5/25 - 11:50am CDT - A Grand Finale

Ever since earlier this week we've had our eye on today's setup in Central Kansas. The moisture return, a low developing over Southwest Kansas, and upper-level wind support all kept us coming back to look at the models to see how it was shaping up. For a while it looked like the cap, or a layer of instability-inhibiting warm air aloft, was going to surpress storm formation but now we're seeing a situation where there will be just enough break in the cap to allow for a few isolated supercell storms to form. To get surface heating today to break that cap we need to clear out the clouds across Kansas first. A push of dry air at around 10,000 feet is currently moving from Southwest Kansas to the northeast and is eating these clouds for breakfast as you see in the satellite image to the right. We expect this to keep moving throughout the day and hopefully it will clear out the clouds in time to get some serious surface heating going.

The big story here today is the moisture return. For the first time this week we are seeing a situation where dew points will surge into the mid to upper 60's. Yes! This much-needed moisture will be the fuel for storms this afternoon and should give us a much better show than the moisture-deprived low-precipitation storms we've been seeing lately. While we don't have this moisture in the area quite yet, it's streaming in like crazy right now. Strong easterly and southeasterly winds are blowing this moisture into Kansas from Missouri and Oklahoma and will continue doing so throughout the day. Having mostly easterly winds in Kansas right now is a very good thing because this is creating just about optimal low-level shear for rotating supercell storms.

Speaking of wind shear, this will create quite a bit of helicity, or a corkscrew-like rotation of air in the atmosphere. When you combine helicity with instability in an equation you get the Energy Helicity Index (EHI). As I've said before I think that indicies and parameters can be distracting since human analysis is always better than a formula, but EHI seems to be fairly reliable since it is so basic and relies on two very basic ingredients. This afternoon's EHI values in Kansas will be the highest we've seen out here this season according to the Rapid Refresh model. That's some great news for storm chasers because higher EHI values typically correlate with enhanced tornado potential.

The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe storms today from Iowa to the Texas Panhandle and within that a 5% tornado risk in Kansas. This is quite the change from the previously non-severe "general thunderstorm" outlooks that they had been issuing for today because of the concern that strong capping may inhibit storm development. Today is our last chase day out here for Tour 3 and my last day out here until I come back for a week in June. If we could see some good storms today that'd be a great end to the first part of my trip! Tonight once we're finished chasing we'll be traveling back to Oklahoma City where I'll fly back to Louisville from tomorrow morning.

Follow up-to-the-minute reports on our chase on my Twitter and Facebook accounts!

5/13 - 11:35pm CDT - Switching Tour Groups and Heading West!

After a long drive from just south of San Antonio, TX to Oklahoma City we're looking back at what was a great Tour 1 on Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. Our trip this week took us 2,937 miles (4,726 km) through Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. We saw some great storms and I think everyone had a great time on our exciting chase!


Today was one of our "down days" in Oklahoma City when the guests from the previous storm chasing tour depart on their flights and the guests on our upcoming tour arrive. Tonight we welcomed our guests on Tour 2 and had our orientation before going out to dinner. Tomorrow we'll be on the move to Eastern New Mexico and West Texas to hopefully intercept some storms that will form on the upslope winds of the higher elevations down there. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather down in that area, but our exact target location will be determined tomorrow morning based on the latest data.

My live storm chasing updates on Twitter and Facebook resume tomorrow!

5/6 - 11:45pm CDT - Bust Today in Kansas, Texas Tomorrow

A layer of cirrus clouds really but a damper on our chase today as they blocked storms from forming along a cold front that was in the process of moving through Central Kansas and Northwest Oklahoma. The cold front also accelerated, which didn't help since areas that were prime for development had their warm, moist air swept out quickly. Storms did develop in Northeast Kansas today, but the potential up there for the best isolated storms was considerably less than where we were based on the data we use. Those storms were clustered together as expected, but a couple were able to get out by themselves for a bit and get a little rotation (one dropped a funnel cloud that possibly touched down briefly near Kansas City). At the end of the afternoon we ended up getting on I-35 and making our way south toward Texas where we want to be for tomorrow. Check out the nice sunset in the image on the right from Oklahoma City!

