. A lack of a good source of lift and a strong cap in place may be a problem today, but we're hoping upslope flow overcomes some of these issues. The SPC has issued a 2% risk of tornadoes for the area, so maybe we'll be able to find some good storms today!

If severe weather develops today we'll be streaming LIVE video at http://stormchasertv.com. I'll also have the latest updates on Twitter and Facebook.

5/26 - 12pm MDT - Northeast Colorado

Good afternoon from just south of Eads, Colorado! We're on our way to Northeast Colorado where surface winds are already out of the southeast this morning and winds at 500mb are out of the southwest. This means that we'll have adequate shear this afternoon and storm motion should be very slow, much like yesterday. Dew points will be around 60, which is good for Colorado because of the elevation. A 5% tornado risk has been issued by the SPC for the area as well, so we'll see what we can find this afternoon!

My tornado video from yesterday is posted on the previous post below. I'll have a HD YouTube version of it on here after we get to a hotel tonight.

Remember that you can follow our chase with LIVE streaming video this afternoon at http://stormchasertv.com. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest chase updates!

5/26 - 9:30am MDT - Tornado Video Yesterday, Eastern CO

The internet connection at our hotel is very poor, so I was not able to upload my Walsh, CO tornado video from yesterday to YouTube for viewing in HD. I'll try to upload it again when we're at another hotel tonight. For now, here's a low resolution version that I was able to upload:



Here's a photo I snapped of the tornado when it was at its strongest:


It looks like we'll be chasing in Eastern Colorado today, but I'll have a full update once we're on the road later this morning.