10/29 - 3:30pm - Superstorm Sandy Coming in, Cool Week in Mississippi

Hurricane Sandy is a monster storm. That goes without saying. It's about two hours from landfall as of this writing but that won't matter much due to just how incredibly large the wind field is. Tropical storm winds extend for hundreds of miles from the center of the storm making this the largest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean at over 1,000 miles wide. This is big by area, not by wind speed. While the winds extend for an incredible area the winds in general are at Category 1 speeds near 90 mph. For areas in the tropics this may not sound so bad but for the Northeast this is a disaster since winds rarely get up to that strength with storms up there.

Something that also may be unprecedented here is the extreme snow threat from Sandy for the mountainous regions of West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Snow totals could be 1 to 2 feet in places when this storm is said and done. The other thing to consider with the size and scope of this storm is the storm surge that continues to roll in. Places like New York City and along the Jersey shore could be dealing with storm surge totals in excess of 11 feet thanks to the pure mass of water that will be coming in with the storm. This will create coastal flooding whereas the high rain totals will contribute to inland flooding. You'll hear about this storm for years to come... 765,000 customers are without power across the Northeast already and this storm is just cranking up.

How is this storm affecting us here in North Mississippi? We're just seeing cooler weather thanks to the large trough of cold air that's in place. This trough is the same one that's ingesting Sandy making it a very unique storm and pulling it into the Northeast. This cooler air is going to be sticking around for the foreseeable future but with some moderation. Highs won't get out of the lower 60's tomorrow and we'll finally break into the upper 60's on Wednesday for Halloween. Overnight lows tonight will be of concern since they'll be getting close to freezing, which will create a chance for some frost. Your complete Starkville forecast with these details and more are available in the video below!

8/27 - 9:30pm - Update on Isaac's Expected Gulf Coast Landfall

Tropical Storm Isaac is teetering on the edge of becoming a hurricane this evening with winds of 70 mph as of this writing. The threshold for a Category 1 hurricane is 74 mph. The storm motion has slowed down over the past few hours, now moving northwest at only 10 mph. Issac continues to run into issues that prevent it from rapid intensification, which is certainly good news. The latest issue is a batch of dry air that is currently being pulled into the center of the storm. Without an uninhibited source of moist air the storm cannot form a defined eye or intensify very well. The dry air is why Isaac is lopsided right now with most of the intense winds on the south side.

How long will it be until this dry air is finished working through the storm? Probably a few more hours, possibly lasting into the early morning hours tomorrow if current model forecasts are correct. Speaking of models, the current track from the National Hurricane Center takes Isaac right into the Eastern Louisiana/Mississippi Coast areas late tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning as a weak Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. With the lack of organization we're seeing right now it may only be a Category 1 at landfall. The latest computer model tracks, the spaghetti plots as you've probably heard about and seen over the past few days, have tightened up on a landfall location somewhere around New Orleans. It's worth noting that some of these models are now trending eastward after a massive amount of successive westward jogs in recent days. It doesn't appear that this landfall will take place further east than Biloxi, Mississippi given the current motion of the storm and model data, but the exact landfall location won't be the big story with this storm.

Storm surge exceedance probabilities

The big story here is how big and how slow this storm is. Sure, there will be some wind damage along the coast as the storm makes landfall, but the large area that Isaac covers means that quite an expansive area along the Gulf Coast will experience other effects from it. Storm surge at or above ten feet is possible in locations from New Orleans to Pascagoula, MS and rainfall amounts over a foot are forecast over much of Central and Southern Mississippi and Eastern Louisiana. Isaac will slow down even more than its current speed once it gets over land so heavy rain will be a good bet across much of the Gulf Coast states until we get into the weekend. Inland flooding will be a problem with the deluge that Isaac with unleash on the region as it crawls northward.

Rainfall through 7pm CDT Saturday

As far as local effects in North Mississippi and West Tennessee, Isaac will bring very heavy rain and winds with gusts in some cases near 40 mph. Starkville, MS may be looking at a six or more inch rainfall scenario through Saturday evening and areas in West Tennessee like Jackson will likely see more than three inches of rain. This highly depends on Isaac's exact track so some areas will see much more rain than others.

