8/4 - 2:30pm - Waking Up to Storms Tomorrow

Scattered storms are firing between Evansville and Louisville right now and are slowly trekking eastward. These aren't expected to become severe but some downpours and lightning are certainly a possibility in Louisville as they continue to develop. The chance for storms in the area should remain with us in Kentuckiana through the early evening.

More storms forming in Illinois and Missouri will be our next focus as they move into Kentuckiana during the early morning hours tomorrow. Some of these could be strong to severe since a trough moving through to our north will be bringing faster winds aloft to the area. This means that damaging winds will be the primary threat from these storms should they hold together for us during the early morning. The 6z NAM model run (right) was pretty bullish on these morning storms but the 12z that just came in was more subdued with their intensity. In either case it looks likely that a lot of folks will wake up to storms early tomorrow morning.

Storms could fire up during the afternoon tomorrow if the morning's storms clear out in time for instability to recover during the afternoon. Another limiting factor for this will be the cold front that will be moving through during the day tomorrow. Storms will fire along and in front of that boundary so its speed will determine who gets storms during the afternoon. Right now it looks like Louisville and areas to the south and east will be in the zone for storms tomorrow afternoon and it's worth noting that their coverage won't be anywhere near this afternoon's and tomorrow morning's storms. Both Kentuckiana and West Tennessee are under a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon as these storms fire up in the heating of the day with the cold front in play. Strong winds will again be the main threat here.

After the front moves through on Sunday temperatures will be in the upper 80's to near 90 for the start of the workweek in Kentuckiana and storm chances will be nonexistent until Thursday.

7/18 - 10:40pm - Storm Spotting in Your Own Front Yard

Most storms that erupted today across Kentuckiana and West Tennessee were pretty typical. For the most part they were disorganized and each individual storm didn't last very long but a few did get strong enough for some severe thunderstorm warnings. Unfortunately these storms did pack some nasty cloud-to-ground lightning in the city of Louisville and that sparked some structure fires. Later in the day around 7:30pm just after most storms had exited the city there was a spectacular collision of two outflow boundaries near the I-64/I-264 interchange in St. Matthews. These outflow boundaries, one from Clark County, IN and the other from Shelby County, KY in this case, are just rushes of cold air that come out of other storms and create something akin to a miniature cold front. When these two boundaries collided they created an incredible amount of convergence which birthed a complex of storms right over the city. We're talking about the radar being clear at 7:30pm and there being storms on radar in East Louisville at 7:36pm. This collision also created some weak rotation briefly and dropped quite a base cloud as the complex moved south. The cloud created quite a show in my front yard and I was quite surprised to see such a well-defined (and briefly rotating!) updraft base as I was driving down my driveway this afternoon!

Now that all that excitement is over, we're going to be in for more storms tomorrow and Friday. A cold front will be approaching Kentucky and Tennessee from the Upper Midwest that should create a focus for storm development or at least create storms that will send outflow boundaries toward the south to create more storms. These will largely be powered by the heat and humidity that we'll be seeing over the next couple of days but with the front coming into play there's a possibility that storms may form earlier in the day or even possibly in the morning tomorrow and Friday.

Strong winds will be possible with any storm that forms along with more of the same lightning that we've seen around the region today. Storms could reach severe limits thanks to all the moisture in the environment and the front moving closer so the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow for all of Kentucky and some of Northwest Tennessee. Storms will again be possible on Friday as the front moves through, but we'll dry out behind the front for the weekend.

5/24 - 11:30am CDT - A Repositioning Day

Yep, there's a Moderate Risk for severe storms in parts of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa today according to the Storm Prediction Center. It's too bad because we simply can't chase there due to the amount of trees and vegetation along with a considerable distance from Oklahoma City where we need to be tomorrow night. Here's the plan then: We're going to drive south from Des Moines to Kansas City and then cut west in Kansas for this evening when we could see some overnight storms with lightning in that region.