Tomorrow we'll likely be somewhere around South Central Texas, where the dry line will be the focus for storm development. Moisture will be plentiful there since the front we chased near today will not have swept through Texas yet. The dry line will not be terribly sharp in the area in question tomorrow according to the 0z NAM model. We really want that sharp dry line so that it provides good lift for storm development, but we'll see how it pans out tomorrow morning. The Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather outlook has a Slight Risk for areas east of Fort Stockton tomorrow, but my hunch is that it may move east a little bit in their next outlook based on some of the data I've seen this evening. We'll look at the data tomorrow morning and I'll post on here once we're on the road!

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest tomorrow!

5/5 - 11:55pm CDT - Interesting Setup Tomorrow

A cold front moving through the Plains tomorrow will provide the focus for severe storm development during our first chase day. This front has really slowed down on the computer models over the past day or so and this is good because it will allow the warm sector environment to to east of it to become richer with potential due to solar heating. Something the NAM model has been consistently picking up on is the development of a small, sharp shortwave moving through Oklahoma during the afternoon. This shortwave generates a secondary low on that model that creates some pretty good directional shear over Central Oklahoma. Couple that with some incredible instability due to the high moisture in the area and you've got an interesting little severe weather setup to chase. This setup has shifted around from North Texas to East Kansas over the past few model runs, but it seems to be stabilizing over Central Oklahoma for now. The tornado risk tomorrow originally looked very slim due to the lack of good wind speed aloft, but now it is becoming hard to ignore the good directional shear and the great instability. So while it still isn't a high tornado risk, I would venture to say that one or two may touch down if indeed this area of good directional shear sets up.

I'll have an update tomorrow morning on how the setup has evolved and where we'll be targeting. Follow my up-to-the-minute updates on Twitter and Facebook.

5/5 - 6am EDT - Off to Oklahoma City!

This morning I'm getting on my flight to Oklahoma City from Louisville! Once I arrive later this morning I'll be going to our hotel to begin preparing for tonight's orientation meeting with our first group of tour guests for the year. We'll talk about safety, how storm chasing works, and where we'll likely be headed tomorrow for our first chase day. After that we'll go out to dinner and get a good night's sleep for tomorrow's chase.

I'll post about tomorrow's chase setup later this evening. It's going to be a busy day!


Keep up with me for the latest chase updates on Twitter and Facebook this week!
 

5/4 - 11pm EDT - The Chase Begins Tomorrow!

Tomorrow's the day! Early in the morning I'll be departing Louisville for Oklahoma City where I'll meet up with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours for the first tour of the season. My duties this year include briefing our tour guests, assisting our leader Todd with technology and forecasting, and managing the web and social media presence of the company while out there. Each day from tomorrow on to May 26th I'll be generating blog posts filled with forecast discussions, chase recaps, photos, video, and much more. The links to our LIVE streaming video feed, my social media accounts, and more are to the right of this blog post. It's needless to say that I'm eagerly waiting to get on the road!

With three weeks of motels, hotels, and long drives each day, what does a storm chaser pack? The short answer is, well, lightly. While on the road I need to be able to shoot video and photos, access weather data, keep our tour guests apprised of what's going on weather-wise, and update everyone back home on what we're doing via this blog and social media. This sounds like it would require a ton of equipment, but it really doesn't anymore. Even over the past five years that I've been storm chasing I've watched technology march along to the point where I can carry just a few pieces of crucial equipment to get this done. Below is a picture of what I'm packing in my bag equipment-wise right now, minus my laptop and iPad:

The orange Tide detergent and sunscreen bottles stick out like a sore thumb in that photo, but a storm chaser has to have clean clothes and unburned skin right? A few things of note are my HD camcorder (very right in bag), my still camera (bottom center black case), storm chasing books for tour guests to read on the long drives, and all the wires that make my ability to share weather data with tour guests and the world possible.

A lot of folks ask me how I can stand being on the road for so long and why I do this. My passion for weather, a love of travel, and a child-like excitement for learning and teaching others keep me going during these weeks. There's not a day that goes by during the off-season that I don't think about storm chasing and how much fun it is. Much like my work in television, being able to tell our storm chasing tour guests about the weather in the mornings requires a great deal of skill. I've been doing this since I was 17, so in a way I grew up a little bit in Tornado Alley and what I learned during these years has really thrust my knowledge forward to the point where I can now share it with others in a meaningful way. It's going to be an adventurous few weeks as we start the storm chasing season!

Be sure to check back here on the blog for the next three weeks and follow me on Twitter and Facebook for up-to-the-minute progress on our chase.