With just about any landfalling hurricane you can expect the threat of isolated tornadoes, and Isaac will be no different. The turning of winds with height in a hurricane or tropical storm create favorable wind shear for tornadoes to form in stronger parts of it. Due to this potential threat, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for most of Mississippi and parts of Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida.


So overall we're not looking at Isaac to be a major hurricane at landfall, but the effects from it will be widespread due to it's large size. It's a good thing that folks in a wide area are preparing for this storm since it could be a long haul given the slow motion that's expected from it.

8/23 - 5pm - Tropics, Drought, Storms... Anything Else?

Computer model forecast tracks for Isaac

The big shakeup in the world of weather right now is the presence of Tropical Storm Isaac south of Puerto Rico. Much uncertainty still exists with where the storm will go but certainty of it making some sort of US landfall is growing. Current forecast data from multiple computer models has this storm going anywhere from the eastern Florida Peninsula to the Central Gulf over the coming days. The trend has been for these forecast tracks to shift westward over the past couple days and that means that those with interests along the Gulf Coast need to watch this storm extremely carefully. The fact that this storm may miss most of Hispanola and it's rough terrain means that we could have a stronger storm than previously expected by the time it reaches the Gulf. Once we get some better data tonight from a NOAA Gulfstream IV aircraft that is being dispatched to take measurements of the storm the model data and forecasts should improve a bit.

The 5pm EDT National Hurricane Center update on Isaac has again taken a more westerly track than before thanks to the latest model data. Their forecast has Isaac remaining a tropical storm until it clears the north side of Cuba on Monday and becomes a hurricane. This all depends on where the storm tracks because the less of Cuba and Hispanola it goes over, the more time over warm water it will have. Should the storm remain weak like it is now for a longer period, a more westerly track can be expected.

How 'bout the drought? Not much has changed from last week's drought monitor product for West Tennessee and North Mississippi. Much of West Tennessee is still suffering from a severe to exceptional drought, especially in areas near the Mississippi River and Kentucky border. The area of exceptional drought, the highest level possible, has contracted a bit since last week. Areas south of Benton County and east of Bolivar aren't faring as badly as the rest of West Tennessee, but it's worth noting that rain may be hard to come by over the next week. The worst of North Mississippi's drought is still confined to areas near Tunica and areas south of West Point don't have drought conditions at this time.

Speaking of rain, we're looking at just a small chance for some isolated showers and storms on Saturday afternoon in North Mississippi as an upper-level system moves toward us from the west. This will increase our moisture and instability a touch since winds will be turning more southerly at the surface. West Tennessee will be too far north for this storm chance unfortunately. Small storm chances will be in the forecast again as we head into the early part of the workweek, but uncertainly skyrockets after that because our weather will depend on where Isaac, by then likely a hurricane, will go. A more westerly landfall along the Gulf Coast would mean quite a bit of rain for the region while a more easterly landfall in Florida wouldn't affect us too much. This again is something we'll need to watch.

6/1 - 9:15am - Going off the Grid

Starting this morning I will be on vacation for the next couple of weeks. I will likely not have internet access during this time so my blog and social media accounts will remain inactive until June 17th. As soon as I get back I'll be gearing up for another week of storm chasing that starts on June 23rd.

Here are a couple of weather tidbits going on today:

This is officially the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season. You wouldn't know it though because there have already been two named tropical storms Alberto and Beryl. No storms are going on in the Atlantic at this time and the forecast is for that to remain the same for at least the next couple of days.

There is a Slight Risk for severe weather over the Mid-Atlantic states today. A 10% tornado risk is in place from North Carolina to Maryland and there could be isolated supercell structures out that way during this afternoon's storms. A few high-based supercells may form in the Texas Panhandle this afternoon as well... hopefully my friends at Storm Chasing Adventure Tours can chase a few of these!

9/10 - 2:30pm - Quiet Weather in West Tennessee, GMWT Video

All is quiet in West Tennessee save for some scattered showers and possibly a storm that could form later this afternoon. Tomorrow's forecast looks fairly similar with temperatures running a couple degrees or so warmer. Once Monday rolls around, the upper-level low causing these shower chances should move east out of the area and completely sunny skies will take over. Rain chances will increase yet again during the middle part of next week. Check out the video below for a complete forecast:



I want to give a shout-out to anchor Will Nunley, who is leaving WBBJ today for other opportunities.