Tomorrow still looks interesting to say the least. Right out front I need to say that this setup has a very high bust potential because of all the capping that will be in place. Warm temperatures of 10 degrees Celsius and higher at 10,000 feet (700 mb) will act as this capping mechanism because it will inhibit warm air from rising buoyantly into the layers above for thunderstorm formation. With that said, this cap may weaken just enough for a couple of storms to fire up in Kansas tomorrow. They would likely be very isolated due to the capped environment, so that's definitely a plus here.

We all know by now that the models have not been handling moisture very well lately and tomorrow probably won't be any different. The NAM model has dew points of 65 degrees Fahrenheit and higher in Central Kansas at 4pm CDT. If this is overdone and we see dew points between 60 and 65 degrees it still wouldn't be too bad. An area of low pressure smack dab over the middle of Kansas should help bring some of this moisture in and also create a considerable amount of wind shear for rotating storms, especially near the warm front just south of the Nebraska border. Again, this is all if the cap actually breaks tomorrow. If it doesn't we'll be sweating it out in the sun as we watch cumulus cloud towers fail to rise high enough for storms. Tomorrow morning I'll post again with an update on this potential.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates!

5/14 - 12:30am CDT - Great Lightning Tonight in West Texas!

We were treated to a great lightning show just north of Pecos, Texas earlier this evening as a few isolated storms merged together to create a fast-moving line of storms (MCS) that quickly caught up with us. These storms packed some very large hail and high winds at their peak, but luckily we were able to stay ahead of them during that time. The storm kicked up quite a bit of dust in the gust front, so it created low visibilities and an eerie scene in Pecos as it moved through. This comes after a day of fruitless chasing because storms that were expected to form near the Midland, Texas area did not due to a lack of required surface heating. More photos of this storm are available on my Flickr and Facebook albums.

Tomorrow we'll likely be chasing in West Texas again, but this time it may be closer to the Mexican border. Fast winds aloft, moisture at the surface, and winds blowing up the mountains in Mexico from the east should trigger some storms tomorrow afternoon after the ones tonight move through. The setup will be relatively similar to today, but hopefully we're able to get some more stronger isolated storms out of this. Here's some of the high points from the Storm Prediction Center's discussion on tomorrow with their Slight Risk area:

IN THESE AREAS...STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ANDVEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY AGAIN CONGEAL/ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING LINEAR CLUSTERS WITH A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT CONTINUING MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VICINITY.

Get the latest storm chasing updates on my Twitter and Facebook accounts!

8/11 - 10pm - Cooler Weather Comes at a Price

SE Louisville Webcam

How about that cool down going on around the Ohio Valley? Great, isn't it? We topped out at 83 degrees just before 3pm this afternoon in Louisville. The sky was very blue today due to dry air present both aloft and here at the surface. Tomorrow should feature more of the same with slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 80's and pleasant sunshine. That's where the good news ends.

Trough position by Sunday AM

On Saturday a gargantuan trough of low pressure is going to punch its way into the Eastern US. This will disrupt our tranquil weather pattern quite a bit as conditions become favorable for a couple areas of severe storms to form. The first line of storms will likely come through during the early to mid morning hours as the trough begins to dig in and southerly surface winds bring in the initial Gulf moisture. These probably won't be too bad, but frequent lightning, heavy rain, and a few wind gusts appear to be in the cards. Depending on how long these morning storms and their clouds stick around during the later morning and afternoon hours, we could be dealing with a considerable severe weather threat later Saturday afternoon or evening as a the associated surface cold front moves through the region. If dew points do indeed recover into the mid to upper 60's during the day on Saturday and we're able to get a good helping of sunlight, Saturday night will be rough. The storms that could roll through will pack damaging winds and a flash flood risk. I cannot rule out a tornado or two embedded in some of these storms in the evening because of the wind shear that this sharp trough will be ushering in. The biggest risk for severe weather will cover Louisville and points eastward according to the National Weather Service. (Below: Saturday morning storms on the left, Saturday evening severe storms on the right.)

The Storm Prediction Center says the severe risk around the Ohio Valley is conditional at this point due to uncertainty with cloud cover and moisture return to the area (both very valid points), but these factors likely won't be known until Saturday's morning storms clear out. Nevertheless, they've issued a Slight Risk for severe weather for areas just southeast of Louisville and mention that more areas might be added.