The tropics are active this weekend, but not for the United States. Tropical Storm Nate is tracking into Mexico and Tropical Storm Maria is recurving out to sea on what is historically the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic. The season runs until November 30th.

9/4 - 12:30pm - Yesterday's GMWT Video, TS Lee Update

Yesterday we began airing Good Morning West Tennessee for an additional hour starting at 8am. This means the Saturday show is now two hours, from 6-7am and again at 8-9am with Good Morning America airing in between. The forecast for West Tennessee still looks very wet today into tomorrow because of Tropical Storm Lee, but I think the rain should clear out as Labor Day rolls along. Check out some video from yesterday's broadcast below:

Lee is just hanging on to tropical storm status and should be downgraded to a depression later today as it moves inland. Just because it's weakening doesn't mean the risks from it will go away. Portions of Central Mississippi (I'm talking to you Starkville), Alabama, and even up through the Appalachian Mountains in North Carolina could see over eight inches of rain between now and Tuesday. Flooding is obviously a concern, so use caution while driving in these areas. Turn around, don't drown!

Tornadoes are also continuing a problem with Lee. There were 10 reports of tornadoes yesterday, some causing damage, along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. Two tornado watches are in effect with about a half dozen warnings in them from Mississippi to Florida. The tornado risk from Lee should lessen as it continues to come onshore tonight and tomorrow.

8/25 - 4:15pm - Hurricane Irene's Fever Pitch

Hurricane Irene is certainly causing some drama both over the airwaves and along the East Coast where thousands are preparing for what could be that area's first hurricane strike in a while. This will also be the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Ike in 2008. States of emergency have been declared by the governors of North Carolina, Virginia, New Jersey, Maryland, and New York as the storm takes aim at the region. Areas from Wilmington, North Carolina to Cape Hatteras to Norfolk, Virginia will likely take the brunt of Irene as it makes landfall as a Category 2 or 3 storm on Saturday. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the entire North Carolina coast and a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Virginia to New Jersey. On the satellite image to the top left you'll notice that Irene does not have a very apparent eye. This is because the storm has just completed an eyewall replacement cycle, which temporarily limits both the strength of the storm and the appearance of an eye. The eye will likely become much easier to see over the next 24 hours and the intensity of the storm will correspondingly increase.

The National Hurricane Center's 5pm EDT outlook for Hurricane Irene has the storm at Category 3 status with winds of 115 mph. For Tuesday and most of yesterday, it looked like Irene was going to miss much of the East Coast and curve back out to sea, but last night's and today's computer model runs have adjusted the storm's track quite a bit westward. This means hurricane force winds will be felt across a much larger portion of the North Carolina, Virginia coasts and even through to the Northeast and Delmarva Peninsula. To the right is a "spaghetti chart" showing all the computer model forecast tracks for Irene. There's a strong possibility that Irene may still be a Category 1 hurricane packing winds in excess of 75 mph and a storm surge up to 15 feet when it hits the New Jersey Shore, New York City, and Long Island areas on Sunday. While hurricanes that affect the Northeast aren't all that rare, the particular track of Irene and the intensity possible as it hits the area are causing great concern, especially about flooding. Folks from North Carolina to New England really need to pay attention to this storm this weekend and evacuate when instructed.

8/4 - 11:30am - Finally, a Break in Sight!

Ridge breaking at 500mb on Wed.

The weather here in Louisville is about the same as when I left it last week on vacation in California! The good thing is that a cold front that came through yesterday will keep temperatures in the lower 90's today, as opposed to mid 90's for the last few days, and the humidity will be a little less oppressive. That said, daily afternoon storm chances will increase tomorrow and especially Saturday when an area of surface low pressure will pass right over us. That low and the accompanying cold front will finally begin the breakdown of this hot, humid ridge that we've been stuck under for so long, but not before some higher heat and humidity sneaks its way into the region for the weekend. Temperatures will be in the 80's next week as this pattern breaks, which could be temporary at best if some of the long-range models are to be believed.

So far we've had 40 days with highs at 90 or above in Louisville, with 18 consecutive days at 90 or above on our current streak. At this point last year we were counting 46 days in the 90's so far, so it seems this summer is a fairly close repeat of last.

Talk of development in the tropics has come to a fever pitch lately as Tropical Storm Emily seems to be taking a path that will pass very close to the southeast coast of Florida. The forecast path has been flip flopping around a little bit over the last couple of days, but at least right now it appears that Florida will not see a landfall from this storm. Emily has sustained winds at 50 mph, which is still a ways from the 74 mph needed to be declared a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center's forecast includes Emily reaching hurricane status by Monday well off the coast of South Carolina.

9/4 - 10am - Hello from Louisville!

I'm back home in Louisville for the Labor Day weekend, which is sure to be filled with sunny skies, good food, and college football. The same cold front that came through North Mississippi yesterday came through here the day before, meaning temperatures will stay in the 70's here today with low dewpoints around the region. That front is brought pleasant weather to most of the Southeast, so go out there and enjoy it this weekend!

Hurricane Earl has now weakened into a tropical storm and is moving off toward Nova Scotia. It did not hit Cape Cod as a hurricane, which was very good news for the folks up there. There was some isolated flooding and numerous power outages, but that's about the extent of the damage in New England. North Carolina took a heavier blow from Earl, but the damage was not as significant as once feared. We turn our attention now to the remnant low of once Tropical Storm Gaston. This area of disturbed weather (marked by the red 70% circle in the NHC map) could once redevelop and turn into a storm that could affect the Caribbean and Gulf. We'll keep an eye on it.

8/30 - 7:45pm - Tropics Becoming Very Active / Calm in MS

The tropics have so-called "roared to life" over the past few days as Danielle, Earl, and Fiona have formed in the Atlantic. Danielle is no longer a hurricane and still poses no threat to land, so you can write that storm off. Hurricane Earl is the one making headlines as a Category 4 storm right now with sustained winds of 135mph. There's a chance this storm could become an ominous Category 5 storm over the next 24 hours as it nears the Outer Banks of North Carolina. There's much concern over Earl's effects on the East Coast, especially because the projected path of the storm (seen on left) has shifted closer and closer to the Outer Banks and much of New England over the past couple of days. The consensus among the various computer models (the 'spaghetti plot' to the right) is that Earl's center will stay off-shore, but it's too early to be sure about that because of the model inaccuracies and last-minute corrections that come with any storm. Should Earl track further west than anticipated, the East Coast will have quite a mess to contend with later this week. Rip currents and high waves from the storm passing offshore will be bad enough. A land falling Earl would really take things to the next level. Tropical Storm Fiona has also formed today, but it's way too early to tell if that storm will curve out to sea, hit the East Coast, or travel into the Gulf of Mexico.

Here in Mississippi we've had on and off rain over the past couple of days, but nothing all too heavy. As our air dries out from moist easterly flow from the Atlantic we've had all week, we should see a gradual decrease in clouds over the next couple days with dew points falling below 70 degrees. Our next chance of rain will happen on Friday as another cold front approaches and passes through North Mississippi. Rain chances won't be too high as the front will not have much moisture to work with as aforementioned. Don't forget to check back here tomorrow evening for my weekly MSU video weathercast!

8/2 - 9am - One Last Trip to Florida!

I'm off to Orlando, Florida for one last trip this summer before I have to move back to Mississippi State for the fall semester. It may be hot and muggy down there this time of year, but it's definitely a great way to top off a great summer break. After a week there, I'll be back in Louisville for a few days before heading back to college.

There's a possibility we could run into some issues with a developing tropical system this week that's currently positioned east of the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center says there's a 90% chance of this system becoming a tropical depression and the current computer model tracks (left) are taking it into the Bahamas later this week. Should Tropical Storm or Hurricane Colin form out of this and move near the Florida Peninsula, I'll post updates on Twitter and Facebook right from Orlando. Should be a fun week down there, but hopefully we don't get soaked by a tropical system!

7/22 - 10pm - Could We Get Another Shot at 100 Degrees?

100 degrees might not be that far off as high pressure has settled into the eastern half of the country. As it draws up warm, moist air from the south over the next couple days, temperatures and heat index values will skyrocket. The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Heat Advisory from noon to 7pm for both tomorrow and Saturday in lieu of the heat and humidity. Temperatures both tomorrow and Saturday could get very close to 100 degrees and even hit it in areas influenced by the urban heat island effect (like downtown Louisville and the larger suburbs). As dew points get into the lower to mid 70's, heat index values will surge past 100 or even 105 over the next couple days. In other words, be careful and stay hydrated if you have to go outside anytime soon!