After Saturday, I'm off to Mississippi State University for another semester of classes, most of which will be weather-related this time around (yes!). I'm returning to WBBJ-TV in Jackson, TN on August 20th to begin again my Saturday morning weather shift on Good Morning West Tennessee. I've missed my job at ABC 7 like crazy over the summer break, so going back there will be very exciting!

8/7 - 5:15pm - More Storms in Our Future

Did the storms in Louisville wake you up this morning? I slept through them, which is probably a good thing because those that couldn't sleep through them early this morning sure looked tired today. Locations near Downtown Louisville saw rainfall amounts exceed one inch this morning, but most of the suburbs and outlying areas received under an inch. Click the image on the left from NWS Louisville to see a complete map of the rainfall totals from this morning. More storms are possible this afternoon and especially tomorrow as a cold front to our north provides a focus for development.

I've been watching the radar and satellite image for the past couple hours and it appears that ongoing storms dropping southeastward near Indianapolis may send out a some outflow boundaries toward Louisville over the next few hours. Outflow boundaries are like miniature cold fronts created by the cool air flowing out from a thunderstorm's downdraft. They also can cause storms to develop because they are a source of lift and that's why they're so important when forecasting short-term storm development. Since we have a little bit of wind shear and a very unstable atmosphere over the Louisville area right now, a kick from one of these southward-moving outflow boundaries may cause a few isolated storms to develop this evening. Storms may also form without the boundary if another small-scale feature or surface heating gets things going first. So, a vast majority of the area will stay dry, but if you happen to get under one of these wildcard isolated storms get ready for some heavy rain and wind.

There's a much better chance for storms tomorrow as a shortwave disturbance moves through the region. These storms will likely cluster together into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System - complex of storms) and severe weather is possible. These scattered or MCS storms will roll through Louisville sometime tomorrow late afternoon or evening. Damaging winds, frequent lightning, and small hail will be the main threats from these storms. If they cluster together in a line, wind damage probabilities will be higher. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Kentucky, including Louisville, in a 30% Slight Risk area for severe weather tomorrow due to these factors.

5/20 - 11pm CDT - On to the Texas Panhandle Tomorrow!

Even though our supercell thunderstorms south of Brownwood, Texas didn't have any tornadic potential this evening due to weak upper wind support, we had a great time watching them form and photographing the lightning show that started just before dark. The picture on the left was my best shot of the evening... pretty good for a little point-and-shoot camera I'd say!

It looks like we'll be off to the Texas Panhandle tomorrow. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for the area and our current thinking is that moisture will be best around there. We'll get a better handle on all the data in the morning before we set off. For now, I need some rest. I was up extremely late last night editing tornado video from Oklahoma and only got two hours of sleep. My efforts paid off though because that video aired on The Weather Channel this afternoon. It's cool to know that what I shoot with my little HD camera can be seen by millions around the country!

6/17 - 12:30am CDT - Awesome Supercell!

We started off in Northern Oklahoma this morning where there were east winds, but the cap (warm layer of air above the surface) was on too tight and was inhibiting convection. After hours of meandering through the area near Woodward, OK, we finally saw some cumulus clouds getting organized just south of Wichita, KS. We hopped on I-35 toward Wichita and caught up with a cell that was just giving birth to a wall cloud as we arrived. We stayed with this supercell for nearly three hours because it was a training storm, meaning it kept reforming and staying in the same location. It had a rotating wall cloud for a good portion of its life, but no funnel or tornado ever manifested. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning provided a good show for us until another storm cell finally formed and pushed the weakening supercell out of the area.






Looks like our target area tomorrow will be somewhere near Central or Eastern Nebraska, but we'll know for sure tomorrow morning.

5/8 - 5pm - High Winds!!!

High winds are coming into the Louisville area at around 5:30pm. Speeds near 100mph were recorded with this storm in Carbondale, IL and Evansville, IN recorded gusts near 80mph this afternoon. The good news is that the winds are weakening, but I still see potential for 50mph winds here in the next 30 minutes (5:30pm). To top that off, we're under a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH until 8pm.