Relief will come in the form of a front on Sunday, which should bring us a chance for thunderstorms until Monday morning. Temperatures will stay in the lower 90's after that with a small daily chance of rain through the remainder of the workweek.

Tropical Storm Bonnie (formerly Tropical Depression Three) has formed off the coast of Florida and is expected to hit the South Florida Coast before heading out to the Gulf of Mexico. It should remain a tropical storm until it makes landfall somewhere near Louisiana according to both the National Hurricane Center and the spaghetti chart (a compilation of various computer model forecast tracks - see right image). We'll have to keep a close eye on any intensification of this storm, especially when it exits the Florida Peninsula and heads into the Gulf.

6/28 - 11:30am - Tropical Storm Alex Could Hit TX as a Hurricane

Overnight model runs and analysis have taken the track of Tropical Storm Alex further north than before, meaning areas near Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas are in the cone of potential for the storm to make landfall as a hurricane early Thursday. The spaghetti chart, which is a composite of computer forecast tracks, has made a very noticeable northward shift since 24 hours ago and the National Hurricane Center's track has shifted with it. Water temperatures in the area near landfall are in the mid to upper 80's, meaning Alex can sustain its strength as it nears shore. Right now the storm appears fairly disorganized due to its travels over the Yucatan Peninsula yesterday, but the storm is definitely rotating and strengthening. This storm could become a category 2 hurricane before it hits land, which is not considered a major hurricane but can still inflict quite a bit of damage. A Hurricane Watch has already been issued for the Texas coastline:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

It's not too often that you see the first Atlantic storm of the year become a US-landfalling hurricane, so it will be interesting to see how this develops.

Around here in Louisville, we're experiencing cooler temperatures this morning after a line of storms came through the area last night. There's a chance for some scattered storms this afternoon, but high pressure should set in for the rest of the week and provide sunny skies with temperatures in the 80's. Sounds better than mid 90's with heat index values in the 100's, doesn't it?

6/26 - 12am - Tropical Depression ONE

The first tropical depression of the season has formed in the Atlantic, meaning we could very soon have our first named storm of the year, Alex. Tropical Depression ONE is slated to hit the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow night before tracking northward. There's some debate over whether the storm will take a westward or eastward turn after getting north of the Yucatan, but current models are favoring the westward solution that takes it into Mexico instead of the Gulf Coast. We'll see how this track develops over the next 48 hours, but right now it looks like the United States will miss the brunt of the storm. Let's hope it stays that way! To the left is the current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center and to the right is a compilation of computer model forecast tracks called a "spaghetti" chart.

It's been a hot start to the summer across Kentuckiana, but it appears there will be a break from the heat as a cold front passes through the region on Monday. Not only will we see rain chances around Louisville on Sunday and Monday, but we'll also see temperatures drop into the 80's for the rest of the week. Until then, temperatures in the mid 90's and heat index values above 100 will persist.

Don't forget to watch my 2010 storm chasing documentary in the blog post below. You can also watch a shorter version of it on YouTube.

11/8 - 5:30 - MSU Forecast & Hurricane Ida

Here's your latest Mississippi State University forecast:


Interaction between Hurricane Ida (I'll talk about that storm in a second) and an eastward-moving disturbance should give us some rain tomorrow, most likely in the afternoon and evening hours. Any rain that falls tomorrow evening could be heavy with the infusion of Gulf moisture from Ida, so be ready for some very wet conditions. The rain should taper off by Tuesday morning and leave us with sunny skies for the rest of the week.

Hurricane Ida is positioned between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba right now with sustained winds of 100 mph:


A small jump in speed has moved the storm track quite a bit north over the past day or so, meaning that landfall will most likely happen on the Gulf Coast in AL, MS, or even LA. Current indications are pointing towards Ida being a weak hurricane at landfall, but any increase in northward speed would mean a stronger storm at landfall. A faster storm would also mean more rain and wind for us here in East Mississippi.

The National Hurricane Center's track is in good agreement with the current spaghetti charts (compilations of different computer-projected storm paths):


We'll really have to watch these over the next couple days as Ida takes aim on the Gulf Coast.