How about all this rain!? All of the streams in my neighborhood are at capacity right now and I have a feeling that one or more of them will spill into the street soon. Cloud-to-ground lightning has been a major feature of this storm system, so be careful if you have to venture outside.

After the last batch of rain and wind comes through from the Owensboro area in a few minutes, we should clear out a bit, save for some scattered showers tomorrow morning. We should stay out of the rain until at least Wednesday with temperatures holding near 70 for highs.

3/10 - 8pm - Storms and Cooler Weather

We hit 78 degrees at 3:42pm today, which breaks a record of 77 set in 1879. Wow!

Unfortunately, our streak of warm weather is set to end tonight as a cold front and accompanying storms come through. These storms should not be severe due to their post-midnight arrival, but they could be severe in areas to our west later this evening. Overall, there should be a short period of moderate to heavy rain tonight with some lightning and wind.

Get ready for a chilly day tomorrow! After this front passes tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid 40's for both Wednesday and Thursday. A bit of recovery looks likely this weekend, with temperatures rising into the 50's. With this warmth will come a chance of showers for both Saturday and Sunday. 60's may return early next week.

7/18 - 1:45pm - Storms On the Way!?

It's going to be hot today, there's no doubt about that. Tomorrow looks pretty similar, but we could even bump up the temperature a degree or two, to near 95 or 96 degrees. This hot weather will continue for at least the next week, give or take a couple degrees. One thing that will differ next week is the chance for storms.

We could see some strong storms on Sunday afternoon as a trough starts to work its way into our neck of the woods. The SPC has us in a 5% chance of severe weather then, which isn't even a SLIGHT risk. Throughout the early and middle parts of next week, expect storms in the afternoon. These will be scattered for the most part, but its possible that some linear storms could form on a couple of these days. I don't think we'll see anything all that severe, but it's certainly possible that we could get some storms with damaging winds and frequent lightning.

6/22 - 9pm - Storm Chasing Video, Warming up!

It looks like we could touch 90 by later this week with more rain possible tomorrow and after Wednesday. The SPC has placed us just west of a SLIGHT risk for severe weather tomorrow, so storms like we saw today are certainly possible tomorrow. Speaking of which, the storms from today put down about a tenth of an inch of rain in the suburbs with a good helping of lightning. We were even under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for a short period of time as the storms went through.

I just finished editing all the video from my storm chasing trip, so here it is!

6/3 - 9:30pm CDT - Not Much Action

We waited in Central Kansas for a little while until a boundary between warm, dry air from the west and a southeastward propelled boundary with moist air behind it became evident on radar. Thinking that the collision of these two boundaries would spark a line of storms or perhaps a super cell, we traveled to the east of the area of convergence of these boundaries. It fired off a storm alright... one that lasted for a total of 20 minutes and died a pitiful death. Nothing else manifested from this convergence.

A fast moving line of wind-driven storms moved toward us from Western Oklahoma as we moved east towards our hotel in Blackwell, OK. The sky turned black and frequent lightning ensued as we pulled into the parking lot and wind gusts really got going. Just as the last tour guests got in the building, the bulk of the storm came through. The rain was nearly horizontal!

I'm not too optimistic about tomorrow due to a lot of rain cooled air around the Plains, but it is still too early to tell. In any case, I think our target area will be somewhere in either Central or Eastern Nebraska. Maybe tomorrow will be the day...

6/2 - 5:30pm MDT - Impressive Super Cell

Here are some pictures of the super cell that John Belski mentioned on his blog this afternoon:

We chased it from Eastern Colorado into Western Kansas where it died out due to interference from surrounding clouds and cooler air seeping into the surface levels, which killed any instability the atmosphere had. We got hit with pea sized hail during the beginning, but according to spotters, this cell had up to grapefruit sized hail in its later stages. Thank goodness we didn't get hit with that!

Since today's severe potential is pretty much wiped out, we're on our way to WaKeeney, KS. We'll settle in to our hotel there and watch tonight's lightning show that is expected as a cold front sags south into the area.